Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Crude Oil**: Near - term oil prices are subject to many disturbances. Geopolitical tensions push up prices, but supply - side pressure remains significant. OPEC+ may increase production. Short - term Brent crude is expected to trade in the range of $67.8 - 70 per barrel [1][2]. - **Asphalt**: Cost support is strong, but demand is weak in the short term due to the approaching holiday and rainy weather. Supply remains high. Prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level, and crack spreads are expected to be bearish in the medium term [3][4][5]. - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil prices are suppressed by high inventories, and low - sulfur fuel oil supply is increasing while demand lacks a clear driver [5][6][7]. - **PX & PTA**: PX is in a tight balance with a reduced de - stocking rate. PTA's supply - demand contradiction is alleviated, and inventory accumulation pressure is not large. Prices are mainly affected by the macro - environment and cost [7][9][10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weaker than last year. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation [11][12]. - **Short Fiber**: Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate strongly due to rising raw material prices, but processing fees are expected to remain low [13][15]. - **PR (Bottle Chip)**: Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate strongly due to rising raw material prices. Processing fees are expected to fluctuate at a low level as demand transitions from peak to off - peak [15][16]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: In the short term, prices may fluctuate strongly due to geopolitical risks and macro - sentiment. In the long term, there is an expectation of inventory accumulation, and prices are expected to decline [18][19][20]. - **Propylene**: Supply is increasing, and the market is overall loose. Downstream product profits are poor. It is recommended to short on rebounds [20][21][22]. - **Plastic PP**: Supply is expected to face new capacity releases, and demand in October is expected to be weak. It is recommended to wait and see during the holiday and short on rebounds in the medium term [22][23][24]. - **Caustic Soda**: It is currently in a state of weak reality and strong expectation. Short - term trading focuses on weak reality, but the medium - term supply - demand outlook is positive [24][25][26]. - **PVC**: Supply is increasing, demand is weak, and exports are expected to decline. It is recommended to hold short positions lightly during the holiday [26][27][28]. - **Soda Ash**: Before the holiday, prices are expected to remain stable. After the holiday, the market may be weak. It is recommended to hold light or no positions during the holiday [30][31][32]. - **Glass**: Before the holiday, prices are expected to fluctuate. Demand is relatively weak, and the sustainability of the upward trend needs attention [33][34][35]. - **Log**: Supply is abundant, and demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [35][36][38]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Supply is expected to increase slightly, demand is weak, and cost support is limited. It is recommended to short the 01 contract [39][40]. - **Pulp**: Short - term supply and demand are both weak, but the market is stabilizing. It is recommended to buy on dips [40][41][42]. - **Natural Rubber & No. 20 Rubber**: It is recommended to short the RU 01 contract and wait and see for the NR 11 contract [43][44][45]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The BR 11 contract should be observed after hitting the stop - loss. Hold the spread position of BR2511 - RU2501 [47][48]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2511 rose $0.74 to $65.72 per barrel (+1.14%); Brent2511 rose $0.71 to $70.13 per barrel (+1.02%); SC2511 rose to 495 yuan per barrel at night [1]. - **Related News**: Iraq's northern oil pipeline resumes operation; OPEC+ may increase production by at least 137,000 barrels per day; the US asks India to reduce Russian oil purchases [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: expect wide - range fluctuations, with the intraday range of the Brent main contract at $67.8 - 70 per barrel; arbitrage: gasoline and diesel cracks are weak; options: wait and see [2][3]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2511 closed at 3463 points at night (+0.35%); BU2512 closed at 3425 points at night (+0.50%). Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [3]. - **Related News**: Demand in different regions is different, and crude oil price increases support asphalt prices, but some refineries are still accumulating inventory [3][4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: expect range - bound fluctuations; arbitrage: the asphalt - crude oil spread is expected to weaken; options: sell out - of - the - money call options on BU2512 [4][5]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU01 closed at 2972 (+1.99%); LU11 closed at 3525 (+1.59%). Singapore paper - cargo spreads changed [5]. - **Related News**: Nigerian refinery lays off workers; Russian refinery is attacked [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: the FU main contract is expected to be strongly volatile, and the LU near - month contract will fluctuate with crude oil; arbitrage: consider widening the LU01 - FU01 spread; options: sell out - of - the - money call options on FU01 [6][7]. PX & PTA - **Market Review**: PX2511 closed at 6690 at night (+0.51%); TA601 closed at 4670 at night (+0.52%). PX spot prices fell, and PTA spot trading was weak [7]. - **Related News**: PX and PTA operating rates increased, and polyester operating rates decreased [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: short - term prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, and medium - to - long - term, it is recommended to short on rallies; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [10][11]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2601 