Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Copper, Aluminum, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium, Lithium Carbonate [1] - Bearish: Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, No. 05 Contract of Rapeseed Oil, Benzene Ethylene [1] - Neutral (Oscillation): Stock Index, Treasury Bond, Alumina, Zinc, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, High - Ash Coal, Cotton, Sugar, Wheat, Corn, Pulp, Log, Live Pig, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Steam, PP, PVC, LPG, Shipping [1] Core Views - After the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the risk appetite of global equity assets is gradually recovering, and the stock index is oscillating and rebounding. However, further breakthrough requires volume support, and the market sentiment is expected to be cautious by the end of the year [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. - The macro - sentiment has improved, and the prices of some metals such as copper, aluminum, and nickel are showing upward trends, while the fundamentals of some metals like alumina remain weak [1]. - In the non - ferrous metal industry, the production plan of Indonesian nickel ore in 2026 is expected to be reduced, which has an impact on the market [1]. - In the stainless - steel industry, raw material prices are stable, inventory is decreasing, and production cuts are increasing [1]. - In the precious - metal and new - energy sectors, gold has reached a new high, and silver, platinum, and palladium are also bullish, but there are risks of volatility [1]. - In the black - metal industry, the black - metal sector has experienced a resonance decline, but there are signs of stabilization [1]. - In the agricultural - product market, different products have different supply - demand situations and price trends, and attention should be paid to various factors such as policies, weather, and inventories [1]. - In the energy - chemical industry, different products are affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and production plans, showing different price trends [1]. Summaries by Related Categories Macro - Financial - Stock Index: After the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the risk appetite of global equity assets is gradually recovering, and the stock index is oscillating and rebounding. Further breakthrough requires volume support, and the market sentiment is expected to be cautious by the end of the year, with the stock index mainly oscillating [1]. - Treasury Bond: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike has led to a recovery in market risk appetite, and copper prices are running strongly [1]. - Aluminum: With limited industrial drive and improved macro - sentiment, aluminum prices are oscillating strongly [1]. - Alumina: The domestic fundamentals remain weak, and the price will remain low in the short term [1]. - Zinc: The fundamentals have improved, and the cost center has moved up, but the zinc price is under pressure due to news such as LME position limits. Attention can be paid to low - buying opportunities [1]. - Nickel: The US inflation has slowed down more than expected, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike has warmed the macro - sentiment. The production plan of Indonesian nickel ore in 2026 is expected to be reduced, and the global nickel inventory is still high. The Shanghai nickel has rebounded significantly recently and may run strongly in the short term. The long - term primary nickel market remains in a surplus pattern [1]. - Stainless Steel: The price of raw material nickel - iron has stabilized, the social inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly, and steel mills have increased production cuts in December. The stainless - steel futures continue to rebound, and short - term long - position operations are recommended, waiting for high - selling hedging opportunities [1]. - Tin: The situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is still tense. The short - term macro - sentiment has improved, and coupled with capital speculation, the tin price has strengthened [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold: Due to loose liquidity and rising geopolitical tensions, the gold price has reached a new high and may run strongly in the short term, but there are risks of volatility [1]. - Silver: Macro - drive, supply - demand imbalance, and ETF position increase are beneficial to silver, but there are risks of short - term sharp fluctuations [1]. - Platinum and Palladium: Driven by macro - factors, supply - demand imbalance, and capital sentiment, they may maintain a bullish pattern in the short term, but there are risks of market fluctuations, and investors are advised to participate cautiously [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: The basis and production profit are not high, indicating that the price valuation is not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1]. - Iron Ore: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contract still has upward opportunities [1]. - Ferrosilicon: The direct demand is weak, the supply is high, and the price is under pressure [1]. - Glass: The supply - demand situation provides support, the valuation is low, and the price fluctuates strongly in the short term due to sentiment [1]. - Soda Ash: It follows the trend of glass, with acceptable supply - demand and low valuation, and may be under pressure and oscillate [1]. - Coking Coal and Coke: After the negative news was released, there are signs of stabilization, and attention should be paid to whether downstream enterprises will start winter - storage replenishment [1]. - High - Ash Coal: Although high - frequency data have improved, it is difficult to change the expectation of loose supply in the origin, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Affected by the decline of CBOT and other domestic oils, it is running weakly [1]. - Soybean Oil: Affected by the weak performance of related markets, it is running weakly [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: The short - term raw - material shortage theme is expected to be fully priced, and short - selling the 05 contract is recommended due to the expected high yield in the global main production areas [1]. - Cotton: There is support from the purchase price of seed cotton, and there is rigid replenishment demand in the downstream. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no drive", and attention should be paid to policies, planting area, and demand in the future [1]. - Sugar: There is a consensus on short - selling in the market. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support below, but there is a lack of continuous drive in the short - term fundamentals [1]. - Wheat and Corn: The market supply - demand tension has eased, but farmers are reluctant to sell, and the inventory is at a low level. There is expected to be some replenishment demand before the Spring Festival, which limits the decline of the price [1]. - Pulp: Affected by weak demand and strong supply expectations, it fluctuates greatly. Unilateral operations are recommended to wait and see, and 1 - 5 reverse spreads can be considered for the spread [1]. - Log: Affected by the decline of external quotes and spot prices, the 01 contract is under pressure and is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - Live Pig: The spot price is gradually stabilizing, but the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Fuel Oil: It follows the trend of crude oil in the short term, and the supply of raw - material Marey crude oil is sufficient [1]. - Asphalt: The profit is relatively high, and it is affected by factors such as production - demand and cost [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: It is affected by factors such as inventory increase, cost decline, and policy changes [1]. - Short - Fiber: It closely follows the cost fluctuations [1]. - Steam: It is affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and production plans, and the market expectation is weak [1]. - PP: The supply pressure is large, the downstream improvement is less than expected, and the market expectation is weak [1]. - PVC: The supply pressure is increasing, the demand is weak, and the price is oscillating within a range [1]. - LPG: After the price correction, it maintains range - bound oscillation, and attention should be paid to the impact of natural gas on the near - month price and the decline of the far - month spread [1]. - Shipping: The price increase in December was less than expected, the supply of shipping capacity was relatively loose, and the market was affected by various factors [1].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recent performance of precious metals and energy commodities, noting that gold, silver, and copper have reached historical highs, while oil prices have also increased due to geopolitical tensions and supply dynamics [1][2][3]. Precious Metals - International gold and silver prices have reached historical highs, with gold rising over 2% and silver increasing by more than 3% [1][2]. - The U.S. November CPI was reported at 2.7%, lower than the expected 3.1%, and the core CPI at 2.6%, below the anticipated 3%, which raises questions about inflation but provides room for potential interest rate cuts [2][20]. - The U.S. non-farm payroll data showed an increase of 64,000 jobs, better than the expected 50,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, supporting the expectation of continued monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, which is bullish for precious metals [2][20]. Energy Commodities - Oil prices have seen a significant increase, with the SC night market rising by 2.01%. Saudi Arabia's average daily crude oil exports reached 7.1 million barrels in October, the highest in two and a half years, up from 6.46 million barrels in September [3][14]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding potential sanctions on Russia's energy sector, are influencing oil prices, although the overall trend remains uncertain [3][14]. Agricultural Products - The palm oil market is experiencing upward pressure due to Malaysia's reduction of export tax rates, although inventory levels remain high, and a significant improvement in the supply-demand balance is not expected until December [29]. - The soybean market is under pressure from slow export sales and strong production expectations in South America, leading to a bearish outlook for soybean prices [28]. Financial Markets - The U.S. stock indices have shown an upward trend, with significant market activity and a financing balance increase, indicating a potential long-term bullish trend supported by favorable policies and liquidity [11]. - The bond market is experiencing a general decline, with the 10-year government bond yield rising to 1.845%, reflecting a mixed economic outlook and expectations of future monetary policy adjustments [12][13]. Shipping Index - The European shipping index has shown a strong upward movement, with a reported increase of 8.77% in the EC contract, reflecting positive market sentiment and expectations for price stability in the near future [32][33].

