投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 9 月 1 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 基本面弱稳运行，矿价高位震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 观点参考 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局弱稳运行，钢厂生产趋弱，矿石需求持续下行，且钢厂利润收缩，叠加限产短期 扰动，利好效应趋弱。与此同时，国内港口到货虽回落，但海外矿商发运维持高位，按船期推算后续 澳巴矿到货仍将回升，海外矿石供应相对偏高，而内矿生产受限，矿石供应平稳运行。目前来看，铁 ...

铁矿石周度观点 资料来源 Mysteel 、iFind Wind 富宝资讯：、国泰君安期货研究所 ◼ 供应：全球发运自高位小幅回调，边际变化较小；最近一周澳升巴降，另外非主流贡献主要减量。 ◼ 需求：铁水与五大材产量依然维持在相对高位，较去年同期显现出幅度较大的增量，支撑着铁矿现货的即期需求。 ◼ 宏观层面：8月制造业PMI环比小幅回升，但仍在50荣枯线之下；另外近期国内上市主体集中发布上半年财报，利润表现继续为 宏观风偏提供交易情绪上的支撑；但仍需警惕宏观强预期的过度计价以及潜在的风偏快速回落风险。 ◼ 逻辑总结阐述：对于铁矿盘面估值来说，前期反内卷主题交易启动后，矿价被大幅推高并维持在相对高位，几次阶段性的回调幅 度均较为有限；但考虑到钢铁秋季需求旺季即将到来，产业与宏观预期在淡季大幅抢跑后，现实基本面即将迎来旺季需求兑现的 考验，叠加铁矿未来海外供给增量的预期，预计其高估值在接下来或面临一定考验。 铁矿合约表现 ◼ 主力01合约价格周环比收涨，收于787.5元/吨，持仓47.4 万手，持仓增加2.1万手；日均成交量25.2万手，日均成 交周环比+0.54万手。 资料来源 Mysteel 、iFind W ...

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting provides an assessment of the Chinese iron ore industry from 2025 to 2031, highlighting market trends and development strategies [1] Import Data Summary - In June 2025, China's imports of iron ore and its concentrates reached 106 million tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.7% [1] - The import value for the same period was $9.841 billion, showing a year-on-year decrease of 4.9% [1] Company Profile - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in in-depth industry research and providing comprehensive consulting services, including feasibility studies and customized reports [1]

交易咨询业务：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 2025年8月29日 研究员：李海啸 交易咨询：Z0019568 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 http://www.eafutures .com 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完 整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和建议。 在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司 不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形下 做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。 本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者 （您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成 的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。 黑色系周报—铁矿石 发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发 的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的 引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 8 月 29 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 基本面强弱不一，钢矿走势分化 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价再度走弱，录得 0.83%日跌幅，量仓收缩，移仓换月 中。现阶段，供需双增局面下螺纹钢基本面并未改善，库存增加，产业 矛盾持续累积，钢价仍易承压，相对利好则是成本抬升与旺季需求预 期，多空因素博弈下预计螺纹钢延续震荡寻底态势，关注需求表现情 况。 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 热轧卷板：主力期价偏弱震荡，录得 0.21%日跌幅，量仓扩大，移仓换 月完成。目前来看，热卷需求韧性尚可，且短期限产扰动未退，供需格 局表现 ...

Core Viewpoint - Fortescue's financial performance in FY2025 reflects a significant profit decline despite increased production, highlighting challenges in the iron ore market and the impact of falling prices on revenue [2][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Fortescue reported a 41% drop in profit, amounting to $3.37 billion, despite a record iron ore shipment of 198.4 million tons, primarily to China [3]. - Revenue decreased by 15% to $15.5 billion, attributed to a price drop from nearly $110 per ton to a low of $93 per ton, despite a 4% increase in shipment volume [3]. - The annual dividend per share was reduced by 44% from $1.28 to $0.72, impacting major shareholders Andrew and Nicola Forrest, whose total dividends fell from $1.4 billion to $808 million [3]. Group 2: Future Outlook - With iron ore prices rebounding above $100 per ton and cost efficiencies improving, Fortescue anticipates a potential profit recovery in the current fiscal year [4]. - The company aims to maintain iron ore export volumes between 195 million and 205 million tons, with cash costs projected between $17.50 and $18.50 per ton [4]. - Fortescue continues to invest in renewable energy, despite facing challenges and a $150 million asset impairment related to green hydrogen projects in Australia and the U.S. [4][6]. Group 3: Leadership and Strategy - Chairman Andrew Forrest emphasized the company's commitment to leading the transition to a zero-emission economy, supported by global leaders [6]. - The company remains focused on finding commercially viable "green" energy solutions, despite the high costs associated with these initiatives [6].