closed at 4238 at night (+0.59%). Spot and futures basis are given [11]. - **Related News**: The overall operating rate of ethylene glycol decreased, and downstream sales were poor [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: expect weak fluctuations; arbitrage: wait and see; options: sell call options [12][13]. Short Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2511 closed at 6350 at night (+0.38%). Spot prices in different regions are stable [13]. - **Related News**: Downstream sales were poor [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: short - term prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [15]. PR (Bottle Chip) - **Market Review**: PR2511 closed at 5820 at night (+0.31%). Spot trading was light [15]. - **Related News**: The bottle - chip operating rate decreased, and polyester operating rates decreased slightly [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: short - term prices are expected to fluctuate strongly; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [16][18]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Review**: BZ2503 closed at 5921 at night (+0.30%); EB2511 closed at 6969 at night (+0.29%). Spot prices in different regions are given [18]. - **Related News**: The operating rates of pure benzene and styrene and their downstream industries changed [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: short - term prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, and medium - to - long - term, it is recommended to short on rallies; arbitrage: long pure benzene and short styrene; options: wait and see [19][20]. Propylene - **Market Review**: PL2601 closed at 6396 at night (+0.49%). Spot prices in different regions are given [20][21]. - **Related News**: The propylene operating rate increased [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: short on rebounds; arbitrage: wait and see; options: sell put options [22]. Plastic PP - **Market Review**: Spot prices of LLDPE and PP in different regions showed different trends [22][23]. - **Related News**: PE and PP maintenance ratios changed [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: wait and see during the holiday, and short on rebounds in the medium term; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [23][24]. Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: Spot prices of caustic soda in different regions changed [24]. - **Related News**: The price of liquid chlorine decreased [25]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: short - term focus on weak reality, medium - term focus on long opportunities; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [25][26]. PVC - **Market Review**: PVC spot prices fluctuated slightly, and trading was light [27]. - **Related News**: The price of calcium carbide decreased [27]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: hold short positions lightly during the holiday; arbitrage: conduct 1 - 5 and 3 - 5 month - spread reverse arbitrage; options: wait and see [27][28][30]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The futures price of soda ash changed, and spot prices in different regions are given [30]. - **Related News**: Soda ash production reached a historical high, and inventory decreased [31]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: prices are expected to be stable before the holiday and weak after the holiday. Hold light or no positions during the holiday; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [31][32][33]. Glass - **Market Review**: The futures price of glass changed, and spot prices in different regions are given [33]. - **Related News**: Glass production increased, inventory decreased, and profits improved slightly [34]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: prices are expected to fluctuate before the holiday. Pay attention to demand and the sustainability of the upward trend; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [34][35]. Log - **Market Review**: Spot prices of logs in different regions are stable, and the 11 - month contract fluctuated slightly [35]. - **Related News**: The number of incoming log ships increased, and inventory decreased [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: short the LG2511 contract on rallies; arbitrage: wait and see; options: sell LG2511 - C - 820 [38][39]. Offset Printing Paper - **Market Review**: Spot prices of offset printing paper are stable, and raw material prices changed slightly [39]. - **Related News**: Production and inventory of offset printing paper increased [40]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: short the 01 contract; arbitrage: wait and see; options: sell OP2601 - C - 4500 [40]. Pulp - **Market Review**: The futures price of pulp decreased, and spot prices of different pulp types changed [40][41]. - **Related News**: A new pulp project was put into operation [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: buy on dips; arbitrage: wait and see and pay attention to the 11 - 1 reverse spread; options: wait and see [42][43]. Natural Rubber & No. 20 Rubber - **Market Review**: Futures prices of natural rubber and No. 20 rubber decreased, and spot prices in different regions are given [43][44]. - **Related News**: The US - EU trade agreement imposes tariffs on EU auto products [45]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: short the RU 01 contract and wait and see for the NR 11 contract; arbitrage: conduct the spread trade of BR2511 - RU2601; options: wait and see [45][46]. Butadiene Rubber - **Market Review**: The futures price of butadiene rubber decreased, and spot prices in different regions are given [47]. - **Related News**: The US - EU trade agreement imposes tariffs on EU auto products [48]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: observe after hitting the stop - loss; arbitrage: hold the spread position of BR2511 - RU2501; options: wait and see [48][49].