Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the impact of currency fluctuations, particularly the appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar, on the financial market and liquidity conditions in China. The overall trend indicates a loosening of monetary conditions driven by external factors rather than seasonal variations [1][2][5]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Monetary Policy and Liquidity** - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has been guiding liquidity conditions, leading to a significant drop in overnight and 7-day repurchase rates, which are at record lows. This indicates a trend of decreasing funding costs [1][3][4]. 2. **Impact of Currency Appreciation** - The passive appreciation of the RMB is primarily influenced by the depreciation of the US dollar and external economic policies, which have resulted in a more favorable liquidity environment in China [1][5][9]. 3. **Expectations for Future Interest Rates** - There is an expectation that short-term interest rates (DR001 and R007) will continue to decline, potentially reaching levels as low as 1.2. This trend is expected to benefit short-term financial instruments such as certificates of deposit and credit bonds [11][12]. 4. **Market Sentiment and Economic Outlook** - The current liquidity conditions are seen as a positive signal for the economy, with expectations of continued support for the bond market despite a lack of significant improvement in the underlying economic fundamentals [13][14]. 5. **External Factors and Market Dynamics** - The weakening of confidence in the US dollar due to recent US government policies has led to a shift in capital flows towards non-USD currencies, including the RMB. This shift is expected to further influence domestic liquidity and market conditions [8][17]. 6. **Potential for Future Rate Cuts** - If external economic conditions change, the PBOC may need to implement earlier and more substantial interest rate cuts to manage the appreciation of the RMB. Current market pricing does not fully reflect these potential rate cuts [3][16]. 7. **Investor Recommendations** - The period from July to September is anticipated to be favorable for interest rates, with expectations of significant returns across the yield curve. Investors are encouraged to seize opportunities in the upcoming issuance of long-term government bonds [18]. Other Important Insights - The PBOC's recent policy adjustments indicate a more proactive stance on managing exchange rates and liquidity, reflecting a shift in their approach to monetary policy [10]. - The market's optimistic outlook is supported by increased borrowing demand and the stability provided by major banks, despite temporary liquidity tightness observed at the end of the first half of the year [15].

我国与海外科创债的机构持仓结构及策略有何异同？ 20250703 摘要 美国科创债市场以基金和保险公司为核心，持仓占比分别达 57.6%和 40.65%，券商和银行参与度低，反映市场机构化和专业化特征，以及 高收益债券的本质。 美国金融机构偏好中等信用资质（3B 级和 3B+级）的科创债，占比超 过 30%，以获取票息收益并规避违约风险，同时与存量等级结构相符， 避免交易拥挤。 美国金融机构倾向于配置中长期科创债，剩余期限 11 年以上占比最高， 达 32.67%，与科创企业生命周期和投资者负债端波动相关。 美国金融机构青睐科技属性强的行业，如软件及服务、制药、航空航天 及防务业，合计占比超过 40%，这些领域发展前景良好，有助于降低信 用风险。 日本科创债市场规模较小，保险公司和基金是主要持有人，合计占比超 过 96%。投资高度集中于 3B+到 3B 评级，偏好中长期债券，制药业占 比超过 60%。 Q&A 美国市场的机构投资者持有科创债的情况如何？ 截至 6 月初，美国市场的机构投资者持有科创债规模超过 5,000 亿美元，占存 量科创债市场整体的 20%以上。美国科创债的主要机构持有人是基金和保险公 司 ...

三季度债券市场利率向下突破的动力是什么？ 利率向下突破的动力——三季度债市展望 20250703 摘要 当前资金面宽松，机构投资者对资金面的分歧可能减轻，并趋向一致乐 观，即使没有央行干预，资金也会保持宽松状态，从而驱动利率继续下 行。 尽管没有宏观基本面或央行政策的大幅宽松，低利率环境下投资者竞争 激烈，机构行为对市场影响力放大，三季度可能形成一致看多局面，推 动利率自然向下突破。 下半年固收资管产品购买意愿预计会提升，企业和居民更倾向于配置固 收资管产品，受缺乏高收益低风险资产、股市分流资金有限及理财产品 吸引力影响。 银行和保险机构预计将加大对债券市场的配置力度，反映出他们对于稳 定收益资产需求增加，同时也符合当前宏观经济环境下稳健投资策略的 发展方向。 2025 年上半年银行在基金投资方面表现出较为谨慎的态度，但从二季 度末开始，债券基金的表现明显边际好转，银行的流动性管理已经有所 缓解。 Q&A 我们认为三季度债券市场利率存在向下突破的动力，这一判断主要基于机构行 为的视角。首先，资金面的担忧虽然在 6 月份有所缓解，但市场普遍预期 7 月 份之后资金面会边际收紧。然而，我们认为这种预期可能会落空， ...