【导读】日本救汇率了 大家好，日本政府，刚刚向外汇市场发出"救市"信号。 日本财务大臣片山皋月表示，日本在面对与基本面不符的汇率波动时"有充分回旋余地"采取果断行动。 这是她迄今对投机资金最强硬的警告之一。此前，日本央行加息后日元仍走弱，引发市场对当局可能干 预的猜测。 "这些走势显然并不符合基本面，而更像是投机行为。"片山在接受采访时表示，指的是上周五日元的快 速贬值。"针对这类走势，我们已经明确表态将果断行动，这一点也写在日美财长联合声明里。" 片山在暗示可能进行直接汇市干预的同时，也谈到：随着高市早苗政府推动更强劲的经济增长，日本短 期内的财政压力可能会加大——这同样是投资者关注的重点。 片山的表态，发生在外界再度猜测财务省可能出手干预之际。此前日本央行在高度"预告"的情况下，将 借贷成本上调至30年来最高水平，但日元在加息后反而走弱。日本央行行长植田和男在会后记者会上的 发言，被部分市场人士解读为对再次加息的信号不够强硬，结果触发日元进一步下滑。 片山提到与美国的联合声明，意味着她认为日本已获得华盛顿方面的"默许"，必要时可在无需进一步协 商的情况下采取行动。她的前任加藤胜信与美国财政部长斯科特·贝森 ...

Core Viewpoint - The French bond market is facing significant turmoil, with the 30-year bond yield reaching its highest level since 2009, driven by concerns over the country's fiscal outlook following the breakdown of budget negotiations [1][4]. Group 1: Market Impact - The yield on France's 30-year bonds rose by 7 basis points to 4.525%, while the 10-year bond yield increased by 6 basis points to 3.614%, nearing a nine-month high [1]. - The failure of budget negotiations has led to a loss of market confidence, posing a major setback for Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu, who had aimed to pass the national budget by year-end [5]. Group 2: Fiscal Policy Implications - The breakdown of budget talks means the government will have to extend the budget until 2026, severely limiting its ability to reform public finances [4]. - The inability to pass new spending projects, including a proposed €6.5 billion increase in defense spending, highlights the constraints imposed by the budget extension mechanism [5]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The stalled budget will hinder France's efforts to reduce its fiscal deficit, with plans to bring the deficit below 5% of GDP by 2026 and to 3% by 2029, as required by the European Commission [6]. - The French central bank governor indicated that the budget extension would result in a deficit significantly above ideal levels, lacking any cost-saving or tax measures [6]. Group 4: Political Dynamics - Prime Minister Lecornu's failure to push the budget through is attributed to his decision to forgo a constitutional power that would allow the government to pass the budget without parliamentary vote, risking a vote of no confidence [7]. - Efforts to negotiate compromises with the center-left Socialist Party have not resolved the deadlock, as numerous amendments proposed by opposition parties have stalled the legislative process [7].

3. 澳新银行：降低利率不足以解决泰国的经济增长问题 澳新银行研究负责东南亚和印度的首席经济学家Sanjay Mathur在一份报告中说，降低利率不足以解决泰 国的经济增长问题。他指出，2025年下半年的增长受到短途游客减少和泰国南部洪灾的影响。然而，泰 国2026年的前景受到结构性因素的影响，包括收入增长放缓和出口可能会对家庭消费造成压力。他表 示："可能推迟至议会选举结束的刺激性财政政策，以及（泰铢）更具竞争力，同样至关重要。"澳新银 行继续预计，央行将在2026年第一季度将其政策利率再下调25个基点。 4. 分析师：英国央行很可能会把任何降息行动描述为渐进的风险管理转变 2. 荷兰合作银行：2026年欧元兑美元上行空间受限，或维持区间震荡 交易平台Capital.com高级市场分析师Daniela Hathorn说："由于通胀率仍高于目标，服务业价格看起来仍 有粘性，英国央行政策制定者不太可能发出明显的鸽派信号。相反，英国央行很可能会把任何降息行动 描述为渐进的风险管理转变，而不是全面的宽松周期。" 荷兰合作银行外汇分析师简·弗利指出，尽管德国财政支出有望于明年最终推动该国经济摆脱停滞，但 欧元市场已为 ...

