1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Overall, the report presents a cautious and bearish outlook on the energy and chemical industries, with some potential for short - term rebounds [1][3][6] 2. Report's Core View - The report analyzes various energy and chemical products, including crude oil, LPG, L, PP, PVC, PTA, MEG, methanol, urea, LNG, asphalt, glass, and soda ash. It provides core views on each product, such as short - term rebounds or long - term bearish trends, based on factors like supply - demand dynamics, geopolitical events, and cost changes [1][3][6] 3. Summary by Product Crude Oil - Core View: Short - term rebound due to rising South American geopolitical uncertainty, but long - term bearish due to oversupply in the off - season [1][9] - Market Performance: WTI, Brent, and SC rebounded overnight, with WTI rising 2.64%, Brent rising 2.55%, and SC rising 1.22% [7][8] - Fundamental Analysis: South American geopolitical uncertainty increased as the US seized Venezuelan oil tankers. Demand is expected to increase in 2025 and 2026, but US inventories showed mixed changes in the week ending December 12 [9][10] - Strategy: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [435 - 445] for SC [11] LPG - Core View: Short - term rebound supported by the cost side, but long - term bearish [1][12] - Market Performance: On December 22, the PG main contract closed at 4100 yuan/ton, down 0.12% [14] - Fundamental Analysis: Supply increased as refinery operations rose, and downstream chemical demand was resilient. Inventories decreased both at ports and in factories [15] - Strategy: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [4050 - 4150] for PG [16] L - Core View: The market returned to a weak state after the commissioning of a new device [17] - Market Performance: L05 closed at 6320 yuan/ton, down 2.4% [18] - Fundamental Analysis: The commissioning of a 500,000 - ton new device by BASF increased supply pressure. The off - season for agricultural films led to decreased demand, and inventory faced de - stocking pressure [20] - Strategy: Partially close short positions in the short term. Wait for a rebound to go short in the long term. Hold short positions on the LP05 spread. Focus on the range of [6250 - 6400] for L [20] PP - Core View: High inventory constrained the rebound space, and the market oscillated at a low level [21] - Market Performance: PP05 closed at 6213 yuan/ton, down 1.1% [22] - Fundamental Analysis: Total commercial inventory remained at a high level. Demand entered the off - season in December, and the de - stocking pressure was high [24] - Strategy: Reduce short positions. Wait for a rebound to go short in the long term. Short the MTO05 spread. Focus on the range of [6150 - 6300] for PP [24] PVC - Core View: The market rebounded from the bottom supported by low valuation [25] - Market Performance: V05 closed at 4652 yuan/ton, down 1.2% [26] - Fundamental Analysis: Although the upper - middle stream inventory was high and supply reduction was insufficient, many domestic devices had cash - flow losses, and some marginal devices started to reduce loads [28] - Strategy: Go long in the short term. Wait for continuous inventory de - stocking to go long on dips in the long term. Industrial customers should hedge at high prices. Focus on the range of [4600 - 4800] for V [28] PTA - Core View: The supply - demand pattern was good, and consider buying on dips [29] - Market Performance: TA05 closed at 4674 yuan/ton, down 48 [29] - Fundamental Analysis: Supply decreased as many domestic devices were under planned maintenance, and overseas devices were partially increased in load. Downstream demand was good but expected to weaken. There was a risk of inventory accumulation in January [30] - Strategy: Consider buying TA05 on dips. Focus on the range of [4980 - 5100] for TA [31] MEG - Core View: Supply - demand weakened, and there was an expectation of inventory accumulation. Consider shorting on rebounds [32] - Market