据央视新闻报道，美国海关宣布按特朗普指示，对进口中国的电脑、智能手机等电子产品及零部件实施 关税豁免，全球市场为之震动。这一戏剧性反转，在美国国内掀起舆论狂潮，背后折射出的多重矛盾与 困境，远比表面的政策转变更为复杂。 美债危机更是悬在美国头顶的达摩克利斯之剑。当前美国国债规模高达36万亿美元，每天需偿还19亿美 元利息，每分钟烧掉132万美元。特朗普发动关税战，妄图逼迫各国购买美债以缓解债务危机，结果却 适得其反。10年期美债收益率飙升至5.2%，中国连续三年减持美债，全球央行纷纷增加黄金储备。美 国的这波操作，不仅没能缓解债务压力，反而加速了美元霸权根基的动摇。 政治层面，特朗普此举也是无奈之举。中期选举临近，62%的摇摆州选民将通胀归咎于关税政策，特朗 普在五大湖铁锈带的民调支持率直线下滑。为保住政治基本盘，他只能选择关税豁免，试图用这一举措 暂时安抚选民情绪，为自己的政治前途争取筹码。但这种战术性撤退，也让美国在国际舆论场陷入尴尬 境地，暴露了其对华政策的脆弱与摇摆。 反观中国，在这场博弈中始终保持战略定力。面对美国的关税挑衅，中国采取对等反制措施，同时在稀 土出口管制、WTO诉讼、产能全球化布局等多 ...

Economic Outlook - The Peterson Institute for International Economics warns that despite temporarily avoiding a technical recession, the U.S. economy is facing significant challenges due to a combination of tariffs, tightened immigration policies, and budget cuts, leading to a projected GDP growth drop from 2.5% in 2024 to 0.1% in 2025, with inflation expectations rising to 4.5% and unemployment potentially reaching 5% [1][4]. Tariff Impact - The report identifies recent tariff increases as the "core engine" of economic slowdown, with the tariff rate on imported goods reaching 28% in Q1 2025, a 15 percentage point increase from 2023, resulting in a 9.7% year-over-year rise in the consumer price index for imported goods [3][4]. - The hidden cost of tariffs is significant, with every $1 in tariff revenue costing consumers $1.20, affecting essential goods and leading to an 18% increase in raw material costs for manufacturers [3][4]. Labor Market and Immigration - The tightening of immigration policies is projected to reduce legal immigration quotas by 40% compared to 2023, leading to a 1.2 percentage point decline in labor force participation, impacting approximately 3 million jobs in retail and manufacturing [4][5]. - The labor shortage is expected to increase business costs and reduce potential consumer demand by $80 billion annually [4]. Government Budget Cuts - A 20% budget cut in government efficiency departments is causing delays in customs clearance and small business subsidy approvals, exacerbating challenges for the private sector [4][5]. - 38% of businesses have reportedly abandoned plans to expand into overseas markets due to government approval delays [4]. Consumer Spending and Inflation - Rising inflation is eroding wage growth, leading to a contraction in consumer spending, with core retail sales declining by 0.3% in March [5][6]. - The economic slowdown in the U.S. is expected to impact global markets, with emerging market export orders declining by 15% and a projected 0.8 percentage point reduction in growth for economies reliant on U.S. exports [5][6]. Federal Reserve Policy Challenges - The report warns that the Federal Reserve may face a "stagflation paradox," where high inflation and low growth limit policy options, potentially leading to a repeat of the 1970s scenario where interest rates were raised significantly to combat inflation at the cost of prolonged recession [8].

重要提示：本材料不构成任何形式的要约、承诺或其他法律文件，亦非任何投资、法律或财务等方面的专业建议。过往业绩不预示 未来表现。投资须谨慎。 关税是近期市场普遍关心的话题，我们整理了一些外资投行的观察视角，以供参考。 截至本文发布，美国总统特朗普表示，他正考虑对进口汽车和零部件关税实施临时豁免的可能性， 以便让汽车企业有更多时间在美国建立生产设施。 在此之前，特朗普称豁免电子产品关税只是一项 临时措施，这些产品将被即将实施的行业关税所覆盖。 局势正在以分钟级速度演变。 关税政策能重振美国的就业吗？ 有外资报告援引学术研究结果显示，特朗普关税政策或对美国就业存在负面影响。关税税率每提高10个 百分点，受保护行业的就业岗位将增加0.2-0.4%；而关税驱动成本每上升1个百分点，就业岗位会减少 0.3-0.6%。考虑美国的经济体量，意味着关税保护对制造业就业的提振作用不足10万个岗位，而由此带 来的成本压力对下游就业的拖累效应则高达约50万个岗位。 企业应对关税风险的五种常见策略 外资投行基于观察企业应对上一轮关税争端的经验，总结出面对关税风险企业通常可以采取的五种应对 策略。在最新的关税政策下，部分策略是否还能继续 ...

