本文来自格隆汇专栏：国泰海通策略方奕，作者：方奕、张逸飞、陶前陈、苏徽 摘要 在较长时间的横盘震荡后，中国"转型牛"将重振旗鼓，拾级而上。11月24日上证指数跌至3800点悲观之际，国泰海通策略团队判断"关键位置：进入击球 区，布出先手棋"，近两周以来创业板指已基本收复失地。对于后市，国泰海通比市场共识更乐观：部分投资者以"跨周期"解读政策不积极存在谬误， 2025年超常规是相较以2024年尾部风险暴露。面向2026年，中央经济工作会议明确"巩固拓展经济稳中向好势头"，并要求财政政策"更加积极"与"内需主 导"，首次提出"推动投资止跌回稳"（2025年负增长），并时隔十年重提房地产"去库存"；中财办副主任韩文秀表示将根据形势变化出台实施增量政策， 继续实施"国补"与靠前实施"十五五"重点项目，隐含了实现"十五五"良好开局的开门红重要性。考虑近期经济活动转淡与房地产销售面积下滑加快，政策 预期有望上修。在人民币稳定的前提下，2026年初中国央行降息预期有望提高。在交易层面，保收益降仓位已经步入尾声，岁末年初的再配置与机构资金 回流有望改善市场流动性和活跃成交，跨年攻势已经开始了。 春季行情规律：大盘搭台小盘唱戏 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the spring market rally is expected to occur, driven by policy expectations, seasonal liquidity changes, and institutional repositioning, despite recent market adjustments [1][5] - Strong expectations are crucial for the strength of the spring rally, which can be influenced by macro fundamentals, corporate earnings trends, and liquidity environment [1][6] - Currently, positive factors are concentrated in technology sectors, with opportunities emerging in oversold growth industries such as military, media (gaming), AI applications, Hong Kong internet, and power equipment [1][3][7] Group 2 - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes "optimizing" as a priority, focusing on economic potential and structural reforms, with a stable fiscal policy and flexible monetary policy [2][6] - The conditions favoring technology remain unchanged, with growth-type spring rallies historically accounting for nearly 60% of spring market trends, while cyclical rallies account for about 40% [2][6] - Short-term indicators for technology dominance include TMT transaction volume exceeding 40%, while long-term conditions depend on changes in relative profitability [2][6] Group 3 - The market correction is believed to be concluding, and there are recommendations for early positioning in the spring rally, focusing on dual drivers of technology and cyclical opportunities [3][7] - Specific sectors for investment include military, media (gaming), AI applications, Hong Kong internet, batteries, and core AI hardware, alongside benefits from PPI improvements in solar, chemicals, steel, non-ferrous metals, electricity, and machinery [3][7] - Long-term investment strategies should include stable dividends, gold, and optimized high-yield stocks [3][7]

