周二，美国股债汇齐涨，再度上演"TACO交易"。 在因阵亡将士纪念日休市一天后，美股在本周首个交易日集体收涨，道指涨1.78%，纳指涨2.47%，标 普500指数涨2.05%，大型科技股普涨。 美债反弹，收益率普跌，长端美债收益率至少跌超8个基点。30年期德债收益率跌超6个基点。 从威胁到妥协：50%关税的48小时反转 这轮市场过山车始于上周五特朗普突然宣布的炸弹消息。在贸易谈判毫无进展的挫败感驱使下，特朗普 宣布将从6月1日起对欧盟商品征收50%关税。 市场反应堪称灾难性：道琼斯工业平均指数暴跌256点，跌幅0.6%；标普500指数重挫2.6%；纳斯达克 综合指数下跌1%。这一"天外飞来"的公告让投资者在长周末假期中忐忑不安。 伦敦Saxo Markets的英国投资策略师Neil Wilson在周五特朗普宣布对欧盟征收50%关税的惊人决定后 写道： "希望和预期仍然是，我们将看到'TACO交易'上演。"事实证明，Wilson的预测准确无误。 剧情在周日晚间出现戏剧性反转。 特朗普在社交媒体上发布消息称，应欧盟主席Ursula von der Leyen 的请求，同意将50%关税的实施推迟至7月9日。 "这是 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The interbank foreign exchange market shows a mixed performance in the RMB exchange rates against various currencies, indicating fluctuations in the currency's value. Exchange Rate Changes - USD/RMB is reported at 7.1894, an increase (RMB depreciation) of 18 points [1] - EUR/RMB is reported at 8.1558, a decrease of 291 points [1] - HKD/RMB is reported at 0.9172, a decrease of 0.3 points [1] - GBP/RMB is reported at 9.7248, a decrease of 224 points [1] - AUD/RMB is reported at 4.6402, a decrease of 186 points [1] - CAD/RMB is reported at 5.2107, a decrease of 210 points [1] - 100 JPY/RMB is reported at 4.9915, a decrease of 434 points [1] - RMB/RUB is reported at 11.1540, an increase of 294 points [1] - NZD/RMB is reported at 4.2816, a decrease of 269 points [1] - RMB/MYR is reported at 0.58881, an increase of 21.1 points [1] - CHF/RMB is reported at 8.7007, a decrease of 570 points [1] - SGD/RMB is reported at 5.5844, a decrease of 130 points [1]

Group 1 - The New Taiwan Dollar (NTD) has strengthened against the US Dollar, breaking the psychological barrier of 30 NTD per USD, with less than 1% remaining to reach a nearly 30-year high [1][3] - The appreciation of the NTD is attributed to multiple factors including a weakening US Dollar index, trade policy negotiations, and a shift in Taiwan's monetary policy [1][3] - Year-to-date, the NTD has appreciated by 9.8%, leading among emerging market currencies in Asia, with current trading around 29.84 NTD per USD [3] Group 2 - Taiwan's central bank has indicated a policy shift, stating it will not adhere to a specific exchange rate level, allowing for a strategic appreciation of the NTD [4] - Analysts suggest that if the US Dollar index falls below the technical support level of 104, the NTD could challenge the 29.5 NTD per USD range, although caution is advised regarding potential counter-cyclical adjustments by Taiwan's monetary authorities [4] - Market participants are closely monitoring the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and Taiwan's semiconductor export data, as these factors may influence future exchange rate movements [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article provides the interbank foreign exchange market's RMB exchange rate midpoint for May 26, 2025, highlighting fluctuations against various currencies, indicating a general trend of RMB appreciation against the US dollar and depreciation against the Malaysian ringgit [1] Currency Exchange Rates Summary - USD/RMB is reported at 7.1833, down 86 points, indicating RMB appreciation [1] - EUR/RMB is reported at 8.1676, up 407 points, indicating EUR depreciation against RMB [1] - HKD/RMB is reported at 0.91689, down 17.1 points, indicating RMB appreciation [1] - GBP/RMB is reported at 9.7139, up 478 points, indicating GBP depreciation against RMB [1] - AUD/RMB is reported at 4.6661, up 469 points, indicating AUD depreciation against RMB [1] - CAD/RMB is reported at 5.2262, up 279 points, indicating CAD depreciation against RMB [1] - 100 JPY/RMB is reported at 5.0252, up 185 points, indicating JPY depreciation against RMB [1] - RMB/RUB is reported at 11.0730, up 94 points, indicating RUB depreciation against RMB [1] - NZD/RMB is reported at 4.2997, up 476 points, indicating NZD depreciation against RMB [1] - RMB/MYR is reported at 0.5891, down 42.3 points, indicating RMB depreciation [1] - CHF/RMB is reported at 8.7286, up 351 points, indicating CHF depreciation against RMB [1] - SGD/RMB is reported at 5.5896, up 167 points, indicating SGD depreciation against RMB [1]