新华财经北京7月1日电今年年初时，美国股市基准指数一度创下历史新高。但当美国4月份宣布对几乎 所有全球贸易伙伴提高关税的计划时，标准普尔500指数进入了熊市，从最高点短暂下跌了20%。美债 收益率也不祥地上升，美元暴跌，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数（恐慌指标）飙升。 据美国财政部数据，10年期美债收益率1月14日创下4.79%的年中最高纪录，而在4月4日创下4.01%的年 中最低纪录。 而超长期美债，如30年期美债上半年的走势与10年期美债在4月前基本一致，而5月下旬则创下年中 5.08%的最高纪录，显示投资者在这个时间段对长期限债券的抛售。 "在这种环境下，债券投资者可以获得相对于通胀更高的收益率，因此，对于目前投资债券的人来说， 这是一个明确的积极因素，"美银固定收益策略首席投资官马修·迪佐克表示。 他补充说，"对于高税率阶层的客户来说，目前固定收益市场中最具吸引力的机会之一是市政债券市 场。这类债券的供应并没有像美国国债债和公司债券那样增长。估值看起来更好。" 而在拟议的关税暂停后，金融市场反弹，并迅速收复了5月中旬的全部损失。美林和美国银行私人银行 首席投资官克里斯·海兹表示："这是一次强劲而迅速的反弹 ...

