1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The consumption side of zinc has slightly improved, and the operating rate has rebounded, with a neutral strength analysis [2]. - The inventory accumulation rhythm continues, and the galvanizing operating rate has slightly increased [3]. - Domestic zinc supply has increased as expected. With the increase in zinc concentrate supply, smelters and port zinc concentrate inventories are relatively abundant. However, there will be some maintenance in September, leading to a month - on - month contraction in supply. The consumption side has slightly improved, but terminal demand is relatively weak. In the short term, zinc prices may fluctuate within a narrow range, and in the medium to long term, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended. For internal and external strategies, SHFE zinc may be relatively weaker during the period of increased domestic supply and decreased demand, and short - term (within a quarter) positive spread positions can be held [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract last week was 22,305, with a weekly increase of 0.68%, and the night - session closing price was 22,300, with a decrease of 0.02%. The closing price of LmeS - zinc3 last week was 2,956, with a weekly increase of 3.45%. The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract last Friday was 103,603, a decrease of 2,073 from the previous week, and the position was 97,697, a decrease of 13,613 from the previous week. The trading volume of LmeS - zinc3 last Friday was 14,507, an increase of 3,814 from the previous week, and the position was 204,806, an increase of 5,836 from the previous week [6]. - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc warrant inventory increased by 5,133 to 45,905, and the total SHFE zinc inventory increased by 7,617 to 94,649. Social inventory increased by 5,300 to 154,200. LME zinc inventory decreased by 3,525 to 50,525, and the bonded area inventory remained unchanged at 8,000 [6]. 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories have risen to high levels, and visible zinc ingot inventories have increased [10]. - **Profit**: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industrial chain, and smelting profits are at a medium - high level in history. Mining enterprise profits are stable in the short term and at a medium historical level. Smelting profits are stable and at a medium - high historical level. Galvanized pipe enterprise profits are stable and at a medium - low level in the same period [12][13]. - **Operating Rate**: The zinc concentrate operating rate has declined and is at a medium level in the same period in history. The refined zinc operating rate has increased and is at a high level in the same period in history. The downstream galvanizing operating rate has decreased, the die - casting zinc operating rate has increased, and the zinc oxide operating rate has increased, all at relatively low historical levels [14][15]. 3.3 Trading Aspect - **Spot**: The spot premium has slightly declined. Overseas premiums are relatively stable, with a slight decrease in Antwerp, and the LME CASH - 3M structure has changed significantly [18][21]. - **Spread**: SHFE zinc shows a C structure [23]. - **Inventory**: Inventory accumulation continues, and the position - to - inventory ratio continues to decline. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore. The total LME inventory has slightly decreased in the short term and is at a medium - low level in the same period in history. The CASH - 3M is related to LME off - warrant inventory. The bonded area inventory is stable, and the total global visible zinc inventory has slightly increased [31][37][40]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: The domestic position is at a medium level in the same period in history [41]. 3.4 Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have increased significantly. Domestic zinc ore production is at a medium historical level. Imported ore processing fees continue to rise, and domestic ore processing fees remain flat. The zinc ore arrival volume is at a medium level, and smelter raw material inventories are abundant and at a high level in the same period in history [44][45]. - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting production has increased and is at a high level in the same period in history. Smelter finished product inventories have increased and are at a high level in the same period in history. Zinc alloy production is at a high level. Refined zinc imports are at a medium historical level [52][54]. - **Recycled Zinc Raw Materials**: Some data on recycled zinc raw materials such as the operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills, the average price of galvanized pipe slag, and the waste steel daily consumption of steel mills are provided, but no overall summary is given [57][58][59]. 3.5 Demand - **Refined Zinc Consumption**: The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive [63]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: The downstream monthly operating rate has slightly decreased, and most are at medium - low levels in the same period in history [66][67]. - **Terminal Demand**: Real estate is still at a low level, and the power grid shows structural increments [79]. 3.6 Overseas Factors - Natural gas, carbon, and electricity prices in Europe are provided, such as the European Continental benchmark Dutch natural gas futures price, the ICE EU carbon quota main contract price, and electricity prices in some European countries, but no overall summary is given [81][82][83].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the main contract of Shanghai Zinc fluctuated and declined, with a weekly change of -1.02% and an amplitude of 1.29%. The closing price of the main contract was 22,275 yuan/ton. Looking ahead, macro - factors show that the preliminary value of the US manufacturing PMI in August reached 53.3, hitting a new high in more than three years and increasing inflation pressure. In terms of fundamentals, the import volume of zinc ore at home and abroad has risen, the zinc ore processing fee has continued to increase, and the sulfuric acid price has risen significantly, leading to a further repair of smelter profits and increased production enthusiasm. New production capacities are being released, and previously overhauled capacities are resuming production, accelerating the growth of supply. Currently, the import loss continues to expand, and the inflow of imported zinc has decreased. On the demand side, it is the off - season, the operating rate of processing enterprises has decreased year - on - year. After the recent decline in zinc prices, downstream enterprises mainly purchase