Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US delays the G7 plan to expand the use of frozen Russian assets, indicating an intention to reduce tensions before Trump meets Putin, leading to a rise in market risk appetite [17]. - Affected by news such as Sino - US negotiations, on October 20, the A - share market rose with shrinking volume. Currently, market liquidity is rapidly contracting, and there is a strong wait - and - see sentiment. Future trends depend on domestic and foreign policy changes [2]. - During the Fourth Plenary Session, there are relatively many policies. It is advisable to be cautious in the short - term. If the market risk preference fails to strengthen, the bond market will turn stronger [25]. - The cost of imported soybeans supports the soybean meal price, but the current supply - demand situation is weak, and sufficient soybean supply is expected in the fourth quarter. The soybean meal futures price is likely to remain volatile [4]. - In September, economic data continued to show structural differentiation. The overall terminal demand was weak, with real estate and infrastructure demand remaining sluggish and manufacturing showing resilience. High pig iron production will suppress the subsequent inventory reduction speed, limiting the upward space for steel prices [5]. - The continuous inventory reduction during the peak season supports the lithium carbonate price, but further upward momentum may depend on unexpected supply - side disruptions [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US government continues to be shut down. The gold price hit a new high, and overseas gold and silver ETF holdings increased, while the domestic market was weak. Gold is expected to fluctuate at a high level this week, and attention should be paid to the callback risk [13]. - Investment advice: The gold price will fluctuate at a high level in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the callback risk caused by long - position profit - taking [14]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US and Australia signed a key minerals agreement, and the US Senate will "pause" the new round of sanctions against Russia. The US delays the G7 plan to expand the use of frozen Russian assets, indicating an intention to reduce tensions before Trump meets Putin, and market risk preference has recovered [15][16][17]. - Investment advice: The US dollar is expected to decline in the short - term [18]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China's GDP in the third quarter increased by 4.8% year - on - year. Affected by news such as Sino - US negotiations, on October 20, the A - share market rose with shrinking volume. Currently, market liquidity is rapidly contracting, and there is a strong wait - and - see sentiment [2][19]. - Investment advice: Allocate various stock indices evenly [21]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The LPR quotation in October remained stable. China's economic data in September showed differentiation. The bond market fluctuated and declined today due to Trump's softened stance towards China, but market risk preference has not been strongly activated [22][23][24]. - Investment advice: Be cautious in short - term trading this week. If market risk preference fails to strengthen, look for opportunities to build long - term long positions at low prices [25]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - On October 20, the steam coal price in the northern port market was strong. The downstream demand increased last week, and the coal price rose. After the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway maintenance ends, the supply of port spot will increase, and the coal price increase is expected to narrow this week [26]. - Investment advice: The coal price will remain strong in the short - term [26]. 2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - Fenix Resources' iron ore production in the third quarter increased significantly. The iron ore price continued to be weak and volatile. The terminal orders weakened, the steel mill inventory pressure increased, and the steel mill profit was compressed. It is expected that the pig iron production will decline in November [27]. - Investment advice: The potential for production cuts is approaching. The iron ore price will remain weak in the short - term, but the downward valuation space is limited [27]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - As of October 17, the inspection volume of US cotton was slow. In September, the export unit price of cotton products rebounded slightly month - on - month. China imported 100,000 tons of cotton and 130,000 tons of cotton yarn in September [28][29][30]. - Investment advice: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price has been resistant to decline recently. However, as the new cotton is listed, the hedging pressure will limit the upward space, and the downstream orders are insufficient. Attention should be paid to the new cotton listing, downstream orders, and Sino - US relations [31][32]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - As of October 17, the national port soybean inventory decreased, the soybean inventory of major oil mills increased, the soybean meal inventory