行 业 报 告 行业点评 《农村公路条例》公布，乡村基建持续推进 强于大市( 维持) 行情走势图 相关研究报告 【平安证券】行业动态跟踪报告*建材*雅下水电项目 开工，利好西藏水泥企业——建材洞察系列之三*强 于大市20250721 【平安证券】行业半年度策略报告*建材*格局逐步优 化，期待"止跌回稳" ——建材行业2025年中期策略报 告*强于大市20250629 证券分析师 郑南宏 投资咨询资格编号 S1060521120001 ZHENGNANHONG873@pingan.com.cn 杨侃 投资咨询资格编号 S1060514080002 BQV514 YANGKAN034@pingan.com.cn 事项： 据新华社7月22日消息，国务院总理李强日前签署国务院令，公布《农村公路 条例》，自2025年9月15日起施行。 平安观点： 研 究 报 告 技术等级要求的公路。意味着待升级改造的农村公路有12.5万公里。根 据《2024年交通运输行业发展统计公报》，2024年全年新改建农村公路 里程达16.41万公里；另据交通运输部数据显示，今年1-5月全国农村公 路完成固定资产投资1311.6亿元，完成新改建农 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong Securities ETF (513090) led the gains with an increase of 4.09% [1] - The Nikkei 225 ETF from E Fund (513000) rose by 3.69% [1] - The Japan Tokyo Stock Exchange Index ETF (513800) increased by 3.61% [1] Group 2 - The E Fund Building Materials ETF (159787) was the biggest loser, declining by 4.45% [1] - The Building Materials ETF (516750) fell by 3.81% [1] - The Building Materials ETF (159745) decreased by 3.17% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a short-term upward trend despite some fluctuations, with a positive outlook for the upcoming months as various industry catalysts emerge [1][2]. Market Overview - The A-share market showed initial volatility but began to rise after 10:30 AM, with most major indices closing in the green, indicating a strong buying force [1]. - The Shanghai Composite Index has officially broken through the high point of November 8, 2024, suggesting the end of the sideways movement since Q4 2024 [1]. - Concerns regarding trade conflicts have eased, and with the policy window approaching in July, the market is expected to maintain a slow upward trend [1]. Future Outlook - There are multiple industry catalysts that could positively influence the market, such as the launch of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream power station and potential recovery in H20 chip exports [2]. - After the index surpasses 3500 points, two potential paths are identified: continuing the upward trend or consolidating before challenging the previous high of 3674 points [2]. - For the market to challenge the previous high, three conditions must be met: implementation of fiscal stimulus policies, continued global easing, and sustained increase in trading volume [2]. Sector Highlights - The A-share market in July is expected to be driven by events, with a likelihood of sector rotation between high and low-performing areas [3]. - Key sectors to watch include: 1. Consumer expansion and domestic demand, with a focus on dairy products, IP consumption, leisure tourism, and medical aesthetics [3]. 2. The trend of robot localization and integration into daily life, with opportunities in sensors, controllers, and functional robots [3]. 3. The ongoing trend of semiconductor localization, focusing on semiconductor equipment, wafer manufacturing, materials, and IC design [3]. 4. The military industry is expected to see a rebound in orders, with signs of recovery in various sub-sectors [3]. 5. The innovative drug sector is anticipated to reach a turning point in fundamentals after a prolonged adjustment period [3]. Market Performance Review - The A-share market experienced fluctuations but maintained an upward trend, with strong buying support observed [4]. - Leading sectors included coal, building materials, construction, steel, and non-ferrous metals, while banking, computing, telecommunications, electronics, and textiles lagged [4].

