投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-09-24 地缘再次扰动油价，化⼯超跌有反弹需 求 在北约表示将对俄罗斯侵犯其领空的行为做出"有力"回应后，局势 进一步升级，加剧了对于俄罗斯原油供应的担忧。北约表示，将利用包括 军事在内的一切选项来保护自己。美国国务卿重申了美国对北约组织的承 诺。与此同时，俄罗斯政府正考虑对一些公司实施柴油出口禁令，原因是 乌克兰无人机对该国石油精炼厂发起了一系列攻击。北约的表态让市场重 新关注到俄乌地缘对油价的影响，俄罗斯的成品油出口真实发生了减量。 板块逻辑： 化工贸易数据公布。大部分品种进口同比下滑，而甲醇的进口同比增 长了44%，PX进口同比增16%，纯苯进口同比也增长8.4%；出口方面表现亮 眼的品种是PVC、PE、PP和苯乙烯。聚酯链中短纤8月出口接近5月创下的 出口记录，瓶片出口降至6个月低点。贸易数据对价格的影响很可能已经 反映到盘面上，化工链条估值近期略有压缩，原油反弹可能引发产业链的 补库需求，化工品价格近期将企稳。 原油：地缘担忧重燃，供应压力延续 沥青：沥青-燃油价差快速下行 高硫燃油：地缘扰动驱动燃油期价大涨 ...

纯苯苯乙烯日报 | 2025-09-24 EB基差进一步走弱 纯苯与苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面：纯苯主力基差-30元/吨（+36）。纯苯港口库存10.70万吨（-2.70万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费132美元/吨 （-3美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国加工费114美元/吨（-2美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差37.5美元/吨（-3.0美元/吨）。华东纯苯 现货-M2价差0元/吨（+20元/吨）。 纯苯下游方面：己内酰胺生产利润-1890元/吨（-85），酚酮生产利润-196元/吨（+0），苯胺生产利润62元/吨（+91）， 己二酸生产利润-1306元/吨（-12）。己内酰胺开工率88.69%（+2.48%），苯酚开工率71.00%（+2.00%），苯胺开工 率71.95%（+6.74%），己二酸开工率62.60%（-1.60%）。 苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差0元/吨（-42元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润-562元/吨（-87元/吨），预期逐步压缩。 苯乙烯华东港口库存186500吨（+27500吨），苯乙烯华东商业库存98500吨（+20500吨），处于库存回建阶段。苯乙 烯开工率73.4%（-1.5%）。 ...

供需平稳库存略增，乙二醇短期无利好驱动 一、日度市场总结 主力合约与基差：2025年9月22日，乙二醇主力合约期货价格为4240元/ 吨，较9月19日下跌17元/吨，跌幅0.4%；华东市场现货价为4335元/吨，较 9月19日下跌10元/吨，跌幅0.23%；基差为110元/吨，较9月19日上涨17元/ 吨，涨幅18.28%。MEG 1 - 5价差为 - 54元/吨，较9月19日上涨6元/吨； MEG 5 - 9价差为 - 44元/吨，较9月19日下跌23元/吨；MEG 9 - 1价差为 98元/吨，较9月19日上涨17元/吨。煤制利润为 - 476元/吨，与9月19日持 平。 持仓与成交：主力合约成交113147手，较9月19日减少26852手，降幅 19.18%；主力合约持仓329607手，较9月19日增加432手，增幅0.13%。 供给端：乙二醇总体开工率、煤制开工率、油制开工率、乙烯制开工率、 甲 醇 制 开 工 率 均 与 9 月 19 日 持 平 ， 分 别 为 70.8% 、 65.66% 、 74.39% 、 66.73%、62.43%，供给端较为稳定。 需求端：聚酯工厂负荷和江浙织机负荷均与9 ...

