Market Overview - The market experienced a strong upward trend on Tuesday, with the ChiNext Index rising nearly 2% and surpassing the 2400-point mark [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3609.71 points, up 0.33%, with a trading volume of 793.6 billion [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11289.41 points, up 0.64%, with a trading volume of 1009.6 billion [1] - The ChiNext Index closed at 2406.59 points, up 1.86%, with a trading volume of 495.8 billion [1] Sector Performance - The CRO, steel, CPO, and advanced packaging sectors saw significant gains, while insurance, pork, banking, and agriculture sectors experienced declines [1] - Pharmaceutical stocks collectively surged, with CRO and innovative drug sectors leading the gains, and several stocks like Chenxin Pharmaceutical hitting the daily limit [2] - CPO and computing hardware stocks showed strong fluctuations, with companies like Zhongji Xuchuang reaching historical highs [2] Institutional Insights - According to Jifeng Investment Advisory, the current policy cycle is shifting towards a positive stance, suggesting that A-shares and the economy may see upward turning points [4] - Investment recommendations include focusing on high-growth sectors such as semiconductors, consumer electronics, artificial intelligence, robotics, and low-altitude economy [4] - Fuyong Fund noted that cyclical and blue-chip sectors are benefiting from "anti-involution" policies and large-scale investments in hydropower projects, leading to a significant increase in market expectations for industrial product prices [4] Corporate News - Zhu Huarong has been appointed as the Party Secretary and Chairman of China Changan Automobile Group [5] - Zhao Fei has been appointed as the Deputy Secretary and Director, nominated as the General Manager candidate [5] - Other appointments include Tan Benhong, Jia Lishan, Deng Wei, and others in various leadership roles within the company [5] Agricultural Sector Initiatives - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs plans to enhance the cultivation of agricultural brands and improve consumer confidence [7] - Efforts will include developing management standards for agricultural brand cultivation and promoting high-quality agricultural products through marketing campaigns [7][8] - The ministry aims to strengthen the marketing service capabilities for agricultural products and optimize consumption channels [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the Trump administration's trade protectionism and tariffs on global trade and investment, highlighting the increasing uncertainty and potential economic repercussions for various industries and companies [1][2][10]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on Global Economy - The overall tariff level in the U.S. has reached its highest since the 1930s, approximately six times higher than when the Trump administration took office, with an average tariff of just under 13.5% [1]. - By the end of 2027, the global economic impact of these tariffs is projected to reach $2 trillion, significantly higher than pre-trade war levels [2]. - The uncertainty caused by tariffs is expected to delay investment decisions, with companies adopting a wait-and-see approach until clarity on trade policies is achieved [2][10]. Group 2: Corporate Earnings and Economic Indicators - Major U.S. corporations like General Motors, Dow, and Tesla have experienced earnings erosion due to tariffs, although significant inflation impacts have not yet materialized [4]. - The GDP growth rate for the second quarter is predicted to slow to around 1%, with non-residential investment contributing minimally to economic growth [8][9]. - The decline in oil prices from $80 to approximately $65 per barrel has helped mitigate inflation, despite the ongoing tariff challenges [5]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Effects - Companies reliant on the U.S. market, such as NatureSweet Tomatoes, are facing significant challenges due to new tariffs on imports from Mexico, which have stalled expansion plans [11][12]. - The automotive industry, particularly in Japan, is also feeling the strain from tariffs, with a notable 27% drop in car shipments to the U.S. in June [15]. - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs is leading to a broader decline in foreign direct investment (FDI), with a projected decrease in global FDI following an 11% drop in 2024 [13][16]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The potential for a prolonged period of trade stagnation and investment fatigue is highlighted, with companies likely to delay restructuring decisions due to unclear policy directions [16]. - The overall economic indicators related to trade are expected to show contraction in both growth and volume this year [16].

Core Insights - The event highlighted the high-quality development of brands in Shandong, emphasizing innovation as a key driver for growth and the integration of manufacturing processes and product connections [1] Company Summaries - **Furida**: Focuses on creating skincare products tailored for Chinese consumers, having developed the first domestic hyaluronic acid essence and a series of micro-ecological skincare products. The company holds over 170 patents and has achieved a sales scale of 1 billion yuan within five years [2] - **Hisense**: After ten years of development, Hisense has successfully created the RGB-Mini LED technology, with a key component being the "Xin Chip H7," which offers three times the light control precision of traditional LCDs. This innovation has positioned Hisense as a leader in display technology [3] - **Huaguang Guoci**: Innovates in high-end ceramics, developing various advanced materials and techniques, including lead-free glazes and antibacterial glazes, while promoting traditional Chinese culture through brand initiatives [4] - **Luhua**: Invests heavily in R&D to produce high-oleic peanuts, achieving over 75% oleic acid content. The company’s unique 5S physical pressing process enhances nutritional retention and flavor, contributing to the agricultural sector's growth [4] Industry Trends - The "chain development" model in Shandong is fostering growth not only for individual companies but also for the entire industry chain, with Hisense leading investments in 25 companies in 2024 and 28 in 2025 [5] - Furida is establishing a multi-brand group operation and a dual beauty ecosystem, with a projected annual output value of 4 billion yuan from its new innovation park [5] - Luhua's approach extends from edible oils to agricultural products, creating a full industry chain that enhances both economic and ecological benefits [6] - The collective efforts of these companies illustrate Shandong's commitment to high-quality development through technological strength, brand enhancement, and ecological synergy, with an increasing number of Shandong brands gaining international recognition [6]