智通财经APP获悉，当地时间4月11日晚，美国海关与边境保护局宣布，联邦政府已同意对智能手机、 电脑、芯片等电子产品免除所谓"对等关税"。分析人士指出，该措施可能会在一定程度上缓解美国消费 者面临的涨价压力，同时让包括苹果(AAPL.US)、英伟达(NVDA.US)在内的科技巨头松了一口气。 同样重要的是对半导体制造设备的新豁免，包括阿斯麦(ASML.US)、日本东京电子(Tokyo Electron)等企 业生产的半导体制造设备。这些设备是建造芯片工厂的关键设备，构成了此类工厂数十亿美元造价的主 要部分。 投行Wedbush的分析师Daniel Ives在上周六的一份研报中表示："美国科技行业的声量很大。尽管白宫内 部最初强烈反对豁免，但最终认识到了现实情况。" 卢特尼克表示："这不是永久性的豁免。(特朗普)只是在澄清，这些不是各国可以通过谈判解决的。这 些都是事关国家安全的东西，我们需要在美国制造。"根据卢特尼克的说法，被排除在外的设备，如智 能手机、电脑以及其他电子产品，可能会被包括在特朗普即将对半导体征收的关税范围内。他还还强 调，对半导体征收关税是将这些电子产品的制造业带回美国的努力的一部分。 苹果 ...

一、市场震荡犹在：特朗普关税风波引爆，上周全球金融市场动荡加剧 回顾上周，全球金融市场仿佛置身"过山车"之中，受特朗普政府关税政策反复无常的影响，市场避险情 绪快速升温，引发美元、美债、美股三线共振下行。尽管上周后段出现短暂修复，但整体波动率依旧居 高不下。 美股方面，三大股指上演大幅震荡行情。标普500指数全周累计上涨5.7%，创下自去年11月以来最大单 周涨幅，纳指和道指亦分别录得7.29%和4.95%的显著反弹。然而，这轮反弹并未带来真正的乐观情 绪。自4月初特朗普突然宣布大范围征收"对等关税"以来，市场对全球贸易格局和经济前景的担忧始终 未退。 与此同时，避险资产成为资金避风港。黄金价格连续刷新历史新高，现货金价一度突破3245美元/盎 司，年内累计涨幅已超22%。美元指数则连续下挫，上周跌幅超过3%，失守百点大关，美债市场亦面 临"买家罢工"式的抛售压力，10年期美债收益率周涨幅创下20年来新高。 可以说，特朗普掀起的这场关税博弈，在上周已深刻扰动全球资产定价体系，为本周行情埋下更多不确 定因子。 二、政策路径更变：电子产品"豁免"风波，再引市场焦虑情绪 就在市场对政策走向高度紧张之际，上周末，特朗 ...