化工日报 | 2025-09-23 EG主港库存持稳略增，市场弱势整理 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价4240元/吨（较前一交易日变动-17元/吨，幅度-0.40%），EG华东市场现货价 4342元/吨（较前一交易日变动-10元/吨，幅度-0.23%），EG华东现货基差（基于2509合约）93元/吨（环比+1元/吨）。 周一，乙二醇港口库存较上周同期持稳略增，需求未见好转，EG价格震荡偏弱市场弱势整理。 生产利润方面：乙烯制EG生产利润为-70美元/吨（环比+2美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为-228元/吨（环比 -25元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为46.7万吨（环比+0.2万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为38.4万吨（环比+2.1万吨）。上周主港实际到货总数8.3万吨，周度港口库存持稳略 累；本周华东主港计划到港总数7.3万吨，到港量中性偏低，副港计划到港量2.3万吨。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，国内乙二醇负荷高位持稳，海外近期乙二醇海外供应损失依旧较多，沙特仍有两 套以上装置处于停车或低负荷运行状态， ...

甲醇产业风险管理日报 2025/09/22 张博（投资咨询证号：Z0021070） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 甲醇价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 | 2200-2500 | 20.01% | 51.2% | | 聚丙烯 | 6800-7400 | 10.56% | 42.2% | | 塑料 | 6800-7400 | 15.24% | 78.5% | source： 南华研究 甲醇套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | （%） | 区间 | | 理 | 跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空甲醇期货来锁定利 润，弥补企业的生产成本 | MA2601 | 卖出 | 25% | 2250-235 0 15 ...

Group 1 - The weekly production of ethylene glycol in China is 407,500 tons, an increase of 2,900 tons from the previous week, representing a 0.72% rise [1] - The domestic ethylene glycol total capacity utilization rate is 67.04%, up by 0.48% week-on-week [1] - As of September 22, the total MEG inventory in the East China main port area is 408,500 tons, an increase of 24,800 tons from the previous period [1] Group 2 - Domestic ethylene glycol supply pressure is gradually increasing, but low port inventory combined with slow recovery in downstream demand leads to a stalemate in the ethylene glycol fundamentals [2] - The market sentiment is mainly affected by the advancement of new installations and weak terminal market conditions, resulting in a generally weak holding intention among traders [2] - Short-term ethylene glycol prices are expected to adjust at low levels [2]

Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] Core Views - On September 18, the closing price of the main EG contract was 4,268 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton or 0.67% from the previous trading day; the spot price in the East China market was 4,362 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton or 0.25%; the East China spot basis was 83 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton [1] - The ethylene - made EG production profit was -$71/ton, up $2/ton; the coal - made syngas EG production profit was -180 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton [1] - According to CCF data, the MEG inventory at the East China main port was 46.5 tons, up 0.6 tons; according to Longzhong data, it was 38.4 tons, up 2.1 tons. As of September 18, the inventory was 38.37 tons, down 1.19 tons or 3% from Monday, up 2.05 tons from last Thursday [1] - On the supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol load remained high and stable, and there were still many overseas supply losses. The import volume from September to October may be revised down. On the demand side, the demand recovery was slow, and the polyester load was expected to increase slightly [2] - In September, the EG balance sheet was slightly balanced, and the main port inventory was expected to remain low, but the early commissioning of two new plants suppressed market sentiment [2] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,268 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton or 0.67% from the previous trading day; the East China spot price was 4,362 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton or 0.25%; the East China spot basis was 83 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The ethylene - made EG production profit was -$71/ton, up $2/ton; the coal - made syngas EG production profit was -180 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton [1] International Spread - No specific data was provided in the text Downstream Sales and Operation - The demand recovery was slow, orders were insufficient, and the polyester load was expected to increase slightly, but the increase might be limited [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the MEG inventory at the East China main port was 46.5 tons, up 0.6 tons; according to Longzhong data, it was 38.4 tons, up 2.1 tons. As of September 18, the inventory was 38.37 tons, down 1.19 tons or 3% from Monday, up 2.05 tons from last Thursday [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - All energy - chemical products, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and PVC, are expected to show a volatile trend [1][3][4][6][8][9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - On Thursday, WTI October contract closed down $0.48 to $63.57 per barrel, a 0.75% decline; Brent November contract closed down $0.51 to $67.44 per barrel, a 0.75% decline; SC2511 closed at 488.8 yuan per barrel, down 7.5 yuan per barrel, a 1.51% decline [1]. - Ukraine increased attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, with two Russian refineries attacked and a petrochemical plant on fire. The EU plans to phase out Russian gas and oil imports by the end of 2027, opposed by Hungary and Slovakia [1]. - In August, Russia's seaborne oil product exports increased 8.9% from July to 9.44 million tons due to refinery maintenance completion and increased fuel production. After the Fed's interest - rate hike, oil prices will remain volatile [1]. 