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that methanol futures have rebounded from low levels, but high port inventories continue to suppress prices in the short term [1] - Domestic methanol prices have slightly decreased due to weak port market conditions, while coal prices have rebounded, narrowing the profit margin for coal-based methanol to around 400 yuan/ton, although this remains historically high [1] - The total maintenance scale for methanol is approximately 9.5 million tons per year, with non-integrated facility maintenance amounting to about 7 million tons per year after excluding synchronized maintenance capacities [1] Group 2 - In Iran, the Kimiya methanol facility is operating at reduced capacity due to technical issues, while other facilities are functioning normally, resulting in a daily production of 35,000 tons, which is still sufficient to meet export demands to China [1] - Speculation about potential early gas supply restrictions in Iran has arisen due to maintenance issues at the Kimiya facility, which could marginally reduce methanol imports to China [1] - International methanol plant operating rates have begun to decline, but external market inventories remain high, and terminal demand continues to be weak [2] Group 3 - The production profits for downstream products such as formaldehyde and dimethyl ether have recovered above the breakeven line, indicating an overall industry nearing breakeven [2] - The upcoming winter season is expected to bring additional fuel demand for methanol, although this demand will take time to materialize [2] - The MTO facilities in Central Plains and Zhejiang have restarted, but the overall performance of downstream products remains weak, limiting operational enthusiasm among MTO enterprises [3] Group 4 - The port inventory accumulation continues to negatively impact methanol prices, while the overall economic conditions remain weak, affecting MTO enterprises' operational decisions [3] - Despite the opening of arbitrage opportunities from ports to inland areas, the reality of weak performance persists due to high port inventories [3] - The market for methanol is currently in a state of contention between weak realities and strong expectations, suggesting a cautious approach to trading strategies [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. [5] - Inter - period: None [5] - Inter - variety: None [5] 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the domestic ethylene glycol (EG) market was weak, with a slight rebound in the middle of the week due to marginal improvement in demand. However, overall buying interest was weak, and trading volume decreased approaching the holiday. The spot basis declined. It is expected that the port inventory of EG will increase significantly after the National Day holiday as foreign ships are expected to arrive in large numbers, leading to poor inventory - holding intentions among traders before the holiday. [2] - On the supply side, the overall operating load of EG in mainland China is at a high level. Although the total load has decreased with the implementation of maintenance of syngas - based plants this week, overseas supply losses are still significant. [2][4] - On the demand side, the load of weaving and texturing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has increased, and the sales of filament have improved significantly due to pre - holiday restocking. However, the increase in polyester load is limited, and the sustainability of the demand recovery needs to be observed. [3] - The overall near - end EG balance sheet has no major contradictions, and the port inventory is expected to remain at a low level. But there is significant pressure to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter, and the port inventory is expected to increase significantly after the holiday. [4] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Price and Spread - This week, the domestic EG market was weak. There was a marginal improvement in demand in the middle of the week, leading to a slight rebound, but overall buying interest was weak. Trading volume decreased approaching the holiday, and the spot basis declined. At the beginning of the week, the EG futures market was weak. Some traders with contract shortages participated in restocking. However, due to the expected large number of foreign ship arrivals during the National Day holiday, the intention of traders to hold inventory before the holiday was poor, and the spot basis of EG quickly declined. The low - level transaction of the EG spot basis was at a premium of 56 - 60 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. [2] 3.2 Supply - The overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China is 73.08% (a 1.85% decrease from last week), among which the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by the oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation method (syngas) is 74.36% (a 5.02% decrease from last week). With the implementation of maintenance of syngas - based plants this week, the total load of EG decreased, but the overall domestic total load is still at a high level. Overseas, there are still many supply losses, and more than two sets of plants in Saudi Arabia are still in a shutdown or low - load operation state. [2][4] 3.3 Demand - The load of weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 70.0% (a 4.0% increase from last week), the load of texturing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 81.0% (a 3.0% increase from last week), the polyester operating rate is 90.30% (a 1.10% decrease from last week), and the direct - spun filament load is 93.50% (a 0.40% decrease from last week). The inventory days of POY decreased by 7.9 days to 13.8 days, the inventory days of FDY decreased by 7.0 days to 15.7 days, and the inventory days of DTY decreased by 3.7 days to 25.8 days. The operating rate of staple fiber factories is 95.4% (unchanged), and the inventory days of staple fiber factory equity decreased by 1.8 days to 9.3 days; the operating rate of bottle - chip factories is 67.8% (a 4.2% decrease from last week). This week, the load of weaving and texturing increased, orders improved