Report Overview - There is no information about the industry investment rating [1][3][46][47] Core Views - The report focuses on the impact of the "anti-involution" policy on upstream prices, covering production and service industries, and also provides an overview of industry data and trends [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry Events - In the production industry, the National Conference of Heads of Industry and Information Technology Departments emphasized consolidating the effectiveness of comprehensive rectification of the "involution-style" competition in the new energy vehicle industry, strengthening governance of key industries such as photovoltaics, and promoting the construction of a mandatory national standard system in the industrial and information technology fields [1] - In the service industry, the national childcare subsidy system implementation plan was announced. Starting from January 1, 2025, families with one, two, or three children can receive an annual subsidy of 3,600 yuan per child until the child reaches the age of 3 [1] Industry Data - **Upstream**: International oil prices fluctuated and declined; egg prices rose slightly; glass prices increased [3][47] - **Midstream**: The PX operating rate decreased [3] - **Downstream**: The sales volume of commercial housing in third-tier cities remained at a low level; the number of domestic flights during the summer increased [3] Industry Credit Spreads - The credit spreads of various industries showed different trends. For example, the credit spread of the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry decreased from 60.41 last week to 58.97 this week; the credit spread of the mining industry decreased from 39.96 last week to 38.75 this week [46] Key Industry Price Indicators - The prices of various industries also showed different trends. For example, the spot price of corn was 2,332.9 yuan/ton on July 28, with a year-on-year change of 0.00%; the spot price of eggs was 6.8 yuan/kg on July 28, with a year-on-year increase of 3.82% [47]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the announcement of a new trade agreement between the US and the EU, which includes a 15% tariff on EU products entering the US and a commitment from the EU to invest an additional $600 billion and purchase $750 billion worth of US energy products [1][4][7] - The agreement has received mixed reactions from EU leaders, with German Chancellor Merz expressing that a no-deal scenario would have been more damaging for Germany, while Italian Prime Minister Meloni described the agreement as "sustainable" [4][7] - French Prime Minister François Bérou criticized the agreement as a "surrender" by the EU, highlighting concerns over the imbalance it creates, particularly for French agriculture, which faces a 15% tariff on products sold to the US while benefiting from zero tariffs on US agricultural imports [4][7] Group 2 - The internal divisions within the EU regarding the tariff agreement reflect differing interests between the political and business sectors, complicating the EU's ability to manage disputes [7][11] - The 15% tariff is expected to increase costs for EU exports to the US, potentially reducing competitiveness and impacting the development of the EU's industrial chain [7][11] - The agreement postpones negotiations on tariffs related to steel, aluminum, and chips, which are critical areas for both parties, to avoid complications that could derail the talks [11][12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - High - frequency economic data shows production end heat differentiation, with the steel industry chain recovering while asphalt, PX, and tire operating rates decreasing. The real - estate market is marginally improving, with increases in both commercial housing and land transaction areas. Price trends are also differentiated, with crude oil falling, coking coal rising significantly by 32.6%, rebar prices increasing, and non - ferrous metals remaining stable. Among agricultural products, pork, eggs, and vegetables are rising, with eggs having a large increase. Shipping index trends continue to diverge, with domestic SCFI and CCFI falling and BDI continuing to rebound sharply. Short - term focus should be on the implementation of new round of stable growth stimulus policies, the recovery of the real - estate market, and the impact of international geopolitical changes [2][33]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Production: Steel Industry Chain Recovers, Asphalt, PX, Tire Operating Rates Decrease - In the week of July 25, the coke oven capacity utilization rate increased by 0.71 pct, blast furnace operating rate remained flat, and rebar production increased by 2.9 tons. Meanwhile, the petroleum asphalt operating rate decreased by 4.0 pct, chemical PX operating rate decreased by 0.81 pct, PTA remained flat, and the operating rates of automobile all - steel tires and semi - steel tires decreased by 0.08 pct and 0.12 pct respectively [3][9][10]. 3.2 Demand: Real - Estate Market Marginally Rebounds, BDI Continues to Rebound Rapidly - In the week of July 20, the commercial housing transaction area rebounded, the inventory - to - sales ratio increased, land transaction area rebounded, and the residential land transaction premium rate increased. Movie box office increased by 215 million yuan compared with the previous week, and automobile manufacturers' daily average retail and wholesale sales increased by 11,000 and 12,000 vehicles respectively. In the week of July 25, the shipping index SCFI fell by 3.3%, CCFI fell by 3.24%, and BDI continued to rebound significantly by 9.9% [3][15][21]. 3.3 Price: Crude Oil Falls, Coking Coal and Rebar Rise Significantly, Non - Ferrous Metals Remain Stable - In the week of July 25, Brent crude oil price fell by 1.21% to $68.44 per barrel, coking coal futures price rose by 32.6% to 1,236.5 yuan per ton. LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by +0.02%, - 0.27%, and +0.18% respectively, and domestic rebar futures price rose by 5.07%. The overall price of agricultural products slightly decreased but remained in a seasonal upward trend, with pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits changing by +1.02%, +6.83%, +1.15%, and - 1.24% respectively compared with the previous week [3][23][26]. 3.4 Logistics: Subway Passenger Volume and Flight Volume Decrease, Peak Congestion Index in First - Tier Cities Continues to Fall - In the week of July 25, subway passenger volumes in Beijing and Shanghai decreased, domestic and international flight volumes decreased, and the peak congestion index in first - tier cities continued to fall [4][29][30]. 3.5 Summary: Coking Coal and Rebar Prices Rise, BDI Continues to Rebound Rapidly - High - frequency economic data shows production end heat differentiation, real - estate market marginal improvement, price trend differentiation, and shipping index trend divergence. Short - term focus should be on new policies, real - estate market recovery, and geopolitical changes [33].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Report's Core Views - The exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB is expected to fluctuate within the range of 7.15 - 7.20 in the next week. Investors are advised to use options to hedge tail risks in the current low - volatility environment [2]. - The release of the child - rearing subsidy policy is expected to stimulate related sectors and drive the stock index up. The outcome of the China - US talks and the Politburo meeting this week will affect the stock index trend [3]. - For treasury bonds, although prices have recovered, there are still risks. The market is sentiment - driven, and attention should be paid to key events such as the FOMC, China - US talks, and the Politburo meeting this week [4][5]. - In the short term, the commodity market is volatile. It is recommended to wait for the sentiment to stabilize before trading. In the long term, focus on the implementation of anti - involution policies and changes in the fundamentals of some commodities [6]. - The price of the EC in the shipping index is expected to be slightly bearish in the short term, but there is support at the bottom. Pay attention to the actions of shipping companies, spot quotes, and cease - fire negotiations [7][8][9]. - For precious metals, the medium - to - long - term trend may be bullish, while the short - term volatility of London gold may increase. Maintain the idea of buying on dips [10][11][12]. - Copper prices may decline slightly in the short term as the anti - involution fever subsides. Attention should be paid to macro events this week [13]. - Aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level; alumina may experience