报 告 正 文 对等关税暂缓继续延期，是特朗普的缓兵之计。 对等关税原暂缓至7月9日执行，但由于美国仅与个别经济体 达成贸易协议，同时无法承担全面加征关税的代价。于是在新一轮名单出炉的同时，特朗普宣布将对等关税暂 缓期延长至8月初，中国对应的关税暂缓则在8月上旬到期。 除巴西、加拿大和墨西哥外，2.0版本较初版差别不大。 对于暂未达成协议的部分国家（主要集中在亚洲）， 特朗普公布了新一轮的关税标准，其中计划对墨西哥和加拿大加征在30%以上，巴西由10%大幅提升至50%， 欧盟由20%提升至30%，但多数经济体相较4月初版变动不大或小幅下调，大型经济体如日韩加征25%，其他国 家地区在25%-40%不等。 为何公布这些经济体名单？ 本次名单主要包括此前谈判进展不大或仍未开启谈判的国家，更多意在施压对 手；而对于基本协议有进展的国家，如中国、英国和越南，后续或按协议计划实行。 各经济体关税如何加？ 考虑到谈判难易和经济成本，对于 大型经济体 而言，10-20%关税可能是最终加征的幅 度。而对美贸易逆差较大的 中小型经济体 ，可以参考特朗普声称的美越初步协议，即20%的直接进口关税和 40%的转口关税。 不过理论上 ...

Group 1 - The recent surge in the A-share market indicates the confirmation of a bull market, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through previous high points and showing significant trading volume, suggesting a recovery from earlier declines [1][8][6] - The impact of tariffs announced by Trump is viewed as limited, with historical examples indicating that trade wars do not significantly affect economic performance, as seen during the 1930 trade war [1][17][20] - The bull market is expected to generate three wealth effects: stabilizing expectations, supporting consumption, and restoring financing functions, with increased retail participation in the stock market [1][25][39] Group 2 - Historical analysis shows that sectors tend to rotate after new highs, with financials, cyclical resources, and military industries frequently leading the market, while manufacturing and consumer sectors rely more on their own trends [2][43][44] - Potential rotation directions in the current market include non-bank financials and cyclical resource sectors, with expectations for real estate stabilization being crucial for economic recovery [3][7] - The report highlights that the current bull market is characterized by a significant inflow of funds into the stock market, driven by increased retail investor activity and policy support [1][25][39]

Q&A 财报季如何把握投资机会？20250613 特朗普政府最新的关税政策对全球市场的影响如何？ 摘要 特朗普政府的关税政策包括对等关税、232 行业调查和反倾销关税，服 务于不同目的，未来谈判进展及下调可能性各不相同。对等关税方面， 美国灵活处理，旨在加速经贸谈判，而非实质性落地高额关税。 232 行业调查涉及铜、钢铁、铝、汽车等十大类产品，加征 25%-50% 关税，总规模约 3,000-4,000 亿美元。新一轮调查涉及铜、木材、半导 体等，规模约 6,500 亿美元，占总进口 20%，这些产品更可能通过单 一国家让步获得豁免。 美国以芬太尼为由对中国加征 20%关税，对加拿大和墨西哥加征 25%。符合 USMAC 协议的加墨产品可部分减免。芬太尼关税旨在打压 中国制造业，并作为中美谈判筹码。 美国关税政策对中国制造业的影响体现在对等关税、232 行业关税和芬 太尼关税上。232 关税服务于制造业回流政策，难以通过国与国谈判豁 免，可能先加征再谈判。中美围绕禁毒合作出现积极信号，8 月或有进 一步磋商。 光大证券策略组预测，2025 年中报季轻工制造、有色金属、非银金融、 电子、社会服务行业净利润增速预 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights a trend of decreasing shareholder accounts among 140 companies, indicating a concentration of shares, with some companies experiencing declines for over three consecutive periods [1][2]. Group 1: Shareholder Account Trends - 25 companies have reported a continuous decrease in shareholder accounts for more than three periods, with the most significant decline being 13 periods for Kangxin New Materials, which saw a total decrease of 32.69% [1]. - Zhongyuan Media has also experienced a decline for 8 periods, with a total decrease of 28.71%, while other companies like Fuwei Co., and Western Construction have also shown similar trends [1]. Group 2: Market Performance - Among the companies with decreasing shareholder accounts, 23 have seen their stock prices rise, while only 1 has declined, with Zhongyuan Media, China Nonferrous Metal, and Jiangsu Shentong showing notable increases of 15.83%, 15.40%, and 10.84% respectively [2]. - 15 out of these 23 companies outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with excess returns of 11.70% for China Nonferrous Metal, 8.71% for Zhongyuan Media, and 7.14% for Jiangsu Shentong [2]. Group 3: Institutional Interest - In the past month, 4 companies with decreasing shareholder accounts have been frequently researched by institutions, with Jiangsu Shentong and China Nonferrous Metal receiving 3 and 2 institutional inquiries respectively [2]. - The companies with the highest number of institutional participants include Jiangsu Shentong with 23 institutions, followed by Fuwei Co. with 5, and Zhejiang Zhengte with 3 [2].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.36% as of the morning close, with a trading volume of 783.11 million shares and a transaction amount of 934.47 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.50% compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - Real estate, banking, and oil & petrochemicals sectors showed the highest gains, with increases of 1.53%, 1.42%, and 1.23% respectively [1] - The automotive, defense, and electronics sectors experienced the largest declines, with decreases of 0.93%, 0.92%, and 0.76% respectively [2] Leading Stocks - In the real estate sector, Yuhua Development led with a gain of 9.94% [1] - In the banking sector, Minsheng Bank rose by 5.12% [1] - In the oil & petrochemicals sector, *ST Xinchao increased by 5.08% [1] - In the steel sector, Jinling Mining surged by 10.02% [1] - In the non-bank financial sector, Nanhua Futures also rose by 10.02% [1] - In the pharmaceutical sector, Qianyuan Pharmaceutical saw a significant increase of 19.98% [1] Sector Summary - The real estate sector had a transaction amount of 117.03 billion yuan, up 26.74% from the previous day [1] - The banking sector recorded a transaction amount of 266.82 billion yuan, up 36.61% [1] - The oil & petrochemicals sector had a transaction amount of 80.95 billion yuan, up 36.47% [1] - The automotive sector had a transaction amount of 389.36 billion yuan, down 16.50% [2] - The defense sector recorded a transaction amount of 316.85 billion yuan, down 23.79% [2] - The electronics sector had a transaction amount of 1,036.63 billion yuan, down 10.88% [2]

