化工日报 | 2025-11-19 煤价大幅下跌，EG基差继续走弱 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价3907元/吨（较前一交易日变动-31元/吨，幅度-0.79%），EG华东市场现货价 3955元/吨（较前一交易日变动-20元/吨，幅度-0.50%），EG华东现货基差30元/吨（环比-12元/吨）。 生产利润方面：据隆众数据，乙烯制EG生产利润为-56美元/吨（环比+0美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为-974 元/吨（环比-7元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为73.2万吨（环比+7.1万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为61.8万吨（环比+5.4万吨）。据CCF数据，上周华东主港计划到港总数17万吨，副 港到港量4.7万吨；本周华东主港计划到港总数11.1万吨，副港到港量2.8万吨，整体中性。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，国内乙二醇负荷高位运行，国内供应表现宽裕；海外乙二醇海外装置变化有限， 11月中旬附近乙二醇到港计划依旧呈现中性偏多，港口库存预计逐步回升。需求端，近期随着降温，聚酯下游适 度好转，但聚酯负荷提升有 ...

中信证券研报称， 化工板块目前主要围绕三大主线进行交易：1）储能需求带动产业链景气度提升，上 游锂电等材料供需格局有望重塑，重点推荐新能源相关的材料标的、六氟磷酸锂、磷酸铁及磷酸铁锂产 业链；2）化工反内卷持续加码，多行业发起行业自律，化工品价格有望底部回暖；3）化工品行业自身 高景气，主营业务有望保持高增长。 ...

人民财讯11月19日电，中信证券研报称，化工板块目前主要围绕三大主线进行交易：1)储能需求带动产 业链景气度提升，上游锂电等材料供需格局有望重塑，重点推荐新能源相关的材料标的、六氟磷酸锂、 磷酸铁及磷酸铁锂产业链；2)化工"反内卷"持续加码，多行业发起行业自律，化工品价格有望底部回 暖；3)化工品行业自身高景气，主营业务有望保持高增长。 ...

化工日报 | 2025-11-18 主港大幅累库，EG基差走弱明显 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价3938元/吨（较前一交易日变动+16元/吨，幅度+0.41%），EG华东市场现货价 3975元/吨（较前一交易日变动-7元/吨，幅度-0.18%），EG华东现货基差42元/吨（环比-11元/吨）。 生产利润方面：据隆众数据，乙烯制EG生产利润为-56美元/吨（环比+4美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为-967 元/吨（环比+39元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为73.2万吨（环比+7.1万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为61.8万吨（环比+5.4万吨）。据CCF数据，上周华东主港计划到港总数17万吨，副 港到港量4.7万吨；本周华东主港计划到港总数11.1万吨，副港到港量2.8万吨，整体中性。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，国内乙二醇负荷高位运行，国内供应表现宽裕；海外乙二醇海外装置变化有限， 单边：中性。投产压力较大，随着港口库存的回升，场内货源流动性增加，乙二醇现货基差趋弱。但近期高成本 装置负反馈逐渐出现，高供应和累库压力 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - In the pure benzene market, the lowest point of US refinery operations has passed, but US gasoline inventories are at a low level, and gasoline cracks continue to strengthen, which supports Asian aromatics for blending. The arbitrage spread from South Korea to the US has recovered but not opened up. The future arrival pressure in China may slow down, but in the short term, there is a concentrated arrival of pure benzene in China, and port inventories are rising faster. Domestic production operations continue to increase, while downstream operations are weak. Styrene maintenance is concentrated, waiting for recovery at the end of the month; phenol operations are dragged down by low operations of bisphenol A and PC; CPL operations remain at a low level, waiting for inventory reduction; aniline and adipic acid operations are fair [2]. - In the styrene market, port inventories continue to decline, partly due to increased exports and partly due to low domestic operations. However, there are expectations of resumption in late November. Attention should be paid to whether the maintenance period will be further extended. Downstream demand for pick-up remains stable, but downstream operations are still low. EPS continues to reduce operations during the off-season, while ABS and PS operations are at a low level. Inventories of EPS and PS have decreased, but ABS still faces inventory pressure [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB Basis Structure, Inter - Period Spreads - Figures related to pure benzene basis and spreads include the pure benzene main contract basis, pure benzene spot - M2 paper cargo spread, and pure benzene continuous first - continuous third contract spread. Figures related to EB include the EB main contract trend & basis, EB main contract basis, and EB continuous first - continuous third contract spread [7][12][16]. 2. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Domestic - Foreign Spreads - Figures cover various aspects such as naphtha processing fees, the difference between pure benzene FOB South Korea and naphtha CFR Japan, styrene non - integrated plant production profits, and differences between pure benzene FOB US Gulf and other regions, as well as import profits of pure benzene and styrene [18][21][30]. 3. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventories, Operating Rates - For pure benzene, figures show the East China port inventory and operating rate. For styrene, figures display the East China port inventory, commercial inventory, factory inventory, and operating rate [36][38][41]. 4. Styrene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - Figures present the operating rates and production profits of EPS, PS, and ABS [46][48][53]. 5. Pure Benzene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - Figures include the operating rates and production profits of caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, adipic acid, as well as the production profits of related products such as PA6 regular spinning bright, nylon filament, bisphenol A, PC, epoxy resin E - 51, pure MDI, and polymer MDI [57][62][71].