high - volatility trading, and investors can consider inter - month arbitrage; casting aluminum alloy is expected to maintain a high - level shock, and arbitrage operations can be considered when the price difference changes [14]. - Zinc prices are expected to be weak in the short term. It is appropriate to short on rallies [16]. - Nickel and stainless steel are expected to fluctuate widely and be bearish in the long term. Focus on the callback of nickel - iron and the recovery of nickel salt demand [17]. - Tin prices may decline slightly as the anti - involution fever fades. Pay attention to macro events in late July [18]. - For lithium carbonate, pay attention to the situation of mines and important meetings this week [19]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to have support at the bottom. Pay attention to the July meetings [20][21]. - Lead prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. Wait for the peak season and changes in macro and downstream purchasing sentiment [22]. - For steel products, the upward trend may not end. Pay attention to the actual demand for steel, new tariff policies, and the implementation of anti - involution policies [23]. - Iron ore prices are mainly affected by non - fundamental factors. The short - term fundamentals are expected to remain stable, but the volatility may increase near the meeting [24]. - For coking coal and coke, the market may return to rationality after the sharp decline. Further upward movement requires super - expected macro policies. Pay attention to the Politburo meeting and China - US trade negotiations [25][26][27]. - For ferroalloys, the short - term risk of chasing high is high. Pay attention to the implementation of policy expectations and control risks [27][28]. - Crude oil prices are expected to continue the sideways - shock pattern. Geopolitical risks need to be focused on [29][30]. - For PX - PTA, it is recommended to expand the TA processing fee on dips [30][31]. - For MEG - bottle chips, it is recommended to wait and see before the implementation of anti - involution policies. The bottle chip price fluctuates with the cost [32][33]. - For methanol, it is recommended to wait and see as the market is macro - driven [34]. - For PP, the supply - demand pressure is not fundamentally alleviated, and the upward space is limited. Pay attention to downstream demand and macro policies [35][36]. - For PE, the short - term pressure is large, but the downward space is limited. The demand is expected to pick up in the future [37][38][39]. - For PVC, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term as the anti - involution sentiment is unstable [39][40]. - For pure benzene, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term as the market is affected by macro emotions [40][41]. - For styrene, it is recommended to wait and see after the important macro meetings this week due to the expected increase in supply and decrease in demand [43]. - For fuel oil, the short - term drive is downward, and the market remains weak [44]. - For low - sulfur fuel oil, it is recommended to wait and see as the supply is low and the demand is slightly improved [44]. - For asphalt, the short - term price is in a shock pattern, and the peak season is expected in the long term. Pay attention to the implementation of anti - involution policies [44][45]. - For urea, the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly, with support at the bottom and pressure at the top [45][46]. - For soda ash, the supply - demand pattern is strong supply and weak demand. Pay attention to cost fluctuations and policy implementation [46]. - For glass, the market will continue to game between reality and expectations. Pay attention to policy implementation and the approach of the delivery logic [47]. - For logs, the market is expected to have low - volatility shocks in the short term. Pay attention to risk control [47]. - For pulp, pay attention to the adjustment risk. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing high after the breakthrough [48]. - For caustic soda, pay attention to the delivery logic of the 09 contract and the pressure on the supply side in the long term [48][49]. - For live pigs, with high supplies, it is recommended to short on rallies and appropriately arrange reverse spreads [50]. - For oilseeds, pay attention to China - US trade negotiations. The supply of imported soybeans is abundant in the short term, and there may be a supply gap after December [51]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures RMB Exchange Rate - **Market Review**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1729 at 16:30 yesterday, down 50 basis points from the previous trading day, and closed at 7.1787 at night. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was reported at 7.1467, down 48 basis points [2]. - **Important Information**: Trump said he would never want a weak US dollar, and Powell may be ready to cut interest rates. The European Central Bank is not in a hurry to cut borrowing costs [2]. - **Core Logic**: The independence of the Fed is being challenged. If Powell is removed, it may trigger the depreciation of the US dollar. It is recommended to use options to hedge risks. Without major events, the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB will fluctuate between 7.15 - 7.20 [2]. Stock Index - **Market Review**: The stock index fluctuated strongly yesterday. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose 0.21%. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 450.29 billion yuan [3]. - **Important Information**: China - US economic and trade talks began in Stockholm. The child - rearing subsidy policy will be implemented from January 1, 2025, with a subsidy of 3,600 yuan per child per year [3]. - **Core Logic**: The market has digested last week's positive news. The child - rearing subsidy policy is expected to drive the stock index up. The outcome of the China - US talks and the Politburo meeting this week will affect the stock index [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Review**: Treasury bond futures opened higher, then fell and rose again, closing sharply higher. The central bank net injected 32.51 billion yuan. The capital price improved, with DR001 at around 1.45% and GC001 at around 1.35% [4]. - **Important Information**: A national industrial conference proposed to expand domestic demand and promote industrial development [4][5]. - **Core Logic**: The market is sentiment - driven. Although the bond price has recovered, there are still risks. Pay attention to key events this week [4][5]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The precious metal market was weak on Monday. COMEX gold 2508 fell 0.65% to $3,314 per ounce, and silver 2509 fell 0.09% to $38.33 per ounce. The medium - to - long - term trend may be bullish, while the short - term volatility of London gold may increase. Maintain the idea of buying on dips [10][11][12]. - **Copper**: The Shanghai copper index fell slightly on Monday. The short - term price may decline as the anti - involution fever subsides. Pay attention to macro events this week [13]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level; alumina may experience high - volatility trading, and investors can consider inter - month arbitrage; casting aluminum alloy is expected to maintain a high - level shock, and arbitrage operations can be considered when the price difference changes [13][14]. - **Zinc**: The Shanghai zinc main contract fell 1.05% on the previous trading day. The short - term price is expected to be weak, and it is appropriate to short on rallies [16]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The Shanghai nickel main contract fell 1.5%, and the stainless steel main contract fell 0.73%. The medium - to - long - term trend is bearish. Focus on the callback of nickel - iron and the recovery of nickel salt demand [17]. - **Tin**: The Shanghai tin index fell slightly on Monday. The short - term price may decline as the anti - involution fever fades. Pay attention to macro events in late July [17][18]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate futures limit - down on Monday. The spot market of the lithium - battery industry chain is weak. Pay attention to the situation of mines and important meetings this week [19]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon and polysilicon futures fell sharply on Monday. The "anti - involution" varieties have corrected. There is support at the bottom. Pay attention to the July meetings [20][21]. - **Lead**: The Shanghai lead main contract fell 0.24% on the previous trading day. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate. Wait for the peak season and changes in macro and downstream purchasing sentiment [22]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The price fell sharply during the day yesterday and stabilized at night. The upward trend may not end. Pay attention to actual demand, tariff policies, and the implementation of anti - involution policies [23]. - **Iron Ore**: The recent price fluctuations are mainly affected by non - fundamental factors. The short - term fundamentals are stable, but the volatility may increase near the meeting [23][24]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke fell sharply. The fourth round of price increases has been implemented. The market may return to rationality, and further upward movement requires super - expected macro policies [25][26][27]. - **Ferroalloys**: The prices of ferroalloys rose due to policy expectations and coal - price support. The short - term risk of chasing high is high. Pay attention to the implementation of policy expectations and control risks [27][28]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: International crude oil futures rebounded slightly overnight. The price increase was driven by the macro - positive sentiment of the US - EU trade agreement and geopolitical risks [29][30]. - **PX - PTA**: PX - PTA has been oscillating strongly recently. The supply of PX may increase in August. PTA may reduce production to support prices. It is recommended to expand the TA processing fee on dips [30][31]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The price of MEG has been strong recently, and the supply has increased. It is recommended to wait and see before the implementation of anti - involution policies. The bottle chip price fluctuates with the cost [32][33]. - **Methanol**: The methanol market is macro - driven, and it is recommended to wait and see [34]. - **PP**: The supply - demand pressure of PP is not fundamentally alleviated, and the upward space is limited. Pay attention to downstream demand and macro policies [35][36]. - **PE**: The short - term pressure of PE is large, but the downward space is limited. The demand is expected to pick up in the future [37][38][39]. - **PVC**: The anti - involution sentiment of PVC is unstable. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [39][40]. - **Pure Benzene**: The supply and demand of pure benzene have both increased. The short - term market is affected by macro emotions. It is recommended to wait and see [40][41]. - **Styrene**: The supply of styrene is expected to increase and the demand to decrease in August. The short - term market is affected by macro emotions. It is recommended to wait and see after important macro meetings this week [43]. - **Fuel Oil**: The supply of fuel oil has improved, and the demand has rebounded. The short - term drive is downward, and the market remains weak [44]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is low, and the demand is slightly improved. It is recommended to wait and see [44]. - **Asphalt**: The supply of asphalt has decreased slightly, and the demand is in the off - season. The short - term price is in a shock pattern, and the peak season is expected in the long term. Pay attention to the implementation of anti - involution policies [44][45]. - **Urea**: The price of urea has been weak recently. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly, with support at the bottom and pressure at the top [45][46]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply of soda ash is in a narrow - range fluctuation, and the demand is weak. The supply - demand pattern is strong supply and weak demand. Pay attention to cost fluctuations and policy implementation [46]. - **Glass**: The supply of glass has slightly increased, and the demand is in a weak balance. The market will continue to game between reality and expectations. Pay attention to policy implementation and the approach of the delivery logic [47]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: The futures price of live pigs fell 1.81%. The supply is high, and the demand is general. It is recommended to short on rallies and appropriately arrange reverse spreads [50]. - **Oilseeds**: The price of US soybeans is weak, and the domestic soybean meal price has declined. The supply of imported soybeans is abundant in the short term, and there may be a supply gap after December. Pay attention to China - US trade negotiations [51].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows structural differentiation, with the cyclical sectors cooling down and the non - cyclical sectors showing different performances. Different commodities have different trends and influencing factors, and the market is affected by both domestic and international news, policies, and market sentiment [2][3][8] - For different commodities, specific analysis and operation suggestions are provided based on their fundamentals, including supply, demand, and inventory [13][20][40] Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: On Monday, the A - share market showed a trend of opening higher, turning down, and then rising. The major indexes generally rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.12%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.44%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.96%. The non - bank sector rose, while the cyclical sectors such as coal and shipping fell. Most of the four major stock index futures contracts rose, and the basis of the main contracts showed seasonal repair [2][3] - **News**: In June, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 4.3% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline compared to May. The US and the EU reached a 15% tariff agreement, and the EU will increase investment in the US and purchase US military and energy products [3][4] - **Funding**: On July 28, the A - share trading volume decreased slightly, with a total turnover of 1.74 trillion. The central bank conducted 4958 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 3251 billion yuan [5] - **Operation Suggestion**: As the major indexes maintain an upward trend after breaking through the annual high, but approaching the interim report disclosure period, it is necessary to verify the substantial improvement of profits. It is recommended to gradually take profits on the long positions of IM futures and replace them with a small amount of short positions of MO put options with an exercise price of 6000 in the 08 contract to reduce the position [5] Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures closed up across the board, with the 30 - year main contract up 0.56%, the 10 - year main contract up 0.18%, the 5 - year main contract up 0.13%, and the 2 - year main contract up 0.04%. The yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally declined [6] - **Funding**: The central bank conducted 4958 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on July 28, with a net investment of 3251 billion yuan. The money market became looser at the end of the