decreased, and the unexecuted contracts decreased. In September, China imported 0 tons of soybeans from the US, and the Brazilian soybean planting rate reached 24% [34][35][36]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the weather in the Brazilian production area and Sino - US relations. The soybean meal futures price is likely to remain volatile [36]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - From October 1 to 20, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil increased by 3.4% month - on - month. As of October 17, the domestic palm oil inventory increased slightly [37][38]. - Investment advice: The market lacks driving forces in the short - term and is expected to remain volatile. In the long - term, pay attention to the long - position opportunities of palm oil [39][40]. 2.6 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - From January to September, China's infrastructure investment increased by 1.1% year - on - year. In the first three quarters, China's steel exports showed different trends, and the real estate investment continued to decline. The overall terminal demand was weak, and the high pig iron production limited the upward space for steel prices [41][42][44]. - Investment advice: Adopt a volatile trading strategy for steel prices in the short - term [46]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Jujube) - In Xinjiang, jujubes in some areas are in the drying stage. The futures price of the main contract CJ601 fluctuated and closed down today. The price of jujubes in the distribution areas is stable, and merchants purchase goods as needed [47][48]. - Investment advice: Wait and see before the market logic becomes clear. Pay attention to the price game in the production area and downstream consumption [48]. 2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - On October 20, the theoretical profits of corn starch enterprises in different regions showed differentiation. In the future, the inventory pressure and production reduction expectations of starch may be mainly concentrated in the Northeast [49]. - Investment advice: The price difference between starch and corn futures is expected to recover after entering the delivery month. The price difference of 01 and 03 contracts is at a low level and is not expected to shrink further [49]. 2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The domestic corn price is rising. Snowy weather and farmers' reluctance to sell have led to a decrease in downstream arrivals. The spot price is expected to decline, while the futures price may enter a volatile bottom - grinding period [50]. - Investment advice: Wait and see in the short - term. Pay attention to the implementation of wheat auction rumors [50]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - In September, China's polysilicon export volume decreased by 28.17% month - on - month. The spot price of polysilicon is expected to remain stable. The terminal demand has weakened marginally since late October, and the silicon wafer price is under pressure [51][52]. - Investment advice: Maintain the view that the spot price will not decline in October. Consider long - position opportunities when the futures price is at a discount to the spot price. Pay attention to the reverse spread opportunity of PS2511 - PS2512 at around - 2000 yuan/ton [53]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - In September, China's industrial silicon export volume increased by 7.73% year - on - year. Some silicon plants in the South are expected to reduce production in late October. The inventory is expected to be difficult to reduce in November and will be reduced by 15,000 tons in December [54][55]. - Investment advice: It is more cost - effective to go long on industrial silicon at low prices [55]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - On October 17, the LME0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $41.85/ton. In September, the import of lead concentrates increased month - on - month and decreased year - on - year. The export of lead - acid batteries decreased, and the import increased [55][56]. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading. Pay attention to the medium - term positive spread opportunity for cross - market trading [56]. 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Vedanta's zinc concentrate production in the third quarter increased by 6%. In September, the export volume of galvanized sheets increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The import volume of zinc concentrates increased [57][58][60]. - Investment advice: Wait and see for single - side trading. Pay attention to the medium - term positive spread opportunity. Maintain a positive spread trading strategy for cross - market trading and take profits in batches at low prices [61]. 2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - In September, China's unforged nickel import volume increased significantly, especially from Russia. The short - term macro situation is still volatile. The global visible inventory has increased significantly, and the price is fluctuating above the cash cost. The nickel ore price is expected to rise in the fourth quarter [62]. - Investment advice: Allocation portfolios can consider long - position opportunities at low prices. Speculative portfolios can consider selling near - the - money put options and buying deep - out - of - the - money call options [63]. 