盘面上，核电板块持续活跃，中国核建、合锻智能、神马电力、金隅集团、安泰科技等涨停；地产概念 逆势活跃，津投城开、合肥城建、深振业A、广东明珠、新疆交建、华新水泥等涨停；机器人概念局部 活跃，神马股份、派斯林、京泉华、汇得科技、卓郎智能、联发股份等涨停；燃气板块震荡拉升，大众 公用、洪通燃气等涨停；电力板块异动拉升，国电南自、新特电气、四方股份等涨停；下跌方面，高位 股集体下跌，半导体、贵金属概念跌幅居前。 10月10日，A股市场三大指数集体收跌，截至收盘，沪指报3897.03点，跌0.94%；深证成指报13355.42 点，跌2.7%；创业板指报3113.26点，跌4.55%。总体来看，个股涨多跌少，上涨个股超2700只。沪深两 市全天成交额2.52万亿元，较上个交易日缩量1300亿元。 ...

Group 1: Industry Overview Upstream - Black: Glass prices are rising [2] - Agriculture: Egg prices have significantly declined [2] - Non - ferrous: Copper prices are rising [2] Midstream - Chemical: PX operating rate has declined, while urea operating rate is rising; PX operating rate was at a high level [2] - Energy: Power plant coal consumption is at a low level [2] Downstream - Real estate: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities have slightly recovered [2] - Service: The number of domestic flights is at a three - year high due to holidays [2] Group 2: Industry Events Production Industry - On October 9, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs issued 4 announcements to implement export controls on items such as super - hard materials, some rare - earth equipment and raw materials, some medium - heavy rare earths, lithium batteries, and artificial graphite anode materials [1] - On October 9, three departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued an announcement on the technical requirements for new energy vehicles eligible for vehicle purchase tax exemption from 2026 - 2027, adjusting the technical requirements for pure - electric passenger cars and plug - in (including extended - range) hybrid passenger cars [1] Service Industry - China and India will resume direct flights by the end of October this year [1] Group 3: Key Data - On October 9, the spot price of corn was 2237.1 yuan/ton, down 2.12% year - on - year; the spot price of eggs was 6.3 yuan/kg, down 12.93%; the spot price of palm oil was 9598.0 yuan/ton, up 4.03%; the spot price of cotton was 14764.2 yuan/ton, down 0.84%; the average wholesale price of pork was 18.6 yuan/kg, down 3.47%; the spot price of copper was 85823.3 yuan/ton, up 7.20%; the spot price of zinc was 22140.0 yuan/ton, up 1.45% [33] - For non - ferrous metals, on October 9, the spot price of aluminum was 20970.0 yuan/ton, up 1.34%; the spot price of nickel was 124000.0 yuan/ton, down 0.32%; another spot price of aluminum was 16868.8 yuan/ton, down 0.95%; the spot price of rebar was 3174.5 yuan/ton, down 0.64% [33] - For other metals, on October 9, the spot price of iron ore was 792.2 yuan/ton, down 1.94%; the spot price of wire rod was 3357.5 yuan/ton, down 0.52%; the spot price of glass was 15.6 yuan/square meter, up 3.45% [33] - For non - metals, on October 9, the spot price of natural rubber was 14758.3 yuan/ton, down 1.34%; the China Plastic City price index was 788.5, down 0.21% [33] - For energy, on October 9, the spot price of WTI crude oil was 62.6 dollars/barrel, down 1.42%; the spot price of Brent crude oil was 66.3 dollars/barrel, down 1.25%; the spot price of liquefied natural gas was 3762.0 yuan/ton, down 2.39%; the coal price was 791.0 yuan/ton, down 0.25% [33] - For chemicals, on October 9, the spot price of PTA was 4564.5 yuan/ton, down 0.18%; the spot price of polyethylene was 7348.3 yuan/ton, up 0.02%; the spot price of urea was 1583.8 yuan/ton, down 4.31%; the spot price of soda ash was 1262.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; the national cement price index was 135.4, up 0.44% [33] - For real estate, on October 9, the building materials composite index was 113.0 points, down 1.22%; the national concrete price index was 91.7 points, down 0.02% [33]

2025年前三季度，在市场结构性行情主导下，公募基金业绩呈现出明显分化格局。其中，超50只基金净 值实现翻倍，部分科技和医药主题基金成为最大赢家，而重仓传统金融和周期板块的基金业绩表现则相 对一般。与此同时，市场避险情绪依旧高涨，国际现货金价不断创新高，全市场黄金ETF（交易型开放 式指数基金）业绩和份额实现双增。 数据显示，截至9月30日，全市场主动股票型基金年内平均收益率达34.54%，偏股混合型基金年内平均 收益率达34.13%，被动指数基金平均收益率为27.56%。对比来看，主动权益类基金表现较为出色，充 分体现出在结构性行情中主动投资的优势。与此同时，黄金ETF年内平均收益率更是达到41.04%。 业内人士向《国际金融报》记者表示，市场行情或将继续分化，四季度主线有望继续维持科技和创新药 行情。不过，前期涨幅较高的品种可能有较大波动，投资者可从主线行情中关注"高切低"的方向。 而主动权益类基金的高光表现离不开个别赛道的爆发，比如人工智能、算力、人形机器人等大科技赛 道，以及创新药等赛道。前三季度业绩领跑全市场的是永赢科技智选A，区间收益率达到194.49%，排 在第二的汇添富香港优势精选A同期收益率 ...