marginally, and combined with pre - National Day restocking demand, the sales of filament increased significantly, and the product inventory of polyester factories decreased substantially. The polyester load decreased slightly due to the impact of a typhoon in South China and has now restarted. However, the inventory of grey cloth is still high, and the pressure remains. It is necessary to focus on the duration of the subsequent demand improvement. In terms of polyester load, it is expected that the load of filament and staple fiber will continue to stabilize and slightly increase in September, and the load increase of bottle - chips may be limited due to the rotation of maintenance and restart. [3] 3.4 Inventory - According to the data released by CCF every Monday, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China is 46.7 tons (a 0.2 - ton increase from last week); according to the data released by Longzhong every Thursday, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China is 40.0 tons (a 1.7 - ton increase from last week). The total planned arrivals at the main ports of East China this week are 9.3 tons, and the arrival volume is moderate. Longzhong inventory has slightly increased, and the main port inventory is at a low level. [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The EG futures price rebounded, and the spot basis weakened significantly. The demand recovery is slow, and the polyester load is expected to remain stable with limited upside potential. In September, the EG balance sheet has little imbalance, and the main port inventory is expected to remain low. However, due to the early output of Yulong, the EG inventory accumulation time is advanced, and the inventory accumulation pressure in the fourth quarter is relatively large [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 4,246 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton or 0.28% from the previous trading day. The spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,311 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton or 0.14% from the previous trading day. The spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 63 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 72 US dollars/ton, up 8 US dollars/ton from the previous day. The production profit of coal - based syngas EG was - 287 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton from the previous day. The domestic ethylene glycol load remained stable at a high level [1][2] International Price Difference - No specific data on international price differences were provided in the text Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - The current demand recovery is slow, with insufficient order connection. The polyester load is expected to remain stable, but the upside may be limited. Attention should be paid to the time of concentrated order placement in the later stage [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data released on Mondays, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 46.7 tons, up 0.2 tons from the previous week. According to Longzhong data released on Thursdays, the inventory was 40.0 tons, up 1.7 tons from the previous week. The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 8.3 tons, and the port inventory remained stable with a slight increase. The planned arrival at the main ports in East China this week is 7.3 tons, and the planned arrival at the secondary ports is 2.3 tons [1]

Report Summary 1. Market Overview - As of the close on September 24, most domestic futures main contracts rose. Glass rose nearly 5%, fuel oil rose over 3%, and container shipping to Europe, polysilicon, and soda ash rose over 2%. In terms of declines, rapeseed meal fell nearly 3%, rapeseed oil fell over 1%, and lithium carbonate and soybean meal fell nearly 1%. Stock index futures of CSI 300 (IF), SSE 50 (IH), CSI 500 (IC), and CSI 1000 (IM) rose 1.69%, 0.94%, 3.90%, and 3.22% respectively. Treasury bond futures of 2-year (TS), 5-year (TF), 10-year (T), and 30-year (TL) fell 0.03%, 0.08%, 0.10%, and 0.41% respectively [5] - As of 15:31 on September 24, in terms of capital inflow of domestic futures main contracts, Shanghai Gold 2512 inflowed 1.12 billion yuan, CSI 500 2512 inflowed 616 million yuan, and Shanghai Silver 2512 inflowed 424 million yuan. In terms of capital outflow, CSI 1000 2512 outflowed 3.235 billion yuan, CSI 300 2512 outflowed 2.086 billion yuan, and rapeseed oil 2601 outflowed 434 million yuan [7] 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Shanghai copper opened high and moved higher, showing a strong oscillation. The supply of copper concentrate and refined copper is tight. The TC/RC fees are weakly stable, and smelters' profitability is under pressure. The supply of scrap copper will decrease significantly in September, and the import of refined copper has declined. The demand is driven by pre - holiday restocking, but overseas macro factors still impact copper prices, and copper prices fluctuate narrowly [9] - **Crude Oil**: The peak travel season for crude oil is over. The overall oil inventory in the US has increased, and the refinery operating rate has declined. OPEC+ will implement a production adjustment in October 2025, which will increase the pressure on crude oil in the fourth quarter. The price of Saudi Aramco's flagship product has been cut. The geopolitical situation and demand concerns co - exist, and it is recommended to short on rallies [10][11] - **Asphalt**: The asphalt开工率 has slightly declined but is still at a relatively low level in recent years. The expected production in September has increased. The downstream operating rate has risen, but is restricted by funds and weather. The inventory is at a low level, and the cost support has weakened. It is expected that the asphalt futures price will oscillate downward [12] - **PP**: The downstream operating rate of PP has rebounded, and the enterprise operating rate has increased. The cost has rebounded due to the oil price. New production capacity has been put into operation, and the