从夯到拉，给AI各环节排序 出品 | 妙投APP 作者 | 董必政 编辑 | 关雪菁 头图 | AI制图 | Wind代码 | 证券简称 | 2025年以来涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | | 8841914.WI | AI陪伴指数 | 25.79% | | 884169.WI | AIPC指数 | 26.82% | （数据来源：wind） 妙投认为，AI算力的超额收益的本质在于确定性，且不断超预期。 资本、企业敢于对当下及未来的AI算力基础设施建设的确定性进行押注。比如：政策推动GPU的国产替 代，北美四大云厂商、中国BAT等互联网企业加大资本开支的投入。 而2025年大模型厂商仍看不到盈利的希望，AI手机、AI眼镜等端侧产品销量不旺，这些并未让资本市场看 到投资的确定性。 不过，全球科技巨头的资本开支正处于一个高强度、高增长的周期，并且普遍预期这一轮针对AI等核心技 术的投资热潮在未来几年仍将持续。 那么，2026年AI投资主线会是什么呢？ 展望2026年，妙投认为AI算力仍具备很强的确定性，有望继续成为科技主线。 随着AI基础设施建设与迭代 升级，算力（GPU）、运力（光模块）、 ...

更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 2026 年通信投资机会梳理:算力为核,卫星为翼 20260104 摘要 Q&A 2026 年通信板块中有哪些值得关注的投资机会? 2026 年通信板块中,我们认为有五个方向具有较好的投资机会,分别是光互联、 商业航天、端侧 AI、液冷和光纤光缆。首先,光互联是我们持续推荐的方向, 其底层逻辑在于北美数据中心建设热情高涨,这将持续释放互联需求。预计 2026 年至 2027年,英伟达 GPU 和谷歌 TPU 等新型号芯片的需求将快速增长。此外, 从带宽扩展来看,光模块将从 800G 演进到 1.6T,新技术落地速度加快,如 OCS、 CPO 和 NPO 等新一代光互联方案将在 2026 年加速落地。 光互联板块未来两年的发展趋势如何? 光互联板块未来两年的发展趋势主要体现在两个方面:首先,带宽扩展趋势明确, 从 800G 演进到 1.6T 。市场对 800G 和 1.6T 的需求增长迅速,尤其在 2027 年 1.6T 争 匆 · 北美数据中心建设推动光互联需求,预计 2026-2027年英伟达 GPU 和谷歌 TPU 等芯片需求将快速增长,支撑 1. ...

紧缺物料卡位赛道。高速光模块需求的规模释放，对上游光芯片光器件等核心器件也将带来确定性较高 的需求增长，我们判断，由于扩产节奏的差异，关键物料或出现多阶段的供需错配状态，有望不断推高 板块景气度，建议关注源杰科技、仕佳光子、长光华芯、永鼎股份（600105）、德科立、腾景科技等 供应链潜在新玩家。更多速率、更多产品、更多客户需求释放的催化下，更多供应商有望切入北美CSP 大厂的核心供应链中，释放更大成长性，建议关注联特科技（301205）、炬光科技、长芯博创 （300548）、汇绿生态（001267）等。 商业航天进入发展快车道，建议重点关注通信相关方向。"十五五"规划建议将商业航天列为战略性新兴 产业，商业航天有望迎来黄金发展期。展望2026年行业将迎来多重催化，特别是多枚可回收/大载量的 商业火箭密集首飞，我们判断火箭运力将有望迎来显著提升，从而打通此前卫星通信发展的堵点。我国 低轨卫星互联网从2025年下半年已进入批量发射建设阶段，2026年有望迎来更大批量发射，产业发展进 一步加速。建议关注：信科移动、海格通信（002465）、通宇通讯（002792）、国博电子、陕西华达 （301517）、震有科技、 ...