Performance: EG05 closed at 3619 yuan/ton, down 56 [32] - Fundamental Analysis: Domestic device loads increased, and overseas devices were expected to reduce loads. Downstream demand was good but expected to weaken, and port inventories were rising [33] - Strategy: Consider shorting EG05 on rebounds. Focus on the range of [3680 - 3770] for EG05 [34] Methanol - Core View: Port inventory decreased, but demand was under pressure. Be cautious about chasing long positions [35] - Market Performance: Not specifically mentioned in a prominent way [37] - Fundamental Analysis: Spot prices in Taicang weakened slightly, and the negative basis strengthened. Supply pressure remained as the arrival volume in December was estimated to be about 1.3 million tons, and demand weakened slightly [37] - Strategy: Do not chase long positions. Consider buying methanol 05 on dips [39] Urea - Core View: Supply - side pressure was expected to increase, and the market oscillated weakly [40] - Market Performance: URO5 closed at 1697 yuan/ton [40] - Fundamental Analysis: Gas - based urea device operations decreased significantly, but overall load was still high. Demand was expected to weaken, and inventory was at a relatively high level [41][42] - Strategy: The market is expected to oscillate weakly. Consider buying UR05 on dips. Focus on the range of [1670 - 1690] for UR05 [43] LNG - Core View: Supply was sufficient, and gas prices were under downward pressure [44] - Market Performance: On December 19, the NG main contract closed at 3.984 dollars/million British thermal units, up 1.94% [46] - Fundamental Analysis: Demand support decreased due to mild weather in the US, and supply was relatively abundant [47] - Strategy: Although there is demand support in the consumption season, gas prices are under downward pressure due to sufficient supply. Focus on the range of [3.895 - 4.260] for NG [47] Asphalt - Core View: South American geopolitical uncertainty vs. weak supply - demand, the market oscillated within a range [48] - Market Performance: The main contract (2602) closed at 2909 yuan/ton, down 1.46% [48] - Fundamental Analysis: Supply was relatively sufficient, and demand entered the off - season. The cracking spread and BU - FU spread were returning to normal but still had room for compression [50] - Strategy: Partially close short positions due to South American geopolitical uncertainty. Focus on the range of [2950 - 3050] for BU [51] Glass - Core View: Factory inventory ended a three - week decline, and the market oscillated at a low level [52] - Market Performance: FG05 closed at 1041 yuan/ton, down 2.0% [52] - Fundamental Analysis: High inventory constrained the rebound space. The melting volume remained stable, and demand was weak. Process profits turned negative [54] - Strategy: Partially close short positions in the short term. Wait for a rebound to go short in the long term. Focus on the range of [1000 - 1050] for FG [54] Soda Ash - Core View: Warehouse receipts increased, and the market oscillated weakly [55] - Market Performance: SA05 closed at 1176 yuan/ton, down 1.4% [56] - Fundamental Analysis: Warehouse receipts continued to increase, and although short - term supply pressure was relieved by maintenance, long - term supply was expected to be loose due to the planned commissioning of a new device. Demand support was insufficient [58]

化工日报 | 2025-12-19 EG负荷再度回升至7成以上 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价3767元/吨（较前一交易日变动+9元/吨，幅度+0.24%），EG华东市场现货价 3654元/吨（较前一交易日变动-14元/吨，幅度-0.38%），EG华东现货基差-22元/吨（环比+3元/吨）。 生产利润方面：据隆众数据，乙烯制EG生产毛利为-91美元/吨（环比+0美元/吨），煤基合成气制EG生产毛利为-991 元/吨（环比+59元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为84.4万吨（环比+2.5万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为61.7万吨（环比-13.8万吨）。据CCF数据，上周华东主港计划到港总数14万吨，副 港到港量2.2万吨；本周华东主港计划到港总数11.8万吨，副港到港量3万吨，整体中性略偏高，预计主港将平衡略 累。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，随着检修兑现，国内乙二醇负荷高位下降，近端供应压力有所缓解，但1月又将恢 复高供应，后续关注价格下降后乙二醇装置新增检修情况；海外供应方面，本周乙二醇外轮到货量回归中性，港 口 ...