债市的买方情绪率先降温 [Table_IndNameRptType]2 固定收益 固收周报 ——债市情绪面周报（6 月第 5 周） 报告日期： 2025-06-30 [Table_Author] 首席分析师：颜子琦 执业证书号：S0010522030002 电话：13127532070 邮箱：yanzq@hazq.com [Table_Author] 分析师：洪子彦 执业证书号：S0010525060002 电话：15851599909 邮箱：hongziyan@hazq.com 主要观点： ⚫[Table_Summary] 华安观点：建议切换至活跃券把握债市左侧行情 当前债市的交易主线并不明确，整体顺风但在投资者高久期、高杠杆的 情况下仍有利空因素扰动，基本面难空债市，央行对于资金面呵护意图较为 明显，从近期的机构行为特征看，大行买短已经持续近 1 月，非银机构追涨 情绪高昂，其他产品类净买入明显加大（去年 7-8 月表现类似），维持久期， 持有 10Y/30Y 活跃券更有利于利好兑现时获取资本利得，以及利空出现时的 及时止损。 ⚫ 卖方观点：情绪指数小幅回落，仍有超 6 成固收卖方看多债市 从市场情绪的角 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of the bond market as a breakthrough for the moderate diversification of Macau's economy, with clear policy directions supporting its rapid growth [1][7] - The launch of the Macau Technology Innovation Bond (referred to as "Macau Sci-Tech Bond") and the introduction of the first "Certification Standards" for these bonds signify a proactive approach to enhance cross-border financing for technology innovation [1][2] - The establishment of the Macau Sci-Tech Bond Certification Committee, comprising experts from various fields, aims to streamline the approval process and attract more tech entities to issue bonds in Macau [1][2] Group 2 - The "Certification Standards" set strict criteria for issuers, requiring them to be certified technology enterprises and to have been operating in Macau for at least one year, focusing on high-tech sectors [3][4] - The standards mandate that 100% of the raised funds must be used for technology research and development or results transformation, ensuring transparency and preventing fund misappropriation [4][5] - The standards also highlight the unique role of "Sci-Tech Incubation Support Enterprises," which are crucial for bridging the gap in technology transfer and supporting early-stage projects [5][6] Group 3 - The Macau bond market has seen significant growth, with a total issuance of 952.5 billion MOP (approximately 118.5 billion USD) as of June 25, 2025, with nearly 40% being RMB-denominated bonds [7][8] - The Macau government aims to develop a diversified offshore bond market, enhancing its infrastructure and regulatory environment to attract international investors [7][9] - The focus on creating a unique bond market in Macau, leveraging its geographical and institutional advantages, is part of a broader strategy to position Macau as a key financial hub [9][10]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on the Sci-Tech Bond Market Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **Sci-Tech Bond Market**, which includes various types of bonds such as **Innovation and Entrepreneurship Bonds**, **Sci-Tech Notes**, and **Technology Innovation Company Bonds**. The funds raised are aimed at supporting innovation incubation, the development of technology enterprises, and the construction of infrastructure for industrial parks [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Policy Development**: From 2022 to 2025, policies regarding Sci-Tech Bonds have been continuously refined, transitioning from supporting state-owned enterprises to promoting high-quality development, with new regulations introduced by the central bank and the securities regulatory commission to facilitate explosive growth in the market [1][8]. - **Market Size**: As of now, the issuance scale of Sci-Tech Bonds exceeds **30 trillion yuan**, with an outstanding balance of approximately **23 trillion yuan**. State-owned enterprises account for about **90%** of this market, with a significant concentration in traditional industries such as construction and urban investment [1][12]. - **Investment Characteristics**: The average coupon rate of Sci-Tech Bonds is lower than that of non-Sci-Tech Bonds, indicating a strong policy support direction. However, bonds with lower implicit ratings may yield higher returns compared to non-Sci-Tech Bonds [3][15]. - **Market Pain Points**: Key challenges include low participation from weakly rated enterprises and private companies, short issuance terms that do not align with the long R&D cycles of tech firms, and insufficient market liquidity and information disclosure [13][14]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Future Policy Directions**: The 2025 policy changes broaden the range of issuers and the use of raised funds, allowing financial institutions and equity investment firms to issue bonds, which is expected to enhance market recognition [9][10]. - **Liquidity Issues**: The current monthly turnover rate for Sci-Tech Bonds is between **6% and 9%**, which is lower than that of medium-term notes. However, recent policy changes have led to a slight increase in turnover rates [17]. - **ETF Impact**: The introduction of Sci-Tech Bond ETFs is anticipated to significantly improve market liquidity, particularly for the underlying bonds included in these ETFs, potentially leading to a decline in yields and compression of spreads [18]. Conclusion - The Sci-Tech Bond Market is evolving with strong policy support and significant growth potential. However, it faces challenges related to issuer quality, market liquidity, and alignment with the unique financial characteristics of technology enterprises. Future developments, particularly the introduction of ETFs and expanded issuer categories, may enhance market dynamics and investment opportunities.

近期，在经济内生动能仍待提升、央行呵护流动性背景下，债市整体以上行为主，但稳增长政策制约利率的下行空间，债市呈现震荡 偏强走势，短期波动受市场消息影响较大。上周10年期国债收益率逼近1.6%后，进一步下行动力明显不足，市场交易逻辑锚定超长端 债市，30年期国债期货表现亮眼，其他期限品种重回窄幅震荡走势。 首先，经济内生动能仍待提升形成支撑债市的底层逻辑，当前经济运行平稳但预期有所弱化，叠加流动性维持均衡宽松局面，在大行 持续买入短债背景下，市场对央行重启国债买卖的预期较强，债市做多力量增强。其次，此前重要会议强调政策底线思维，基本面底 部明确，约束了利率的下行空间。最后，地缘冲突升级使市场风险偏好下降，原油价格上涨对输入性通胀的传导仍有较长时滞。 从经济基本面看，当前内需仍然偏弱，形成了债市偏强的底层逻辑，中长期利率下行趋势或延续。5月经济数据显示，总量维持平稳 但预期有所弱化，分项看，呈现"生产稳、消费强、投资落、出口降"态势，投资和出口回落但仍有韧性，在国补政策、"618"大促等 影响下，消费明显好于预期，继续呈现"政策支撑强+内需偏弱"结构。5月制造业PMI小幅回升但仍处于收缩区间，PPI降幅扩大，企 ...

