Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to experience a period of consolidation during the mid-year report disclosure phase, with a focus on defensive stocks with high earnings certainty, while also considering opportunities in AI, semiconductors, and state-owned enterprise reforms [1][15]. Market Performance - On July 14, the A-share market showed mild performance with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly up and the ChiNext Index slightly down, while trading volume decreased significantly to 1.48 trillion yuan [3]. - The market is currently in a phase of differentiation between large-cap and growth stocks, with main funds shifting from high-position thematic stocks to policy-driven sectors [3][12]. Sector Performance - The mechanical equipment, utilities, and home appliance sectors all saw gains exceeding 1%, driven by factors such as the acceleration of solid-state battery industrialization and increased engineering machinery exports [5][6]. - The real estate sector experienced a decline of 1.29%, reflecting market skepticism about the effectiveness of recent policy stimuli [8][7]. Investment Strategies - Companies are advised to adopt a balanced investment strategy, focusing on defensive sectors like banking and utilities for risk-averse investors, while higher-risk investors may consider technology growth sectors such as semiconductors and AI [15][12]. - The current market environment is characterized by a rotation of sectors, with opportunities across various industries, including those benefiting from policy support and industrial trends [12][15]. Earnings and Policy Impact - The mid-year earnings reports are expected to catalyze interest in sectors such as AI, military industry, and chemicals, with a focus on companies that exceed earnings expectations [12][15]. - The market is likely to remain active, with a structural market characteristic where individual stocks are performing well despite overall index fluctuations [11][15].

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that while there are concerns about high risks in the A-share market, particularly with 90% of concept stocks exceeding last year's peak prices, there are still investment opportunities in underperforming sectors and the overall market is not as bleak as portrayed [4][5]. Group 1: Market Valuation - The article acknowledges that there are objective risks in already overheated sectors, but emphasizes that the presence of many underperforming sectors indicates ongoing investment opportunities [5]. - It critiques the reliance on PE ratios for evaluating market valuation, noting that during poor economic conditions, low profit bases can inflate PE ratios, making them misleading [6]. - The current PE ratio of the CSI 300 is 13.34, which is at the 54.41 percentile historically, suggesting it is not particularly low but rather in a reasonable range due to the poor economic environment [6]. - In contrast, the PB ratio is only 1.39, at the 23.45 percentile historically, indicating that the market is still undervalued [7]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The article argues that using last year's peak on October 8 as a benchmark is flawed, as that rally was short-lived and not indicative of long-term market health [8]. - Despite the rise in bank stocks and small-cap stocks, sectors with historically high equity returns, such as food and beverage, oil and petrochemicals, and renewable energy, have not seen significant movement this year, suggesting potential investment value [8]. - The article expresses optimism for the future, stating that the most critical indicator of market risk is not individual valuation interpretations but rather the overall market sentiment [9]. - It concludes that the current market sentiment has not reached a level of euphoria that would signal high risk, indicating that the market is not overheating yet [10].

Group 1 - The fund aims to invest in consumer sectors that enhance the quality of life, with a focus on achieving returns that exceed the performance benchmark while strictly controlling investment risks [2][5] - The fund employs a top-down analysis approach for asset allocation, tracking macroeconomic indicators and policy changes to make strategic investment decisions [2][10] - The fund's performance benchmark is a composite of various indices, including the CSI Major Consumer Industry Index and the Hang Seng Index, reflecting a diversified investment strategy [2][10] Group 2 - During the reporting period from April 1, 2025, to June 30, 2025, the fund's Class A shares achieved a net value growth rate of 4.32%, while Class C shares recorded a growth rate of 4.11% [10] - The fund's investment portfolio is heavily weighted in equities, with stocks accounting for 92.38% of total assets, while bonds represent only 0.18% [12] - The fund's top ten holdings do not include any securities that are under regulatory investigation or have faced public reprimands in the past year [15] Group 3 - The report indicates a stable domestic economic environment, with China's retail sales growth improving to 6.4% in May, up from 3.5% in April, suggesting a positive trend in consumer spending [9] - The A-share market remains active, with major indices showing upward movement, particularly in sectors like defense, beauty care, and light manufacturing [9][10] - The outlook for new consumption trends, particularly in areas like trendy products and beauty care, is optimistic, driven by innovation and changing consumer preferences [10] Group 4 - The fund's total share count at the end of the reporting period was 197,750,306.53 shares, with Class A shares totaling 97,420,757.23 and Class C shares totaling 100,329,549.30 [2][17] - The fund management has adhered to legal regulations and internal policies, ensuring fair trading practices and no instances of unfair trading or profit transfer between different investment portfolios [8][6] - The fund's investment strategy includes a focus on high-growth sectors such as services, brand consumer goods, and technology, indicating a forward-looking approach to capitalizing on market opportunities [10]