demand in the peak season is less than expected. It is expected that PP will oscillate [14] - **Plastic**: The plastic开工率 has declined, and the downstream operating rate has increased. The cost has rebounded. New production capacity is being put into operation, and the demand in the peak season is less than expected. It is expected that plastic will oscillate [15][16] - **PVC**: The PVC开工率 has decreased, and the downstream operating rate has increased. The export expectation has weakened, and the inventory pressure is large. The real - estate market is still in adjustment. The cost support is strengthening, and it is expected that PVC will be under pressure and decline [17] - **Urea**: Urea opened high and moved low, with a slightly strong oscillation. The spot sentiment has improved slightly, but the price is still weak. The daily production has recovered, and the demand is mainly for pre - holiday restocking. The inventory is high, and the supply - demand is loose. The upward space of the futures price is limited [18][19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report doesn't provide an overall investment rating for the industry. However, the mid - term outlook for most energy and chemical products is "shock - weakening", with a few in "shock" status [3][6][8][11][12]. 2. Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical concerns have reignited, and the supply pressure on crude oil continues. The geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine has escalated, and the market is worried about Russia's crude oil supply. Meanwhile, OPEC+ is accelerating production increases, and the later period will face the dual pressures of the peak and decline of refinery operations and OPEC+ production increases [1][6]. - Most chemical trade data shows that imports of most varieties have declined year - on - year, while imports of methanol, PX, and pure benzene have increased. Exports of PVC, PE, PP, and styrene have performed well. The chemical chain valuation has been slightly compressed recently, and the rebound of crude oil may trigger the replenishment demand of the industrial chain, leading to the stabilization of chemical product prices [2]. - The overall energy and chemical industry will continue the pattern of shock and consolidation [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes and Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical concerns have reignited, and supply pressure continues. - **Main Logic**: Overnight oil prices rebounded. Geopolitical concerns dominated by the Russia - Ukraine situation are still fermenting, supporting the bottom of the range. API data shows that US crude oil and gasoline inventories decreased last week. Under the background of OPEC+ accelerating production increases, crude oil will face the dual pressures of the peak and decline of refinery operations and OPEC+ production increases in the later period. - **Outlook**: Oil prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to short - term geopolitical disturbances [6]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: The asphalt - fuel oil price difference has declined rapidly. - **Main Logic**: Saudi Arabia promotes OPEC+ to continue increasing production, the US may impose tariffs on Russia, and Russia may stop exporting diesel, leading to a sharp rise in oil prices but limited increase in asphalt futures prices and compressed profits. The asphalt - fuel oil price difference has decreased rapidly, and the planned asphalt production in October has increased by 19% year - on - year. - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt is over - estimated, and the asphalt monthly spread is expected to decline with the increase of warehouse receipts [8]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical disturbances drive the sharp rise of fuel oil futures prices. - **Main Logic**: Saudi Arabia promotes OPEC+ to continue increasing production, the US may impose tariffs on Russia, and Russia may stop exporting diesel, leading to a sharp rise in fuel oil futures prices. However, the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to deteriorate due to factors such as the increase in import tariffs, weak gasoline in the US, and low refinery operating rates. - **Outlook**: Geopolitical escalation will have a short - term impact on prices, and attention should be paid to changes in the Russia - Ukraine situation [9]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates and rises following crude oil. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the rise of crude oil, but the pressure level of 3500 is effective in the short term. It faces negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The domestic refined oil supply pressure has increased, and it is expected to maintain a low - valuation operation. - **Outlook**: Affected by green fuel substitution and limited high - sulfur substitution demand space, but with a low current valuation, it fluctuates following crude oil [11]. 3.1.5 Methanol - **Viewpoint**: The increase in external procurement in the inland area boosts the methanol futures price to fluctuate. - **Main Logic**: The methanol futures price fluctuated on September 23. The increase in the external procurement demand of some olefin enterprises in Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi has supported the price. The inland inventory pressure is limited, but the port inventory pressure is still large in the near - term. Considering the high probability of overseas shutdown in the far - term, some funds still bet at low prices. - **Outlook**: Short - term shock [21]. 3.1.6 Urea - **Viewpoint**: The pattern of loose supply and demand is difficult to change, and the futures price continues to be under pressure along the cost line. - **Main Logic**: On September 23, the daily production and operating rate on the supply side remained high, the demand side lacked strong support, and the export expectation was weakening. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals of supply and demand remain loose. Before the festival, the demand is mainly for order collection, and the downstream transactions are moderately promoted. It is expected to fluctuate and wait for other positive factors [23]. 3.1.7 Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Viewpoint**: The downstream demand support is weak, and the supply - demand margin weakens. - **Main Logic**: The cost side has no obvious support, and the commodity atmosphere is not good. The overall supply remains high, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in the later period. - **Outlook**: The price fluctuates weakly, looking for support at the lower level [15][16]. 3.1.8 PX - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand margin weakens, the demand is lower than expected, and the processing fee is under pressure. - **Main Logic**: Oil prices fluctuate at a low level, and the atmosphere in the energy and chemical sector is not good. The supply remains high, the downstream demand is still weak, and the processing fee is still under pressure. - **Outlook**: Shock - weakening [12]. 3.1.9 PTA - **Viewpoint**: The basis continues to weaken, and the willingness to hold goods is low. - **Main Logic**: The cost side fluctuates weakly, and the support is insufficient. The supply maintenance increases, but it still cannot effectively suppress market liquidity. The basis is still weak, and the processing fee has not improved significantly. - **Outlook**: Shock - weakening [12]. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: The inventory is slightly reduced, and the processing fee is firm. - **Main Logic**: The prices of upstream polyester raw materials fluctuate and weaken, and the cost support is insufficient. The supply is stable, the downstream production and sales are tepid, and the processing fee is firm. - **Outlook**: The absolute value of short - fiber fluctuates with raw materials, and it fluctuates weakly in the short term [18][19]. 3.1.11 Bottle - Chip - **Viewpoint**: The processing fee runs stably, and attention should be paid to contract negotiations. - **Main Logic**: The cost of upstream polyester raw materials weakens, and the absolute price of bottle - chips fluctuates and declines. The processing fee is relatively firm, and attention should be paid to the speculative replenishment demand of downstream at low prices. - **Outlook**: Shock - weakening, and the absolute value fluctuates with raw materials [19]. 3.1.12 PP - **Viewpoint**: The maintenance rate increases, and PP should pay attention to the support strength at the previous low. - **Main Logic**: Oil prices fluctuate. The plastic futures price declines in the short term, and the downstream transactions still increase. Although the downstream start - up in the peak season is slow, there is still some support for demand. The fundamentals of PP are still under pressure, and the supply side still has certain pressure. - **Outlook**: Short - term shock - weakening [26][27]. 3.1.13 Propylene (PL) - **Viewpoint**: It fluctuates following PP, and PL fluctuates and declines in the short term. - **Main Logic**: Traders in the market are generally bearish on the future market. Affected by the psychology of "buying on rising, not on falling", downstream pre - festival inventory - building willingness is general, and the market trading is dull. - **Outlook**: PL fluctuates weakly in the short term [27]. 3.1.14 Plastic (LLDPE) - **Viewpoint**: The downstream transactions still increase, and plastic fluctuates and declines. - **Main Logic**: Oil prices fluctuate. The plastic futures price declines in the short term, and the downstream transactions still increase. Although the downstream start - up in the peak season is slow, there is still some support for demand. The fundamentals of plastic are still under pressure, and the supply side still has certain pressure. - **Outlook**: The fundamental support is limited, and it fluctuates in the short term [25]. 3.1.15 Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: The future market expectation is still pessimistic, and pure benzene returns to decline. - **Main Logic**: At the beginning of the week, the inventory in East China ports decreased, and downstream had certain replenishment demand. However, after the positive news of interest rate cuts was realized, and affected by the postponement of pure benzene maintenance and import transactions, the prices of pure benzene and styrene declined. Pure benzene is difficult to destock before the end of the year, and the inventory accumulation is the most obvious in October. - **Outlook**: If the styrene maintenance is implemented from September to October, the pattern of pure benzene will return to the situation of oversupply and inventory accumulation [13][14]. 3.1.16 Styrene - **Viewpoint**: The fundamentals lack positive factors, and styrene resumes decline. - **Main Logic**: At the beginning of the week, the news of Zhejiang Petrochemical's maintenance boosted the sentiment of styrene. After the positive news of interest rate cuts was realized, and affected by the postponement of pure benzene maintenance and import transactions, the styrene price declined. The current contradiction of styrene is the high inventory of upstream and downstream, which is difficult to destock. The cost side of pure benzene also drags down the styrene price. - **Outlook**: The profit has reached a low level, and one can try to widen the styrene profit. The idea of shorting on rebounds remains unchanged [14][15]. 3.1.17 PVC - **Viewpoint**: The market sentiment has declined, and PVC should be cautiously bearish. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the domestic anti - involution policy is to be implemented, and overseas has entered the interest rate - cut cycle, so the market sentiment is prone to fluctuations. At the micro level, the fundamentals of PVC are under pressure, but the dynamic cost has increased, and the market sentiment may recover. - **Outlook**: PVC fluctuates, with pressure from the medium - and long - term fundamentals and support from the increase in dynamic cost and the recovery of market sentiment [29]. 