1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Global geopolitical conflicts drive up the risk - aversion sentiment, the People's Bank of China continuously buys gold, and the Fed is still in the interest - rate cut channel, so the gold price is supported. Suggestions are to focus on Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold [5]. - The raw material for copper is in short supply, and the copper price is more likely to rise than fall. Suggestions are to focus on Zijin Mining and Tongling Nonferrous Metals [5]. - For electrolytic aluminum, supply is restricted, new - energy demand contributes to the increase, and the situation of weak supply and strong demand continues. In terms of profit, the alumina production capacity will be gradually released in 2025, the alumina price will continue to decline, and the profit is expected to recover. Suggestions are to focus on Shenhuo Co., Ltd., Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd., and Tianshan Aluminum Co., Ltd. [5]. - For energy metals, there are frequent reports of production cuts from overseas supply - side, and signals of production cuts or shutdowns in the whole industry will continue to appear. The lithium price has bottomed out and rebounded as the in - depth integration of production capacity has begun. Suggestions are to focus on Ganfeng Lithium Co., Ltd., Tianqi Lithium Corporation, and Huayou Cobalt Co., Ltd. [5]. - China tightens the tungsten supply, and the market continues to rise with reduced volume. Relevant companies are China Tungsten High - tech Co., Ltd. and Xiamen Tungsten Co., Ltd. [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Trend**: Since 2024, the gold price has repeatedly hit new highs. In different quarters from 24Q3 to 25Q3, various factors such as Fed's interest - rate cuts, geopolitical conflicts, inflation, and tariff policies have affected the gold price. In the future, geopolitical, tariff policy changes, market risk preferences, and interest - rate cuts will still impact the gold price [8][13]. - **Supply and Demand**: Gold supply is stable, while global central banks are increasing their gold purchases. In 25Q3, central bank gold - buying demand was 219.85 tons, a 10.2% increase year - on - year. The People's Bank of China restarted the gold - buying channel in November 2024 and has continuously increased its gold holdings [14][21]. - **Stock Recommendations**: Suggestions are to focus on Chifeng Gold, Shandong Gold, Shanjin International, and Zijin Mining. These companies have certain scales and performance flexibility. For example, in the first half of 2025, Shandong Gold's net profit attributable to shareholders was 28.08 billion yuan, a 102.98% year - on - year increase; Chifeng Gold planned to produce 16.0 tons of gold in 2025; Shanjin International's revenue and profit increased significantly; Zijin Mining's net profit attributable to shareholders was 233 billion yuan, a 54% year - on - year increase [22][23]. Copper - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The supply of copper ore is tight, which leads to the increase of copper price and compresses the profit of the smelting end. The copper concentrate treatment and refining charges (TC) have been declining since 2024, reaching - 43.08 US dollars/ton as of December 12, 2025. The difference between LME and COMEX copper inventories has widened, resulting in a short - term regional mismatch in copper supply [26][30]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Supply**: The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is approaching the ceiling, and the output growth is restricted by power - rationing policies. Overseas, power supply is tight, and there are frequent shutdown events, leading to supply shortages [41]. - **Demand**: From January to October 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum demand was 38.7697 million tons, a 5.72% year - on - year increase. The demand for aluminum in the automotive and photovoltaic industries is increasing. Aluminum - bodied new - energy vehicles can increase cruising range and reduce battery costs, and the photovoltaic industry is booming under policy support [42][48]. - **Cost and Profit**: The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity restricts the demand for alumina, and with the release of new production capacity, alumina is in oversupply. The decline in alumina price is beneficial to the profit of the electrolytic aluminum sector. Suggestions are to focus on Shenhuo Co., Ltd., Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd., and Tianshan Aluminum Co., Ltd. [51][52]. Lithium - **Price and Market**: The price of lithium carbonate has bottomed out and rebounded. The market is generally optimistic about the demand for lithium carbonate next year. With the gradual increase in supply, both supply and demand are booming, and the industry profit is gradually improving [56]. - **Stock Recommendations**: Suggestions are to focus on Tianqi Lithium Corporation, Ganfeng Lithium Co., Ltd., Zhongkuang Resources Co., Ltd., Yongxing Special Materials Co., Ltd., and other companies. The performance and profit expectations of these companies vary [60]. Tungsten - **Supply**: China tightens the tungsten supply, and the global supply is restricted. Regulatory strengthening and declining ore grades affect production capacity release, and supply is generally tight. In April 2025, the Ministry of Natural Resources of China issued the first - batch tungsten ore mining total - volume indicator of 58,000 tons [62][66]. - **Stock Recommendations**: Suggestions are to focus on Xiamen Tungsten Co., Ltd., Zhangyuan Tungsten Co., Ltd., China Tungsten High - tech Co., Ltd., Xianglu Tungsten Co., Ltd., and Jiangxi Tungsten Equipment Co., Ltd. [67].

