证券之星消息，1月20日橡胶板块较上一交易日上涨1.6%，彤程新材领涨。当日上证指数报收于 4113.65，下跌0.01%。深证成指报收于14155.63，下跌0.97%。橡胶板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 603650 | 彤程新材 | 64.30 | 6.37% | 49.58万 | 30.60亿 | | 301459 | 丰戊股份 | 51.60 | 2.28% | 6.37万 | 3.29亿 | | 002753 | 永东股份 | 7.53 | 1.89% | 11.91万 | 8912.20万 | | 301300 | 远翔新材 | 46.53 | 0.89% | - 3.17万 | 1.49亿 | | 002224 | 三力士 | 4.59 | 0.88% | 31.64万 | 1.45 乙 | | 605183 | 确成股份 | 21.36 | 0.66% | 3.94万 | 8398.74万 | | 002381 | 双箭股份 | 6.95 ...

化工日报 | 2026-01-20 青岛港口库存继续回升 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约15745元/吨，较前一日变动-90元/吨；NR主力合约12655元/吨，较前一日变动-90 元/吨；BR主力合约11605元/吨，较前一日变动-210元/吨。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格15500元/吨，较前一日变动-100元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14850元/吨，较前一 日变动-80元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1900美元/吨，较前一日变动-5美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶1825 美元/吨，较前一日变动-5美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格11700元/吨，较前一日变动-200元/吨。浙江传 化BR9000市场价11550元/吨，较前一日变动-150元/吨。 市场资讯 据中国海关总署1月14日公布的数据显示，2025年12月中国进口天然及合成橡胶（含胶乳）合计95.3万吨，较2024 年同期的80.5万吨增加18.4%。2025年中国进口天然及合成橡胶（含胶乳）共计852.5万吨，较2024年的730.3万吨增 加16.7%。 2025年12月我国汽车产销分别完成329.6万辆 ...

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2026-01-20 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 多空分歧出现，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 | 2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 多空分歧出现，合成胶震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：随着泰国和柬埔寨两国宣布停战，地缘风险因 ...

Oil Market - WTI prices were not available due to the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday, while Brent crude for March closed at $63.94 per barrel, down $0.19, a decrease of 0.30% [2][15] - Domestic crude oil production in China for 2025 is projected to be 21,605 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, with processing volume at 73,759 million tons, up 4.1% [2][15] - The market is currently experiencing a seasonal decline in diesel and gasoline demand, with oil prices showing no significant driving force, maintaining a volatile trend [2][15] Fuel Oil - The main contract for fuel oil (FU2603) rose by 0.12% to 2,538 yuan per ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil (LU2603) increased by 0.07% to 3,060 yuan per ton [16] - Supply of low-sulfur fuel oil is expected to be sufficient, with Singapore receiving approximately 290-300 million tons in January, up from 260-270 million tons in December [16] - The geopolitical situation in Iran continues to significantly impact oil prices, with fluctuations expected to follow oil price movements [16][4] Asphalt - The main contract for asphalt (BU2602) increased by 0.29% to 3,142 yuan per ton, with concerns over raw material supply easing slightly [17] - The market is currently facing a "weak demand reality" against a backdrop of "strong cost expectations," particularly as winter weather impacts demand [17] Rubber - The main contract for rubber (RU2605) fell by 90 yuan per ton to 15,745 yuan per ton, with NR and BR contracts also experiencing declines [18] - China's rubber tire exports for 2025 are expected to reach 9.65 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.6% [18] - Inventory levels for natural rubber in Qingdao increased, indicating a seasonal accumulation trend [18] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA605 closed at 5,030 yuan per ton, up 0.24%, while EG2605 fell by 1.08% to 3,755 yuan per ton [19] - PX futures closed at 7,106 yuan per ton, with a slight increase of 0.28%, and the market is expected to see some support due to supply reductions [19] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were reported at 2,207 yuan per ton, with CFR China prices ranging from $262 to $266 per ton [21] - Domestic supply remains stable, but demand is under pressure due to reduced operating rates in MTO facilities [21] Polyolefins - Polypropylene prices are under pressure, with production margins for various methods showing negative values [22] - Demand is expected to recover slightly in early January, but inventory levels are anticipated to rise as the month progresses [22] PVC - PVC prices have decreased, with the market experiencing a supply-demand imbalance and overall bearish sentiment [23] - The upcoming end of export tax rebates is expected to increase upward pressure on long-term contracts [23] Urea - Urea futures prices are experiencing weak fluctuations, with the main contract closing at 1,772 yuan per ton, down 1.45% [24] - Market sentiment is declining, with production rates and demand showing signs of weakness ahead of the Spring Festival [24] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures prices are fluctuating, with the main contract closing at 1,192 yuan per ton, down 0.33% [25] - The industry is facing pressure from supply and demand dynamics, with cautious sentiment prevailing in the market [25] Glass - Glass futures prices fell significantly, with the main contract closing at 1,070 yuan per ton, down 2.9% [26] - The market is experiencing a supply recovery, but demand remains cautious, leading to a bearish outlook [26]

