Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a selective rally, with significant gains in specific sectors, particularly the Hainan sector, while other sectors like pharmaceuticals and film are facing declines [3] Group 1: Market Performance - The ChiNext Index rose over 2%, indicating a strong market sentiment driven by a substantial trading volume exceeding 1 trillion yuan [1] - The market is characterized by a concentration of capital in sectors with clear planning and backing, reflecting a desire for certainty among investors [3] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The storage chip and precious metals sectors remain active, representing domestic substitution and cyclical recovery, as well as serving as indicators of global macroeconomic fluctuations [3] - There is a notable divergence in market performance, with strong themes attracting capital while sectors lacking short-term catalysts are quickly losing funding [3] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The strategy for the upcoming trading day suggests maintaining a discerning approach amidst optimism, focusing on sectors that showed volume and positive trends but with moderate gains [4] - Investors are advised to be patient with holdings in strong sectors while considering adjustments for those in weak sectors lacking current momentum [4]

12月22日，国内多个贵金属期货品种价格再度集体暴涨，引起市场广泛关注。 多个贵金属期货品种大涨钯和铂期货再度涨停 12月22日，国内多个贵金属期货品种价格集体暴涨，部分品种的涨势有加速之势。 长江期货近日的研究观点还认为，美国经济数据趋势性走弱，市场对美国财政情况和美联储独立性存在担忧，央行购金和去美元化并未改变，工业需求拉 动下，白银现货维持紧张，黄金白银中期价格运行中枢上移。欧盟调整放宽原本将从2035年起有效禁止内燃机汽车的规则，预计铂钯价格将延续偏强震 荡。 另一贵金属——铂的期货价格也大涨。12月22日，广期所铂期货主力合约也以涨停价收盘，收盘涨幅达6.99%，报568.45元/克，创出广期所铂期货品种上 市以来新高。今年12月以来，广期所铂期货主力合约累计涨幅已高达30.86%。 贵金属价格暴涨之下多家上市企业回应 值得注意的是，在多种贵金属价格暴涨的大背景下，一些上市企业也回应了相关影响。 行情数据显示，当天广期所钯期货主力合约以涨停收盘，报508.45元/克，创出广期所钯期货品种上市以来新高，收盘涨幅达7%。今年12月以来，广期所 钯期货主力合约累计涨幅已高达36.22%。 在钯和铂的期货价 ...

在钯和铂的期货价格大涨之余，同样作为贵金属的金、银期货价格也进一步上行。12月22 日，上期所白银期货主力合约涨势加速，当天收盘大涨6.06%，报16210元/千克，盘中一度 触及16282元/千克，刷新历史新高；当天上期所黄金期货主力合约重新突破1000元/克，逼 近前期历史高点，收盘涨幅达2.10%。 对于贵金属价格走势，长江期货近日的研究观点认为，美国11月失业率超预期上升，降息预 期升温，贵金属价格延续偏强。具体来看，美联储12月议息会议如期降息25基点，并启动准 备金管理型扩表。特朗普对美联储独立性影响显现，美国就业形势放缓。美联储主席鲍威尔 表示，不断变化的经济风险让美联储有了更充分的降息理由，降息进程还将延续。 12 月 22 日，国内多个贵金属期货品种价格再度集体暴涨，引起市场广泛关注。 多个贵金属期货品种大涨 钯和铂期货再度涨停 12月22日，国内多个贵金属期货品种价格集体暴涨，部分品种的涨势有加速之势。 行情数据显示，当天广期所钯期货主力合约以涨停收盘，报508.45元/克，创出广期所钯期货 品种上市以来新高，收盘涨幅达7%。今年12月以来，广期所钯期货主力合约累计涨幅已高达 36.22% ...