on - demand at low prices, and the overall transaction has improved. Domestic social inventories have slightly decreased, and the spot premium has remained stable. Overseas LME inventories have decreased significantly, and the LME spot premium has been adjusted downward, which may weaken the support for domestic zinc prices. Technically, the price is adjusting at a low position of holdings, and attention should be paid to the support at 22,200. It is recommended to wait and see or go long lightly at low prices [4]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Zinc fluctuated and declined this week, with a weekly change of -1.02% and an amplitude of 1.29%. The closing price of the main contract was 22,275 yuan/ton [4]. - **Market Outlook**: Macroeconomic factors include the high US manufacturing PMI and inflation pressure. Fundamentally, supply is increasing, and demand is in the off - season. Technically, attention should be paid to the support at 22,200 [4]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see or go long lightly at low prices [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Ratio**: The price of Shanghai Zinc futures declined this week, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased. As of August 22, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Zinc was 22,275 yuan/ton, a decrease of 230 yuan/ton from August 15, 2025, with a decline of 1.02%. As of August 21, 2025, the closing price of LME Zinc was 2,767 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 75.5 US dollars/ton from August 15, 2025, with a decline of 2.66% [9]. - **Net Position and Open Interest**: As of August 22, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc was -7,709 lots, a decrease of 26,519 lots from August 15, 2025. The open interest of Shanghai Zinc was 211,313 lots, a decrease of 4,138 lots from August 15, 2025, with a decline of 1.92% [12]. - **Price Spreads**: As of August 22, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures spread was 1,645 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton from August 15, 2025. The lead - zinc futures spread was 5,495 yuan/ton, a decrease of 160 yuan/ton from August 15, 2025 [16]. - **Premium and Discount**: As of August 22, 2025, the spot price of 0 zinc ingot was 22,210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 250 yuan/ton from August 15, 2025, with a decline of 1.11%. The spot discount was 45 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from last week. As of August 21, 2025, the LME zinc near - month and 3 - month spread was -7.54 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6.98 US dollars/ton from August 14, 2025 [22]. - **Inventory**: As of August 21, 2025, the LME refined zinc inventory was 69,375 tons, a decrease of 8,075 tons from August 14, 2025, with a decline of 10.43%. As of August 22, 2025, the SHFE refined zinc inventory was 77,838 tons, an increase of 1,035 tons from last week, with an increase of 1.35%. As of August 21, 2025, the domestic refined zinc social inventory was 117,600 tons, an increase of 7,600 tons from August 14, 2025, with an increase of 6.91% [25]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream**: In May 2025, the global zinc ore output was 1.0193 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.37% and a year - on - year increase of 2.49%. In July 2025, the import volume of zinc ore concentrates was 501,424.97 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.97% and a year - on - year increase of 37.75% [31]. - **Supply - Side**: In May 2025, the global refined zinc output was 1.1164 million tons, a decrease of 48,700 tons from the same period last year, with a decline of 4.18%. The global refined zinc consumption was 1.1605 million tons, an increase of 36,800 tons from the same period last year, with an increase of 3.27%. The global refined zinc gap was 44,100 tons. In July 2025, the zinc output was 617,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.8%. From January to July, the cumulative zinc output was 4.166 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. In July 2025, the refined zinc import volume was 17,903.91 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.97%. The refined zinc export volume was 406.07 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 85.11% [36][40][43]. - **Downstream**: - Galvanized sheet (strip): From January to June 2025, the inventory of domestic major enterprises' galvanized sheet (strip) was 790,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 21.31%. In July 2025, the import volume of galvanized sheet (strip) was 30,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 39.92%. The export volume was 346,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 43.29% [46]. - Real estate: From January to July 2025, the new housing construction area was 352.0614 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.5%. The housing completion area was 250.3441 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 21.19%. The funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 5.728655 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 7.5%. Among them, personal mortgage loans were 791.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 9.3% [51][52]. - Infrastructure: In July 2025, the real estate development climate index was 93.34, a decrease of 0.25 from last month and an increase of 1.23 from the same period last year. From January to July 2025, the infrastructure investment increased by 7.29% year - on - year [57]. - Home appliances: In July 2025, the refrigerator output was 8.7307 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5%. From January to July, the cumulative refrigerator output was 59.6315 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. In July 2025, the air - conditioner output was 20.5965 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. From January to July, the cumulative air - conditioner output was 183.4554 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.1% [61]. - Automobile: In July 2025, the Chinese automobile sales volume was 2,593,410 units, a year - on - year increase of 14.66%. The automobile production volume was 2,591,084 units, a year - on - year increase of 13.33% [64].