[Table_Page] 金融工程|量化投资专题 2026 年 1 月 23 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 业绩预告与行业表现呈现分化 量化基本面系列之三 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： （如无特别说明，本文数据均来源于 wind，数据截至 2026/01/23） 2025 年业绩预告披露类型 | 业绩预告类型 | 公司数量 | 占比 | | --- | --- | --- | | 不确定 | 5 | 0.7% | | 扭亏 | 58 | 8.1% | | 略减 | 17 | 2.4% | | 略增 | 45 | 6.3% | | 续亏 | 247 | 34.4% | | 续盈 | 6 | 0.8% | | 预减 | 64 | 8.9% | | 预增 | 180 | 25.1% | | 首亏 | 95 | 13.2% | | 积极 | 289 | 40.3% | 数据来源：Wind，广发证券发展研究中心 2025 年业绩预告/快报/正式财报 | | 业绩预告/快报/ | 业绩预告/快报/ | 归母净利润 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 申万一级行业 | ...

强于大市(维持) 证券研究报告|商贸零售 [Table_Title] 12 月社零总额同比+0.9%，已连续 7 个月增 速环比下降 [Table_ReportType] ——2025 年 12 月社零数据跟踪报告[Table_ReportDate] [投资要点： Table_Summary] 总体：2025 年 12 月社零同比+0.9%，增速同比、环比均下降。2025 年 12 月我国社会消费品零售总额 45,136 亿元，同比增长 0.9%， 较去年同期增速下降 2.8pcts，较 11 月增速环比下降 0.4pcts， 并且自 2025 年 6 月以来已经连续 7 个月增速环比下降。12 月我 国 CPI 同比+0.8%，较 11 月的+0.7%增加 0.1pcts。①商品和餐饮 零售增速环比均下降。2025 年 12 月商品零售同比+0.7%，较 11 月 增速环比-0.3pcts；餐饮收入同比+2.2%，较 11 月增速环比- 1.0pcts。限上企业商品零售额同比-2.00%，较 11 月增速环比 +0.2pcts。②按地区分类：城镇与乡村社零增速均下降，乡村增 速高于城镇。12 月城镇消费品零 ...

周四 A 股三大指数集体收涨，截止收盘，沪指收涨 0.14%，深成指收 涨 0.5%，创业板指收涨 1.01%。沪深两市成交额 26914.89 亿元。申 万行业方面，建筑材料、国防军工、石油石化领涨，美容护理、银行、 医药生物领跌；概念板块方面，国产航母、可燃冰、成飞概念涨幅居 前，科创次新股、光刻胶、国家大基金持股跌幅居前。港股方面，恒 生指数收涨 0.17%，恒生科技指数收涨 0.28%；海外方面，美国三大 指数集体收涨，道指收涨 0.63%，标普 500 收涨 0.55%，纳指收涨 0.91%。 【重要新闻】 【央行行长潘功胜表示，2026 年将继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策， 灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政策工具，保持流动性充裕，今年 降准降息还有一定的空间】要继续维护好金融市场的平稳运行。做好 预期管理，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。加强债券 市场、外汇市场、货币市场、票据市场、黄金市场监督管理。建立在 特定情景下向非银机构提供流动性的机制性安排。继续用好支持资本 市场的两项货币政策工具，支持资本市场稳定发展。 市 场 研 究 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_Mee ...

融资担保比例提高后，交易型资金如何反应？ ——资金行为研究双周报（2026/01/09-2026/1/22） 证券研究报告/策略定期报告 2026 年 01 月 23 日 分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 Email：xuchi@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740522050001 Email：wangyj09@zts.com.cn 1、《A H 股市场周度观察（1 月第 2 周）》2026-01-17 2、《从春节到两会，市场轮动的节奏 将如何演绎？》2026-01-17 3、《开年市场新高后或如何演绎？》 2026-01-11 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 策略定期报告 报告摘要 分析师：王永健 市场资金流向概览：机构流出动能阶段性收敛，市场共识重新凝聚。1 月 12 日后机构 资金流出一度加速，但于 20 日后趋于收敛；散户资金对全 A 及创业板的流入在高位 后亦于 14 日起斜率放缓。全 A 与创业板资金加速度在 13 日及 21 日前后出现剧烈波 动，显示存量博弈依然活跃。截至 1 月 22 日，三大指数散户与机构净流入率差额显 著收窄并向零轴收敛，市场进入力 ...

