Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The short - term outlook for ethylene glycol may be a low - level oscillating pattern. The marginal contraction of supply provides bottom support for prices, but the lack of improvement in the polyester and terminal weaving loads on the demand side, along with the increase in port inventories to a yearly high, suppresses the price rebound space. Future attention should be paid to cost - side fluctuations in crude oil/coal and the seasonal improvement rhythm of downstream orders. If inventory depletion fails to meet expectations, prices may test previous lows again [2][3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Price and Basis**: From September 30 to October 9, the price of the ethylene glycol main futures contract dropped from 4,207 yuan/ton to 4,158 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.16%, showing a five - day consecutive downward trend. The East China spot price also fell by 45 yuan/ton to 4,230 yuan/ton. The basis widened from 63 yuan/ton to 112 yuan/ton, deepening the futures discount [2]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: The position of the main contract increased by 6.77% to 335,300 lots, and the trading volume increased by 6.35% to 145,463 lots, indicating intensified market divergence and active short - side position - increasing during the price decline [2]. - **Supply Side**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate decreased by 1 percentage point to 70.33%, with a significant 1.6 - percentage - point decline in the oil - based unit operating rate to 75.3%, while the coal - based operating rate remained unchanged at 62.95%. The contraction of oil - based production capacity provides marginal support to the supply side [2]. - **Demand Side**: The polyester factory load remained stable at 89.42%, and the Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load remained at 63.43%. Terminal demand showed no obvious improvement, with downstream purchases mainly for rigid demand. The polyester segment lacked incremental drivers for ethylene glycol consumption [2]. - **Inventory Side**: The East China main port inventory increased by 5.9 tons to 48.57 tons, and the Zhangjiagang inventory soared by 40.6% to 18 tons in a single week. The arrival volume decreased by 6.7 tons to 10.17 tons, indicating low actual port shipments and accelerating inventory pressure [3]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The main contract price of MEG futures decreased by 1.16% to 4,158 yuan/ton, and the East China spot price decreased by 1.05% to 4,230 yuan/ton. The basis widened by 77.78% to 112 yuan/ton [5]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: The main contract position increased by 6.77% to 335,300 lots, and the trading volume increased by 6.35% to 145,463 lots [5]. - **Operating Rates**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate decreased by 1.37% to 70.3%, with the oil - based operating rate dropping by 2.13% to 75.3%, while the coal - based operating rate remained unchanged [5]. - **Inventory and Arrival Volume**: The East China main port inventory increased by 13.69% to 48.6 tons, the Zhangjiagang inventory increased by 40.62% to 18 tons, and the arrival volume decreased by 39.72% to 10.17 tons [5]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - On October 9, the East China US - dollar market first declined and then slightly recovered, with no reported transactions. The mainstream market center dropped, and prices in the South China, Shaanxi, and East China markets all decreased due to weak supply - demand patterns and downstream demand [6]. - During the holiday, international oil prices fell, weakening cost - side support. Domestic ethylene glycol supply increased, and port inventories accumulated [6]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts such as the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, domestic ethylene glycol unit operating rates, downstream polyester unit operating rates, and ethylene glycol inventory statistics [7][9][11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of pure benzene is expected to remain high in the fourth quarter, while the demand is weak, leading to a difficult - to - change inventory accumulation pattern. The supply of styrene is tightening due to increased device maintenance, and it is expected to increase in mid - to - late October when new device production is realized. From September to November, styrene will maintain a tight balance, but its upward space is limited. In the short term, it will mainly follow crude oil fluctuations, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended for single - sided trading. One can consider widening the price spread between pure benzene and styrene when the price is low [4]. - Macro factors such as the "anti - involution", the Fourth Plenary Session in October, and the 14th Five - Year Plan outline need to be monitored. In the absence of obvious fundamental drivers, macro sentiment will affect the market [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range for pure benzene is predicted to be between 5,600 and 6,200 yuan/ton, and for styrene, it is between 6,600 and 7,200 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility of styrene is 29.40%, and its historical percentile over three years is 85.8% [3]. - **Hedging Strategies**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, they can short styrene futures (EB2511) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 6,850 - 6,950 yuan/ton. They can also sell call options (EB2511C7000) with a 50% ratio at a premium range of 45 - 60 to reduce costs and lock in the selling price if styrene prices rise [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory, they can buy styrene futures (EB2511) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 6,700 - 6,750 yuan/ton. They can also sell put options (EB2511P6800) with a 75% ratio at a premium range of 120 - 140 to reduce procurement costs and lock in the purchase price if styrene prices fall [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions and Market Analysis - **Pure Benzene**: In the fourth quarter, the overall maintenance loss of pure benzene is not high, small long - shut devices plan to resume production, and there are import transactions from Europe to China. On the demand side, downstream production and maintenance coexist, and the peak season is likely to be weak this year, so the high supply cannot be digested, and the inventory accumulation pattern is difficult to change [4]. - **Styrene**: Device maintenance has increased, and the supply has tightened. New device production is expected to increase supply in mid - to - late October. From September to November, it will maintain a tight balance, but high inventory and the drag from upstream pure benzene limit its upward space [4]. 