Core Insights - The holiday economy shows a steady increase, with a daily average of 154 million people traveling across regions during the first five days of the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.4% [1] - There is a notable increase in outbound and overseas travel flights, exceeding 12% [1] - Consumer spending is driven by two main themes: "cost-performance ratio" and "emotional value" [1] Travel and Tourism - Strong demand for homecoming and tourism travel is observed [1] - Different provinces and cities show growth in tourist reception and tourism revenue, although the growth rates vary significantly [1] - Movie consumption remains subdued, influenced by film quality, with ticket prices continuing to decline [1] Consumer Goods - The automotive sector performs well due to the impending expiration of subsidies and the launch of new models [1] - Home appliance consumption is affected by high base disturbances, but smart and green categories show strong performance [1] Real Estate and Land Market - Real estate sales see a holiday decline, with year-on-year variations due to base disturbances [1] - The land market remains relatively cold [1] Economic Indicators - Infrastructure investment is ramping up, with the issuance of special bonds at the fastest pace in recent years [1] - Post-holiday restocking drives accelerated port operations [1] - Production slows down before the holiday, while consumer goods prices show significant increases, particularly in food and beverages [1] - Industrial product prices experience a slight decline [1] - Liquidity remains ample, with the US dollar index returning above 98 [1]

Market Overview - The A-share market indices all closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index stabilizing above 3900 points, reaching the highest level since August 2015, indicating strong bullish sentiment in the market [4] - The market showed a structural divergence, with 3109 stocks rising and 2184 stocks falling, highlighting both opportunities and risks [5][11] Trading Activity - The total trading volume in both markets exceeded 4700 billion, reflecting a significant increase of 21.63%, indicating extreme trading activity [6] - Resource stocks surged in the afternoon, driving the index to break through, while technology stocks experienced a short-term correction, creating a favorable "weight on stage, theme in play" market dynamic [6] Investor Sentiment - Institutional investors displayed a cautious and observant approach, with a tendency towards conservative positioning, as most funds opted to remain inactive [8] - Retail investors showed high enthusiasm for entering the market, driven by the "opening red" profit effect, leading to increased risk appetite and a tendency to chase market hotspots and engage in thematic investments [8] Fund Flow - There was a net outflow of funds from major players, while retail investors experienced a net inflow [7] - The overall positioning of institutions was characterized by "cautious observation + partial layout," with some funds adjusting their positions in cyclical stocks while adopting a "sell on rallies" strategy for high-valuation technology stocks [8]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets have shown strong performance post-holiday, driven by the synergy of policy benefits and industry trends, with significant gains in technology growth sectors and cyclical resource products [1] Market Performance - A-share market indices have demonstrated strong growth, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.24% to 3931.07 points, marking a ten-year high; the ChiNext Index increased by 1.77% to 3295.58 points, and the Sci-Tech 50 Index surged 5.59% [2] - Over 3200 stocks in the A-share market rose, with a notable concentration of gains in nuclear power, gold, and semiconductor sectors, indicating a clear market focus on technology and resource sectors [2] - The Hong Kong market showed a slight recovery, with the Hang Seng Index up 0.04% to 26840.95 points, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rising 0.63% [2] Industry Highlights and Driving Logic - The A-share market's technology and resource sectors have formed a leading growth tier, with the metals sector rising 6.51% and gold stocks benefiting from international gold prices exceeding $4000 per ounce [3] - The semiconductor industry remains robust, with a projected 27% share of AI data center semiconductor sales by 2025, driven by price reversals in storage chips and domestic substitution logic [3] - In the Hong Kong market, cyclical and infrastructure sectors have performed well, with copper prices driven by supply shortages and demand from computing power [3] Underperforming Sectors and Driving Logic - Traditional consumer and cyclical sectors in the A-share market are under pressure, with the media sector down 1.5% due to disappointing box office results, and real estate stocks experiencing widespread declines [4] - The Hong Kong market's pharmaceutical and consumer electronics sectors are struggling, with innovative drug stocks facing policy risks and valuation adjustments [4] Investment Strategy Recommendations - The current market is positioned at a critical juncture of "intensive policy implementation and accelerated industry trends," with three main investment themes suggested for Q4 [5] - The technology growth sector remains a core focus, particularly in the AI industry chain, with opportunities in semiconductor equipment, storage chips, and AI applications [5] - The cyclical and resource sectors present significant supply-demand mismatch opportunities, particularly in precious metals and chemical sectors, with expectations of performance recovery [5] Policy-Driven Opportunities - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes new productivity areas such as AI and high-end manufacturing, with increased policy support for critical sectors like controlled nuclear fusion and semiconductor equipment [6] - The consumer sector may see marginal improvements, with low-valuation categories like home appliances and food and beverage potentially benefiting from upcoming consumption stimulus policies [6]

