投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-06-24 地缘政治驱动油价⾛向，化⼯格局偏震 荡 美国总统周一表态，希望维持低油价，并要求美国能源生产商在美军 袭击伊朗后压低油价，原油价格因此回落。同时美国表示彻底摧毁了伊朗 的核基础设施，这一点可能也达到了美国的目的。与此同时，以色列战机 继续对伊朗的导弹系统、空军基地及福尔多核设施发动空袭。船舶跟踪数 据显示，周日有44艘油轮霍尔木兹海峡，这符合本月初以来的正常水平。 地缘政治动向决定油价波动，当前格局仍有不确定性。 板块逻辑： 油品和油化工相对于原油的估值已经出现了连续三周的压缩，假设原 油不会快速趋势走弱，化工品的格局相对原油将略略偏强，诸多品种的利 润在原油的上涨中大幅压缩，短期继续加工化工相当于在做空油价。另一 方面化工品的下游及终端对当前的高价格仍难以跟随，化工自身的上行空 间也有限。未来很可能是油价小幅调整，化工延续震荡的格局。 原油：地缘担忧缓解，油价重回弱势 LPG：地缘风险仍存，成本端支撑PG盘面 沥青：等待地缘降温，沥青期价震荡 高硫燃油：等待地缘降温，燃油期价震荡 低硫燃油：低硫燃油期价跟随 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The index of the stock index sector has stable support below and needs a driver to break through above. The A - share market opened lower and rebounded, showing a phased stabilization. The international situation is changeable in the short - term, and the index will mainly fluctuate within a range. The bond market may be affected by the central bank's bond - buying situation at the end of the month. Precious metals are affected by factors such as the Middle - East geopolitical situation and the Fed's monetary expectations, with gold and silver prices fluctuating in certain ranges. Various industrial and agricultural products are affected by factors such as supply and demand, geopolitical risks, and seasonal factors, showing different price trends and market outlooks [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - The index has stable lower support and needs a driver for upward breakthrough. A - shares opened lower and rebounded, showing phased stabilization. It is recommended to try to buy the deeply - discounted 09 contract of the CSI 1000 on dips and sell the 09 call option around 6300 to form a covered combination [2] Treasury Bonds - Pay attention to the central bank's bond - buying situation at the end of the month. If bond - buying restarts, the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate may break through 1.6%. Otherwise, the bond market may face phased callback pressure. In the unilateral strategy, appropriate long positions can be configured on adjustments for Treasury bond futures. In the cash - and - carry strategy, pay attention to the positive - carry strategy of the TS2509 contract [2] Precious Metals - Short - term news affects gold prices to fluctuate widely between $3300 - $3400. It is recommended to continue selling out - of - the - money call options. Silver prices are fluctuating in the range of $35.5 - $37. Try the double - selling strategy of out - of - the - money options for Shanghai silver [2] Shipping Index (European Line) - Low airline quotes drive the EC futures to fall. The 08 main contract fluctuates narrowly between 1900 - 2200. Unilateral operations should be on the sidelines for now. Pay attention to the long - materials and short - raw - materials arbitrage operation [2] Steel - Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. For the iron ore market, iron - making water remains at a high level, and terminal demand shows resilience. Try short - selling on rebounds, with the upper pressure level around 720. For coking coal, the market auction non - successful bid rate has decreased, coal mine production has declined from the high level, and spot prices are weakly stable. Consider going long on coking coal at low prices or long coking coal and short coke. For coke, the fourth round of price cuts by mainstream steel mills on June 23 has been implemented, and the price is close to the phased bottom. Consider long coking coal and short coke [2] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, and other non - ferrous metals show different price trends and market characteristics. For example, copper has a narrow - range fluctuation in the main contract, and it is recommended to pay attention to the supply - side recovery rhythm and adopt a high - selling strategy for tin based on inventory and import data inflection points [2] Energy - For crude oil, geopolitical risks are still uncertain in the short - term, and fundamental factors need to be considered in the long - term. Unilateral operations should wait for the situation to become clearer. For urea, short - term demand cannot support high prices, and pay attention to agricultural demand and export conditions in July. For PX and PTA, they may be dragged down by the fall in oil prices due to the decline in geopolitical premiums [2] Chemicals - Different chemical products have different market outlooks. For example, short - fiber has an expected repair of processing fees under the expectation of factory production cuts. Bottle - chip is in the demand peak season, with an expected production cut and processing fees bottoming out [2] Agricultural Products - Different agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, palm oil, cotton, and eggs show different price trends and market characteristics. For example, soybeans follow the decline of US soybeans, and pay attention to subsequent weather - related speculation. Pig prices have rebounded due to hoarding and second - fattening, and the market sentiment is strong [2] Special Commodities - For soda ash, the surplus logic continues, and maintain a high - selling strategy on rebounds. For glass, the spot market's goods - moving situation has improved, and the short - term futures price has support [2] New Energy - For polysilicon, supply has increased, and the futures price has fallen with increased positions. For lithium carbonate, the futures price remains weak, and the fundamental pressure continues [2]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 6 月 24 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | | 动力煤（元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/06/23 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/20 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/19 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/18 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/17 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 950 动力煤基差 基差（右） 动力煤现货价:秦皇岛 期货结算价(活跃合约) :动力煤 www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求 ...

