Core Viewpoint - Artificial intelligence (AI) is becoming the core variable driving a new investment cycle in the global technology industry, with expectations that by 2026, the semiconductor and technology sectors will enter a phase of multiple overlapping supercycles, characterized by synchronized improvements in key areas such as storage, capital expenditure, and computing infrastructure [1][2]. Group 1: AI-Driven Investment Dynamics - Multiple foreign institutions predict that AI will continue to be a core variable in 2026, reshaping the investment landscape of the semiconductor and technology ecosystem [2]. - The current transformations in the semiconductor and AI ecosystem indicate a shift from linear growth to a model characterized by multiple supercycles, structural bottlenecks, and rapid evolution of corporate implementation rhythms [2]. - Investors are advised to adopt proactive management strategies to navigate market volatility and valuation differentiation, focusing on long-term structural drivers and short-term market sentiments [2]. Group 2: Corporate Confidence and Economic Outlook - According to Fidelity International's analyst survey, corporate confidence is rebounding to its most optimistic level since 2020, driven by sustained investments in AI and related infrastructure [3]. - Analysts believe that the current global economy is experiencing one of the largest investment cycles in recent years, primarily fueled by AI [3]. - Concerns regarding technology sector valuations detaching from fundamentals are gradually easing as high levels of investment benefit the entire AI value chain [3]. Group 3: Structural Evolution in AI Industry - The evolution path within the AI industry is characterized by a "first infrastructure, then application" approach, with key directions identified for 2026 including the continuation of the storage supercycle and a comprehensive semiconductor capital expenditure supercycle [4][5]. - The semiconductor industry is entering a phase of multiple overlapping supercycles, driven by unprecedented growth in AI, with industry bottlenecks shifting from computational speed to storage bandwidth [5]. - The expansion of capital expenditure is being propelled by AI demand, geopolitical shifts, and the regionalization of global production capacity [5]. Group 4: Computing Power and Application Trends - The AI computing power sector is expected to steadily rise in 2026, with a robust development rhythm and continuous improvement in performance realization capabilities [5]. - The AI application sector is still in the technology trigger phase, exploring the alignment of core technologies with application scenarios [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report Based on macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend, resistance, and support levels of various futures contracts in March 2026 and on March 27, 2026 [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market Outlook - **Futures Contracts Outlook in March 2026**: - **Stock Index Futures**: IF2606, IH2606, IC2606, and IM2606 are expected to be weak and volatile, with specific resistance and support levels [2]. - **Precious Metals Futures**: Gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures are expected to be weak and volatile, with corresponding resistance and support levels [2]. - **Base Metals Futures**: Copper, aluminum, nickel, tin, etc. futures have different trends, with some being weak and volatile, and some having a wide - range of fluctuations, along with their respective resistance and support levels [2]. - **Energy Futures**: Crude oil, fuel oil, etc. are expected to be strong and have a wide - range of fluctuations, and are likely to hit new highs [2]. - **Other Commodity Futures**: Such as alumina, iron ore, etc., have different trends and corresponding resistance and support levels [2]. - **Futures Contracts Outlook on March 27, 2026**: - Stock index futures are likely to be weak and volatile, with specific resistance and support levels for each contract [17]. - Gold, silver, copper, and other futures are also expected to have corresponding trends and levels [32][38][45]. 2. Macro News and Trading Tips - **Diplomatic News**: Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi discussed the Middle - East situation and the Iranian nuclear issue with Canadian Foreign Minister Anand; Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao met with Dutch Minister of Foreign Trade and Development Cooperation Schertzma to discuss economic and trade cooperation [5]. - **Domestic Policy News**: The State Administration for Market Regulation emphasized strengthening anti - monopoly supervision and law enforcement and enterprise compliance guidance [5]. - **International News**: US President Trump announced a state visit to China; the US postponed the strike on Iranian energy facilities; the US is formulating military options against Iran; Iran responded to the US cease - fire proposal; Iranian President Pezeshkian expressed the desire to end the war; the OECD released an economic outlook report [5][6][8]. - **Economic Data**: The US initial jobless claims increased by 5,000 to 210,000 last week, and the continued jobless claims decreased by 32,000 to 1.819 million [8]. 3. Commodity Futures - related Information - **Exchange Policy**: The Shanghai International Energy Exchange issued a notice on trading limits and margin ratios for the EC2703 contract of the container shipping index (European line) futures [9]. - **Futures Price Movements**: International precious metal futures generally fell; US oil and Brent oil futures rose; London base metals mostly fell; Iraqi oil production decreased due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz; the Turkish central bank sold gold [9][10][11]. 4. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Stock Index Futures on March 26**: The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index futures all showed a downward trend, with increased short - term downward pressure [13][14]. - **Stock Market on March 26**: A - shares, the Hong Kong stock market, US stocks, and European stocks all closed down [14][15][16]. - **Analysis of Various Futures Contracts**: Each futures contract's performance on March 26 and the expected trends in March 2026 and on March 27, 2026 are analyzed, including gold, silver, copper, and other futures [32][38][44].