3.1.18 Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: The expectation is strong, but the reality is weak, and the market fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the domestic anti - involution policy is to be implemented, and overseas has entered the interest rate - cut cycle, so the market sentiment is prone to fluctuations. At the micro level, the fundamentals of caustic soda still have pressure, but the demand expectation is good. The support comes from the strong expectation of caustic soda inventory - building for the production of 4.8 million tons of alumina in Guangxi in Q1 2026. - **Outlook**: It fluctuates in the medium - and long - term. The spot price is weakly stable before the festival, and the market may rebound due to the strong inventory - building expectation for alumina production in Q4. If the inventory - building expectation is realized after the festival, the market may return to the weak reality [30]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - **Cross - Period Spread**: The report provides the cross - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc., including the latest values and change values [32]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the basis and warehouse receipts of varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., including the latest values and change values [33]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: The cross - variety spreads of different categories are presented, such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc., along with the latest values and change values [34]. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index all declined on September 23, 2025, with declines of 0.73%, 0.75%, and 0.76% respectively [276]. - **Energy Index**: On September 23, 2025, the energy index was 1179.87, with a daily decline of 1.64%, a decline of 4.31% in the past 5 days, a decline of 4.01% in the past month, and a decline of 3.91% since the beginning of the year [278].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For pure benzene, domestic attention is on the commissioning progress of Yulong Cracking Unit 2. The operation of domestic existing plants has slightly declined, and the rhythm of imports has slowed down. Downstream提货 and procurement for stocking before the festival have increased the de - stocking rate of port inventories. The downstream operation of pure benzene has rebounded from the bottom, but the overall operation is still low, and the sustainability of downstream procurement is questionable [3]. - For styrene, the downstream提货 volume has declined during the peak season, and the arrival of EB has been concentrated, leading to the re - accumulation of port inventories. The absolute level of port inventories is still high, and the EB basis has further weakened. The operation of EB has gradually recovered since late September. Among the downstream of EB, the operation of ABS and PS has slightly declined, while the operation of EPS before the National Day was acceptable, and the inventory pressure of ABS is relatively large. Overseas, the operation of EB in Europe and the United States is still low, but the price difference between EB in Europe and the United States and China has continued to weaken, and the paper - cargo locked import window for EB has been opened [3]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - Period Spread - The pure benzene main contract basis is - 30 yuan/ton (+36), and the spot - M2 spread is 0 yuan/ton (+20 yuan/ton). The EB main contract basis is 0 yuan/ton (- 42 yuan/ton) [1]. II. Production Profits and Internal - External Price Differences of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene CFR China processing fee is 132 US dollars/ton (- 3 US dollars/ton), and FOB Korea processing fee is 114 US dollars/ton (- 2 US dollars/ton). The US - Korea price difference of pure benzene is 37.5 US dollars/ton (- 3.0 US dollars/ton). The non - integrated production profit of styrene is - 562 yuan/ton (- 87 yuan/ton) and is expected to gradually compress [1]. III. Inventories and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene port inventory is 10.70 million tons (- 2.70 million tons), and the operating rate has a slight decline. Styrene East China port inventory is 186,500 tons (+27,500 tons), East China commercial inventory is 98,500 tons (+20,500 tons), and the operating rate is 73.4% (- 1.5%) [1]. IV. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene Downstream - EPS production profit is 249 yuan/ton (- 1 yuan/ton), PS production profit is - 1 yuan/ton (- 1 yuan/ton), and ABS production profit is 16 yuan/ton (+81 yuan/ton). EPS operating rate is 61.74% (+0.72%), PS operating rate is 61.20% (- 0.70%), and ABS operating rate is 69.80% (- 0.20%) [2]. V. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene Downstream - Caprolactam production profit is - 1890 yuan/ton (- 85), phenol - acetone production profit is - 196 yuan/ton (+0), aniline production profit is 62 yuan/ton (+91), and adipic acid production profit is - 1306 yuan/ton (- 12). Caprolactam operating rate is 88.69% (+2.48%), phenol operating rate is 71.00% (+2.00%), aniline operating rate is 71.95% (+6.74%), and adipic acid operating rate is 62.60% (- 1.60%) [1] Strategies - Unilateral: Short - hedge BZ and EB on rallies [4] - Basis and inter - period: None [4] - Cross - variety: None [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The price of ethylene glycol may maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short term. The cost side lacks the impetus for significant price fluctuations, the supply is stable, the demand shows no obvious change, and the increase in port inventory suppresses the price to some extent, but the decrease in arrival volume eases the pressure of further inventory increase [2] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary - **Futures and Basis**: On September 22, 2025, the futures price of the ethylene glycol main contract was 4,240 