Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges posed by a low-interest-rate environment and suggests various asset allocation strategies to mitigate inflation pressure and enhance returns in such conditions [1][3][7]. Group 1: Financial Environment - The global financial environment is becoming increasingly complex, with many individuals struggling to keep pace [1]. - Japan's zero interest rate policy since 1999 and Europe's negative interest rates since 2014 have led to a shift in asset allocation strategies among residents [1][3]. Group 2: Current Market Conditions - Gold prices have reached $3,300, and Bitcoin has surged to $110,000, while deposit interest rates have fallen below 1%, creating significant pressure on traditional savings [3]. - Major domestic banks have collectively lowered deposit rates, with one-year fixed deposit rates dropping below 1% [3]. Group 3: Asset Allocation Strategies - Personal asset management should follow a "three-part method" for diversified asset allocation [3]. - Short-term liquidity should be managed through money market funds or T+0 cash management products, with annualized rates around 1% [3]. - High-dividend stocks and REITs are recommended for stable income, with average dividend rates of approximately 3% for domestic ETFs and up to 7% for Hong Kong's high-dividend ETFs [5]. - A combination of government bonds, convertible bonds, and high-rated corporate bonds can target around 3% returns, with domestic options including policy financial bond funds and convertible bond index funds [5]. - Long-term guaranteed income can be achieved through life insurance products offering around 3% returns, although recent trends show a decline in guaranteed rates [5][7]. Group 4: Global Asset Diversification - Investors concerned about currency depreciation are advised to consider QDII index funds and gold ETFs for international asset diversification and commodity risk hedging [5]. - The article emphasizes the need for a multi-faceted investment strategy to adapt to the low-interest-rate environment and ensure asset preservation and growth [7].

Core Insights - The financial outlook for individuals born in the Year of the Dragon in 2025 presents a complex scenario with potential for both income growth and expenditure challenges [3][4]. Income Sources - Efforts in the workplace may yield returns, particularly for those in corporate roles, where skill enhancement could lead to promotions and salary increases [3]. - The correlation between professional skill improvement and salary growth is supported by workplace studies [3]. - However, certain industries, especially traditional manufacturing, may face market contraction, impacting income due to reduced order volumes [3]. Expenditure Management - Caution is advised regarding expenditures, as living costs may rise due to price fluctuations, particularly in food and housing [4]. - Economic experts predict potential increases in rent in certain areas due to urban development plans, necessitating careful budgeting [4]. - It is important to limit unnecessary social spending and high-priced non-essential purchases to avoid financial strain [4]. - Investment in self-improvement, such as educational expenses, should not be overly restricted [4]. Financial Planning - A diversified approach to financial management is crucial, with bank deposits being a safe option for maintaining capital stability [4]. - Bond investments are recommended for their predictable returns in varying economic conditions, while relying solely on low-risk investments may yield limited returns [4]. - Engaging in the stock market is an option, but it is essential to select stable blue-chip stocks, keeping in mind the inherent uncertainties of the market [4]. Collaborative Investments - Caution is necessary for those considering collaborative investments in 2025, as they can offer higher returns but also come with significant risks [5][6]. - Thorough due diligence on potential partners' credibility and investment capabilities is essential to avoid failures due to trust issues [6]. - Clear terms and profit-sharing mechanisms must be established to prevent disputes during profit or loss scenarios [6]. - Comprehensive market research on investment projects is critical to avoid impulsive financial decisions based on short-term gains [7].

在人才交流互动方面，《指导意见》指出，支持符合条件的优秀民企高管担任国企外部董事。 促进地方国企与民企协同发展，上海正式出手！ 6月13日，上海市国资委联合上海市工商联印发《关于进一步促进我市地方国有企业与民营企业协同发展的指导意见》（以下简称《指导意见》），旨在进一步推 动上海地方国有企业与民营企业双向赋能、相互促进、共同发展。 《指导意见》指出，鼓励国企民企双向进入、交叉持股，优化企业股权结构，发挥资本纽带作用，发展混合所有制经济。 鼓励国企民企共建联合实验室 《指导意见》提出，在战新产业和未来产业领域特别是上海"3+6"重点产业领域，促进国企民企发挥各自优势，通过技术开源、产业共建等多种方式深化合作。 《指导意见》还鼓励国企和民企组建创新联合体，共建联合实验室，推动科技创新资源共享，加强科技创新联合攻关和科技成果转移转化。鼓励国企民企相互开放 和提供应用场景、试用环境，加大创新产品培育与应用力度。 在相互赋能加速传统产业转型升级方面，《指导意见》鼓励国企与民企构建战略同盟，加快从传统贸易商向供应链组织者转型，鼓励国企与民企共建大宗商品交易 平台。鼓励国企为产业链上下游民企在风险管理、信贷评级等方面提供支 ...