Core Viewpoint - The chemical products sector, particularly methanol, has been the weakest performer in the domestic commodity market over the past two months, with methanol futures contracts experiencing a continuous decline and reaching a new low since July 2023 [1] Group 1: Supply and Inventory - High inventory pressure is the main reason for the continuous decline in methanol prices, with port inventories reaching multi-year highs [2] - As of November 13, China's methanol production capacity utilization rate was 87.08%, with port inventory totaling 1.5436 million tons, an increase of 56,500 tons from the previous week [2] - The supply pressure is expected to increase as domestic methanol production facilities resume operations and import shipments arrive, particularly in the East China region [2] Group 2: Demand Dynamics - Demand from traditional downstream sectors is expected to decline as they enter the off-season, leading to reduced procurement of raw materials [2] - The profitability of the polyolefin sector remains under pressure, which may further lower operational rates and reduce demand for methanol [2] - Despite no significant drop in pre-sale orders from methanol companies, year-on-year demand remains weak, especially with cautious purchasing from inland regions [2] Group 3: Market Outlook - Analysts generally believe that the weak methanol market is likely to continue due to high inventory levels and insufficient demand [3] - The ability for methanol prices to rebound will depend on inventory changes and production facility adjustments [3] - In the short term, the methanol market is expected to maintain a loose supply-demand balance, with a focus on monitoring port inventory changes and the operational status of MTO enterprises [3]