2025年最后一个交易日，A股三大指数今日涨跌不一；截至收盘，沪指涨0.09%报3968点，深证成指跌0.58%，创业板指跌1.23%；2025年，上证指数、深证 成指、创业板指涨幅分别为18.41%、29.87%、49.57%。今日全市场成交额2.07万亿元，较前一交易日缩量956亿元，逾2700股下跌。 盘面上，卫星互联网板块爆发，中国卫星、中国卫通及航天电子等多股涨停；商业航天板块继续强势，久之洋、航天晨光等多股涨停；AI应用端集体走 高，Kimi概念、AI语料、智谱AI及Sora概念等涨幅居前，掌阅科技、蓝色光标等多股涨停；快手概念、航空机场、大飞机及6G概念等涨幅居前。另外，医 药商业板块下挫，鹭燕医药跌停；刀片电池板块走低，鹏辉能源领跌；液冷概念走势低迷，川润股份跌停；贵金属、噪声防治及船舶制造等板块跌幅居前。 (格隆汇) | 上证指数 | 深证成指 | 北证5C | | --- | --- | --- | | 3968.84 | 13525.02 | 1440.4 | | +3.72 +0.09% -79.04 -0.58% -10.21 -0 | | | | 科创50 | 创业板指 | 万得全 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the promising sectors in the technology industry for the upcoming year, highlighting the performance of various segments in 2023 and projecting growth opportunities for 2024 [1]. Group 1: Domestic Substitution Chain - The domestic substitution chain, particularly related to the Ascend industry chain, is expected to perform well next year, with companies experiencing significant stock price increases due to recent news [4]. - Confidence in the 950 series and other domestic AI chips like HWJ, Kunlunxin, and PPU is noted, with expectations for increased market share as domestic wafer production capacity and yield improve [4]. Group 2: Autonomous Driving - The autonomous driving sector is divided into Robotaxi and Robovan, with significant growth anticipated in both areas [5][6]. - Recent policy changes encouraging Level 3 autonomous driving indicate a supportive regulatory environment, which could lead to reduced costs and improved profitability for companies in this space [6][7]. Group 3: Aerospace - The aerospace sector is gaining attention, with government policies favoring its development. The success of rocket recovery technology could lead to numerous opportunities in satellite applications [8]. Group 4: Memory - The memory sector has seen a significant market rally, with expectations for the upcoming IPO of CX, which is projected to reach a trillion-dollar market value [9]. - The current market dynamics differ from previous years, with major manufacturers likely to maintain production levels to capitalize on profitability rather than rapidly expanding capacity [9]. Group 5: Liquid Cooling - The liquid cooling market is expected to grow 5-10 times next year, driven by increasing demand from chip manufacturers facing thermal management challenges [10][11]. - Innovations in liquid cooling technologies, such as multi-channel covers and immersion cooling, are being explored to enhance performance [11]. Group 6: AI Power - The AI power sector remains a focus, particularly in the context of stable and continuous power supply, which is more readily available in domestic markets compared to North America [12]. - Opportunities in AI power are identified in areas such as gas turbines and energy-efficient solutions for data centers, with a notable increase in interest in off-grid power technologies [12].

一、行情回顾 沪指全天窄幅震荡，创业板指走势稍强。机器人概念股集体爆发，步科股份、三花智控等近20股涨停。液冷服务器概念走高，统一股份涨停，鼎通科技等涨 超10%。AI智能体概念表现活跃，酷特智能、南兴股份等涨停。商业航天概念冲高回落，大业股份5连板，神剑股份跌停。个股跌多涨少，沪深京三市近 3500股飘绿，今日成交2.16万亿。 | 风口板块 更多 | | | | 涨跌幅榜 | 更多 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 机器人 | +1.41% | PTA +5.86% | 液冷服务器 +1.85% | PTA +5.86% | | | 行业独角兽迎来上市潮 | | PX、PTA价格创近一年新高 | 新型液冷机柜破解数据中心散热 | | | | 锋龙股份 +10.00% | | 恒逸石化 +10.02% | 能耗难题 统一股份 +10.01% | 人形机器人 +3.27% | | | | | | | 制冷剂 | | | | | | | +2.12% | | 二、当日热点 1.机器人 机器人板块今日继续爆发，锋龙股份、大业股份等5连板，天奇股份、泰尔股份4连板， ...

Core Viewpoint - The liquid cooling industry, while part of the computing ecosystem alongside optical modules and PCBs, has a less robust business model and profitability. However, it has significant potential for penetration, particularly in high-density AI clusters, where current overall penetration is low, projected to reach about 20%-25% by 2025 [1]. Group 1: Industry Overview - Optical modules and PCBs are essential components of server and switch infrastructure, with nearly 100% penetration rates, while liquid cooling is only a necessity in high-density AI clusters [1]. - The revenue recognition for optical modules and PCBs is quick and has a short cycle, whereas liquid cooling projects typically have a lag of over six months due to the need for infrastructure setup [1]. - The standardization and mass production of optical modules and PCBs lead to stable and high gross margins, while liquid cooling faces challenges due to customization and project-based sales, resulting in lower gross margins [2]. Group 2: Key Companies - **Inspur**: A leading domestic liquid cooling company with a comprehensive solution covering cold plates, CDU, and system integration, benefiting from partnerships with major players like NVIDIA and Intel. It is positioned to gain from the AI high-density computing cooling market, although its valuation may be stretched with a PB exceeding 30x [2]. - **Tongfei Co., Ltd.**: A specialized enterprise transitioning to data center liquid cooling, with a dual-path approach in cold plate and immersion cooling, aiming for significant growth in AI computing infrastructure and energy storage [3]. - **Yidong Electronics**: Entering the AI server liquid cooling market in 2024, it aims to integrate connectors and liquid cooling solutions, achieving significant revenue milestones in 2025 [4]. - **Dingtong Technology**: Focused on integrated connector and liquid cooling modules, it is set to ramp up production and gross margin potential in the coming years [5]. - **Siquan New Materials**: Specializing in high thermal conductivity materials for AI server cooling, it is expected to enter a critical phase of mass delivery and certification by 2025 [6]. - **Zhongshi Technology**: Engaged in thermal management materials and AI server cooling solutions, it is expanding its production capacity and is expected to see significant order and margin growth [7]. - **Feirongda**: With a focus on electromagnetic shielding and thermal management, it is positioned for significant delivery and expansion in the AI server cooling market [8]. - **Dongyangguang**: Following a comprehensive approach in liquid cooling, it is set to enter a critical phase of delivery and overseas expansion [9]. - **Juhua Co., Ltd.**: Leveraging its fluorochemical expertise, it is positioned as a key player in the liquid cooling market, focusing on domestic replacement and overseas expansion [10]. - **Qiangrui Technology**: Engaged in integrated solutions for testing equipment, it is expected to achieve significant breakthroughs in delivery and ecosystem integration by 2025 [11].

Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates a continuation of high demand for AI computing power in 2026, driven by both domestic and international investment opportunities in the computing power supply chain [21][23] - The investment strategy focuses on three main lines: embracing AI computing power, new productive forces, and core assets [21][22] Group 1: AI Computing Power Chain - The report predicts a significant increase in demand for 800G and 1.6T optical modules in 2026, benefiting leading manufacturers and upstream material suppliers [21][23] - Domestic liquid cooling manufacturers are expected to accelerate their international expansion, leveraging China's manufacturing advantages to gain market share [21][23] - The report highlights the importance of super nodes in bridging the performance gap between domestic and foreign computing cards, with 2026 projected as a pivotal year for domestic super node deployment [21][23] Group 2: Core Assets - Despite a slowdown in revenue growth for the three major domestic telecom operators, improved operational efficiency and declining capital expenditures are expected to support steady profit and dividend growth [22][21] - The telecom operators are positioned to play a crucial role in AI transformation across various industries, adhering to prudent investment and project evaluation principles [22][21] Group 3: Emerging Industries - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines significant investment opportunities in emerging sectors such as commercial aerospace, low-altitude economy, and quantum technology [22][21] - The commercial aerospace sector is expected to accelerate due to favorable policies, increasing launch frequencies, and technological advancements in reusable rocket technology [22][21]

证券分析师： 韩强 A0230518060003 屠亦婷 A0230512080003 王珂 A0230521120002 刘正 A0230518100001 马天一 A0230525040004 戴文杰 A0230522100006 黄莎 A0230522010002 武雨桐 A0230520090001 李蕾 A0230519080008 穆少阳 A0230524070009 刘宏达 A0230524020002 李冲 A0230524070001 联系人：何佳霖 A0230523080002 2025.12.29 核心观点 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 证 券 研 究 报 告 "制造强国"实干系列周报(12/28期) ◼ 商业航天：1）制造及发射端关注份额或价值量在降本趋势下有望维持相对稳定或具备提升潜力的核心标的；2）应用端关 注通信终端基带、射频芯片及相控阵天线配套标的；3）航天科技集团拥有较多体外资产，有较强并购重组预期。重点关注 标的：1）卫星载荷：航天电子+上海瀚迅+臻镭科技，2）卫星平台：上海港湾+航天智装+光威复材；2）应用终端：信 科移动+信维通信+通宇通讯， ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that the current market sentiment score is 67, categorizing it as "relatively hot," suggesting a strong investor confidence in the market [2][10] - Key themes identified include liquid cooling technology, banking stocks, and brokerage firms, each showing potential for investment opportunities [6] Market Sentiment - The market sentiment temperature indicator shows a score of 67, indicating a "relatively hot" market, with historical trends suggesting support when the score is below 30 and resistance when above 70 [10] - Recent market movements have led to a cautious sentiment, with the market entering a consolidation phase [10] Hot Themes Tracking 1. **Liquid Cooling Theme**: - Liquid cooling technology is gaining traction in data centers due to its higher cooling efficiency and lower Power Usage Effectiveness (PUE). Major AI companies are accelerating its adoption, with NVIDIA and Google increasing their chip production targets significantly [6] - Related stocks include Invec (002837) and Feilong Co., Ltd. (002536) [6] 2. **Banking Theme**: - Banking stocks are highlighted for their high dividend yields, with the China Securities Bank Index yielding 6.02%, significantly higher than the 10-year government bond yield. This makes them attractive for long-term investors amid economic slowdown [6] - Relevant stocks include Agricultural Bank of China (601288) and Ningbo Bank (002142) [6] 3. **Brokerage Theme**: - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is focusing on enhancing regulatory measures for quality institutions, which may lead to improved capital efficiency and a shift towards high-quality development in the brokerage sector [6] - Key stocks in this sector include CITIC Securities (600030) and Guotai Junan Securities (601211) [6] Capital Flow Analysis - The report provides insights into the net inflow and outflow of major funds, indicating significant net inflows for stocks like Sunshine Power (300274) and Aerospace Development (000547) [11] - Conversely, stocks such as Shenghong Technology (300476) and Zhongji Xuchuang (300308) experienced notable net outflows [12] Industry Overview - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring market sentiment and capital flows to identify potential investment opportunities and risks within various sectors [19] - The analysis of financing and margin trading activities provides insights into investor sentiment and market dynamics, highlighting the need for careful evaluation of market conditions [19]