Group 1 - Spot gold has increased by $8, currently priced at $3,330 per ounce [1] - The US Dollar Index (DXY) has decreased by 25 points, now at 99.18 [1] - The USD/JPY exchange rate has dropped by 50 points, falling below 143, with a daily decline of 0.71% [1]

国家外汇管理局：4月中国外汇市场总计成交29.04万亿元人民币 金十数据5月23日讯，国家外汇管理局统计数据显示，2025年4月，中国外汇市场（不含外币对市场，下 同）总计成交29.04万亿元人民币（等值4.03万亿美元）。其中，银行对客户市场成交4.18万亿元人民币 （等值0.58万亿美元），银行间市场成交24.86万亿元人民币（等值3.45万亿美元）；即期市场累计成交 9.55万亿元人民币（等值1.33万亿美元），衍生品市场累计成交19.49万亿元人民币（等值2.71万亿美 元）。 （国家外汇管理局） 相关链接 ...

美元，再遭抛售！ 最近几天，美元持续下挫。5月21日，衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数再次跌破100，这也是美元连续第三 天下跌。5月22日盘中，美元指数继续弱势震荡，盘中最低触及99.43。其中，美元兑日元一度下跌0.6%至 142.81，创两周新低。 自今年1月高点以来，美元指数的累计跌幅已接近10%。彭博社指出，一项指标表明，货币期权交易员对美元 今后一年间走势的看空情绪达到历史顶峰。 此外，22日晚间消息，在特朗普税收法案勉强通过众议院后，美国30年期国债收益率短线拉升，日内上升逾2 个基点，报5.123%，为2023年10月以来的最高日内水平，距离2007年以来的最高点越来越近。这表明投资者 对特朗普的减税计划表示反对，对财政赤字的担忧也开始对股市产生越来越大的压力。 值得关注的是，在美元被抛售的同时，比特币却受到资金追捧。22日，比特币大涨超4%并突破11万美元大 关，创出历史新高。有分析指出，比特币升至历史新高，原因之一是投资者寻求美国资产的替代品。此外，美 国监管利好，也提振了加密货币市场。 22日，美股加密货币概念股盘前集体上涨，CleanSpark涨超5.6%， MARA Holdings ...

研究中心宏观团队 2025/05/22 | 最新变化 | -0.74% | -0.12% | -0.30% | -0.32% | -0.01% | -0.26% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 一周变化 | -0.22% | 0.25% | -0.08% | -0.28% | 0.07% | 0.02% | | 一月变化 | -0.15% | 0.03% | 0.51% | 2.29% | 1.89% | 2.72% | | 一年变化 | 4.58% | 5.47% | 5.92% | 8.86% | 8.16% | 11.89% | | 大类资产早报 | | --- | | | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债收益率 | | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 2025/05/21 | 4. ...