行情回顾： 国际黄金周五（4月11日）再度收涨，开盘价3158.03美元/盎司，最高价3244.28美元/盎司，最低价3151.53美元/ 盎司，收盘价3240.44美元/盎司。 消息面： 周五公布的美国4月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值录得50.8，低于市场预期54.5，前值为57；美国3月PPI年率 鹿的2.7%，低于市场预期3.3%，前值为3.2%；美国3月PPI月率录得-0.4%，低于市场预期0.2%，前值为 0.00%。 评论称，美国4月消费者信心急剧恶化，12个月通胀预期飙升至1981年以来最高水平，因贸易紧张局势升级令 人不安。消费者调查中心主任Joanne Hsu说："这种下降在各年龄、收入、教育、地理区域和政治派别中普遍存 在，而且是一致的。""消费者报告了多种警告信号，增加了经济衰退的风险：对商业状况、个人财务状况、收 入、通胀和劳动力市场的预期本月都继续恶化。" 美联储卡什卡利周五表示，最近的市场趋势显示，在特朗普的贸易战升级之际，投资者正在离开美国这个最安 全的投资地点。他表示，最近几天，随着美国国债收益率上升，美元兑全球货币贬值，趋势与你通常看到的相 反。"通常情况下，当你看到大幅提高 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has updated tariffs, exempting certain technology-related products from "reciprocal tariffs," which includes items like computers, communication devices, and semiconductors [1] - The exemption applies to products that meet specific classification numbers in the U.S. Harmonized Tariff Schedule, benefiting U.S. tech companies affected by previous tariffs [1] - Analyst Dan Ives from Wedbush emphasized that without these exemptions, the U.S. tech industry would regress significantly, impacting the progress of the AI revolution [1] Group 2 - The recent tariff updates are seen as a relief for the tech sector, with expectations for more details on exemptions to emerge soon [2] - Ives has been optimistic about U.S. tech stocks but expressed concerns due to the tariff situation, previously predicting a significant price increase for U.S.-made iPhones [2] - The White House's stance on tariffs and manufacturing in the U.S. has been criticized for underestimating the complexity of Asian supply chains that have supported the U.S. tech industry for decades [2]

中美之间的贸易战已经开打。2025年4月10日中午，美国方面宣布对中国的商品加征关税，直接加到84%！这么高的税率在历史上也是比较罕见。而在不到 24小时，我国也拿出了反制措施。商务部宣布：从现在起，所有从美国进口的商品，也同样加征84%的关税。 面对中美贸易战的不断升级，普通老百姓最关心的是，自己的收入是否会缩水，手里的房产会不会因此而波动？对此，我们认为，中美贸易战开打，对于老 百姓的收入和房子价格的影响是深远的，远超我们的日常感知。主要影响在以下几个方面。 第一，出口行业首当其冲 第二，老百姓的生活成本会增加 由于中美之间贸易战的开打， 国内部分进口商品的价格会上升。比如，电子产品、日用品等行业，都依赖于从美国进口原材料的价格可能会上涨。最终企 业原材料价格的上涨，会体现在这些商品的价格上面。 不仅如此，我国每年会从美国进口大豆、猪肉、高梁等农产品，而由于进口成本上升，这些农产品的价格也会同步上升。不出意外的话，部分商品的价格会 上涨，普通老百姓的生活成本会增加。 第三，对房价的影响是最直接的 从目前情况看，中美贸易战打响，对于长三角、珠三角的出口企业的影响是最大的。主要体现在美国加征关税之后，国内很多 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing global stock market turmoil as a systemic risk, emphasizing the need for individuals to adopt a more open mindset and focus on survival rather than profit in the face of economic challenges [3][7]. Group 1: Global Market and Economic Impact - The recent global stock market decline is characterized as a systemic risk, suggesting that individual concerns may be futile [7]. - The impact of Trump's policies is most significant on export-oriented industries, particularly electronics, pharmaceuticals, and apparel [7][14]. - The article suggests that if the global market declines uniformly, it may not be as alarming, as recovery could be simultaneous across countries [12]. Group 2: Strategic Recommendations for Individuals - Individuals are advised to shift from habitual thinking to an open mindset and from asset allocation to risk management [16]. - Key principles for individuals include prioritizing survival over profit, maintaining backup plans, being willing to retreat, and favoring savings over debt [16]. Group 3: Employment and Economic Stability - The article highlights that the fundamental issue is employment stability, which is crucial for national stability [25]. - It argues that advancements in hard technologies like artificial intelligence are not the ultimate solution for economic strength, as they may not necessarily create jobs [25]. Group 4: International Relations and Trade Strategy - The article suggests that the U.S.-China trade conflict presents an opportunity for China to strengthen ties with Europe while balancing its strategy against the U.S. [10][21]. - It emphasizes the importance of not completely severing ties with the U.S. but rather engaging in strategic partnerships to gain more leverage in global trade [21].

Group 1 - Indonesia will reduce the import tax on electronic products, mobile phones, and laptops from 2.5% to 0.5% [1] - The reduction in import tax applies to products from any country [1] - Indonesia's economic advisor mentioned discussions with the United States regarding cooperation on critical minerals as part of tariff negotiations [1]