Primary Market Review - The issuance scale of government bonds, local bonds, and policy financial bonds last week was 430.8 billion, 261.8 billion, and 162 billion respectively, with net financing amounts of 135.1 billion, 124.3 billion, and 63.6 billion [1] - Financial bonds (excluding policy financial bonds) had a total issuance scale of 122.5 billion, with a net financing amount of -7.2 billion [1] - Non-financial credit bonds had a total issuance scale of 392.8 billion, with a net financing amount of 107.3 billion [1] - Two new convertible bonds were issued, with an expected financing scale of 0.9 billion [1] Secondary Market Review - Short-term interest rates in the bond market decreased while long-term rates fluctuated, influenced by factors such as liquidity, the Lujiazui conference, institutional behaviors, and geopolitical conflicts [2] Liquidity Tracking - Last week, there was a net injection through OMO, while MLF matured and was withdrawn, with the central bank conducting buyback operations to support the liquidity during the tax period [3] - The R001 and R007 rates decreased by 1.4 basis points and increased by 1 basis point respectively compared to the previous week [3] Policy and Fundamentals - Economic data for May showed stable production, rising consumption, and declining investment, with structural concerns remaining [4] - High-frequency data indicated a month-on-month decline in production, a decrease in both domestic and external consumption, and price differentiation in the production and residential sectors, with the Middle East conflict driving oil prices significantly higher [4] Overseas Market - The Federal Reserve's June FOMC statement was slightly hawkish, but U.S. consumption and production data were disappointing, exacerbating risk aversion in overseas markets [5] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.38%, down 3 basis points from the previous week [5] Equity Market - The A-share market experienced a decline in most broad-based indices due to capital outflows from new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals, as well as the impact of the Israel-Palestine conflict [6] - Specifically, the Wind All A index fell by 1.07%, the Wind Micro-Cap index dropped by 2.18%, the CSI 300 decreased by 0.45%, and the Sci-Tech 50 fell by 1.55% [6] - A-share trading volume decreased, with an average daily turnover of 1.22 trillion, down 156.644 billion week-on-week [6] - As of June 19, 2025, the total financing balance for the entire A-share market was 1,809.167 billion, an increase of 0.188 billion from June 12 [6] Bond Market Strategy Outlook - Factors favorable to the bond market are gradually increasing in the second half of the year, with bond yields likely to face upward pressure [7] - The 10-year government bond yield has already reflected macro expectations to some extent, and short-term long-end rates are unlikely to present significant excess opportunities in the near term [7] - Short-term rates are still some distance from previous lows, and banks are balancing duration pressures, which may accumulate buying power for short-term bonds [7] - The logic of under-allocation in credit bonds continues, with a strategy prioritizing coupon collection in the short term [7] - In the convertible bond market, supply-demand conflicts persist, and liquidity remains relatively loose, with some banks redeeming convertible bonds, making core varieties scarcer [7] - The convertible bond index has reached the upper range of its fluctuation zone, and opportunities in the index require catalysts, necessitating a focus on switching core varieties and monitoring for trading opportunities driven by sentiment [7]

金十数据6月19日讯，6月19日，据中国银行间市场交易商协会消息，首批运用科技创新债券风险分担工 具的项目正式落地。业内人士看来，配套创设科技创新债券风险分担工具，能够缓解股权投资市场社会 化募资难的问题，增强头部创投机构筹集长期稳定资金的能力。风险分担工具的创设，可显著提升民营 企业，信用资质较弱的初创期、成长期科创企业以及股权投资机构发债融资的可得性和便利性。债 市"科技板"已通过风险分担、资金传导链设计等机制初步打通"股债贷"联动。未来可能的深化措施包括 股债联动工具创新、设计含特殊条款的债券，既缓解企业短期偿债压力，又为投资者提供增值机会。 （中国基金报） 业内：创设科创债风险分担工具，可缓解股权投资市场募资难 ...