Market Overview - The total margin balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is 26,165.5 billion, showing a slight decrease of 0.04% compared to the previous period [1] - The financing amount for the last trading day is 1,761.6 billion, which represents a significant decline of 14.58% [1] Industry Insights - The top 20 industries by margin balance include: - Semiconductor: 192.49 billion - Securities: 140.23 billion - Communication Equipment: 104.72 billion - Battery: 84.78 billion - Banking: 78.06 billion - Software Development: 75.23 billion - Military Equipment: 63.81 billion - Automotive Parts: 63.74 billion - Consumer Electronics: 61.18 billion - Photovoltaic Equipment: 60.69 billion - IT Services: 60.12 billion - Components: 59.09 billion - Power: 56.05 billion - Complete Vehicles: 49.46 billion - General Equipment: 47.84 billion - Chemical Pharmaceuticals: 47.74 billion - Industrial Metals: 47.36 billion - Optical Electronics: 45.77 billion - Computer Equipment: 43.08 billion - Insurance: 42.72 billion [3] Individual Stock Insights - The top five stocks by financing amount for the last trading day are: - Xinyi Technology: 2.8 billion, with a financing buy ratio of 16.41% and a price drop of 4.03% - Zhongji Xuchuang: 2.45 billion, with a financing buy ratio of 14.86% and a price drop of 2.26% - Huagong Technology: 1.72 billion, with a financing buy ratio of 11.60% and a price drop of 8.98% - Tianfu Communication: 1.71 billion, with a financing buy ratio of 12.91% and a price increase of 2.17% - Shenghong Technology: 1.41 billion, with a financing buy ratio of 18.00% and a price increase of 0.92% [5]

Group 1: New Dairy Industry (002946) - The company reported a revenue of 11.233 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5.33%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 731 million yuan, up 35.98% year-on-year [5][6] - The liquid milk revenue reached 10.495 billion yuan, a 6.7% increase year-on-year, while the milk powder business generated 87 million yuan, growing by 21.56% [6] - The direct-to-consumer (DTC) model generated 7.163 billion yuan in revenue, a 15.07% increase, accounting for 63.77% of total revenue, while the distribution model saw a decline of 7.17% [7] - The net profit margin improved to 6.72%, up 1.56 percentage points year-on-year, and the gross margin was 29.18%, an increase of 0.82 percentage points [7] - The company expects net profits for 2026-2028 to be 855 million, 1.006 billion, and 1.136 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.99, 1.17, and 1.32 yuan [8] Group 2: Lexin Technology (688018) - The company reported total revenue of 2.565 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 27.82%, and a net profit of 498 million yuan, up 46.72% year-on-year [10] - The sales gross margin was 46.63%, an increase of 2.72 percentage points year-on-year, with the fourth quarter revenue reaching 653 million yuan, a 19.4% increase year-on-year [10][11] - The company sold 131 million modules and 178 million chips in 2025, with year-on-year growth of 25.97% and 19.00% respectively [11] - The gross margin for chips was 48.5%, while the margin for modules and development kits rose to 45.4%, contributing to an overall gross margin of 46.6% [12] - The company forecasts revenues of 3.363 billion, 4.319 billion, and 5.486 billion yuan for 2026-2028, with net profits of 696 million, 922 million, and 1.221 billion yuan respectively [14]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company plans to acquire approximately 53.09% of Shenzhen Huinengtai Semiconductor Technology Co., Ltd. for a cash consideration of RMB 408 million, which is expected to enhance its product line and create synergies [8] - The acquisition will allow the company to integrate Huinengtai's products into its offerings, facilitating a strategic upgrade from "power devices" to "system solutions" [8] - The acquisition is anticipated to strengthen the company's core competitiveness and foster new growth points in performance [8] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: RMB 973 million - 2024: RMB 1,003 million (3.12% YoY growth) - 2025: RMB 1,253 million (24.87% YoY growth) - 2026: RMB 1,576 million (25.84% YoY growth) - 2027: RMB 2,017 million (27.94% YoY growth) [7] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected as follows: - 2023: RMB 140 million - 2024: RMB 40 million - 2025: RMB 44 million - 2026: RMB 145 million (228.58% YoY growth) - 2027: RMB 222 million (53.26% YoY growth) [7] - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates are: - 2024: RMB 0.33 - 2025: RMB 0.36 - 2026: RMB 1.18 - 2027: RMB 1.81 [9] - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are: - 2025: 206.05 - 2026: 62.71 - 2027: 40.92 [9]