公司地址：浙江省杭州市求是路 8 号公元大厦南裙1-5楼。 咨询热线：400 618 1199 铁矿石供需两端均有所走弱，钢厂生产趋弱，矿石终端消耗高位回落，本周样本钢厂日均铁水产量和进口矿日耗双双下 降，且短期限产扰动发酵，叠加钢厂利润在收缩，矿石需求料将下行，前期支撑矿价主逻辑有所变化。与此同时，国内港口 矿石到货再度回落，且海外矿商发运也是高位下行，按船期推算后续澳巴到货量将回升，海外矿石供应维持高位，但内矿供 应相对受限，整体呈现平稳运行态势。总之，矿石需求韧性尚可，给予矿价支撑，但钢厂利润收缩叠加限产扰动，利好效应 在趋弱，相应的供应高位平稳运行，矿石基本面变化不大，预计高估值矿价延续震荡运行态势，关注钢价表现情况。 本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值 同期变化 45港铁矿石库存 13,763.02 -82.18 13,657.90 105.12 15,372.38 -1,609.36 247家钢厂进口矿库存 9,007.19 -58.28 9,012.09 -4.90 8,996.47 10.72 45港铁矿石到货量 2,393.30 -83.30 2,240.50 152.80 2,5 ...

Report Overview - The report is a daily report on the black sector by Shan Jin Futures, covering steel products such as rebar, hot-rolled coils, and iron ore [1][2][5] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content 2. Core Views Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coils - The market focus has shifted to verifying downstream actual demand. Seasonally, demand should pick up and inventory decline in the peak consumption season, but concerns remain due to the real estate market's slow recovery [2] - Rebar production has increased, apparent demand has slightly risen, factory inventory has decreased, and social inventory has increased for seven consecutive weeks. Total production and inventory of the five major steel products have risen, with an increase in apparent demand [2] - Technically, rebar and hot-rolled coils have reached near the lower Bollinger Band on the daily K-line chart, with potential strong support, but the pressure from the 10-day moving average above is significant [2] - The operation suggestion is to maintain a wait-and-see approach, short-sell on rallies, and avoid chasing prices [2] Iron Ore - Steel mills' profitability is fair, but the profit margin has adjusted, possibly due to the sharp increase in coke prices. Iron ore production has slightly increased and may rise further after the military parade, but the upside is limited due to high production levels and weak terminal demand [5] - Global iron ore shipments are at a high level, and future arrivals are expected to increase. Port inventory shows signs of stabilizing, with no obvious accumulation yet, but an increase during the peak season is possible [5] - Technically, the 01 contract is oscillating around the middle Bollinger Band on the daily K-line chart, with a narrowing band opening, indicating a high probability of mid-term oscillation and limited short-term upside [5] - The operation suggestion is to short-sell on rallies, conduct short-term trades, and set stop-loss and take-profit levels promptly [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coils Price Data - Rebar futures prices have increased, with the main contract closing at 3,129 yuan/ton, up 0.58% from the previous day and 0.26% from last week. Hot-rolled coil futures prices have also increased, with the main contract closing at 3,372 yuan/ton, up 0.69% from the previous day and down 0.09% from last week [3] - Rebar spot prices in Shanghai remained unchanged at 3,290 yuan/ton, down 0.30% from last week. Hot-rolled coil spot prices in Shanghai increased to 3,410 yuan/ton, up 0.89% from the previous day and down 0.29% from last week [3] Production and Inventory - National rebar production increased by 5.91 million tons to 220.56 million tons, a 2.75% increase. Hot-rolled coil production decreased by 0.50 million tons to 324.74 million tons, a 0.15% decrease [3] - The five major steel products' social inventory increased by 29.17 million tons to 1,046.38 million tons, a 2.87% increase. Rebar social inventory increased by 21.26 million tons to 453.77 million tons, a 4.92% increase. Hot-rolled coil social inventory increased by 3.23 million tons to 285.78 million tons, a 1.14% increase [3] - The five major steel products' factory inventory decreased by 2.33 million tons to 421.5 million tons, a 0.55% decrease. Rebar factory inventory decreased by 4.91 million tons to 169.62 million tons, a 2.81% decrease. Hot-rolled coil factory inventory increased by 0.79 million tons to 79.68 million tons, a 1.00% increase [3] Demand - The apparent demand for the five major steel products increased by 4.78 million tons to 857.77 million tons, a 0.56% increase. Rebar apparent demand increased by 9.41 million tons to 204.21 million tons, a 4.83% increase. Hot-rolled coil apparent demand decreased by 0.55 million tons to 320.72 million tons, a 0.17% decrease [3] Iron Ore Price Data - Iron ore spot prices have increased, with Macfie powder at Qingdao Port at 766 yuan/wet ton, up 1.32% from the previous day and last week. The DCE iron ore main contract settlement price is 790.5 yuan/dry ton, up 1.93% from the previous day and 2.33% from last week [5] Supply and Demand - Australian iron ore shipments increased by 261.3 million tons to 1,719 million