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The domestic zinc market is facing a situation where supply is increasing while demand remains weak, leading to continuous inventory accumulation and downward pressure on the Shanghai zinc price. However, the LME zinc inventory overseas is continuously decreasing and remains at a relatively low level, so attention should be paid to the impact of overseas funds on the LME zinc price [6]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Industrial Supply and Demand - **Mine End**: This week, the domestic zinc concentrate market remained stable. The average weekly TC price of domestic SMM Zn50 zinc concentrate was flat at 3,900 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index rose by $8.05/dry ton to $90.3/dry ton. The arrival of imported zinc concentrate at Fangchenggang Port this week led to an increase in the inventory of imported zinc concentrate at domestic ports, with the total amount at major SMM ports increasing by 46,000 tons to 304,000 tons. Although the TC of imported zinc concentrate has been raised recently, the smelting profit of domestic zinc concentrate is still high, and smelters tend to purchase domestic ore. It is expected that there is still room for an increase in the imported TC in the future [6]. - **Smelting End**: In August, except for some smelters in Hunan for maintenance, the production of other smelters is expected to remain stable. Coupled with the continuous release of new domestic production capacity, SMM expects that the domestic refined zinc output in August may increase by 3.1% month-on-month to 621,500 tons. Currently, the zinc concentrate processing fee has been significantly raised compared with the previous period, and the zinc price is relatively high, so the profit margin of smelters is constantly expanding. With sufficient domestic zinc concentrate supply, the enthusiasm of smelters to start production has significantly increased, and the supply of refined zinc is expected to increase significantly [6]. - **Consumption**: Currently, it is still the off - season for zinc consumption. Coupled with the possible production reduction and suspension in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region around August 20, downstream consumption may further weaken [6]. - **Inventory Data**: As of August 14, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven major SMM regions was 129,200 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from August 11 and 16,000 tons from August 7. The LME zinc inventory (August 14) was 76,300 tons, a decrease of 4,100 tons from August 8 [6]. Trading Strategies - **Single - sided**: Profitable short positions can continue to be held, and attention should be paid to the impact of funds on the zinc price. - **Arbitrage**: Temporarily wait and see [6]. Chapter 2: Market Data No specific data analysis content provided in the given text. Chapter 3: Fundamental Data Zinc Ore Supply - **Production**: According to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group, from January to May 2025, the global zinc concentrate production was 4.993 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 252,000 tons or 5.31%. Among them, the overseas zinc concentrate production was 3.467 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 220,900 tons or 6.8%; China's zinc concentrate production was 1.526 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 31,000 tons or 2.07%. In July 2025, the SMM zinc concentrate production was 346,800 metal tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.53% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.68%. The expected zinc concentrate production in August 2025 is 340,800 metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.73%. In July, the monthly raw material inventory of smelters was 468,000 metal tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.46% and a year - on - year increase of 157%. The inventory of zinc concentrate at major domestic ports increased by 46,000 tons to 354,000 tons [26][30]. - **Import**: From January to June 2025, overseas mines resumed and started production, and the zinc concentrate production increased significantly. When the domestic zinc concentrate import window opened, smelters and traders actively purchased and locked prices, resulting in a continuous inflow of overseas zinc concentrate into the domestic market, and the supply of imported zinc concentrate increased significantly. It is expected that the zinc concentrate import window will still open in the second half of the year, and a large amount of imported zinc concentrate will flow into the domestic market. In June 2025, China's import volume of zinc ore and its concentrates was 330,000 physical tons, a month - on - month decrease of 32.87% and a year - on - year increase of 22.95% [32][41]. Zinc Ore Processing Fees - In August, the monthly processing fee for domestic Zn50 zinc concentrate rose to 3,950 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,350 yuan/ton compared with December 2024. On August 15, the weekly processing fee for domestic Zn50 zinc concentrate was 3,900 yuan/ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index rose by $8.05/dry ton to $90.3/dry ton [48]. Global Refined Zinc Production - From January to May 2025, the global refined zinc production was 5.512 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 184,400 tons or 3.24%. The main reason for the decrease in production was the reduction and suspension of production at the Seakpho smelter in South Korea and the Annaka smelter in Japan. The global refined zinc consumption was 5.419 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 43,100 tons or 0.79%. The decrease in consumption was mainly concentrated in the United States and Mexico. From January to May 2025, the global refined zinc had a cumulative surplus of 92,800 tons. In May, due to the significant increase in zinc consumption in Asia, the global refined zinc shifted from surplus to shortage [54]. Domestic Refined Zinc Supply - **Domestic Smelter Operation**: From January to July, the average operating rate of domestic refined zinc enterprises was about 89.2%, a year - on - year increase of 3.97%. By scale, the operating rate of large - scale refined zinc enterprises was 89.95%, a year - on - year increase of 2.05%; the operating rate of medium - scale refined zinc enterprises was 94.59%, a year - on - year increase of 7.4%; the operating rate of small - scale refined zinc enterprises was 72.38%, a year - on - year increase of 1.1%. From January to February this year, the operating rate of domestic smelters was lower than that of the same period last year, mainly because smelters were still in a loss - making state and due to the Spring Festival holiday. Since March, after smelters turned from loss to profit, the operating rate increased significantly year - on - year. From January to July, the domestic refined zinc production was 3.843 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.67% [57]. - **Zinc Ingot Import**: In June 2025, the refined zinc import volume was 36,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9,300 tons or 34.98%, and a year - on - year increase of 3.24%. From January to June, the cumulative refined zinc import volume was 191,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 13.53%. In June, the refined zinc export volume was 1,900 tons, so the net refined zinc import volume in June was 34,100 tons [59]. Raw Material Supply and Demand Summary - The report provides a detailed table of the supply and demand of zinc concentrate and refined zinc from January 2024 to June 2025, including production, net import volume, total supply, and their year - on - year changes [67].

