1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - Yesterday, the steel futures market weakened with market sentiment, while the spot market remained stable. The industry showed little change, with a significant seasonal decline in apparent demand, mainly in rebar. Inventory is about to enter the off - season accumulation phase. Rebar's inventory pressure will increase in the future, while hot - rolled coil's inventory is decreasing. Before the Spring Festival, real - world demand is weak, but prices have already factored in the weak demand. The price of steel is pushed up by the strengthening of raw material prices recently, and it is expected to maintain a range - bound trend in January. The reference range for rebar May contract is 3050 - 3250 yuan, and for hot - rolled coil is 3200 - 3350 yuan [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore futures market was in high - level oscillation yesterday with a slight increase in positions. The spot market was relatively strong, but downstream steel mills still purchased on demand. In terms of fundamentals, the global iron ore shipment volume declined this period, and the shipment center will gradually decline after the end of the peak shipment season. The impact of weather on shipments is expected to be limited. On the demand side, the influence of steel mill maintenance on SMM increased slightly, and there is still room for the resumption of hot - metal production. The average hot - metal production in January is expected to be around 2.3 million tons. The export orders of finished products increased significantly, and demand is still supported. The port inventory increased significantly. In the future, iron ore will gradually transition to a situation of weak supply and demand. The price is suppressed by high inventory above and supported by steel mill restocking expectations and hot - metal production resumption below. It is expected to maintain high - level oscillation. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate in a wide range, and the trading strategy is mainly range - bound operation, with a reference range of 770 - 830 [4]. Coke Industry - Yesterday, both coke and coking coal futures showed a trend of rising and then falling. In the spot market, the fourth round of coke price cuts was implemented on January 1st, and the port price rebounded with the futures. The coke market is currently weakly stable. On the supply side, the adjustment of coke prices lags behind coking coal, and the coking profit is under pressure, but the start - up rate is increasing. On the demand side, the steel mill's losses and maintenance decreased, the hot - metal production increased steadily, and the steel price rebounded at a low level. In terms of inventory, the overall inventory of coke and coking coal increased slightly at a medium level. In terms of policy, ensuring the long - term coal supply for power plants is still the main tone. The trading strategy is to go long on dips unilaterally and consider the arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - Yesterday, the ferrosilicon futures contract was in oscillation with a slight decline, and the 03 contract continued to reduce positions. The spot price fluctuated within a limited range, and downstream buyers remained on the sidelines. In terms of fundamentals, the ferrosilicon production was basically flat, reaching a historically low level. The hot - metal production continued to resume, and there is still some support for demand. The factory inventory decreased, and the cost was supported by the strong price of manganese ore. It is recommended to go long on dips, with a support level of around 5500. The ferromanganese futures contract was also in oscillation, with supply at a historically neutral - low level. The hot - metal production continued to resume, and there is support for demand. The manganese ore price is expected to be supported by factors such as port inventory and shipping issues. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely, and it is advisable to go long on dips, with a support level of around 5800 [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China were 3300, 3210, and 3280 respectively, with changes of - 10, 10, and - 10 compared to the previous day. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts of rebar were 3158, 3202, and 3134 respectively, with changes of 14, 6, and 45. - Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China, North China, and South China were 3280, 3190, and 3280 respectively, with changes of 0, 0, and - 10. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts of hot - rolled coil were 3303, 3321, and 3280 respectively, with changes of 9, 3, and 25 [1]. Cost and Profit - The billet price was 2970 with no change, and the slab price was 3730 with no change. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar was 3232, up 16; the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar was 3223, up 2. The profit of East China hot - rolled coil was - 27, up 13; the profit of North China rebar was - 107, up 3; the profit of South China rebar was 193, up 3 [1]. Supply - The daily average hot - metal production was 229.0, up 1.6 (0.7%) from the previous day. The production of five major steel products was 818.6, up 3.4 (0.4%); rebar production was 191.0, up 2.8 (1.5%); hot - rolled coil production was 305.5, up 1.0 (0.3%) [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products was 1253.9, up 21.8 (1.8%); rebar inventory was 438.1, up 16.1 (3.8%); hot - rolled coil inventory was 368.1, down 2.8 (- 0.8%) [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume was 8.4, down 2.2 (- 20.9%); the apparent consumption of five major steel products was 796.8, down 44.2 (- 5.3%); the apparent consumption of rebar was 175.0, down 25.5 (- 12.7%); the apparent consumption of hot - rolled coil was 308.3, down 2.4 (- 0.8%) [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of Karara fines, PB fines, Brazilian mix fines, and Jinbuba fines were 878.4, 885.3, 884.1, and 922.0 respectively, with changes of - 13.1 (- 1.5%), - 2.2 (- 0.2%), - 2.2 (- 0.2%), and - 2.2 (- 0.2%) compared to the previous day. The 05 - contract basis of Karara fines, PB fines, Brazilian mix fines, and Jinbuba fines were 58.9, 0.8, 62.5, and 102.5 respectively, with changes of - 10.1 (- 14.6%), 65.0 (1.2%), 0.8 (1.4%), and 0.8 (0.8%). The 5 - 9 spread was 21.5, up 1.0 (4.9%); the 1 - 5 spread was - 74.7, down 31.0 [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) was 2920.4, up 164.0 (5.9%); the global shipment volume (weekly) was 3213.7, down 32.8 (- 1.0%); the national monthly import volume was 11054.0, down 76.9 (- 0.7%) [4]. Demand - The daily average hot - metal production of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 227.4, up 2.1 (0.9%); the 45 - port daily average ore - removal volume (weekly) was 325.2, down 1.9 (- 0.6%); the national monthly pig - iron production was 6234.3, down 320.6 (- 4.9%); the national monthly crude - steel production was 6987.1, down 212.6 (- 3.0%) [4]. Inventory Change - The 45 - port inventory (weekly) was 16275.26, up 304.4 (1.9%); the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 8989.6, up 43.0 (0.5%); the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) was 19.0, down 1.0 (- 5.0%) [4]. Coke Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) was 2224, up 13; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) was 1745, up 22. The coke 05, 09 contracts were 1745, 1824 respectively, with changes of - 25 (- 1.4%) and - 20 (- 1.1%). The 05 - 09 spread was - 79, down 5 [6]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse - receipt) was 1260 with no change; the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal (warehouse - receipt) was 1259, up 24 (1.9%). The coking coal 05, 09 contracts were 1191, 1268 respectively, with changes of - 47 (- 3.8%) and - 43 (- 3.2%). The JM05 - JM09 spread was - 77, down 5 [6]. Supply - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants (weekly) was 62.7, up 0.9 (1.4%); the daily average production of 247 steel mills was 46.9, up 0.1 (0.1%); the raw - coal production was 853.4, down 2.7 (- 0.3%); the clean - coal production was 438.2, down 0.6 (- 0.1%) [6]. Demand - The hot - metal production of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 229.5, up 2.1 (0.9%); the daily average production of all - sample coking plants was 63.6, up 0.9 (1.4%); the daily average production of 247 steel mills was 46.9, up 0.1 (0.1%) [6]. Inventory Change - The total coke inventory was 915.7, up 0.2 (0.0%); the coke inventory of all - sample coking plants was 86.1, down 5.5 (- 6.0%); the coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 645.7, up 1.7 (0.3%); the coking - coal inventory of all - sample coking plants was 1071.7, up 12.0 (1.2%); the coking - coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 797.7, down 4.5 (- 0.6%); the port inventory was 299.8, down 1.5 (- 0.5%) [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Spot Prices and Spreads - The closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract was 5682.0, down 16.0 (- 0.3%); the closing price of the ferromanganese main contract was 5916.0, down 14.0 (- 0.2%). The spot prices of 72% FeSi in Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Ningxia, and Gansu were 5350.0, 5300.0, 5320.0, and 5300.0 respectively, with no changes. The spot prices of FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, Ningxia, and Guizhou were 5750.0, 5850.0, 5650.0, and 5800.0 respectively, with increases of 50.0 (0.9%), 50.0 (0.9%), 0.0 (0.0%), and 50.0 (0.9%) [7]. Cost and Profit - The production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia was 5882.9, up 38.1 (0.7%); the production cost in Guangxi was 6236.3 with no change; the production cost in Qinghai was 5831.0 with no change; the production cost in Ningxia was 5433.0 with no change. The production profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia was - 132.9, up 11.9; the production profit in Ningxia was - 113.0 with no change [7]. Supply - The weekly production of ferrosilicon was 0.0, up 0.2 (0.2%); the weekly production of ferromanganese was 19.1, down 0.3 (- 1.4%). The operating rate of ferrosilicon production enterprises (weekly) was 29.6, up 0.1 (0.3%); the operating rate of ferromanganese was 36.8, down 0.1 (- 0.2%) [7]. Demand - The weekly demand for ferrosilicon (estimated by Steel Union) was 1.9, up 0.0 (0.1%); the weekly demand for ferromanganese (estimated by Steel Union) was 11.6, up 0.1 (0.7%). The daily average hot - metal production of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 229.5, up 2.1 (0.9%); the blast - furnace operating rate (weekly) was 79.3, up 0.4 (0.5%); the production of five major steel products (weekly) was 818.6, up 3.4 (0.4%) [7]. Inventory Change - The inventory of 60 sample ferrosilicon enterprises (weekly) was 6.9, up 0.5 (7.1%); the inventory of 63 sample ferromanganese enterprises (weekly) was 38.3, down 1.1 (- 2.8%). The average available days of ferrosilicon for downstream users (monthly) was 15.4, down 0.4 (- 2.5%); the average available days of ferromanganese inventory (monthly) was 16, up 0.1 (0.9%) [7].