来源：新浪证券-红岸工作室 12月16日，赤峰黄金跌5.38%，成交额19.02亿元，换手率3.64%，总市值587.80亿元。 异动分析 金属铅+黄金概念+金属铜+人民币贬值受益+稀土永磁 1、根据2024年半年报，公司旗下天宝山锌铅铜钼多金属矿主要产品包括锌精粉、铅精粉（含银）、铜 精粉（含银）和钼精粉。其对外销售的定价一般以精矿中所含的金属的市场价格为基准确定。主要是以 上海有色网1#锌锭的价格、1#铅现货的价格，上海期货交易所铜即期合约结算价为基准价，并根据精粉 产品中实际金属含量，综合考虑运输费、检斤费等因素确定结算价格；产品销售主要是通过预收货款的 方式进行，产品销售对象为长期合作的下游大型冶炼企业。 2、公司的主营业务是黄金、有色金属采选业务。公司的主要产品为黄金、电解铜等贵金属、有色金 属。 3、公司位于老挝的万象矿业目前主要从事铜矿开采和冶炼。 4、根据2024年年报，公司海外营收占比为69.11%，受益于人民币贬值。 5、2024年3月8日互动易：公司与厦门钨业合作，共同在老挝推动稀土资源开发。近日通过控股子公司 收购的"老挝川圹省勐康稀土矿"项目，估算矿种为花岗岩风化壳离子吸附稀土矿，矿 ...

Core Viewpoint - The release of the "Standards for Gold Exchange and Upgrade Services" marks a significant step towards the standardization, professionalization, and transparency of the gold exchange and upgrade business in China [1] Group 1: Industry Standards - The new group standard comprehensively regulates the gold exchange and upgrade business, covering aspects such as enterprise qualifications, management practices, service personnel, and equipment requirements [1] - This standard aims to enhance the operational framework and service quality within the gold exchange sector [1]

金市 - 避险溢价收缩 行情：现货黄金最终收于 4304.91美元/盎司，日内仅上涨0.11%，远低于盘初超过1%的涨幅。 动因：乌美谈判取得进展的消息削弱了黄金的避险吸引力，同时部分投资者选择获利了结。 亮点：其他贵金属表现强劲，白银、铂金、钯金均大幅上涨，其中钯金受供应缺口预期推动涨近5%。 ⬛ 油市 - 宏观预期压制地缘风险 核心要点： 地缘紧张局势现缓和迹象，削弱避险需求，金价、油价周一承压；美股在关键数据公布前交投谨慎；市场目光聚焦今日公布的美国非 农就业报告。 隔夜市场总览 周一，市场风险情绪有所回暖，主要受地缘政治出现谈判进展的影响。黄金回吐大部分日内涨幅，原油延续跌势，美股三大指数小幅收低。美元 窄幅震荡，日元因日本央行加息预期继续走强。交易员在周二美国非农数据公布前调整仓位，整体市场处于观望状态。 市场分项解读 汇市 - 日元独秀 行情：美元指数微跌0.09%；美元兑日元下跌0.31%，至155.345。 动因：市场普遍预期日本央行本周五将加息，这为日元提供了持续支撑。美元则在等待本国数据指引。 重点要闻速览 行情：美原油收于 56.82美元/桶，下跌1.08%；布油收于60.56美元/桶， ...

亚太主要股指今日跳水，港股主要股指今日再度下挫，恒生科技指数盘中一度大跌至2.7%。截至收盘，恒生指数收跌1.54%，恒生科技指数收跌1.74%， 双双刷新近期阶段低位。 盘面上，大型科技股持续下挫，商汤-W跌6%，阿里巴巴跌近3%，京东、网易、小米集团均跌超2%，百度、美团均跌超1%以上。腾讯控股今日跌 1.08%，盘中股价跌破600港元/股。 黄金股也全线调整，潼关黄金跌6.92%，紫金黄金国际跌6%，赤峰黄金（600988）跌超5%，珠峰黄金跌超3%，紫金矿业（601899）跌4.41%。 | < △ | [HK]贵金属指数(887674) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 6543.70 -291.32 -4.26% | | | | 资料 | 成分 资讯 | 相关基金 | 月度收益 | | 名称 | | 现价 | 涨跌幅 == | | 潼关黄金 | | 2.690 | -6.92% | | 0340.HK | | | | | 龙资源 | | 6.530 | -6.58% | | 1712.HK | | | | | 紫金黄金国际 | | 148.900 | -6.0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing significant volatility, with gold and silver facing potential selling pressure due to upcoming rebalancing in the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) [11][20]. Group 1: Market Performance - Gold prices recently fell over 1.5%, while Bitcoin dropped below $86,000, and silver saw a significant increase, returning to the $64 mark [1]. - Gold-related ETFs and stocks experienced declines, with the Gold Stock ETF down 4.16%, Gold Stock ETF down 3.91%, and Gold Stock ETF Fund down 3.78% [2]. Group 2: Commodity Index Rebalancing - The BCOM is set to undergo a weight rebalancing in January 2026, which will result in significant selling pressure for gold and silver [11][12]. - The estimated selling pressure for gold is approximately $4.896 billion, while for silver it is around $3.449 billion, totaling nearly $10 billion [20]. Group 3: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Gold has risen from $1,527 to $4,300 over the past seven years, while silver has seen a 107% increase this year, nearing its strongest performance since 1979 [7]. - The market is sensitive to potential selling pressures due to historical high prices, which may lead to short-term declines [20]. Group 4: Economic Indicators - Upcoming economic data, including non-farm payrolls and CPI, will influence market expectations regarding future interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve [22][23]. - The labor market's performance is critical, with predictions of a stable unemployment rate at 4.4% and a consensus forming around the potential for further rate cuts if data shows weakness [22].