Group 1 - The metal zinc concept declined by 0.02% as of the close on August 18, ranking among the top declines in the concept sector, with companies like Shengtun Mining, Zijin Mining, and Zhuhai Group experiencing significant drops [1] - Among the 15 stocks that rose, *ST Jinglan, China Nonferrous Metal, and Dazhong Mining led with increases of 5.26%, 2.30%, and 2.19% respectively [1] - The metal zinc concept saw a net outflow of 1.194 billion yuan from major funds today, with 25 stocks experiencing outflows, and 5 stocks seeing outflows exceeding 50 million yuan [2] Group 2 - The top net outflow stocks in the metal zinc concept included Zijin Mining with a net outflow of 514.97 million yuan, Shengtun Mining with 345.54 million yuan, and Hunan Silver with 103.19 million yuan [3] - Conversely, the stocks with the highest net inflows included China Nonferrous Metal, Zhongjin Lingnan, and CITIC Metal, with inflows of 48.08 million yuan, 20.43 million yuan, and 18.70 million yuan respectively [2][3] - The trading volume for Zijin Mining was 1.27%, while Shengtun Mining had a turnover rate of 7.04% [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of the zinc industry is neutral [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term and remain bearish in the medium term. The supply is increasing while the demand is in the traditional off - season. Although the short - term inventory accumulation is moderate and the macro - environment provides some support, the long - term excess supply will lead to price pressure. It is advisable to hold short positions in the medium - long term and maintain long - short positions within the quarter [4] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Data - **Market Review**: The closing price of Shanghai Zinc Main Contract last week was 22,885, with a weekly increase of 2.65%. The closing price of last night's session was 22,715, with a night - session decline of 0.74%. The closing price of LmeS - Zinc 3 last week was 2,829, with a weekly increase of 0.18% [7] - **Futures Trading and Position Changes**: The trading volume of Shanghai Zinc Main Contract last Friday was 152,086, an increase of 1,020 compared to the previous week. The position was 129,228, an increase of 13,260. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 8,275, a decrease of 10,132 compared to the previous week, and the position was 190,675, an increase of 3,903 [7] - **Inventory Changes**: Shanghai Zinc warehouse receipt inventory increased by 1,928 to 13,289; Shanghai Zinc total inventory increased by 4,789 to 59,419; social inventory increased by 4,800 to 98,300; LME zinc inventory decreased by 3,325 to 115,775; bonded area inventory remained unchanged at 6,000 [7] - **Fundamental Data and Information**: Imported zinc ore processing fees remained at $55/ton; imported zinc ore smelting profit increased by 73 to - 1,765 yuan/ton; domestic zinc ore processing fees remained at 3,800 yuan/ton; domestic zinc ore smelting profit increased by 154 to 462 yuan/ton; galvanized sheet price increased by 120 to 4,050 yuan/ton [7] 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories have returned to high levels, and zinc ingot visible inventory has increased but remains low [10] - **Profit**: Zinc ore profit is at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profit is at a medium level. Mining enterprise profit is stable in the short term and at a historical medium level; smelting profit is stable and at a historical medium level; galvanized pipe enterprise profit is stable and at a medium - low level in the same period [12][13] - **Operation Rate**: The zinc concentrate operation rate has rebounded to a historical medium level; the refined zinc monthly operation rate is at a high level in the same period; among downstream industries, the galvanized operation rate has increased, while the die - cast zinc operation rate has decreased and is at a medium - low level in history [14][15] 3.3 Trading Aspect - **Spot**: Spot premium has significantly declined, and overseas premium is relatively stable. The structure of LME CASH - 3M has changed significantly [18][23] - **Spread**: The near - end of Shanghai Zinc shows a C structure, and the far - end structure is gradually shifting to a backwardation [25] - **Inventory**: Inventory at a low level shows a stable upward trend, and the position - to - inventory ratio has declined from a high level. Bonded area inventory is stable, and the total global zinc visible inventory has increased slightly [33][38] - **Futures**: The domestic position is at a relatively high level in the same period in history [39] 3.4 Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have declined, domestic zinc ore production is at a medium - low level, and the recovery rate of domestic and imported ore processing fees has slowed down. The arrival volume of zinc ore at ports is at a medium level, and smelter raw material inventory is abundant and at a high level in the same period in history [42][43] - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting output has marginally recovered, smelter finished product inventory is at a medium - high level in the same period in history, and zinc alloy output is at a high level [44] - **Import and Export**: Refined zinc imports are at a historical medium level [47] 3.5 Zinc Demand - **Downstream Processing Materials**: Refined zinc consumption growth rate is positive. The monthly operation rate of downstream industries has slightly decreased, and most are at medium - low levels in the same period in history. Downstream raw material and finished product inventories show different trends [56][59] - **Terminal**: The real estate market remains at a low level, and the power grid shows structural incremental growth [72] 3.6 Overseas Factors - There are fluctuations in European natural gas, carbon, and electricity prices, which may have an impact on the zinc market [74][75][76]