3.3利多 and利空 Factors - **利多 Factors**: As of October 9, the port inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu decreased by 1.5 million tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month decline of 33.7%. Multiple styrene devices, including Jingbosi D睿, Anhui Jiaxi, and Lianyungang Petrochemical, plan to shut down for maintenance, making it difficult to further compress the price spread between pure benzene and styrene [4]. - **利空 Factors**: As of October 9, the port sample inventory of styrene in Jiangsu increased by 0.44 million tons compared to the previous period, an increase of 2.23%. Some devices of Zhejiang Petrochemical have restarted as planned, offsetting part of the new maintenance losses. Two large - scale styrene devices of Jilin Petrochemical and Guangxi Petrochemical are planned to be put into production in the fourth quarter [7]. 3.4 Basis and Price Spread Changes - **Basis Changes**: The basis of pure benzene and styrene in the East China market has changed compared to the previous period. For example, the basis of East China - BZ03 for pure benzene decreased from 60 to - 13, a decrease of 73 [8]. - **Price Spread Changes**: The price spreads of pure benzene, styrene, and the pure benzene - styrene industry chain have changed. For example, the price spread between styrene spot and pure benzene spot increased from 1,035 to 1,075 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton [8]. 3.5 Price and Profit Data - **Price Data**: The prices of various products in the pure benzene - styrene industry chain have changed. For example, the price of Brent crude oil on October 9 was 66.08 US dollars/barrel, and the price of pure benzene in the East China market was 5,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan/ton compared to the previous period [9]. - **Profit Data**: The production profits of pure benzene and the profits of downstream products of styrene have also changed. For example, the production profit of pure benzene increased from 173 to 314 yuan/ton, an increase of 141 yuan/ton [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints PTA - Cost side: The expectation of supply-demand surplus remains, but it will take time for the surplus pressure to materialize. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. The increase in PX due to the restart of short - process production at home and abroad and the postponement of some device maintenance is significant. With the compression of PTA profit margins, the postponement of new device launches and clear maintenance plans will further affect PX demand. PXN is expected to show a weak performance, and the cost support is average. - Supply - demand: In October, INEOS and Hengli have maintenance plans, and the restart time of Yisheng Dalian and Hainan is undetermined, so the supply - side operating rate is average. After the sales volume increased in late September, the significant decline in polyester factory inventory may delay the expected reduction in polyester production, and the supply - demand is expected to be in a tight - balance state [5]. MEG - Before the holiday: Driven by the rebound in demand and oil prices, the polyester market was booming, the inventory of POY and FDY in the pre - spinning of filament yarn decreased rapidly, and prices rebounded by 100 - 150 yuan. During the holiday, polyester prices were stable, and the sales volume of filament yarn was only 10% - 20%. It is expected that the inventory will increase by more than 5 days in 8 days on average. - Future outlook: With the successful launch of Yulong Petrochemical, ethylene glycol has entered a new launch cycle. The fundamental structure of ethylene glycol is weak in the fourth quarter. The inventory is expected to increase by about 70,000 - 80,000 tons in October. Attention should be paid to the implementation of maintenance plans for devices such as Fulaian and Shenghong. The inventory increase will be more obvious from November to December, and there is also an expectation of new device launches in the far - month, so attention should be paid to the macro - level and device changes [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 2. Daily Tips PTA - Fundamental: During the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays, the PTA market showed a pattern of "weak supply and demand, price under pressure", with unstable cost support, loose supply, and the recovery of downstream demand falling short of expectations [6]. - Basis: The spot price is 4545, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 49, with the futures price higher than the spot price [6]. - Inventory: The inventory of PTA factories is 3.75 days, a decrease of 0.05 days compared to the previous period [6]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [6]. - Main position: Net short position, and short positions are increasing [6]. MEG - Fundamental: Before the holiday, driven by the rebound in demand and oil prices, the polyester market was booming, and the inventory of POY and FDY in the pre - spinning of filament yarn decreased rapidly to about half a month, and prices rebounded by 100 - 150 yuan. During the holiday, polyester prices were stable, and the sales volume of filament yarn was only 10% - 20%. It is expected that the inventory will increase by more than 5 days in 8 days on average. In terms of polyester load, attention should be paid to whether bottle chips will restart in October. Due to the improvement in pre - holiday sales, the inventory of filament yarn has decreased significantly, and the short - term pressure to further reduce production is not large, but the physical inventory still has pressure. From November to December, attention should be paid to demand changes, and filament yarn and chips may still reduce production [7]. - Basis: The spot price is 4275, and the basis of the 01 contract is 68, with the spot price higher than the futures price [8]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China is 404,300 tons, an increase of 22,600 tons compared to the previous period [8]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [8]. - Main position: Net short position, and short positions are decreasing [7]. 3. Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 4. Fundamental Data PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the PTA supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to December 2025, including data on PTA production capacity, production, imports, total supply, polyester production, consumption, exports, total demand, inventory, and supply - demand gap [12]. Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the ethylene glycol supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to December 2025, including data on ethylene glycol production, imports, total supply, polyester production, consumption, exports, total demand, port inventory, and supply - demand gap [13]. 5. Price The report presents multiple price - related charts, including bottle - chip spot prices, bottle - chip production margins, bottle - chip capacity utilization, bottle - chip inventory, PTA basis, MEG inter - month spreads, MEG basis, spot spreads, and the processing margin of p - xylene [15][29][32]. 6. Inventory Analysis The report includes inventory - related charts of various products, such as PTA factory inventory, MEG port inventory, PET chip factory inventory, and polyester fiber inventory [41]. 