Core Viewpoints - The market is expected to maintain a strong upward trend with structural opportunities, particularly in sectors such as photovoltaic, batteries, energy storage, construction materials, coal, steel, and non-ferrous metals [2][4][9] - The recent surge in traditional sectors is driven by multiple factors, including the significant investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan in the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project, which is anticipated to boost related industries and overall economic sentiment [3][4][10] Market Overview - On July 19, the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project officially commenced, with a total investment of around 1.2 trillion yuan, leading to a notable increase in related stocks [7][8] - The A-share market showed a positive trend, with major indices experiencing fluctuations but ultimately closing higher, indicating a robust market sentiment [6][12] Sector Analysis - The traditional sectors, including construction materials, engineering machinery, steel, and coal, have shown strong performance, attributed to the positive impact of the hydropower project and supportive government policies aimed at stabilizing growth in key industries [8][10] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on low-valuation leading companies that are directly benefiting from large-scale infrastructure projects, as these are expected to continue their upward trajectory [4][11] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to selectively reduce holdings in stocks that have seen significant increases while maintaining positions in those that are lagging, as market rotation opportunities may arise [4][11]

Market Overview - On July 22, A-shares saw collective gains across major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.62% to close at 3581.86 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.84% to 11099.83 points, and the ChiNext Index up by 0.61% to 2310.86 points [2][3] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 192.86 billion yuan, an increase of 20.15 billion yuan from the previous day, with over 2500 stocks rising and more than 100 stocks hitting the daily limit for the second consecutive day [2] Sector Performance - The sectors that performed well included hydropower, engineering machinery, coal, steel, pork, and liquor, while sectors such as gaming, banking, and PCB concepts saw declines [2] - Specifically, the coal sector experienced a rapid increase in the afternoon, while the banking sector mostly adjusted downwards [2] International Market - In the U.S. stock market on July 22, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 179.37 points (0.4%) to 44502.44 points, while the S&P 500 increased by 4.02 points (0.06%) to 6309.62 points. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell by 81.49 points (0.39%) to 20892.69 points [4][5] - In Europe, the FTSE 100 index rose by 10.82 points (0.12%) to 9023.81 points, while the CAC 40 index in France fell by 53.81 points (0.69%) to 7744.41 points, and the DAX index in Germany decreased by 265.90 points (1.09%) to 24041.90 points [4][5] Commodity Prices - International oil prices fell on July 22, with WTI crude oil dropping by $0.99 to $66.21 per barrel (1.47% decline) and Brent crude oil decreasing by $0.62 to $68.59 per barrel (0.90% decline) [4][5] Regulatory Developments - The "Rural Road Regulations" were published, set to take effect on September 15, 2025, aimed at promoting high-quality development of rural roads and supporting rural revitalization and agricultural modernization [6][7] - The regulations emphasize government-led planning, responsibility for county-level governments, and the need for improved road network quality and safety measures [6][7] Industry Initiatives - Shanghai's "Next-Generation Display Industry High-Quality Development Action Plan (2026-2030)" was issued, aiming to build a comprehensive industry system and enhance competitiveness by 2030 [9] - The plan focuses on developing two major technology routes and addressing four core areas to create a complete and resilient industrial chain [9] Gaming Industry - The National Press and Publication Administration approved seven imported games in July, indicating ongoing regulatory activity in the gaming sector [10] Foreign Exchange Market - The Deputy Director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange stated that there are no significant expectations for the appreciation or depreciation of the RMB, with the market remaining stable and rational [11] Financial Sector Insights - The People's Bank of China reported a rebound in real estate loan growth, with a total balance of real estate loans reaching 53.33 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.4% [13] - The report highlighted an increase in both real estate development loans and personal housing loans, indicating a gradual recovery in the real estate sector [13] Institutional Perspectives - Tianfeng Securities noted a significant pullback in bank stock prices since July 11, but maintains a positive long-term outlook for bank valuations due to expected improvements in net interest margins and non-interest income [14] - CITIC Construction pointed out that China's controllable nuclear fusion industry is advancing rapidly, with ongoing project financing and policy support [15][16] Capital Flow - The coal industry saw a net inflow of 2.588 billion yuan, while the internet services sector experienced a net outflow of 4.759 billion yuan [18] - Major stocks with significant net inflows included Changcheng Military Industry and Guizhou Moutai, while Northern Rare Earth and Wolong Electric Drive faced substantial outflows [19]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of the "anti-involution" policy in various industries, aiming to reduce excess capacity and stimulate domestic demand, which is expected to improve corporate profits and