期货热点追踪 在原油价格带动下，化工品今日多数冲高回落，伊朗甲醇装置停车、尿素出口利好消息持续发酵、纯碱 近期屡创历史新低，后市应如何看待？ 相关链接 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Bullish [1] - LPG: Bullish [1] - L: Short - term bullish rebound [1] - PP: Short - term bullish rebound [1] - PVC: Short - term bullish rebound [1] - PX: Bullish [1] - PTA: Short - term bullish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Short - term bullish [1] - Glass: Weak bullish rebound [2] - Soda ash: Low - level consolidation [2] - Caustic soda: Bearish rebound [2] - Methanol: Bullish [2] - Urea: Bearish but with long - position opportunities [2] - Asphalt: Bullish [2] Core Views - The current core driver of the oil market has shifted from supply - demand to geopolitics. The Israel - Iran conflict dominates oil prices, and short - term oil prices are bullish. Other chemical products are also affected by factors such as geopolitics, supply - demand, and cost [1][5]. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Market conditions**: On June 20, WTI rose 0.46%, Brent fell 0.09%, and SC rose 2.47%. The current international oil prices are high - level volatile [4]. - **Basic logic**: The core driver is geopolitical, with the Israel - Iran conflict likely to intensify. Iran threatens to block the Strait of Hormuz. Supply: Iran's oil facilities continue to operate. Demand: OPEC forecasts 2025 and 2026 demand growth. Inventory: US commercial crude inventory decreased [5]. - **Strategy**: Do not chase long positions. Consider option strategies. Long - term, due to factors like trade wars and new energy, oil prices are expected to range between $60 - 70 per barrel. Short - term, expect high - level volatility. SC to focus on [560 - 590] [5][6] LPG - **Market conditions**: On June 20, the PG main contract closed at 4557 yuan/ton, up 1.00%. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China had different changes [7]. - **Basic logic**: Geopolitical factors drive up oil prices, which in turn affect LPG. Cost - profit, supply, demand, and inventory all show certain trends. For example, PDH, MTBE, and alkylation开工率 increased, and port inventory decreased [8]. - **Strategy**: Double - buy option strategy. Long - term, the central price may decline. Short - term, due to geopolitics, be cautious with short positions. PG to focus on [4550 - 4750] [9] L - **Market conditions**: The L main contract showed certain price and position changes [10]. - **Basic logic**: Recent shutdown and maintenance of devices, with reduced supply expectations. Downstream demand has a slowdown in restocking. Geopolitical impact on cost weakens. Import may shrink due to the conflict. Maintenance intensity increases this week, and production is expected to decline [10]. - **Strategy**: Short - term bullish. Negative basis, upstream enterprises can consider selling hedging. L to focus on [7350 - 7550] [10] PP - **Market conditions**: The PP main contract price and position changed [13]. - **Basic logic**: Cost support improves, but the terminal market has not improved substantially. Supply pressure is high in June - July. Domestic demand is in the off - season, and export margins turn negative [13]. - **Strategy**: Short - term bullish following the cost. PP to focus on [7150 - 7350] [13] PVC - **Market conditions**: The PVC main contract price and position changed [15]. - **Basic logic**: Macro - policy uncertainty and energy price fluctuations affect the market. Supply remains high, domestic demand is poor, and foreign trade has no growth space. Cost support is weak [15]. - **Strategy**: Short - term bullish rebound following the cost. Short - term long, long - term short. V to focus on [4850 - 5050] [15] PX - **Market conditions**: On June 20, PX spot price in East China was flat, and the PX09 contract price decreased. The basis converged [17]. - **Basic logic**: PX profit improves, and domestic and foreign device loads are high. Supply and demand are expected to increase. Inventory is decreasing but still high. PXN spread is not low, and the basis is converging [18]. - **Strategy**: Look for opportunities to go long