证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 07 月 15 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 07 月 15 日 ：王禾 执业证书编号：S1230512110001 ：021-80105901 ：wanghe@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 重要点评 【浙商电新 童非】计算机 行业深度：HVDC 与柴发环节，AI 浪潮下的双子星——20250713 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/3 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 大势：7 月 14 日上证指数上涨 0.27%，沪深 300 上涨 0.07%，科创 50 下跌 0.21%，中证 1000 上涨 0.02%，创业板 指下跌 0.45%，恒生指数上涨 0.26%。 行业：7 月 14 日表现最好的行业分别是机械设备（+1.23%)、综合（+1.04%)、公用事业（+1.04%)、家用电器（+1.02%)、 石油石化（+0.86%)，表现最差的行业分别是房地产（-1.29%)、传媒（-1.24%)、非银金融（-1.03%)、商贸零售（-0.94%)、 计算机（-0.88%)。 资金：7 月 14 日全 A 总成交额为 14809 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3519.65 points, up 0.27%, with a trading volume of 623.1 billion yuan [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10684.52 points, down 0.11%, with a trading volume of 835.6 billion yuan [1] - The ChiNext Index closed at 2197.07 points, down 0.45%, with a trading volume of 387.28 billion yuan [1] - The STAR Market 50 Index closed at 992.39 points, down 0.21%, with a trading volume of 22.92 billion yuan [1] - Total trading volume for both markets was 1458.75 billion yuan, a decrease of 253.38 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - Strong sectors included machinery, public utilities, oil and petrochemicals, textiles, chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and pharmaceuticals [2] - Active concepts included PEEK materials, humanoid robots, geothermal energy, and innovative drugs [2] - Weak sectors included real estate, media, securities, education, insurance, and retail [2] Fund Flow - The net outflow of main funds from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 26.576 billion yuan [3] - The net outflow from the ChiNext was 12.112 billion yuan, and from the CSI 300 was 6.366 billion yuan [4] - Only four sectors saw net inflows: machinery (394 million yuan), home appliances (117 million yuan), coal (38 million yuan), and oil and petrochemicals (37 million yuan) [4] Individual Stock Performance - A total of 2089 stocks saw net inflows, with 37 stocks receiving over 100 million yuan in net inflows [5] - The stock with the highest net inflow was Zhongji Xuchuang, with 497 million yuan [6] - Conversely, 3048 stocks experienced net outflows, with 92 stocks seeing over 100 million yuan in net outflows [7] - BYD had the highest net outflow at 1.308 billion yuan [8] Institutional Activity - Institutions had a net buy of approximately 33.89 million yuan, with 17 stocks being net bought and 14 stocks net sold [9] - The stock with the highest institutional net buy was Xiangyang Bearing, with about 111 million yuan [10]

Market Overview - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the A-share market showed mixed performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.27% to close at 3519.65 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.11% to 10684.52 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.45% to 2197.07 points [1][10] - Overall, a total of 3178 stocks rose, while 2062 stocks fell, and 175 stocks remained unchanged, indicating a generally positive sentiment in the market despite some declines in major indices [1][10] Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, the mechanical equipment, comprehensive, public utilities, home appliances, and petroleum and petrochemical sectors led the gains, with increases of 1.23%, 1.04%, 1.04%, 1.02%, and 0.86% respectively [1][10] - Conversely, the real estate, media, non-bank financials, commercial retail, and computer industries experienced declines, with decreases of 1.29%, 1.24%, 1.03%, 0.94%, and 0.88% respectively [1][10] Sector Highlights - The top-performing concept sectors today included first boards, lithium mining, board hitting, vitamins, innovative drugs, charging piles, gold and jewelry, ultra-high voltage, paper making, pre-increase, consecutive boards, CRO, auto parts, masks, and animal vaccines [2][12] - The sectors that faced the most significant declines included stock trading software, marketing communication, and financial technology [2][12]