3.1.2 Fuel Oil - On Thursday, the main fuel oil contract FU2601 on the SHFE closed down 1.24% at 2798 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2511 closed down 1.07% at 3410 yuan per ton [3]. - As of September 17, Singapore's on - land fuel oil inventory decreased by 111.8 million barrels (14.21%) week - on - week; Fujeirah's fuel oil inventory decreased by 170.5 million barrels (24.03%) week - on - week [3]. - Although the autumn refinery maintenance season may tighten the low - sulfur fuel oil supply in Asia, the market will remain well - supplied before October. The high - sulfur market is supported by stable demand and weak refining margins, but supply is still abundant. The prices of FU and LU will follow the cost - end crude oil fluctuations [3]. 3.1.3 Asphalt - On Thursday, the main asphalt contract BU2511 on the SHFE closed down 0.35% at 3427 yuan per ton [3]. - This week, the shipment of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises increased by 14.6% week - on - week; the capacity utilization rate of 69 modified asphalt enterprises reached 20.2%, a 1.7% week - on - week and 3.6% year - on - year increase, hitting a three - year high [3]. - Supply is expected to decline slightly in the remaining weeks of September. Demand in the north is supported by good weather, while the south faces increased rainfall. Considering the continuous losses of non - quota refineries, supply pressure is limited. With the arrival of the peak demand season, asphalt prices may rise, and attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations and demand fulfillment [3]. 3.1.4 Polyester - TA601 closed at 4666 yuan per ton, down 0.98%; EG2601 closed at 4268 yuan per ton, down 0.67%. PX futures closed at 6684 yuan per ton, down 1.3% [4]. - Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester yarn sales were weak, with an average sales rate of 40% - 50%. A 300,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Inner Mongolia plans to shut down for maintenance from October 10 for 20 - 30 days; a 600,000 - ton/year plant in Xinjiang is restarting; two US MEG plants with a total capacity of 380,000 tons/year have shut down for about a month [4]. - As of September 18, the overall ethylene glycol operating load in mainland China was 74.93%, up 0.02% from the previous period. PX supply has recovered, and downstream TA has new maintenance, so PX prices are expected to fluctuate with oil prices. With the increase in TA maintenance in the fourth quarter and the rebound in the peak demand season, TA fundamentals are expected to improve. For ethylene glycol, effective supply recovery in October depends on the restart of Satellite Petrochemical. The port inventory is expected to remain low, but the far - month supply is abundant, and the downstream demand improvement is less than expected, with a strong expectation of basis correction [4]. 3.1.5 Rubber - On Thursday, the main Shanghai rubber contract RU2601 fell 310 yuan per ton to 15,570 yuan per ton; the NR main contract fell 290 yuan per ton to 12,300 yuan per ton; the butadiene rubber BR main contract fell 175 yuan per ton to 11,415 yuan per ton [6]. - This week, the operating load of domestic tire enterprises' semi - steel tires was 74.58%, up 0.28 percentage points from last week and down 2.17 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating load of Shandong tire enterprises' full - steel tires was 64.96%, up 0.09 percentage points from last week and up 7.57 percentage points from the same period last year [6]. - After the Fed's interest - rate cut, the macro - environment weakened, and rubber products led the decline. Typhoons brought limited rainfall to domestic rubber - producing areas, and production is expected to recover. Tire operating rates were flat week - on - week, and automobile sales in the fourth quarter are estimated to reach 8.38 million, a 3% increase for the year, with less sales pressure. Rubber supply and demand are both increasing, and rubber prices will fluctuate with the macro - environment [6]. 3.1.6 Methanol - On Thursday, the spot price in Taicang was 2247 yuan per ton, the price in Inner Mongolia's northern line was 2090 yuan per ton, the CFR China price was $264 - 268 per ton, and the CFR Southeast Asia price was $324 - 329 per ton [6]. - Downstream, the formaldehyde price in Shandong was 1075 yuan per ton, the acetic acid price in Jiangsu was 2500 - 2560 yuan per ton, and the MTBE price in Shandong was 5160 yuan per ton [6][8]. - Recently, many domestic methanol plants have been under maintenance, resulting in a temporary low supply. Overseas, Iranian plants have high operating loads, and although there are short - term shutdowns, shipping volumes are stable, and arrivals are expected to remain high. The Xingxing plant has restarted, and the supply - demand gap in East China is narrowing, with port inventory expected to peak. Methanol prices are expected to reach a phased bottom [8]. 