7. Polyester Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates The report shows the operating rate charts of polyester upstream (PTA, p - xylene, ethylene glycol) and downstream (polyester factories, Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms) [52][56]. 8. Profit Analysis The report presents profit - related charts of various products, including PTA processing fees, MEG production margins from different production methods, polyester fiber short - fiber production margins, and polyester fiber long - fiber production margins [61][62].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the report. Core Views - The oil market is expected to face increasing supply pressure in the medium to long term. In the short term, oil prices are likely to remain weak, with Brent crude oil expected to trade in the range of $65 - $67 per barrel [2]. - The asphalt market is expected to be in a state of weak oscillation. The supply - demand balance is becoming more relaxed, and the valuation is relatively high [4][5][6]. - The fuel oil market, both high - sulfur and low - sulfur, is expected to be weak. High - sulfur fuel oil is affected by high inventories, and low - sulfur fuel oil has increasing supply and lack of demand drivers [6][8][9]. - The PX and PTA markets are expected to oscillate. Their prices are greatly influenced by oil prices and the macro - economic situation, but the supply - demand contradiction of PTA will be alleviated later [10][12][13]. - The ethylene glycol market is expected to oscillate in the short term due to the balance between supply reduction and demand increase [13][15]. - The short - fiber market is expected to oscillate, and its processing fee is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with prices following raw material trends [14][15][17]. - The PR (bottle - chip) market is expected to oscillate. The market supply is relatively abundant, and the demand is transitioning from peak to off - peak season, with processing fees expected to fluctuate at a low level [17][18][19]. - The pure benzene and styrene markets are expected to be weak. Pure benzene supply is expected to increase, and downstream demand lacks support. Styrene may face inventory accumulation pressure [19][20][22]. - The propylene market is expected to be in a state of relaxation, with increasing supply and poor downstream product profits [24][25]. - The PVC market is expected to be weak in the medium term, facing new production capacity pressure and weak demand, but with short - term observation recommended [26][27]. - The caustic soda market is expected to improve in the medium term, with a recommendation to buy on dips [28][29]. - The plastic PP market is expected to be weak in the short term and a strategy of short - selling on rebounds is recommended in the medium term [30][31]. - The log market has a situation of weak supply and demand, with a recommendation to observe mainly, and aggressive investors can consider a small - scale long - position layout [32][33]. - The offset - printing paper market has a pattern of oversupply, and it is recommended to short - sell the 01 contract near the lower limit of the spot market price [33][34]. - The pulp market has a certain degree of support below, but the high port inventory and weak demand suppress the rebound space. It is recommended to try a small - scale long - position in the SP main 11 contract [34][35][37]. - The natural rubber and 20 - number rubber market: hold short positions in the RU main 01 contract and consider taking profits on short positions in the NR main 11 contract [37][38][39]. - The butadiene rubber market: hold short positions in the BR main 11 contract [40][41][42]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - **Crude Oil**: WTI2510 contract closed at $62.68, down $0.89 per barrel (-1.40%); Brent2511 contract closed at $66.68, down $0.76 per barrel (-1.13%); SC2511 contract closed at 491.2 yuan/barrel, down 5.1 yuan, and dropped 7.6 yuan to 483.6 yuan/barrel at night [1]. - **Asphalt**: BU2511 closed at 3421 points (+0.00%) at night; BU2512 closed at 3372 points (-0.06%) at night [4]. - **Fuel Oil**: FU01 contract closed at 2782 (-1.28%) at night; LU11 closed at 3370 (-1.03%) at night [6]. - **PX & PTA**: PX2511 main contract closed at 6594 (-1.35%) during the day and 6600 (+0.09%) at night; TA601 main contract closed at 4604 (-1.33%) during the day and 4602 (-0.04%) at night [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: EG2601 main contract closed at 4257 (-0.26%) during the day and 4249 (-0.19%) at night [13]. - **Short - Fiber**: PF2511 main contract closed at 6284 (-0.95%) during the day and 6288 (+0.06%) at night [14]. - **PR (Bottle - Chip)**: PR2511 main contract closed at 5762 (-0.93%) during the day and 5758 (-0.07%) at night [17]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: BZ2503 main contract closed at 5966 (-0.55%) during the day and 5954 (-0.2%) at night; EB2511 main contract closed at 6992 (-1.16%) during the day and 6971 (-0.3%) at night [19]. - **Propylene**: PL2601 main contract closed at 6388 (-0.56%) during the day and 6393 (+0.08%) at night [24]. - **PVC**: The domestic PVC powder market price increased slightly, with mainstream markets rising by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [26]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong decreased, while the price of 50% ion - membrane caustic soda remained stable [28]. - **Plastic PP**: The price of LLDPE in some regions decreased by 10 - 50 yuan/ton; the price of PP in some regions decreased or remained stable [30]. - **Log**: The spot price of logs remained stable, and the 11 - month contract oscillated downward, closing at 801.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 0.87% [31]. - **Offset - Printing Paper**: The market price of high - white offset - printing paper in Shandong remained stable, and the OP2601 contract in the futures market rose 8 yuan/ton at night [33]. - **Pulp**: The futures market declined slightly, and the prices of various types of pulp in the spot market were stable or had slight fluctuations [34][35]. - **Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber**: The RU main 01 contract rose 10 points (+0.06%); the NR main 11 contract rose 60 points (+0.49%); the BR main 11 contract rose 50 points (+0.44%) [37][38][40]. Related Information - **Crude Oil**: The central bank is expected to keep the LPR unchanged; some countries recognized the State of Palestine, causing an angry response from Israel; the number of US drilling rigs increased [1][2]. - **Asphalt**: Rain in Shandong affected demand, and contracts were being executed; in the Yangtze River Delta, demand was average, and some low - price resources were released; in South China, typhoons affected demand, but some social inventories had no pressure [4][5]. - **Fuel Oil**: China's fuel oil imports decreased in August, and some Russian refineries were affected by attacks [6][7][8]. - **PX & PTA**: The operating rates