Group 1 - A total of 18 companies listed on the ChiNext board have released their performance forecasts for the first half of the year, with 13 companies expecting profit increases, 1 company expecting to turn a profit, 1 company expecting a profit decrease, and 1 company expecting a loss [1][3] Group 2 - The performance forecast details include various companies with significant expected profit growth, such as: - Hanyu Pharmaceutical (300199) with a projected profit increase of 1567.36% [2] - Chuanjin Nuo (300505) with a projected profit increase of 167.27% [2] - Chenguang Biotech (300138) with a projected profit increase of 117.36% [2] - Huizhong (300371) with a projected profit increase of 100.00% [2] - Taotao Automotive (301345) with a projected profit increase of 84.08% [2] Group 3 - Companies with performance forecasts indicating a decrease or loss include: - Zairun (301636) with a projected profit decrease of 5.43% [2] - Yuyou Green Energy (301590) with a projected profit decrease of 6.57% [2] - Juguang (300203) with a projected loss of 205.37% [2]

2025年5月16日，证监会资产重组新规落地 ，明确"允许未盈利硬科技资产注入上市公司"——这是继科 创板"科八条"、地方百亿并购基金后，政策层面对并购重组的又一次强力刺激。 回顾近年数据可以看出， 并购市场热度持续升温 ，企业关注度、参与度逐渐提高： " 1、并购重组市场形势 | 并购六条导向 | 行业 | 2024年平均并购金额(亿元) | 较近 10年均值增幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向新质生产力转型升级 | 国防车工 | 575.75 | 495.02 | | | 轻工制造 | 133.51 | 420.03 | | | 传 娱 | 147.46 | 179.31 | | | 计算机 | 34.23 | 42.67 | | | 医药生物 | 33.62 | 40.48 | | | 汽车 | 34.48 | 21.02 | | 加强产业整合 | 非银金融 | 374.54 | 234.08 | | | 纺织服饰 | 73.73 | 113.98 | | | 商贸零售 | 101.25 | 111.79 | | | 父通运输 | 147.46 | 61.12 | ...

