Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - In May, the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in economic conditions [1][2] - The production index reached 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points, signaling accelerated manufacturing activity, while the new orders index increased to 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points [2] - Large enterprises saw their PMI rise to 50.7%, returning to the expansion zone, with production and new orders indices at 51.5% and 52.5%, respectively [2] Group 2: High-Tech and Export Performance - High-tech manufacturing PMI stood at 50.9%, maintaining expansion for four consecutive months, while equipment manufacturing and consumer goods sectors also showed improvement [3] - New export orders and import indices increased to 47.5% and 47.1%, respectively, reflecting a recovery in foreign trade orders, particularly from companies engaged with the U.S. market [3] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points but still indicating expansion [4] - The service sector's business activity index rose to 50.2%, driven by increased consumer activity during the "May Day" holiday, with significant growth in transportation and hospitality sectors [4] - The construction sector maintained expansion with a business activity index of 51.0%, although it showed a slight decline from the previous month [4] Group 4: Composite PMI Overview - The composite PMI output index increased to 50.4%, up 0.2 percentage points, indicating continued expansion in production and business activities across sectors [5][6] - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index contributed to the composite PMI, standing at 50.7% and 50.3%, respectively [6]

国家统计局服务业调查中心 中国物流与采购联合会 一、中国制造业采购经理指数运行情况 5月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.5%，比上月上升0.5个百分点，制造业景气水平改善。 供应商配送时间指数为50.0%，比上月下降0.2个百分点，位于临界点，表明制造业原材料供应商交货时间与上月基本持平。 表1 中国制造业PMI及构成指数（经季节调整） 单位：% 从企业规模看，大型企业PMI为50.7%，比上月上升1.5个百分点，高于临界点；中型企业PMI为47.5%，比上月下降1.3个百分点，低于临界点；小型企业PMI 为49.3%，比上月上升0.6个百分点，低于临界点。 从分类指数看，在构成制造业PMI的5个分类指数中，生产指数高于临界点，供应商配送时间指数位于临界点，新订单指数、原材料库存指数和从业人员指 数均低于临界点。 生产指数为50.7%，比上月上升0.9个百分点，升至临界点以上，表明制造业企业生产活动有所加快。 新订单指数为49.8%，比上月上升0.6个百分点，表明制造业市场需求景气度回升。 原材料库存指数为47.4%，比上月上升0.4个百分点，低于临界点，表明制造业主要原材料库存量降幅有所收窄。 从业 ...

央视网消息：中国国家统计局5月19日发布2025年4月份中国国民经济运行数据。数据显示4月份，面对外部冲击影响加大、内 部困难挑战叠加的复杂局面，国民经济顶住压力稳定增长，延续向新向好发展态势。 4月份，货物进出口总额38391亿元，同比增长5.6%。全国城镇调查失业率为5.1%，比上月下降0.1个百分点。此外，全国居民 消费价格（CPI）同比下降0.1%，环比上涨0.1%。 国家统计局新闻发言人、国民经济综合统计司司长 付凌晖：总的来看，4月份，外部冲击影响加大，但宏观政策协同发力， 主要指标平稳较快增长，国民经济延续向新向好态势。也要看到，外部不稳定不确定因素仍然较多，国民经济持续回升向好基础 还需进一步稳固。 总台央视记者 梁爽：国家统计局相关负责人表示，下阶段，将坚定不移扩大高水平对外开放，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市 场、稳预期，扎实推进高质量发展，推动经济持续回升向好。 4月份，中国规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.1%。装备制造业增加值同比增长9.8%，高技术制造业增加值增长10.0%，分别快 于全部规模以上工业增加值3.7和3.9个百分点。 国家统计局新闻发言人、国民经济综合统计司司长 付凌晖：4月份 ...

4月份，全国服务业生产指数同比增长6.0%。分行业看，信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业，租赁和商 务服务业，批发和零售业，金融业生产指数同比分别增长10.4%、8.9%、6.8%、6.1%，分别快于服务业 生产指数4.4、2.9、0.8、0.1个百分点。1-4月份，全国服务业生产指数同比增长5.9%。1-3月份，规模以 上服务业企业营业收入同比增长7.0%。4月份，服务业商务活动指数为50.1%，服务业业务活动预期指 数为56.4%。其中，航空运输、电信广播电视及卫星传输服务、互联网软件及信息技术服务、保险等行 业商务活动指数位于55.0%以上较高景气区间。(中国网) ...