2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - In September, China's lithium ore import volume increased by 14.7% month - on - month. The first batch of lithium concentrate from the Bougouni lithium project was shipped. The inventory has been decreasing, which supports the price, but further upward momentum depends on supply - side disruptions [64][66]. - Investment advice: Use range - bound trading in the short - term. Consider short - position opportunities after the demand peaks this year. Pay attention to the reverse spread opportunity of LC2511 - LC2601 and the positive spread opportunity of LC2601 against more distant contracts [67]. 2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Peru's Las Bambas copper mine is being affected by illegal mining. In September, China's scrap copper import volume increased by 14.84% year - on - year [68][69]. - Investment advice: The copper price is expected to remain volatile at a high level in the short - term. Consider long - position opportunities at low prices for single - side trading. Wait and see for spread trading [70]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - Guangzhou Petrochemical's partial device maintenance has reduced the liquefied gas production. The East China liquefied gas price has declined due to factors such as fundamental imbalance and falling paper - futures prices [71][72]. - Investment advice: The price is expected to remain volatile in the short - term [73]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - A Russian refinery was affected by a drone attack. The oil price is weak and volatile. Market risk preference supports the oil price, but concerns about supply surplus continue to put pressure on it [74]. - Investment advice: The oil price will remain weak and volatile in the short - term [75]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market price has been slightly stronger. The downstream procurement enthusiasm is low, and the spot trading is light. The PVC fundamentals remain weak, and the inventory is high [76][77][78]. - Investment advice: The PVC price is expected to remain weak and volatile in the short - term, and the downward space is limited [78]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - As of October 20, the styrene inventory in the East China main port increased. The styrene price declined, and the inventory is a key issue. The production profit has decreased, and the cost support is not obvious [79]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the negative feedback of pure benzene downstream products. The styrene industry needs a low - profit level to slow down the inventory accumulation in the main port [80]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - As of October 20, the asphalt factory and social inventories decreased. The BU futures price was weak last week, and the spot price continued to decline. The demand recovery is limited, and the weak international oil price may affect the asphalt price [81][82]. - Investment advice: The asphalt price will be volatile in the short - term [83]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - As of October 20, the domestic soda ash factory inventory increased slightly. The soda ash futures price rose and then fell, affected by the bearish sentiment in the glass market. The downstream demand is stable, and the inventory in the delivery warehouse is high [84]. - Investment advice: Adopt a short - selling strategy at high prices for soda ash in the medium - term, and pay attention to the new capacity release [84]. 2.23 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - On October 20, the float glass price in the Hubei market declined. The glass futures price continued to fall due to the failure of supply - reduction expectations and the cooling of macro - positive expectations [85]. - Investment advice: Wait and see in the short - term as the market is bearish, but the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, and the risk of short - selling is high [85].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Despite the US federal government shutdown for over two weeks and delayed release of key economic data, the US dollar index has not significantly declined recently. This is driven by data vacuum, the "comparative disadvantage logic" of major non - US currencies, and geopolitical risks pushing up market risk - aversion. The asset reallocation from non - US currencies to commodities also indirectly supports the US dollar. However, the USD/CNY exchange rate is expected to remain stable within a reasonable range under the "stability - first" policy of the Chinese central bank, especially before the important meeting at the end of October [1][17][19]. Summary by Relevant Directory 1. Weekly Market Review and Outlook 1.1 Foreign Exchange Market Review - Last week's foreign exchange market was dominated by policy variables (new trade war risks and Fed's monetary policy signals) and the impact of the US government shutdown. The market was immune to the new trade war risks, and the Fed Chair Powell's dovish signal boosted market liquidity expectations. The euro was positively affected by the Fed's signal and short - term political stability in Europe; the yen was affected by Japan's political uncertainty; the US dollar index depreciated, and the offshore RMB, yen, euro, and pound appreciated against the US dollar, while the on - shore RMB slightly depreciated [2][4][5]. 