在其他市场，美国十年期国债收益率收于4.145%，跌0.86%；2026年2月黄金期货收于4332.35美元/盎 司，与周一比几乎没有什变化；得克萨斯西部轻质油收于55.07美元/桶，跌1.6美元，即2.82%；美元指 数收于97.86点，跌0.10%。显而易见，投资者对经济的忧虑加深了。 美联储决策者和投资者所期盼的10月和11月份就业报告终于出炉，结果显示，就业市场进入"低雇佣-低 裁员"模式。10月，联邦政府裁员16.2万人，私营部门增加5.2万个岗位，整体裁减了10.5万个就业岗 位。11月，建筑行业增加2.8万个岗位，医疗服务（应对老龄化问题）增加了6.4万个岗位，总体增加了 6.4万个岗位。 就业市场基本面没有什么变化，医疗服务部门提供了绝大多数就业岗位，而其他经济部门处于低水平调 整模式或维持现状，尤其是备受关注的制造业和信息服务部门保持低裁员趋势。 南方财经21世纪经济报道特约撰稿 王应贵、娄世艳 北美当地时间12月16日，美国劳工部最新报告显示，10月份全美裁员10.5万个，11月份新增岗位6.4万 个；10月份，零售额同比增长3.47%，低于9月的4.18%，环比增长为0%，与9月份持平。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily views and evaluations of various futures contracts, covering multiple sectors such as finance, metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products, and gives corresponding operation suggestions based on market conditions [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Selected Views - NI2601 is expected to be weakly volatile [3]. - L2601 (LLDPE) is expected to be weakly volatile [3]. - rb2501 (coking coal) is expected to rebound from the bottom [3]. - M2605 (soybean meal) is expected to be weakly volatile [3]. 3.2 Full - Variety Daily Reviews 3.2.1 Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: Due to weak economic data in November, the stock index continued to trade in a shrinking - volume range. There is no clear upward trend, and the market lacks a dominant theme. It is advisable to be cautious about the risk of chasing highs in the trading range and appropriately lay out bull spreads at low levels [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market is still insensitive to economic data. In the absence of allocation demand, ultra - long bonds are weak. The upper limit of the 10 - year yield is not expected to deviate significantly from 1.85%. T2603 should pay attention to the support around 107.6. In the short term, it is advisable to wait and see, and consider the market as a narrow - range fluctuation. For the spot - futures strategy, pay attention to the positive arbitrage and basis widening opportunities of the 2603 contract [3]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold needs to build momentum to break through the previous high. Pay attention to the impact of US economic data and Fed officials' statements on market sentiment. Buy gold below $4,300. Silver may enter the overbought zone, so it is recommended to wait and see. For platinum and palladium, operate based on the external market, buy on dips, or use out - of - the - money call options instead of long positions, and control positions [3]. 3.2.2 Commodity Futures Metals - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Iron ore is expected to be weakly volatile in the range of 730 - 780. Consider the opportunity to expand the ratio of rebar to iron ore as iron water production drops. Go long on the January rebar - to - iron ore ratio [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal is expected to trade in the range of 1,000 - 1,150, and consider a 1 - 5 reverse spread. Coke is expected to trade in the range of 1,450 - 1,600, and consider a 1 - 5 reverse spread [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: For copper, hold long - term long positions and pay attention to the support at 90,000 - 91,000. For aluminum, the main contract is expected to trade in the range of 21,700 - 22,400, and go long on dips. For zinc, pay attention to the support at 23,000 - 23,200 and continue to hold the cross - market reverse arbitrage. For tin, hold previous long positions and buy on dips. For nickel, the main contract is expected to trade in the range of 110,000 - 118,000. For stainless steel, the main contract is expected to trade in the range of 12,200 - 12,800 [3]. Energy and Chemicals - **Petrochemicals**: PX is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term. PTA is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term, and pay attention to the low - level positive spread opportunity for TA5 - 9. For short - fiber, the processing fee is mainly compressed, and the operation is the same as PTA. For bottle - grade polyester, the inventory decline supports the processing fee, and pay attention to the device restart and production progress. For ethanol, sell EG2605 - C - 4100 to obtain time value [3]. - **Other Chemicals**: For natural rubber, the price is expected to trade in a range, and it is advisable to wait and see. For synthetic rubber, due to the strengthening of the cost side, BR has risen strongly, and sell BR2602 - C - 11200 at high prices [3]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: For soybeans and soybean meal, the US soybeans have no bright spots, and pay attention to China's soybean customs clearance policy. For corn, the arrival volume has increased slightly, and the price is expected to be volatile and adjust. For edible oils, the US biodiesel blending quota is undecided, which may be negative for the oil market. The main contract of palm oil may test the support at 8,200 - 8,300 [3]. - **Livestock and Poultry Products**: For pigs, the market is in a bottom - grinding phase. For eggs, pay attention to the support at the previous low. For apples, the price is expected to be volatile around 9,500 in the short term. For dates, high - sell and low - buy due to supply pressure and weak demand [3]. - **Cash Crops**: For sugar, the price is expected to be weakly volatile. For cotton, the price is expected to be strongly volatile, and pay attention to the resistance around 14,050 - 14,100 [3].