资料显示，山东宝莫生物化工股份有限公司位于山东省东营市东营区西四路624号，成立日期1996年5月 3日，上市日期2010年9月15日，公司主营业务涉及聚丙烯酰胺、表面活性剂及相关化学品研发、生产、 销售及技术服务以及光伏发电等业务。主营业务收入构成为：油田用化学品88.91%，环保水处理 6.80%，非油田用化学品3.99%，其他(补充)0.30%。 从宝莫股份十大流通股东角度 数据显示，长城基金旗下1只基金位居宝莫股份十大流通股东。长城安心回报混合A（200007）三季度 新进十大流通股东，持有股数262.52万股，占流通股的比例为0.43%。根据测算，今日浮盈赚取约78.76 万元。 12月18日，宝莫股份涨5.15%，截至发稿，报6.12元/股，成交9351.95万元，换手率2.55%，总市值37.45 亿元。 截至发稿，韩林累计任职时间9年231天，现任基金资产总规模15.36亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报 160.8%， 任职期间最差基金回报-28.93%。 唐然累计任职时间3年95天，现任基金资产总规模9.32亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报6.98%， 任职期间 最差基金回报-2.29%。 风险提示：市 ...

【EGPF周度策略20251214】成本持续下跌叠加远月投产预期, 乙二醇价格持续下行 日期: 2025-12-14 ZHESHANG FUTURE 【EGPF周度策略20251214】成本持续下跌叠加远月投产预期，乙二醇价格持续下行 核心观点 2025-12-14 ● 合约: eq2605 ® 观点: MEG 下跌空间有限,在[3400]价位存在支撑 ® 逻辑： 在成本（油煤）隔弱、自身估值偏高，26年末投产背景下，EGO1价格持续承压，从现实来看，11-12月内累申幅或较划显。且远先仍有新装置投产预期压制，关注宏观层面以及装置变动, 基本面中长周朗看，26-21年乙三醇或进入到新一般的扩散用时，26年新股产约215万吨，2027年之后仍有不少大套装置计划股广，加古雷、中科，壳体等的工期项目，加回趣。中昆，天业之类的新闻的恐色成气氛必,二酶取 目，因此后期乙二醇价格更多呈现底部整理状态。 产业链操作建议 场外报价 入场价格 相关场外产品 参与角色 行为9向 情得向 贵略推荐 买卖 套保比例(%) 现货的口 套保衍生命 | 炼厂 | 库存管理 | 库存偏高，担心乙二醇下跌 | के | 可针对未卖出MEG库存 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PTA: Core view, month - spread, cost, device changes, downstream demand, and processing profit are rated neutral; spot and supply - demand balance are rated cautiously bullish [5] - PX: Core view, month - spread, spot, import, and downstream demand, and supply - demand balance are rated neutral; device changes and processing profit are rated cautiously bearish [6] - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Core view and device changes, and import, and downstream demand are rated neutral; month - spread and spot, and supply - demand balance are rated cautiously bearish; processing profit is rated cautiously bullish [7] 2. Core Views - PTA: The near - end is tight, short - term supply - demand changes little, expected to destock in December. PXN at a high level reflects strong expectations, and investors should buy on dips [5][70] - PX: The overall pattern is expected to be good. High PXN valuation reflects expectations, short - term is expected to fluctuate, and investors should buy on dips [6][95] - Ethylene Glycol: There is an increase in maintenance on the margin, the balance has improved, but there is still inventory accumulation pressure. The valuation is not high, and the downside space is expected to be limited. The sustainability of the seasonal inventory - accumulation - driven rise needs to be observed, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [7][138] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Terminal and Polyester - Terminal demand is seasonally weakening. The operating rates of texturing, weaving, and dyeing have slightly decreased to 85%, 69%, and 74% respectively. New orders are weakening, and finished - product inventory is rising [9] - As of December 5, polyester load is around 91.8%, cash flow is at a low level, and average inventory is around 16 days. Polyester inventory pressure is not high and is slightly rising. Due to the late Spring Festival in 2026, polyester operating rate remains high, and overall cash flow performance is average [21] - Polyester overall profitability is average. The profits of filament POY and FDY are compressed, while staple fiber profitability is acceptable [22] - As of December 5, POY, DTY, FDY, and staple fiber inventories are 16.2, 26.8, 16.5, and 8.2 days respectively [32] - It is estimated that the polyester load in November and December will be 91% and 90% respectively. In the future, due to low inventory pressure and the late Spring Festival in 2026, the loads of filament and staple fiber are expected to remain high [48] 3.2 PTA - PTA devices are under planned