Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.1%, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.2% and 1.2%, respectively[1] - International oil and gold prices surged, driven by geopolitical tensions and supply concerns, leading to gains in leading oil and gold stocks[1] - The latest CCL index reported at 145.54, a weekly increase of 0.63%, indicating a recovery in Hong Kong residential prices[1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. durable goods orders for November increased by 5.3%, surpassing Bloomberg's forecast of 3.1% and the previous value of -2.1%[3] - In China, the transaction volume of new homes in 30 major cities reached 1.19 million square meters, a year-on-year decline of 32.3%[3] Sector Performance - The pharmaceutical sector saw most stocks decline, while Junshi Biosciences (1877 HK) rose due to concerns over Nipah virus infections in India[4] - The automotive sector experienced a decline, with January retail sales expected to be around 1.8 million units, a month-on-month decrease of 20.4%[5] - Gold prices reached a new high, surpassing $5,000 per ounce, boosting demand for gold products and leading to gains in related stocks[5]

整个市场呢还是比较疲软，指数呢是探底回升，感觉还很强势，但有3400多家个股在下跌，尤其是这个 有色板块，他还搞了一个冲高回落，不少的兄弟在这个方向都比较看好，那接接下来这个方向该怎么 办？和讯投顾余兴栋分析，其实机构比较简单，拿着死扛等一等就行，但咱们散户朋友不一样，都想着 要赚一点快钱，那这个市场一旦没了方向，咱们就容易抓瞎，今儿个我把这些事情搬开揉。所以跟大家 详细的讲一讲，在指数不创新高的情况下，咱们的手上个股该怎么来应对它？我先跟大家说一个结论， 就说4200点呢在春节前很难突破的这个位置其实非常的明显，就说上方他不希望我们的指数涨的太猛， 涨的太快，尤其是不希望现有的存款搬家的资金能一窝火的杀入到股市当中来，那样我们的整个市场会 陷入癫狂的状态。其实我本人呢也不希望这样的情况出现，我们呢还是希望有一个慢牛的行情，也就是 说跟着公司的业绩慢慢的成长，这样的行情呢他走的更远，那种猛涨猛跌的行情，呢咱们散户一般是拿 不住的，那指数不往上冲，核心操作思路其实只有一个，就是说看我们手上的标的啊它的质地有没有改 变，是不是当前能扛住指数调整的一些方向，那现在哪些方向才是主线板块？如果不是这些方向，我们 该怎么 ...

原油日报 2026 年 1 月 27 日 原油现货市场日报 | 极端天气 | 美国大部分地区遭遇严寒天气，提振供暖需求并中断供应，推动该国天 | | --- | --- | | | 然气价格延续惊人涨势，午间飙升 40%。 | | | 周末席卷美国的大规模冬季风暴严重冲击油气生产商，以及将原材料加 | | | 工成汽油至塑料等各种产品的工业工厂 | | 贸易物流 | 印度石油公司高管周二表示，在减少俄罗斯原油进口后，这家印度最大 | | | 炼油企业已承诺从四月起的新财年增加巴西原油采购量。 | | | 一船石脑油已抵达委内瑞拉海岸，这是自华盛顿方面扣押该国领导人尼 | | | 古拉斯·马杜罗以来首批运抵的货物，也是重振这个南美国家原油生产 | | | 的关键一步。 | | | 知情人士透露，哈萨克斯坦卡拉恰甘纳克油田运营方、西方能源巨头已 | | | 在国际仲裁案中败诉，需向该国政府赔偿高达 40 亿美元。 | | | 欧佩克+代表们表示，在应对全球供应过剩和地缘政治风险浪潮之际， | | | 该组织周日开会时预计将坚持下月维持石油产量稳定的计划。 | | | 国际与当地企业高管及律师表示，委内瑞拉拟议的石 ...

