Summary of Market Transactions and Positions Core Insights - The overall market transactions across various sectors showed a mixed performance, with significant fluctuations in both transaction volumes and positions compared to previous periods [1]. Sector-wise Summary - **Stock Index Sector**: - Transaction volume reached 860.73 billion, down by 15.38% from the previous period - Position amount was 1,381.94 billion, down by 1.89% - Transaction-to-position ratio stood at 61.92% [1] - **Government Bonds Sector**: - Transaction volume was 458.80 billion, down by 20.23% - Position amount was 723.76 billion, down by 1.75% - Transaction-to-position ratio was 64.11% [1] - **Base Metals Sector**: - Transaction volume increased to 358.52 billion, up by 27.67% - Position amount was 523.79 billion, up by 3.58% - Transaction-to-position ratio reached 74.07% [1] - **Precious Metals Sector**: - Transaction volume surged to 477.79 billion, up by 34.69% - Position amount was 504.51 billion, up by 2.04% - Transaction-to-position ratio was notably high at 131.45% [1] - **Energy and Chemicals Sector**: - Transaction volume was 389.62 billion, up by 7.51% - Position amount was 446.53 billion, up by 0.44% - Transaction-to-position ratio was 67.68% [1] - **Agricultural Products Sector**: - Transaction volume decreased to 278.19 billion, down by 4.69% - Position amount was 553.24 billion, up by 0.02% - Transaction-to-position ratio was 42.87% [1] - **Black Building Materials Sector**: - Transaction volume increased to 283.25 billion, up by 5.40% - Position amount was 372.92 billion, down by 1.70% - Transaction-to-position ratio was 77.39% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term market volatility may increase. After important events, China may gradually enter the verification period of the seasonal peak season for fixed - asset investment and consumption, and the pricing weight of fundamentals for assets, especially short - duration commodity assets, may increase. Overseas liquidity will maintain an expansion trend in the next 1 - 2 quarters, entering a "loose expectation + weak US dollar" repair channel, which is expected to support the recovery of total demand and form a positive feedback between sentiment and overseas macro - fundamentals. Attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The US macro - fundamentals are relatively stable, but the political pressure on the Fed has reached a new high, boosting market expectations of interest rate cuts. At the Global Central Bank Annual Meeting in August, Powell's dovish stance exceeded market expectations. On August 25, Trump removed the hawkish Fed governor Cook, further increasing market expectations of interest rate cuts. Currently, the US consumer's willingness to buy real estate, cars, and household durables is fluctuating widely at a low level, and the actual salary growth of US consumers is flat. The ability of residents to consume still awaits the transmission of interest rate cuts. Loose expectations and asset revaluation are expected to have a positive feedback effect on investment and consumption, but sticky service inflation, tariff shocks, and concerns about the Fed's independence remain tail risks [8] - **Domestic Macro**: Market expectations for corporate profit margins have improved. "Anti - involution" has promoted the continued improvement of mid - stream profits in July. Recently, demand - side policies in first - tier cities have been frequently introduced. The marginal relaxation of policies is expected to boost trading volume, but the sustainability remains to be seen. From January to July, the year - on - year decline in the profits of national industrial enterprises above the designated size narrowed to - 1.7%. "Anti - involution" has enabled the raw material processing industry to obtain a larger share of profits, while both upstream mining and downstream consumer goods industries have seen their profits squeezed. The issue of anti - involution still has a long way to go. In the real estate sector, first - tier cities such as Beijing and Shanghai have successively introduced policies to relax purchase restrictions and optimize provident funds. Compared with previous policies, the overall intensity of this round of policies is relatively weak. Structurally, the relaxation of new homes in the suburbs of core cities is relatively stronger, aiming to guide residents to digest the inventory of suburban new homes first, which has a marginal support for developers' liquidity [8] - **Asset Views**: Short - term market volatility may increase. After important events, China may gradually enter the verification period of the seasonal peak season for fixed - asset investment and consumption, and the pricing weight of fundamentals for assets, especially short - duration commodity assets, may increase. Overseas liquidity will maintain an expansion trend in the next 1 - 2 quarters, entering a "loose expectation + weak US dollar" repair channel, which is expected to support the recovery of total demand and form a positive feedback between sentiment and overseas macro - fundamentals. Attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [8] 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial Sector**: For stock index futures, the chips show signs of loosening, and the short - term judgment is volatile upward. For stock index options, the strategy is mainly for hedging and defense, and the short - term judgment is volatile. For treasury bond futures, continue to pay attention to the performance of the stock market, and the short - term judgment is volatile [9] - **Precious Metals**: The expansion of interest rate cut expectations is beneficial to the price. For gold and silver, it is expected that the US interest rate cut cycle may restart in September, but the impact of market risk appetite needs to be noted. The short - term judgment is volatile upward [9] - **Shipping**: For the container shipping route to Europe, the peak season in the third quarter has turned dull, and there is a lack of upward driving force due to loading pressure. The short - term judgment is volatile [9] - **Black Building Materials**: After the parade, there are still upward expectations for the sector. For products such as steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, etc., they are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors for each product [9] - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: The weak US dollar continues to support non - ferrous metals, but the weakening demand also needs to be emphasized. Most products are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors for each product [9] - **Energy and Chemicals**: The weakening of crude oil supply - demand and the decline of coking coal have dragged down the chemical industry. Most products are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors for each product [11] - **Agriculture**: The agricultural sector is in a high - level narrow - range volatility, waiting for the results of field inspections. Most products are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors for each product [11]

转自：新华财经 新华财经北京9月1日电（郭洲洋、吴郑思）国内商品期货市场9月1日涨跌互现，其中多晶硅主力合约涨超6%；沪银主力合约涨超4%；烧碱、沪金主力合约 涨超2%；沪镍、集运欧线、不锈钢、沥青主力合约涨超1%。下跌品种中，焦炭、焦煤、玻璃主力合约跌超3%；碳酸锂、铁矿石、纯碱主力合约跌超2%； 螺纹钢、棉花、热卷、苯乙烯、红枣主力合约跌超1%。 截至1日下午收盘，中证商品期货价格指数收报1431.88点，较前一交易日上涨1.16点，涨幅0.08%；中证商品期货指数收报1977.93点，较前一交易日上涨 1.61点，涨幅0.08%。 相比之下，贵金属上涨受到的基本面支撑更为稳固。在海外现货银价突破40美元／盎司关口并屡创十四年新高的驱动下，沪银早盘时段便大幅拉涨，终盘收 高4.13%，盘中创下上市以来新高至9808元／千克。国际市场现货金价进一步升至3480美元／盎司上方，沪金也再次升破800元／克关口。