（原标题：*ST亚振涨2.64%，股价创历史新高） *ST亚振股价创出历史新高，截至9:36，该股上涨2.64%，股价报50.49元，成交量17.18万股，成交金额 860.31万元，换手率0.07%，该股最新A股总市值达132.66亿元，该股A股流通市值132.66亿元。 证券时报•数据宝统计显示，*ST亚振所属的轻工制造行业，目前整体跌幅为0.62%，行业内，目前股价 上涨的有34只，涨幅居前的有嘉美包装、太力科技、上海艾录等，涨幅分别为5.23%、3.77%、3.58%。 股价下跌的有129只，跌幅居前的有康欣新材、菲林格尔、创源股份等，跌幅分别为9.96%、3.46%、 3.29%。 公司发布的三季报数据显示，前三季度公司共实现营业收入1.58亿元，同比增长4.20%，实现净利 润-3141.23万元，同比增长41.15%，基本每股收益为-0.1200元。（数据宝）注：本文系新闻报道，不构 成投资建议，股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 ...

2025年轻工板块指数收益率为+20.88%，相较于沪深300超额收益为0.31%。从个股来看，2025年轻工板 块涨幅靠前的多数为转型或重组概念个股，业绩驱动股价上涨&估值合理的仅为匠心家居（301061）。 从2025年前三季度财务表现看，轻工制造行业经营仍有压力，其中包装个护稳增、家居造纸承压、出口 分化。 展望2026年：该行建议把握出口阿尔法、稳健增长、低位消费三条投资主线 华福证券发布研报称，在近年国内外宏观经济和贸易环境波动的背景下，轻工企业的商业模式加速迭 代、业绩表现分化加大，后续建议研究寻找企业的阿尔法。出口该行持续看好具备高壁垒&全球产能布 局领先的企业，有望在全球供应链重构过程中迎来份额加速提升。内需消费和周期子行业虽业绩承压， 但该行认为目前行业景气度已处于历史底部，龙头公司深挖存量、创新增量，展现更强经营韧性；未来 随着国内消费环境回暖，内需子行业景气有望逐步回升，份额进一步向头部集中。 华福证券主要观点如下： 2025年回顾：轻工指数跑输大盘、板块业绩承压，其中包装个护稳增 1）出口阿尔法：我国优质出口制造企业从早期产品出海，逐步向产能出海、品牌出海升级，美国降息 利好26年美国 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The secondary - market trends of industrial bond sub - industries show a divergence in the correlation between primary and secondary markets. This divergence may be due to differences in supply among industries and differences in bond liquidity and trading popularity within each industry. If an industry has many issuing entities with strong willingness and ability to issue bonds and is in a good development trend, the probability of a synchronous resonance relationship between primary - market supply and secondary - market demand is relatively high, which can improve the accuracy of judging trading signals of narrowing spreads from daily net financing [1][14]. - Most industries have trading signals transmitted from primary - market supply to secondary - market demand, including comprehensive, non - ferrous metals, and others. Some industries show a stronger negative correlation between primary - market supply and secondary - market demand, such as comprehensive and non - ferrous metals. Some industries have a weak correlation between daily net financing and daily spreads, including communication and food and beverage [2][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Industrial Bond Sub - industries Show Divergence in Primary - Secondary Market Trend Correlation - **Research Method**: Classify industrial bond issuers by Shenwan primary industries, calculate the daily net financing and daily credit spreads of each sub - industry from January 1, 2025, to December 19, 2025, to observe the correlation between primary - market supply and secondary - market demand [12]. - **Divergence Performance**: Most industries have trading signals transmitted from primary - market supply to secondary - market demand, while some do not show this feature significantly [13]. - **Reasons for Divergence**: Differences in supply among industries are related to the number, size, and life - cycle stage of issuing entities. Differences in bond liquidity and trading popularity within industries are related to the scale of outstanding bonds, valuation levels, and event catalysts [14]. 1.1. Industries with Obvious Correlation - **Comprehensive Industry**: From January to March 2025, daily net financing decreased and daily spreads increased; from March to June, daily net financing increased and daily spreads decreased; from June to December, both were in a low - level oscillation [21]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Industry**: From January to July 2025, daily net financing increased and daily spreads decreased; from July to September, daily net financing decreased and daily spreads increased; from October to December, both were in a low - level oscillation [25]. - **Other Industries**: Similar analysis is conducted for industries such as pharmaceutical biology, social services, and others, with different trends in different time intervals [27][30][32]. - **Common Features**: These industries generally have a large scale of outstanding bonds and high institutional investor attention, which is conducive to the transmission of primary - market supply changes to secondary - market spread changes [3][87]. 1.2. Industries with General Correlation - **Industries Included**: Communication, food and beverage, and other industries have a weak correlation between daily net financing and daily spreads, and the linkage and transmission between primary - and secondary - market indicators are relatively weak [4][13]. - **Reasons**: These industries have low participation in the bond market, and their secondary - market trading demand is more affected by overall bond - market trends, industry risk premiums, and liquidity premiums. Different types of industries have specific reasons for the weak correlation [4][90][91].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.73% as of 10:27 AM, with a trading volume of 783.95 million shares and a transaction value of 1,378.36 billion yuan, an increase of 0.13% compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - Real estate, oil and petrochemicals, and beauty care sectors showed the highest gains, with increases of 0.86%, 0.72%, and 0.70% respectively [1] - The defense and military, comprehensive, and communication sectors experienced the largest declines, with decreases of 3.41%, 3.19%, and 3.06% respectively [1][2] Leading Stocks - In the real estate sector, Chengdu Investment Holdings led with a gain of 10.11% [1] - In the oil and petrochemical sector, Blue Flame Holdings increased by 2.86% [1] - In the beauty care sector, Yanjiang Co. rose by 9.34% [1] Detailed Industry Data - Real Estate: 0.86% increase, transaction value of 189.40 billion yuan, up 20.93% from the previous day [1] - Oil and Petrochemicals: 0.72% increase, transaction value of 80.28 billion yuan, up 26.01% from the previous day [1] - Beauty Care: 0.70% increase, transaction value of 35.84 billion yuan, up 11.01% from the previous day [1] - Defense and Military: 3.41% decrease, transaction value of 883.06 million yuan, up 45.81% from the previous day [2] - Communication: 3.06% decrease, transaction value of 754.04 million yuan, up 0.40% from the previous day [2]