Group 1: Sugar in the Agricultural, Forestry, and Livestock Sector Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The domestic sugar market has a calm fundamental situation with no unexpected news. Technically, the recent trend of Zhengzhou sugar has weakened, and the overall commodity performance is sluggish. The market is expected to be in a weakly oscillating state in the short - term, and the support at the lower integer level should be monitored [1]. Key Points from the Directory - **Market Review**: On January 19, 2026, the closing price of the SR605 contract was 5,244 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.27%, and the night - session closed at 5,233 yuan/ton. The SR609 contract closed at 5,260 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.13%, and the night - session closed at 5,245 yuan/ton [1]. - **Important Information**: The spot price of white sugar in Guangxi was 5,306 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton. The quotation range of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5,310 - 5,380 yuan/ton, and that of Yunnan sugar - making groups was 5,170 - 5,210 yuan/ton, with an overall reduction of 10 yuan/ton. The mainstream quotation range of processing sugar mills was 5,700 - 5,900 yuan/ton, with an individual reduction of 10 yuan/ton. As of January 15, 2026, India's sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season reached 15.909 million tons, a nearly 22% increase from the same period last year. The number of sugar mills in operation was 518, an increase of 18 from the same period last year. As of January 17, 2026, Thailand's cumulative sugarcane crushing volume was 29.2643 million tons, a decrease of 5.6156 million tons or 16.09% from the same period last year. The sugar content was 11.95%, an increase of 0.08% from the same period last year. The sugar production rate was 9.790%, a decrease of 0.024% from the same period last year. Sugar production was 2.8651 million tons, a decrease of 0.5581 million tons or 16.3% from the same period last year. The number of white - sugar warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 14,126, with a daily increase of 0 [1]. - **Market Logic**: The ICE raw - sugar market was closed due to a US holiday, so there was no quotation. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar oscillated weakly. The latest data from Thailand and India were negative for international sugar prices, while the domestic white - sugar market had a calm fundamental situation [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold the long - term short position of the SR605 contract and monitor the support performance around 5,200 [1]. Group 2: Rubber in the Energy and Chemical Sector Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The natural - rubber market has insufficient positive fundamental support due to the weakening of overseas raw - material prices and the continuation of the seasonal inventory - accumulation trend. The synthetic - rubber market is affected by the weakening of the commodity sentiment, and the short - term price is mainly in the process of adjustment. In general, the rubber sector is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the support below. The medium - to - long - term strategy is to go long at low prices [5]. Key Points from the Directory - **Market Review**: As of January 19, 2026, the closing price of the RU2605 contract was 15,745 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.57%. The NR2603 contract closed at 12,655 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.71%. The BR2603 contract closed at 11,605 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.78% [5]. - **Important Information**: The price of raw - material glue in Thailand was 57.5 Thai baht/kg, a decrease of 0.5 Thai baht or 0.86%. The cup - rubber price was 52 Thai baht/kg, a decrease of 0.20 Thai baht or 0.38%. The price of Yunnan rubber blocks was 13,200 yuan/ton, with no change. As of January 18, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general - trade areas in Qingdao was 584,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,700 tons or 2.94%. The bonded - area inventory was 99,500 tons, an increase of 6.42%. The general - trade inventory was 485,400 tons, an increase of 2.26%. The inbound rate of the bonded - warehouse samples of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 0.85 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.05 percentage points. The inbound rate of general - trade warehouses increased by 0.72 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.55 percentage points. The price of whole - latex was 15,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan or 0.64%. The price of 20 - grade Thai standard rubber was 1,900 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars or 0.26%, equivalent to 13,310 yuan/ton in RMB. The price of 20 - grade Thai mixed rubber was 14,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan or 0.54%. The spread between the RU and NR main contracts was 3,090 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spread between the mixed - standard rubber and the RU main contract was - 895 yuan/ton, a month - on - month contraction of 10 yuan/ton. The delivery price of butadiene in the central Shandong region was around 9,500 - 9,600 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China was around 9,150 - 9,250 yuan/ton. The market prices of cis - butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber declined. The price of Daqing BR9000 in the Shandong market dropped 50 yuan to 11,700 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene 1502 in the Shandong market dropped 150 yuan to 