Core Viewpoint - Nomura's 2026 Global Economic Outlook report expresses optimism for the global economy, driven by AI-led investment and supportive monetary and fiscal policies [1] Group 1: Economic Growth Projections - The U.S. is projected to have a real GDP growth rate of 2.4% in 2026, supported by easing labor supply pressures and accelerated AI-driven business investments [1] - AI infrastructure investments are expected to contribute approximately 1% to 1.5% growth to the U.S. economy annually [1] - The unemployment rate in the U.S. is anticipated to decline to 4.0% in 2026, lower than the Federal Reserve's or market's expectations [1] Group 2: Inflation and Monetary Policy - U.S. inflation is expected to remain sticky, averaging closer to 3% throughout 2026, with a significant decline only anticipated in the fourth quarter [1] - The current interest rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve is considered over, with two additional rate cuts expected in 2026, bringing the federal funds rate down to 3.125% by September [2] Group 3: Regional Economic Outlook - Europe is projected to maintain a GDP growth rate of 1.25% in 2026, with the European Central Bank expected to keep its policy unchanged [2] - Asia's GDP growth is forecasted to average 3.6% in 2026, supported by strong tech product exports and rising storage chip prices [2] - Economic growth in Asia will show divergence, with countries like South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, and India likely to exceed market expectations, while Thailand and the Philippines may underperform [2] Group 4: AI and Commodity Markets - Concerns about an "AI bubble" are acknowledged, with the focus on whether investments in AI will yield reasonable returns [3] - The AI investment trend is expected to continue into 2026, with significant initial investments and the importance of first-mover advantages [3] - Various commodities, including precious metals and agricultural products, are anticipated to perform strongly in 2026, driven by increasing demand [3]

Core Insights - The overall market is experiencing a period of sustained volatility as it approaches the holiday season, with the equity market showing insufficient upward momentum and trading volume significantly below 20 trillion [2][9] - Investor sentiment is cautious, influenced by a policy vacuum at year-end and increased risk aversion due to the holiday season, leading to a lack of upward movement in the market [3][10] - Despite the short-term volatility, the market remains supported at relatively high levels, indicating resilience and a potential for upward movement in the medium to long term, especially with favorable policies and strong corporate earnings expected [3][12] Equity Market Summary - The A-share market continues to maintain high-level fluctuations, with trading volumes remaining weak and investor caution increasing [3][10] - The year-end policy vacuum and external market conditions, such as the transition in the U.S. Federal Reserve leadership and the easing of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, contribute to a subdued market environment [3][10] - In the medium to long term, the market has significant upward potential, particularly with the "14th Five-Year Plan" beginning and a supportive monetary environment [3][12] - A "barbell strategy" is recommended for equity allocation, focusing on both offensive positions in sectors like communication, semiconductors, and innovative pharmaceuticals, and defensive positions in consumer sectors to enhance returns [3][13] Bond Market Summary - The bond market continues to exhibit a volatile trend, closely following the equity market, indicating a lack of independent movement [4][35] - Without significant positive developments, the bond market is expected to remain weak in upward momentum, making it difficult to achieve independent performance [5][35] Commodity Market Summary - The commodity market is also experiencing volatility, with precious metals, particularly gold, showing a strong upward trend while other commodities remain subdued [6][40] - Gold prices are expected to continue rising in the medium to long term, supported by both investment and safe-haven demand, potentially leading precious metals to develop an independent trend [6][40] - It is advised to maintain positions in gold as part of the commodity investment strategy [6][41]

有色金属板块强者恒强！今日（12月22日）同标的指数规模最大*的有色ETF华宝（159876）跳空大 涨，场内价格一度涨超2.9%，上探ETF上市以来的高点（0.958元），最终收涨2.37%，全天成交额6651 万元，环比放量28%。拉长时间来看，该ETF自本轮低点（4月8日）以来，累计上涨89.68%，大幅跑赢 沪指（26.51%）、沪深300（28.48%）等主要指数。 细分方向来看，铜业龙头白银有色涨停，小金属龙头云南锗业、白银龙头湖南白银纷纷涨逾7%，稀土 龙头广晟有色、黄金龙头西部黄金等个股跟涨。权重股方面，紫金矿业、山东黄金涨超4%。 业内人士指出，本轮有色金属行情驱动因素复杂，各细分板块逻辑存在明显差异。其中，工业金属（如 铜、铝）的核心驱动力更偏重经济周期的景气度变化；而贵金属（如黄金）作为"货币的锚"，其行情主 要受全球货币因素、风险事件变化等推动；小金属则更多与相关产业创新、细分产业政策等因素挂钩。 具体来看： 展望后市，中金公司认为，有色金属将成为2026年上涨趋势的"第一梯队"。高盛、摩根大通和美国银行 均认为，黄金价格有望在2026年挑战5000美元/盎司的历史新高，央行购金成为支 ...

