周三（10月8日）纽约尾盘，美元兑日元涨0.52%，报152.69日元，日内交投区间为151.74-153.00日元， 亚太早盘显著走高，随后持续高位震荡，北京时间17:56达到153日元关口。欧元兑日元涨0.29%，报 177.59日元，18:53曾达到177.86日元；英镑兑日元涨0.33%，报204.678日元，18:53曾达到205.322日 元。 ...

美元指数 在美元指数的表现上，周二美元指数呈现出上涨的态势。当日美元指数价格最高攀升至98.636的位置，最低则下探至98.059位置，最终以98.561的价格收 盘。回顾周二市场整体表现，价格在早盘期间依托前一日凌晨回撤的低点位置震荡上涨，随后延续上涨状态，当天收盘在高位，日线大阳收尾。 从多周期分析，周线级别来看近期价格在周线关键上下盘整，目前周线支撑于97.90区域，后续持续关注价格周线收盘在此位置上方，一旦收盘在此位置上 方则后续将中线发力上涨。从日线级别看，随着时间的推移目前日线支撑于97.90区域，价格此位置之上波段进一步上涨。从四小时上看，在上周初价格承 压于四小时阻力位置，在上周四价格突破上涨，之后周五再度回踩至日线及四小时支撑，整体目前四小时支撑于98.40-50位置，价格在此位置之上短线维持 多。一小时上看目前价格测试到短线趋势线阻力区域，从空间上看价格均上涨150点后开始回撤修正，目前刚好空间到位，所以后续谨防调整，同时周一早 盘价格挑空缺口还没有回补，所以暂时关注四小时支撑得失，一旦下破关注回补缺口后再发力上涨，不破四小时支撑之前暂时维持多对待。 美指98.40-50区间多，防守5美金 ...

勒科尔尼在电视讲话中坦言："我无法履行总理职务，因为条件没有得到满足。"他还称，法国议会中的 其他政党未能作出必要妥协："我已准备好作出妥协，但每个政党都期待其他政党全盘接受其议程。" 勒科尔尼是马克龙在过去两年内任命的第五位总理，同时也成为自1958年第五共和国成立以来任期最短 的总理。事实上，自2024年法国提前举行大选后未能产生拥有绝对多数的政党后，法国政治运作长期陷 入瘫痪状态。 沙夫里克认为："政治问题意味着法国所面临的任何问题都将难以得到解决。" 据央视新闻，当地时间10月6日，法国总理勒科尔尼向总统马克龙递交辞呈，马克龙已接受辞呈。 就在前一晚，勒科尔尼刚刚完成其内阁部长成员的任命工作。此时，距离马克龙任命勒科尔尼为新任法 国总理的9月9日尚不足一个月。 原本计划于当地时间周二（10月7日）提交部长会议审议的法国国家预算草案，也因此打乱了时间表， 引发市场波动。截至第一财经记者发稿时，法国CAC40指数下跌1.5%，欧元兑美元汇率下挫0.66%。此 外，法国30年期政府债券收益率一度冲高至4.441%，创下一个月新高，之后略有回落。 是什么引发强烈反弹 对外经济贸易大学法国经济研究中心主任、巴黎 ...