Group 1: Service Trade Performance - In Q1 2025, China's service trade totalled 19,741.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.7% [3] - Service exports reached 8,351.5 billion yuan, growing by 12.2%, while imports were 11,390.3 billion yuan, increasing by 6.2% [3] - The service trade deficit was 3,038.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 244.6 billion yuan compared to the same period last year [3] - Knowledge-intensive service trade grew to 7,524.9 billion yuan, up 2.6%, with significant contributions from business services and telecommunications [3] - Travel services saw the highest growth, with total imports and exports reaching 5,849 billion yuan, a 21.8% increase, and exports surged by 97.5% [3] Group 2: Manufacturing PMI Analysis - In April 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [5] - The production index was at 49.8%, reflecting a slight slowdown in manufacturing production [6] - The new orders index fell to 49.2%, suggesting a decrease in market demand for manufactured goods [7] - The raw materials inventory index dropped to 47.0%, indicating a reduction in the inventory levels of key raw materials [8] - The employment index was at 47.9%, showing a decline in employment levels within the manufacturing sector [9] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing PMI Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.4% in April 2025, down 0.4 percentage points but still indicating expansion [10] - The construction sector's business activity index was 51.9%, while the services sector's index was 50.1%, both showing a decline from the previous month [10] - The new orders index for non-manufacturing fell to 44.9%, indicating a drop in market demand [10] - The input prices index was at 47.8%, suggesting a decrease in the overall price level of inputs used in non-manufacturing activities [11] - The business activity expectations index remained optimistic at 56.0%, despite a slight decline [11] Group 4: Comprehensive PMI Overview - The comprehensive PMI output index was 50.2% in April 2025, down 1.2 percentage points but still above the critical point, indicating continued expansion in production activities [13]

Manufacturing PMI Insights - In April 2025, China's manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.0%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from March, marking the largest decline in nearly two years[2][3] - The decline is attributed to two main factors: a significant change in the external environment due to increased tariffs from the U.S. and seasonal factors, as April typically sees a decrease in manufacturing activity compared to March[3] - New export orders index fell sharply by 4.3 percentage points to 44.7%, the lowest level in 28 months, primarily due to high tariffs impacting orders from the U.S.[4] Economic Indicators - The production index for April was 49.8%, down 2.8 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting weakened market demand[4] - The main raw materials purchasing price index decreased by 2.8 percentage points to 47.0%, while the factory price index fell by 3.1 percentage points to 44.3%, indicating significant contraction in both indices[4] - High-tech manufacturing PMI remained in the expansion zone at 51.5%, despite a 0.8 percentage point decline, showcasing resilience amid market challenges[5][6] Future Outlook - The construction PMI for April was 51.9%, down 1.5 percentage points, influenced by a slowdown in real estate investment; however, civil engineering activity index rose to 60.9%, indicating potential for increased infrastructure investment[6] - The central government's recent policy directives emphasize stronger counter-cyclical measures and proactive macroeconomic policies, suggesting a focus on boosting domestic demand and infrastructure investment[7] - It is anticipated that the manufacturing PMI may remain in contraction territory in May but could rebound to around 49.5% due to the implementation of growth-stimulating policies[7]

Core Viewpoint - The April PMI data indicates a decline in manufacturing while the service sector remains in expansion, suggesting potential policy adjustments in response to economic conditions [1][4]. Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for April is reported at 49.0%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the critical threshold [1][2]. - Production and new orders indices are at 49.8% and 49.2%, respectively, both showing declines of 2.8 and 2.6 percentage points, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing production and market demand [2]. - High-tech manufacturing PMI remains in the expansion zone at 51.5%, despite a 0.8 percentage point drop, demonstrating resilience and strong support from market demand and policy [3]. - The decline in manufacturing PMI is attributed to external economic changes, particularly the impact of increased tariffs from the U.S., and seasonal factors, as April typically sees a decrease following the peak in March [2][3]. Service Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50.4%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, but still indicates expansion [4]. - The service sector PMI is at 50.1%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points, with seasonal factors contributing to this change [5]. - The construction PMI is reported at 51.9%, down 1.5 percentage points, primarily due to a decline in real estate investment, although civil engineering activity shows a significant increase, indicating potential for future growth [5]. Economic Outlook - The expectation is that domestic demand will counterbalance the slowdown in external demand, becoming a key support for manufacturing sector performance [6]. - There is a prediction that the manufacturing PMI may remain in the contraction zone in May but could rebound to around 49.5% due to increased policy support [7]. - The likelihood of policy rate cuts is increasing as the manufacturing PMI remains in contraction for two consecutive months, with expectations for timely adjustments in monetary policy [1][7].