at low prices. PX to focus on [7020 - 7200] [18][19] PTA - **Market conditions**: On June 20, PTA spot price in East China increased, and the TA09 contract price decreased. The basis strengthened [20]. - **Basic logic**: Supply pressure is expected to increase due to device restarts and new capacity. Downstream polyester load is high, but terminal weaving load is declining. Inventory is decreasing, processing fees are high [21]. - **Strategy**: Go long at low prices. TA to focus on [4930 - 5080] [21] Ethylene Glycol - **Market conditions**: On June 20, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China increased, and the EG09 contract price decreased. The basis strengthened [22]. - **Basic logic**: Device load increases, but arrivals and imports are low. Demand is expected to weaken, downstream polyester load is high, but terminal weaving load is declining. Inventory is decreasing [23]. - **Strategy**: Look for low - long opportunities. EG to focus on [4480 - 4560] [24] Glass - **Market conditions**: The glass main contract price increased slightly, and the basis weakened [25]. - **Basic logic**: Commodity sentiment warms up, but glass mid - term demand decline has not been alleviated. In the short - term, upstream inventory accumulates, and the cost of coal - based production still has profit, so large - scale cold repair is difficult [26]. - **Strategy**: Reduce short positions. The 5 - day moving average provides weak support. FG to focus on [990 - 1020] [26] Soda Ash - **Market conditions**: The soda ash main contract price decreased slightly, and the basis fluctuated narrowly. Warehouse receipts decreased [28]. - **Basic logic**: Supply increases as device maintenance ends, and new capacity is expected. Demand from float glass and photovoltaic glass weakens. Inventory accumulates, and the cost center moves down [28]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, coal prices rebound, and the cost suppresses the decline speed. Pay attention to the pressure of the 10 - day moving average. SA to focus on [1150 - 1180] [2] Caustic Soda - **Market conditions**: The caustic soda spot price decreased, and the main contract price rebounded weakly. The basis weakened [30]. - **Basic logic**: Supply is at a high level, and demand from alumina decreases. Overall demand is weakening [30]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the pressure of the 10 - day moving average. SH to focus on [2230 - 2280] [2] Methanol - **Market conditions**: Not detailed in the text. - **Basic logic**: Upstream profit is good, and domestic device load is high. Iranian supply is expected to decline due to the conflict. Demand feedback is negative, and inventory is low [2]. - **Strategy**: The 09 contract is short - term bullish. Lightly go long, but also pay attention to high - short opportunities. Consider going long on the 01 contract. MA to focus on [2500 - 2600] [2] Urea - **Market conditions**: Not detailed in the text. - **Basic logic**: Supply pressure is high, but agricultural demand is expected to pick up. The Israel - Iran conflict affects international supply, and international prices are short - term bullish [2]. - **Strategy**: Look for long - position opportunities at low prices. UR to focus on [1740 - 1780] [2] Asphalt - **Market conditions**: Not detailed in the text. - **Basic logic**: Price is driven by oil prices. Supply increases, inventory accumulates, and demand shows a "north - strong, south - weak" pattern [2]. - **Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see. BU to focus on [3750 - 3900] [2]

化工期货市场链式发展将迎来新品种 同时，我国是世界最大的纯苯生产国、消费国和进口国，近年来，纯苯产业链各端产能调整步调不一， 利润传导不畅。 中化石化销售有限公司副总经理吴光表示，纯苯期货、期权上市后，最直接的好处就是产业链各参与企 业可以通过期货工具快速、直接锁定原料采购或产品销售价格，规避价格剧烈波动风险，提高企业价格 风险管理能力。 "行业供需未来的变化会提前在期货价格中有所体现，这种价格发现功能将帮助企业更快完成供需调 节，保障企业生产经营和发展的稳定性"。吴光进一步分析称。 除了纯苯，上游原料同为石油的化工品丙烯也将迎来金融工具。 化工领域衍生品加速扩容。 6月20日，证监会发布通知，同意大商所纯苯期货和期权注册。 大商所相关负责人称，作为芳烃产业链重要原料产品，纯苯期货和期权的上市将进一步丰富化工产业风 险管理"工具箱"，提升国际价格影响力具有重要意义。 行业人士介绍称，纯苯是重要的有机化工原料，产业链上承石油和煤两大基础能源，下接合成树脂、合 成纤维、合成橡胶三大产业，终端产品涉及纺织、家电、轮胎、染料等。 "近年来受国际原油价格、全球经济形势、贸易格局、产能变化等多重因素影响，我国纯苯现货市场 ...