来源：浙商证券股份有限公司 核心观点 本周市场明显分化、呈现"沪弱深强"格局，多数宽基指数冲高回落。展望后市，由于以上证为代表的权 重指数勉强站上5 周均线，但还未收复前期上升趋势线；而在算力链"强势吸金"的背后，市场出现明显 分化格局。我们预计，在"权重不够强、行业大分化"的局面下，市场或继续维持区间震荡格局。配置方 面，基于"市场分化震荡继续，多看少动守株待兔"的判断：择时方面，建议持仓等待，切勿追涨杀跌、 垫高自身成本，同时根据不同宽基指数的"左脚"分类设定目标，伺机出击、分批介入。行业配置，建议 关注明显滞涨且份额扩张的券商板块、走势顺畅且历史上在12 月胜率较高的家电，以及近期利好频出 的机械设备。个股方面，留意医药、消费、AI 应用板块中相对低位的标的，同时关注年线上方低位滞 涨个股。 本周（2025-12-08 至2025-12-12）行情概况（1）主要指数：市场呈现"沪弱深强"格局，多数宽基指数冲 高回落。（2）板块观察：算力携硬科技领涨，大周期和消费走弱。（3）市场情绪：沪深成交环比上 升，IC 股指期货合约升水。（4）资金流向：两融余额小幅上升，有色金属ETF 净流入最多。（5）量 化"黑 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2025 年 12 月 11 日 策略点评 证券分析师 程强 摘要。2025 年 12 月 11 日周四，A 股市场全线回调，近 4400 只个股下跌；国债 期货市场持续反弹；商品指数下跌，双焦延续大跌。 一、市场行情分析 1）股票市场：全线回调，大幅降温 全线回调，大幅降温。今日 A 股主要指数全线回调，上证指数低开低走，收盘跌 0.70%至 3873.32 点，失守 3900 点整数关口；深证成指跌 1.27%至 13147.39 点， 创业板指跌 1.41%至 3163.67 点；微盘指数下跌 2.88%；北证 50 指数上涨 3.84%， 盘中一度上涨近 7%。万得全 A 指数跌 1.10%。市场成交额 1.89 万亿，较前一交 易日放量 5.2%，但资金获利了结情绪明显，全市场仅 1030 只个股上涨，4377 只 下跌，下跌个股占比超 80%。在近一个月的 23 个交易日中，有 12 个交易日市场 下跌家数超过 3000 家、5 个交易日下跌家数超过 4000 家，显示市场赚钱效应依 然偏弱。 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：ch ...

截至午盘，上证指数跌0.46%，深证成指跌0.18%，创业板指涨0.3%，北证50跌0.09%。全市场成交 额1.16万亿元，较上日成交额放量195亿元。 板块题材上，风电设备、商业航天板块活跃，次新股、超 导、核聚变、特高压、风电、CRO概念股走强；两岸融合、首发经济、免税店、AI应用、房地产板块 调整。 ETF方面，卫星互联网板块再度领涨，卫星ETF易方达、富国基金卫星ETF和卫星ETF广发涨 1.2%。风电板块表现活跃，申万菱信基金新能源龙头ETF和华夏基金新能源ETF基金分别涨0.89%和 0.88%。 房地产板块回调，房地产ETF基金、房地产ETF分别跌2.7%和2.6%。AI应用板块回调，科创AIETF 和科创人工智能ETF华宝均跌1.5%。 （责任编辑：张晓波 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

来源：股市直击 12月10日消息，指数午后回升，三大股指跌幅收窄。板块方面，午后地产股回暖，万科A午后直线拉升 封涨停；海南本地股冲高，神农种业20cm涨停，欣龙控股、罗牛山等多股涨停；大消费板块活跃，永 辉超市、中央商场、美凯龙涨停；下跌方面，AI应用板块大面积飘绿，胜宏科技跌幅居前；消费电子 板块持续调整，福蓉科技领跌。总体来看，两市个股跌多涨少，下跌个股超3400只。 截至发稿，沪指报3889.77点，跌0.51%，深成指报13243.13点，跌0.26%，创指报3183.14点，跌0.82%。 盘面上，海南自贸区、海南、贵金属板块涨幅居前；培育钻石、AI PC、其他电源设备板块跌幅居前。 ...