commodity prices [1][2] - The current economic recovery in China is supported by policy measures such as "anti-involution," expansion of domestic demand, and urban renewal, which are being actively implemented across key industries [1][2] - The article highlights that the Producer Price Index (PPI) has been declining for 33 consecutive months, indicating a need for structural adjustments in the industrial sector to reverse this trend [1] Group 2 - The previous round of supply-side capacity reduction occurred around 2016, primarily affecting upstream industrial sectors, while the current "anti-involution" initiative has a broader scope, impacting traditional consumer goods, machinery, and emerging industries [2] - The challenge lies in balancing long-term goals with short-term tasks in the "anti-involution" process, as rapid capacity reduction could harm short-term economic growth while failing to address the underlying issues could lead to more "zombie" companies [2][3] - To mitigate the impact of capacity reduction on employment, the article suggests promoting urban renewal and expanding the service sector to create more job opportunities [3] Group 3 - The article discusses the need for strict control over new capacity while phasing out outdated capacity, as previous local government practices of indiscriminately attracting investment led to overcapacity [4] - Establishing a unified national market is crucial to reduce local government intervention in manufacturing investments, which can help avoid redundant investments and local protectionism [4] - The article stresses the importance of creating a conducive environment for market mergers and acquisitions, as well as improving bankruptcy systems to facilitate the exit of underperforming enterprises [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the given text. Core Viewpoints - "Anti-involution" policies are accelerating at the macro level, and inflation expectations are starting to bottom out. At the industry level, since June, "anti-involution" has been advanced mainly through self-discipline, and some industries have formed certain price increase expectations [4][7]. - By reviewing historical similar policy environments, the current "anti-involution" situation has similarities with the policy backgrounds in 2016 and 2021. Although this round may be advanced more from the industry self-discipline level, it is expected that the price increase expectations of key industries will be realized, and attention should be paid to the investment opportunities brought about by the improvement of profit expectations in related industries [4][23]. - Last week, the convertible bond market rose, and the valuation reached a high level. Five convertible bonds announced redemptions, and the total scale of bonds to be issued is about 7 billion yuan [1][24]. Summary by Directory 1. "Anti-involution" Historical Review and Current Concerns - **Policy Progress**: Since the Politburo meeting in July 2024 proposed to prevent "involutionary" vicious competition, to the official proposal by the Central Financial and Economic Commission on July 1, 2025, to govern the disorderly low - price competition of enterprises in accordance with laws and regulations and promote the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity, the "anti-involution" policy has continued to exert force [4][7]. - **Industry Trends**: Since June, industries such as automobiles, photovoltaics, and most upstream cyclical industries have launched initiatives or collective production reduction plans by leading enterprises, and the market associates this round of "anti-involution" with the price increase logic under the production capacity optimization in 2016 and 2021 [4][7]. - **Historical Comparison**: In 2016, the supply - side reform focused on the coal and steel industries. In 2021, due to the demand for meeting the dual - control targets of energy consumption and the rise in coal prices, power and production restrictions were implemented in many places, and the PPI increased significantly. The current situation has similarities with these two historical periods, and the "anti-involution" this time may be more concentrated in the middle and lower reaches, with a high proportion of private enterprises [4][23]. 2. Market Review: Convertible Bonds Rose Weekly, and Valuation Reached a High Level - **Weekly Market Conditions**: Last week, the main stock indexes rose, and the convertible bond market followed suit. There are 477 issued but unexpired convertible bonds, with a balance of 648.241 billion yuan. Some bonds have not yet been listed for trading, and there are currently no bonds to be issued [24]. - **Valuation Performance**: The weighted average closing price of convertible bonds increased by 0.68% compared with the previous Friday. The premium rates of high - rated and large - scale convertible bonds increased. The convertible bond market's 100 - yuan par - value fitted conversion premium rate increased by 1.32 pct compared with the previous Friday [32]. 3. Terms and Supply: Five Convertible Bonds Announced Redemptions, and the Total Scale of Bonds to be Issued is about 7 Billion Yuan - **Terms**: As of July 18, 5 convertible bonds announced redemptions, and Lingkang Convertible Bond's board of directors proposed a downward revision. Some bonds announced non - early redemptions, and some announced that they were expected to meet the redemption conditions. 4 convertible bonds announced no downward revisions, and 12 were expected to trigger downward revisions [1][50]. - **Primary Market**: Last week, Xizhen and Yongxi Convertible Bonds were listed, with a total scale of 1.685 billion yuan. This week, Libo Convertible Bond will be listed, with a scale of 750 million yuan. There were no new convertible bond issuances. Last week, Tonglian Precision added a board of directors' plan, and the total scale of bonds to be issued is about 7 billion yuan [1][53].