化工日报 | 2025-06-20 中东地缘风险尚未缓解，EG偏强运行 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价4539元/吨（较前一交易日变动+68元/吨，幅度+1.52%），EG华东市场现货价 4547元/吨（较前一交易日变动+0元/吨，幅度+0.00%），EG华东现货基差（基于2509合约）80元/吨（环比-8元/吨）。 上周末以色列袭击伊朗石油、天然气等能源基础设施，地缘冲突影响下原油价格大幅上行，乙二醇成本端推动明 显。周二阿曼湾三条游轮相撞起火，同时伊朗EG装置停车面进一步扩大，因安全保证停车中，共涉及135万吨产能， 后续恢复进度等待政府通知，乙二醇盘面偏强运行，继续关注中东地缘冲突演变，以及港口发货影响。 生产利润方面：乙烯制EG生产利润为-39美元/吨（环比+4美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为227元/吨（环比 +77元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为61.6万吨（环比-1.8万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为53.7万吨（环比-2.7万吨）。上周主港实际到货总数10.8万吨，港口库存平稳略增； 本周华东 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides mid - term outlooks for various energy and chemical products, including "oscillating", "oscillating strongly", "oscillating weakly", etc., which can be used as a reference for the investment outlook of individual products [266]. 2. Core View of the Report - The energy and chemical sector is in a complex situation. Chemical products generally follow the strong trend of crude oil. The geopolitical risk between Iran and Israel has intensified, leading to increased volatility in crude oil prices, which in turn affects the prices of downstream chemical products [1][2]. - The overall outlook for the energy and chemical sector is a strong - oscillating trend, and a long - short allocation strategy is recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - On June 19, SC2508 closed at 570.9 yuan/barrel, up 3.29%, and Brent2508 closed at 78.74 dollars/barrel, up 3.5%. - Geopolitical concerns in the Middle East dominate short - term oil price fluctuations. Although there have been attacks on energy infrastructure, there has been no substantial impact on crude oil production. Oil prices are expected to oscillate with high volatility [6]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - The main asphalt futures closed at 3695 yuan/ton. Spot prices in East China, Northeast China, and Shandong were 3770 yuan/ton, 3990 yuan/ton, and 3800 yuan/ton respectively. - Due to the escalation of the Iran - Israel geopolitical situation, asphalt prices have a geopolitical premium. However, in the medium - long term, the increase in heavy oil supply will put pressure on the asphalt cracking spread. The absolute price of asphalt is overvalued [7]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The main high - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 3333 yuan/ton. - Geopolitical factors have led to a sharp increase in prices, but in the medium - long term, the increase in heavy oil supply will put pressure on the cracking spread. Overall, supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [8][9]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The main low - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 3921 yuan/ton. - It follows the trend of crude oil. Currently, it has a low valuation and is facing various negative factors such as weak shipping demand and green energy substitution. It is expected to fluctuate with crude oil [10]. 3.1.5 LPG - On June 19, 2025, the PG 2508 contract closed at 4513 yuan/ton, up 1.28%. - Driven by rising crude oil prices, the supply pressure has been relieved, and the chemical demand has recovered. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [10]. 3.1.6 PX - On June 19, the CFR price of PX in Taiwan, China was 904 (16) dollars/ton, and PX 2509 closed at 7094 (106) yuan/ton. - The supply capacity of Asian PX is increasing, and the support from the supply - demand fundamentals in China is weakening. Short - term fluctuations are mainly affected by crude oil. It is expected to be strong in the short term due to production cut news [12]. 3.1.7 PTA - On June 19, the spot price of PTA was 5175 (- 30) yuan/ton, and the spot processing fee was 269 (- 118) yuan/ton. - The supply - demand situation of PTA is weakening at the margin, and it follows the short - term trend of crude oil. It is expected to be strong in the short term following the cost side [12]. 3.1.8 Styrene - On June 19, the spot price of styrene in East China was 8050 (100) yuan/ton. - The future driving force is insufficient. The supply may increase, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate weakly [11][12]. 