12,100 yuan/ton [5]. - **Market Logic**: For natural rubber, the price continued to fall. With the weakening of overseas raw - material prices and the continuation of the seasonal inventory - accumulation trend, the fundamental situation was not favorable. For synthetic rubber, although the internal and external prices and supply of butadiene still provided some support to the market, the weakening of the commodity sentiment led to a decline in the actual - transaction price center. The production - device load of cis - butadiene rubber decreased slightly, but there was still inventory pressure [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the support near the moving average in the short - term for the rubber sector, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is to go long at low prices [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic natural rubber main producing areas are in the off - season, while the Thai producing areas are still in the peak production period. Recently, the total inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to accumulate. The inventory in bonded and general trade warehouses has both increased, with the total accumulation amplitude showing little change compared to the previous period. Overseas shipments arriving at the port are mainly African rubber. The total quantity continues to increase, and the bonded warehouse continues to accumulate inventory. The downstream enterprises' sentiment of stocking up at low prices has improved, and the total outbound volume has increased month - on - month. The inventory accumulation amplitude of general trade has narrowed. In the short term, some tire enterprises will stock up at low prices, and the outbound volume is expected to increase slightly. - In terms of demand, last week, as the production scheduling of maintenance enterprises gradually stabilized, the operating rate of domestic tire enterprises increased significantly month - on - month. In the short term, supported by foreign trade orders, the operating rate of some semi - steel tire enterprises will remain at a high level, and the overall production scheduling is expected to remain basically stable. There is still a phenomenon of production control in all - steel tire enterprises to control inventory. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,700 - 16,400 in the short term, and the nr2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,500 - 13,250 in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 15,745 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 12,655 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber was 40 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the 2 - 3 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 30 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 3,090 yuan/ton, unchanged. The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 186,443 lots, down 4,496 lots; the position of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 65,825 lots, down 1,827 lots. The net position of the top 20 of Shanghai rubber was - 47,777 lots, up 3,783 lots; the net position of the top 20 of 20 - number rubber was - 10,191 lots, up 1,242 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 109,890 tons, up 1,500 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber were not clearly presented in the table structure but mentioned as 56,750 tons. [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 16,100 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,905 US dollars/ton, down 15 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,895 US dollars/ton, down 15 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,930 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,880 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 12,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,900 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan. The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 145 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was - 905 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 13,280 yuan/ton, down 67 yuan; the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 625 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan. [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber was 60.3 Thai baht/kg, down 0.58 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber was 56.92 Thai baht/kg, up 0.27 Thai baht. The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber was 58 Thai baht/kg, down 0.2 Thai baht; the market reference price of cup rubber of Thai raw rubber was 52.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 138.6 US dollars/ton, up 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 12 US dollars/ton, down 12 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 168,800 tons, up 42,700 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 302,200 tons, up 45,800 tons. [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.52%, up 7.5 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 74.39%, up 8.5 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 46.1 days, up 1.48 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 47.92 days, up 0.56 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13,010,000 pieces, up 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58,310,000 pieces, up 6,630,000 pieces. [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 