【期现行情】 【冠通期货研究报告】 原油日报：原油震荡下行 发布日期：2026年1月27日 【行情分析】 1月4日，欧佩克+发布声明，决定维持2025年11月初制定的产量计划，在2026年2月和3月继续暂 停增产。原油需求淡季，EIA数据显示，美国原油库存累库幅度超预期，同时汽油库存累库幅度继续 超预期，整体油品库存继续增加。美国原油产量小幅减少，仍位于历史最高位附近。美国能源部长 赖特在世界经济论坛上呼吁将全球石油产量提高1倍以上，以满足不断增长的需求并防止能源贫困。 近期国际货币基金组织将2026年世界经济增速上调0.2个百分点，寒冷天气推动柴油取暖需求，需求 担忧有所缓解。不过，全球原油浮库高企，原油仍是供应过剩格局，EIA最新的1月月报上调了2026 年原油供应过剩幅度。雪佛龙正加大对于委内瑞拉原油的运输。目前委内瑞拉对于全球原油供需影 响不大。美国财政部23日宣布针对伊朗实施新一轮制裁措施，涉及多家与石油相关的公司和多艘油 轮。目前美国并未排除采取军事行动的可能性，美航母打击群已抵达中东地区，伊朗官员称伊武装 力量已进入全面戒备状态，伊朗地缘风险再次升温，伊朗原油产量较大，关注伊朗局势，另外，泽 连 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 伊朗地缘"灰犀牛"：哪些价格受影响？ 主要观点 伊朗骚乱似有平息，但"灰犀牛"的地缘风险仍存。本篇报告主要概述伊朗的 基本经济国情，侧重自然资源、优势产业和出口结构。 ❖ 一、伊朗近期发生了什么？ 经济困境引发各地抗议，逐步升级为伊朗全国大规模骚乱，伤亡人数是过往二 十余年动荡之最。去年 11 月开始，伊朗多地因物价上涨、货币贬值等问题发 生抗议，随后扩散至全境并出现暴力骚乱和大规模伤亡，期间全面断网 8 天。 1 月下旬局势趋于缓和。1 月 21 日伊朗官方称近期骚乱事件导致 3117 人死亡。 地缘冲突风险仍存。1 月 22 日特朗普表示美国"大型舰队"正驶向伊朗周边。 从经济地理位置看，伊朗对霍尔木兹海峡具有强大控制力。霍尔木兹海峡是全 球能源贸易的咽喉要道，流经该海峡的石油和其他液体燃料贸易量约占全球消 费量约 20%，占全球海运贸易量约 27%，流经该海峡的 LNG 贸易量约占全球 LNG 贸易量的 20%，约占全球天然气贸易量的 9%。 ❖ 二、伊朗的主要自然资源 1、石油：全球探明原油储量第三，目前日产量约 320 万桶/日，出口量约 180 万桶/日。伊朗 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic futures market on January 22nd had more declining contracts than rising ones. Platinum dropped over 4%, PTA over 3%, and other commodities also had significant drops. On the upside, silver rose over 7%, and palm oil over 2%. Different futures contracts showed various price trends and capital flows, and each commodity had its own supply - demand and market - influencing factors [5][7]. 3. Summary by Commodity Copper - The Shanghai copper futures opened high and closed low. The exchange adjusted the price limit and margin ratio. Supply was affected by a strike at a Chilean copper mine, and TC/RC fees were weak. The expected domestic electrolytic copper production in January decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. Demand was affected by the approaching Spring Festival and high copper prices. The C - L spread was converging, and the overall supply might improve marginally. In the short term, copper prices were expected to fluctuate at a high level, and there was a possibility of a cooling market in the second half of the year [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened low and closed high. The average price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased. The production rate was high, and the inventory was decreasing. The export tax - rebate policy for batteries was adjusted, and the demand for batteries was strong. After a period of shock adjustment, the price was expected to be strong, but caution was needed due to high volatility [12]. Crude Oil - OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan. The US crude oil inventory increased, and the demand was in the off - season. The US called for an increase in global oil production. The demand concern was alleviated, but the global crude oil floating storage was high, and the supply was in surplus. Geopolitical risks in Iran and other regions increased, and the price was expected to fluctuate [13][14]. Asphalt - The asphalt production rate decreased, and the expected production in January 2026 decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The downstream industry's production rate mostly declined, and the inventory rate decreased slightly. The supply of Venezuelan heavy oil was restricted, which affected domestic asphalt production. It was recommended to use the reverse arbitrage strategy before March [15][17]. PP - The downstream PP production rate increased slightly, and the enterprise production rate decreased. The petrochemical inventory was at a low level. The cost was affected by the rising oil price. The PP price was expected to be strong in the short term, but the sustainability of the rebound was questionable. The L - PP spread was expected to decline [18]. Plastic - The plastic production rate decreased, and the downstream production rate was at a low level. The petrochemical inventory was low. New production capacity was put into operation. The price was expected to be strong in the short term, and the L - PP spread was expected to decline [19][20]. PVC - The PVC production rate decreased slightly, and the downstream production rate increased. The export orders increased due to the export tax - rebate policy. The social inventory was high, and the real - estate market was still in adjustment. The PVC price had limited upward momentum [21]. Coking Coal - Coking coal opened high and closed low. The Mongolian coal customs clearance was high, and the domestic production increased. The inventory of coking coal mines and downstream enterprises increased, and the winter - storage replenishment slowed down. The coking coal price was expected to be weak in the short term [22][23]. Urea - Urea opened low and closed high. The spot price was stable with a slight increase. The supply pressure increased as gas - based plants resumed production. The compound fertilizer factory's production rate increased, but the downstream demand was insufficient. The inventory was decreasing, and the price was expected to fluctuate at a high level [24].