3.1.7 Polyolefins - On Thursday, the mainstream price of East China PP was 6780 - 6950 yuan per ton. Oil - based PP had a loss of 481.35 yuan per ton, coal - based PP had a profit of 399.87 yuan per ton, methanol - based PP had a loss of 980.67 yuan per ton, propane - dehydrogenated PP had a loss of 839.47 yuan per ton, and externally - sourced propylene - based PP had a loss of 411.47 yuan per ton [8]. - For PE, HDPE film prices were 8023 yuan per ton, up 8 yuan per ton from last week; LDPE film prices were 9639 yuan per ton, down 9 yuan per ton; LLDPE film prices were 7447 yuan per ton, down 8 yuan per ton [8]. - Supply will remain high and volatile. With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak demand season, orders are picking up, and the industry's operating rate is rising. Polyolefin demand is marginally improving, supply changes are limited, the supply - demand gap is narrowing, but the cost side is under pressure, and polyolefin prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [8]. 3.1.8 PVC - On Thursday, the East China PVC market partially declined, with calcium - carbide - type 5 material at 4720 - 4850 yuan per ton and ethylene - type material at 4900 - 5050 yuan per ton; the North China PVC market was stable, with calcium - carbide - type 5 material at 4660 - 4820 yuan per ton and ethylene - type material at 4840 - 4980 yuan per ton; the South China PVC market was range - bound, with calcium - carbide - type 5 material at 4850 - 4900 yuan per ton and ethylene - type material at 4920 - 5020 yuan per ton [8][9]. - Domestic real - estate construction has stabilized and rebounded, but is still weak year - on - year. The operating rates of pipes and profiles are expected to increase slightly. Supply remains high and volatile, domestic demand recovers slowly, and exports will weaken due to India's anti - dumping policy. Although the basis and inter - month spread are high, inventory has been transferred from refineries to the market, and the total inventory pressure is large. However, this has been priced in. The market is now trading on the "anti - involution" concept, and short - term PVC prices may rebound but with limited upside [9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on the basis, basis rate, spot price, and futures price of various energy - chemical products, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, urea, polyethylene, polypropylene, PTA, ethylene glycol, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, and soda ash, as well as their changes and historical quantiles [10]. 3.3 Market News - In August, Russia's seaborne oil product exports increased by 8.9% month - on - month to 9.44 million tons due to the completion of refinery maintenance and increased fuel production. Exports from Baltic ports increased by 12.3% to 5.326 million tons, those from Black Sea and Azov Sea ports increased by 3.6% to 3.392 million tons, and those from Arctic ports decreased by 22.6% to 30,700 tons [12]. - Kuwait's oil minister, Tariq Al - Roumi, expects an increase in oil demand after the US interest - rate cut, especially in the Asian market. He also believes that new sanctions on Russia will have a positive impact on oil prices [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents charts of the closing prices of main contracts for various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - number rubber, rubber, synthetic rubber, European line container shipping, p - xylene, and bottle chips [14][15][18][20][22][26][28]. 3.4.2 Main Contract Basis - Charts show the basis of main contracts for various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [29][35][38][41][42]. 3.4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides charts of inter - period contract spreads for fuel oil, asphalt, European line container shipping index, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [44][46][49][52][53][57][59]. 3.4.4 Inter - variety Spreads - Charts display inter - variety spreads, including crude oil internal - external spreads, B - W spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - number rubber spread [61][63][68][69]. 3.4.5 Production Profits - The report includes charts of production profits for ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE [71][73]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team consists of several analysts: - Zhong Meiyan, the assistant director of the research institute and director of energy - chemical research, has over ten years of experience in futures and derivatives research [77]. - Du Bingqin, an analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, has in - depth research on the energy industry [78]. - Di Yilin, a rubber and polyester analyst, is good at data analysis [79]. - Peng Haibo, an analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, has experience in energy - chemical spot - futures trading [80].