month [6][7] - **Operation Suggestion**: The central bank increased reverse repurchase investment, and the decline in commodity prices improved the bond market sentiment. However, the short - term market may still fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, pay attention to the money market and incremental policies. The 10 - year Treasury bond has certain allocation value. The 2509 - 2512 contract spread may tend to rise in the short term [7] Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Market Situation**: The US and the EU announced a trade agreement, which boosted the US dollar index. Gold prices fell for four consecutive days, with international gold closing at $3314.78 per ounce, down 0.67%. International silver prices were flat at $38.14 per ounce [8][9] - **News**: The US Treasury plans to borrow $1.007 trillion in the third quarter, a significant increase compared to the April forecast. Trump expressed disappointment with Putin and threatened to impose "secondary sanctions" on Russia [8][9] - **Market Outlook**: Before August 1, more countries may reach trade agreements with the US, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in July is low, which will support the US dollar and suppress gold prices. Gold prices may test the support of the 60 - day moving average. Silver prices are driven by ETF funds, and it is recommended to buy on dips [9][10] Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping - European Routes - **Spot Price**: As of July 28, the prices of major shipping companies were in a certain range. The SCFIS European route index fell 3.5% month - on - month, and the US West route index fell 46.98% month - on - month [11] - **Fundamentals**: As of July 28, the global container shipping capacity increased by 7.9% year - on - year. The PMI data of the eurozone and the US in June showed the economic situation [11] - **Market Logic**: The futures market oscillated downward, and the main 10 - contract closed down 1.62%. The uncertainty of prices in August has decreased, and it is expected to show an oscillating trend in the future. Spot prices will not fluctuate significantly in the short term and are expected to decline slowly in the long term [12] - **Operation Suggestion**: It is expected to be weakly oscillating, and it is recommended to short the 08 and 10 contracts on rallies [12] Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: As of July 28, the average price of SMM electrolytic copper decreased, and downstream consumption willingness was low. High copper prices inhibited downstream procurement [13] - **Macro**: The domestic "anti - involution" policy affects copper from both demand and supply aspects, but there is a risk of macro - sentiment ebbing in the short term [13] - **Supply**: The supply of copper concentrates may be restricted, and the production of refined copper in June decreased slightly month - on - month but increased year - on - year. It is expected to increase in July [14] - **Demand**: The processing and terminal demand for copper showed a certain trend. The weekly operating rate of copper rod production decreased, but the terminal demand still had some resilience [15] - **Inventory**: COMEX, LME, and domestic social inventories all increased [16] - **Market Logic**: Macro - sentiment may ebb, and the copper market shows a short - term supply - demand double - weak situation. However, domestic policies and low inventories support copper prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the "anti - involution" policy and overseas tariff policies [17] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to oscillate between 78000 - 80000 [17] Alumina - **Spot**: On July 28, the spot prices of alumina in different regions remained unchanged [17] - **Supply**: In June, the production of metallurgical - grade alumina in China increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the operating capacity increased [18] - **Inventory**: As of July 24, the port inventory and the total registered volume of warehouse receipts increased [18] - **Market Logic**: The futures price fell due to the ebbing of market sentiment. Although the supply of bauxite in Guinea may be tight and the warehouse receipt inventory is low, the increase in production capacity will push up the supply. It is recommended to be cautiously bearish, with the main contract expected to operate between 3000 - 3400 [19] Aluminum - **Spot**: On July 28, the average price of SMM A00 aluminum decreased, and the premium decreased [19] - **Supply**: In June, the production of electrolytic aluminum decreased month - on - month, and the proportion of molten aluminum may decline in July. The operating capacity is expected to remain high [20] - **Demand**: Downstream industries are in the traditional off - season, and the operating rates of various industries are relatively stable or slightly decreased [20] - **Inventory**: The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic main consumption areas increased, while the inventory in bonded areas decreased. The LME inventory increased [20][21] - **Market Logic**: The "anti - involution" policy sentiment cooled down, and aluminum prices decreased slightly. The supply is stable, the demand is weak, and the inventory may increase. It is expected to oscillate widely between 20200 - 21000 [21] Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: On July 28, the average price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 decreased [21] - **Supply**: In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased, but it is expected to decline in July due to the off - season and other factors [22] - **Demand**: The demand in June was under pressure, and the market transaction was sluggish. The downstream maintains a low - inventory procurement strategy [22] - **Inventory**: The social inventory increased, and the inventory in some areas was close to full [22] - **Market Logic**: The price of aluminum alloy decreased slightly, and the market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with the demand side being more prominent. It is expected to oscillate weakly between 19600 - 20400 [23] Zinc - **Spot**: On July 28, the average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots decreased, and the spot transaction was not smooth [23] - **Supply**: The supply of zinc ore is expected to be loose, but the production growth rate in May and June was lower than expected. The production of refined zinc increased in June and is expected to continue to increase in July [24] - **Demand**: The operating rates of primary processing industries are differentiated. The galvanizing industry is relatively stable, while the die - casting and zinc oxide industries are in the off - season [25][26] - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory increased, while the LME inventory decreased [26] - **Market Logic**: The supply is expected to be loose, the demand is weak, and the inventory may enter the accumulation cycle. It is expected to oscillate between 22000 - 23000 [27] Tin - **Spot**: On July 28, the price of SMM 1 tin decreased, and the market was in a "price but no market" situation [27] - **Supply**: In June, the import of tin ore and tin ingots decreased. The supply of tin ore is currently tight, but Myanmar's production is expected to resume in late August [28] - **Demand and Inventory**: The operating rate of the soldering tin industry decreased in June. The demand in the photovoltaic and electronics industries is weak. The LME and domestic inventories increased [28][29] - **Market Logic**: The market sentiment weakened, and tin prices fell from a high level. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to macro - changes and inventory changes after Myanmar's resumption of production [29] Nickel - **Spot**: As of July 28, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel decreased [30] - **Supply**: The production of refined nickel is at a relatively high level and is expected to increase slightly in July [30] - **Demand**: The demand for electroplating and alloys is relatively stable, while the demand for stainless steel and nickel sulfate is weak [30] - **Inventory**: The overseas inventory is high, the domestic social inventory increased slightly, and the bonded area inventory remained stable [31] - **Market Logic**: The macro - sentiment turned weak, and the nickel market is affected by supply and demand and macro - factors. It is expected to adjust within the range of 120000 - 128000 [32] Stainless Steel - **Spot**: As of July 28, the prices of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan showed different trends [33] - **Raw Materials**: The price of nickel ore is loose, and the price of nickel iron is weak and stable. The chromium iron market is stable [33] - **Supply**: The estimated production of stainless steel in July decreased month - on - month [34] - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased slowly, and the warehouse receipt decreased [34] - **Market Logic**: The stainless steel price oscillated weakly. The macro - sentiment ebbed, the supply is under pressure, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate between 12600 - 13200 [35] Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: As of July 28, the spot prices of lithium salts increased, but the futures market limit - down, and the basis narrowed [35] - **Supply**: In June, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and it is expected to continue to increase in July. However, there are some supply disturbances [36] - **Demand**: The demand is relatively stable, with some differentiation among different manufacturers. The demand in July is expected to increase slightly [36] - **Inventory**: The whole - chain inventory is increasing, but the inventory growth rate slowed down last week [37] - **Market Logic**: The market is affected by macro - sentiment and news, and the trading core has shifted to the ore end. It is expected to oscillate widely. It is recommended to wait and see [38] Commodity Futures - Ferrous Metals Steel - **Spot**: Steel prices decreased, and the basis strengthened. The prices of billets, rebar, and hot - rolled coils all decreased [40] - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of coking coal and iron ore has different trends. The profit of steel mills has increased [40] - **Supply**: The production of molten iron remains high, and the production of steel has changed slightly. The production of rebar and hot - rolled coils has different trends [40] - **Demand**: The apparent consumption of five major steel products remains high, and the inventory is stable [41] - **Inventory**: The inventory of major steel products is at a low level and remains stable. The inventory of rebar decreased slightly, while the inventory of hot - rolled coils increased slightly [41] - **Viewpoint**: Affected by market sentiment, steel prices decreased. The supply and demand are basically balanced, and it is recommended to pay attention to the support levels of 3300 yuan for rebar and 3400 yuan for hot - rolled coils [41] Iron Ore - **Spot**: The prices of mainstream iron ore powders decreased [42] - **Futures**: As of July 24, the prices of iron ore futures decreased [42] - **Basis**: The cost of different iron ore warehouse receipts is different, and the basis of different varieties is also different [42] - **Demand**: The daily output of molten iron, blast furnace operating rate, and steel mill profitability are at a relatively high level [42] - **Supply**: The global shipment of iron ore increased, and the arrival volume at ports decreased [42] - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased slightly, the daily port clearance volume decreased, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory increased [44] - **Viewpoint**: The iron ore price oscillated downward. The supply and demand are relatively balanced, but the "anti - involution" speculation may end, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions and short on rallies [44] Coking Coal - **Futures and Spot**: The coking coal futures limit - down, and some spot prices began to fall. The market sentiment declined [45] - **Supply**: The resumption of coal mine production is slow, and the supply is still tight. The price of imported coking coal decreased [45][47] - **Demand**: The coking plant's production is stable, and the downstream demand for molten iron is high [46][47] - **Inventory**: The overall inventory is at a medium level, with the coal mine inventory decreasing and the downstream inventory increasing [46][47] - **Viewpoint**: The coking coal futures limit - down due to position - limit intervention. The supply and demand fundamentals are improving, but the previous increase has fully digested the positive factors. It is recommended to conduct hedging operations, be cautious about shorting on rallies, and conduct arbitrage operations [48] Coke - **Futures and Spot**: The coke futures limit - down, the factory price increased, and the port price decreased. The fourth - round price increase of some coke enterprises has partially landed [49][50] - **Profit**: The average profit per ton of coke is negative, but there are differences among different regions [49] - **Supply**: The production of coke is difficult to increase due to the slow resumption of coal mine production and enterprise losses [49][50] - **Demand**: The downstream demand for molten iron is high, providing support for coke [50] - **Inventory**: The inventory of coke enterprises and ports decreased, and the steel mill's inventory increased [50] - **Viewpoint**: The coke futures limit - down, and the spot price is expected to increase. It is recommended to be cautious about shorting on rallies and conduct arbitrage operations [50] Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - **Spot Market**: The price of soybean meal decreased in some regions, and the trading volume increased. The price of rapeseed meal decreased, and the trading volume was 100 tons [51] - **Fundamentals**: The US exported soybeans to Mexico, speculators reduced short positions in soybean meal futures, Argentina reduced export tariffs on agricultural products, and the EU's oilseed imports decreased [52] - **Market Outlook**: US soybeans oscillate at the bottom, and the new crop is expected to be a bumper harvest, suppressing the price. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventory is increasing, and it is recommended to wait and see [52][53] Live Pigs - **Spot Situation**: The spot price of live pigs oscillated weakly, with different trends in different regions [54] - **Market Data**: The profit of self - breeding and self - raising sows and the profit of