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI in April 2025 has declined compared to the previous month and the past five-year average, indicating a weakening manufacturing sector under external pressures, particularly from trade tensions with the US [1][3][4] Manufacturing PMI Analysis - The manufacturing PMI for April 2025 is reported at 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month and 1.3 percentage points lower than the five-year average, reflecting a decrease in manufacturing activity due to external trade pressures [2][3] - The production index within the manufacturing PMI is at 49.8%, which is 2.4 percentage points lower than the five-year average, indicating a decline in production levels [4] - The new export orders index is at 44.7%, significantly lower than the five-year average by 4.8 percentage points, primarily due to reduced exports to the US [4][5] Sector Performance - Among 15 major manufacturing sectors, only 5 have PMIs above the threshold, with 4 sectors showing a month-on-month increase, including non-ferrous metal smelting and processing, which rose by 9.1 percentage points [5] - The gap between PMIs of large, medium, and small enterprises is narrowing, with large enterprises experiencing a more significant decline [5] Non-Manufacturing PMI Insights - The non-manufacturing PMI for April 2025 is at 50.4%, which is 3.6 percentage points lower than the five-year average, indicating weaker domestic demand [6] - The service sector PMI is at 50.1%, and the construction sector PMI is at 51.9%, both reflecting a decline compared to historical averages [6] Policy Response - The Central Political Bureau meeting in April outlined measures to stabilize the economy, including accelerating existing policy implementation, introducing new policies, and preparing contingency plans [7] - Specific actions include expediting the issuance of local government bonds and establishing new financial tools to support infrastructure and industrial investments [7] Market Outlook - Economic fundamentals are expected to support the bond market, with anticipated monetary easing leading to a potential decline in interest rates for medium and long-term bonds [8]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - The manufacturing PMI for April 2025 is 49.0%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in the sector[5] - The decline in manufacturing PMI is primarily attributed to external shocks from trade friction, although domestic demand remains relatively stable[5] - New export orders index fell to 44.7%, down 4.3 percentage points, reflecting increased pressure on export-oriented industries due to trade uncertainties[15] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - The services business activity index is at 50.1%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points, indicating stability in the sector[22] - The construction business activity index is 51.9%, down 1.5 percentage points, with civil engineering showing improvement at 60.9%[26] - Seasonal factors, such as the upcoming "May Day" holiday, may lead to a rebound in the travel sector's activity[22] Group 3: Policy and Economic Outlook - The central government is accelerating the implementation of existing policies to boost domestic demand in response to external uncertainties[30] - Over 160 billion yuan has been allocated for consumption incentives, with an additional 140 billion yuan planned for future investments[30] - The focus on enhancing domestic consumption and effective investment is expected to support economic recovery in the second quarter[30]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Insights - April official manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in the sector[3] - New export orders fell by 4.3 percentage points to 44.7%, reflecting significant external demand weakness[4] - Industrial raw material purchase prices dropped to 47.0%, a decline of 2.8 percentage points, suggesting ongoing price pressures[21] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - April construction PMI decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 51.9%, with new orders showing mixed trends[22] - Special bond issuance progress reached approximately 27.1% by April 30, outperforming the 18.0% of the same period in 2024, indicating strong infrastructure momentum[22] - Service sector PMI remained relatively stable at 50.1%, with new orders declining by 1.2 percentage points to 45.9%[32] Group 3: Tariff Disturbance Phases - The first phase (May-June) is characterized by a slight recovery in exports, projected at +0.9% year-on-year, despite increasing downward pressure[6] - The second phase (July-August) may see reduced production schedules and workforce optimization among export firms if tariff conditions do not improve[6] - The current period is critical for policy decisions, with expectations for more flexible responses to economic pressures from both China and the U.S.[6] Group 4: Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include unexpected policy changes and a sharper-than-expected recession in the U.S. economy[7]