分析来看，美联 储本月降息预期在近期不断得到强化：不仅鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔年会上暗示将降息，上周五7月PCE指数也基本符合预期，加上美联储多位官员表态或暗示 支持9月降息，这都为贵金属突破夏季波动区间并进一 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The US economic fundamentals remain stable in the short - term but face employment and inflation pressures in the medium - term. The expectation of monetary easing supports market risk appetite. In China, the difficulty of achieving the annual economic target is not high, and market risk appetite may also be supported. Short - term market volatility may increase as important events approach and economic growth slows [7]. - Different asset classes have different outlooks. Domestic market sentiment may remain high until early September, after which the pricing weight of fundamentals on assets may increase. Overseas, the expectation of a September interest rate cut is strengthening, and the overseas macro - monetary environment is expected to become looser [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The US economic fundamentals are stable in the short - term but face employment and inflation pressures in the medium - term. Powell's speech at the annual meeting was dovish, strengthening market expectations of interest rate cuts. US consumer confidence deteriorated in August, and inflation concerns rose again. In the real estate sector, new housing starts increased steadily in July, while building permit issuance continued to decline [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: The domestic economic fundamentals have weakened marginally, but it is still not difficult to achieve the annual economic target. Shanghai has optimized and adjusted real estate policies. The probability of a significant decline in external demand has decreased, and domestic demand remains at a reasonable level. The capital market remains loose, providing support for related assets [7]. - **Asset Views**: In the short - term, the domestic market may maintain high - level sentiment until early September. After important events, the pricing weight of fundamentals on assets, especially short - duration commodity assets, may increase. Overseas, the expectation of a September interest rate cut has strengthened, and the overseas macro - monetary environment is expected to enter a "loose expectation + weak US dollar" repair channel. Short - term market volatility may increase [7]. 3.2 View Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Leveraged funds are crowded, and there is early profit - taking. The decline of incremental funds is a concern. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [8]. - **Stock Index Options**: The bearish side has strong betting. The deterioration of option market liquidity is a concern. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The capital market remains loose, and the yield curve steepens. Concerns include unexpected changes in tariffs, supply, and monetary easing. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: The expectation of a restart of the US interest rate cut cycle in September is positive for prices, but the impact of market risk appetite needs attention. Concerns include US fundamentals, Fed monetary policy, and global equity market trends. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [8]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season in the third quarter is fading, and there is no driving force for price increases. The rate of price decline in September is a concern. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel Products**: The actual support is limited, and the futures prices are under pressure. Concerns include the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and pig iron production. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The daily consumption of imported sinter has decreased, and prices are oscillating within a narrow range. Concerns include overseas mine production and shipment, domestic pig iron production, weather, port inventory, and policy dynamics. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Coke**: The eighth - round negotiation continues, and some coke enterprises are reducing production. Concerns include steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Coking Coal**: Production has decreased, and futures prices continue to be weak. Concerns include steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Silicon Iron**: The black chain is under pressure, and futures prices are weak. Concerns include raw material costs and steel procurement. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The sector remains weak, and futures prices are running weakly. Concerns include cost prices and overseas quotes. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Glass**: Spot sales and production are maintained, and some regions are promoting price stability through price increases. Concerns include spot sales and production. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply has decreased in the short - term, and rigid demand remains. Concerns include soda ash inventory. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: The suspension of Sino - US tariffs has been extended, and copper prices are oscillating at a high level. Concerns include supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - dovish Fed policies, weaker - than - expected domestic demand recovery, and economic recession. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Alumina**: The spot market is weakly stable, and warehouse receipts are increasing. Alumina prices are under pressure and oscillating. Concerns include unexpected delays in ore production resumption, unexpected over - recovery of electrolytic aluminum production, and extreme sector trends. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Aluminum**: Social inventory has slightly accumulated, and aluminum prices are oscillating at a high level. Concerns include macro risks, supply disruptions, and weaker - than - expected demand. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Zinc**: The prices of the black series have fallen, and zinc prices are oscillating downward. Concerns include macro - turning risks and unexpected increases in zinc ore supply. The short - term outlook is oscillatory downward [8]. - **Lead**: Consumption is still unclear, and lead prices are oscillating downward. Concerns include supply - side disruptions and a slowdown in battery exports. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Nickel**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and nickel prices are oscillating widely. Concerns include unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and less - than - expected supply release. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of ferronickel has been rising, and the stainless - steel futures prices are correcting. Concerns include Indonesian policy risks and unexpected growth in demand. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Tin**: Raw material supply remains tight, and tin prices are oscillating at a high level. Concerns include the expected resumption of production in Wa State and changes in demand improvement expectations. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Coal prices are fluctuating, and silicon prices are continuously volatile. Concerns include unexpected production cuts on the supply side and unexpected photovoltaic installations. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The game between bulls and bears continues, and prices are oscillating widely. Concerns include weaker - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure continues, and the sustainability of the rebound is expected to be limited. Concerns include OPEC+ production policies and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. The short - term outlook is oscillatory downward [10]. - **LPG**: The cracking spread has stabilized. Attention should be paid to cost - side guidance. Concerns include the progress of crude oil and overseas propane costs. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Asphalt**: Crude oil prices have fallen, and asphalt futures prices are oscillating downward. Concerns include sanctions and supply disruptions. The short - term outlook is downward [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil prices are following the decline of crude oil. Concerns include geopolitics and crude oil prices. The short - term outlook is downward [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices are oscillating downward following crude oil. Concerns include crude oil prices. The short - term outlook is downward [10]. - **Methanol**: Port inventory has accumulated, but petrochemical news has provided short - term support. Methanol prices are oscillating. Concerns include macro - energy and upstream and downstream device dynamics. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Urea**: Domestic supply and demand cannot provide strong support, and export - driven effects are less than expected. Urea prices are oscillating in the short - term. Concerns include export policy trends and the elimination of production capacity. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Low inventory and peak - season expectations resonate, providing strong support for prices at the lower end. Concerns include fluctuations in coal and oil prices, port inventory rhythm, and unexpected device shutdowns. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **PX**: Emotional stimulation and peak - season promotion. Concerns include significant fluctuations in crude oil prices, macro - abnormalities, and less - than - expected peak - season demand. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [10]. - **PTA**: Supply decreases and demand increases, with an expected inventory reduction from August to October. Concerns include significant fluctuations in crude oil prices, macro - abnormalities, and less - than - expected peak - season demand. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: The peak season for terminal products has started, and yarn mills are mainly focused on capital recovery. Concerns include the purchasing rhythm of downstream yarn mills and unexpected device load reduction. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Bottle Chips**: Inventory has declined, and processing fees are under pressure due to the strong performance of upstream products. Concerns include unexpected production increases by bottle - chip enterprises and a surge in overseas export orders. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Propylene**: In the short - term, it mainly follows the fluctuations of PP. Concerns include oil prices and the domestic macro - environment. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **PP**: News related to Zhonghan Petrochemical has stimulated the market, but fundamental support is limited. PP prices are oscillating. Concerns include oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - environments. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Plastic**: News of anti - internal competition in the petrochemical industry has provided support, and plastic prices have strengthened slightly. Concerns include oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - environments. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Styrene**: Commodity sentiment has improved. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policy details. Concerns include oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **PVC**: Market sentiment has improved, and PVC prices have weakly stabilized. Concerns include expectations, costs, and supply. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Caustic Soda and Oils**: The rebound of spot prices has slowed down, and short - term long positions in the near - month contracts have taken profits. The expectation of a bumper soybean harvest in the US continues, and there is still significant pressure for oil price adjustments. Concerns include market sentiment, production start - up, demand, US soybean weather, and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Protein Meal**: The import and crushing profit of soybeans has declined rapidly. Attention should be paid to the support at the integer - level mark for soybean meal. Concerns include US soybean weather, domestic demand, the macro - environment, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Corn/Starch**: The decline of spot prices has slowed down, and futures prices have rebounded slightly. Concerns include weaker - than - expected demand, the macro - environment, and weather. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Pigs**: Inventory pressure remains, and futures prices continue to be weak. Concerns include breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Rubber**: Prices are following the market sentiment and falling, with little change in its own situation. Concerns include production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Futures prices are following the decline of natural rubber. Concerns include significant fluctuations in crude oil prices. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [10]. - **Pulp**: Prices have been continuously declining, possibly due to pricing based on spruce. Concerns include macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US dollar - denominated quotes. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices are fluctuating within a narrow range. Attention should be paid to the expected purchase price. Concerns include demand and inventory. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Sugar**: The short - term supply pressure has increased, and sugar prices continue to decline. Concerns include imports. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Logs**: Delivery pressure remains high, and log prices are adjusting weakly. Concerns include shipment volume and dispatch volume. The short - term outlook is oscillatory downward [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic commodity futures market showed a widespread decline, with the stock index sector generally falling [1]. - Overseas, after the global central bank summit, the expectation of a September interest rate cut has further strengthened, and the overseas macro - monetary situation is expected to become looser, entering a "loose expectation + weak dollar" repair channel [6]. - In the short term, the high - spirited market sentiment in the domestic market may continue as it approaches important events in early September. After these events, the domestic market may enter the verification period of the seasonal peak season for fixed - asset investment and consumption, and the fundamental factors may play a more important role in pricing assets, especially short - duration commodity assets. The current differentiation between capital and fundamental performance may lead to increased short - term market volatility [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The US economic fundamentals remain stable in the short term, but there are still employment and inflation pressures in the medium term. The market's expectation of interest rate cuts is strengthening. The consumer confidence in the US deteriorated in August, and inflation concerns rose again. In the real estate sector, new housing starts increased steadily in July, while building permits continued to decline [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: The profits of Chinese industrial enterprises have improved, and Shanghai has optimized and adjusted real estate policies. From January to July 2025, the cumulative year - on - year decline in the profits of national large - scale industrial enterprises narrowed to - 1.7% from - 1.8%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of operating income was 2.3%. The probability of a significant decline in external demand has decreased, and domestic demand such as consumption and investment is still at a reasonable level. The capital market remains loose [6]. - **Asset Views**: In the short term, the domestic market may maintain high - spirited sentiment until after important events in early September. Then, the fundamental factors may have a greater impact on asset pricing. Overseas, the expectation of interest rate cuts in September is strengthening, and the overseas macro - monetary situation is expected to become looser. The current market may face increased short - term volatility [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Leveraged funds are crowded, and there is a rush to take profits. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, with attention paid to the decline in incremental funds [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: There is strong betting on the put side. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, with attention paid to the deterioration of option market liquidity [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The capital market remains loose, and the yield curve is steepening. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to unexpected changes in tariffs, supply, and monetary easing [7]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: The expectation of an interest rate cut in the US in September is expanding, which is beneficial to prices. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, with attention paid to the US fundamental performance, the Fed's monetary policy, and the global equity market trend [7]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season in the third quarter is fading, and there is a lack of upward momentum due to loading pressure. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to the rate of freight rate decline in September [7]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel Products**: The real - world support is limited, and the futures price is under pressure. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and iron - making output [7]. - **Iron Ore**: Market sentiment has weakened, and the fundamentals have changed little. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to overseas mine production and shipping, domestic iron - making production, weather conditions, port ore inventory changes, and policy dynamics [7]. - **Coke**: Supply is restricted in some regions, and the eighth round of price increases is emerging. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment [7]. - **Coking Coal**: Market sentiment has declined, and the futures price has回调 significantly. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment [7]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: The black chain is showing a weak trend, and the futures price is under pressure. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to raw material costs and steel procurement [7]. - **Manganese Ferroalloy**: The sector is in a downward adjustment, and the futures price is weakly volatile. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to cost prices and foreign market quotes [7]. - **Glass**: The commodity market sentiment has cooled, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to spot sales [7]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply has decreased in the short term, while rigid demand remains stable. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to soda ash inventory [7]. - **Copper**: The suspension of tariffs between China and the US has been extended, and the copper price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - than - expected dovishness of the Fed, less - than - expected recovery of domestic demand, and economic recession [7]. - **Alumina and Aluminum**: The alumina price is under pressure due to weak and stable spot prices and increasing warehouse receipts. The aluminum price is oscillating at a high level with a slight increase in social inventory. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to unexpected delays in ore production resumption, unexpected increases in electrolytic aluminum production resumption, extreme sector trends, macro - risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand [7]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price has oscillated and declined due to the fall in black - series prices. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, with attention paid to macro - turning risks and unexpected increases in zinc ore supply [7]. - **Lead**: The consumption situation is still unclear, and the lead price has oscillated and declined. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to supply - side disruptions, slowdown in battery exports, unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and unexpected delays in supply release [7]. - **Nickel**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and the nickel price is oscillating widely. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to supply - side disruptions, slowdown in battery exports, unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and unexpected delays in supply release [7]. - **Stainless Steel**: The nickel - iron price has continued to rise, and the stainless - steel futures price has回调. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to Indonesian policy risks and unexpected increases in demand [7]. - **Tin**: The raw material supply is still tight, and the tin price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to the expected resumption of production in Wa State and changes in demand improvement expectations [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The coal price is fluctuating, and the silicon price is continuously volatile. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, with attention paid to unexpected production cuts on the supply side and unexpected increases in photovoltaic installations [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The multi - empty game continues, and the price is oscillating widely. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to less - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs [7]. 3.2.5 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and the sustainability of the rebound is expected to be limited. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, with attention paid to OPEC + production policies and the Middle East geopolitical situation [9]. - **LPG**: The cracking spread has stabilized, and attention should be paid to cost - side guidance. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to cost - side developments such as crude oil and overseas propane [9]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures price has oscillated and declined due to the fall in crude oil prices. The short - term judgment is a downward trend, with attention paid to sanctions and supply disruptions [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil price has risen and then fallen. The short - term judgment is a downward trend, with attention paid to geopolitical factors and crude oil prices [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price has followed the crude oil price and oscillated downward. The short - term judgment is a downward trend, with attention paid to crude oil prices [9]. - **Methanol**: The port inventory has accumulated, but short - term petrochemical news has provided a boost. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to macro - energy factors and upstream and downstream device dynamics [9]. - **Urea**: Domestic supply and demand cannot provide strong support, and the export - driven effect is less than expected. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to export policy trends and the elimination of production capacity [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The low inventory level coincides with the peak - season expectation, providing strong support for the price. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to fluctuations in coal and oil prices, port inventory rhythm, and unexpected device shutdowns [9]. - **PX**: The price is driven by emotional factors and the peak - season effect. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, with attention paid to significant fluctuations in crude oil prices, unexpected macro - changes, and less - than - expected peak - season demand [9]. - **PTA**: Supply is decreasing while demand is increasing, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction from August to October. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, with attention paid to significant fluctuations in crude oil prices, unexpected macro - changes, and less - than - expected peak - season demand [9]. - **Short - Fiber**: The peak season for terminal products has started, and yarn mills are mainly focused on capital recovery. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to the purchasing rhythm of downstream yarn mills and unexpected device production cuts [9]. - **Bottle Chips**: The inventory has decreased, but the processing margin is under pressure due to the strong performance of upstream products. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to unexpected production increases by bottle - chip enterprises and a surge in overseas export orders [9]. - **Propylene**: The price is mainly following the PP price in the short term. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to oil prices and domestic macro - factors [9]. - **PP**: The price is fluctuating due to news from Zhonghan Petrochemical, but the fundamental support is limited. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to oil prices and domestic and foreign macro - factors [9]. - **Plastic**: The plastic price has strengthened slightly due to news from the petrochemical industry. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to oil prices and domestic and foreign macro - factors [9]. - **Styrene**: The commodity market sentiment has improved, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policy details. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [9]. - **PVC**: The market sentiment has been boosted, and the PVC price has weakly stabilized. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to expectations, costs, and supply [9]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price rebound has slowed down, and short - term long positions have taken profits. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to market sentiment, production start - up, and demand [9]. - **Oils and Fats**: The price is continuing to adjust in a volatile manner, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the technical support below. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [9]. - **Protein Meal**: The domestic market has declined due to state - reserve auctions, and the domestic market is weaker than the overseas market. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to US soybean weather, domestic demand, macro - factors, and China - US and China - Canada trade disputes [9]. - **Corn/Starch**: The decline in the spot price has slowed down, and the futures price has rebounded slightly. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to less - than - expected demand, macro - factors, and weather conditions [9]. - **Hogs**: The supply of hogs is abundant, and the price is oscillating at a low level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [9]. 3.2.6 Agriculture - **Rubber**: The rubber price has declined following the market atmosphere, with little change in its own fundamentals. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, with attention paid to产区 weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [9]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The futures price has followed the natural rubber price and weakened. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, with attention paid to significant fluctuations in crude oil prices [9]. - **Pulp**: The price has continued to decline, possibly due to pricing based on spruce. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US dollar - based quotes [9]. - **Cotton**: The low inventory level combined with improved demand provides strong support for the short - term cotton price. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to demand and inventory [9]. - **Sugar**: The supply pressure has increased marginally, and the sugar price has continued to decline. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to imports [9]. - **Logs**: The delivery pressure in the September contract is relatively large, dragging down the far - month contracts. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, with attention paid to shipment volume and dispatch volume [9].

Summary of Market Transactions and Positions as of August 1, 2025 Core Insights - The report provides a detailed overview of transaction volumes and positions across various market sectors, indicating significant changes in trading activity compared to previous periods [1]. Group 1: Stock Index Sector - Stock index transactions amounted to 550.37 billion yuan, showing a decrease of 26.82% from the previous period [1] - The holding amount in this sector was 1103.066 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 3.12% [1] - The transaction-to-holding ratio stood at 49.35% [1] Group 2: Government Bonds Sector - Government bond transactions totaled 382.529 billion yuan, down by 7.03% [1] - The holding amount for government bonds was 865.329 billion yuan, with a slight decrease of 0.25% [1] - The transaction-to-holding ratio was recorded at 44.77% [1] Group 3: Base Metals Sector - Base metals transactions reached 449.204 billion yuan, a significant drop of 25.58% [1] - The holding amount in this sector was 482.903 billion yuan, decreasing by 1.72% [1] - The transaction-to-holding ratio was notably high at 107.44% [1] Group 4: Precious Metals Sector - Precious metals transactions were 278.766 billion yuan, reflecting a substantial decline of 36.55% [1] - The holding amount for precious metals was 438.786 billion yuan, with a minor decrease of 0.28% [1] - The transaction-to-holding ratio was 82.47% [1] Group 5: Energy and Chemicals Sector - Energy and chemicals transactions totaled 447.496 billion yuan, down by 12.28% [1] - The holding amount in this sector was 414.450 billion yuan, showing a slight decrease of 1.19% [1] - The transaction-to-holding ratio was 93.58% [1] Group 6: Agricultural Products Sector - Agricultural products transactions amounted to 320.812 billion yuan, with a minor decrease of 0.97% [1] - The holding amount for agricultural products was 571.980 billion yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 0.67% [1] - The transaction-to-holding ratio was 49.16% [1] Group 7: Black Building Materials Sector - Black building materials transactions reached 495.117 billion yuan, down by 9.48% [1] - The holding amount in this sector was 372.928 billion yuan, decreasing by 1.44% [1] - The transaction-to-holding ratio was notably high at 125.45% [1]

Group 1: US Tariff Policy Developments - The US government has implemented "reciprocal tariffs" ranging from 10% to 41% on various countries and regions, effective August 1 [1][2] - Canada’s tariff rate has been increased from 25% to 35% in response to perceived inaction and retaliatory measures [2] - The new tariffs include specific rates for countries such as Japan, South Korea, and New Zealand at 15%, while Syria faces the highest rate at 41% [1] Group 2: Legal Challenges and Implications - The legality of the "reciprocal tariffs" has been questioned by US federal appellate judges, suggesting that the implementation may exceed congressional authority [2][3] - The case against the tariffs has been brought by multiple states and businesses, with previous rulings indicating potential overreach by the Trump administration [3] Group 3: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - A decline in A-share indices was observed, attributed to profit-taking and a lack of substantial policy support amid uncertainties surrounding US tariff policies [4][6] - The domestic commodity futures market also experienced a downturn, driven by profit-taking and concerns over demand recovery [6][7] - Economic data from the US, including ADP employment figures and GDP growth, exceeded market expectations, contributing to a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve [6][7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment has cooled down, leading to significant declines in coking coal and coke prices, while steel, iron ore, and thermal coal prices are showing oscillatory trends [1][3][5][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The rebar futures contract closed at 3,248 yuan/ton, and the hot-rolled coil main contract closed at 3,397 yuan/ton. The national building materials trading volume was 101,000 tons. Building materials production and sales are basically stable, with little change in inventory, and the overall performance is slightly better than the seasonal average. As costs continue to rise, building materials prices are increasing. Plate production has declined, and the fundamentals are better than the seasonal average, with exports significantly boosting plate consumption. Recently, a series of policies such as anti-involution, expanding domestic demand, and stabilizing growth have been intensively proposed, boosting market sentiment and causing the futures market to rise continuously. However, with the sharp decline in coking coal on Friday night, the market sentiment has cooled down to some extent. Overall, the current fundamentals of the steel market are still good [1] - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to oscillate, while there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the iron ore futures prices oscillated downward. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties declined weakly. Traders' enthusiasm for quoting was average, and most quotes were adjusted according to the market. The total iron ore trading volume at major ports across the country was 1.125 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.61%. In terms of supply, the global iron ore shipments rebounded slightly this period, with a total shipment volume of 32.009 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 918,000 tons. The total arrival volume at 45 ports this period was 22.405 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.307 million tons. In July, there is a seasonal decline in iron ore shipments, but due to the recent increase in iron ore prices, the supply support is stronger than in previous years. In terms of demand, the current hot metal production remains at a high level, and there are no large - scale maintenance plans for steel mills in the short term, so the consumption and demand for iron ore are resilient. In terms of inventory, there is no obvious increase in port inventory. Overall, the fundamentals of the iron ore market are good. In the short term, after the price increase, the market sentiment has cooled down to some extent. In the future, attention should be paid to changes in hot metal production and the floating volume of iron ore at sea [3] - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to oscillate, while there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the coking coal and coke futures were weak throughout the day, and the main contracts of both coking coal and coke hit the daily limit down. In terms of imported Mongolian coal, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has gradually recovered to a high level recently, and there is an expectation of supply restoration. For coking coal, affected by safety and environmental inspections, there are still disruptions in mine - end supply, but the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has increased, and future supply restoration needs to be monitored. In terms of demand, the hot metal production remains at a high level, providing rigid support for coking coal. The price increase has attracted speculative demand and driven consumption. For coke, the third round of price increases has been implemented, compressing the profits of coking enterprises, but the demand remains stable supported by the high - level hot metal production. Currently, the market sentiment has subsided, black building materials prices have generally declined, and terminal demand has weakened due to seasonal factors [5][6] - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke are recommended to adopt an oscillating strategy, while there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, increased rainfall has affected production and sales, resulting in mixed price changes and a cooling of the price - support sentiment. At ports, there is a structural shortage of coal. After the downstream's phased rigid - demand procurement is completed, as the high - temperature range gradually expands, the daily consumption is gradually increasing. Traders are optimistic about the peak - season market, and market quotes are rising. In terms of imports, the price of high - calorie Australian coal is inverted compared with the domestic winning bid price, resulting in low liquidity. Indonesian low - calorie coal has obvious cost - performance advantages, and there are many downstream tenders [7] - **Strategy**: No strategy is provided [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Overseas fundamentals are relatively stable, but the candidate for the new Fed chair is affecting interest - rate cut expectations. Attention should be paid to the implementation of tariffs in early August. The domestic second - quarter economic data shows resilience, and there are expectations for policy games at the end of the month. Domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities, and strategic allocation of resources such as gold and copper should be maintained [6]. - The stagflation trading overseas is cooling down, and the long - short allocation ideas are differentiating. The financial sector maintains a pattern of strong stocks and weak bonds. Precious metals are undergoing short - term adjustments due to rising risk appetite. The shipping sector is seeing a decline in sentiment. The black building materials sector is strongly rising due to favorable supply - demand factors. The non - ferrous and new materials sector is rebounding from a decline. The energy - chemical sector is expected to be dragged down by crude oil and show a weak oscillation. The agricultural sector is experiencing a rapid rise in funds and sentiment [7][9]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: US consumer confidence recovered in June, driving a slight rebound in CPI and retail sales data. The candidates for the new Fed chair generally advocate interest - rate cuts, and the nomination is expected from October to December 2025. Tariff policies may be implemented by August 1st and 12th, with uncertainties remaining [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: China's Q2 GDP grew by 5.2% year - on - year, and June's export volume increased by 5.8% year - on - year, better than market expectations. High - frequency data shows an improvement in infrastructure investment. There are expectations for domestic demand - boosting policies around the end - of - month Politburo meeting. Currently, growth - stabilizing policies mainly focus on using existing resources, with a higher probability of incremental policies in the fourth quarter [6]. - **Asset Views**: Domestic assets offer mainly structural opportunities. Overseas, attention should be paid to tariff frictions, Fed policies, and geopolitical risks. In the long term, the weak - dollar pattern continues. Strategic allocation of resources such as gold and copper should be maintained [6]. 2. Viewpoint Highlights **Macro: Overseas Stagflation Trading Cooling** - **Domestic**: Appropriate reserve - requirement ratio and interest - rate cuts, and implementation of established fiscal policies in the short term [7]. - **Overseas**: The inflation - expectation structure is flattening, economic growth expectations are improving, and stagflation trading is cooling down [7]. **Financial: Continued Strong Stocks and Weak Bonds** - **Stock Index Futures**: The Shanghai Composite Index continues to reach new highs, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory rise, but concerns about insufficient incremental funds [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: High intraday volatility drives short - term trading, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, but concerns about deteriorating option liquidity [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The stock - bond seesaw effect continues, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about unexpected tariffs, supply, and monetary easing [7]. **Precious Metals: Rising Risk Appetite, Short - Term Adjustment** - **Gold/Silver**: Precious metals continue to adjust, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about Trump's tariff policies and Fed's monetary policies [7]. **Shipping: Declining Sentiment, Focus on June Loading Rate** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Focus on the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies [7]. **Black Building Materials: Favorable Supply - Demand, Strong Rise** - **Steel Products**: Positive news drives the market, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about special - bond issuance progress, steel exports, and hot - metal production [7]. - **Iron Ore**: Affected by coal - coke news, prices rise slightly, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about overseas mine production and shipping, domestic hot - metal production, weather, port inventory, and policy dynamics [7]. - **Coke**: Market sentiment is high, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about steel - mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [7]. - **Coking Coal**: Positive news triggers a sharp rise, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about steel - mill production, coal - mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [7]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: Driven by the coking - coal futures limit - up, prices rise significantly, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about raw - material costs and steel procurement [7]. - **Manganese Ferroalloy**: The black chain performs strongly, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about cost prices and overseas quotes [7]. - **Glass**: Rising sentiment drives prices to the limit - up, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about spot sales [7]. - **Soda Ash**: Futures price increases drive spot prices up, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about soda - ash inventory [7]. **Non - Ferrous and New Materials: Tariff Game vs. Policy Stimulus** - **Copper**: The possible early implementation of US copper tariffs pressures prices, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - dovish