炒股的朋友可以免费领取福利，具体看这里。 要闻精选与涉及板块 1. 中央政治局会议：明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，更好统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗 争，更好统筹发展和安全；继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，发挥存量政策和增量 政策集成效应。 【涉及板块】整个市场流动性无忧，这是市场走牛的必备前提之一 2. 央视新闻：进入冬季，多地中小学生相继迎来"雪假"出游热度高涨。11月29日至12月7日"雪假"期 间，从乌鲁木齐和阿勒泰出发的机票预订量显著增长。从乌鲁木齐出发的机票预订量环比11月15日至23 日增长45%，而从阿勒泰出发的机票预订量环比增长48%，尤其飞往南方温暖城市的航线更受欢迎。 【涉及板块】AI应用概念 5. 税务总局：前11个月，办理离境退税的境外旅客数量同比增长285%，退税商品销售额和退税额同比 增长98.8%。截至11月底，全国离境退税商店已达12252家，提供"即买即退"服务的商店超7000家。 【涉及板块】免税概念 6. 证券时报：临近年末，跨年行情预期升温。但公募在跨年布局上则各有各的"心思"，浮盈明显的基金 想保存收益平稳收尾，前期回报不明显的基金则想最后再冲 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market opened lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.19% and the ChiNext Index down 0.21%. Consumer electronics, Nvidia concepts, and nuclear pollution sectors saw gains, while innovative drugs, precious metals, and robotics sectors experienced declines [1] - According to GF Securities, large-cap stocks are expected to outperform small-cap stocks in December, with a phase of dividend style dominance. The financial sector showed significant average gains, driven by asset rebalancing among institutions as the year-end assessment period approaches [1] - Open Source Securities suggests that the market correction has paused, and it is advisable to position for the upcoming spring rally, focusing on the dual drivers of technology and cyclical sectors. Opportunities in underperforming growth industries such as military, media (gaming), AI applications, and power equipment have emerged [2] Group 2 - Dongfang Securities indicates a clear trend of capital inflow into the A-share market, with a focus on the TMT sector and upstream resource products. The upcoming annual report season is expected to attract funds, particularly in the computing power sector, which has relatively certain performance [3] - The mid-term trend is expected to remain in a consolidation phase, with the Shanghai Composite Index likely to trade within the range of 3850-3950 points this month. Key areas of focus include TMT, upstream resources, AI supply chains, and military aerospace sectors [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of aligning A-share market investments with the "14th Five-Year Plan" policy guidance, focusing on opportunities arising from global monetary easing and industrial upgrades [1] - Three main investment themes are identified: 1) Technology innovation led by artificial intelligence; 2) Digital transformation of traditional industries through "AI+"; 3) Value recovery through investment in human capital to boost consumption [1] - The dual drivers of technology and cyclical industries are expected to continue, with relative profitability and economic advantages in technology likely to persist amid a global tech cycle [1] Group 2 - External demand for Chinese exports may face pressure due to tariff disturbances, low global economic growth, and stricter regulations on transshipment trade, but structural advantages in Chinese manufacturing are expected to support stable growth in exports [2] - Four incremental opportunities for external demand in 2026 are identified: 1) Structural support from the "re-industrialization" demand in emerging markets; 2) Gradual realization of competitive advantages in Chinese manufacturing; 3) Domestic industrial and value chain upgrades driven by overseas expansion; 4) Growth potential in service trade under focused policies [2]

Group 1 - CITIC Securities reports that a turning point in inventory has been observed since mid-November, with expectations for LME copper prices to accelerate towards $12,000 per ton by the end of the year due to interest rate cuts and domestic production reductions [1] - Looking ahead to next year, the dual narrative of "U.S. copper hoarding" and "domestic production cuts" is expected to resonate, potentially widening the supply gap by 60%, with $12,000 becoming a new starting point for copper prices [1] - A comprehensive recommendation for allocation in the copper sector has been made [1] Group 2 - Cinda Securities indicates that the foundation for a bull market remains solid, with the current market's low trading volume not being a negative signal, as historical patterns show that low volume often coincides with good buying opportunities during bull markets [2] - The report suggests that the end of the year may serve as a window for positioning ahead of a cross-year market rally, as adjustments typically occur before such rallies [2] - Huaxi Securities anticipates an influx of new capital into the A-share market at the year's end, driven by factors such as potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and favorable currency conditions for foreign investment in Chinese assets [3] - The report highlights sectors to focus on, including high-growth areas supported by industrial policy, such as innovative pharmaceuticals and AI applications, as well as non-ferrous metals benefiting from improved overseas liquidity [3]