of PX, PTA, and polyester decreased slightly, and some PX and PTA plants had maintenance plans [10][11][12]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The overall operating rate of ethylene glycol in China increased slightly, and some plants had restart or maintenance plans [13][15]. - **Short - Fiber**: The sales of polyester yarn were average, and the operating rates of downstream industries remained stable [14][16][17]. - **PR (Bottle - Chip)**: The export prices of polyester bottle - chips decreased slightly, and the operating rate of bottle - chips decreased [17][18]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: The operating rates of petroleum benzene and its downstream industries changed, and some pure benzene and styrene plants had maintenance or restart plans [19][20][21]. - **Propylene**: The domestic propylene operating rate increased, and some plants restarted or were under maintenance [24][25]. - **PVC**: There was new production capacity pressure, and exports were expected to weaken [26][27]. - **Caustic Soda**: The purchase price of a large alumina plant in Shandong decreased, and the price of liquid chlorine in some regions increased [28][29]. - **Plastic PP**: The inventory of major producers increased, and there was new production capacity expected [30][31]. - **Log**: China's coniferous log imports decreased in August, and the funds of construction sites changed [32]. - **Offset - Printing Paper**: The production of double - sided offset paper increased, and the inventory of producers increased [33][34]. - **Pulp**: A special paper production line of a company was put into operation, and a pulp mill extended its maintenance time [37]. - **Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber**: Jilin Petrochemical trial - produced a new type of rubber [39][41]. Logical Analysis - **Crude Oil**: OPEC increased production in August and September, the peak demand season in the Middle East ended, and the supply pressure increased. In the short term, oil prices are expected to be weak [2]. - **Asphalt**: Oil prices are falling, production is increasing, and the supply - demand balance is becoming more relaxed, with a relatively high valuation [4][5][6]. - **Fuel Oil**: Russian refineries are gradually recovering, high - sulfur exports in the Middle East are increasing, and demand is weakening [8][9]. - **PX & PTA**: The macro - economic situation is weak, and the supply and demand of PX and PTA have decreased. The supply - demand contradiction of PTA will be alleviated later [12][13]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply has decreased and demand has increased, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [13][15]. - **Short - Fiber**: The plant operating rate has increased, downstream demand is weak, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate at a low level [14][16][17]. - **PR (Bottle - Chip)**: The market supply is abundant, demand is transitioning from peak to off - peak season, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate at a low level [17][18][19]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: The supply of pure benzene is expected to increase, downstream demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weak; the supply of styrene may increase, and there is inventory accumulation pressure [20][21][22]. - **Propylene**: The propane market is in the peak season, the supply of propylene is increasing, and downstream product profits are poor [24][25]. - **PVC**: There is new production capacity pressure, demand is weak, and exports are expected to decline [26][27]. - **Caustic Soda**: The pressure on the spot market in Shandong has been released, and the medium - term supply - demand situation is expected to improve [28][29]. - **Plastic PP**: The demand is in the peak season, but there is new production capacity expected, and the cost support is weak [30][31]. - **Log**: The supply and demand are both weak, with supply expected to contract later [32][33]. - **Offset - Printing Paper**: Supply is expected to increase slightly, demand is weak, and cost support is limited [33][34]. - **Pulp**: The macro - economic situation has improved, but high inventory and weak demand suppress the rebound space [34][35][37]. - **Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber**: The inventory situation of different types of rubber is different, and corresponding trading strategies are recommended [37][38][39]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The inventory of the BR contract has decreased, and short - positions are recommended to be held [40][41][42]. Trading Strategies - **Crude Oil**: Unilateral trading: oscillate weakly; arbitrage: gasoline and diesel cracking spreads are weak; options: observe [1][4]. - **Asphalt**: Unilateral trading: oscillate; arbitrage: the asphalt - crude oil spread oscillates weakly; options: sell out - of - the - money call options on BU2512 [4][6]. - **Fuel Oil**: Unilateral trading: oscillate weakly; arbitrage: observe; options: sell out - of - the - money call options on FU01 at high prices [6][10]. - **PX & PTA**: Unilateral trading: oscillate; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [10][13]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Unilateral trading: oscillate; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [13][15]. - **Short - Fiber**: Unilateral trading: oscillate; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [14][16][17]. - **PR (Bottle - Chip)**: Unilateral trading: oscillate; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [17][18][19]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: Unilateral trading: oscillate weakly; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [19][20][22]. - **Propylene**: Unilateral trading: oscillate and sort out; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [24][25][26]. - **PVC**: Unilateral trading: observe in the short term and short - sell on rebounds in the medium term; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [26][27][28]. - **Caustic Soda**: Unilateral trading: buy on dips; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [28][29][30]. - **Plastic PP**: Unilateral trading: oscillate weakly in the short term and short - sell on rebounds in the medium term; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [30][31]. - **Log**: Unilateral trading: observe mainly, and aggressive investors can consider a small - scale long - position layout; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [32][33]. - **Offset - Printing Paper**: Unilateral trading: short - sell the 01 contract near the lower limit of the spot market price; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [33][34]. - **Pulp**: Unilateral trading: try a small - scale long - position in the SP main 11 contract; arbitrage: observe and pay attention to the 11 - 1 reverse arbitrage; options: observe [34][35][37]. - **Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber**: Unilateral trading: hold short positions in the RU main 01 contract and take profits on short positions in the NR main 11 contract; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [37][38][39]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: Unilateral trading: hold short positions in the BR main 11 contract; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [40][41][42].