15.1%, down 0.03 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 14.15%, up 0.11 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 22.82%, down 0.28 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 22.84%, down 0.26 percentage points. [2] Industry News - In the first week of the future (January 18 - 24, 2026), the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared to the previous period. In most areas north of the equator and in some areas of western Malaysia and southern Indonesia, the rainfall was at a relatively low level, and the impact on rubber tapping work increased slightly. In areas south of the equator, the impact on rubber tapping work in most non - red areas decreased. - In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared to November 2025 and a year - on - year increase of about 13% compared to 84,200 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. In 2025, China's heavy - truck market ended with nearly 1.14 million vehicles. - As of January 18, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in the Qingdao area was 584,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,700 tons, an increase of 2.94%. The bonded area inventory was 99,500 tons, an increase of 6.42%; the general trade inventory was 485,400 tons, an increase of 2.26%. The inbound rate of the Qingdao natural rubber sample bonded warehouse increased by 0.85 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.05 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse increased by 0.72 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.55 percentage points. - As of January 15, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.53%, a month - on - month increase of 8.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.03 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.02%, a month - on - month increase of 7.52 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.21 percentage points. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall trend of rubber has been significantly affected by recent macro - sentiment fluctuations. With the implementation of macro - easing policies from the central bank and changes in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, geopolitical situations, and trade policies, the macro - sentiment has retreated, leading to a callback and differentiation in commodities [1][2]. - The price of Shanghai rubber RU is mainly determined by future demand, destocking expectations, and valuation, and is highly influenced by macro - sentiment. Overseas production areas are in the pre - low - season rush to increase production, with sufficient raw materials. High inventory from increased imports in December and downstream inventory pressure will suppress prices. The future trend of rubber prices is expected to fluctuate with sentiment and remain in a wide - range shock pattern [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Macro - sentiment fluctuations impact the rubber market. The implementation of China's central bank's easing policies and the weakening of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, along with geopolitical tensions and trade frictions, have led to a retreat in macro - sentiment and a callback in commodities [1]. - For RU, domestic suspension of tapping, destocking of whole latex, future demand, and valuation expectations are key factors, while being highly influenced by macro - sentiment. Overseas production areas are approaching the low - season, with sufficient raw materials and high inventory from imports suppressing prices. Downstream inventory pressure and uncertain domestic and foreign demand also affect prices [2]. 3.1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - **Price Range**: The short - term reference shock range for RU2605 is 15,500 - 16,200, with important pressure at 16,000 and support around 15,600. The shock range for NR2603 is 12,500 - 13,200, with important support at 12,600 [15]. - **Trend Judgment**: With stable pre - festival stocking demand downstream and a neutral - to - loose supply upstream, rubber prices are mainly affected by macro - sentiment and policy stimuli, and will mainly fluctuate in the future [15]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Adopt a neutral view on RU and NR, and be cautious at current price levels. Consider using hedging strategies such as protective options or spread strategies. Pay attention to the high - basis situation of RU and the low - spread expansion opportunity of NR - BR [16]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Suggestions - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high inventory, short - sell rubber futures (RU2605) to lock in sales profits, buy out - of - the - money put options (RU2605 - P15500), and sell call options (RU2605 - C16750) [29]. - **Procurement Management**: Enterprises with low inventory and future procurement plans can buy rubber far - month futures (NR2603 and subsequent contracts) to lock in procurement costs and buy out - of - the - money call options (RU2605 - C16250) [29]. 