tons, a 17.93% increase. Brazilian iron ore shipments decreased by 188.2 million tons to 748.1 million tons, a 20.10% decrease [5] - Northern six-port arrivals decreased by 99.5 million tons to 1,153 million tons, a 7.94% decrease. The average daily port clearance volume decreased by 5.76 million tons to 341.04 million tons, a 1.66% decrease [5] - Port inventory increased by 25.93 million tons to 13,845.2 million tons, a 0.19% increase. Trade ore inventory increased by 19.80 million tons to 9,213.33 million tons, a 0.22% increase [5] Technical Analysis - The 01 contract is oscillating around the middle Bollinger Band on the daily K-line chart, with a narrowing band opening, indicating a high probability of mid-term oscillation and limited short-term upside [5] 4. Industry News - China plans to cut steel production from 2025 to 2026 to address overcapacity and meet carbon emission peak targets. In the first seven months of this year, China's crude steel production decreased by 3.1% year-on-year to 594.47 million tons [7] - As of the week ending August 28, rebar production increased, factory inventory decreased, and social inventory increased for the seventh consecutive week, with apparent demand increasing for the second consecutive week [7] - Since August 25, 2025, six blast furnaces of foundry pig iron enterprises in Shandong and Henan have been shut down for maintenance due to environmental protection and low downstream demand, affecting daily production by about 0.44 million tons. Two more blast furnaces are planned to shut down on August 30 and September 1, increasing the daily impact to 0.85 million tons [7] - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 55 yuan/ton. The average profit per ton of quasi-primary coke in Shanxi is 75 yuan/ton, in Shandong is 128 yuan/ton, in Inner Mongolia is -17 yuan/ton, and in Hebei is 80 yuan/ton [7] - As of August 28, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises decreased by 1.63% week-on-week to 62.566 million heavy boxes, with a year-on-year decrease of 11.31%. The inventory days decreased by 0.5 days to 26.7 days [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various asset classes including macro - finance, stocks, precious metals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, and agricultural products. It points out that short - term macro upward drivers are marginally strengthening, with focus on domestic incremental stimulus policies, loose expectations, Sino - US trade negotiation progress, and implementation of domestic incremental policies. Different asset classes are expected to have different short - term trends, mainly presenting震荡 (oscillation) or震荡偏强 (oscillation with a slightly upward trend) patterns [2][3]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - Overseas: The second - quarter GDP had a year - on - year growth rate of 3.3%, higher than the expected 3.1%. After the New York Fed President Williams hinted at a possible rate cut, market expectations for a Fed rate cut next month increased, the US dollar index was weak, and global risk appetite increased. - Domestic: China's economic data in July slowed down and was below expectations. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption in September. With the extension of the Sino - US tariff truce for 90 days and increased US easing expectations, short - term external risks decreased, and domestic risk appetite increased. - Asset Performance: Stocks are expected to be short - term oscillatory and slightly stronger, with short - term cautious long positions; treasury bonds are expected to be high - level oscillatory in the short term, with cautious observation; commodities: black metals, non - ferrous metals, and energy chemicals are short - term oscillatory, with cautious observation; precious metals are high - level and slightly stronger oscillatory in the short term, with cautious long positions [2]. Stocks - The domestic stock market fell significantly due to the drag of sectors such as clothing and home textiles, biomedicine, and liquor. - The short - term macro upward driver is marginally strengthening, with focus on Sino - US trade negotiation progress and implementation of domestic incremental policies. Short - term cautious observation is recommended [3]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices rose on Thursday. The Fed's independence concerns and the weakening US dollar supported the upward movement of precious metals. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased, and the second - quarter GDP was stronger than expected. The market is focused on the PCE data to be released on Friday. Gold has strong short - term support, but be wary of the Fed's changing attitude [3][4]. Black Metals Steel - Steel futures and spot prices rebounded slightly on Thursday, and trading volume increased slightly. The expectation of steel production cuts in the next two years has increased. - The fundamentals remain weak, with an increase in the inventory of five major steel products and a decline in the apparent consumption of some products. Supply is mixed, with an increase in rebar production and a slight decrease in hot - rolled coil production. There is a possibility of further production restrictions in the north in early September, and the steel market may continue to rebound [5]. Iron Ore - Iron ore futures and spot prices rebounded significantly on Thursday. Steel mills' profits are high, but due to production restrictions in the north in the next week, steel mills' procurement is cautious. - Global iron ore shipments and arrivals decreased this week. Port inventories decreased slightly on Monday. Iron ore prices are expected to be range - bound in the short term [5]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - Silicon iron prices were flat, and silicon manganese prices rebounded slightly on Thursday. The demand for ferroalloys is okay as the production of five major steel products continues to increase. - The production of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia is stable, with some minor production fluctuations. There are new production capacity plans in the future, and the daily output may be affected by 500 - 800 tons. The prices of ferroalloys are expected to be range - bound in the short term [6][7]. Soda Ash - The soda ash main contract oscillated on Thursday. Supply increased due to the return of previous maintenance, and there is supply pressure with new capacity coming online. - Demand remained stable week - on - week, but overall demand support is weak. Profits decreased week - on - week. Soda ash is expected to be range - bound in the short term [7]. Glass - The glass main contract oscillated on Thursday. Supply remained stable, and demand is difficult to improve significantly. - Profits decreased as glass prices fell. With the support of real - estate news, glass is expected to be range - bound in the short term [7]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - Due to concerns about US tariffs and the expected tightening of the Japanese central bank's monetary policy, and the weakening of domestic demand, the strong copper price is difficult to sustain [9]. Aluminum - Aluminum prices fell slightly on Thursday, and inventories continued to increase. The medium - term upward space for aluminum prices is limited, and it is expected to be oscillatory in the short term [9]. Aluminum Alloy - The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, the cost of recycled aluminum plants is rising, and demand is weak. The price is expected to be oscillatory and slightly stronger in the short term, but the upward space is limited [9]. Tin - The supply - side开工率 (operating rate) increased, and the mine supply is expected to be loose. The demand side is weak, but the price decline has stimulated downstream replenishment. Tin prices are expected to be oscillatory in the short term, with support from smelter maintenance and peak - season expectations, but restricted by high tariffs,复产 expectations (restoration of production expectations), and weak demand [10]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate main contract fell on Thursday. After the previous sentiment subsided, it is expected to be widely oscillatory, with short - term short positions and long - term long positions [11]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon main contract fell on Thursday. With the oscillation of black metals and polysilicon, industrial silicon is expected to be weakly oscillatory [11]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon main contract fell on Thursday. The production in August is approaching 130,000 tons, and the number of warehouse receipts is increasing. It is facing a game between strong expectations and weak reality. It is recommended to short on rebounds [12]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The possibility of more Russian oil supply entering the market in the short term has decreased, and oil prices rose slightly on Thursday. However, the market has limited risk premium digestion, and short - term oil prices are expected to be weakly oscillatory [14]. Asphalt - Due to limited oil price changes, the asphalt main price remained almost unchanged. The spot market has slightly improved, but inventory removal is limited. Asphalt is expected to be weakly oscillatory in the short term [14]. PX - After the price increase due to Zhejiang Petrochemical's maintenance, PX supply is tight, and it is expected to be oscillatory in the short term, waiting for changes in PTA devices [14]. PTA - The PTA price declined, but there is some