Core Insights - Meituan has reported a significant investment return of 40 billion yuan from foreign investments, with actual value exceeding this figure [1] - The company is actively investing in various technology sectors, including robotics, AI, semiconductors, and autonomous driving, indicating a strategic focus on physical AI [3] Investment Overview - Meituan's investments span multiple sectors, including: - **Robotics**: Investments in companies like Yushun Technology and Galaxy General, with valuations reaching up to 30 billion USD [1] - **AI & Large Models**: Notable investments in companies like Zhi Yu AI and Yue Zhi An, with valuations exceeding 180 billion yuan [1] - **Semiconductors & AI Hardware**: Investments in firms like Rongxin Semiconductor and Moer Thread, with current valuations around 250 billion yuan [2] - **Autonomous Driving & Smart Vehicles**: Investments in companies like Li Auto, with a current market valuation of approximately 130 billion yuan [2] Strategic Focus - The company emphasizes the importance of physical AI, stating that the digitalization of the physical world will be a crucial foundation for AI development [3] - Meituan aims to align its strategic investments with its core business operations, leveraging its extensive data and scenarios in the offline physical world [3]

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 24,856, down 1.89% for the day and down 3.02% year-to-date [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 3.28% to 4,761, marking a year-to-date decline of 13.68% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 1.09% to 3,889, with a year-to-date drop of 2.01% [1] - The Dow Jones Index closed at 45,960, down 1% for the day and down 4.38% year-to-date [1] Currency Performance - The Renminbi Index increased by 2.83% over the past month and 4.38% over the past six months, reaching 100.580 [2] - The US Dollar Index rose by 1.89% month-on-month and 1.52% over six months, standing at 99.642 [2] - The exchange rate for Renminbi to USD is 0.145, showing a monthly increase of 0.89% but a decline of 3.20% over six months [2] Commodity Performance - Brent crude oil prices surged by 49.35% over the past month, reaching $105.800 per barrel, and increased by 56.35% over six months [3] - Gold prices fell by 14.34% over the past month, priced at $4,441.68 per ounce, but rose by 18.13% over six months [3] - Silver prices dropped by 22.62% in the last month, now at $68.334 per ounce, while increasing by 48.28% over six months [3] Company News - Google launched a compression algorithm called TurboQuant, claiming to achieve approximately six times memory savings for AI systems [11] - The Mandatory Provident Fund (MPF) reported a negative investment return of 6.33% for March, resulting in an estimated loss of HKD 1,033 billion, equivalent to HKD 21,542 per member [12] - Hong Kong Electric announced a reduction in fuel adjustment fees from HKD 0.34 to HKD 0.304 per kWh for April, with expectations of significant increases later in the year due to rising fuel costs [13][14] Industry Insights - The China Passenger Car Market Information Joint Conference reported a 17% year-on-year decline in retail sales of new energy vehicles for the first three weeks of March, despite a 66% month-on-month increase [16] - The Hong Kong Trade Development Council maintains a positive but cautious outlook on trade prospects, noting a 24.7% year-on-year increase in export value for February 2026 [17]

Domestic Market Overview - The domestic market showed weak consolidation with a slight decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.09% to 3889.08 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 1.41% to 13606.44 points, and the ChiNext Index down 1.34% to 3272.49 points. The total trading volume of the A-shares was 1.96 trillion yuan, a slight decrease from the previous day [1][4][9] - Among the 30 first-level industries of CITIC, only 2 industries rose, with oil and petrochemicals and coal leading the gains. In terms of concepts, indices related to lithium battery electrolyte, lithium battery anode, and lithium ore performed actively [1][4][9] Overseas Market Overview - The majority of European and American stock markets closed lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 1.01% to 45960.11 points, the S&P 500 down 1.74% to 6477.16 points, and the Nasdaq down 2.38% to 21408.08 points. Notably, Nvidia fell over 4% and 3M Company dropped more than 2%, leading the decline in the Dow [2][4][9] News Highlights - The Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao met with the Dutch Minister for Foreign Trade and Development Cooperation, Schreinemacher, to discuss China-Netherlands economic relations and WTO reforms [3][11] - Guangdong is promoting the coordinated development of manufacturing and service industries, implementing actions for empowering manufacturing with services and upgrading manufacturing to be more high-end, intelligent, and green [3][13]

