厂家 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 1 : 欢迎关注微信公众号 品种 主力合约 板块 点评 操作建议 关税谈判空间仍存。指数仍处低位,关注后续国内 IF2506 对冲政策情况带来修复机会,而下方支撑稳定,再 IH2506 股指 地产链活跃上扬,A股缩量整理 次破位概率极低。建议卖出前低位沪深300在 IC2506 3550点附近,中证1000在5500点附近行权价5 IM2506 月看跌期权收取权利金。 T2506 短期长债利率下行接近前低下行速度放缓,走势进入震荡等待 单边策略上短期建议可以逢调整适当做多。基差策 TF2506 方向指引阶段(10债波动区间处于1.63%-1.67%),但考虑 略上,建议参与各品种正套策略。曲线策略上建议 国债 金融 TS2506 到资金面转松期叠加宽货币预期利多未出尽,期债短期调整后 适当关注做陡 TL2506 有企稳回升动能 欧美市场即将连续休市,黄金建议短线以日内 AU2506 780-790元区间高抛低吸为主:白银在30-34美 贵金属 欧洲央行如期降息 美元止跌 多头获利离场贵金属回落 AG2506 元(7600-8500元)区间震荡 短期情绪低迷,可 ...

| 玻璃纯碱期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年4月16日 | | | | 蒋诗语 | Z00170002 | | 玻璃相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 现值 | | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华北报价 1250 | | 1250 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 1370 华东报价 | | 1370 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华中报价 1180 | | 1180 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华南报价 | 1330 | 1330 | 0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 玻璃2505 | 1144 | 1152 | -8 | -0.69% | | | 玻璃2509 | 1181 | 1206 | -25 | -2.07% | | | 05基差 | 106 | ರಿ8 | 8 | 8.16% | | | 纯碱相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 肌值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 単位 | | ...

| 业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 〔2011〕 1292号 | | | | 纪元菲 Z0013180 | | | 现货价格及主力合约基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 4月11日 | 4月10日 | 消费 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华东通氧SI5530工业硅 | 10100 | 10150 | -50 | -0.49% | | | 基差(通氧SI5530基准) | ୧୩5 | રેત્રે ર | 50 | 8.40% | | | 华东SI4210工业硅 | 10900 | 10900 | 0 | 0.00% | 元/肥 | | 基差(SI4210基准) | 645 | ર્ત્વર | 100 | 18.35% | | | 新疆99硅 | d350 | a350 | O | 0.00% | | | 基差(新疆) | ୧୦୧ | રેતેર | 100 | 16.81% | | | 月间价差 | | | | | | | 合约 | 4月11日 | 4月10日 | 消歧失 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 2504-25 ...

期货研究报告|甲醇周报 2025-04-13 关税政策扰动，甲醇底部震荡 研究院 化工组 研究员 梁宗泰 020-83901031 liangzongtai@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3056198 投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉 020-83901135 cl@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0233775 投资咨询号：Z0000421 联系人 杨露露 0755-82790795 yanglulu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03128371 吴硕琮 020-83901158 wushuocong@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03119179 刘启展 020-83901049 liuqizhan@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03140168 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 甲醇观点 ■ 市场要闻与重要数据 卓创甲醇开工率 74%（+1.15%），西北开工率 81.63%（+0.85%）。国内开工率逐步提升到 中位水平。联泓化学 46+46 万吨/年煤制甲醇装置于 4 月 7 日起停车检修，为期时间待 定；兖矿国宏 64 万吨/年煤制甲醇装置双炉运行；内蒙古荣信该厂 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 450 550 650 750 850 950 1050 动力煤基差 基差（右） 动力煤现货价:秦皇岛 期货结算价(活跃合约) :动力煤 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 4 月 11 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | | 动力煤（元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/04/10 | -136.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/04/09 | -136.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/04/08 | -136.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/04/07 | -136.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/04/03 | -136.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼 ...

2025 年 4 月 7 日星期一 地址： 电话： 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67070250 上海市浦东新区向城路 288 号 1101A； 021-61101856 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 铁合金： | | 8 | | --- | --- | --- | | 原油： | | 8 | | 燃料油： | | 9 | | 合成橡胶： | | 10 | | 天然橡胶： | | 10 | | PVC： | | 11 | | 尿素： | | 12 | | 对二甲苯 | PX： | 12 | | PTA： | | 13 | | 乙二醇： | | 13 | | 短纤： | | 14 | | 瓶片： | | 14 | | 纯碱： | | 15 | | 玻璃： | | 15 | | 烧碱： | | 15 | | 纸浆： | | 16 | | 碳酸锂： | | 17 | | 铜： | | 17 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 18 | | 镍： | | 18 | | 工业硅/多晶硅： | | 18 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 19 | | 棕榈油： | | 20 ...

这个周末很多股民都过的很忐忑，担心周一行情受贸易战冲击出现暴跌。 我们对美出口占比15%，加上转口贸易可能在17-18%，这部分贸易被关税壁垒挤压后，中国很大概率会 在国内执行进一步的刺激政策来对冲利空，央行择机降准降息择了那么久，估计下周要落地了。但仅仅 降准降息是不够的，我猜后续会有更大规模的政府投资，和更直接的消费刺激。 所以消费板块有机会异军突起，在这种特殊的环境下成为a股的新热点，以及那些公司主营全部来自国 内市场的公司，理论上都会有跑赢大盘的表现。比如周四涨幅最高的是养殖板块，基本是内销市场。 中国自身的消费规模占gdp大约是4成，世界上其它国家的平均水平是在6成左右。之所以我们的比例偏 低，不是因为我们的消费规模小，事实上中国已经是连续十余年的全球第二大消费市场，但问题是我们 的生产能力更惊人，全球断层领先。 目前看形势确实不太好，在中国宣布关税反制措施后，新加坡a50期指大概比周四下午3点的位置下跌了 4%，周五晚上纳斯达克中国金龙指数下跌8.87%，种种迹象表明明天早上开盘会是一个大幅跳空低开， 我判断大概在-2%到-3%区间。 低开-2%的话反弹空间其实不大的，因为稍微向上涨涨就会面临33 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the recent tariff measures implemented by the Trump administration, highlighting the potential impacts on macroeconomic conditions, financial markets, and various commodity sectors, particularly in the context of rising inflation and economic slowdown [3][4][5]. Group 1: Macroeconomic and Financial Market Impacts - The overall policy is hawkish but includes some buffer measures, such as exemptions for certain goods and a staggered implementation timeline [5]. - The market reaction to the announcement included declines in U.S. stock futures, lower U.S. Treasury yields, depreciation of the offshore RMB, and fluctuations in gold prices [5]. - The shift towards a stagflation trading logic is noted, with high tariffs and potential retaliatory measures exacerbating the macroeconomic landscape of "slowing growth + stubborn inflation" [5][6]. - The U.S. may consider further tax cuts and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve to alleviate economic pressure [6]. Group 2: Commodity Market Impacts Non-ferrous and Precious Metals - The unexpected tariffs signify an acceleration of the de-globalization process, impacting both domestic and global demand levels [10]. - Copper is expected to remain supported due to its exemption from tariffs, while aluminum faces significant import reliance and high tariffs already imposed [11]. - Gold has been exempted from tariffs, but market volatility is anticipated due to economic uncertainties [13]. Energy - The tariff measures do not apply to imported crude oil and natural gas, mitigating potential cost increases for energy imports [15]. - The overall impact on oil demand is expected to be negative due to heightened global economic pressures from the trade war [16]. Chemicals - The tariffs are likely to negatively impact China's chemical exports, particularly in textiles and plastics, as the U.S. is a major market [22][24]. - The overall sentiment in the chemical sector is bearish, with potential declines in exports to the U.S. and increased costs for producers [26]. Black Metals - China's steel exports to the U.S. are minimal, but indirect impacts through third-party countries could affect pricing and demand [28]. - The overall steel market is expected to face pressure from U.S. tariffs, particularly on hot-rolled products [28]. Agricultural Products - The tariffs primarily affect U.S. corn exports, with minimal impact on China's domestic corn prices due to self-sufficiency [29]. - China's soybean imports are increasingly sourced from Brazil, reducing the impact of U.S. tariffs on supply chains [30]. - The tariffs on canola oil and palm oil are expected to create supply chain disruptions and price volatility in the respective markets [31][32]. Soft Commodities - The cotton market is likely to face downward pressure due to reduced competitiveness in textile exports to the U.S. [35][36]. - The rubber market may also experience negative impacts from reduced tire exports to the U.S. [37].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The view is to wait for a long - entry opportunity for MEG, but the downside space may also be large. The recommended contract is eg2505. The logic is that although MEG inventory slightly accumulated in Q1 2025, the medium - to - long - term supply - demand driver is still upward under the current low port inventory. However, the cost of crude oil and coal prices has moved downward weakly. It is recommended to go long at low prices after the cost side stabilizes [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Upstream Prices - On April 2, 2025, compared with the previous day, the price of naphtha CFR Japan decreased by 1 to 645.00, the price of动力煤 (内蒙Q5500) remained unchanged at 495.00, the price of ethylene Northeast Asia remained unchanged at 855.00, and the price of methanol in Taicang decreased by 8 to 2571.00 [7]. 2. EG Each Process Profit - On April 1, 2025, compared with March 31, 2025, MEG's import profit increased by 13.31 to - 51.65 yuan/ton, oil - made profit increased by 72.27 to - 1168.02 yuan/ton, coal - made profit increased, ethylene - made profit increased by 65.41 to - 741.10 yuan/ton, methanol - made profit increased by 80.48 to - 1597.51 yuan/ton, and the weighted profit increased by 70.05 to - 803.66 yuan/ton [7]. 3. EG Basis, Spread and Position - On April 1, 2025, compared with March 31, 2025, EG5 - month basis decreased by 2 to 41.00 [7]. 4. PF Basis and Profit - On April 1, 2025, compared with March 31, 2025, the spot profit of direct - spun polyester staple fiber decreased by 31.57 to 139.37, the closing price of PF2505 increased by 72 to 6662, the short - fiber main - contract disk profit decreased by 59.48 to 60.34, and the polyester staple fiber basis decreased by 72 to 88 [7]. 5. Industrial Chain Operation Suggestions - For refineries with high MEG inventory worried about price drops, they can long eg2505 at 4500 with a 50% hedging ratio to hedge against risks [5]. - For traders, when establishing inventory and seeking to buy MEG at low prices, they can buy call options eg2505 - C - 4900 at 115 with a 50% ratio to prevent price increases; when having inventory and seeking to sell at high prices, they can short eg2505 at 4600 with a 50% ratio for short - term risk prevention [5]. - For terminal customers in need of polyester raw materials worried about price increases, they can buy call options eg2505 - C - 4900 at 115 with a 50% ratio [5].