12月22日，2025年全球金属市场在剧烈波动中展现了代际级别的投资回报，GTC泽汇资本表示，白银以 超过127%的涨幅傲视群雄，铂金紧随其后增长120%，而黄金则在多年牛市的基础上稳步上升65%，铜 也录得了35%的显著收益。GTC泽汇资本认为，这一系列数据反映了宏观经济环境对避险及工业金属的 强力支撑。根据最新的金属市场调研，散户投资者目前对白银的追捧热度依然高涨，而行业专家则开始 预警铂金在2026年可能展现出更强的爆发力。在针对352名投资者的调查中，51%的受访者预计白银将 蝉联涨幅冠军，29%的人看好黄金，另有11%和10%的人分别看好铜与铂金的表现。 12月22日，2025年全球金属市场在剧烈波动中展现了代际级别的投资回报，GTC泽汇资本表示，白银以 超过127%的涨幅傲视群雄，铂金紧随其后增长120%，而黄金则在多年牛市的基础上稳步上升65%，铜 也录得了35%的显著收益。GTC泽汇资本认为，这一系列数据反映了宏观经济环境对避险及工业金属的 强力支撑。根据最新的金属市场调研，散户投资者目前对白银的追捧热度依然高涨，而行业专家则开始 预警铂金在2026年可能展现出更强的爆发力。在针对352名投资 ...

12月22日，回顾2025年，白银无疑是商品市场的明星。在强劲的工业需求、激进的投资买盘以及关税政 策导致的供应体系脱节共同作用下，银价录得了超过120%的惊人涨幅。Mhmarkets迈汇表示，这一轮暴 涨不仅反映了白银作为关键矿产的战略地位，也体现了市场在复杂地缘政策下的避险偏好。进入2026 年，尽管市场普遍预期白银能延续牛市姿态，但Mhmarkets迈汇认为，投资者需警惕年初可能出现的获 利回吐及阶段性整合压力。 分析师普遍预计，2026年上半年贵金属价格可能经历一段修正期。由于前期涨幅过大，市场动能一旦耗 尽，价格将进入盘整。Mhmarkets迈汇认为，高昂的价格已经开始对部分消费端产生抑制作用。例如， 在光伏领域，虽然全球装机量持续扩张，但高价促使生产商加速研发减量化技术或寻找廉价替代金属， 这可能导致该领域的白银消耗增速放缓。同时，印度等核心市场的珠宝与银器消费也因成本压力出现了 14%左右的下滑。 然而，供应侧的紧缩依然是支撑银价的核心逻辑。Mhmarkets迈汇表示，过去十年由于矿价低迷导致勘 探投入不足，目前全球白银供应缺口难以在短期内填补。新建一座大型矿山通常需要5至10年的周期， 这种结 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Commodities Weekly Report - Report Date: December 22, 2025 - Author: Hu Jingyi from Guotou Futures - Investment Consulting Number: Z0019749 - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03090299 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The overall commodity market rose slightly by 0.09% last week, with the black sector leading the gain at 3.04%, while the agricultural product sector fell by 2.12%. The liquidity environment is generally favorable, and the commodity market may run stably in the short - term [2][6]. - The dovish interest rate hike in Japan supported the US dollar index, but after the release of US economic and inflation data last week, market expectations for interest rate cuts increased, and short - term US dollar liquidity may remain stable. In China, the growth rate of fixed - asset investment and social retail sales slowed down in November, and economic growth continued to slow down moderately [2]. - Different commodity sectors have different short - term trends. The precious metals sector may be volatile and bullish; the non - ferrous metals sector may run stably; the black sector may fluctuate; the energy sector may fluctuate; the chemical sector's rebound space may be limited; and the agricultural products (oilseeds) sector may fluctuate [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Overall Market Performance**: The overall commodity market rose slightly by 0.09% last week. The black, precious metals, energy - chemical, and non - ferrous sectors rose by 3.04%, 1.9%, 0.91%, and 0.79% respectively, while the agricultural product sector fell by 2.12% [2][6]. - **Top - Gaining and Top - Losing Varieties**: The top - gaining varieties were coking coal (9%), coke (8.31%), and PTA (4.45%); the top - losing varieties were rapeseed oil (- 6.45%), soybean oil (- 3.53%), and apples (- 3.36%) [2][6]. - **Volatility**: The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market continued to rise, with only the agricultural product and precious metals sectors showing mainly declining volatility [2][6]. - **Fund Flow**: The overall market scale decreased slightly last week, and the non - ferrous, energy - chemical, and black sectors all had net capital outflows [2][6]. 3.2 Outlook for Different Sectors - **Precious Metals**: US economic data last week showed an economic cooling trend, and the November CPI data decline exceeded expectations. The core CPI reached a new low since March 2021. Fed Chair candidates Hasset and Waller believe there is still room for interest rate cuts. The sector may be volatile and bullish in the short - term [2]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: Overseas economic data is weak, interest rate cut expectations are rising, and the US dollar index is under pressure, with the macro environment generally positive. The inventory continued to decline last week, but the decline rate narrowed, and the spot premium was mainly weakening. However, there is still a risk of smelting contraction. The sector may run stably in the short - term [3]. - **Black Sector**: The apparent demand for rebar improved last week, production increased slightly, and inventory continued to decline. Steel mills' profitability is poor, and due to environmental protection factors, the decline in hot metal production is still large, but steel mill profits are showing marginal improvement, and the production - cut trend may slow down. For raw materials, the global shipment of iron ore increased month - on - month and was stronger than the same period last year, and the domestic arrival volume rebounded; the total coking coal inventory increased slightly. After the oversold rebound, the market sentiment has become cautious, and the sector may fluctuate in the short - term [3]. - **Energy Sector**: The Berlin negotiation between the US and Ukraine last week was very positive, leading to market concerns that an agreement may increase the supply pressure of Russian oil. EIA data showed that although crude oil inventory decreased, gasoline and distillate oil inventories increased unexpectedly. The supply - loose pattern always puts pressure on oil prices. However, the escalation of the US - Venezuela situation and the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical issue may bring phased risk premiums. Oil prices may fluctuate in the short - term [3]. - **Chemical Sector**: For polyester varieties, the expectation of tight supply led to a significant increase in PX positions and price. Stimulated by raw material price increases, downstream buyers replenished inventory at low prices, and polyester filament inventory decreased. The short - term polyester start - up rate will be maintained, but it is expected to decline later due to mid - line inventory accumulation and the Spring Festival factor. The short - term cost support is strong, but the rebound space may be limited under the background of a downward demand period [4]. - **Agricultural Products Sector**: Recently, the weather in South America has continued to improve, and the probability of La Nina turning into ENSO neutral in the first quarter of next year is 68%. The trading logic has returned to concerns about US soybean exports and expectations of a bumper harvest in South America. The US soybean futures price has fallen back to the previous bottom range, and soybean meal may follow the adjustment in the short - term. The global rapeseed supply - demand pattern is loose, and the weak rapeseed oil has also led to the weakening of soybean and palm oil. The Malaysian palm oil market still faces high inventory pressure. Although the production decreased month - on - month in November, the decline was small, and the demand was even worse. The oilseeds sector may fluctuate in the short - term [4]. 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - Gold ETFs generally had positive returns, with the total return of gold ETFs at 0.07%. The returns of individual gold ETFs such as Qianhai Kaiyuan Gold ETF and Tianhong Shanghai Gold ETF were 1.16% and 0.98% respectively [38]. - The energy - chemical ETF (Jianxin Yisheng Zhengshang Energy Chemical Futures ETF) had a return of 2.71% [38]. - The soybean meal ETF (Huaxia Feed Soybean Meal Futures ETF) had a return of - 1.32% [38]. - The non - ferrous ETF (Dacheng Non - Ferrous Metals Futures ETF) had a return of - 0.66% [38]. - The silver fund (Guotou Ruixin Silver Futures (LOF)) had a return of 3.47% [38]. - The total return of commodity ETFs was 0.24% [38].