Company Analysis - Meituan (3690 HK) reported 4Q25 revenue of RMB 92.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.1%, aligning with Bloomberg consensus expectations. The adjusted net loss was RMB 15.1 billion, at the lower end of the previously warned range of RMB 15.1 billion to RMB 16.1 billion. The core local commerce (CLC) business is believed to have reached a bottom in profitability due to regulatory guidance promoting healthier industry practices and a focus on core competencies among participants [2][6] - The operating loss of Meituan's core local commerce business narrowed by 29% quarter-on-quarter in 4Q25, with expectations for a further 58% reduction to RMB 4.2 billion in 1Q25 [2] - Weichai Power (2338 HK) experienced an unexpected 4% decline in net profit for 2025, totaling RMB 10.9 billion, which is 12% lower than consensus expectations. The 4Q25 net profit fell by 32% year-on-year to RMB 2 billion, primarily due to a 3.9 percentage point drop in gross margin [6][7] - Despite the weak performance, Weichai Power's transition towards electric power business remains positive, with electric-related engine sales expected to increase from 12% in 2024 to 14% in 2025. The target price for Weichai Power has been adjusted to HKD 30.5 and RMB 28.7, reflecting an increase in the EV/EBITDA target multiple to 11 times [6][7] - Binhai Service (3316 HK) reported a 14.1% year-on-year revenue growth to RMB 4.1 billion for the 2025 fiscal year, although this was slightly below consensus expectations. Net profit grew by 12.1% to RMB 880 million, also below expectations. The company has reduced its reliance on the parent company, with an increase in property fee collection rates and average property fees [6][7] - The average property fee rose to RMB 4.2 per square meter per month, with 14 projects completing fee increase contracts in 2025. This performance is attributed to the company's high-end positioning and focus on project concentration [7][8] Industry Overview - The global market has shown a downward trend, with major indices such as the Hang Seng Index falling by 1.89% and the S&P 500 declining by 1.74%. The technology sector, particularly in the US, has faced significant pressure, with the Nasdaq dropping by 2.38% [3][5] - The A-share market also experienced declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 1.09% and the ChiNext Index down by 1.34%. The market is influenced by sectors such as computing, non-bank financials, and telecommunications leading the declines, while coal, oil, and banking sectors showed some resilience [5] - The global bond market remains under pressure, with US Treasury yields rising across the board, reflecting concerns over economic resilience and inflation. The 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.41% [5]

Market Overview - Global stock markets remain under pressure due to the uncertain situation between the US and Iran, with the S&P 500 down 1.74% and the Nasdaq down 2.38%[3] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 45,960.1, reflecting a decline of 1.0%[7] - European markets also fell, with the Stoxx Europe 600 index down approximately 1.1%, erasing its gains for the year[8] Oil and Commodities - Oil prices surged, with WTI crude oil rising 4.6% to $94.48 per barrel and Brent crude up 5.7% to $108.01 per barrel[29] - The US dollar index peaked at 100, reflecting market panic amid stalled negotiations[4] - Gold prices fell by 2.9%, settling at $4,376.11 per ounce, while copper prices dropped 1.4%[29] ASEAN Impact - The ongoing Iran conflict has significantly disrupted energy transport to ASEAN countries, particularly affecting Singapore, the Philippines, and Thailand due to their high dependence on energy imports[5] - Malaysia, as a net energy exporter, is better positioned to cope with these disruptions[5] Fixed Income Market - US Treasury yields rose, with the 2-year yield approaching 4% and the 10-year yield exceeding 4.4%[4] - The auction of 7-year US Treasuries showed weak demand, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.43, below the average of 2.46[32] Asian Market Performance - The KOSPI index in South Korea fell 3.2%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index dropped 1.89%[22] - A-shares also declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.09%[17] Corporate Highlights - Huazhu Group reported better-than-expected Q4 earnings, with a revenue increase of 2.0% year-on-year, driven by franchise expansion[8] - China Mobile's service revenue grew by 0.7% year-on-year, but overall performance remains weak compared to peers[15] Inflation and Monetary Policy - The OECD has significantly raised inflation forecasts for major economies, indicating potential tightening of monetary policies in the Philippines and Singapore[5] - The Philippine central bank is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points by mid-2026 due to rising inflation risks[25]