3.2 Important Information and Concerns 3.2.1 Last Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The central bank announced a series of policies to increase liquidity and stimulate the economy. Tire enterprise开工 rates increased, and vehicle sales showed growth in some segments. Cote d'Ivoire's natural rubber exports increased in 2025. There is a probability of an El Nino event in Q3 2026 [30][31]. - **Negative Information**: Geopolitical risks decreased, leading to a drop in oil prices and dragging down the chemical sector. The Fed may "pause rate cuts". South Korea's natural rubber imports decreased in 2025, and China's natural rubber social inventory increased. Rainfall in Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia decreased, increasing raw - material supply expectations [32][33][34]. 3.2.2 This Week's Focus - Monitor weather changes in production areas and the progress of tapping in high - latitude regions. Pay attention to the release of import and export data, port and social inventories, and the registration of whole - latex warehouse receipts. Track downstream tire pre - festival stocking and production - sales rhythms. Keep an eye on macro - sentiment and relevant economic data [35]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - **Unilateral Trend**: Last week, commodities continued to fluctuate and adjust, with rubber showing a relatively strong shock, reaching a high point before回调. RU performed relatively strongly [36]. - **Fund Trends**: The net short - position of Shanghai rubber increased, while the short - position of 20 - standard rubber decreased, and profits increased during the week [41]. 3.3.2 Spot Market and Spread Analysis - **Spot Price Changes**: The prices of some rubber varieties changed slightly, with some showing small increases or decreases [45][47]. - **Delivery - Product Price Trends**: The price trends of 20 - standard rubber delivery products are presented in relevant charts [49]. - **Term Structure Analysis**: The basis of whole latex is regressing, and the term structure of NR and the spread between different varieties and contracts show certain characteristics [50][58]. - **External Market Conditions**: The unilateral trends and term - spread structures of external markets such as Tocom RSS3 and Sicom 20 - standard rubber are presented, and the internal - external spreads between RU and Japanese rubber and NR and Singapore rubber are analyzed [63][65][67]. - **Virtual - to - Physical Ratio and Sentiment Indicators**: The virtual - to - physical ratio of rubber is higher than the historical average, and the bullish sentiment has declined, while the downstream tire sentiment has returned to neutral [74]. - **Variety Spread Analysis**: The spread between dark and light rubber has widened, and the spread between natural and synthetic rubber has narrowed. The reasons are related to supply - demand and inventory situations [78][92]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Industry Chain Profit Tracking - **Raw - Material Costs**: Domestic production areas have suspended tapping, and the price of Yunnan rubber blocks has remained stable. In Thailand, raw - material prices have increased slightly due to the end of the harvesting season and competition for procurement [96]. - **Processing Profits**: The processing profits of domestic and imported rubber have shown different trends, with some showing slight decreases [103][106]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply Side - **Main - Producing Country Output**: The global natural - rubber production in 2025 is expected to increase by 1.3%, with different growth rates in each country [108]. - **Domestic Import Situation**: China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) increased in 2025 [111]. 3.5.2 Demand Side - **Main - Producing Country Total Demand**: China's demand rebounded in November, and the total demand of most overseas main - producing countries also increased month - on - month [117]. - **Tire Production and Sales**: Tire enterprise开工 rates increased last week, mainly due to pre - festival stocking. Tire exports showed different trends in different segments, and the EU's anti - dumping investigation may affect future exports [119]. - **Replacement Demand**: The domestic logistics industry has been stable, but the slowdown in fixed - asset investment may suppress the growth of replacement demand [127][128]. - **Supporting Demand - Automobiles**: Domestic automobile sales have been strong, but the inventory pressure has increased. The export of new - energy vehicles and semi - trailers has been strong [131]. - **Supporting Demand - Heavy - Duty Trucks and Construction Machinery**: The sales of heavy - duty trucks and construction machinery have increased, but the long - term growth of demand may be limited by the slowdown in fixed - asset investment [134]. - **Overseas Tire Production**: The production of Japanese tires has been stable, and Thailand's tire shipment index has increased year - on - year [136]. - **Overseas Tire Demand**: US tire imports have increased despite weakening auto sales. European passenger - car production and sales have been stable [138]. - **Other Rubber Product Demand**: The PMI data in December showed an increase, and the开工 of other rubber downstream industries has further improved [144]. 3.5.3 Inventory Side - **Futures Inventory**: As of January 16, 2026, the rubber warehouse - receipt inventory increased by 0.52 million tons, and the 20 - standard rubber warehouse - receipt inventory decreased slightly by 0.02 million tons [146]. - **Social Inventory**: As of January 11, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased, with changes in the inventory and turnover rates of bonded and general - trade warehouses [148].