苯乙烯产业链早报 日期:2025-04-02 ZHESHANG FUTURES 苯乙烯产业链早报 》 关注数据： 周一隆众纯苯及苯乙烯塔口库存、周三华瑞纯苯及苯乙烯港口库存、周四苯乙烯产业链负荷及库存、周五纯苯产业链负荷及库存 【撰写人】 浙商期货有限公司 曾滢月 (Z0021083) 【咨询电话】 0571-87213861 【免责声明】 本队原基于我比司及其研究人员认为可能放公开资伴或实地很阳资料，但我公司及复研究人员达达些高息的年睹估钉完整"压不作任丹职证。观点中的信息或所靠达意见不构或优经，法律、会计或税务短跟终操作建议，我公司不就观点内欧洲最终解控以比如 任何担保。 来连不公司分许，不得以狂何方式传达，复印或就发出观点的优兴，内容或夏邛本予以任何禁仙，或敌入商业使带，未经预仅转载萨公司不承担任府景后。独立有公司同意的转发成应道通照反本等房并准例出处"浙南班货同队公司"。所有在中俄首央伝的 商标、服务标识及标记,除非另有说明，均为本公司的商标、服务标识及标记,本公司保留一切权利。 日度描述 原油整体偏强运行,国内纯苯利润近期持续修复至季节性高位,苯乙烯非一体化利润近期整体估值低位。 价格区润粉厂搞定市 ...