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant decline, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 25,235.41 points, down 393.47 points, representing a drop of 1.54% [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index also fell, closing at 5,402.51 points, down 95.91 points, a decrease of 1.74% [2] Market Influences - The decline in the Hong Kong market was attributed to overall low market sentiment and a collective drop in the Asia-Pacific markets, notably the Nikkei 225 index down 1.56% and the KOSPI index down 2.24%, which negatively impacted both A-shares and H-shares [4] - Anticipation of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting on December 18-19, where a potential interest rate hike from 0.5% to 0.75% is expected, may lead to foreign capital returning to Japan, increasing risk aversion and affecting the Hong Kong market [7] Sector Performance - The market saw widespread declines across various sectors, with notable drops in technology stocks such as Alibaba down nearly 3%, and other major players like Xiaomi, JD.com, and Bilibili down over 2% [7] - Gold stocks also faced declines, with Zijin Mining down over 4%, and other gold companies like Shandong Gold and Lingbao Gold down over 3% [7] Capital Flow - There was a net inflow of southbound funds into Hong Kong stocks, amounting to over 80 million HKD by the end of the trading day [8] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the Hong Kong market is at a potential rebound phase, with attractive long-term positioning despite existing risks. The focus remains on the economic fundamentals of China and the inflow of southbound capital [10] - The market is expected to remain volatile until the end of the year, with a consensus on a strong policy opening in the first quarter of the next year, particularly favoring sectors like technology and metals [10]

Group 1 - The article discusses the reliability of market predictions and the concept of "Mr. Market," suggesting that market prices often reflect emotional states rather than rational evaluations of fundamentals [4][5]. - It highlights examples from the A-share market where stock prices peaked before the actual revenue growth of leading companies, indicating a potential predictive nature of stock prices [6][8]. - The article argues against the belief that stock prices can foresee fundamental changes, emphasizing that historical examples often reflect narrative biases rather than true predictive capabilities [10][12]. Group 2 - The relationship between stock prices and fundamentals is explored through the "random walk theory," which posits that stock prices reflect fundamental changes only when informed investors act on new information [20][22]. - It is noted that only a small percentage of informed investors (10%) can accurately assess changes in fundamentals, leading to a disconnect for the majority of investors who may misinterpret market signals [19][21]. - The article concludes that while market movements may seem to predict fundamental changes, they often do not provide actionable insights for uninformed investors [33][35].

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，12月16日，香港恒生指数收跌1.54%，恒生科技指数跌1.74%。果下科技上市首日大涨超 117%。黄金股下跌，紫金黄金国际跌6%，赤峰黄金跌超5%，珠峰黄金跌超3%。 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a collective decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 1.11% to 3824 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 1.51%, and the ChiNext Index dropping by 2.1% [1][2] - The total market turnover was 1.75 trillion yuan, a decrease of 463 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 4300 stocks declining [1] Sector Performance - The precious metals sector saw significant declines, with notable drops in stocks such as Xiaocheng Technology and Western Gold, which fell over 8% and 7% respectively [4][5] - The Hainan sector faced pressure, with New Dazhou A dropping over 9% and other stocks like Hainan Highway and Hainan Ruize also declining [10] - The controllable nuclear fusion sector experienced a sharp drop, with Guoji Heavy Industry and Jingda Co. hitting the daily limit down [8][9] - The retail sector saw gains, with stocks like Yonghui Supermarket and Cuilan Co. hitting the daily limit up, supported by government policies aimed at boosting consumption [12][16] Notable Stocks - Xiaocheng Technology closed at 29.46 yuan, down 8.51%, while Western Gold ended at 26.10 yuan, down 7.61% [5] - Yonghui Supermarket reached a closing price of 5.56 yuan, up 10.10%, following announcements from the central government regarding economic policies [12][16] - The film industry faced declines, with Bona Film Group hitting the limit down and other companies like China Film and Ciweng Media dropping over 9% [6][7] Policy Impact - The central government emphasized expanding domestic demand as a key task for the upcoming year, which is expected to influence market sentiment positively [11][16] - The Hainan Free Trade Port is set to officially start operations on December 18, 2025, which may impact local businesses and investment opportunities [13]