1.2 Weekly Review of USD/CNY Spot Exchange Rate - The USD/CNY spot exchange rate showed a "rising first then falling" volatile trend last week. Key events included Fed Chair Powell's dovish signal on the balance - sheet reduction process, which was due to short - term liquidity tightness in the US money market. China released September CPI and PPI data, with CPI showing signs of improvement and PPI expected to continue improving but unlikely to turn positive this year [11][12][14]. 1.3 Market Outlook - The US dollar index's short - term strength is supported by multiple factors. However, under the Chinese central bank's policy of maintaining RMB exchange rate stability, the USD/CNY spot exchange rate is expected to remain stable within a reasonable range before the end of October [17][19]. 1.4 Strategy Suggestion - It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach [20]. 2. RMB Market Observation 2.1 Policy Tool Tracking - Counter - Cyclical Factor - As of last Friday, the central parity rate of the USD/CNY exchange rate depreciated by 99 basis points. The counter - cyclical factor indicates that the central bank's attitude towards the exchange rate has shifted from neutral to stabilizing the exchange rate (in the direction of RMB depreciation expectations) [22]. 2.2 Investor Expectations and Sentiment Tracking - **Enterprise Sector Expectations**: In August, China's foreign exchange market was stable, with active trading and balanced supply and demand. Cross - border funds had a net inflow, and bank settlement and sales had a surplus [26]. - **Overseas Investor Expectations**: As of last Friday, the spread between offshore and on - shore RMB showed that overseas investors' depreciation sentiment towards the RMB had declined [30]. - **Professional Investor Expectations**: As of last Friday, the 1 - year NDF closing price of the USD/CNH slightly declined, and the sentiment in the market changed little, with only a slight increase in short - term depreciation sentiment towards the RMB [32]. 2.3 Derivatives Market Tracking - **Hong Kong RMB Futures Market**: Relevant charts show the price trends and basis differences of the Hong Kong Exchange's USD/CNH futures contracts [37][38]. - **Singapore RMB Futures Market**: Relevant charts show the price trends and basis differences of the Singapore Exchange's USD/CNH futures contracts [40][41]. 3. Key Data and Events to Watch 3.1 Weekly Global Key Events Review - **China**: In September, China's foreign trade increased year - on - year; economic policies were continuously promoted, including central bank operations, data releases of M1, M2, CPI, and PPI, and statements on maintaining RMB exchange rate stability [46][47]. - **US**: Economists raised the US economic growth forecast, but employment growth was expected to be weak. There were trade frictions, government shutdown issues, and differences in Fed members' views on interest rate cuts [49][51][56]. - **UK**: The unemployment rate rose, and the private - sector wage growth slowed, triggering an upgrade in interest - rate cut expectations [53]. - **Eurozone**: Germany's economy was unlikely to recover in the third quarter [54]. - **Japan**: No significant events were reported [54]. - **Others**: The IMF raised the world economic growth forecast for 2025 and warned about the global public debt issue [54][55]. 3.2 Weekly Global Central Bank Key Statements Summary - Different central banks, including the Chinese central bank, the Fed, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the Reserve Bank of Australia, had various statements on monetary policies, interest rate cuts, and exchange rate stability [55][56][59]. 3.3 This Week's Key Financial and Economic Data and Events to Watch - A series of important economic data from China, the US, Canada, Japan, and the UK, as well as central bank speeches, are to be released this week [63]. 4. International Related Market Conditions 4.1 Exchange Rates of Major Countries - Charts show the trends of exchange rates between the US dollar and major currencies such as the euro, yen, pound, etc. [64][66][70]. 4.2 Linkage of Major Asset Classes - Charts show the trends of major assets including gold, crude oil, stock indices, etc., and their relationships [84][85][86]. 4.3 Capital Situation - Charts show central bank open - market operations, Shibor quotes, and SOFR quotes [94][96]. 4.4 Sino - US Interest Rate Spread - Charts show the trends of Sino - US interest rate spreads and the yields of 10 - year US and Chinese treasury bonds [98][99]. 4.5 RMB Exchange Rate Index - Charts show the trends of three major RMB exchange rate indices [102]. 4.6 Global Economic and Trade Friction Tracking - Charts show the monthly values of the global economic and trade friction index and the year - on - year and month - on - month changes in the amount involved in global economic and trade friction measures [104][106].