Group 1 - The State Council of China, led by Premier Li Qiang, is promoting the replication of pilot measures from the China (Shanghai) Free Trade Zone and is reviewing new models for real estate development [2] - The U.S. stock market experienced a decline, with major indices falling over 1%, including the Dow Jones down 1.79% and the Nasdaq down 1.3% [2] - International gold prices rose, with spot gold increasing by 1.4% to $3433.35 per ounce, while oil prices also surged, with WTI crude oil up 7.55% to $73.18 per barrel [3] Group 2 - The European stock indices all fell, with Germany's DAX down 1.07% and France's CAC40 down 1.04% [4] - As of the end of May, China's M2 money supply reached 325.78 trillion yuan, growing by 7.9% year-on-year, while M1 increased by 2.3% [5] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has issued new regulations for the management of algorithmic trading in the futures market, effective from October 2025 [6] Group 3 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is seeking public opinions on the "Automobile Data Export Security Guidelines (2025 Edition)" [7] - The Chinese defense ministry has expressed strong dissatisfaction with Japan's recent military provocations and has called for an end to such actions [8] - The official report on the "Luo Mouyu Fall Incident" indicates that the case was ruled a suicide, with investigations ongoing [8] Group 4 - Guizhou Moutai announced an adjustment to its profit distribution plan for 2024, increasing the cash dividend per share from 27.624 yuan to 27.673 yuan [14] - Tencent has clarified that it is not considering acquiring Nexon, dispelling market speculation [15] - Ant Group has changed its legal representative to CEO Han Xinyi, while the core management team remains unchanged [16] Group 5 - Huaxia Happiness's debt restructuring has faced challenges, with a significant portion of shareholders opposing a key proposal [19] - Zijin Mining reported that its largest copper mine, Kamoa-Kakula, is expected to see a production decrease of over 22% year-on-year due to operational suspensions [25] - The company Chasing has denied rumors regarding a failed bet and is actively addressing false information spread about it [27]

除了入场与出场时的理由要相互一致外，入场时，对于时间的要求，也要以始为终。入场时，只是想做 个短线，那出场时，就不能拖太久，不要短线做成长线，长线做成股东。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250613— 世界最近太乱了（+中东局势升级+股市下跌-上午资金面收敛+金融数据偏弱+央行 4000亿买断式逆回购=微下)】 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025.06.13) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 (亿 | 变化量 | 成义童占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | 元) | (亿元) | 比 (%) | | R001 | 1.46 | | VV | 1.74 | -30 | 70663. 67 | -2608. 13 | 89. 89 | | R007 | 1.58 | 10 | | 2.05 | 0 | 7431. 20 | -1142.96 | 9.45 | | R014 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges facing the US dollar as a traditional safe-haven currency amid escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, highlighting cracks in the dollar's global dominance in the financial markets this year [1][3]. Group 1: Dollar's Performance and Market Reactions - The Bloomberg Dollar Index has fallen approximately 8% this year, primarily due to concerns over the US economy's potential growth and the impact of Trump's trade policies [3]. - Following the news of Israel's airstrikes on Iran, the dollar initially dropped but later strengthened against most major currencies, coinciding with a 10% surge in WTI crude oil futures [1][3]. - On Thursday, the Bloomberg Dollar Index hit a three-year low, driven by fears of tariff increases and a deteriorating economic outlook for the US [1][3]. Group 2: Analysts' Insights - Analysts from Vantage Markets and the National Australia Bank express concerns that the dollar's status as a safe-haven asset is weakening due to issues related to economic stability, liquidity, and creditworthiness [1][3]. - The geopolitical implications of the Israeli attacks suggest that the US may be retreating from its leadership role, potentially allowing other nations to pursue their agendas [3][4]. - Market strategist Mark Cudmore notes that the recent dollar rebound is more related to the US's position as the largest oil producer rather than a traditional safe-haven flow [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Wall Street investment banks have increasingly adopted a bearish outlook on the dollar, citing pressures from potential interest rate cuts and slowing economic growth [3]. - Macro hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones predicts a significant depreciation of the dollar, estimating a 10% decline within a year due to anticipated rate cuts [3].