Group 1 - The metal zinc concept declined by 1.46%, ranking among the top declines in the concept sector, with major companies like Zijin Mining, Zhuhai Group, and Western Mining experiencing significant drops [1][2] - Among the companies in the zinc sector, Dazhong Mining, Smart Agriculture, and Zhejiang Fu Holdings saw increases of 10.05%, 3.19%, and 0.95% respectively [1][3] - The zinc concept sector experienced a net outflow of 1.371 billion yuan, with 28 stocks seeing net outflows, and 8 stocks with outflows exceeding 50 million yuan [2][3] Group 2 - The top net outflow stock was Zijin Mining, with a net outflow of 625.26 million yuan, followed by Hunan Gold and Xiyang Co., with net outflows of 154.87 million yuan and 87.99 million yuan respectively [2][3] - The stocks with the highest net inflows included Dazhong Mining, Smart Agriculture, and Western Mining, with net inflows of 82.13 million yuan, 61.00 million yuan, and 35.24 million yuan respectively [2][3] - The overall performance of the zinc sector reflects a challenging market environment, with several companies facing significant capital outflows [1][2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Zinc: Bearish [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second half of the year, the supply is expected to continue to be released, but there may be disruptions. The demand side is likely to face pressure, and the traditional peak season may see a temporary improvement. The center of Shanghai Zinc is expected to decline both year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter. The zinc fundamentals may remain weak, suppressing the upside space of zinc prices, but certain factors will limit the downside range [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In H1 2025, zinc prices mainly showed a step - by - step downward trend. The decline of Shanghai Zinc main contract exceeded 13%, and that of LME Zinc main contract exceeded 9%. In the second half of the year, questions remain about the operation of the mining and smelting cycle, the expected change in social inventory, and trading opportunities for zinc ingots [15]. 3.2 Supply Side 3.2.1 Mine End: Temporary Mine Looseness Confirmed, Still Need to Be Vigilant Against Disturbances - In H1 2025, overseas mines produced relatively smoothly, while domestic mines slightly underperformed expectations. The annual overseas mine increment is slightly revised down from 430,000 to 380,000 tons, and the domestic zinc mine increment is revised down from 80,000 to 30,000 tons. In the second half of the year, the mine looseness cycle will continue, but the probability of overseas zinc mine disturbances may increase, and domestic zinc mines may consume raw materials but should not be in short supply [18][27][35][46]. 3.2.2 Smelting End: The Pattern of East - Rising and West - Falling May Intensify - From January to April 2025, global refined zinc production decreased year - on - year, while China's production increased slightly. Overseas smelters are restricted by the record - low Benchmark and have started to cut production, while domestic smelting capacity is gradually being released. In the second half of the year, overseas zinc smelters may continue to cut capacity actively, and the space for internal - external positive spreads may be larger than expected. The upward trend of zinc concentrate TC may have setbacks, and smelter profits may be under pressure [48][52][66]. 3.3 Demand Side 3.3.1 Initial - Stage Demand: Obvious Sector Differentiation, Marginal Weakening of Restocking Momentum - In H1 2025, the overall initial - stage downstream start - up increased year - on - year. After the Spring Festival, the start - up was weak, and then improved with the recovery of terminal demand and the fermentation of the export - rush effect. After June, downstream orders gradually weakened. The restocking of downstream raw materials may be limited in the future [75][80]. 3.3.2 Infrastructure Demand in the Peak Season May Improve Year - on - Year, and the Construction Sector Will Continue to Drag - In H1 2025, infrastructure support was relatively stable. The issuance of new special bonds was basically in line with the plan, and the debt - replacement bonds were issued in advance. The actual operation of infrastructure projects showed that the investment growth rate increased year - on - year but decreased quarter - on - quarter. The construction sector may continue to drag down zinc demand [88][91][98]. 3.3.3 The Growth Rate of Durable Consumer Goods Demand Will Slow Down Both Year - on - Year and Quarter - on - Quarter in the Second Half of the Year - In H1 2025, the automobile and home appliance markets grew steadily under the influence of policies and the export - rush effect. In the second half of the year, the growth rate may slow down due to factors such as the weakening of domestic and external demand [101][109]. 3.3.4 Export Demand: Likely to Face Pressure - Overseas demand is expected to recover, but there may be regional differentiation. The export of initial - stage processed products increased significantly in H1 2025, but in the second half of the year, exports may face pressure due to factors such as anti - dumping and the end of the export - rush effect [117][120][122]. 3.4 Inventory Side - In H1 2025, LME inventory generally decreased, and domestic social inventory was at a historically low level. In the second half of the year, social inventory may gradually increase in the first half of Q3 but is limited by factors such as alloying, downstream restocking, and direct factory - to - customer delivery, and may remain at a relatively low level [132][136]. 3.5 Mining - Smelting Balance and Zinc Price Outlook - The mining - smelting cycle can be divided into two stages. Currently, stage one has not fully ended, and it is unlikely to pre - trade stage two. Zinc prices may be suppressed by weak fundamentals but limited in the downside range by certain factors. Shanghai Zinc may show short - term pulse - type declines during the long - term downward trend [139][140]. 3.6 Investment Suggestions - In the second half of the year, the supply is expected to be released, but there may be disruptions. The demand side is likely to face pressure. The reference range for Shanghai Zinc is [19,900, 23,000], and that for LME Zinc is [2,350, 2,750]. In terms of strategies, it is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities on rallies, and for the industrial side, selling hedging is appropriate. Pay attention to positive spreads in the long - term for monthly spreads and mid - term internal - external positive spreads when the structure is suitable [144][146].