Core Insights - The report highlights the successful trial of brain-machine interfaces for restoring paralysis, indicating advancements in domestic core technology and potential investment opportunities in related stocks such as Innovation Medical and Sanbo Brain Science [7] - The Democratic Republic of the Congo has extended its ban on raw material exports for three months, which is expected to elevate cobalt prices, presenting investment prospects in companies like Huayou Cobalt and Tengyuan Mining [7] - Huawei's patent for "four-chip packaging" has drawn attention to advanced packaging materials, with potential implications for stocks like Feikai Materials and Debang Technology [7] Industry Dynamics - The report notes the successful trial of brain-machine interfaces, which could lead to significant advancements in medical technology and related investments [7] - The extension of the cobalt export ban in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is likely to impact global cobalt prices, creating opportunities for investment in mining companies [7] - The exposure of Huawei's advanced packaging technology may influence the semiconductor and materials sectors, highlighting potential growth areas for investors [7] Company Focus - Cangge Mining plans to sign a financial services agreement with Zijin Finance, aiming to become a member unit for three years [9] - Yipin Hong's wholly-owned subsidiary has received a registration certificate for injectable Zolpidem, indicating progress in pharmaceutical development [9] - Naipu Mining's application for issuing convertible bonds has been accepted by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, suggesting potential capital raising for expansion [9] - Tianrongxin is involved in key infrastructure security projects for digital currencies in the financial sector, reflecting its strategic positioning in emerging technologies [9] Market Review and Outlook - On June 23, the market experienced a rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index leading the gains, and a total trading volume of 1.12 trillion yuan, an increase of 549 billion yuan from the previous trading day [11] - The report notes that over 4,400 stocks rose, with significant gains in sectors such as stablecoin concepts, shipping, and solid-state batteries, indicating a positive market sentiment [11] - The outlook suggests that while the market is rebounding, the lack of substantial incremental capital may hinder a sustained upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index expected to fluctuate between 3,410 and 3,330 [11] - Key themes to watch include shipping, oil and gas, stablecoins, and solid-state batteries, as these sectors show the best continuity in performance [11]

Important Market News - The three major US stock indices closed higher, with the S&P 500 rising by 0.96% and the Nasdaq increasing by 0.94%. Major tech stocks mostly rose, with Tesla surging over 8%, marking its largest single-day gain since April 28. Circle, the first stablecoin stock, rose over 9%, with a cumulative increase of approximately 750% since its listing. Chinese concept stocks also saw gains, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index up 0.85% [1] - International oil prices fell significantly, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures at $67.23 per barrel and Brent crude oil down 8.37% at $69.16 per barrel. European stock indices closed slightly lower, with Germany's DAX down 0.35%, France's CAC40 down 0.69%, and the UK's FTSE 100 down 0.19% [1] Industry Insights - According to TrendForce's DRAMeXchange, the spot price of DDR4 has surged significantly. The price of DDR4 8Gb (1G×8) 3200 increased from an average of $2.73 on May 30 to $3.775, a rise of 38.27% in just half a month. Major manufacturers have announced plans to halt DDR4 production, leading to a supply-demand imbalance as the market transitions to DDR5. The storage industry is expected to see a price upturn starting in the second half of 2025 due to reduced production and increased demand from AI devices [2] - US startup Lon Storage Systems has begun producing solid-state batteries and is shipping test units to unnamed electronics manufacturers, paving the way for large-scale commercialization. Major Chinese companies like BYD and CATL are accelerating the mass production of solid-state batteries, with plans for application in vehicles by 2026 to 2028. The solid-state battery technology is gaining attention for its high safety and energy density, with significant industry collaboration [3] - The Democratic Republic of Congo has extended its cobalt export ban for an additional three months. Cobalt prices have surged, with the price of 1 cobalt reaching 256,000 yuan per ton, marking the largest single-day increase in nearly a decade. The ban aims to address oversupply issues and is expected to support a price recovery, with projections for domestic cobalt prices to exceed 250,000 yuan per ton [4]