说A股之前，先聊一下昨晚的美股。 | | | Separate of Children's been and | 美 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 涨幅 | | 直琼斯工业平均指数 | 42865.77 | -1.10 | -0.00% | | 迷你道琼斯连续 | 42630.00 | -278.00 | -0.65% | | 内斯达克综合指数 | 19615.88 | -99.11 | -0.50% | | 示准普尔500指数 | 6022.24 | -16.57 | -0.27% | 昨晚公布了最新5月的美国核心CPI月率，录得2.8%，市场预期是2.9%，这个数据说明什么？说明关税战现阶段并没有对美国的物价产生太大的影响，当 然也有可能是因为前面补库存的原因。 | ■ 美国5月未季调CPI年率 | @ ***** | 2.30% | 2.50% | 2.4% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ■ 美国5月季调后CPI月率 | @ O ***** | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.1% | | ■ 美国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The national carbon market has experienced a significant price decline, with carbon emission allowances (CEA) dropping to 68.48 yuan/ton, a decrease of approximately 35% from the historical high of around 105 yuan/ton reached in November of the previous year. This decline is attributed to weakened demand, increased supply expectations, and deteriorating market sentiment. However, long-term prospects suggest that carbon prices may stabilize and rise due to tightening policies, industrial upgrades, and deeper international linkages [1][2][4]. Group 1: Price Decline Factors - The primary demand side for carbon market is thermal power, which has seen a decrease in generation, directly impacting the motivation to purchase carbon allowances. From January to April, total electricity generation, including thermal power, grew by only 0.1% year-on-year, significantly lower than the 6.1% growth in the same period last year [2]. - The manufacturing PMI fell below 50 after April due to trade frictions, leading to a slowdown in industrial electricity growth. Additionally, higher temperatures this year have reduced residential electricity consumption, further impacting demand for carbon allowances [2]. - The introduction of a "zero gap" for new industry allowances and the restart of the voluntary emission reduction market (CCER) have also contributed to downward pressure on prices [3]. Group 2: Long-term Market Outlook - Despite the current price decline, there is a consensus that the long-term upward trend of carbon prices remains intact. The total allowance will tighten annually in line with the "dual carbon" goals, leading to increased scarcity [4]. - The European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), set to impose a "carbon tax" in 2026, is expected to align domestic carbon prices with major markets [4]. - The transition of high-emission industries will require higher carbon price signals, supporting the long-term price increase [4]. Group 3: Financial Innovations and Risk Management - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has proposed the development of carbon futures, which will help companies manage carbon price volatility through hedging strategies [5]. - The establishment of a well-functioning carbon futures market is seen as essential for stabilizing carbon costs and avoiding adverse impacts on business operations due to price fluctuations [5][6]. - The future development of a carbon futures market is viewed as an opportunity for gaining international pricing power in major energy commodities [6].

1.当地时间6月9日至10日，中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰与美方牵头人、美国财政部长贝森特及商务部长卢特尼克、贸易代表格里尔在英国 伦敦举行中美经贸磋商机制首次会议。双方进行了坦诚、深入的对话，就各自关心的经贸议题深入交换意见，就落实两国元首6月5日通话重要共识和巩固 日内瓦经贸会谈成果的措施框架达成原则一致，就解决双方彼此经贸关切取得新进展。 2.据新华社消息，中国商务部国际贸易谈判代表兼副部长李成钢10日晚在英国伦敦说，过去两天，中美双方团队进行了深入交流，就落实两国元首6月5日 通话共识以及日内瓦会谈共识达成了框架。李成钢在中美经贸磋商机制首次会议结束后告诉中外媒体记者，过去两天，中美双方团队的沟通是"非常专 业、理性、深入、坦诚的"。"我们希望这次伦敦会谈取得的进展有利于中美之间进一步增进信任，进一步推动中美经贸关系稳定健康发展，为全球经济发 展注入积极的正能量。"李成钢说。 3.国务院新闻办公室定于2025年6月16日(星期一)上午10时举行新闻发布会，国家统计局新闻发言人、国民经济综合统计司司长付凌晖介绍2025年5月份国 民经济运行情况，并答记者问。 4.据深圳发布，6月11日，深圳市 ...

在政策支持加力与市场热度上涨的双重驱动下，债券市场正不断提升对科技创新支持的适配性。近日， 科技部、中国人民银行等7部门联合制定《加快构建科技金融体制有力支撑高水平科技自立自强的若干 政策举措》（以下简称《政策举措》）提出，健全债券市场服务科技创新的支持机制。 记者从中国人民银行获悉，自5月7日科技创新债券推出以来，截至5月28日已有119家市场机构发行科技 创新债券，总发行量为3391亿元。业内普遍预计，未来我国科技创新债券市场或将迎来较高增速的增 长，引导资金加速流向科技创新领域。 政策力度加大 "做好科技金融工作既是支持科技强国建设的内在要求，同时也是金融机构战略转型的需要，更是金融 管理部门的职责所在。"中国人民银行副行长、国家外汇管理局局长朱鹤新在日前举行的国新办新闻发 布会上表示，近年来，中国人民银行和相关的金融管理部门以及科技部，采取了很多积极措施，健全政 策框架，科技金融的"四梁八柱"已经基本搭建完成，多元金融体系初步形成。 此外，多家银行已成功发行不同规模的科技创新债券，发行的科技创新债券普遍为3年期，票面利率主 要在1.65%至1.67%，其中建设银行、交通银行还分别发行5年期科技创新债券 ...