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The postponement of the maintenance of two PX units has narrowed the de - stocking range of PX in the fourth quarter, weakening the previous de - stocking support. Coupled with more PTA maintenance plans, PX prices have fallen and PTA processing fees have widened [1] - The recent oil price has been oscillating, and the Russia - Ukraine situation should be monitored. The PX load in China has gradually recovered, and the PX balance sheet in September has changed from de - stocking to a loose balance. However, PX is still in a low - inventory state [1] - The PTA load is rising from a low level. The short - term de - stocking fundamentals are okay, but there is a risk of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter due to new device commissioning expectations. The demand recovery is limited, and the polyester load increase is restricted [2] - The polyester start - up rate shows signs of recovery, but order connection is insufficient. It is expected that the polyester load will remain stable with a slight increase in September [2] - The short - term supply - demand situation of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber is better than that of the raw material end, and the processing margin has widened. The bottle - chip processing fee is expected to fluctuate slightly, and there is still large supply - demand pressure under the new device commissioning [3] - For the strategy, it is recommended to go long on the PF processing fee at low prices in cross - variety trading, and there is no recommendation for cross - period trading [4] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The report shows the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [9][10][13] Upstream Profit and Spread - The report presents PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [16][19] International Spread and Import - Export Profit - The report includes toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [24][26] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - The report shows the PTA load in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the PX load in China and Asia [27][30][34] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report presents the weekly social inventory of PTA, monthly social inventory of PX, total PTA warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [36][39][45] Downstream Polyester Load - The report shows the production and sales of filament and short - fiber, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, factory inventory days of various filaments, and the start - up rates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms, texturing machines, and printing and dyeing machines, as well as the profits of filament FDY and POY [49][51][62] PF Detailed Data - The report presents the polyester staple fiber load, factory equity inventory days of polyester staple fiber, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, original - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn start - up rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn start - up rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, and the available inventory days in pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn factories [71][73][83] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - The report shows the polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, price difference between East China water bottle chips and recycled 3A - grade white bottle chips, and bottle - chip inter - month spreads [91][93][101]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Views - The PTA maintenance plans have increased under low processing fees, such as Hengli and Dushan Energy planning to conduct maintenance in October and November respectively. The PTA futures closed up in a volatile manner on Wednesday, the negotiation atmosphere in the spot market was average, and individual mainstream suppliers reduced the contract supply in October, leading to a slight strengthening of the spot basis [1]. - In terms of the cost side, the oil price has been fluctuating recently, and attention should be paid to the Russia-Ukraine situation. The oil price has rebounded since last Friday. On the one hand, the Russia-Ukraine negotiations have been suspended again. On the other hand, the US military carried out a military operation in the offshore area of Venezuela, which raised concerns about Venezuela's national security. The PXN was 229 US dollars/ton (a month-on-month change of +1.63 US dollars/ton) the day before last. The negotiation on the floating price of PX was deadlocked, and the PXN weakened to 230 US dollars/ton and then fluctuated. Recently, the PX load in China has gradually recovered. With the increase in PTA maintenance, the PX balance sheet in September has changed from destocking to a loose balance, but the overall PX inventory is still at a low level. As the PTA devices resume operation, the PX will turn to destocking again. Considering the rigid demand for PX from new PTA devices, there is support below the PXN. Continued attention should be paid to window negotiations and warehouse receipt situations [2]. - In terms of TA, the spot basis of the TA main contract was -77 yuan/ton (a month-on-month change of +3 yuan/ton), the PTA spot processing fee was 130 yuan/ton (a month-on-month change of -1 yuan/ton), and the processing fee on the main contract's disk was 332 yuan/ton (a month-on-month change of +6 yuan/ton). The PTA load is increasing from a low level, and the near-term destocking fundamentals are acceptable. However, there is a pressure of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter due to the expected commissioning of new devices. Recently, mainstream suppliers have been selling goods, and the market's spot supply is relatively abundant. At the same time, the recovery of the demand side is limited, and the order connection is insufficient under high inventory. The increase in polyester load is limited [2]. - In terms of demand, the polyester operating rate was 91.6% (a month-on-month increase of 0.3%). The current demand shows signs of recovery, but the order connection is insufficient, mainly with local scattered orders. The high inventory of grey fabrics is being depleted slowly. The market's expectation for the subsequent demand level is neutral to pessimistic. Most terminal raw material purchases maintain a cautious wait-and-see attitude, digesting previous stocks while following up with rigid demand. In terms of polyester load, the inventory of filament is not high but gradually accumulating. It is expected that the load of filament and staple fiber will continue to stabilize and slightly rebound in September. The load of bottle chips is expected to increase slightly, but the increase may be