Macro and Strategy - The fiscal data for the first five months of 2025 shows a decline in both revenue and expenditure, with total public budget revenue at 96,623 billion yuan, down 0.3% year-on-year, and total expenditure at 112,953 billion yuan, up 4.2% year-on-year [9][10] - The high-tech manufacturing macro report indicates that the diffusion index remains unchanged, with specific sectors like dynamic random access memory (DRAM) prices rising, while others like acrylonitrile are declining [10][11] - The macroeconomic report highlights a seasonal decline in high-frequency indicators, suggesting stable economic performance despite fluctuations in investment and consumption sectors [11][12] Industry and Company - The food and beverage industry report emphasizes the emergence of new consumption patterns driven by lifestyle changes, indicating a shift towards more personalized and experience-oriented consumption [23][24] - The report identifies three main consumer groups: Generation Z, the silver-haired population, and the middle class, each with distinct consumption preferences and behaviors [25][26] - Investment recommendations include companies like Wei Long, Salted Fish, Dongpeng Beverage, and Guizhou Moutai, reflecting confidence in the food and beverage sector's growth potential [27] Overseas Market Overview - The US stock market has seen a pullback from high levels, with the S&P 500 down 0.2% and a notable shift of funds towards the financial sector [28][29] - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index fell by 1.5%, with significant outflows from the pharmaceutical and consumer sectors, while the machinery sector attracted investment [30][31] Financial Engineering - The REITs market has shown positive performance, with the index rising by 0.87% and a year-to-date increase of 13.2%, indicating strong interest in property and infrastructure-related investments [14][15] - The approval of the first data center REITs marks a significant expansion in the REITs market, reflecting growing interest in digital infrastructure [16]

Group 1: Cobalt Market - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has extended the temporary ban on cobalt exports for an additional three months due to high inventory levels, affecting all sources of cobalt mining [1] - According to USGS, global cobalt production in 2024 is estimated at 288,000 metric tons, with DRC contributing approximately 220,000 metric tons, a year-on-year increase of about 25%, representing 76.4% of the global market [1] - The extended ban is expected to impact global cobalt supply by over 100,000 metric tons this year, potentially leading to domestic supply shortages [1] Group 2: Cross-Border Payment - The launch of the "Cross-Border Payment Pass" on June 22 marks the realization of interconnectivity between the mainland and Hong Kong's rapid payment systems, allowing real-time cross-border remittances [2] - This innovation is anticipated to enhance the convenience of using the Renminbi in cross-border retail scenarios and further promote the internationalization of the Renminbi [2] - Analysts suggest that the "Cross-Border Payment Pass" and stablecoins will serve as new engines for industry development, improving cross-border transaction efficiency and supporting global financial governance [2] Group 3: Brain-Computer Interface - The first intervention-based brain-computer interface trial for restoring motor function in a paralyzed patient has been successfully completed in China, showcasing the country's innovation in core brain-computer interface technology [3] - Analysts believe that brain-computer interfaces are poised to become a core technology for human-machine interaction, with applications initially focused on medical rehabilitation and later expanding to education, entertainment, military, and industrial sectors [3][4] Group 4: High-End Medical Devices - The National Medical Products Administration has approved measures to optimize the lifecycle regulation of high-end medical devices, supporting innovation in this sector [5] - The measures include optimizing special approval processes, improving classification and naming principles, and enhancing post-market surveillance [5] - The high-end medical device market is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating a market size of 1.27 trillion yuan in 2023, surpassing 1.8 trillion yuan by 2025, and reaching 3 trillion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate exceeding 11.5% [5][6] Group 5: Smart Factories - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has announced the 2025 action plan for cultivating smart factories, categorizing them into four levels: basic, advanced, excellent, and leading [6] - Smart factories are seen as the core vehicle for the digital transformation of manufacturing, integrating information technology, automation, and artificial intelligence to achieve intelligent and efficient production processes [6] - The smart factory market is projected to exceed 1.4 trillion yuan by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of over 10%, and is expected to approach 4.5 trillion yuan by 2030 [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the cobalt industry [1] Core Insights - The global cobalt supply chain is highly dependent on the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), which accounts for over 50% of global cobalt reserves and over 70% of production. In 2024, DRC's cobalt production is expected to reach approximately 220,000 metric tons, a year-on-year increase of about 25%, representing 76.4% of global market share [4][30] - Indonesia's nickel-cobalt projects are reshaping the industry landscape, with MHP production expected to grow significantly, leading to a projected cobalt output of 28,000 metric tons in 2024, accounting for about 10% of global production [4][42] - The lithium battery sector is the main driver of global cobalt consumption, with a projected consumption of 222,000 metric tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of approximately 14%. The electric vehicle sector is expected to consume about 95,000 metric tons, a 21% increase [4][42] - The DRC's policy adjustments in response to supply-demand imbalances have led to fluctuations in cobalt prices, with domestic prices expected to rebound above 250,000 yuan per ton in 2024 [4] Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - The DRC's cobalt production is projected to grow significantly due to the performance of major mining companies like Luoyang Molybdenum, which is expected to produce approximately 114,200 metric tons of cobalt in 2024, a 106% increase year-on-year [4][30] - The DRC's decision to suspend cobalt raw material exports for four months aims to address oversupply issues, which is expected to impact global cobalt supply by over 100,000 metric tons [4] Industry Structure - The cobalt industry is characterized by a concentration of resources, with major players including Luoyang Molybdenum, Glencore, and others controlling significant portions of the market [4][16] - Indonesia's MHP production is rapidly increasing, with a projected output of 323,000 metric tons of nickel in 2024, which will also enhance cobalt production [4][42] Market Trends - The report highlights a recovery in global demand for consumer electronics, with smartphone shipments expected to reach 1.24 billion units in 2024, marking a 6.4% increase [4] - The DRC's cobalt price adjustments and export policies are expected to influence market dynamics significantly, with long-term implications for pricing power in the cobalt market [4]