3.1.9 Ethylene Glycol (EG) - On June 19, the price of ethylene glycol increased, and the basis weakened. - It has a low - inventory pattern and is driven by rising crude oil prices. The weekly operating rate reached a five - year high. It is expected to oscillate strongly [14][15]. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - On June 19, the price of polyester short - fiber was 6800 (+ 55) yuan/ton. - The short - fiber industry has a good pattern. The rise in crude oil prices leads to a compensatory increase in the downstream industry chain. The processing fee has limited compression space. It is expected to oscillate strongly [15][16]. 3.1.11 Bottle Chip - On June 19, the price of polyester bottle chips increased with the rise of raw materials. - The processing fee is in an oscillating pattern. As production cuts are implemented, the processing fee is expected to expand. Long positions in the processing fee can be gradually arranged [17]. 3.1.12 Methanol - On June 19, the low - end spot price of methanol in Taicang was 2750 yuan/ton. - The situation in Iran provides short - term support. The inventory in ports has decreased, and coal prices have stabilized. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [20][21]. 3.1.13 Urea - On June 19, the low - end factory and market prices of urea were 1790 (+ 20) and 1820 (+ 0) respectively. - High supply continues, but the demand at home and abroad has started. The overseas supply is affected by geopolitics, leading to a sharp increase in overseas prices. It is expected to oscillate strongly [21]. 3.1.14 LLDPE (Plastic) - On June 19, the mainstream spot price of LLDPE was 7400 (20) yuan/ton. - Affected by the rise in oil prices, the short - term price has rebounded. However, the fundamentals are still under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [23]. 3.1.15 PP - On June 19, the mainstream transaction price of East China wire drawing was 7250 (30) yuan/ton. - Driven by the rise in oil prices and supported by methanol, the supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [24]. 3.1.16 PVC - On June 19, the benchmark price of PVC by calcium carbide method in East China was 4840 (+ 0) yuan/ton. - Affected by the rise in energy prices, but the fundamentals are still under pressure. The cost has increased, and it is expected to oscillate [26]. 3.1.17 Caustic Soda - On June 19, the price of 50% caustic soda in Shandong was 2760 (+ 0) yuan/ton. - The supply and demand are weak in June and July. The spot price is under pressure, and the futures price follows the production - cut logic. It is expected to operate weakly [27]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - The report provides data on the basis, change values, and warehouse receipts of various products such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. It also shows cross - variety spreads and their change values [28]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Although the report lists various products such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., no specific data or analysis content is provided in the given text.

化工日报 | 2025-06-19 伊朗PX装置停车，市场情绪偏强 市场要闻与数据 6月18日，PX/PTA/PF主力合约分别上涨3.83%、3.45%、3.05%，主要原因是中东地缘冲突带来的原油价格大幅上 涨以及PX供需紧张下的情绪驱动。 一方面原油价格走势偏强，成本支撑PX/PTA价格，主要驱动依然来自于地缘冲突。中东局势当前仍较为紧张，虽 然伊朗与以色列没有再袭击能源基础设施，但霍尔木兹海峡的船只雷达信号被干扰，昨日有两艘油轮在海峡附近 相撞起火，部分船只可能选择回避，船东的避险动作已经开始显现。另一方面，美国直接参与本次冲突的概率增 加，特朗普可能让美军直接打击伊朗核设施，这会让冲突的事态显著升级，伊朗石油生产与出口存在断供风险。 极端情况下，伊朗可能封锁霍尔木兹海峡用以报复，这将使得整个阿拉伯湾石油出口受到影响，原油市场供应将 大幅收紧。 另一方面，PTA/PX现货供应依然偏紧，周内窗口内外商积极挺价进一步助涨PX涨幅，周三早上浮动价8月在+20/+35 商谈，9月在+10/+25商谈，较上周大幅提升；另外伊朗142万吨PX装置因战争因素停车，重启待定，此前该装置半 负荷运行；同时市场对于国内PX ...

化工日报 | 2025-06-19 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价4471元/吨（较前一交易日变动+71元/吨，幅度+1.61%），EG华东市场现货价 4547元/吨（较前一交易日变动+77元/吨，幅度+1.72%），EG华东现货基差（基于2509合约）88元/吨（环比+3元/ 吨）。上周末以色列袭击伊朗石油、天然气等能源基础设施，地缘冲突影响下原油价格大幅上行，乙二醇成本端推 动明显。周二阿曼湾三条游轮相撞起火，同时伊朗EG装置停车面进一步扩大，因安全保证停车中，共涉及135万吨 产能，后续恢复进度等待政府通知，乙二醇盘面震荡抬升，继续关注中东地缘冲突演变，以及港口发货影响。 生产利润方面：乙烯制EG生产利润为-43美元/吨（环比-3美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为150元/吨（环比+33 元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为61.6万吨（环比-1.8万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为56.4万吨（环比-3.4万吨）。上周主港实际到货总数10.8万吨，港口库存平稳略增； 本周华东主港计划到港总数10.0万吨，中性，港口库存预计平稳， ...