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The market is influenced by various factors such as geopolitical events, economic data, and policy expectations. Different asset classes show different trends and potential investment opportunities and risks. Traders should pay attention to market sentiment changes, fundamental factors, and policy developments [2][3][6] - For most commodities, short - term price fluctuations are affected by market sentiment, especially the "anti -内卷" and supply - side reform expectations. However, in the long - term, fundamental factors such as supply and demand will play a more important role. Some commodities may face price adjustments due to over - speculation, while others may have potential based on their own fundamentals [33][37] Summary by Category Macro - Financial Index Futures - News includes Sino - US economic and trade talks, industrial policies, and commodity futures market performance. The market has seen an all - around rise with increased trading volume. It is recommended to focus on the end - of - month Politburo meeting and consider going long on IF index futures on dips [2] Treasury Bonds - On Monday, Treasury bond futures rose. The economic data in the second quarter was resilient, but the "rush - to - export" effect may weaken. The central bank maintains a supportive attitude towards funds, and interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term. Short - term market sentiment in commodities and stocks suppresses the bond market, and it is recommended to enter the market on dips [3][4][5] Precious Metals - Domestic precious metals prices fell slightly, while overseas prices rose slightly. Geopolitical risks and trade uncertainties have eased, and US economic data is resilient, putting short - term pressure on precious metals prices. However, the Fed's monetary policy may turn dovish, and it is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy, especially focusing on silver [6][7] Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - The US is close to a trade agreement with the EU, and the dollar index rises. Copper prices are expected to be weak and fluctuate due to uncertainties in the Fed's meeting and US copper tariffs, as well as seasonal weak demand and expected increase in imports [9][10] Aluminum - Aluminum prices fluctuated. The domestic black - series commodities weakened, and aluminum inventories increased. Without unexpected policy announcements, market sentiment may be under pressure. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate weakly due to low - level inventories and weak downstream demand [11] Zinc - Zinc prices fell. Domestic zinc ore supply is loose, and zinc ingot supply is expected to increase. In the long - term, zinc prices are bearish. Short - term factors such as Fed's dovish sentiment and overseas structural risks need to be considered, and caution is needed for price fluctuations [12] Lead - Lead prices fell slightly. Lead ingot supply is marginally tightening, and downstream demand is expected to improve. Environmental inspections may affect smelter operations, and there is a possibility of price strengthening. Caution is needed for price fluctuations [13][14] Nickel - Nickel prices fell. Nickel ore prices are stable, and nickel iron has an oversupply problem. In the short - term, the macro - environment has cooled, and nickel prices are expected to decline further. It is recommended to hold short positions or go short on rallies [15] Tin - Tin prices fell. Short - term tin ore supply is still tight, but downstream demand is weak. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate within a certain range [16] Carbonate Lithium - Carbonate lithium prices fell sharply. The commodity market has cooled, and there is uncertainty in capital games. It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, and holders should choose appropriate entry points [17][18] Alumina - Alumina prices fell. The supply - side contraction policy needs further observation, and the over - capacity pattern may be difficult to change. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to relevant policies [19] Stainless Steel - Stainless steel prices fell. The market atmosphere has weakened, and the supply is expected to increase. If downstream demand cannot keep up, prices may face pressure. Attention should be paid to macro - news and downstream demand [20] Cast Aluminum Alloy - Cast aluminum alloy prices fell. The downstream is in the off - season, and supply and demand are weak. Although there is cost support, there is upward pressure on prices [21][22] Black Building Materials Steel - Steel prices fell. The commodity market sentiment has cooled, and the cost has decreased. Export volume has decreased, and the fundamentals of different steel products vary. Attention should be paid to policy signals and downstream demand [24][25] Iron Ore - Iron ore prices fell. Overseas shipments are increasing, and demand is high but slightly declining. Inventory has increased slightly. Short - term prices may adjust, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and macro - policies [26][27] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass prices fluctuated. Short - term prices are affected by macro - policies and may be volatile. In the long - term, they depend on real estate policies and supply - side adjustments [28] - Soda ash prices fell. Supply has decreased, and inventory pressure has eased. Short - term prices are expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and look for short - selling opportunities in the long - term [29] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices fell. Short - term prices are affected by market sentiment, and there is a risk of a sharp decline as sentiment fades. It is recommended that speculative positions wait and see, and relevant enterprises consider hedging [30][31][33] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon prices fell. Short - term prices are expected to enter a high - volatility and wide - range oscillation stage. It is recommended to wait and see [34] Energy and Chemicals Rubber - Rubber prices fell. Supply concerns may ease, and there are differences between bulls and bears. It is recommended to wait and see and consider a spread trading strategy [39][40][41] Crude Oil - Crude oil prices showed different trends. The fundamental market is healthy, and there is upward momentum, but seasonal demand weakness in August will limit the upside. It is recommended to go long on dips and set a short - term target price [42] Methanol - Methanol prices fell. Short - term prices are affected by market sentiment, and there is a risk of decline as sentiment cools. Fundamentally, supply may increase and demand may weaken, and it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options on rallies [43] Urea - Urea prices fell. Short - term prices are affected by market sentiment. Fundamentally, supply is decreasing and demand is weak. Exports are an important factor, and it is recommended to look for long - position opportunities on dips [44] Styrene - Styrene prices fell. The market expects positive policies, and the cost side provides support. The BZN spread is expected to repair, and prices are expected to follow the cost side and oscillate upward [45][46] PVC - PVC prices fell. The fundamentals are weak with strong supply and weak demand and high valuation. Attention should be paid to export conditions and the risk of price decline after sentiment fades [47] Ethylene Glycol - Ethylene glycol prices fell. Supply is increasing, and demand recovery is limited. Inventory is expected to increase, and short - term valuation may decline [48] PTA - PTA prices fell. Supply is expected to increase and inventory to accumulate. Demand is gradually improving, and it is recommended to look for long - position opportunities following PX [49] Para - Xylene - Para - xylene prices fell. The load is high, and downstream demand is recovering. It is expected to continue to reduce inventory, and it is recommended to look for long - position opportunities following crude oil [50] Polyethylene (PE) - PE prices fell. The market expects positive policies, and the cost side provides support. The short - term contradiction has shifted, and prices are expected to follow the cost side and oscillate upward. It is recommended to hold short positions [51] Polypropylene (PP) - PP prices fell. Supply and demand are weak in the off - season, and prices are expected to oscillate strongly in July under the influence of macro - expectations [52][53] Agricultural Products Live Pigs - Live pig prices were stable to weak. The market is trading on policy intervention, and the supply - surplus logic has changed. It is recommended to focus on spread trading opportunities [55] Eggs - Egg prices fell. Supply is stable, and demand is average. Short - term prices of near - month contracts will oscillate, and it is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities in post - festival contracts [56] Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - US soybean prices fell, and domestic soybean meal prices were weak. North American weather is favorable, and domestic soybean meal inventory is high. It is recommended to go long on dips in the cost - range and look for opportunities to widen the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal [57][59][60] Oils and Fats - Palm oil exports and production data showed different trends. The domestic oil inventory increased slightly. EPA policies and other factors support the price center, but there are also bearish factors. Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate [61][62][63] Sugar - Sugar prices fell. Brazilian port sugar shipments increased, and domestic import supply pressure may increase. Zhengzhou sugar prices are likely to continue to decline [64][65] Cotton - Cotton prices fell. Downstream consumption is average, and there is a potential negative factor of additional import quotas. The price has partially reflected the positive expectation, and caution is needed [66]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global trade situation is stabilizing as the US reaches trade agreements with major economies, leading to a high - risk appetite in the market, a stronger US dollar index, record - high US stocks, and price adjustments in various commodities [2][4]. - In China, the introduction of a parenting subsidy system is expected to boost rural birth rates and consumption. Market sentiment has shifted after the exchange introduced risk - control measures, and prices are back to being driven by fundamentals. There is a need to be vigilant about short - term market adjustments and to focus on economic data and trade negotiation progress [3]. - Different commodities are affected by various factors such as trade policies, supply - demand relationships, and market sentiment, resulting in different price trends and outlooks [4][6][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: Trump plans to impose tariffs on drugs and keep global tariffs at 15 - 20%. The US and China are negotiating to extend the tariff and export - control truce for 90 days. Many countries are seeking tariff concessions from the US. The US is increasing pressure on Russia, causing oil prices to rise by over 2% [2]. - Domestic: The central government has introduced a parenting subsidy system, with each child receiving 3600 yuan per year until the age of 3. Market sentiment has changed after the exchange's risk - control measures, and the stock market is experiencing a volume - shrinking shock. There is a need to be cautious about short - term market adjustments and focus on economic data and trade negotiation progress [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - International precious - metal futures prices continued to decline on Monday. The US has reached trade agreements with Japan, the EU, and China, and the US - EU new trade agreement has alleviated trade - war concerns. The market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged this week but anticipates a possible rate cut in September. Short - term precious - metal prices are expected to be weak, but the downside is limited [4][5]. 3.3 Copper - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai copper slightly declined, and the London copper faced resistance at the 10,000 - dollar mark. The market expects that Chile may get a copper - tariff exemption from the US, causing a significant drop in US copper prices. First Quantum's copper production in the second quarter decreased year - on - year. The copper price is expected to adjust in the short term, and attention should be paid to the China - US trade talks [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum declined, and the London aluminum was flat. The US - EU trade agreement boosted the US dollar index, and the aluminum social inventory increased. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and inventory trends should be monitored [8]. 3.5 Alumina - On Monday, the main contract of alumina futures decreased significantly. The market sentiment continued to decline, and the futures contract saw a large - scale reduction in positions. The supply is stable recently, and the consumption side is cautious. Alumina is expected to be in a stalemate and fluctuate at a high level [9]. 3.6 Zinc - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc was weak. The market's optimistic sentiment cooled down, and the fundamentals remained weak. High prices inhibited downstream purchases, and inventories increased. The zinc price is expected to adjust in the short term, and attention should be paid to trade talks and domestic policies [10]. 3.7 Lead - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai lead fluctuated weakly. The supply of lead is increasing marginally, but the consumption improvement in the peak season is insufficient, and inventories have slightly increased. The lead price is under pressure but supported by costs, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [11]. 3.8 Tin - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai tin was weak. The market's optimistic sentiment cooled down, and the consumption in the off - season was poor. The supply increased while the demand was weak, and inventories increased for two consecutive weeks. The tin price is expected to adjust at a high level, but the adjustment space is relatively limited [13]. 3.9 Industrial Silicon - On Monday, the main contract of industrial silicon declined significantly. The supply is in a contraction trend, and the demand is weak overall. The futures price is expected to adjust in the short term to seek lower support [14][15]. 3.10 Carbonate Lithium - On Monday, the carbonate - lithium futures price was weak, while the spot price rose significantly. The market is affected by anti - involution policies, and the short - term price is mainly driven by sentiment, showing a wide - range oscillation [16][17]. 3.11 Nickel - On Monday, the nickel price fluctuated. The tariff risk is cooling down, but the domestic anti - involution policy is still uncertain. The terminal market is weak, and the nickel price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and domestic policies need to be monitored [18]. 3.12 Crude Oil - On Monday, crude oil fluctuated weakly during the day and opened higher at night. The acceleration of sanctions against Russia and the improvement of the macro - sentiment are pushing up oil prices. The oil price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [19]. 3.13 Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Monday, steel futures fluctuated. Spot trading declined, and the fundamentals are in a weak balance. The futures price is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend [20][21]. 3.14 Iron Ore - On Monday, iron - ore futures fluctuated at a high level. Overseas shipments increased, and arrivals decreased. The demand remains resilient, and the market is in a weak balance. The iron - ore price is expected to fluctuate [22]. 3.15 Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Monday, bean and rapeseed meal futures declined. The good growth conditions of US soybeans, Argentina's reduction of soybean export tax rates, and the increase in domestic bean - meal inventories are factors affecting the market. The domestic bean - meal price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [23][24]. 3.16 Palm Oil - On Monday, palm - oil futures rose, while soybean and rapeseed oil futures declined. The production of Malaysian palm oil increased in July, and the export demand decreased. The palm - oil price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [25][26][27]