Core Viewpoint - The chairman of Huayou Cobalt, Chen Xuehua, responded to rumors regarding the replacement of LG by Huayou in the electric vehicle battery project in Indonesia, emphasizing Huayou's ongoing partnership with LG and the project's significance [1] Group 1: Company Involvement - Huayou Cobalt has been a member of the LG consortium for five years, participating in the electric vehicle battery project [1] - The project encompasses the entire industry chain from mining to precursor and battery production, highlighting Huayou's comprehensive industry advantages [1] Group 2: Future Prospects - The Indonesian government is looking for Huayou to form new partnerships to advance the project, indicating potential collaborative opportunities [1] - Huayou is open to promoting the project but emphasizes that it will not be solely driven by Huayou; industry chain partners will be involved [1]

Group 1 - As of March 31, lithium carbonate futures closed at 74,160 CNY/ton, with a price drop of 1.38% over the month [1] - The trading volume for the main lithium carbonate futures contract was 83,911 lots, with an open interest of 210,611 lots, reflecting a slight increase [1] - The overall market for lithium carbonate fluctuated between 72,000 and 78,000 CNY/ton during March [1] Group 2 - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was reported at 74,000 CNY/ton, while industrial-grade was at 72,100 CNY/ton, both showing a slight decline compared to the previous month [1] - Domestic lithium spodumene imports totaled 1.16 million tons in January-February 2025, equivalent to 95,000 tons of lithium carbonate [1] - The lithium market is experiencing a decrease in demand acceptance from domestic buyers due to falling lithium carbonate prices, leading to lower overseas mine quotations [1] Group 3 - The production of lithium carbonate is expected to remain high, with strong supply from first and second-tier lithium salt manufacturers despite some reductions from smaller firms [1] - Downstream demand is relatively stable, with slight increases in production for lithium iron phosphate, while the growth in ternary materials remains limited [1] - As of March 27, SMM reported lithium carbonate inventory at 127,900 tons, an increase of 1,511 tons from the previous week [1] Group 4 - The average market price for industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 72,000 CNY/ton, down 2.04% from the same period last month, while battery-grade averaged 73,500 CNY/ton, down 2.65% [1] - The market is expected to continue facing oversupply, with weak price performance anticipated for lithium carbonate in April [1] - Cobalt market conditions are showing strength, with rising prices driven by supply disruptions from the Democratic Republic of Congo [1]