Group 1 - The recent surge in the A-share market indicates the confirmation of a bull market, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through previous high points and showing significant trading volume, suggesting a recovery from earlier declines [1][8][6] - The impact of tariffs announced by Trump is viewed as limited, with historical examples indicating that trade wars do not significantly affect economic performance, as seen during the 1930 trade war [1][17][20] - The bull market is expected to generate three wealth effects: stabilizing expectations, supporting consumption, and restoring financing functions, with increased retail participation in the stock market [1][25][39] Group 2 - Historical analysis shows that sectors tend to rotate after new highs, with financials, cyclical resources, and military industries frequently leading the market, while manufacturing and consumer sectors rely more on their own trends [2][43][44] - Potential rotation directions in the current market include non-bank financials and cyclical resource sectors, with expectations for real estate stabilization being crucial for economic recovery [3][7] - The report highlights that the current bull market is characterized by a significant inflow of funds into the stock market, driven by increased retail investor activity and policy support [1][25][39]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown signs of recovery this week, driven by increased risk appetite and positive market sentiment, with the ChiNext index experiencing the largest gains among major indices [3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market has rebounded this week, influenced by rising policy expectations and improved market sentiment, with most major indices showing upward trends [3]. - The ChiNext index recorded the highest increase among major indices this week [3]. - Sector performance varied, with real estate, steel, and non-bank financial sectors performing relatively well [3]. Group 2: Industry Earnings Outlook - The upcoming earnings season is expected to favor industries with strong mid-year performance, as these sectors typically see better stock price movements in July and August [4]. - Historical data indicates that industries with strong earnings in July and August have a higher probability of achieving excess returns [4]. - The manufacturing sector is predicted to have the highest earnings growth, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 10.0%, followed by TMT and financial real estate sectors [4]. - The TMT sector is expected to show the most significant improvement, with a projected year-on-year growth increase of 5.8 percentage points [4]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Earnings Predictions - High predicted net profit growth rates are expected in the light industry, non-ferrous metals, non-bank financials, electronics, and social services sectors [5]. - In contrast, sectors such as steel, real estate, coal, oil and petrochemicals, and public utilities may face profit growth pressures [5]. - The construction materials, electronics, communications, retail, and computer sectors are anticipated to show significant improvement compared to the first quarter [5]. - The overall pre-announcement rate for A-share earnings is currently at 72%, with high pre-announcement rates in real estate, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and environmental protection sectors [5]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The market is expected to trend upwards in the second half of the year, potentially reaching new highs, with a shift from policy-driven to fundamentals and liquidity-driven market dynamics [6]. - Short-term focus should be on sectors with favorable mid-year earnings, while long-term attention should be on three main lines: domestic consumption, technological self-reliance, and dividend stocks [6]. - In the domestic consumption sector, attention should be given to subsidy-related and offline service consumption [6]. - The technology sector should focus on AI, robotics, semiconductor supply chains, national defense, and low-altitude economy [6].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on undervalued downstream brands or OEM industries with low expectations and dividend attributes, indicating a positive investment outlook for these sectors [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the need to identify high-potential companies that can generate quality profits, particularly in the new consumption sector, as the market approaches the mid-year reporting season [2]. - It highlights the importance of focusing on companies with strong brand power and those that can benefit from the ongoing expansion of the overseas market, particularly in the context of the new consumption narrative [2][20]. - The report also notes that various sectors, such as light manufacturing, textiles, and home appliances, are showing signs of stabilization or growth, suggesting potential investment opportunities [3][5][25]. Summary by Relevant Sections Light Manufacturing - New tobacco products are expected to grow steadily, with a clear expansion trend in the overseas vaping market and a positive outlook for the HNB industry [3][20]. - The home furnishings sector is stabilizing, with a focus on companies that can demonstrate resilience and growth potential [3][20]. - The paper industry is entering a demand peak in Q3, with significant price recovery potential [3][21]. - The toy industry continues to expand, with strong performance from leading companies like Pop Mart [3][21]. Textiles and Apparel - The apparel sector is experiencing weak consumer demand, but there are opportunities in unique and differentiated brands, especially in new retail formats [3][23]. - The export market faces uncertainties due to potential tariffs, which could impact pricing and demand [3][23]. Beauty and Personal Care - The beauty sector is advised to focus on leading companies with strong mid-year performance and those with significant potential for price recovery [3][24]. Home Appliances - Skyworth's acquisition of Philips' North American business is expected to enhance its market presence and product offerings in high-end segments [3][25]. - The TV market is experiencing price declines, but demand is anticipated to recover in Q3 [3][25][26]. Retail and Social Services - The retail sector is under pressure, but there are signs of improvement in certain areas, such as instant retail and dining services [3][27][28]. - The report notes that the tourism and restaurant sectors are maintaining high levels of activity, indicating a positive trend [3][27]. Overall Market Trends - The report suggests that the new consumption narrative is gaining traction, with a focus on companies that can deliver high-quality profits and those that are well-positioned for growth in the evolving market landscape [2][8].

Core Insights - 26 companies listed on the ChiNext board have released their performance forecasts for the first half of the year, with 19 companies expecting profit increases, representing 73.08% of the total [1] - The overall proportion of companies reporting positive forecasts is 80.77%, with 2 companies expecting profits and 1 company forecasting losses [1] Performance Forecast Summary - Among the companies with positive forecasts, 7 are expected to see net profit growth exceeding 100%, while 4 companies anticipate growth between 50% and 100% [1] - Han Yu Pharmaceutical is projected to have the highest net profit growth, with a median increase of 1567.36% [1] - Other notable companies include Chuanjin Nuo and Longyuan Technology, with expected net profit growth of 167.27% and 137.44% respectively [1] Company Performance Highlights - The following companies are highlighted for their significant expected profit increases: - Han Yu Pharmaceutical (Code: 300199) - Expected net profit growth: 1567.36%, Latest closing price: 18.24, Year-to-date change: 41.51%, Industry: Pharmaceutical [1] - Chuanjin Nuo (Code: 300505) - Expected net profit growth: 167.27%, Latest closing price: 19.95, Year-to-date change: 40.94%, Industry: Basic Chemicals [1] - Longyuan Technology (Code: 300105) - Expected net profit growth: 137.44%, Latest closing price: 8.11, Year-to-date change: 7.79%, Industry: Environmental Protection [1] - Other companies with notable growth include Chenguang Biotech, Feirongda, Boteng Co., and Huizhong Co. [1]