Group 1 - On January 19, a total of 14 companies were investigated by institutions, with 8 companies being surveyed by funds [1] - Shu Dao Equipment received the most attention, with 4 funds participating in the survey, while Mingyang Electric and Ruipu Biotech had 3 and 2 funds respectively [1] - Among the surveyed companies, there is 1 company from the main board, 6 from the ChiNext board, and 1 from the Sci-Tech Innovation board [1] Group 2 - The total market capitalization of the surveyed A-share companies includes 1 company with a market cap over 50 billion yuan and 5 companies with a market cap below 10 billion yuan, including Tianlu Technology and Shu Dao Equipment [1] - In terms of market performance, 6 of the surveyed stocks increased in the past 5 days, with the highest gains seen in Shiji Information (21.98%), Tianlu Technology (11.08%), and Mingyang Electric (6.95%) [1] - Conversely, 2 stocks experienced declines, with Longxin Technology and Shu Dao Equipment showing the largest drops of 9.72% and 4.68% respectively [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market showed mixed performance with significant gains in the basic chemical, electric equipment, and automotive sectors, while the Hong Kong market experienced a decline in major indices [1][2][7]. A-share Market Performance - The basic chemical sector led the gains with an increase of over 2%, featuring stocks like Li Er Chemical (002258), Evergrande High-tech (002591), and Double Star New Materials (002585) hitting the daily limit [2][3]. - Electric equipment stocks also surged, with the sector's increase exceeding 2%, and notable performers included Shuangjie Electric (300444) and Taisheng Wind Power (300129), both showing gains of over 10% [4]. - The automotive sector saw a rise close to 2%, with stocks such as Superjet (301005) and Kabeiyi (300863) achieving gains exceeding 10% [5]. Hong Kong Market Performance - The Hong Kong market was generally sluggish, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Technology Index both dropping over 1% [7]. - Notable gainers included companies like Li Ning and Mengniu Dairy, while WuXi Biologics and Innovent Biologics faced significant declines [8]. - The stock of Qutoutiao surged over 20% following a positive earnings forecast, projecting a turnaround to profitability in 2025 [9][10]. Company-Specific Highlights - Qutoutiao expects a net profit between RMB 270 million and RMB 330 million for 2025, driven by increased investment in AI and operational efficiency improvements [10]. - TCL Electronics anticipates a significant increase in adjusted net profit for 2025, projected between HKD 2.33 billion and HKD 2.57 billion, representing a growth of 45% to 60% compared to 2024 [11].