1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides mid - term outlooks for various energy and chemical products, including "oscillating", "oscillating strongly", "oscillating weakly", etc., which can be used as a reference for the investment outlook of individual products [266]. 2. Core View of the Report - The energy and chemical sector is in a complex situation. Chemical products generally follow the strong trend of crude oil. The geopolitical risk between Iran and Israel has intensified, leading to increased volatility in crude oil prices, which in turn affects the prices of downstream chemical products [1][2]. - The overall outlook for the energy and chemical sector is a strong - oscillating trend, and a long - short allocation strategy is recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - On June 19, SC2508 closed at 570.9 yuan/barrel, up 3.29%, and Brent2508 closed at 78.74 dollars/barrel, up 3.5%. - Geopolitical concerns in the Middle East dominate short - term oil price fluctuations. Although there have been attacks on energy infrastructure, there has been no substantial impact on crude oil production. Oil prices are expected to oscillate with high volatility [6]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - The main asphalt futures closed at 3695 yuan/ton. Spot prices in East China, Northeast China, and Shandong were 3770 yuan/ton, 3990 yuan/ton, and 3800 yuan/ton respectively. - Due to the escalation of the Iran - Israel geopolitical situation, asphalt prices have a geopolitical premium. However, in the medium - long term, the increase in heavy oil supply will put pressure on the asphalt cracking spread. The absolute price of asphalt is overvalued [7]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The main high - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 3333 yuan/ton. - Geopolitical factors have led to a sharp increase in prices, but in the medium - long term, the increase in heavy oil supply will put pressure on the cracking spread. Overall, supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [8][9]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The main low - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 3921 yuan/ton. - It follows the trend of crude oil. Currently, it has a low valuation and is facing various negative factors such as weak shipping demand and green energy substitution. It is expected to fluctuate with crude oil [10]. 3.1.5 LPG - On June 19, 2025, the PG 2508 contract closed at 4513 yuan/ton, up 1.28%. - Driven by rising crude oil prices, the supply pressure has been relieved, and the chemical demand has recovered. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [10]. 3.1.6 PX - On June 19, the CFR price of PX in Taiwan, China was 904 (16) dollars/ton, and PX 2509 closed at 7094 (106) yuan/ton. - The supply capacity of Asian PX is increasing, and the support from the supply - demand fundamentals in China is weakening. Short - term fluctuations are mainly affected by crude oil. It is expected to be strong in the short term due to production cut news [12]. 3.1.7 PTA - On June 19, the spot price of PTA was 5175 (- 30) yuan/ton, and the spot processing fee was 269 (- 118) yuan/ton. - The supply - demand situation of PTA is weakening at the margin, and it follows the short - term trend of crude oil. It is expected to be strong in the short term following the cost side [12]. 3.1.8 Styrene - On June 19, the spot price of styrene in East China was 8050 (100) yuan/ton. - The future driving force is insufficient. The supply may increase, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate weakly [11][12]. 3.1.9 Ethylene Glycol (EG) - On June 19, the price of ethylene glycol increased, and the basis weakened. - It has a low - inventory pattern and is driven by rising crude oil prices. The weekly operating rate reached a five - year high. It is expected to oscillate strongly [14][15]. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - On June 19, the price of polyester short - fiber was 6800 (+ 55) yuan/ton. - The short - fiber industry has a good pattern. The rise in crude oil prices leads to a compensatory increase in the downstream industry chain. The processing fee has limited compression space. It is expected to oscillate strongly [15][16]. 3.1.11 Bottle Chip - On June 19, the price of polyester bottle chips increased with the rise of raw materials. - The processing fee is in an oscillating pattern. As production cuts are implemented, the processing fee is expected to expand. Long positions in the processing fee can be gradually arranged [17]. 3.1.12 Methanol - On June 19, the low - end spot price of methanol in Taicang was 2750 yuan/ton. - The situation in Iran provides short - term support. The inventory in ports has decreased, and coal prices have stabilized. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [20][21]. 3.1.13 Urea - On June 19, the low - end factory and market prices of urea were 1790 (+ 20) and 1820 (+ 0) respectively. - High supply continues, but the demand at home and abroad has started. The overseas supply is affected by geopolitics, leading to a sharp increase in overseas prices. It is expected to oscillate strongly [21]. 3.1.14 LLDPE (Plastic) - On June 19, the mainstream spot price of LLDPE was 7400 (20) yuan/ton. - Affected by the rise in oil prices, the short - term price has rebounded. However, the fundamentals are still under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [23]. 3.1.15 PP - On June 19, the mainstream transaction price of East China wire drawing was 7250 (30) yuan/ton. - Driven by the rise in oil prices and supported by methanol, the supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [24]. 3.1.16 PVC - On June 19, the benchmark price of PVC by calcium carbide method in East China was 4840 (+ 0) yuan/ton. - Affected by the rise in energy prices, but the fundamentals are still under pressure. The cost has increased, and it is expected to oscillate [26]. 3.1.17 Caustic Soda - On June 19, the price of 50% caustic soda in Shandong was 2760 (+ 0) yuan/ton. - The supply and demand are weak in June and July. The spot price is under pressure, and the futures price follows the production - cut logic. It is expected to operate weakly [27]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - The report provides data on the basis, change values, and warehouse receipts of various products such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. It also shows cross - variety spreads and their change values [28]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Although the report lists various products such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., no specific data or analysis content is provided in the given text.