Group 1 - Investment Rating: Not provided Group 2 - Core View: Not provided Group 3 Spot Market - Newman powder price is 818, with a daily change of -2 and a weekly change of 16, and the import profit is 15.26 [1] - PB powder price is 826, with a daily change of -2 and a weekly change of 16 [1] - Macarthur powder price is 828, with a daily change of -2 and a weekly change of 16, and the import profit is 49.79 [1] - Jinbuba powder price is 779, with a daily change of -2 and a weekly change of 16, and the import profit is 50.63 [1] - Mixed powder price is 757, with a daily change of -8 and a weekly change of 10, and the import profit is 4.11 [1] - Super Special powder price is 703, with a daily change of -2 and a weekly change of 15, and the import profit is 5.78 [1] - Carajás powder price is 908, with a daily change of -12 and a weekly change of 7, and the import profit is -14.76 [1] - Brazilian blended powder price is 863, with a daily change of -2 and a weekly change of 12, and the import profit is 13.27 [1] - Brazilian coarse IOC6 price is 790, with a daily change of -2 and a weekly change of 16 [1] - Brazilian coarse SSFG price is 795, with a daily change of -2 and a weekly change of 16 [1] - Ukrainian iron concentrate price is 909, with a daily change of -2 and a weekly change of 20 [1] - 61% Indian powder price is 768, with a daily change of -2 and a weekly change of 16 [1] - Karara iron concentrate price is 909, with a daily change of -2 and a weekly change of 19 [1] - Roy Hill powder price is 813, with a daily change of -2 and a weekly change of 16, and the import profit is 61.98 [1] - KUMBA powder price is 885, with a daily change of -2 and a weekly change of 16 [1] - 57% Indian powder price is 638, with a daily change of -2 and a weekly change of 15 [1] - Atlas powder price is 752, with a daily change of -8 and a weekly change of 10 [1] - Tangshan iron concentrate price is 982, with no daily change and a weekly change of 6 [1] Futures Market - i2601 contract price is 830.0, with a daily change of -34.0 and a weekly change of 4.0, and the monthly spread is -32.0 [1] - i2605 contract price is 819.5, with a daily change of -3.0 and a weekly change of 18.5, and the monthly spread is 10.5 [1] - i2609 contract price is 798.0, with a daily change of -4.0 and a weekly change of 18.0, and the monthly spread is 21.5 [1] - FE01 contract price is 108.89, with a daily change of 0.55 and a weekly change of 2.92, and the monthly spread is -2.49 [1] - FE05 contract price is 108.24, with a daily change of 1.10 and a weekly change of 3.51, and the monthly spread is 0.65 [1] - FE09 contract price is 106.40, with a daily change of 1.21 and a weekly change of 3.60, and the monthly spread is 1.84 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Steel: The demand for rebar weakens seasonally as construction in the north halts, and the destocking slope of hot-rolled coils slows down and is expected to turn into inventory accumulation. The supply fundamentals weaken as the iron water output rebounds and the steel mill profits improve, leading to a month-on-month increase in both outputs. The support from furnace materials and its low valuation limit the downside space. The iron ore replenishment expectation supports the ore price, but the accumulation of port inventories restricts the increase. Coking coal prices rise due to production cut news, but the inventory base is relatively large, and both are expected to remain volatile in the short term [3]. - Iron Ore: The price rises due to capital spill - over, but the fundamentals are weak. The supply side has neutral shipments, high floating inventories at sea, and continuous arrival pressure, with abundant spot goods. On the demand side, although the iron water output has bottomed out and rebounded, the steel market has entered the off - season, and the rebar inventory is accumulating at an accelerated pace, making it difficult to support a continuous and substantial increase in iron water production. The port inventory has exceeded 170 million tons and continues to accumulate, resulting in a deviation between price and fundamentals [20]. - Coal and Coke: The domestic mines continue to resume production, and the number of Mongolian coal customs clearance vehicles at the import end has declined but remains at a high level year - on - year. The price difference between Australian coal at home and abroad is inverted, leading to a possible decline in subsequent arrivals. The iron water output of steel mills has stabilized and rebounded, increasing procurement demand. The start of winter storage and the rebound of the futures market have driven the release of speculative demand, and many coking enterprises have initiated price increases. There is a structural surplus in supply and demand, but the degree is limited, and macro - sentiment is the core driver [30]. - Ferroalloys: Ferrosilicon has started to accumulate inventory, and the inventory of ferromanganese has decreased month - on - month, but the inventory base is still relatively large. The supply pressure of ferroalloys is high, but the cost side provides support. In the short term, after the correction, ferroalloys are expected to show a bottom - oscillating trend [46]. - Soda Ash: The previous increase in commodity sentiment has driven up low - valued varieties, and the futures market has risen, with mid - stream replenishment of soda ash. Fundamentally, as new production capacity gradually releases output, the daily production of soda ash has reached a new high, and the expectation of oversupply is intensifying. The medium - to - long - term supply of soda ash is expected to remain high. The photovoltaic glass has started to accumulate inventory at a low level, and the daily melting volume is relatively stable, with the heavy - soda balance remaining in surplus. In November, the soda ash export was close to 190,000 tons, remaining at a high level, which continues to relieve domestic pressure to some extent. The high inventory of the upper and middle reaches restricts the price of soda ash [60]. - Glass: Before the Spring Festival, there are still some glass production lines waiting to be cold - repaired, which may affect the far - month pricing and market expectations. In addition, the policy's impact on supply cannot be ruled out. In reality, regardless of the change in supply expectations, the high inventory of the glass mid - stream needs to be digested, and the spot market is under pressure as the terminal has entered the off - season [82]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel - **Prices and Spreads**: On January 13, 2026, the closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts showed certain changes compared with the previous day. For example, the rebar 01 contract closed at 3134 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan from the previous day. The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions also had slight fluctuations. The basis and spreads between different contracts also changed [4][8][10]. Iron Ore - **Prices**: On January 13, 2026, the closing prices of iron ore contracts decreased compared with the previous day. For example, the 01 contract closed at 830 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan from the previous day. The basis also changed, with the 01 basis at - 35 yuan, down 5 yuan from the previous day [21]. - **Fundamentals**: As of January 9, 2026, the average daily iron water output was 2295,000 tons, up 20,700 tons week - on - week. The 45 - port inventory was 162.7526 million tons, up 3.0437 million tons week - on - week [25]. Coal and Coke - **Prices and Spreads**: On January 13, 2026, the spreads between different contracts of coking coal and coke changed. For example, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread was 167 yuan, up 57 yuan from the previous day. The coking profit on the futures market was - 42 yuan, up 36.912 yuan from the previous day [31][33]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions and varieties had different changes. For example, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur primary coking coal remained at 1500 yuan/ton, and the self - pick - up price of Mongolian 5 raw coal at the 288 port was 1069 yuan/ton, up 116 yuan week - on - week [35]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: On January 13, 2026, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was - 12 yuan, up 16 yuan from the previous day. The silicon iron 01 - 05 spread was - 138 yuan, up 5536 yuan from the previous day [47]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 184 yuan, up 64 yuan from the previous day. The silicon manganese 01 - 05 spread was - 80 yuan, down 50 yuan from the previous day [48]. Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: On January 13, 2026, the soda ash 05 contract closed at 1212 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan from the previous day, a decrease of 2.18%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 61 yuan, up 2 yuan from the previous day [61]. - **Fundamentals**: New production capacity is gradually releasing output, and the daily production of soda ash has reached a new high. The inventory of the upper and middle reaches remains high, and the export volume in November was close to 190,000 tons [60]. Glass - **Prices and Spreads**: On January 13, 2026, the glass 05 contract closed at 1096 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan from the previous day, a decrease of 4.11%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 112 yuan, down 14 yuan from the previous day [83]. - **Sales and Production**: The daily sales - to - production ratios in different regions such as Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China showed certain fluctuations from January 2 to January 8, 2026 [84].