行业点评 | 有色金属 钴价已突破 25 万元/吨，钴供需结构有望好转 事件：根据 25 年 2 月 21 日由刚果金总理和矿业部长签署的新法规，国有企 业 EGC(Entreprise Generale du Cobalt)成为唯一有权出口所谓手工钴的实 体。2025 年 2 月 24 日，全球最大钴供应国刚果（金）宣布暂停钴出口四个 月，以应对国际市场供应过剩导致的钴价持续低迷。该政策自 2 月 22 日生 效，计划三个月后评估效果并决定是否调整。作为全球钴供应链的核心节点， 刚果（金）此举或引发钴价短期波动，并对中国钴产业链上下游企业形成挑 战与机遇。 截至 3 月 13 日，钴价已达 26.1 万元/吨，较 2 月 24 日涨幅达 64.15%。中 国钴平均价格自 2025 年 2 月 24 日起明显上涨。截至 25 年 3 月 13 日，钴 价在刚果金宣布暂停出口后显著上涨，预计价格将持续提升。2024 年刚果 （金）国内生产总值超 700 亿美元，矿业产值占 GDP 的 30%-40%，是经 济核心支柱，刚果金即使不希望贱卖矿产，也仍需要出口矿物维持国家经济 收入，故我们判断四个月后或将有限地放开 ...

十天内，两则消息彻底搅动全球钴矿江湖。 首先据新华财经消息，刚果（金）有关部门2月24日宣布，该国决定暂停钴出口四个月，以应对 全球钴市场供应过剩的局面；据了解，该禁止出口措施适用于所有生产商，但没有限制钴的生 产，而且不影响铜的出口。该决定将于3个月后再行审查。同时，监管当局也在准备其他措施以 平衡钴市场。 3月5日，据 "SMM新能源" 报道，国产动力电池厂商赣锋锂电发布客户告知函称：近期，全球最 大的钻矿产地刚果金爆发内战，导致全球钻矿供应紧张，钻价大幅上涨。受此影响，所有正极材 料供应商已停止报价，短期内无法下单采购正极材料，锂电池行业正面临成本上升和供应链中断 的挑战。 受两则消息影响，自信息发布至今 （3月7日收盘） ，9个交易日，中国资本市场钴矿三巨头腾远 钴业 (301219.SZ) 、华友钴业 (603799.SH) 、寒锐钴业 (300618.SZ) 股价分别上涨了27.50%、 18.24%、16.56%，而同期上证指数下跌了0.01%。 目前关于第2则消息的影响与变化我们目前还难以预测，本文旨在整理与分析 "刚果（金）禁运令 将对全球钴矿价格，乃至全球钴供应链产生怎样的影响？以及未来钴 ...

行 业 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 [Ta刚bl果e_（R金e）p暂Ti停tle出]口四个月 钴价短期或获支撑走强 [Table_Title] ——有色金属行业点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 2 月 26 日 孟业雄 [内Ta容ble摘_S要ummary] [有Ta色b金le_属P（icQ中u信ot）e]与上证综指走势图 告 行 业 重 大 事 件 点 中性 [相Ta关bl报e_告Report] 报 告 [分Ta析b师le_：Author] 联系电话：010-88300920 [Table_Author] 执业证书编号：S1380523040001 邮箱：mengyexiong@gkzq.com.cn 2月24日，刚果（金）相关部门宣布了一项重大决策：为应对全 球钴市场出现的供应过剩问题，该国将钴出口暂停四个月。当日， 刚果（金）战略矿产市场监管控制局发表声明，透露刚果总理与 矿业部长已共同签署法令，授权监管机构在必要时采取临时禁止 出口等措施，确保市场稳定不受干扰。此措施自2月22日起正式 施行。声明还指出，政府计划在措施实施三个月后进行全面评估， 并依据评估结果考虑是否调整或解除当前的出 ...