Group 1: Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives mid - term outlooks for each energy and chemical product, including "strong", "oscillating strongly", "oscillating", "oscillating weakly", and "weak" [271]. Group 2: Core Views - The conflict between Israel and Iran remains undetermined, which may lead to the US joining the attack on Iran. The crude oil market is in a volatile situation, and the price increase on the 17th was accompanied by a rise in the monthly spread and a strong diesel crack spread. The chemical industry was driven by the rise in crude oil prices on the 18th, but there were also signs of negative feedback as downstream and terminal products did not follow the price increase strongly. The overall outlook for the energy and chemical sector is a strong - oscillating pattern with a focus on long - short configurations [2][3][4]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Crude Oil - On June 18, the SC2508 contract closed at 552.7 yuan/barrel, up 5.3%, and the Brent2508 contract closed at 76.08 US dollars/barrel, down 1.44%. EIA data showed a significant drawdown in US crude oil inventories last week, but a slight build - up in gasoline and diesel inventories. The refinery utilization rate decreased slightly. Geopolitical concerns in the Middle East are driving oil price fluctuations. The oil price is expected to oscillate in a high - risk stage [7]. LPG - The cost - side support has increased, and PG has rebounded following crude oil [4]. Asphalt - Due to the escalation of the geopolitical situation, asphalt has a geopolitical premium. The absolute price of asphalt is overestimated, and the monthly spread is expected to decline as the number of warehouse receipts increases [8]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - With the escalation of the geopolitical situation, high - sulfur fuel oil has a geopolitical premium. Overall, the supply is expected to increase and the demand to decrease, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [9][10]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The futures price of low - sulfur fuel oil has strengthened following crude oil. It is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand, and its valuation is low. It is expected to follow crude oil fluctuations [11]. Methanol - On June 18, the methanol futures price oscillated strongly. The situation in Iran provides short - term support. In 2024, China imported about 8 million tons of methanol from Iran, accounting for 60% of the total imports and about 8% of the total apparent consumption. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [19]. Urea - On June 18, the urea futures price closed at 1789 yuan/ton, up 0.85%. High supply continues, and the agricultural demand has not fully started. The industrial demand is weakening. Affected by the geopolitical conflict, the overseas urea price has risen sharply, driving up the domestic price. It is expected that the urea futures price will oscillate strongly [20]. Ethylene Glycol - On June 18, the price of ethylene glycol increased. The inventory is low, and the cost has increased due to the rise in crude oil prices. The upward movement is driven by crude oil, and it is expected to continue to oscillate strongly [15]. PX - On June 18, the CFR price of PX in Taiwan, China was 888.4 US dollars/ton. The supply and demand support has weakened, and the short - term trend depends on crude oil. Stimulated by the news of production cuts, it is short - term strong [12]. PTA - On June 18, the PTA spot price was 5205 yuan/ton. The supply is increasing and the demand is decreasing. It is expected to follow crude oil in the short term, and the PTA - crude oil position is mainly compressed [12]. Short - Fiber - The fundamentals of PF are showing marginal improvement signs. The supply pressure has decreased due to production cuts. The processing fee has limited compression space. The export growth rate in 2025 is considerable [16][17]. Bottle - Chip - On June 18, the spot processing fee was compressed to an extremely low value. More production cuts are expected to occur, and it is possible to gradually arrange long positions for the processing fee [18]. PP - On June 18, the PP futures price oscillated strongly. The cost is affected by crude oil, and the supply is increasing. The demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [24][25]. Plastic - On June 18, the LLDPE futures price oscillated strongly. It is affected by crude oil prices, and its own fundamentals are under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [23]. Styrene - On June 18, the spot price of styrene in East China was 7950 yuan/ton. The rebound driver is not sustainable, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [11][14]. PVC - The macro - level conflict between Israel and Iran has boosted PVC, but the fundamentals are under pressure due to new capacity releases, off - season demand, and weak export expectations. The dynamic cost has increased, and it is expected to oscillate [28]. Caustic Soda - In June, the supply and demand of caustic soda were both weak, and it is expected to be weak in July. The spot price is under pressure, and the futures price is based on the production cost. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 09 contract [29]. Group 4: Variety Data Monitoring Inter - Period Spread - The report provides inter - period spread data for various energy and chemical products, such as SC, WTI, Brent, etc., including the latest values and change values [30]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - It presents basis and warehouse receipt data for products like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., including the latest values, change values, and the number of warehouse receipts [31]. Inter - Variety Spread - The inter - variety spread data, including the latest values and change values, are given for different combinations of products such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc. [32].

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have led to a significant increase in gold prices, rising from 3400 to 3446, driven primarily by market sentiment and news events [2][3] - The gold market is expected to maintain a bullish trend, with key support levels at 3420 and 3380, indicating that as long as these levels hold, the bullish sentiment will persist [4] - The strategy for the upcoming week is to remain bullish on gold, focusing on low-entry positions while avoiding chasing highs, with a target of 3500 if the geopolitical situation escalates [2][5] Group 2: Silver Market Outlook - The silver market has shown a correction after reaching a peak of 37, with a recommendation to avoid chasing highs and consider light short positions around 36.5 [6] - The support level for silver is identified at 35.2, and a break below this level could indicate a shift in market sentiment [6] - Domestic silver prices should not be pursued above 9000, with a suggestion to consider short positions above 8900 to capture potential adjustments [6] Group 3: Oil Market Trends - The oil market has been on a strong upward trend, reaching a high of 77.5, with expectations for continued bullish momentum [7] - Key support levels for oil are set at 72 and 68, with a strategy to buy on dips as long as these levels hold [7] - Domestic fuel oil has also shown bullish behavior, with a recommendation to maintain long positions, targeting new highs above 3200 [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall energy and chemical sector is in a volatile trend. The downstream of the chemical industry is generally weak, with the terminal order index declining compared to May. The peak of supply - side maintenance was in May, and after destocking in May, the market frequently trades on the progress of device maintenance and restart. Currently, the maintenance schedule of a large refinery's reforming unit in East China is crucial. The energy and chemical sector should be treated with a volatile mindset [2]. - The geopolitical risk of crude oil is rising, and oil price fluctuations are intensifying. OPEC+ production increase and geopolitical uncertainties make the oil price at a high - risk stage [1][4]. - The overall supply - demand situation of various energy and chemical products is different. For example, LPG demand is still weak, asphalt is over - valued, and PTA supply increases while demand decreases [2][5][11]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market View - **Crude Oil**: On June 11, SC2507 closed at 478.1 yuan/barrel with a change of - 0.35%, and Brent2508 closed at 70.78 dollars/barrel with a change of + 6.28%. Geopolitical risks are rising, and the market is worried about direct military conflicts between the US, Israel and Iran. OPEC+ production increase makes the supply expected to be relatively excessive, and the oil price is in a high - risk stage, expected to fluctuate [4]. - **LPG**: On June 11, PG 2507 closed at 4130 yuan/ton with a change of + 0.27%. Domestic refinery maintenance is gradually restored, supply is increasing, and demand is weak. The upward rebound space is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [8][9]. - **Asphalt**: The main asphalt futures closed at 3483 yuan/ton. The asphalt price is over - valued, and the asphalt spread is expected to decline with the increase of warehouse receipts. The price is under pressure from factors such as increased heavy - oil supply and sufficient domestic raw material supply [4][5]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The main high - sulfur fuel oil closed at 2966 yuan/ton. Supply is increasing and demand is decreasing, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [5][7]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The main low - sulfur fuel oil closed at 