Group 1: Price Information - Spot price of naphtha CFR Japan on 2025/9/18 was $599.38 per ton, down 1.56% from the previous value [1] - Price index of ethylene in Northeast Asia on 2025/9/17 was $851.00 per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - Factory - average price of ethylene oxide in East China on 2025/9/19 was 6,300 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - Spot price of methanol MA on 2025/9/18 was 2,280 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - Pit - mouth price (tax - included brown coal) of coal (Q3500 in Inner Mongolia) on 2025/9/18 was 290 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - DCE EG主力合约收盘价 on 2025/9/18 was 4,268 yuan per ton, down 0.67% from the previous value [1] - DCE EG主力合约结算价 on 2025/9/18 was 4,282 yuan per ton, down 0.16% from the previous value [1] - DCE EG近月合约收盘价 on 2025/9/18 was 4,338 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - DCE EG近月合约结算价 on 2025/9/18 was 4,338 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - Market price (mid - price) of ethylene glycol (MEG in East China) on 2025/9/18 was 4,370 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - CCFEI price index of ethylene glycol MEG domestic on 2025/9/18 was 4,345 yuan per ton, down 0.80% from the previous value [1] - Near - far month price difference on 2025/9/18 was 56 yuan per ton, up 7 yuan from the previous value [1] - Basis on 2025/9/18 was 77 yuan per ton, down 6 yuan from the previous value [1] - CCFEI price index of polyester DTY on 2025/9/18 was 8,550 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - CCFEI price index of polyester POY on 2025/9/18 was 7,000 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber on 2025/9/18 was 6,465 yuan per ton, down 0.08% from the previous value [1] - CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips on 2025/9/18 was 5,820 yuan per ton, down 0.51% from the previous value [1] Group 2: Operating Conditions - Operating rate of ethylene glycol (comprehensive) on 2025/9/18 was 61.32%, down 0.88% from the previous value [1] - Operating rate of ethylene glycol (petroleum - based) on 2025/9/18 was 63.52%, down 1.48% from the previous value [1] - Operating rate of ethylene glycol (coal - based) on 2025/9/18 was 58.14%, unchanged from the previous value [1] - PTA industrial chain load rate of polyester factories on 2025/9/18 was 89.00%, up 0.22% from the previous value [1] - PTA industrial chain load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms on 2025/9/18 was 67.55%, up 2.01% from the previous value [1] Group 3: Cash - flow and Gross - profit Situation - Cash - flow of naphtha - based ethylene glycol (outer - market) on 2025/9/17 was - $126.19 per ton, down 0.69% from the previous value [1] - Cash - flow of ethylene - based ethylene glycol (outer - market) on 2025/9/17 was - $139.15 per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - After - tax gross profit of MTO - made MEG on 2025/9/18 was - 1,485.02 yuan per ton, down 19.74% from the previous value [1] - After - tax gross profit of coal - based synthesis gas method device on 2025/9/18 was 382.30 yuan per ton, down 25.66 yuan from the previous value [1]

Group 1 - The chemical sector is experiencing price fluctuations that follow the trends of crude oil and coal, with a focus on whether undervalued chemical products will rebound significantly [1] - For PTA, the current spot processing fee is consistently below 150 RMB/ton, while the breakeven point exceeds 250-300 RMB/ton, indicating a potential for processing fee recovery due to the negative basis [1] - New production facilities have been delayed, impacting the processing fees for the PTA industry, which has a capacity of over 80 million tons, suggesting that the current processing fees are unsustainable [1] Group 2 - The supply pressure from crude oil continues, with geopolitical risks needing attention [1] - Various chemical products are experiencing different market dynamics, such as methanol port inventory accumulation slowing down and urea transactions being limited [1] - The overall sentiment in the market remains cautious, with macroeconomic factors providing only temporary boosts to chemical prices, leading to an overall oscillating trend [1]