limited. It is expected that the polyester load will stabilize and slightly rebound in September, with the average monthly load likely to be below 91.5% [3]. - In terms of PF, the spot production profit was 175 yuan/ton (a month-on-month change of -6 yuan/ton). Direct-spun polyester staple fiber fluctuated and consolidated following the raw materials, and the load continued to increase slightly. As the price difference between high and low prices in the market narrowed, factory sales improved, inventory decreased, the demand for staple fiber at a low price was acceptable, the factory inventory was low, and currently, the inventory held by traders was small. In the short term, the supply-demand situation of direct-spun polyester staple fiber was better than that of the raw material side. Due to the relatively weak performance of raw materials, the processing margin of direct-spun polyester staple fiber expanded to over 1000 [3]. - In terms of PR, the spot processing fee of bottle chips was 454 yuan/ton (a month-on-month change of -11 yuan/ton). The fundamentals of bottle chips have not changed much. The current order receipt and shipment performance of bottle chips are average. It is reported that the industry's overall target of 20% production reduction and suspension in September remains unchanged. It is expected that the subsequent increase in bottle chip load will be limited, the overall inventory pressure of factories has decreased, and the processing fee of polyester bottle chips is expected to maintain small fluctuations. Under the pressure of the commissioning of the new Fuhai device in the future, the supply-demand pressure is still relatively large, and production reduction is needed for adjustment. It is expected that the spot processing fee of bottle chips will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the fluctuation of raw material prices [4]. - Strategy: For single-sided trading, the ratings for PX/PTA/PF/PR are neutral. For PX, since August, PX devices have been restarted intensively. With the increase in PTA maintenance, the fundamentals have weakened month-on-month, and the PXN has loosened. However, with low inventory and the restart of PTA, the PX will turn to destocking again, and there is support below the PXN. For TA, the PTA load is increasing from a low level, and the near-term destocking fundamentals are acceptable. However, there is a pressure of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter due to the expected commissioning of new devices. Recently, mainstream suppliers have been selling goods, and the market's spot supply is relatively abundant. At the same time, the recovery of the demand side is limited, and the order connection is insufficient under high inventory. The increase in polyester load is limited. For PF, the demand for PF has improved slightly, the inventory has started to decrease, the demand at a low price is acceptable, and currently, the inventory held by traders is small. In the short term, the supply-demand situation of direct-spun polyester staple fiber is better than that of the raw material side, but its upward momentum is not strong. For PR, several major manufacturers have extended their maintenance plans. It is expected that the spot processing fee of bottle chips will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the fluctuation of raw material prices. For cross-variety trading, go long on the PF processing fee at low prices: PF2511 - 0.855PTA2601 - 0.332MEG2601. There is no strategy for cross-period trading [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - Figures show the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright white basis [10][11][13] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures display PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [19][22] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures present the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [27][29] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the PTA load in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the PX load in China and Asia [30][33][37] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures present the weekly social inventory of PTA, monthly social inventory of PX, total PTA warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [38][41][42] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures show the production and sales of filament and short - fiber, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle chip load, filament factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing machine start - up rate, and filament profit [50][52][63] PF Detailed Data - Figures display the polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, original - recycled price difference, pure polyester yarn start - up rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn start - up rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, pure polyester yarn factory inventory available days, and polyester - cotton yarn factory inventory available days [72][76][83] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures show the polyester bottle chip load, bottle chip factory bottle chip inventory days, bottle chip spot processing fee, bottle chip export processing fee, bottle chip export profit, East China water bottle chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle chip price difference, bottle chip next - month spread, and bottle chip next - next - month spread [93][97][100]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to weak demand and inventory pressure, ethylene glycol is likely to continue its downward trend. The price center may further test the support level of the next range, and if port destocking continues to face obstacles and demand does not improve, the downward pressure may increase [1][2] - Supply has a slight decline, but demand remains sluggish, and inventory pressure is increasing, especially the rapid accumulation of port inventory, which may suppress prices. Although the strengthening basis shows that the spot is relatively resistant to decline, the weakness of the futures main contract and the shrinking trading volume indicate insufficient market confidence. Therefore, the price may maintain a low - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to changes in the cost side and demand recovery [22][23] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Price and Basis**: The price of the ethylene glycol main futures contract dropped slightly by 3 yuan to 4,319 yuan/ton, showing a four - day oscillating decline. The East China spot price also fell by 5 yuan to 4,435 yuan/ton, and the basis widened by 3 yuan to 121 yuan/ton, indicating a premium structure of the spot relative to the futures. The far - month spread fluctuated significantly, with the 1 - 5 spread widening to - 37 yuan and the 5 - 9 spread changing from premium to discount of 12 yuan, suggesting a weak market expectation for medium - term supply and demand [1] - **Position and Trading Volume**: The trading volume of the main contract decreased significantly by 77,639 lots to 106,908 