Group 1: Market Overview - Global financial markets experienced significant volatility this week due to geopolitical tensions and policy expectations, with a shift between risk and safe-haven assets [1][3] - The price of gold reached a historical high of $4,379 before retreating over 2% to around $4,240, influenced by a more moderate stance from Trump on tariffs against China [1] - The U.S. dollar index (DXY) rebounded to 98.40, ending a four-day decline, supported by comments from Federal Reserve officials regarding the 2% inflation target [2] Group 2: Commodity Performance - Oil prices continued to face pressure, with WTI crude reaching a five-month low of $56.5 per barrel, driven by an unexpected increase in U.S. crude inventories and concerns over oversupply [2] - Despite short-term adjustments, central banks' ongoing accumulation of gold and the trend of de-dollarization provide medium to long-term support for gold prices [1] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Future Outlook - Upcoming focus will be on U.S. CPI and PCE inflation data, which will be critical in determining the direction of the dollar and the stability of gold prices around the $4,200 support level [3] - The interplay between geopolitical events, such as the U.S. government shutdown and trade tensions, continues to add uncertainty to market conditions [3]

Core Insights - The foreign exchange market in China is projected to reach a trading volume of $41 trillion in 2024, representing a 37.4% increase from 2020 [1] - The scale of cross-border receipts and payments is expected to be $14 trillion in 2024, marking a 64% growth compared to 2020 [1] - From 2021 to mid-2025, net foreign investment inflow into China is anticipated to exceed $740 billion [1] Group 1: International Balance of Payments - China's international balance of payments has maintained basic equilibrium, which is crucial for promoting internal and external economic balance [2] - The average annual scale of goods trade imports and exports from 2021 to 2024 is nearly $6 trillion, a 43% increase compared to the average during the 13th Five-Year Plan [2] - The net foreign investment inflow into China from 2021 to mid-2025 is over $740 billion, with external financial assets exceeding $11 trillion and liabilities over $7.2 trillion by mid-2025 [2] Group 2: Resilience of the Foreign Exchange Market - The resilience of the foreign exchange market has improved, enhancing its ability to withstand external shocks [3] - The percentage of enterprises using foreign exchange hedging has increased from 17% in 2020 to approximately 30% [3] - The share of the renminbi in cross-border trade has risen from 16% to nearly 30%, significantly reducing foreign exchange risk exposure for enterprises [3] Group 3: Efficient Allocation of Foreign Exchange Resources - The foreign exchange market has become more complete and deeper, with a variety of products available, including spot, forward, swap, and options [4] - As of mid-2023, 703 banks and 115 non-bank institutions are participating in the interbank foreign exchange market, including 296 foreign institutions [4] - The renminbi has maintained its position as the fifth most traded currency globally, with a global trading share of 8.5%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points since 2022 [4] Group 4: Benefits for Enterprises and Citizens - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange has focused on optimizing policy supply to enhance convenience for enterprises and citizens during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [5] - By September 2025, approximately $4.7 trillion in convenience-related transactions have been processed nationwide [6] - The introduction of a "one-stop" service for trade foreign exchange business management aims to reduce the administrative burden on enterprises [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Argentine peso is expected to face further devaluation despite U.S. financial support, as market confidence in the government's ability to stabilize the currency diminishes [1][3][5] Group 1: U.S. Intervention and Market Reaction - On October 16, U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra announced intervention in the Argentine foreign exchange market, selling dollars and buying pesos to provide support, with potential aid increasing to $40 billion [1] - The intervention temporarily stabilized the exchange rate, preventing the peso from falling below 1,400 pesos per dollar [1] - However, market sentiment has shifted, with investors increasingly skeptical about the government's ability to maintain the exchange rate, leading to a surge in dollar purchases for hedging [3][5] Group 2: Political Uncertainty and Economic Pressure - Political uncertainty surrounding the upcoming elections on October 26 has heightened concerns about the government's reform agenda and potential policy reversals [5][6] - The Argentine government has raised short-term interest rates to an astonishing 157% in an attempt to absorb peso liquidity, which is putting additional strain on the already fragile economy [3][5] - Since the lifting of currency purchase restrictions in April, unofficial net dollar purchases have reached $18 billion, averaging about $400 per person [5][6] Group 3: Historical Context and Economic Indicators - Analysts draw parallels between the current situation in Argentina and historical events, such as the 1992 British pound crisis, where limited reserves and market speculation led to significant currency devaluation [7][9] - The peso is perceived as overvalued, with inflation rising by 12% since April, further questioning the sustainability of government interventions [9] - The Argentine government's measures to curb capital flight have resulted in tighter credit conditions, with local financing costs significantly increasing and bond yields surpassing 100% [9]