Core Viewpoint - Hainan Mining's stock price has experienced fluctuations, with a recent decline of 2.05%, and the company reported a total market capitalization of 22.94 billion yuan as of January 13. The company has seen a year-to-date stock price drop of 3.37% but a significant increase of 25.46% over the past 60 days [1]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Hainan Mining achieved a revenue of 3.36 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.93%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 42.84% to 312 million yuan [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 993 million yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 657 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Shareholder and Market Activity - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased by 8.38% to 50,600, while the average number of circulating shares per person decreased by 7.74% to 39,072 shares [2]. - The top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which increased its holdings by 2.11 million shares, and new entrant Guotai CSI Steel ETF, holding 606,240 shares [3].

Core Viewpoint - The iron ore market is experiencing a high-level fluctuation with strong performance in the spot market, while downstream steel mills continue to purchase based on demand [4] Supply - Global iron ore shipments have slightly decreased but remain at historically high levels, with a total of 32.8 million tons shipped, down by 0.1% [3] - Shipments from Australia and Brazil totaled 26.06 million tons, a decrease of 136.4 thousand tons, with Australian shipments at 19.32 million tons, down by 8.0 thousand tons [3] - The volume of iron ore arriving at 45 ports increased by 164 thousand tons to 29.2 million tons [3] Demand - Daily average pig iron production is 2.295 million tons, an increase of 20.7 thousand tons [3] - The blast furnace operating rate is 79.31%, up by 0.37% [3] - Steel mill profitability is at 37.66%, a decrease of 0.44% [3] Inventory - As of January 8, port inventory stands at 162.75 million tons, an increase of 3.04 million tons [3] - Steel mills' imported ore inventory increased by 43 thousand tons to 89.8959 million tons [3] Market Outlook - The iron ore market is expected to transition from a state of supply-demand balance to a situation of both supply and demand weakness, with high inventory levels exerting pressure on prices [4] - Short-term price fluctuations are anticipated, with a trading range expected between 770 and 830 [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel**: The steel market shows that the spot price of steel has increased, and the cost and profit situation is mixed. The fundamental apparent demand has decreased seasonally, mainly due to the decline in the apparent demand for rebar. Inventory is about to enter the off - season inventory accumulation trend. The price is expected to maintain an interval shock in January. The reference range for the May contract of rebar is 3050 - 3250 yuan, and that for hot - rolled coils is 3200 - 3350 yuan [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market has a high - level shock in the main contract. The supply side's global shipment volume has declined, and the demand side's molten iron continues to resume production. The inventory is expected to continue to accumulate in the short term. The price is expected to maintain a high - level shock, with a short - term wide - range shock, and the strategy is interval operation, with a reference range of 770 - 830 [4]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The coke futures continue to rise, and the market is weakly stable. The supply side's production has increased, and the demand side's molten iron production has recovered. The inventory has increased slightly in the middle position. The strategy is to go long on the dips and pay attention to the arbitrage of long coking coal and short coke. The coking coal futures also continue to rise, with the supply side's production increasing slightly and the demand side's demand for replenishment warming up. The inventory has also increased slightly in the middle position, and the strategy is the same as that for coke [6]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: The silicon iron main contract has a small increase, with production basically flat and at a low level in the same period of history. The demand has support, and the inventory has decreased. The cost has certain support, and it can be tried to go long on the dips, with a support level of about 5500. The silicon manganese main contract has a small increase, with supply at a low - to - medium level in the same period of history. The manganese ore price provides support, and it is expected to be in a wide - range shock, and it can be tried to go long on the dips, with a support level of about 5800 [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Price and Spread**: The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions have increased or remained unchanged, and the futures prices have small fluctuations. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China is 3310 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from the previous day [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The billet price has decreased by 10 yuan to 2970 yuan, and the profits of different regions and varieties of steel are different. For example, the profit of rebar in East China is - 20 yuan, down 40 yuan [1]. - **Output**: The daily average molten iron output is 229.0 tons, up 0.7% from the previous day. The output of five major steel products is 818.6 tons, up 0.4%. The output of rebar is 191.0 tons, up 1.5%, and the output of hot - rolled coils is 305.5 tons, up 0.3% [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products is 1253.9 tons, up 1.8%. The inventory of rebar is 438.1 tons, up 3.8%, and the inventory of hot - rolled coils is 368.1 tons, down 0.8% [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: The building materials trading volume is 10.6 tons, up 18.5%. The apparent demand of five major steel products is 796.8 tons, down 5.3%. The apparent demand of rebar is 175.0 tons, down 12.7%, and the apparent demand of hot - rolled coils is 308.3 tons, down 0.8% [1]. Iron Ore - **Price and Spread**: The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders have increased, and the basis of the 05 contract has decreased. For example, the warehouse - receipt cost of PB powder is 887.5 yuan/ton, up 0.7%. The 05 - contract basis of PB powder is 65.0 yuan/ton, down 2.1% [4]. - **Supply**: The 45 - port arrival volume is 2920.4 tons, up 5.9%, and the global shipment volume is 3213.7 tons, down 1.0%. The national monthly import volume is 11054.0 tons, down 0.7% [4]. - **Demand**: The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills is 229.5 tons, up 0.9%. The 45 - port daily average desulfurization volume is 323.3 tons, down 0.6%. The national monthly pig iron output is 6234.3 tons, down 4.9%, and the national monthly crude steel output is 6987.1 tons, down 3.0% [4]. - **Inventory**: The 45 - port inventory is 16275.26 tons, up 1.9%. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills is 8989.6 tons, up 0.5%. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills is 19.0 days, down 5.0% [4]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Price and Spread**: The prices of coke and coking coal futures and spot have increased. For example, the 05 - contract price of coke is 1770 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan. The 05 - contract price of coking coal is 1238 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan [6]. - **Supply**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants is 63.6 tons, up 1.4%, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills is 46.9 tons, up 0.1%. The raw coal output is 853.4 tons, down 0.3% [6]. - **Demand**: The molten iron output of 247 steel mills is 229.5 tons, up 0.9%. The demand for coke is related to the production of steel mills [6]. - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory is 915.7 tons, up 0.0%. The inventory of all - sample coking plants is 86.1 tons, down 6.0%. The inventory of 247 steel mills is 645.7 tons, up 0.3%. The inventory of coking coal has different changes in different sectors [6]. Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese - **Price and Spread**: The closing prices of the main contracts of silicon iron and silicon manganese have increased. For example, the closing price of the silicon iron main contract is 5930 yuan/ton, up 1.24%. The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese in different regions have decreased [7]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production costs of different regions of silicon iron and silicon manganese are different, and the production profits have decreased. For example, the production profit of silicon iron in Inner Mongolia is - 192.0 yuan/ton, down 35.24% [7]. - **Supply**: The production of silicon iron is basically flat, and the production of silicon manganese has decreased slightly. The production of silicon iron products is 9.9 tons, up 0.2%, and the weekly output of silicon manganese is 19.1 tons, down 1.4% [7]. - **Demand**: The demand for silicon iron and silicon manganese is related to the molten iron output and the production of steel products. The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills is 229.5 tons, up 0.9% [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of silicon iron in 60 sample enterprises is 6.9 tons, up 7.1%. The inventory of 63 sample enterprises of silicon manganese is 38.3 tons, down 2.8% [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The black market is in the off - season of consumption, with both supply and demand being weak. The winter storage still takes some time. The strong rise of the stock market and optimistic policy expectations boost confidence, but the "anti - involution" expectation decline affects market sentiment [2] - For iron ore, the current market is in the consumption off - season, and the iron - water output is likely to decline seasonally. Although the iron - water output of 247 sample steel mills rebounded last week, it is expected to be a short - term phenomenon. The increase in port inventory suppresses the futures price, while the sharp rebound of coking coal and coke supports the iron ore price. A medium - level upward trend is unfolding [3] Summary by Directory I. Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the output of threaded rods increased, the overall inventory continued to decline, the apparent demand for threaded rods decreased, the overall apparent demand for the five major varieties declined, the inventory increased, and the output increased slightly. The steel mill output may continue to decline in the off - season [2] - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions and conduct medium - term trading. Avoid chasing up or selling down [2] - **Data**: - **Prices**: The closing prices of the main contracts of threaded rods and hot - rolled coils increased, and the spot prices also showed an upward trend [2] - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of the main contracts of threaded rods and hot - rolled coils changed, and the spreads between different futures contracts also changed [2] - **Other Prices**: The prices of wire rods, medium - thick plates, and cold - rolled coils changed slightly, while the price of Tangshan billets decreased and the price of Zhangjiagang scrap steel increased slightly [2] - **Production**: The blast furnace operating rate and daily iron - water output of 247 steel mills increased, the proportion of profitable steel mills decreased, the output of threaded rods and hot - rolled coils increased, the capacity utilization rate and operating rate of independent electric - arc furnace steel mills increased, and the output of electric - arc furnace steel mill threaded rods increased significantly [2] - **Inventory**: The social and steel mill inventories of the five major varieties and threaded rods increased, the social inventory of hot - rolled coils increased, and the steel mill inventory decreased. The billet inventory in the Tangshan area increased significantly [2] - **Trading Volume**: The 7 - day moving average of the national building steel trading volume decreased, and the weekly wire and screw terminal procurement volume in Shanghai increased significantly [2] - **Apparent Demand**: The apparent demand for the five major varieties and threaded rods decreased, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased slightly [2] - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The number of registered warehouse receipts for threaded rods decreased, and that for hot - rolled coils increased [2] II. Iron Ore - **Demand and Supply**: The overall output of the five major steel products increased last week, but the apparent demand decreased. The iron - water output is likely to decline seasonally. The global shipment decreased, and the increasing port inventory suppresses the futures price. The sharp rebound of coking coal and coke supports the iron ore price [3] - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions and conduct medium - term trading [3] - **Data**: - **Prices**: The settlement prices of iron ore spot and futures contracts increased, and the prices of different iron ore varieties in ports also increased [4] - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis and spreads between different iron ore futures contracts changed [4] - **Shipment and Freight**: The Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments decreased, and the BCI freight rates and exchange rates changed [4] - **Arrival and Port Inventory**: The arrival volume of iron ore in northern six ports decreased, the average daily port clearance volume decreased, and the total port inventory and port trade ore inventory