2025年，全球金属市场在剧烈波动中为投资者带来了代际级别的回报收益。GTC泽汇表示，白银以超过 127%的年度涨幅成为市场焦点，铂金紧随其后录得120%的增长，而黄金在多年牛市的基础上继续发 力，实现了65%的强劲涨幅，铜也贡献了35%的可观回报。GTC泽汇认为，尽管去年的行情极为辉煌， 但2026年的市场格局正发生微妙变化。根据最新的行业调查数据显示，超过半数的散户投资者依然坚定 看好白银的领涨地位，而行业专家则开始倾向于认为，铂金等被低估的品种在未来一年更具爆发潜质。 华尔街对2026年金银市场的整体情绪依然积极，但铂族金属（PGM）的补涨潜力不容小觑。道明证券 的分析指出，随着利率环境改善及货币贬值压力的持续，金价有望在2026年上半年触及4400美元的历史 新高。GTC泽汇认为，美联储驱动的持有成本下降，叠加市场对通胀目标和债务规模的隐忧，将促使黄 金的牛市逻辑进一步自我强化。除非美国就业市场表现出超预期的韧性，否则黄金价格很难跌破3500美 元至4400美元这一新的长期运行区间。 在白银市场方面，GTC泽汇表示，市场供应逻辑正从去年的"实物挤压"向"库存回补"转变。预计2026年 伦敦现货市场的库 ...