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) against the US dollar (USD) is experiencing a downward trend, currently at 0.6469, with a decline of 0.23% [1] - Australia's unemployment rate surged to 4.5% in September, the highest in four years and exceeding the market expectation of 4.3%, increasing the likelihood of an interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia on November 4 [1] - The rise in unemployment has led to a decrease in the three-year government bond yield, indicating a shift in market sentiment [1] Group 2 - Technically, the AUD/USD exchange rate has slightly recovered from a seven-week low of 0.6441, but the overall trend remains weak, with resistance levels at 0.6515 and 0.6523 [2] - A long-legged doji candlestick pattern has formed, providing a brief respite for bulls, yet the price remains constrained by the 10-day, 21-day, and 55-day moving averages [2] - The monthly relative strength index continues to show weakness, indicating that the overall downward pressure on the AUD is still in place, requiring a breakthrough of moving average resistance for upward movement [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views - There is no information about the core views of the report in the provided content. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - year Treasury Bond Yields**: On October 16, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury bond yields of major economies showed various values and changes. For example, the US was 4.034, with a one - week change of - 0.105, a one - month change of - 0.013, and a one - year change of 0.021. Japan was 3.503, with a one - week change of - 0.091, a one - month change of - 0.042, and a one - year change of - 0.456 [3]. - **2 - year Treasury Bond Yields**: Also on October 16, 2025, the 2 - year Treasury bond yields of some major economies were presented. The US was 3.480, with a one - week change of - 0.150, a one - month change of - 0.130, and a one - year change of - 0.180. Japan was 0.913, with a one - week change of - 0.012, a one - month change of 0.064, and a one - year change of 0.514 [3]. - **Dollar - to - Major Emerging Economies Currency Exchange Rates**: As of October 16, 2025, the dollar - to - major emerging economies currency exchange rates had different values and changes. For the Brazilian real, it was 5.521 on that day, with a one - week change of 2.82%, a one - month change of 2.07%, and a one - year change of - 0.24%. The on - shore RMB was 7.135, with a one - week change of 0.07%, a one - month change of 0.20%, and a one - year change of 1.02% [3]. - **Major Economies' Stock Indexes**: On October 16, 2025, major economies' stock indexes had their respective closing values and changes. The S&P 500 closed at 6552.510, with a one - week change of - 2.71%, a one - month change of 0.31%, and a one - year change of 13.93%. The Hang Seng Index closed at 26290.320, with a one - week change of - 1.73%, a one - month change of 0.34%, and a one - year change of 25.63% [3]. - **Credit Bond Indexes**: On October 16, 2025, the US investment - grade credit bond index was 3529.690, with a one - week change of 0.34%, a one - month change of 0.28%, and a one - year change of 5.19%. The emerging economies' high - yield credit bond index was 1746.620, with a one - week change of - 0.45%, a one - month change of - 0.08%, and a one - year change of 10.98% [3][4]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: The A - share closed at 3916.23 with a 0.10% increase. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 closed at 4618.42 with a 0.26% increase [5]. - **Valuation**: The PE (TTM) of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 was 14.40 with a 0.09环比 change. The PE (TTM) of the S&P 500 was 27.26 with a 0.00环比 change [5]. - **Risk Premium**: The risk premium of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 (1/PE - 10 - year interest rate) was 3.70 with a 0.00环比 change. The risk premium of the S&P 500 was - 0.37 with a 0.00环比 change [5]. - **Fund Flow**: The latest value of A - share fund flow was - 1098.75, and the 5 - day average was - 803.28. The latest value of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fund flow was 70.26, and the 5 - day average was - 110.92 [5]. - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 19311.38 with a - 1417.21环比 change. The latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 was 5605.67 with a - 467.59环比 change [5]. - **Main Contract Premium or Discount**: The basis of IF was - 28.42 with a - 0.62% amplitude. The basis of IH was - 0.20 with a - 0.01% amplitude [5]. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - The closing prices of T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 were 108.165, 105.705, 107.870, and 105.600 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes of - 0.04%, - 0.04%, - 0.05%, and - 0.03% [6]. - The domestic money market's R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M were 1.3531%, 1.4751%, and 1.5810% respectively, with daily changes of - 12.00BP, 1.00BP, and 0.00BP [6].