maintenance, with a significant amount of maintenance. YS Ningbo, Dahua, Hainan, Ineos, Nengtou, and Dushan 1 are under maintenance [51] - As of December 5, PTA social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) is 216.9 tons, slightly decreasing. Inventory pressure before the end of the year is not high [55] - PTA balance table shows little change, with the near - end tight. Short - term supply - demand and expectations are good, and the valuation has reacted. Investors should buy on dips [70] - The net short positions of foreign - controlled futures company seats have decreased [71] 3.3 PX - U.S. gasoline inventory has rebounded from the bottom, and gasoline cracking has declined from a high level [81] - Blending for gasoline is average, and short - process profitability in Asia has slightly improved [83] - The aromatics price spread between the U.S. and Asia has slightly narrowed. The toluene price spread between the U.S. and Asia is 212 yuan, and the xylene price spread is 150 dollars. Xylene tariffs have been exempted [88] - Domestic PX load remains stable at 88.2%. Wushi Petrochemical has slightly increased its load, Zhejiang Petrochemical has slightly decreased its load, Sinochem Quanzhou is under maintenance, and Fujia plans to restart a line at the end of the month. Asian load is 78.6%, and GS is reducing its load with a subsequent disproportionation shutdown plan [90] - The PX balance shows a loose supply - demand balance. PXN is around 280 dollars, and the short - term is expected to fluctuate. Investors should buy on dips [95] - The PX outer - inner price spread has stabilized, the PX 1 - 5 month - spread remains stable, and TA05 processing fee has slightly rebounded from the bottom [96] - Industrial chain profits have slightly recovered from a low level. Valuation is mainly concentrated in PXN, which has recently risen to a high level, while PTA processing fee remains low. There is an opportunity to expand PTA processing fee after the demand off - season [105] 3.4 Ethylene Glycol - As of December 5, the total MEG load is 72.8%, and the coal - based load is 72%. Oil - based process maintenance has increased, and coal - based units have restarted after maintenance [107] - Domestic MEG load is 72.95%, and syngas - based load is 72.5%. Sanjiang plans to reduce its load, Maoming Petrochemical has shut down, Sinochem Quanzhou is shut down, CNOOC Shell Phase 2 and Fude plan to conduct maintenance on the 8th, and Shenghong's 100 - ton unit will be shut down until Q2 2026. Coal - chemical maintenance units are restarting one after another [114] - MEG profits are compressed. Oil - based units remain in losses, and coal - based losses have increased. There is an increase in oil - based unit maintenance on the margin [115] - Overseas device maintenance and load reduction have increased. 11 - 12 - month imports are estimated to be 650,000 tons each month, and imports may decline in January - February [125] - As of December 8, the MEG port inventory in the East China main port area is about 819,000 tons, an increase of 66,000 tons from last week. The actual arrival from December 1 - 7 is 163,000 tons, and the expected arrival from December 8 - 14 is 155,000 tons. Port inventory is expected to rise. Polyester factories' MEG raw material inventory days are 13.8 days [133] - There is an increase in maintenance on the margin, the balance has improved, but there is still inventory accumulation pressure. The valuation is not high, and the short - term is expected to fluctuate at a low level [138]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 每日核心期货品种分析 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 11 日 商品表现 数据来源:Wind、冠通研究咨询部 期市综述 截止 12 月 11 日收盘，国内期货主力合约涨跌不一，碳酸锂、沪银 ...