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the zinc industry is "Weak" [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The zinc market is expected to face increasing supply and decreasing demand during the off - season, leading to a gradual manifestation of oversupply and downward pressure on prices. In the medium term, holding short positions is recommended. In the short term, prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, and as the off - season deepens, the downward trend will be more pronounced. Positive spread positions within a quarter can be considered [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review - **Price Changes**: The last - week closing price of SHFE Zinc Main Contract was 21,845, with a weekly increase of 0.14%, and the night - session closing price was 21,935, with a night - session increase of 0.41%. The last - week closing price of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 2,649, with a weekly increase of 0.86% [7] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: The trading volume of SHFE Zinc Main Contract last Friday was 104,696, a decrease of 86,341 from the previous week, and the open interest was 76,563, a decrease of 46,597. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 6,815, a decrease of 9,197, and the open interest was 207,970, an increase of 1,574 [7] - **Inventory Changes**: SHFE zinc warehouse receipts inventory decreased by 229 to 8,743; SHFE total zinc inventory decreased by 2,602 to 42,864; social inventory increased by 2,500 to 79,600; LME zinc inventory decreased by 4,775 to 126,225, and the注销仓单 ratio was 25.57%, a decrease of 18.30% [7] 3.2. Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore inventory has rebounded to a high level, while zinc ingot visible inventory is relatively low. Zinc ore inventory at ports and smelters is relatively abundant [9][10] - **Profit**: Zinc ore mining companies' profits are stable in the short term and at a historical median level. Smelting profits are also stable and at a historical median level. Galvanized pipe enterprises' profits are stable but at a relatively low level compared to the same period [11][12] - **Production Capacity Utilization**: Zinc concentrate production capacity utilization has rebounded to a median level in the same period. Refined zinc monthly production capacity utilization is at a high level in the same period. Downstream galvanizing and die - casting zinc production capacity utilization has decreased and is at a relatively low level in history [13][14] 3.3. Trading Perspective - **Spot**: Spot premiums have declined from high levels. Overseas premiums are relatively stable, with a slight decrease in Antwerp, and LME CASH - 3M still shows a C structure [17][19] - **Spread**: The near - end of SHFE zinc shows a B structure, and the far - end is gradually moving out of the back structure [21] - **Inventory**: Inventory has shown a stable trend at a low level, and the ratio of open interest to inventory has declined from a high level [22] - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the domestic market is at a relatively high level in the same period [31] 3.4. Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports are at a high level, domestic zinc ore production is at a medium - low level, and the recovery rate of processing fees for domestic and imported ores has slowed down. Ore arrival volume is at a medium level, and smelter raw material inventory is abundant and at a high level in the same period [34][35] - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting output has marginally recovered, smelter finished product inventory is at a medium - high level in the same period, and zinc alloy output is at a high level. Refined zinc imports are at a historical median level [36][39] 3.5. Zinc Demand - **Downstream Processing Materials**: The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive. Downstream monthly production capacity utilization has slightly recovered and is mostly at a medium - low level in the same period. Downstream raw material and finished product inventories show different trends [45][47] - **End - Users**: The real estate market is still at a low level, while the power grid shows structural growth [58] 3.6. Overseas Factors - European electricity prices, natural gas prices, and carbon prices show different trends, which have an impact on the profitability of European zinc smelters [60]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures rose first and then fell. The significant reduction of Sino - US tariffs, cooling US inflation, and lower - than - expected retail growth increased the expectation of a Fed rate cut, causing the US dollar to decline, which was favorable for the rebound of the non - ferrous sector. However, Moody's downgraded the US credit rating, reigniting macro - concerns. China's April financial data was mixed, with credit failing to continue improving and its structure weakening, indicating insufficient endogenous economic momentum [3][10]. - Since mid - April, zinc ingot imports have started, with many importers reducing orders. Recently, imported and bonded area supplies have flowed in for replenishment, and the inflow is expected to be more obvious in the second half of the month. In May, refineries had concentrated maintenance in the first half of the month, but many resumed production in the second half. After offsetting the increase and decrease, the monthly supply of refined zinc was basically flat compared with the previous month, and the overall supply - side pressure remained unrelieved [4][10]. - In terms of demand, the performance of special towers remained good, while photovoltaic orders weakened. Enterprises' export orders were expected to improve but needed time. The operating rate of galvanized enterprises increased slightly; the export orders of small hardware improved without obvious rush - to - export behavior, and combined with the resumption of some enterprises, the operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy increased; rubber and electronic - grade orders declined, while feed - grade orders improved. Export enterprises remained cautious, and the operating rate of zinc oxide increased slightly month - on - month [4][10]. - Overall, the optimistic sentiment about tariffs has been digested, and Moody's downgraded the US credit rating, causing the market sentiment to return to caution. With the launch of new domestic smelting projects, the supply continued to increase. Meanwhile, with the supplement of imported zinc and the end of the consumption peak season, the expectation of weak fundamentals due to increasing supply and weak demand remained unchanged. In the short term, the cooling of market risk appetite and insufficient fundamental support are expected to lead to a weak and volatile trend in zinc prices [4][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | May 9th | May 16th | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Zinc | 22190 | 22500 | 310 | Yuan/ton | | LME Zinc | 2655.5 | 2726 | 70.5 | US dollars/ton | | Shanghai - London Ratio | 8.36 | 8.25 | - 0.10 | | | SHFE Inventory | 47102 | 46351 | - 751 | Tons | | LME Inventory | 