Core Viewpoint - The election of Sanae Takaichi as Japan's first female Prime Minister is expected to bring significant changes to the economic landscape, with a potential return to "Abenomics" and a focus on inflation management [5][6]. Market Reactions - The Nikkei 225 index surged over 4%, surpassing the 47,800 mark, reaching a historical high, while the Tokyo Stock Exchange index rose approximately 3%, breaking the 3,220 points barrier [1]. - The Japanese yen is under significant pressure, with the USD/JPY exchange rate exceeding 150 [2]. Economic Policies - Takaichi's administration is anticipated to prioritize inflation issues, potentially increasing subsidies to local governments and considering a reduction in consumption tax [6][7]. - She has emphasized the need for close coordination between the government and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) regarding economic policies, criticizing the BOJ's interest rate hikes as "foolish" [8]. Market Expectations - Takaichi's stance has reinforced market expectations that the BOJ will maintain its accommodative monetary policy, leading investors to reassess their strategies regarding interest rate hikes [9]. - Barclays economists predict a decreased likelihood of the BOJ raising interest rates within 2025, suggesting that Takaichi's dovish tone may strengthen in the future [11][12]. Financial Market Dynamics - The Japanese financial market is entering a phase of rapid repricing, with expectations of a positive market response to Takaichi's fiscal policies [10][13]. - Analysts believe that her proactive fiscal stance could boost market confidence, leading to a rotation towards growth stocks in the domestic market [13].

随着被视为已故日本首相安倍晋三门徒的高市早苗赢得执政党党首选举，日本金融市场正迅速为"安倍经济学"的可能回归进行定价。 高市早苗即将成为日本新任首相，市场预期她将重启以大规模财政刺激和超宽松货币政策为核心的经济议程，这迅速点燃了日本股市，并引发了 外汇市场的剧烈波动。 周一东京市场开盘后，日经225指数应声大涨超过4%，创下数月来最大单日涨幅，日本东证指数涨3%。 与此同时，日元兑美元汇率大幅走弱1.5%，逼近150这一备受关注的关键水平。而日元兑欧元汇率已跌至历史新低。 "安倍经济学"继承者的政策蓝图 据央视新闻，当地时间10月4日，日本执政党自民党总裁选举结果揭晓，高市早苗击败小泉进次郎等多名竞争对手，成功当选自民党新一任总裁。 而高市早苗的经济政策主张带有鲜明的"安倍经济学"烙印。在当选后的新闻发布会上，她承诺将迅速采取措施应对通胀，政策选项包括增加对地 方政府的补贴，甚至不排除将消费税下调。 债券市场同样上演剧烈波动，对未来财政扩张的担忧推动长期利率走高，日本40年期国债收益率一度飙升14个基点至3.52%。 这些走势反映出投资者正在积极部署所谓的"高市早苗交易"（Takaichi trade）。华尔 ...

2025年的国庆长假，金融市场出奇的平静，平静得有些诡异，像暴风雨前的宁静，实则暗流涌动，一场 看不见的"憋气大赛"正在上演。 故事得从国庆前夕说起。华尔街的会议室里刚结束一场激烈的讨论，紧接着，美联储降息的消息便像一 枚重磅炸弹，在金融圈炸开了锅。平日里，降息往往会引发一系列连锁反应，但这一次，人民币汇率却 异常淡定，仿佛置身事外，这让原本期待"破6"的段子手们大跌眼镜。 深夜，各大财经群聊得热火朝天。"美联储暗示后续降息节奏放缓，别指望大力刺激了！"有人发截图佐 证。"又是放空炮，市场早有预期！" 另一位反驳。屏幕上，美元指数在97附近徘徊，四天小幅下跌， 像一个昏昏欲睡的老者。 9月30日，在岸人民币收盘价在7.12左右，波澜不惊。离岸人民币市场倒是略有起伏，三天内先涨后 跌，最高触及7.11，但总体走势平淡，缺乏大手笔交易，更像是在等待着什么。 一位在外汇市场摸爬滚打多年的朋友透露，假期期间，离岸市场并未完全休眠，外资小动作不断，但始 终没有掀起大的波澜，大家都紧盯着美联储的动向，生怕在这关键时刻踩错一步。 一家进出口企业的财务人员坦言："我们并不希望汇率剧烈波动，涨得太快会影响出口利润，跌得太狠 又 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that China's international balance of payments is expected to remain stable, with a reasonable equilibrium in the current account and a positive outlook for cross-border investment and financing [2]. Group 1: Current Account and Trade Performance - In the first half of 2025, China's current account surplus was $294.1 billion, remaining within a reasonable equilibrium range [4]. - Goods trade showed resilience, with total imports and exports increasing by 2% year-on-year, while service trade grew more actively, with service imports and exports rising by 6% [4]. - Goods exports reached $1.7 trillion, a 7% increase year-on-year, while imports were $1.2 trillion, a 4% decrease [4]. - Travel income surged by 42% to $24.3 billion, marking a historical high for the same period, while travel expenditure increased by 5% to $126.2 billion [4][5]. Group 2: Foreign Debt and Investment - As of June 2025, China's total external debt was $2.4368 trillion, a slight decrease of 0.6% from March 2025 [2]. - China's foreign financial assets and liabilities exceeded $11 trillion and $7.2 trillion, respectively, with net foreign assets growing by 16% compared to the end of 2024 [7]. - Direct investment in China accounted for 51% of total foreign liabilities, while securities investment made up 30%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points from the end of 2024 [7]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Policy Directions - The report anticipates that external conditions will remain complex, with potential pressures from trade protectionism and geopolitical risks [9]. - The foreign exchange management department plans to steadily expand reforms and open up the foreign exchange sector, aiming to support stable development of foreign trade and investment [10]. - Measures will include optimizing foreign exchange fund settlement for new foreign trade entities and enhancing the efficiency of service trade enterprises [10].