智通财经APP获悉，随着今年并购交易活动强势启动，矿业巨头嘉能可在并购专家眼中成为2026年最有 可能被收购的欧洲企业。在媒体本月对30家风险套利交易台、交易员和分析师进行的一项非正式调查 中，正在与力拓(RIO.US)洽谈合并、以打造全球最大矿业公司的嘉能可被提及8次。 此外，调查结果显示，来自广泛行业的公司纷纷上榜，反映出随着全球经济动能增强，潜在收购方正将 目光投向更广阔的领域。法国生物科技公司Abivax SA被提及5次。该公司股价在2025年因潜在收购前景 以及积极的药物试验结果而暴涨逾1600%。英国石油(BP.US)、德国在线外卖订餐服务平台Delivery Hero SE、英国廉价航空公司EasyJet Plc和英国老牌房地产开发商Great Portland Estates则各被提及4次。 受访者还表示，全球并购环境正变得日益活跃。数据显示，今年以来截至1月23日，全球已宣布的并购 交易总额已超过630亿美元，是2025年同期记录金额的三倍以上。Neuberger Berman首席策略组负责人 约瑟夫·罗特表示："并购交易量尚处于回升的初期阶段。相比以往几年更偏向特定行业，如今的前景似 乎正 ...

智通财经APP获悉，1月27日港股市场，北水成交净卖出6.35亿港元，其中港股通(沪)成交净卖出13.74亿港元，港股通(深)成交净买入7.39亿港元。 北水净买入最多的个股是腾讯(00700)、中国人寿(02628)、长飞光纤光缆(06869)。北水净卖出最多的个股是中国移动(00941)、紫金矿业(02899)、盈富基金 (02800)。 | 十大成交活躍證券 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 排名 | 股票代碼 | 名稱 | 買入金額 (HKD) | 賣出金額 (HKD) | | 1 | 09988 | 阿里巴巴 - W | 2.334.368.700 | 2,391,597. | | 2 | 00700 | 騰訊控股 | 2,128,731,950 | 1,259,649, | | 3 | 00941 | 中國移動 | 521,496,700 | 2,114,277, | | র্ব | 00981 | 中芯國際 | 1,007,532,750 | 1,093,525, | | 5 | 02628 | 中國人壽 | 1,116,347,980 | ...

欧洲加大了拒绝从俄罗斯进口石油的力度，并且将打击的范围不断扩大。这一举措让一些极度依赖俄罗斯能源的国家，如匈牙利，面临着巨大的压力与挑 战。 根据路透社的报道，欧盟决定彻底切断与俄罗斯石油的所有联系，不仅禁止成员国直接进口俄方的石油，还要求停止从印度等国家手中购买俄罗斯的石油产 品。这意味着，欧洲不仅在打击俄罗斯，实际上还在扩大制裁的范围，开始打击那些与莫斯科能源有密切联系的国家。事实上，欧盟计划断绝与俄罗斯石油 的关系早在去年就已提出，进入2026年，这一趋势愈发明显。 此外，三个月后，欧盟还将开始逐步全面禁止俄罗斯的天然气供应。预计到2027年前后，欧洲与俄罗斯的能源纽带将彻底切断。 值得一提的是，泽连斯基最近在达沃斯的演讲中猛烈批评了欧尔班，后者愤怒回应，声称要在一百年内阻止乌克兰加入欧盟。这种言论显得有些讽刺，因为 根据目前的民调，欧尔班很有可能会在今年的匈牙利大选中落败，那么一百年的承诺，究竟能有多少实际意义呢？ 从决心与力度上来看，欧洲确实下了大力气。毕竟，在俄乌冲突爆发前，欧洲对俄罗斯的能源依赖极为严重。俄方曾试图利用能源作为威胁手段，逼迫欧洲 停止对乌克兰的援助，其中最具代表性的威胁就是那句切 ...

Group 1 - The Mexican state oil company, Pemex, has suspended its plan to transport crude oil to Cuba [3] - A tanker named "Swift Galaxy," registered under the Panama flag, was scheduled to load oil and gas off the coast of Mexico in early January and arrive in Cuba by the end of the month, but this transport task has been canceled [3] - Since 2023, Mexico has been supplying oil and fuel to Cuba to address its energy crisis, maintaining a consistent volume of oil shipments [3] Group 2 - Mexican President López Obrador stated that the amount of crude oil supplied to Cuba has remained unchanged and has not exceeded historical averages [3] - There are indications that the Mexican government considered completely halting oil shipments to Cuba to avoid friction with the Trump administration [3]