Fed than expected, and weak domestic demand recovery [7]. - **Alumina**: The impact of warrant registration needs to be observed, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about unexpected slowdown in ore复产, unexpected increase in electrolytic - aluminum复产, and extreme sector trends [7]. - **Aluminum**: Inventory accumulation shows fluctuations, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about macro risks, supply disruptions, and insufficient demand [7]. - **Zinc**: The rebound of the black series boosts prices, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory decline, and concerns about macro - turning risks and unexpected increase in zinc - ore supply [7]. - **Lead**: Supported by cost and with inventory accumulation, prices oscillate, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about supply - side disruptions and slowdown in battery exports [7]. - **Nickel**: The long - term trend is oscillatory decline after the opening of the LME Hong Kong delivery warehouse, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and insufficient supply release [7]. - **Stainless Steel**: Affected by weak nickel - iron prices, prices oscillate, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about Indonesian policy risks and unexpected demand growth [7]. - **Tin**: Supported by strong supply - demand fundamentals, prices have a strong bottom, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about the复产 expectation in Wa State and demand improvement [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Prices rise under the "anti - involution" sentiment, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about unexpected supply cuts and unexpected photovoltaic installations [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Driven by supply - side speculation, prices oscillate strongly, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about insufficient demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs [7]. **Energy - Chemical: OPEC+ Over - Production, Crude Oil Drag** - **Crude Oil**: Prices are under pressure at high levels, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about OPEC+ production policies and Middle - East geopolitical situations [9]. - **LPG**: The fundamental situation remains loose, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about cost factors such as crude oil and overseas propane [9]. - **Asphalt**: Spot prices of major producers decline, with a short - term judgment of decline, and concerns about unexpected demand [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Prices are under great downward pressure, with a short - term judgment of decline, and concerns about crude - oil and natural - gas prices [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Prices follow crude oil and weaken oscillatory, with a short - term judgment of decline, and concerns about crude - oil and natural - gas prices [9]. - **Methanol**: Boosted by coal in the short term, prices oscillate strongly, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics [9]. - **Urea**: Domestic supply - demand cannot provide strong support, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about export - policy trends and elimination of production capacity [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply and demand both decline, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory rise, and concerns about the production - cut rhythm of filament factories and the return of overseas devices [9]. - **PX**: Supported by crude - oil costs and affected by unexpected device disruptions, prices fluctuate with costs, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about device recovery and new PTA capacity investment [9]. - **PTA**: Supply increases while demand decreases, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about the production - cut rhythm of filament factories and the commissioning of Sanfangxiang [9]. - **Short - Fiber**: The upstream cost rebounds, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about terminal textile and clothing exports [9]. - **Bottle Chip**: Device production cuts are implemented, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about future bottle - chip operation [9]. - **Propylene**: After a strong debut, prices may oscillate in the short term, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about oil prices and domestic macro - situation [9]. - **PP**: Driven by multiple factors, prices oscillate upward, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [9]. - **Plastic**: Boosted by multiple factors, prices oscillate strongly, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [9]. - **Styrene**: The commodity sentiment improves, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [9]. - **PVC**: Sentiment warms up again, with a short - term judgment of cautious optimism, and concerns about expectations, costs, and supply [9]. - **Caustic Soda**: With strong expectations and weak reality, prices have a weak rebound, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about market sentiment, operation, and demand [9]. **Agriculture: Capital Sentiment Boosts Prices** - **Oils and Fats**: Prices oscillate and diverge, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about US soybean weather and Malaysian palm - oil supply - demand data [9]. - **Protein Meal**: Spot prices do not rise as much as futures, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about US soybean weather, domestic demand, macro - situation, and Sino - US and Sino - Canada trade wars [9]. - **Corn/Starch**: Spot prices oscillate strongly at low arrivals, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about insufficient demand, macro - situation, and weather [9]. - **Pig**: Driven by the "anti - involution" sentiment, far - month contracts rise, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory rise, and concerns about breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [9]. - **Rubber**: Market bullish sentiment remains, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory rise, and concerns about production - area weather, raw - material prices, and macro - changes [9]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Prices follow the overall commodity trend, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory rise, and concerns about significant crude - oil price fluctuations [9]. - **Pulp**: Driven by the macro - situation, it is recommended for long - position allocation, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory rise, and concerns about macro - economic changes and US - dollar - denominated quotes [9]. - **Cotton**: Supported by low inventory, prices oscillate, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about demand and output [9]. - **Sugar**: Rising imports increase upward resistance, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about abnormal weather [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas fundamentals are relatively stable, with the new Fed Chair nominee affecting interest - rate cut expectations. Attention should be paid to the progress of tariff implementation in early August. The long - term weak - dollar pattern continues, and non - dollar assets are worth focusing on [6]. - China's Q2 economic data shows resilience, with export performance better than market expectations. The current pro - growth policies mainly focus on using existing resources, and the probability of incremental policies is higher in Q4. Domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities [6]. - The logic of policy - driven investment is strengthened in the second half of the year, and the probability of incremental policies in Q4 is higher. Strategic allocation of resources such as gold and copper should be maintained [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: US consumer confidence recovered in June, driving a slight rebound in CPI and retail sales. The potential Fed Chair nominees generally advocate interest - rate cuts, and the nomination is expected between October and December 2025. US tariff policies on other countries and China may be implemented before August 1st and 12th [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: China's Q2 GDP grew by 5.2% year - on - year, and June's export value increased by 5.8% year - on - year, better than expected. High - frequency data shows an increase in infrastructure work, and investment fundamentals have improved. As the Politburo meeting approaches, the market anticipates domestic - demand boosting policies. Currently, pro - growth policies focus on using existing resources, and incremental policies are more likely in Q4 [6]. - **Asset Views**: Domestic assets offer mainly structural opportunities. Attention should be paid to the details of "anti - involution" policies. Overseas, factors such as tariff frictions, Fed policies, and geopolitical risks should be monitored. A long - term weak - dollar pattern is expected, and strategic allocation of resources like gold and copper is recommended [6]. 