Dollar Index - The dollar index showed a downward trend on Monday, with a high of 98.159 and a low of 97.747, closing at 97.913 [1] - The key resistance level is at 98, and if the price stabilizes above this level, it may continue to rise; otherwise, there is a risk of further declines [1] - Weekly support is at 97.80, while daily support is at 97.60, indicating potential for further upward movement if these levels hold [1] Gold - Gold prices increased on Monday, reaching a high of 3834 and a low of 3757.76, closing at 3833.69, marking a new historical high [3] - The monthly trend remains bullish, with 3000 as a critical long-term support level; prices above this level indicate a long-term bullish outlook [3] - Short-term support is at 3805, and as long as prices remain above this level, the bullish trend is expected to continue [3] Euro/USD - The Euro/USD pair experienced an upward trend on Monday, with a low of 1.1697 and a high of 1.1754, closing at 1.1726 [5] - The monthly support level is at 1.1060, and the weekly support is at 1.1700, which is crucial for the medium-term outlook [5] - The price is currently under pressure at the daily resistance level of 1.1750, and if it breaks below the 1.1710 support, further declines may be expected [5]

| Un An Selli | | --- | | ABUBAP BALIP SOUNCE POINT | | Company of Children College of Children College of Children College of Children College of Children College of Children College of Children College of Children and Children a | 研究中心宏观团队 2025/09/30 | | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债收益率 | | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 2025/09/29 | 4.140 | 4.700 | 3.531 | 2.707 | 3.531 | 3.262 | 0.144 | 3.381 | | 最新变化 ...

Tabl e_Title 2025 年 9 月 29 日 大类资产运行周报（20250922-20250926） 美国通胀数据符合预期 大宗商品整体 上涨 风险提示：美国通胀数据改善不及预期 大类资产运行报告 全球主要资产表现 | | 近一周变动 | | --- | --- | | 新兴市场股市指数 | -1.14% | | Table_Fi rstSto ck 发达市场股市指数 主要资产涨跌幅表现 | -0.41% | | 全球债券指数 | -0.54% | | 全球国债指数 | -0.61% | | 全球信用债指数 姓名 | -0.44% 分析师 | | 美元指数 | 0.55% SAC 执业证书编号：S1111111111111 | | RJ/CRB 商品价格指数 | Xxxxxx @essence.com.cn 2.02% | | | 021-68767839 | | 标普高盛商品全收益指数 | 2.92% | 丁沛舟 高级分析师 期货从业资格号：F3002969 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012005 dingpz@essence.com.cn 010-58747724 资料来源：Wind 资讯 相关 ...