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton or 0.4% from September 19; the spot price in the East China market was 4,335 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton or 0.23%; the basis was 110 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton or 18.28%. The MEG 1 - 5 spread was - 54 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton; the MEG 5 - 9 spread was - 44 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton; the MEG 9 - 1 spread was 98 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton. The coal - to - ethylene glycol profit was - 476 yuan/ton, unchanged from September 19 [1] - **Position and Trading Volume**: The trading volume of the main contract was 113,147 lots, down 26,852 lots or 19.18% from September 19; the position was 329,607 lots, up 432 lots or 0.13% [1] - **Supply Side**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate, coal - based, oil - based, ethylene - based, and methanol - based operating rates were all unchanged from September 19, at 70.8%, 65.66%, 74.39%, 66.73%, and 62.43% respectively, indicating a stable supply [1] - **Demand Side**: The load of polyester factories and the load of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were both unchanged from September 19, at 89.42% and 63.43% respectively, with no obvious increase in downstream demand [2] - **Inventory Side**: The inventory at the main ports in East China was 48.57 tons, up 5.9 tons or 13.69% from August 1; the inventory in Zhangjiagang was 18.0 tons, up 5.2 tons or 40.62%; the arrival volume was 10.17 tons, down 6.7 tons or 39.72%. The increase in inventory and decrease in arrival volume may be due to the accumulation of previous arrival goods [2] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Futures and Spot**: The main contract price of MEG futures decreased by 0.40%, the trading volume decreased by 19.18%, and the position increased by 0.13%. The spot price in the East China market decreased by 0.23%, and the basis increased by 18.28%. The MEG 1 - 5 spread increased by 10.00%, the MEG 5 - 9 spread decreased by 109.52%, and the MEG 9 - 1 spread increased by 20.99% [4] - **Profit and Operating Rate**: The coal - to - ethylene glycol profit remained unchanged. The overall ethylene glycol operating rate, coal - based, oil - based, polyester factory load, loom load in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, ethylene - based, and methanol - based operating rates all remained unchanged [4] - **Inventory and Arrival Volume**: The inventory at the main ports in East China increased by 13.69%, the inventory in Zhangjiagang increased by 40.62%, and the arrival volume decreased by 39.72% [4] 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - **Market Performance**: On September 22, the East China US dollar market was weak, with no transactions in the morning and afternoon. The spot price in Shaanxi and the offer in the South China market were both lowered. The international oil price fell, and the ethylene glycol market was worried about strong supply and weak demand, with a weak fundamental pattern [5] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts such as the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, ethylene glycol production profit, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rate, downstream polyester plant operating rate, ethylene glycol inventory at the main ports in East China, and total ethylene glycol industry inventory [6][8][10]

化工日报 | 2025-09-23 EG主港库存持稳略增，市场弱势整理 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价4240元/吨（较前一交易日变动-17元/吨，幅度-0.40%），EG华东市场现货价 4342元/吨（较前一交易日变动-10元/吨，幅度-0.23%），EG华东现货基差（基于2509合约）93元/吨（环比+1元/吨）。 周一，乙二醇港口库存较上周同期持稳略增，需求未见好转，EG价格震荡偏弱市场弱势整理。 生产利润方面：乙烯制EG生产利润为-70美元/吨（环比+2美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为-228元/吨（环比 -25元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为46.7万吨（环比+0.2万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为38.4万吨（环比+2.1万吨）。上周主港实际到货总数8.3万吨，周度港口库存持稳略 累；本周华东主港计划到港总数7.3万吨，到港量中性偏低，副港计划到港量2.3万吨。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，国内乙二醇负荷高位持稳，海外近期乙二醇海外供应损失依旧较多，沙特仍有两 套以上装置处于停车或低负荷运行状态， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The biggest contradiction in the methanol market lies in the port. Continuous high shipments from Iran make the contradiction in the 01 contract difficult to resolve, and the 15 contract has shown a reverse spread. The price in the inland may peak in September. It is recommended to reduce long positions and continue to hold short put options [6] 3. Summaries by Related Contents Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for methanol is 2200 - 2500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.01% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 51.2%. For polypropylene, it is 6800 - 7400, with a volatility of 10.56% and a historical percentile of 42.2%. For plastic, it is also 6800 - 7400, with a volatility of 15.24% and a historical percentile of 78.5% [3] Methanol Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management (Long Spot)**: When the finished - product inventory is high and worried about price decline, for a 25% hedge, sell MA2601 futures at 2250 - 2350. Also, buy 50% MA2601P2250 put options and sell 50% MA2601C2350 call options [3] - **Inventory Management (Short Spot)**: When the procurement inventory is low and want to purchase according to orders, buy 50% MA2601 futures at 2450 - 2550. Sell 75% MA2601P2300 put options to reduce procurement costs [3] Core Contradiction - At the beginning of the week, the inland and the port were segmented. The port had continuous reverse flow, and after the inland weakened, the futures price declined. As of this week, Iran's shipment was 700,000 tons, and the September shipment is expected to be over 900,000 tons. The inland has a small inventory, some devices have recovered, and some enterprises have reduced or stopped procurement [6] Negative Factors - This week, the arrival of foreign vessels at the port is expected to be scattered, and the port's methanol inventory is expected to increase [7]