lots (a decline of 42%), and the position decreased slightly by 190 lots, reflecting a decrease in market trading activity and an increase in the wait - and - see sentiment of funds [1] - **Supply Side**: The total ethylene glycol operating rate dropped slightly by 0.14 percentage points to 71.24%. Among them, the oil - based operating rate decreased by 0.24% month - on - month, while the coal - based and methanol - based plant operating rates remained stable. Despite the continuous loss of coal - based production at - 338 yuan/ton, the willingness to overhaul did not increase significantly, and the overall supply remained at a high level [1] - **Demand Side**: The load rate of polyester factories remained stable at 89.42%, and the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained at a low level of 63.43% for many consecutive days. Terminal orders showed no improvement, and the rigid demand support of the polyester segment for ethylene glycol was limited [1] 2. Inventory and Related Analysis - **Inventory**: The inventory at the East China main port increased to 48.57 tons (a week - on - week increase of 13.7%), and the inventory in Zhangjiagang soared by 40.6% to 18 tons, reaching a recent high. Although the arrival volume decreased by 6.7 tons to 10.17 tons, the port inventory accumulation pressure remained unresolved [2] - **Cost - Supply and Demand Relationship**: The coal - based production continued to incur losses, but the plants did not significantly reduce production. The oil - based and methanol - based operating rates remained stable, and the overall supply was loose. The rigid demand support of polyester was insufficient, the terminal weaving operating rate remained low, and the inventory climbed to a new high this year, suppressing market confidence [2] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - On September 10, the East China US dollar market negotiation remained stable, with near - month cargoes negotiated in the range of 520 - 523 US dollars/ton. The Shaanxi ethylene glycol market spot price remained stable, with the market average price around 3,990 yuan/ton for self - pick - up. The mainstream market was stable, and downstream players purchased as needed. The South China market spot was weakly stable, with the market negotiation atmosphere being cold, and the current price around 4,470 yuan/ton for delivery [5] - On September 10, market concerns about the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East supported the rise in oil prices. However, the commissioning of new ethylene glycol plants has been further implemented, and the spot basis in the market has narrowly shrunk. The current negotiation reference price in East China is around 4,437 yuan/ton [5] 4. Industry Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, ethylene glycol production profit, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rate, downstream polyester plant operating rate, ethylene glycol East China main port inventory statistics (weekly), and ethylene glycol industry total inventory [6][8][10]

Report Summary 1. Market Overview - As of September 11th, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. Coking coal, industrial silicon, and red dates rose over 2%, while polysilicon, coke, pulp, apples, lithium carbonate, and soda ash rose over 1%. The container shipping index (European line) dropped over 5%, and 20 - rubber and iron ore fell nearly 1% [6]. - Stock index futures generally rose, with the CSI 300 futures (IF) up 2.64%, the SSE 50 futures (IH) up 1.56%, the CSI 500 futures (IC) up 3.44%, and the CSI 1000 futures (IM) up 2.94%. Treasury bond futures also had mixed results, with the 2 - year (TS) up 0.06%, the 5 - year (TF) up 0.14%, the 10 - year (T) up 0.07%, and the 30 - year (TL) down 0.11% [6][7]. - In terms of capital flow, as of 15:30 on September 11th, the CSI 300 2509, CSI 500 2509, and SSE 50 2509 had capital inflows of 1.584 billion, 1.533 billion, and 0.68 billion respectively. Meanwhile, the Shanghai gold 2510, CSI 1000 2509, and Shanghai silver 2510 had outflows of 1.252 billion, 0.605 billion, and 0.376 billion respectively [7]. 2. Core Views Copper - The US August PPI was lower than expected. China's copper ore imports increased by 7.4% year - on - year in August. Refining fees are falling, and 5 smelters plan to have maintenance in September, which may lead to a decline in domestic electrolytic copper production. Imported copper will affect the domestic market. Demand is weak, and the market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [9]. Crude Oil - The seasonal travel peak is over, and US oil inventories are increasing. OPEC + will adjust production in October, which may increase pressure in Q4. Saudi Aramco cut prices. The market should watch the progress of the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire negotiation and India's oil purchases. It is recommended to short at high prices in the medium - to - long - term and close short positions in the short - term [10][11]. Asphalt - Supply is decreasing, and demand is also weak due to factors like weather and capital. OPEC +'s planned production increase will weaken cost support. It is recommended to close short positions and expect a sideways movement [12][13]. PP - Downstream开工率 is rising, and new capacity has been put into operation. With the improvement of the weather, the downstream is entering the peak season. The market is expected to be volatile with limited downside [14]. Plastic - The开工率 is stable, and downstream demand, especially in the agricultural film sector, is increasing. New capacity has been added. The market is expected to be volatile with limited downside [15][16]. PVC - Supply is increasing, and downstream demand is still weak. Exports are expected to decline. Inventory is high, and the real estate market is still adjusting. The market is expected to decline with volatility [17]. Urea - The market is weak with high inventory and low demand. However, the price is at a low level, and there may be a technical rebound [18][19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for PX/PTA/PF/PR is neutral [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cost - side factors like geopolitical tensions and demand - side factors are driving up oil prices, but macro - level financial market shocks cause wide - range oil price fluctuations. Naphtha supply is expected to shrink, and demand is set to increase, leading to an improvement in its economic efficiency. The downstream olefin industry is approaching its peak season, with a guaranteed bottom - line for profits [1] - PX load is expected to rise. Although the PX fundamentals have weakened, it remains in a low - inventory state, and PXN has support at the bottom [1] - PTA's concentrated maintenance has improved supply - demand, but the actual maintenance volume of the Hengli Huizhou 500 - million - ton PTA plant is less than expected, narrowing the de - stocking range in September. The demand recovery is limited, and the polyester load increase in September may fall short of expectations [2] - The