increased, while the sinter powder inventory of 64 sample steel mills decreased [4] - **Domestic Production**: The iron - concentrate output of national sample mines increased [4] - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The number of iron ore futures warehouse receipts decreased [4] III. Industry News - The Dalian Commodity Exchange issued an announcement on publicly soliciting opinions on adjusting the reference standard for inspection methods in the iron ore delivery quality standard [6] - From January 5th to January 11th, 2026, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China increased, while that at the northern six ports decreased. The global iron ore shipment decreased [6] - The online auction non - delivery rate of coking coal decreased last week, and the auction prices mostly declined [6] - Handan launched a level - II emergency response for heavy pollution weather on January 12th, expected to be lifted around January 17th [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was positive yesterday, but the black - series commodities still oscillated at the bottom. The actual terminal demand for steel remains weak, and the short - term macro level is in a policy window period. Future attention should be paid to the de - stocking of hot - rolled coils, the strengthening of "dual - carbon" policies, and their marginal impact on the supply - demand pattern of the steel industry [3]. - With the end of the year - end shipping rush by mines, the overseas iron ore shipping volume has continued to decline. The daily average pig iron output has increased, and the port inventory has continued to accumulate. The iron ore price is expected to oscillate at a relatively high level in the short term, and future attention should be paid to the steel mills' restocking and pig iron production rhythm [6]. - The commodity bullish sentiment may continue, especially in the non - ferrous and precious metal sectors. However, the short - term high - volatility risk caused by sentiment leaders such as silver and lithium carbonate should be guarded against. The future market trends of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon are mainly affected by the overall market sentiment, cost - push factors of manganese ore, and supply - contraction expectations [10][11]. - The bullish sentiment in the commodity market may continue to support the rebound of coking coal and coke. However, the short - term high - volatility risk should be guarded against. The supply - demand structure of coking coal and coke is relatively balanced, and the downstream inventory is low, with a certain restocking tendency. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [17]. - The industrial silicon price is expected to be under pressure, and attention should be paid to whether there are new supply - side disturbances in the northwest. The polysilicon price is expected to consolidate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the actual spot transactions and official policies [20][23]. - The glass price has been boosted by the reduction in melting volume and the increase in fuel costs, but the high inventory restricts the upward space. The soda ash supply is under pressure, the demand is weak, and the market remains weak [26][28]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3165 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton (0.667%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 1212 tons to 54421 tons, and the main contract positions increased by 11840 lots to 172.67 million lots. The Tianjin aggregated price of rebar was 3200 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3310 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3311 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton (0.516%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 112237 tons, and the main contract positions increased by 10408 lots to 142.75 million lots. The Lecong aggregated price of hot - rolled coils was 3290 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3290 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [2]. Strategy Views - The hot - rolled coil production increased slightly, demand continued to weaken, and inventory continued to decline slightly. The rebar production increased against the season, demand declined, and inventory increased slightly. The black - series commodities are sensitive to news changes, and future attention should be paid to the hot - rolled coil de - stocking, "dual - carbon" policies, and their impact on the supply - demand pattern [3]. Iron Ore Market Quotes - The iron ore main contract (I2605) closed at 822.50 yuan/ton, up 0.98% (8.00 yuan). The positions increased by 14950 lots to 65.48 million lots. The weighted positions were 98.37 million lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 829 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 59.09 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 6.70% [5]. Strategy Views - Supply: The overseas iron ore shipping volume has continued to decline, with a large drop in Brazilian shipments. The shipments of Rio Tinto and BHP decreased, and the shipments from non - mainstream countries increased. The near - term arrivals continued to increase. - Demand: The daily average pig iron output was 229.5 tons, continuing to rise. The blast furnace utilization rate increased, and the steel mill profitability decreased slightly. - Inventory: The port inventory continued to accumulate, higher than the same period in previous years. The steel mills' imported ore inventory increased but remained at a low level, with a certain restocking demand. The ore price is expected to oscillate at a relatively high level in the short term, and future attention should be paid to the steel mills' restocking and pig iron production rhythm [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - On January 12, the manganese silicon main contract (SM603) closed up 0.44% at 5930 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5750 yuan/ton, with a basis of 10 yuan/ton. The ferrosilicon main contract (SF603) closed up 1.17% at 5698 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5850 yuan/ton, with a basis of 152 yuan/ton [9]. Strategy Views - The commodity bullish sentiment may continue, but the short - term high - volatility risk should be guarded against. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is still unfavorable, but most factors have been priced in. The supply - demand structure of ferrosilicon is basically balanced, with marginal improvement. Future market trends are mainly affected by the overall market sentiment, cost - push factors of manganese ore, and supply - contraction expectations [10][11]. Coking Coal and Coke Market Quotes - On January 12, the coking coal main contract (JM2605) closed up 3.55% at 1238.0 yuan/ton. The coke main contract (J2605) closed up 1.26% at 1770.0 yuan/ton [13]. Strategy Views - The recent strength of coking coal was driven by the positive commodity market sentiment and the news of capacity reduction in Yulin. The commodity bullish sentiment may continue to support the rebound of coking coal and coke, but the short - term high - volatility risk should be guarded against. The supply - demand structure is relatively balanced, and the downstream inventory is low, with a certain restocking tendency. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [16][17]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Quotes - Industrial silicon: The main contract (SI2605) closed at 8755 yuan/ton, up 0.46% (40 yuan). The weighted positions decreased by 4994 lots to 374981 lots. The spot price of 553 in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of 445 yuan/ton; the 421 price was 9650 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of 95 yuan/ton [19]. - Polysilicon: The main contract (PS2605) closed at 49995 yuan/ton, down 2.54% (1305 yuan). The weighted positions decreased by 6218 lots to 91068 lots. The average spot price of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material was unchanged, with a basis of 5005 yuan/ton [21]. Strategy Views - Industrial silicon: The production in December was stable. The supply improvement was limited, and the demand from polysilicon and organic silicon was weak. The price is expected to be under pressure, and attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [20]. - Polysilicon: The market was affected by anti - monopoly concerns and production reduction rumors. The price is expected to consolidate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the actual spot transactions and official policies [22][23]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Quotes - Glass: The main contract closed at 1143 yuan/ton, down 0.09% (1 yuan). The inventory decreased by 134.80 million boxes to 5551.8 million boxes. The positions of the top 20 long - holders decreased by 1305 lots, and the positions of the top 20 short - holders increased by 7357 lots [25]. - Soda ash: The main contract closed at 1239 yuan/ton, up 0.90% (11 yuan). The inventory increased by 16.44 tons to 157.27 tons. The positions of the top 20 long - holders increased by 2976 lots, and the positions of the top 20 short - holders increased by 17392 lots [27]. Strategy Views - Glass: The melting volume decreased, and the fuel cost increased, boosting the price. However, the high inventory restricted the upward space. Future attention should be paid to inventory digestion and actual transactions [26]. - Soda ash: The supply was stable, and the new production capacity was put into operation. The demand from photovoltaic and float glass decreased, and the inventory continued to accumulate. The market remained weak [28].

Group 1: Policy and Market Developments - The commodity spot market is experiencing favorable policies, strengthening the foundation for "spot market-based and enhancing futures-spot linkage" [1] - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments issued a plan to cultivate around 100 leading digital supply chain enterprises by 2030, integrating AI and big data into the supply chain [2] - The national carbon emissions trading market expanded to include steel, cement, and aluminum industries, marking a strategic shift towards multi-industry regulation [3] - The Ministry of Commerce encouraged the development of capacity pre-sale and order trading models to innovate trading practices in the commodity market [4] Group 2: Strategic Industry Focus - Rare earths have become a focal point in international competition, with export controls implemented on several rare earth items as a countermeasure against U.S. trade policies [5] - The establishment of the Zhejiang International Commodity Trading Center aims to integrate various trading resources and expand from oil and gas to multiple commodity categories [6][7] - Zhejiang's government issued a plan to create an integrated off-market for commodity futures and spot trading, enhancing resource allocation capabilities [8] Group 3: Regional Initiatives and Innovations - Hangzhou's government launched a three-year action plan to enhance the quality and scale of commodity trade, aiming to position the city as a national commodity trade center [9] - Tianjin has created a favorable policy environment for local commodity trading platforms, facilitating rapid approval for new models and products [10] - The Hainan Free Trade Port's full island closure operation is expected to provide unprecedented opportunities for commodity flow, with a significant expansion of zero-tariff items [11] - Hong Kong is accelerating the development of a commodity trading ecosystem, with initiatives including tax incentives and the establishment of delivery points for global trading [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - The current demand for steel is weak, and prices have fully priced in the weak demand. Before the holiday, attention should be paid to the impact of policies on the expected demand for steel. In December, steel prices fluctuated with the rhythm of raw material prices and maintained a sideways trend. With significant steel production cuts, the downward driving force is not strong, but the weak demand expectation for the May contract restricts the upward price space. The upward elasticity depends on changes in the raw material supply side. Overall, it is expected to fluctuate within a range in January. The reference range for the May contract of rebar is 3050 - 3250 yuan, and for hot - rolled coils is 3200 - 3350 yuan [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The fundamental pattern of iron ore has shifted to a situation of weak supply and demand. The price ceiling is suppressed by high inventories, and there is support from the expected restocking of steel mills below. In terms of supply, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased this period, and the mine's fiscal year impulse is basically over. Future focus should be on the weather in the Southern Hemisphere. On the demand side, the hot - metal production continued to resume, and the resumption speed accelerated. The iron ore inventory in ports increased significantly this week, and it is expected to continue to accumulate in the short term. In the future, iron ore will gradually transition from a situation of loose supply - demand to weak supply - demand. During the off - season, attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and policy expectations. It is expected that iron ore prices will fluctuate widely in the short term [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coking coal, last week, the coking coal futures fluctuated upward. The spot prices of Shanxi increased more than decreased, and the Mongolian coal quotes rebounded following the futures. The supply side has entered the resumption stage, with improved shipments but still inventory accumulation. The demand side has seen a decrease in steel mill losses and an increase