来源：市场资讯 股指： 展望：短期来看，货币政策维持适度宽松基调不变对债市形成一定利好，债市经历前期调整之后有望小 幅修复，长期来看，资金合理充裕的同时，经济企稳回升，物价回暖，债市震荡格局难改。 宏观：中央经济工作会议定调积极 中央经济工作会议强调，明年经济工作在政策取向上"要加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度。在逆周期调节 稳增长的同时，这体现为，2026年作为"十五五"起步之年，政策出发点以逆周期政策托底，但增量政策 或更多在于长效政策，即相关的政策部署将考虑更好的街接2035年实现现代化的目标。考虑到中国经济 在未来十年将面临劳动力供给趋缓、资本边际效率下降以及全要素生产率（TFP）增速放缓等结构性约 束，潜在增长率可能逐年回落。为了更好的衔接2035年远景目标，预计"十五五"开局前三年，GDP增速 目标仍设在5%左右，给"十五五"后期以及"十六五"留出更多提质增效的空间。 会议中提到"适当增加中央预算内投资规模，优化实施"两重"项目，优化地方政府专项债券用途管理， 继续发挥新型政策性金融工具作用，有效激发民间投资活力。"以及"着力稳定房地产市场，因城施策控 增量、去库存、优供给，鼓励收购存量商品房重点用于保 ...

国债： 昨日国债期货收盘，30年期主力合约涨0.3%，10年期主力合约涨0.06%，5年期主力合约涨0.06%，2年 期主力合约涨0.04%。中国央行12月10日开展1898亿元7天期逆回购，中标利率1.4%，上次中标利率 1.4%。据qeubee统计，公开市场有793亿元逆回购到期，实现净投放1105亿元。资金面来看，DR001下 行1BP至1.29%，DR007上行0.1BP至1.45%。11月初央行买卖国债利好落地，此外MLF和买断式逆回购 继续延续净投放，资金面整体宽松，但市场对于央行降息的预期较低，债市呈现利好出尽行情，国债收 益率震荡小幅上行，收益率曲线陡峭化。年内来看，资金宽松但降息预期较弱，经济边际走弱但整体保 持韧性，通胀延续温和回升态势，预计年内延续窄幅震荡走势。 贵金属： 贵金属：隔夜伦敦现货黄金震荡走高，现货白银再创历史新高，现货铂钯震荡走弱，金银比降至68.3附 近，铂钯价差收窄至175美元/盎司附近。昨晚美联储议息会议如期降息25个基点，并启动短期美债购 买。点阵图显示明年预计会有一次25个基点的降息，这意味着明年的降息动作将较今年明显放缓。鲍威 尔表示购债规模未来几个月或维持较高 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 突然熄火了！ 今天早上，日韩股市一度高开高走，但随后不久，双双跳水，日经指数跌幅迅速扩大。新加坡、马来西 亚、越南、菲律宾等股市也全线走弱。或受此影响，A50快速跳水，跌幅一度达1%，A股和港股表现亦 受到明显拖累。 外汇市场，美元指数最近走势较强。而国债市场，日本6个月国债继续暴跌，多个期限国债走势较弱。 分析人士认为，日本央行行长强烈暗示12月加息，短期日元和日债收益率快速上行，鹰派信号引发市场 波动。另外，中国11月CPI同比涨幅创2024年3月份以来最高，这一向好数据可能给政策预期带来了一 丝扰动。 集体跳水 最近，全球市场波动明显加大。今早，日韩股市再度跳水，日经指数由涨近1%到跌超0.5%，韩股冲高 之后也是显著回落。澳大利亚股指表现也比较弱。A股开盘后，A50快速跳水超1%，带动市场情绪走 低。 早盘，创业板指一度跌超2%，沪指一度跌近30点，培育钻石、创新药、电池等方向跌幅居前，沪深京 三市下跌个股一度超3600只。近期港股更是持续处于弱势状态。 分析人士认为，市场调整一方面可能与全球流动性有关。2025年12月议息会议 ...