polyester start - up rate shows signs of recovery, but this week's order connection is insufficient. The short - term polyester load is expected to continue to rise steadily [2] - PF's supply - demand situation has improved, with inventory starting to decline, but there is strong wait - and - see sentiment and it is suppressed by warehouse receipts [2][4] - The fundamentals of PR have changed little. The spot processing fee is expected to fluctuate slightly, and the load increase is expected to be limited [3][4] 3. Summaries According to the Directory Price and Basis - TA main - contract spot basis is - 51 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of - 2 yuan/ton), PTA spot processing fee is 161 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of - 9 yuan/ton), and the main - contract on - screen processing fee is 347 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of - 2 yuan/ton) [2] Upstream Profits and Spreads - PXN is 246 dollars/ton (a month - on - month change of - 6.25 dollars/ton) [1] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - No specific data or analysis provided in the summary part Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - After the restart of Idemitsu's maintenance plant in early September and the subsequent restart of Fuhai Chuang, the domestic and foreign PX loads are expected to continue to rise. The PX load in China has gradually recovered [1] - The concentrated maintenance of PTA has improved supply - demand, but the actual maintenance volume of the Hengli Huizhou 500 - million - ton PTA plant is less than expected [2] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - No specific data or analysis provided in the summary part Downstream Polyester Load - The polyester start - up rate is 90.3% (a month - on - month increase of 0.3%). The short - term load is expected to continue to rise steadily, but this week's order connection is insufficient, and the weaving and texturing load has declined [2] PF Detailed Data - The spot production profit of PF is 117 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 8 yuan/ton). The load of direct - spinning polyester staple fibers has increased, and inventory is starting to decline [2] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - The spot processing fee of PR is 408 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of + 13 yuan/ton). The industry is expected to maintain a 20% production reduction target in September, and the load increase is expected to be limited [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - **PTA**: TA unexpected maintenance increases, polyester开工 continues to rise and inventory is relatively healthy, so the load is expected to be maintained. The supply of raw material PX will gradually return, and the near - term supply - demand pattern of TA is expected to continue to improve. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of expanding processing fees at low prices and the restart progress of Hengli Huizhou [3]. - **MEG**: In the short term, due to the low arrival volume, the EG port inventory is expected to continue to decline. The pattern is good and the benefits are not low. In the long - term, there is an expectation of inventory accumulation with the return of maintenance and the commissioning of new plants, but the valuation is greatly affected by the subsequent evolution of the cost side, and it is expected to fluctuate widely. Attention should be paid to the restart progress of Satellite and Xinrun [4]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: After the accumulation of finished product inventory at the polyester yarn end, the speed of increasing load may slow down. With the good spot benefits of staple fiber, the high - level operation of the start - up rate is expected, and the processing fees are expected to fluctuate [4]. - **Natural Rubber & 20 - number Rubber**: The national explicit inventory is stable and the absolute level is not high. The price of Thai cup rubber is stable, and rainfall affects rubber tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [4]. - **Styrene**: No clear overall view is given in the data, mainly presenting price changes of related products. 3. Summaries by Product PTA - **Price and Index Changes**: From August 27 to September 2, the price of PTA internal - market spot decreased from 4835 to 4725, the PTA processing difference decreased from 264.0 to 245.0, and the TA basis decreased from - 15 to - 45 [3]. - **Device Changes**: Taihua's 1.5 - million - ton device restarted, and a 1.2 - million - ton device is planned for maintenance [3]. - **Market Situation**: After the near - term TA maintenance is implemented, the start - up rate decreases month - on - month, the polyester load remains basically stable, the inventory is significantly reduced, the basis weakens month - on - month, and the spot processing fee weakens [3]. MEG - **Price and Index Changes**: From August 27 to September 2, the MEG external - market price decreased from 535 to 524, the MEG coal - based profit decreased from 474 to 405, and the MEG internal - market cash flow (ethylene) remained at - 609 [4]. - **Device Changes**: Xinjiang Tianying's 150,000 - ton device restarted, and Shaanxi Weihua's 300,000 - ton device was under maintenance [4]. - **Market Situation**: The near - term domestic oil - based load increases, the coal - based start - up rate slightly decreases, the overall load increases, the overseas unexpected maintenance increases, the port inventory continues to decline, the downstream stocking level increases, the basis strengthens month - on - month, and the benefit ratio remains stable [4]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Index Changes**: From August 27 to September 2, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber decreased from 6680 to 6590, and the short - fiber profit increased from 4 to 41 [4]. - **Device Changes**: Xiamen Xinhongxiang's low - melting - point device restarted, and the start - up rate slightly increased to 92.1% [4]. - **Market Situation**: The start - up rate of the polyester yarn end remains stable, the raw material stocking decreases, the finished product inventory starts to accumulate, and the benefits are weak [4]. Natural Rubber & 20 - number Rubber - **Price and Index Changes**: From August 27 to September 2, the price of US - dollar Thai standard spot increased from 1810 to 1830, and the RU main contract price increased from 15760 to 15870 [4]. - **Market Situation**: The national explicit inventory is stable, the price of Thai cup rubber is stable, and rainfall affects rubber tapping [4]. Styrene - **Price and Index Changes**: From August 27 to September 2, the price of ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) remained at 840, the price of pure benzene (CFR China) decreased from 743 to 733, and the price of styrene (CFR China) decreased from 883 to 858 [7]. - **Profit Changes**: The domestic profit of styrene remained at - 377, the domestic profit of EPS increased from 305 to 375, and the domestic profit of PS increased from - 25 to - 5 [7].