3.2 View Highlights Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Positive expectations for "anti - involution" policies are hard to disprove, but there is a lack of incremental funds [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: Market sentiment fluctuates, and selling options dominate, with deteriorating option liquidity [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond yield curve continues to steepen, and attention should be paid to unexpected tariff changes, supply, and monetary easing [7]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver continue to adjust, and attention should be paid to Trump's tariff policies and Fed's monetary policies [7]. Shipping - For container shipping to Europe, attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation, as well as tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies [7]. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: The market is affected by macro factors and fluctuates at high levels. Attention should be paid to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and hot - metal production [7]. - **Iron Ore**: Hot - metal production slightly rebounds, and the market fluctuates strongly. Attention should be paid to overseas mine production and shipment, domestic hot - metal production, weather, port ore inventory, and policy dynamics [7]. - **Coke**: The first round of price increases is about to be implemented, and there are strong expectations for a second - round increase. Attention should be paid to steel production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [7]. - **Coking Coal**: Mongolian coal resumes customs clearance, and the market fluctuates. Attention should be paid to steel production, coal - mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [7]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: Market sentiment cools, and prices decline weakly. Attention should be paid to raw material costs and steel procurement [7]. - **Manganese Ferroalloy**: Policy falls short of expectations, and the market fluctuates weakly. Attention should be paid to cost prices and overseas quotes [7]. - **Glass**: Market sentiment declines, and short - term fundamental contradictions are limited. Attention should be paid to spot sales [7]. - **Soda Ash**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and spot prices keep falling. Attention should be paid to soda - ash inventory [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: The possible early implementation of US tariffs on copper pressures copper prices. Attention should be paid to supply disruptions, domestic policy surprises, Fed's hawkish stance, and domestic demand recovery [7]. - **Alumina**: The scale of warehouse - receipt registration needs to be observed, and the market declines. Attention should be paid to unexpected ore production resumption, excessive electrolytic - aluminum production resumption, and extreme market trends [7]. - **Aluminum**: The inventory - accumulation rhythm fluctuates, and prices fluctuate. Attention should be paid to macro risks, supply disruptions, and insufficient demand [7]. - **Zinc**: The rebound of the black - metal sector boosts zinc prices, and short - selling opportunities should be watched. Attention should be paid to macro - turning risks and unexpected increases in zinc - ore supply [7]. - **Lead**: Cost support is stable, and inventory accumulates. Prices fluctuate. Attention should be paid to supply - side disruptions and slow battery exports [7]. - **Nickel**: With the opening of the LME's Hong Kong delivery warehouse, nickel prices are expected to decline in the long term. Attention should be paid to unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policies, and insufficient supply [7]. - **Stainless Steel**: Nickel - iron prices are weak, and the market fluctuates. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and unexpected demand growth [7]. - **Tin**: The supply - demand fundamentals are resilient, and prices are strongly supported at the bottom. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Wa State and demand improvement expectations [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Silicon prices rise under the "anti - involution" sentiment, and attention should be paid to warehouse - receipt changes. Attention should be paid to unexpected supply - side production cuts and excessive photovoltaic installations [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply disruptions are hyped, and prices fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to insufficient demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs [7]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances. The market is expected to decline [9]. - **LPG**: The market returns to trading a loose fundamental situation and may decline [9]. - **Asphalt**: "Anti - involution" trading keeps the asphalt - fuel oil price spread high, and the market is expected to decline [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High supply and "anti - involution" factors lead to a weakening market, which is expected to decline [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Rotterdam's low - sulfur marine fuel is largely replaced by high - sulfur fuel, and the market is expected to decline [9]. - **Methanol**: Low domestic production counters increasing imports, and the market fluctuates [9]. - **Urea**: The domestic supply - demand imbalance persists, and exports are needed. The market may fluctuate [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The basis is stable, and plants are restarting. The market is expected to rise [9]. - **PX**: Crude - oil prices are stable, and PX fluctuates strongly [9]. - **PTA**: Supply - demand weakens, but the cost of PX is strong. The market fluctuates [9]. - **Short - Fiber**: The basis declines, and processing fees increase. The market is expected to rise [9]. - **Bottle Chips**: Maintenance begins, and processing fees reach the bottom. The market fluctuates [9]. - **PP**: News of petrochemical growth boosts the market, which fluctuates [9]. - **Plastic**: Production is expected to increase next week, and the market fluctuates [9]. - **Styrene**: There is no clear market driver, and the market is expected to decline [9]. - **PVC**: Market sentiment warms up again, and the market fluctuates [9]. - **Caustic Soda**: Expectations for growth are strong, and the market is cautiously optimistic [9]. - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil leads the rise in oils and fats, but attention should be paid to inventory - accumulation pressure in producing areas. The market is expected to rise [9]. - **Protein Meal**: Concerns about China's counter - measures against Canada drive up rapeseed meal prices. The market is expected to rise [9]. - **Corn/Starch**: Spot supply is locally tight, and prices fluctuate weakly. The market is expected to decline [9]. - **Hogs**: Supply is abundant, and prices are under pressure. The market fluctuates [9]. Agriculture - **Rubber**: Positive sentiment drives up prices, and the market fluctuates [9]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market rebounds after a decline and fluctuates [9]. - **Pulp**: The market is dominated by macro factors and fluctuates. Attention should be paid to macro - economic changes and US dollar - based price quotes [9]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices rise with increasing positions and reach new highs. Attention should be paid to demand and production [9]. - **Sugar**: Sugar prices rise slightly and fluctuate [9]. - **Logs**: Delivery continues, and prices rise with increasing positions. Attention should be paid to shipment and delivery volumes. The market is expected to decline [9].