3559 yuan/ton. It follows the crude oil to fluctuate, with weak supply - demand, and is expected to maintain a low - valuation operation [8]. - **Methanol**: On June 11, the methanol price fluctuated. The port inventory is gradually entering the accumulation cycle, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [17]. - **Urea**: On June 11, the urea factory - warehouse and market low - end prices were 1730 and 1740 yuan/ton respectively. The supply is strong and demand is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [17]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: On June 11, the ethylene glycol price fluctuated. The market trading logic is shifting, and it is recommended to wait and see. It has support at 4200 - 4300 yuan, and short - selling is not recommended [13]. - **PX**: On June 11, PX CFR China Taiwan was 812 dollars/ton. The cost - end guidance slows down, and the supply - demand game intensifies. It is expected to continue to consolidate [10]. - **PTA**: On June 11, the PTA spot price was 4820 yuan/ton. Supply increases and demand decreases, and the market price is expected to fluctuate weakly [11]. - **Styrene**: On June 11, the East China styrene spot price was 7720 yuan/ton. Driven by the macro - meeting and device rumors, it rebounds, but the subsequent driving force is insufficient, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [11]. - **Short - Fiber**: On June 9, the direct - spinning polyester short - fiber followed the raw materials to fluctuate. The supply - side pressure is relieved, and the processing fee compression space is limited. It is expected to be dominated by macro - negative factors [14][15]. - **Bottle - Chip**: On June 11, the polyester bottle - chip factory price was mostly stable. The low processing fee continues, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 300 - 400 yuan/ton [15][16]. - **PP**: On June 11, the East China wire - drawing mainstream transaction price was 7050 yuan/ton. The cost - end support marginally rebounds, but the supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [20]. - **Plastic**: On June 11, the LLDPE spot mainstream price was 7150 yuan/ton. The cost - end support marginally rebounds, but the supply pressure is high, and the demand is weak. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [19]. - **PVC**: On June 11, the East China calcium - carbide - method PVC benchmark price was 4790 yuan/ton. The short - term sentiment warms up, and it rebounds weakly. In the long - term, the supply - demand is pessimistic, and the price is under pressure [22]. - **Caustic Soda**: On June 11, the Shandong 32% caustic soda converted to 100% price was 2719 yuan/ton. The spot price has peaked, and it is recommended to short on rallies. The 09 - contract fundamental expectation is pessimistic [22]. 2. Variety Data Monitoring (1) Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of various varieties such as SC, WTI, Brent, etc. have different changes. For example, SC's M1 - M2 spread is 5 with a change of 1, and WTI's M1 - M2 spread is 1.09 with a change of 0.02 [23]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipt data of various varieties are provided. For example, the asphalt basis is 259 with a change of 17, and the warehouse receipt is 91510 [24]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads of pairs such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc. are presented with their corresponding changes [25]. (2) Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - The data for specific chemical products such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc. are mentioned, but detailed data are not fully provided in the summary part [26][38][50].

Group 1 - The news regarding the reduction of tariffs between China and the US has led to significant market reactions, with the US dollar index surging to around 101.7 and gold dropping by $80 to a low near $3207 [4] - Despite the large drop in gold prices, it did not break the key support level of $3200, indicating that the bearish sentiment may not be strong enough to sustain a downward trend [4][5] - The domestic gold market has also experienced considerable volatility, with recommendations to avoid trading in certain contracts due to uncertainty, while focusing on potential support levels around $760 for domestic gold [6] Group 2 - The international silver market showed a decline but did not exhibit sustained bearish momentum, with a rebound observed after hitting a low of $31.8, maintaining support above $32 [6] - Domestic silver has been fluctuating within a small range, with a recent drop to $8180 but still closing above $8200, suggesting a continuation of the bullish trend [7] - The oil market has shown a strong upward trend, with prices reaching a high of $63.5, and expectations for further increases towards $64.5 and $66, indicating a bullish outlook for the week [7][8]