170325 | 165175 | - 5150 | Tons | | Social Inventory | 8.33 | 8.63 | 0.3 | Ten thousand tons | | Spot Premium | 500 | 250 | - 250 | Yuan/ton | [5] 3.2 Market Review - Last week, the main contract ZN2506 of Shanghai zinc futures rose first and then fell. The larger - than - expected reduction of Sino - US tariffs alleviated concerns about the US economic recession and China's export pressure, and the market sentiment recovered, leading to a general rise in non - ferrous metals. However, the zinc price was under pressure and adjusted after hitting the 40 - day moving average, finally closing at 22500 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.4%. It was weak and volatile on Friday night. LME zinc continued to rebound in the first half of the week and fluctuated and consolidated in the second half, finally closing at 2686 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.15% [6]. - In the spot market, as of May 16th, the mainstream transaction price of Shanghai 0 zinc was concentrated between 22765 - 22910 yuan/ton, with a premium of 250 - 270 yuan/ton over 2506. SMC had a premium of 260 yuan/ton over 2506, and Kazakh zinc had a premium of 180 yuan/ton over 2506. In the Ningbo market, the mainstream brand 0 zinc was traded at around 22775 - 22900 yuan/ton, with a premium of 265 yuan/ton over the 2506 contract and a premium of 40 yuan/ton over the Shanghai spot. In Guangdong, the mainstream 0 zinc was traded at 22640 - 22700 yuan/ton, with a premium of 305 yuan/ton over the 2507 contract and a discount of 40 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot, and the Shanghai - Guangdong price difference widened. In the Tianjin market, the mainstream 0 zinc ingots were traded at 22720 - 22940 yuan/ton, and the common 0 zinc was quoted at a premium of 200 - 300 yuan/ton over the 2506 contract, with Tianjin at par with Shanghai. Overall, as the zinc price rebounded, the downstream purchasing sentiment weakened. Meanwhile, with the inflow of imported zinc ingots and improved supply, holders continued to lower the premium quotes to actively sell, but the actual spot transactions were relatively light [7]. - In terms of inventory, as of May 16th, the LME zinc ingot inventory was 165175 tons, a weekly decrease of 5150 tons. The SHFE inventory was 46351 tons, a decrease of 751 tons from the previous week. As of May 15th, the social inventory was 8.63 million tons, an increase of 0.08 million tons from Monday and an increase of 0.3 million tons from the previous week. Among them, the inventory in Guangdong decreased due to less arrival and downstream pick - up after low - price purchases in the early stage; the inventory in Tianjin increased as downstream buyers were cautious due to high prices; the inventory in Shanghai changed little; and the inventory in Zhejiang increased significantly due to the arrival of imported zinc ingots [8]. - In the macro aspect, US inflation cooled down. The April CPI was 2.3% year - on - year, the lowest level since February 2021. The core CPI increased by 2.8% year - on - year, the lowest rate since the inflation outbreak in the spring of 2021. The US April PPI increased by 2.4% year - on - year, lower than expected, and decreased by 0.5% month - on - month, with the largest decline in five years. The US April retail sales increased by 0.1% month - on - month, slightly exceeding expectations but significantly weaker than the previous value, indicating weak consumer spending. Fed Chairman Powell said that the Fed was considering adjusting the core content of the monetary policy guidance framework to cope with major changes in inflation and interest rate prospects after the 2020 pandemic. Fed Vice - Chairman Jefferson said that tariffs and related uncertainties might lead to slower economic growth and rising inflation this year, but the monetary policy was ready to respond as needed. In terms of tariffs, the joint statement of the Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks was released. Both sides agreed to significantly reduce bilateral tariff levels. The US cancelled a total of 91% of the additional tariffs, and China correspondingly cancelled 91% of the counter - tariffs; the US suspended the implementation of 24% of the "reciprocal tariffs", and China also correspondingly suspended the implementation of 24% of the counter - tariffs. China's new RMB loans in April were 280 billion yuan, the previous value was 3.64 trillion yuan, the expected value was 764.4 billion yuan, and the value of the same period last year was 730 billion yuan; the new social financing was 1.16 trillion yuan, the previous value was 5.89 trillion yuan, the expected value was 1.26 trillion yuan, and the value of the same period last year was - 65.8 billion yuan; the stock social financing growth rate was 8.7%, the previous value was 8.4%; M2 increased by 8% year - on - year, the expected value was 7.5%, and the previous value was 7%; M1 increased by 1.5% year - on - year, the expected value was 3%, and the previous value was 1.6% [8][9]. 3.3 Industry News - As of the week of May 16th, the weekly processing fees for domestic and foreign zinc concentrates were reported at 3500 yuan/metal ton and 45 US dollars/dry ton respectively, remaining flat month - on - month for domestic and increasing by 5 US dollars/dry ton for foreign [11]. - Kyzyl - Tashtyg Mine, operated by Longxin Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Zijin Mining Group in the Tuva Republic of Russia, is facing financial difficulties due to the escalation of international sanctions and limited Sino - Russian financial cooperation and plans to suspend operations. Zijin Mining owns 70% of the mine, which produced approximately 71300 tons of zinc concentrate and approximately 4750 tons of lead concentrate in 2024 [11][12]. - New Century's zinc concentrate production in Q1 2025 was 30000 tons. It performed excellently in Q1 2025, reducing the impact of the rainy season through effective resilience measures, with a 50% increase compared to the weather - affected production in 2024. Zijin Mining's mineral zinc production in Q1 2025 was 88215 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10% and a month - on - month decrease of 9% [12]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including the price trend charts of Shanghai zinc and LME zinc, the internal and external price ratio, spot premium and discount, LME premium and discount, inventory data of SHFE, LME, social and bonded areas, domestic and foreign zinc ore processing fees, zinc ore import profit and loss, domestic refined zinc production, smelter profit, refined zinc net import, and the operating rate of downstream primary enterprises [14][15][17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Weak". Zinc