Group 1 - The latest financing balance of the ChiNext market is 360.094 billion yuan, with a week-on-week increase of 0.882 billion yuan. Among the stocks, 26 have seen financing balances increase by over 10%, while 11 stocks experienced a decline of over 10% [1][2] - On July 7, the ChiNext index fell by 1.21%, with a total margin balance of 361.141 billion yuan, an increase of 0.877 billion yuan from the previous trading day. The financing balance reached 360.094 billion yuan, up 0.882 billion yuan from the previous day [1][2] - The stock with the largest increase in financing balance is Jialian Technology, which saw a financing balance of 31.1503 million yuan, a week-on-week increase of 54.91%, and its stock price rose by 19.98% on the same day [1][3] Group 2 - Among the stocks with significant financing balance increases, 14 stocks had net inflows of main funds on July 7, with the highest net inflows recorded for Shaanxi Huada, Jialian Technology, and Xinlei Co., amounting to 43.5309 million yuan, 42.3161 million yuan, and 36.8185 million yuan respectively [2][4] - Conversely, 12 stocks experienced net outflows, with the largest outflows seen in Changliang Technology, Longyang Electronics, and Nanling Technology, with outflows of 118 million yuan, 87.4527 million yuan, and 72.5194 million yuan respectively [2][4] Group 3 - A total of 439 stocks saw a decrease in financing balance, with 11 stocks experiencing declines of over 10%. The stock with the largest decline is Hairong Technology, with a financing balance of 55.2004 million yuan, down 27.15% [4][5] - Other notable declines include Nanwang Technology and Tongguan Copper Foil, with financing balances decreasing by 23.81% and 22.78% respectively [4][5]

证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 07 月 08 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 07 月 08 日 ：王禾 执业证书编号：S1230512110001 ：021-80105901 ：wanghe@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 重要观点 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 大势：7 月 7 日上证指数上涨 0.02%，沪深 300 下跌 0.43%，科创 50 下跌 0.66%，中证 1000 上涨 0.24%，创业板 指下跌 1.21%，恒生指数下跌 0.12%。 行业：7 月 7 日表现最好的行业分别是综合（+2.57%)、公用事业（+1.87%)、房地产（+1.68%)、轻工制造（+1.52%)、 环保（+1.1%)，表现最差的行业分别是煤炭（-2.04%)、医药生物（-0.97%)、通信（-0.77%)、家用电器（-0.7%)、 电子（-0.67%)。 资金：7 月 7 日全 A 总成交额为 12271 亿元，南下资金净流入 120.67 亿港元。 7 月 7 日表现最好的行业分别是综合（+2.57%)、公用事业（+1. ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is positive, indicating a favorable outlook for the sector, with a focus on companies with stable performance and reasonable valuations [35]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the North Exchange 50 Index experienced a slight decline of 1.71% this week, closing at 1415.04 points, while the average market capitalization of A-share constituent stocks is 3.083 billion [5][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on quality stocks with stable growth and reasonable valuations in the North Exchange, particularly in the context of the 2025 investment landscape [5]. Summary by Sections Overall Market Overview - As of July 4, 2025, the North Exchange A-share market consists of 268 stocks, with an average market capitalization of 3.083 billion. The North Exchange 50 Index saw a decline of 1.71% this week, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index increased by 1.54% [5][11]. - The average daily trading volume for the North Exchange 50 was 27.983 billion, down 17.81% from the previous week, with a turnover rate of 3.18% [5][24]. Stock and Industry Performance - In the past week, 50 stocks increased in value, while 217 stocks decreased, resulting in an increase ratio of 18.66%, which is a decrease of 74.63 percentage points week-on-week [17]. - The top five performing industries were Beauty Care (8.60%), Light Industry Manufacturing (1.9%), Pharmaceutical Biology (1.57%), Transportation (0.60%), and Environmental Protection (0.47%). Conversely, the bottom five industries included Electronics (-4.86%), Automotive (-4.58%), Communications (-3.92%), Media (-3.88%), and Public Utilities (-3.22%) [19][22]. New Stock Updates - No new stocks were listed on the North Exchange this week, but one company, Jinhua New Materials, passed the review for listing, while another, Beikang Testing, is scheduled for review next week [28][29]. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - The report identifies key companies to watch, including: - Tongli Co., Ltd. (stock code: 834599.BJ) with a buy rating and an expected EPS of 1.99 for 2025 [6]. - Wuxin Tunnel Equipment (stock code: 835174.BJ) also rated as buy with an expected EPS of 1.64 for 2025 [6]. - Kaide Quartz (stock code: 835179.BJ) rated as hold with an expected EPS of 1.03 for 2025 [6]. - Hualing Co., Ltd. (stock code: 430139.BJ) rated as hold with an expected EPS of 0.34 for 2025 [6]. - Hengtou Open Source (stock code: 834415.BJ) rated as hold with an expected EPS of 0.22 for 2025 [6]. - Tianli Composite (stock code: 873576.BJ) rated as buy with an expected EPS of 1.03 for 2025 [6].