Market Overview - The market experienced a strong upward trend today, with all three major indices reaching new highs for the year. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges recorded a total trading volume of 1.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 193.1 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.62%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.84%, the ChiNext Index by 0.61%, and the CSI A500 Index by 0.84% [1][3]. Foreign Investment and Market Sentiment - A significant improvement in foreign investment has been observed, with a net increase of 10.1 billion USD in domestic stocks and funds in the first half of the year, reversing the trend of net reductions over the past two years. This indicates a growing willingness of global capital to allocate to A-shares. Additionally, the number of new accounts opened in the Shanghai Stock Exchange reached 12.6 million in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 32.8% [3]. Industry Analysis: Photovoltaic Sector - The photovoltaic industry is expected to see marginal improvements due to the "anti-involution" policies aimed at addressing overcapacity and disorderly competition. The policies have been clearly defined in recent government meetings, focusing on traditional high-energy-consuming industries and new productive sectors like photovoltaics and automobiles [3][4]. - The photovoltaic sector has the highest proportion of loss-making companies and industry concentration among the "anti-involution" industries, making it a prime candidate for accelerated capacity clearance and financial improvement [4]. Industry Analysis: Coal Sector - The coal sector has seen a significant increase, with the coal ETF rising by 8.25% amid rumors of production limits from the National Energy Administration. However, these rumors have not been officially confirmed. The demand for coal has surged due to high temperatures, with daily coal consumption reaching 6.33 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.42% [7][9]. - On the supply side, coal imports have decreased significantly, with June imports at 33.04 million tons, the lowest in nearly two years. The "anti-involution" policies are expected to further control and optimize coal production capacity in the medium to long term [7][9]. Industry Analysis: Construction and Materials - The construction and materials sectors are benefiting from new demand driven by major projects like the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project, which has a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan. The project is expected to stimulate demand across multiple industry chains, including infrastructure and materials [10]. - The "anti-involution" policies are also being implemented in the construction sector, with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announcing a new round of measures to stabilize growth in key industries, including construction materials and steel [10][11]. Investment Opportunities - Investors are encouraged to consider ETFs related to the photovoltaic sector (ETF 159864), coal sector (ETF 515220), and construction materials (ETF 159745) as potential investment opportunities, given the favorable market conditions and policy support [5][9][11].

Core Viewpoint - The construction of the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower station, a significant infrastructure project worth 1.2 trillion, has led to a surge in the capital market, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high of 3581 points. This rally is characterized as a "short squeeze" where short-sellers are forced to exit their positions, resulting in many investors missing the opportunity to enter the market [1][4]. Market Dynamics - The recent rally in the market has been driven by specific sectors related to the hydropower station, such as civil explosives, cement, engineering machinery, and coal mining, with some stocks experiencing consecutive daily limit-ups [1][3]. - Despite the index reaching new highs, there has been a continuous net outflow of funds from the market, indicating that the rise in the index does not reflect an influx of new capital [5][7]. Sector Analysis - The current market is characterized by a competition for existing funds rather than an influx of new capital, leading to a situation where new concepts absorb funds from older themes, causing underperformance in previously hot sectors like banking, pharmaceuticals, technology, and robotics [7][8]. - The emergence of new policies may ignite new themes and concepts, potentially diverting funds away from the Yarlung Tsangpo concept, leaving retail investors trapped [8]. Commodity Outlook - Commodities related to infrastructure, such as steel, coal, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials, are highlighted as having potential for continued growth due to their connection to the ongoing infrastructure projects and the government's focus on stabilizing growth in key industries [8][9]. - The recent announcement from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology regarding growth stabilization plans for key industries is expected to benefit over-supplied sectors like steel and coal, improving their profit margins [8][11]. Investment Strategy - The article suggests that while the Yarlung Tsangpo project is currently a hot topic, it may not be wise to chase this concept at this stage. Instead, focusing on commodities with longer-term growth potential is recommended, as they are likely to provide more stable investment opportunities [11][12]. - Historical comparisons are made to previous market cycles, indicating that the current environment may resemble past trends where commodities experienced significant price increases over extended periods, suggesting a potential for substantial gains in the coming months [11][12][13].

"Anti-involution" drives glass and soda ash surging with substantial short covering "反内卷"驱动玻璃纯碱空单减仓大幅上涨 Investment consulting business qualification: CSRC License [2012] No. 669 从业资格号 Qualification No: F03122523 投资咨询号 Consulting No.: Z0019832 典 Yu Dian 余 2025/07/22 从业资格号 Qualification No: F03099559 投资咨询号 Consulting No.: Z0020955 陶存辉 Tao Cunhui 从业资格号 Qualification No:F03100815 投资咨询号 Consulting No.: Z0021807 薛 原 Xue Yuan 从业资格号 Qualification No: F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.: Z0013632 桂晨曦 Gui ChenXi Event 事件点评 ...