Group 1 - The main contract of methanol futures experienced a sharp decline, reaching a low of 2021.00 yuan, with a current price of 2030.00 yuan, reflecting a drop of 2.45% [1] Group 2 - New Lake Futures predicts that methanol will primarily experience low-level fluctuations in the short term due to sustained upstream operations and high import expectations [2] - The domestic upstream production remains stable, while the import volume is expected to remain high due to significant arrivals in October [2] - Downstream demand is generally weak, with traditional downstream demand showing average performance, although winter fuel demand is anticipated to increase [2] Group 3 - Zhonghui Futures indicates that the methanol market remains under pressure due to high inventory levels, with port inventories at their highest in nearly five years [3] - The supply side is characterized by high operating rates of domestic methanol facilities, while overseas facilities have slightly increased their output [3] - The overall demand remains weak, with MTO external procurement facility loads slightly declining, and traditional downstream operations showing a slight recovery [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report As of November 14, 2025, the domestic futures market shows a mixed performance. Some commodities like apples and soybeans have risen, while others such as methanol and glass have declined. Different commodities face various supply - demand situations, influenced by factors such as production, consumption, policies, and geopolitical events. Most commodities are expected to show weak and volatile trends due to factors like supply - demand imbalances, uncertain policies, and market sentiment [5][6]. 3. Summary by Commodity Metals - **Copper**: Supply is affected by smelter maintenance and policy - related procurement issues, with a decrease in the overall smelter operating rate. Demand is weak, with a decline in downstream copper product operating rates and an increase in inventory. The market is concerned about the uncertainty of the December interest - rate cut in the US, and the domestic fundamentals are weak, but the tight copper ore supply provides some support [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price has increased slightly. Supply shows growth, with an increase in domestic production and a decrease in imports from Chile. Demand is strong, driven by the energy - storage battery market. The supply - demand situation is tight, and the market is expected to remain strong after a correction [10]. - **Aluminum**: No relevant information provided. - **Nickel**: No detailed analysis provided, only mentioned in the list of declining commodities [5]. - **Tin**: No detailed analysis provided, only mentioned in the list of declining commodities [5]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ plans to increase production in December, which will increase the supply pressure in the fourth quarter but reduce it in the first quarter of next year. Saudi Aramco has lowered the official selling price. Demand has entered the off - season, and the overall inventory is increasing. The US has imposed sanctions on Russian oil companies, and the situation of Russian oil exports needs to be monitored. The market is expected to be in a supply - surplus situation, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile [11][13]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: No detailed analysis provided, only mentioned in the list of rising commodities [5]. - **Bitumen**: Supply has decreased, with a decline in the operating rate and production volume. Demand is affected by factors such as funds and weather, and it is expected to weaken further. The supply - surplus situation of crude oil has led to a decline in prices, and the bitumen futures price is expected to be weak and volatile [14]. Chemicals - **Methanol**: No detailed analysis provided, only mentioned in the list of declining commodities and as a contract with significant capital inflow [5][6]. - **Polypropylene (PP)**: The downstream operating rate is low, and the production proportion of standard products has decreased. Supply has increased with new capacity and some maintenance. The cost is affected by the supply - surplus situation of crude oil. The market lacks large - scale procurement, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile [15][16]. - **Plastic**: The operating rate has decreased, and the downstream operating rate is also low. Supply has increased with new capacity. The cost is affected by the supply - surplus situation of crude oil. The demand in the peak season is not as expected, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile [17]. - **PVC**: The supply operating rate has decreased, and the downstream operating rate has also declined slightly. The export situation is affected by policies, and the inventory is still high. The real - estate market is in the adjustment stage, and the price is expected to be in a state of shock adjustment [19]. Agricultural Products - **Apples**: No detailed analysis provided, only mentioned in the list of rising commodities [5]. - **Soybeans**: No detailed analysis provided, only mentioned in the list of rising commodities and as a contract with significant capital inflow [5][6]. Others - **Coking Coal**: The price has increased slightly. Supply has increased with the recovery of Mongolian coal imports and domestic production. The inventory situation varies among different sectors. The demand is affected by the weakening profitability of steel mills, and the market is expected to weaken [20][21]. - **Urea**: The price has remained stable with a slight decline. Supply has increased with new production capacity. The demand is affected by environmental inspections and the off - season of agricultural demand. The inventory is decreasing, and the market is expected to be in a short - term strong adjustment [22]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 have all declined [6]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year contract has declined slightly, the 5 - year and 10 - year contracts have remained flat, and the 30 - year contract has increased slightly [6].

化工日报 | 2025-11-14 EG高供应，本周主港延续累库 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价3892元/吨（较前一交易日变动+1元/吨，幅度+0.03%），EG华东市场现货价 3943元/吨（较前一交易日变动-22元/吨，幅度-0.55%），EG华东现货基差59元/吨（环比-3元/吨）。 生产利润方面：据隆众数据，乙烯制EG生产利润为-62美元/吨（环比-1美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为-987 元/吨（环比-38元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为66.1万吨（环比+9.9万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为61.8万吨（环比+5.4万吨）。据CCF数据，上周华东主港计划到港总数14.6万吨，副 港到港量6.1万吨；本周华东主港计划到港总数18.1万吨，副港到港量4.7万吨，本周到港计划较多，预计将再度累 库。隆众口径周四较周一累库1.3万吨。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，国内乙二醇负荷高位运行，国内供应表现宽裕；海外乙二醇海外装置变化有限， 11月中旬附近乙二醇到港计划依旧呈现中性偏多，港口库存预计逐步回升 ...

芳烃橡胶早报 | 天 然 橡 胶 | | & | 2 0 号 胶 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 美金泰标 | 美金泰混 | 人民币混 | 上海全乳 | 上海3L | | | | 泰国胶水 泰国杯胶 云南胶水 海南胶水 顺丁橡胶 RU主力 | | | NR主力 | | | 现货 | 现货 | 合胶 | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/11/0 7 | 1810 | 1800 | 14520 | 14295 | 14950 | 56.3 | 50.9 | 13800 | 16000 | 10350 | 14995 | 12035 | | 2025/11/1 0 | 1830 | 1810 | 14610 | 14410 | 15050 | 56.3 | 50.9 | 13800 | 16000 | 10350 | 15110 | 12165 | | 2025/11/1 1 | 1830 | 1805 | 14610 ...