support from domestic and South Korean petrochemical capacity adjustments and the temporary shutdown of the Huizhou device. It is expected to be oscillatory in the short term, with attention to the downstream recovery space [15]. Ethylene Glycol - Ethylene glycol prices continued to decline, and port inventories decreased slightly. It is expected to be narrowly oscillatory in the short term, with support from downstream start - up recovery, but supply pressure is still large [16]. Short - Fiber - Short - fiber prices fell slightly due to sector resonance. Terminal orders have increased seasonally, and it is recommended to short on highs in the medium term [16]. Methanol - The restart of inland devices and concentrated arrivals have pressured prices, but there is some support from the reflux window and the planned restart of MTO devices. Methanol is expected to be oscillatory [16]. PP - The supply - side pressure is increasing, and demand is showing signs of recovery. The 09 contract is expected to be weakly oscillatory, and attention should be paid to the peak - season inventory situation of the 01 contract [16]. LLDPE - The supply - side pressure remains, and demand is showing a turning point. The 09 contract is expected to be weakly oscillatory, and attention should be paid to demand and inventory situation of the 01 contract [17]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The CBOT soybean price was supported by the continuous improvement of US new - season soybean exports. The export sales of the current market year decreased, while the next - year exports increased significantly. Pakistan is expected to sign a purchase agreement [19]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - The pressure of continuous inventory accumulation of domestic oil mills' soybeans and soybean meal has eased, but the near - month/spot risk has not subsided. Rapeseed meal has an upward fluctuation basis due to low inventory and few long - term purchases [19]. Oils - Rapeseed oil port inventories are decreasing, and the supply of soybean oil is expected to strengthen. Palm oil is in the production - increasing cycle, and the market is expected to be oscillatory [20]. Corn - The national corn price is running weakly, but the futures price has entered a relatively low - valuation range, and the possibility of breaking through last year's range is small [20]. Hogs - Group farms continued to reduce weight in August, and the pig price did not rebound as expected at the end of August. The theoretical slaughter volume will increase in September, but there is no need to be overly pessimistic. Some local areas have started purchasing and storage [20][21].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Yesterday, the overall atmosphere in the commodity market was positive, with the prices of finished steel products rebounding slightly. However, the demand for finished products remained weak, and the profit of steel mills was gradually shrinking. If the demand cannot improve effectively in the future, the prices may continue to decline. The raw material side was more resilient than the finished product side. It is recommended to continuously track the progress of terminal demand recovery and the support of the cost side for the prices of finished products [4]. - The prices of ferroalloys dropped rapidly due to the weakening of the "anti - involution" sentiment in the market. It is necessary to be vigilant against the possibility of short - term repeated fluctuations in commodity sentiment. It is not recommended for speculative funds to participate excessively in the short term, while hedging funds can seize hedging opportunities during the repeated fluctuations [11]. - The prices of industrial silicon are expected to fluctuate within the range of 8300 - 9300 yuan/ton. The polysilicon market is in a pattern of "weak reality, strong expectation", and the price is fluctuating and adjusting, with a support level at 47000 yuan/ton [16][17]. - In the short term, glass is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the valuation should not be overly underestimated. In the long run, it follows the macro - sentiment. The price of soda ash is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the price center may gradually rise in the long term, but the upside space is limited [19][20]. Summary by Directory Steel - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3129 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton (0.578%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 191,057 tons, a net increase of 6730 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.148167 million lots, a net decrease of 86,597 lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3385 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan/ton (1.074%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 24,760 tons, a net decrease of 596 tons. The position of the main contract was 778,904 lots, a net decrease of 75,256 lots [3]. - **Market Analysis**: The export volume increased slightly this week but remained in a weak and volatile pattern. The production of rebar increased, the demand improved slightly but remained weak, and the inventory continued to accumulate. For hot - rolled coils, both supply and demand declined, and the inventory continued to increase. The overall production of steel was high, while the demand was insufficient, and the steel prices were severely suppressed [4]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 790.50 yuan/ton, with a change of +1.93% (+15.00), and the position increased by 17,754 lots to 472,500 lots. The weighted position was 804,600 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 781 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 39.63 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 4.77% [6]. - **Market Analysis**: The overseas iron ore shipping rhythm was stable. The shipping volume from Australia increased, while that from Brazil declined. The near - end arrival volume decreased. The daily average pig iron output decreased due to the maintenance of some blast furnaces in North China. The profitability of steel mills continued to decline. The port inventory decreased slightly, and the inventory of imported ore in steel mills also decreased. The price of raw materials was strong, and the finished product fundamentals were relatively weak. The iron ore price was expected to be volatile in the short term [7]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price and Position Data**: On August 28, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) fluctuated and closed up 0.17% at 5842 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a premium of 48 yuan/ton over the futures price. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF511) fluctuated slightly lower and closed down 0.18% at 5624 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5800 yuan/ton, with a premium of 176 yuan/ton over the futures price [9][10]. - **Market Analysis**: The prices of ferroalloys dropped rapidly due to the weakening of the "anti - involution" sentiment. The polysilicon price was resistant to decline, and the coking coal price rebounded after a coal mine accident. It is necessary to be vigilant against the short - term repeated fluctuations in commodity sentiment. It is not recommended for speculative funds to participate excessively in the short term, while hedging funds can seize hedging opportunities. The over - supply situation of manganese silicon remained unchanged, and the supply of ferrosilicon also continued to increase [11][12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) was 8570 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.53% (+45). The weighted contract position decreased by 7663 lots to 509,097 lots. The spot price of 553 non - oxygen - permeable industrial silicon in East China was 9100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) was 49,665 yuan/ton, with a change of +2.00% (+975). The weighted contract position decreased by 13,234 lots to 321,342 lots [14][16]. - **Market Analysis**: The over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient demand of industrial silicon remained unchanged. The production of industrial silicon increased, and the support of the demand side for prices was limited. The price was expected to fluctuate within the range of 8300 - 9300 yuan/ton. The polysilicon market was in a pattern of "weak reality, strong expectation". The price was affected by news and was fluctuating and adjusting, with a support level at 47,000 yuan/ton [15][17]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Inventory Data**: The spot price of glass in Shahe was 1134 yuan, down 4 yuan from the previous day, and the price in Central China was 1070 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 62.566 million weight boxes, a net decrease of 1.04 million weight boxes (-1.63% month - on - month, -11.31% year - on - year). The spot price of soda ash was 1205 yuan, up 5 yuan from the previous day. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8675 million tons, a net decrease of 20,600 tons (a decrease of 1.09%) [19][20]. - **Market Analysis**: The glass market had a strong wait - and - see sentiment, and the price adjusted slightly. In the short term, it was expected to fluctuate weakly, and the valuation should not be overly underestimated. In the long run, it followed the macro - sentiment. The price of soda ash was expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the price center may gradually rise in the long term, but the upside space was limited [19][20].