is expected to fluctuate in the short - term due to weak supply and demand, and trend weakly in the medium - term [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints - With the resumption of mines and the gradual implementation of new and expanded production capacities, the subsequent processing fees still have a trend of rising steadily. Currently, smelter profits have significantly recovered, and the smelting revenue including by - products such as silver and sulfuric acid is close to 1000 yuan/ton. At the same time, smelter raw material and port ore inventories are at relatively high levels, and the smelting start - up rate has generally increased in the second quarter. However, in May, smelters in regions such as Yunnan are under maintenance and shut - down, and the output may decrease by more than 10,000 tons compared with April [7]. - Consumption is gradually transitioning to a slack stage, and the downstream replenishment space is limited. In terms of terminal consumption by sector, power towers are still relatively strong, while other sectors are relatively dull. After the previous sharp price decline, the downstream had a strong willingness to replenish raw materials, which to some extent reduced the subsequent demand space. It is expected that the apparent consumption peaked in April and will show a high - level contraction trend, putting pressure on the upper price limit [7]. - Fundamentally, it shows weak supply and demand. The supply - side production cuts and low social inventories support the near - end price. However, there is still an expectation of increased supply in the far - end, the inflection point of social inventories may come, and it will still operate weakly in the medium - and long - term, and the term spread also faces convergence pressure. For domestic and foreign zinc prices, the profit - loss ratio of domestic - foreign long - short arbitrage is appropriate, but attention should be paid to structural losses [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review - **Price**: The closing price of SHFE Zinc main contract last week was 22,190 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.11%. The closing price of the night session yesterday was 22,260 yuan/ton, with a night - session increase of 0.32%. The closing price of LmeS - Zinc 3 last week was 2,655.5 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.61% [8]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SHFE Zinc main contract last Friday was 140,017 lots, an increase of 24,655 lots compared with the previous week. The open interest was 119,170 lots, an increase of 13,174 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc 3 last Friday was 6,713 lots, an increase of 1,517 lots compared with the previous week. The open interest was 213,170 lots, an increase of 4,608 lots [8]. - **Basis**: The LME zinc premium last Friday was - 26.13 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10.96 US dollars/ton compared with the previous week. The SHFE zinc basis showed different changes in different regions [8]. - **Inventory**: The SHFE zinc warrant inventory last week was 1,903 tons, a decrease of 451 tons compared with the previous week. The total SHFE zinc inventory was 47,102 tons, a decrease of 1,375 tons. The LME zinc inventory was 170,325 tons, a decrease of 3,475 tons. The bonded - area inventory was 7,600 tons, a decrease of 1,200 tons. The social inventory was 83,300 tons, an increase of 6,300 tons [8]. 3.2. Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore inventory has risen to a high level, while zinc ingot visible inventory is low. The port inventory of imported zinc ore in Lianyungang and smelter raw material inventory are at relatively high levels, while the seven - region inventory and smelter finished - product inventory are relatively low [10][11]. - **Profit**: Zinc ore profit is at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profit is at a medium - high level. Mining enterprise profit is stable in the short - term and at a historical medium level. Smelting profit has recovered and is at a historical medium level. The profit of galvanized pipe enterprises is stable and at a medium - low level in the same period [12][13]. - **Start - up Rate**: The smelting start - up rate has recovered to a high level, while the downstream start - up rate is at a historically low level. The zinc concentrate start - up rate has rebounded and is at a historical medium level in the same period. The refined zinc monthly start - up rate has rebounded and is at a high level in the same period. The start - up rates of downstream galvanizing and die - casting zinc have decreased and are at a historically low level [14][15]. 3.3. Trading Aspect - **Spot**: The spot premium has declined from a high level. Overseas premiums are relatively stable, with a slight increase in Antwerp, and the LME CASH - 3M still shows a C structure [17][19]. - **Spread**: The near - end of SHFE Zinc shows a B structure, while the far - end is relatively flat [21]. - **Inventory**: The inventory shows a downward trend, and the open - interest - to - inventory ratio is relatively high. The LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore. The total LME inventory has decreased in the short - term and is at a historical medium level in the same period. The global zinc visible inventory has decreased [25][32][35]. - **Futures**: The domestic open interest is at a relatively high level in the same historical period [36]. 3.4. Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports are at a high level, domestic zinc ore production is at a medium - low level, and the processing fees of domestic and imported ores have rebounded. The ore arrival volume is at a high level, and smelter raw material inventory is abundant and at a historical high level in the same period [39][40]. - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting profit has marginally recovered, and smelting output has marginally recovered. Refined zinc imports are at a historical medium level [41][44]. 3.5. Zinc Demand - **Consumption**: Refined zinc consumption is basically the same as the same period last year [49]. - **Downstream**: The downstream monthly start - up rate has slightly recovered, and most are at a medium - low level in the same historical period. The downstream raw material inventory and finished - product inventory show different trends in different sectors [50][52]. - **Terminal**: The real estate market is still at a low level, while the power grid shows structural increments [61]. 3.6. Overseas Factors - In Europe, electricity prices, natural gas prices, and carbon prices show different trends, and the profitability of zinc smelters in different countries also varies [63].