in hot - metal production, and the restocking demand has improved. For coke, last week, the coke futures also fluctuated upward. After the fourth round of price cuts on January 1st, the coke market is currently weakly stable. The supply side has a lag in coke price adjustment compared to coking coal, with pressured coking profits and increased production starts. The demand side has seen an increase in hot - metal production and a rebound in steel prices. In terms of inventory, the overall inventory has slightly increased. For both, the one - sided strategy suggests going long on dips, and the arbitrage strategy is to go long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - For ferrosilicon, the supply - demand situation has marginally improved, and there is support from the cost side. The supply is at a relatively low level in the same period of history, and the production in Inner Mongolia is stable with new capacity put into operation at the end of last year, so there is still room for short - term production growth. The demand for steelmaking has support, and the demand for ferrosilicon from the metal magnesium industry is also strong. It is expected that the price will fluctuate within the range of 5500 - 6200 yuan, and short - term attention should be paid to macro, policy expectations, and cost - side changes. For ferromanganese, it is in a state of self - oversupply but overall balance of manganese elements. The manganese ore provides support for the price, and there is also support from off - season demand. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely, and the strategy suggests range - bound operations with a reference range of 5800 - 6300 yuan [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in various regions and contract prices all decreased compared to the previous day. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China decreased from 3320 yuan to 3290 yuan, and the 05 - contract price of hot - rolled coils decreased from 3332 yuan to 3294 yuan [1]. Cost and Profit - The prices of steel billets and slabs remained unchanged. The cost of Jiangsu's electric - arc furnace rebar increased by 3 yuan, while the cost of converter rebar decreased by 17 yuan. The profits of hot - rolled coils in East and North China decreased, while the profit of rebar in North China increased by 28 yuan [1]. Production - The daily average hot - metal production increased by 1.6 to 229.0, a 0.7% increase. The production of the five major steel products increased by 3.4 to 818.6, a 0.4% increase. The production of rebar increased by 2.8 to 191.0, a 1.5% increase, with the electric - arc furnace production increasing by 6.6% and the converter production increasing by 0.5%. The production of hot - rolled coils increased by 1.0 to 305.5, a 0.3% increase [1]. Inventory - The inventory of the five major steel products increased by 21.8 to 1253.9, a 1.8% increase. The rebar inventory increased by 16.1 to 438.1, a 3.8% increase, while the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 2.8 to 368.1, a 0.8% decrease [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 0.5 to 8.9, a 6.6% increase. The apparent demand for the five major steel products decreased by 44.2 to 796.8, a 5.3% decrease. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 25.5 to 175.0, a 12.7% decrease, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased by 2.4 to 308.3, a 0.8% decrease [1]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders increased slightly, and the 05 - contract basis of some powders changed slightly. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 0.5 to 21.5, a 2.4% increase, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 7.5 to 37.5, a 16.7% decrease [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume increased by 155.0 to 2756.4, a 6.0% increase, while the global shipment volume decreased by 463.4 to 3213.7, a 12.6% decrease. The national monthly import volume decreased by 76.9 to 11054.0, a 0.7% decrease [4]. Demand - The 247 - steel - mill daily average hot - metal production increased by 2.1 to 229.5, a 0.9% increase. The 45 - port daily average ore - removal volume decreased by 1.9 to 323.3, a 0.6% decrease. The national monthly pig - iron production decreased by 320.6 to 6234.3, a 4.9% decrease, and the national monthly crude - steel production decreased by 212.6 to 6987.1, a 3.0% decrease [4]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory increased by 304.4 to 16275.26, a 1.9% increase. The 247 - steel - mill imported ore inventory increased by 43.0 to 8989.6, a 0.5% increase, and the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 1.0 to 19.0, a 5.0% decrease [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - The prices of coke and coking coal contracts decreased slightly. The coking profit decreased by 11, and the sample coal - mine profit decreased by 26, a 5.14% decrease [6]. Supply - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.9 to 63.6, a 1.4% increase, and the 247 - steel - mill daily average production increased by 0.1 to 46.9, a 0.1% increase. The raw - coal production decreased by 2.7 to 853.4, a 0.3% decrease [6]. Demand - The 247 - steel - mill hot - metal production increased by 2.1 to 229.5, a 0.9% increase [6]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory increased slightly. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 5.5 to 86.1, a 6.0% decrease, and the 247 - steel - mill coke inventory increased by 1.7 to 645.7, a 0.3% increase. The coking - coal inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 4.5 to 797.7, a 0.64% decrease [6]. Supply - Demand Gap - The calculated coke supply - demand gap decreased from - 0.6 to - 0.7, a 15.1% decrease [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese decreased. The ferrosilicon main - contract closing price decreased by 36.0 to 5632.0, a 0.6% decrease, and the ferromanganese main - contract closing price increased by 12.0 to 5904.0, a 0.24% increase [7]. Cost and Profit - The production costs of ferrosilicon in some regions remained unchanged, and the production profit in Inner Mongolia decreased. The production costs of ferromanganese in some regions changed slightly, and the manganese - ore supply indicators such as shipment volume, arrival volume, and removal volume increased [7]. Supply - The ferrosilicon production enterprise's operating rate increased slightly, and the weekly ferromanganese production decreased by 0.3 to 19.1, a 1.4% decrease [7]. Demand - The demand for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese from the steel - making industry has support. The 247 - steel - mill daily average hot - metal production increased by 2.1 to 229.5, a 0.9% increase [7]. Inventory Changes - The ferrosilicon inventory of 60 sample enterprises increased by 0.5 to 6.9, a 7.1% increase, and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises of ferromanganese decreased by 1.1 to 38.3, a 2.8% decrease [7].