| | 欧元/美元 EURUSD | 1.133 | +0.03% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 英镑/美元 GBPUSD | 1.343 | +0.04% | | =75 | 美元/日元 USDJPY | 143.346 | -0.22% | | | 澳元/美元 AUDUSD | 0.643 | -0.06% | | | 美元/瑞郎 USDCHF | 0.825 | -0.06% | | | 纽元/美元 NZDUSD | 0.593 | -0.12% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | M | 英镑/日元 GBPJPY | 192.438 | -0.17% | | | | 虚拟货币 VIRTUAL CURRENCY | | | 13 | 比特币 11 BTC | 109791.110 +147.110 | +0.13% | | f | 菜特币 LTC | 97.830 +0.740 | +0.76% | | | 以太坊 ETH | 2575.990 +25.090 | +0.98% | | | 瑞波币 XRP | 2.397 +0.001 | +0. ...

Report Summary Core Views - In April, both sides of foreign exchange settlement and sales volume increased, with the scale of settlement and sales rising simultaneously, and the overall deficit slightly expanding. The significant growth of forward net settlement reflects the improvement of enterprises' settlement expectations and more proactive hedging behavior [3]. - The US dollar index fluctuated weakly, and the Federal Reserve maintained a wait - and - see stance. After the withdrawal of the counter - cyclical factor, the fluctuation range of the RMB exchange rate increased [3]. Data Core Highlights Foreign Exchange Market Supply - Demand Structure - In April 2025, the bank foreign exchange settlement and sales deficit was $4.257 billion, slightly expanding from the previous value of - $1.967 billion. The scale of both settlement and sales increased, indicating higher activity in enterprises' foreign exchange transactions. The surplus of bank customer - related foreign exchange settlement and sales expanded from $96 million to $589.3 million, while the deficit of banks' own foreign exchange settlement and sales expanded from - $2.063 billion to - $10.15 billion [4]. - The spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB rose 0.34% month - on - month, and the market trading activity declined slightly, with the average spot inquiry trading volume falling to $42.234 billion [4]. Forward Transaction Structure - In April, the forward market continued to recover. The forward settlement signing amount increased by $4.358 billion month - on - month, and the forward sales signing amount decreased by $2.193 billion, driving the cumulative outstanding forward net settlement amount to expand from $903 million to $5.231 billion. The forward purchase performance amount increased by $7.519 billion, much higher than the increase in settlement performance [5]. - The forward settlement hedging ratio rose to 8.59%, the highest point this year, while the forward purchase hedging ratio dropped to 4.3% [5]. Securities Investment - In April, the foreign - related receipts and payments under securities investment changed from a surplus of $7.37 billion to a deficit of $12.493 billion. The trading volumes of both the Shanghai - Hong Kong Stock Connect and the Shenzhen - Hong Kong Stock Connect decreased, and the two - way difference narrowed. However, the bond custody volume of overseas investors in RMB bonds rose to 29,781.5 billion yuan [6]. Goods Trade - In April, the goods trade surplus narrowed, dragging down the foreign exchange settlement and sales surplus. The global manufacturing PMI fell from 52 in March to 50.8 in April, and China's manufacturing PMI dropped to 49, returning to the contraction range. The US manufacturing PMI remained at 51.2, while Japan and the Eurozone were still in the contraction range [6]. Exchange Rate Views - The US inflation shows an initial slowdown trend, but the Fed maintains a cautious policy stance. The US core CPI in April fell to 2.8% year - on - year, and the PPI also declined month - on - month. However, the Fed did not adjust its policy, and the US dollar index fell to around 100 [8]. - The easing of tariffs boosted expectations, and the exchange rate fluctuated more after the withdrawal of the counter - cyclical factor. In May, the RMB exchange rate fluctuated around 7.20. After the withdrawal of the counter - cyclical factor, the exchange rate was more driven by market supply and demand, and the short - term fluctuation range increased. The 1 - year USDCNY swap point dropped to - 2160, and the RMB exchange rate may show a two - way shock pattern in the short term [8].