Group 1 - The rubber sector experienced a slight increase of 0.21% on January 19, with Fengmao Co., Ltd. leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4114.0, up 0.29%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14294.05, up 0.09% [1] - Key stocks in the rubber sector showed significant price increases, with Fengmao Co., Ltd. rising by 8.31% to a closing price of 50.45 [1] Group 2 - The rubber sector saw a net outflow of 116 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 151 million yuan [2] - The trading volume and turnover for key stocks in the rubber sector varied, with Kexin New Source recording a turnover of 9.31 billion yuan [1][2] - The net inflow from retail investors was notable for several stocks, including Kexin New Source, which had a retail net inflow of 1.21 million yuan [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Rubber Industry - Short - term rubber price drivers are limited, expected to range between 15,500 - 16,500 yuan/ton, with raw material prices providing support at the lower end and weak demand capping the upside. Follow - up attention should be paid to raw material output in Thailand [1]. Styrene Industry - For pure benzene, the weekly supply - demand situation has slightly improved, but the port inventory is still high, and the self - driving force is limited. For styrene, it is driven by exports, and the port inventory has decreased significantly. The short - term supply is tight, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival, and the upward space is limited. Strategically, be cautiously bearish on BZ2603, and look for opportunities to shrink the EB - BZ spread; also look for opportunities to short EB03 at high levels and shrink the EB processing fee [2]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - Soda ash: After a previous rise driven by macro - sentiment, it has fallen back. The spot price is basically flat, and the market sentiment is dull. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is weak. The inventory is at a high level and being adjusted. The futures price is expected to have limited rebound and continue to fluctuate weakly. - Glass: After a continuous decline, it rebounded due to improved macro - sentiment. The spot price has increased, and the basis has strengthened. However, the supply and demand are weak, and the inventory has decreased seasonally. The futures price is expected to have limited rebound and maintain a weak - fluctuating trend [3]. Crude Oil Industry - Short - term oil prices are affected by Middle East geopolitics, but the supply - demand expectation is weak. The inventory of US crude oil and refined oil has increased significantly. The rebound space of oil prices is limited, and Brent crude oil may fluctuate between $60 - 66 per barrel in the short term [4]. Polyolefin Industry - The polyolefin market is supported by rising raw material costs, but the profit first expands and then compresses. The static supply and demand both decline, and the inventory is being reduced. PP is short - term strong due to reduced supply pressure from maintenance, while PE is under pressure from reduced maintenance and import expectations. Overall, it is constrained by supply pressure and off - season demand, and the upward space may be limited [7]. LPG Industry - The prices of LPG futures contracts have declined, and the inventory and upstream - downstream operating rates have changed. No clear overall view is provided in the report [9]. Polyester Industry - PX: High supply and weak demand are expected in the first quarter, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level before the Spring Festival. In the medium - term, the supply in the second quarter is expected to be tight, and the downside space is limited. - PTA: The supply - demand situation is expected to weaken in January, with limited inventory accumulation in January but greater pressure in February. It mainly follows the raw material fluctuations. - MEG: There is a significant expectation of inventory accumulation in the near - term, and the price is under pressure in January. - Short - fiber: The overall supply - demand pattern is weak, and it follows the raw material fluctuations in the short term. - Polyester bottle - chips: The supply is expected to decline significantly in January, and the absolute price and processing fee are expected to follow the cost fluctuations [11]. Methanol Industry - The inland supply remains high, and traditional demand is weak. The port inventory has decreased slightly, but the MTO demand is weak, which limits the price rebound. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term, with support for the 05 contract, but an upward trend requires substantial improvement in demand [14][15]. Chlor - alkali Industry - Caustic soda: The spot price is weak, the supply is increasing slightly, the inventory is accumulating, and the price is expected to be bearish in the short term. - PVC: Affected by policies, the price fluctuates greatly. The fundamentals are under pressure, with stable supply growth, weak terminal demand, and inventory accumulation pressure, but the cost support is stable [16]. Urea Industry - The supply of urea is at a high level in the short term, and the demand is weak. However, there is an expectation of increased regional agricultural demand in the short term, and the inventory has decreased, which supports the price. The price is expected to be strong in the short term [17]. Summaries by Directory Rubber Industry Spot Prices and Basis - The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex (SCRWF) in Shanghai increased by 50 yuan/ton to 15,700 yuan/ton on January 16, with a daily increase of 0.32%. The whole - latex basis increased by 210 to - 135, with a daily increase of 60.87%. Monthly Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 570 to - 82, with a daily decrease of 670.59%; the 1 - 5 spread increased by 570 to 570, with a daily increase of 1036.36%. Fundamental Data - In November, the rubber production in Thailand, Indonesia, and India changed by - 9.39%, - 2.58%, and 2.20% respectively compared with the previous month. The production in China increased by 23.7 thousand tons. The weekly operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased. The domestic tire production in November increased by 3.96% compared with the previous month, and the tire export volume in December increased by 3.29% [1]. Styrene Industry Upstream Prices and Spreads - Brent crude oil (March) increased by $0.37 to $64.13 per barrel on January 16, with a daily increase of 0.6%. WTI crude oil (February) increased by $0.25 to $59.44 per barrel, with a daily increase of 0.4%. Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads - The spot price of styrene in East China increased by 80 yuan/ton to 7,310 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.1%. The EB02 - EB03 spread increased by 4 to - 53, with a daily increase of - 7.0%. Pure Benzene and Styrene Downstream Cash Flows and Inventory - The cash flows of some pure benzene and styrene downstream products have changed. The inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports increased by 0.6 million tons, and the inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports decreased by 3.17 million tons [2]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry Glass - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of glass 2605 increased by 17 yuan/ton to 1,103 yuan/ton on January 16, with a daily increase of 1.57%. The 05 basis decreased by 17 to - 83, with a daily decrease of - 25.76%. Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of soda ash 2605 decreased by 1 yuan/ton to 1,192 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of - 0.09%. The 05 basis increased by 1 to 28, with a daily increase of 1.75%. Supply and Inventory - The operating rate of soda ash increased by 5.93% compared with January 9, and the weekly output increased by 8.11%. The glass factory inventory decreased by 5.69%, and the soda ash factory inventory increased by 4.25% [3]. Crude Oil Industry Crude Oil Prices and Spreads - Brent crude oil increased by $0.37 to $64.13 per barrel on January 16, with a daily increase of 0.58%. WTI crude oil increased by $0.25 to $59.44 per barrel, with a daily increase of 0.42%. Refined Oil Prices and Spreads - NYM RBOB increased by 0.14 cents per gallon to 178.52 cents per gallon, with a daily increase of 0.08%. ICE Gasoil increased by $13 to $650.5 per ton, with a daily increase of 2.04%. Refined Oil Crack Spreads - The crack spreads of some refined oil products have changed, such as the US gasoline crack spread decreased by $0.19 to $15.54 per barrel, with a daily decrease of - 1.22% [4]. Polyolefin Industry Futures Prices and Spreads - The price of L2605 decreased by 119 yuan/ton to 6,814 yuan/ton on January 16, with a daily decrease of - 1.75%. The L59 spread decreased by 28 to - 28. Spot Prices and Basis - The spot price of East China PP拉丝 decreased by 70 yuan/ton to 6,350 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of - 1.09%. The North China LL basis decreased by 10 to - 90, with a daily decrease of - 12.50%. Upstream - Downstream Operating Rates and Inventory - The operating rate of PE devices decreased by 2.48%, and the operating rate of PP devices increased by 0.20%. The PE enterprise inventory decreased by 4.51 million tons, and the PP enterprise inventory decreased by 2.3 million tons [7]. LPG Industry LPG Prices and Spreads - The price of the main PG2602 decreased by 91 yuan/ton to 4,202 yuan/ton on January 16, with a daily decrease of - 2.12%. The PG02 - 03 spread increased by 5 to 65, with a daily increase of 8.33%. LPG Inventory and Upstream - Downstream Operating Rates - The LPG refinery storage capacity ratio