芳烃橡胶早报 P T A 日期 原油 石脑油日 本 PX CFR 台湾 PTA内盘现 货 POY 1 50D/4 8F 石脑油裂 解价差 PX加工差 PTA加 工差 聚酯毛利 PTA平衡 负荷 PTA负 荷 仓单+有 效预报 TA基差 产销 2025/1 2/04 63.3 560 845 4690 6450 96.05 285.0 144 10 78.9 73.7 130935 -35 0.35 2025/1 2/05 63.8 564 838 4670 6445 96.21 274.0 162 43 79.0 73.7 131121 -33 0.45 2025/1 2/08 62.5 572 841 4650 6415 113.45 269.0 125 50 79.0 73.7 130653 -32 0.60 2025/1 2/09 61.9 563 832 4630 6415 108.98 269.0 159 82 79.0 73.7 139789 -28 0.65 2025/1 2/10 62.2 560 832 4605 6345 108.98 272.0 132 27 79.0 73.7 1438 ...

化工日报 | 2025-12-09 EG主港延续累库，本周到港计划仍多 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价3701元/吨（较前一交易日变动-22元/吨，幅度-0.59%），EG华东市场现货价 3690元/吨（较前一交易日变动-50元/吨，幅度-1.34%），EG华东现货基差-9元/吨（环比+6元/吨）。 生产利润方面：据隆众数据，乙烯制EG生产毛利为-85美元/吨（环比-12美元/吨），煤基合成气制EG生产毛利为-1108 元/吨（环比-52元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为81.9万吨（环比+6.6万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为71.9万吨（环比+1.1万吨）。据CCF数据，上周华东主港计划到港总数16.3万吨，副 港到港量5.1万吨；本周华东主港计划到港总数15.5万吨，副港到港量2万吨，整体偏高，预计主港将继续累库。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，随着检修兑现，国内乙二醇负荷高位下降，近端供应压力有所缓解，但1月又将恢 复高供应，后续关注价格下降后乙二醇装置新增检修情况；海外供应方面，中东货源供应高位，月内远洋货到 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 每日核心期货品种分析 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 05 日 商品表现 数据来源:Wind、冠通研究咨询部 期市综述 截止 12 月 05 日收盘，国内期货主力合约跌多涨少。集运欧线涨超 ...

中国丙烯酸丁酯产业在"十四五"期间实现了跨越式发展。截至2025年，国内总产能突破400万吨/年，近 五年复合增长率高达7.24%，占据全球总产能的近半壁江山，成为全球丙烯酸酯供应的核心力量。产能 激增推动进口依存度持续下降，但也带来了供应过剩的压力，出口成为行业消化产能的关键途径。 2021-2025年，中国丙烯酸丁酯出口量始终保持高位，2025年预计出口25-26万吨，尽管较2024年减少， 但出口仍是平衡国内市场的重要手段。 巴西市场在我国丙烯酸丁酯出口布局中占据特殊地位，长期位列出口目的地前10名。是拉美地区的重要 增长点。然而，此次反倾销调查的启动，将直接冲击这一市场格局。巴西作为重要的新兴市场，其本土 化工企业感受到了直接竞争压力。从聚醚多元醇、钛白粉到PVC树脂，再到如今的丙烯酸及其下游丁 酯，巴西针对中国化工品的反倾销清单不断拉长，显示出其保护本土制造业、平衡贸易的坚定姿态。 本次调查选取的倾销调查期恰逢中国产能集中释放、出口竞争尤为激烈的阶段。对国内生产企业而言， 此次调查的影响已初步显现并将持续深化。从进出口数据来看，2025年10月份丙烯酸丁酯出口量2.60万 吨，环比减少10.34%， ...