市 场 研 究 核心观点 【市场回顾】 9 月 30 日 A 股三大指数集体收涨，截止收盘，沪指收涨 0.52%，深成 指收涨 0.35%，创业板指基本收平。沪深两市成交额 21811.07 亿元。 申万行业方面，有色金属、国防军工、房地产领涨，通信、非银金融、 综合领跌；概念板块方面，金属锌、金属铅、金属钴领涨，信托概念、 中韩自贸区、生物质能发电领跌。10 月 8 日，港股方面，恒生指数 收跌 0.48%，恒生科技指数收跌 0.55%；海外方面，美国三大指数涨 跌不一，道指基本收平，标普 500 收涨 0.58%，纳指收涨 1.12%。 【重要新闻】 【美国联邦政府近 7 年首次停摆】由于美国会参议院 9 月 30 日先后 否决两党拨款法案，当地时间 10 月 1 日 0 时 1 分，美国联邦政府近 7 年以来再次关门，数十万联邦雇员不得不面临强制休假或被裁员， 众多联邦部门的服务也"停摆"，部分公共服务或暂停、延迟，经济数 据发布将受到影响。20 世纪 70 年代以来，美国联邦政府因共和、民 主两党政策分歧导致拨款中断而"停摆"已有 20 多次。上一次也是最 长的一次"停摆"发生在 2018 年年底至 ...

Group 1 - The macroeconomic report indicates that after the APEC meeting, market risk appetite may gradually weaken, with a focus on technology stocks [2] - The A-share strategy report suggests two potential paths for the Shanghai Composite Index: either breaking through previous highs or undergoing a range-bound consolidation before a breakout [3] - The report recommends a strategy of increasing positions during pullbacks in the index, maintaining a bullish medium-term outlook [3] Group 2 - The report highlights that the main driving factors for market movements include updates from third-quarter data and the performance of major indices during the National Day holiday [3] - It emphasizes the importance of sector allocation, particularly recommending attention to brokerage stocks and the real estate sector, which may benefit from recent positive developments [3] - The report suggests specific tactical approaches for different investment strategies, including using trend lines for operations and differentiating between short and medium-term positions [3]

联合研究丨组合推荐 [Table_Title] 金融制造行业 10 月投资观点及金股推荐 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 长江金融行业（地产、非银、银行）和制造行业（电新、机械、军工、轻工、环保）2025 年 10 月投资观点及金股推荐。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 邬博华 于博 赵智勇 SAC：S0490514040001 SAC：S0490520090001 SAC：S0490517110001 SFC：BQK482 SFC：BUX667 SFC：BRP550 王贺嘉 蔡方羿 徐科 SAC：S0490520110004 SAC：S0490516060001 SAC：S0490517090001 SFC：BUX462 SFC：BUV463 SFC：BUV415 刘义 吴一凡 马祥云 SAC：S0490520040001 SAC：S0490519080007 SAC：S0490521120002 SFC：BUV416 SFC：BUV596 SFC：BUT916 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / ...

Group 1 - The core concern is the potential asset price bubble in the US, which has raised alarms among domestic investors regarding the A-share market's valuation and growth [1][2] - The Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 Index have seen a cumulative increase of approximately 15% from early 2025 to September 25, while the STAR Market and ChiNext Index have surged by 45% and 75% respectively since the initiation of the US-China tariff dispute on April 8 [2][5] - The valuation metrics indicate that the Shanghai Composite Index is at the 95.84th percentile of its ten-year valuation range, suggesting a significant valuation bubble, while the CSI 300 Index is at the 85th percentile, indicating it is also relatively expensive [5][6] Group 2 - The ChiNext Index, despite its substantial price increase, shows a relatively moderate valuation at the 52.4th percentile, indicating less bubble risk compared to traditional sectors represented by the Shanghai Composite Index [6][8] - The disparity in performance between the indices is attributed to the underlying asset quality, with traditional sectors experiencing weak earnings growth, while high-tech sectors are witnessing both earnings and valuation growth [8][12] - The ten-year valuation period is deemed more relevant for A-shares due to the market's internationalization since the establishment of the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connects, which has altered the valuation landscape significantly [9][11]