decreased by 2.77%, and the LPG port inventory decreased by 10.4 million tons. The upstream - downstream operating rates have changed slightly [9]. Polyester Industry Upstream and Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows - The price of POY150/48 decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 6,690 yuan/ton on January 16, with a daily decrease of - 0.4%. The cash flow of POY150/48 decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 62 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of - 78.0%. PX - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of CFR China PX decreased by $2 to $879 per ton, with a daily decrease of - 0.2%. The PX - crude oil spread decreased by $2 to $411 per ton, with a daily decrease of - 1.1%. PTA, MEG - Related Prices and Inventory - The price of PTA East China spot decreased by 90 yuan/ton to 4,960 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of - 1.8%. The MEG port inventory increased by 7.7 million tons [11]. Methanol Industry Methanol Prices and Spreads - The price of MA2605 decreased by 34 yuan/ton to 2,239 yuan/ton on January 16, with a daily decrease of - 1.50%. The MA59 spread decreased by 10 to - 9, with a daily decrease of - 1000.00%. Methanol Inventory and Upstream - Downstream Operating Rates - The methanol enterprise inventory increased by 0.33 million tons, and the methanol port inventory decreased by 10.19 million tons. The upstream - downstream operating rates have changed, such as the downstream - outer - sourced MTO device operating rate decreased by 11.22% [14]. Chlor - alkali Industry PVC, Caustic Soda Spot and Futures - The price of East China calcium - carbide - based PVC decreased by 70 yuan/ton to 4,580 yuan/ton on January 16, with a daily decrease of - 1.5%. The SH2605 price decreased by 32 yuan/ton to 2,213 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of - 1.4%. Caustic Soda Overseas Quotes and Export Profits - The FOB East China port price of caustic soda remained unchanged at $350 per ton. The export profit decreased by 2.3 yuan/ton to 214.2 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of - 1.1%. PVC Overseas Quotes and Export Profits - The CFR Southeast Asia price of PVC increased by $20 to $630 per ton, with a daily increase of 3.3%. The export profit of FOB Tianjin Port calcium - carbide - based PVC increased by 102.6 yuan/ton to 5.9 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 106.1%. Supply, Demand, and Inventory - The operating rate of the caustic soda industry increased by 0.3%, and the operating rate of PVC increased by 0.3%. The inventory of liquid caustic soda in East China factories decreased by 0.8 million tons, and the PVC upstream factory inventory decreased by 1.7 million tons [16]. Urea Industry Futures Prices and Spreads - The price of the 05 contract decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,791 yuan/ton on January 16, with a daily decrease of - 0.56%. The 05 - 09 contract spread decreased by 1 to 28, with a daily decrease of - 3.45%. Spot Prices and Basis - The spot price of urea in Shandong (small particles) increased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,770 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.57%. The Shandong basis increased by 20 to 20, with a daily increase of 11.70%. Supply and Demand - The daily output of domestic urea increased by 0.03 million tons to 19.98 million tons on January 14, with a daily increase of 0.17%. The domestic urea factory inventory decreased by 3.61 million tons, and the port inventory decreased by 0.6 million tons [17].

Group 1 - The A-share market has shown a strong start in 2026, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index recording cumulative increases of over 3%, 5%, and 4% respectively as of last week [1] - The A500 ETF from Southern has risen by 0.62%, with notable component stocks such as Zhongce Rubber increasing by 5.44% and Xinyi Technology by 1.03% [1] - Institutional investors express optimism for the entire market in 2026, focusing on new productive forces and global competitive advantages, indicating a long-term bullish trend for A-shares [1] Group 2 - Investor sentiment has been highly active since the beginning of 2026, with the margin balance for margin trading continuing to rise, reflecting a policy signal aimed at guiding rational investment and maintaining market stability [2] - The central bank has implemented a series of measures, including lowering interest rates on various structural monetary policy tools, to support economic structural transformation and enhance market confidence [2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) emphasized a "stability first" approach during its 2026 work meeting, outlining five key tasks to solidify the foundation for a long-term bullish market, indicating that short-term fluctuations do not alter the long-term positive outlook [2]