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) has fallen below the 0.6500 mark against the US dollar, currently at 0.6489, reflecting a decline of 0.30% [1] - Australia's unemployment rate rose to 4.5% in September, igniting expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) [1] - Employment data showed an increase of 14,900 jobs in September, which was below the market expectation of 20,000, while the previous month's job loss was revised to a decrease of 11,800 from 54,000 [1] Group 2 - RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter's cautious remarks provided some support for the AUD, noting that recent data was slightly better than expected and that third-quarter inflation might exceed forecasts [1] - The RBA's September monetary policy meeting minutes indicated that board members believe the current policy is still somewhat restrictive, but the extent is difficult to determine [1] - Economic risks remain, with weak employment and wage growth contributing to subdued consumer spending [1] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that the AUD/USD remains in a downward channel, with bearish sentiment persisting [2] - The potential downside target for the AUD/USD is around 0.6440, and a break below this support could lead to testing the four-month low of 0.6414 and the five-month low of 0.6372 [2] - On the upside, initial resistance is at the 9-day exponential moving average of 0.6527, followed by the 50-day moving average at 0.6551, with a breakthrough potentially improving short- and medium-term price momentum [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar is attributed to both internal and external factors, indicating a potential long-term upward trend in the yuan's value [4][8][11]. Exchange Rate Performance - As of October 16, the yuan's central parity against the US dollar was set at 7.0968, an increase of 27 basis points from the previous day [1]. - The yuan has appreciated over 900 points against the dollar this year, with an onshore appreciation of 2.40% and an offshore appreciation exceeding 2.8% [3]. Economic Indicators - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) in China rose by 1.0% year-on-year, marking the first increase in 19 months, reflecting the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies [3]. - The strong performance of the A-share market has attracted international capital back to Chinese assets, increasing demand for the yuan [4][8]. External Influences - The risk of economic recession in the US and the Federal Reserve's signals of potential interest rate cuts have pressured the US dollar, indirectly boosting the yuan's value [4][8]. - The Federal Reserve's recent data suggests little change in the US employment and inflation outlook, leading to a near 100% probability of a rate cut in October [3]. Long-term Outlook - Analysts suggest that the yuan may have entered a long-term appreciation cycle, driven by the Federal Reserve's easing monetary policy and a favorable domestic economic environment [9][10][11]. - The relative economic strength of China compared to the US is expected to support the yuan's value in the long run, despite potential fluctuations [11].

Core Insights - The overall international balance of payments in China has remained stable, with a reasonable current account surplus and active cross-border investment and financing [1][2][3] Group 1: International Balance of Payments - The maintenance of a balanced international payment is crucial for macroeconomic stability, especially in the context of complex external environments [2] - Since the beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan, China's international balance of payments has remained fundamentally balanced, with foreign financial assets and liabilities steadily increasing [2][4] - As of now, China's foreign exchange reserves are maintained at over $3.2 trillion [2] Group 2: Cross-Border Trade and Investment - Cross-border trade has shown strong resilience, with the current account surplus remaining within a reasonable range [3] - From 2021 to 2024, the average annual scale of goods trade imports and exports is close to $6 trillion, representing a nearly 43% increase compared to the previous five years [3] - Foreign direct investment in China has netted over $740 billion from 2021 to mid-2025, while domestic entities' outbound investments have also increased [4] Group 3: Foreign Exchange Market Development - The resilience of the foreign exchange market has improved, enhancing the ability to withstand external shocks [5] - The proportion of enterprises using foreign exchange hedging has increased from 17% in 2020 to around 30% [5] - The trading volume of China's foreign exchange market reached $41 trillion in 2024, a 37.4% increase from 2020 [6][7] Group 4: Statistical Improvements - The transparency of international balance of payments statistics has been steadily improved, with expanded data dimensions and historical data availability [8][9] - A new statistical framework has been established to enhance the quality and comprehensiveness of data collection and reporting [9][10] - China has actively participated in the formulation of global statistical rules, contributing to international financial governance [10]