证券研究报告 2025 年 8 月 28 日 星期四 【A 股市场大势研判】 大盘冲高回落，日成交额超 3 万亿 周三，市场全天冲高回落，日成交额超 3 万亿。早盘三大指数集体高开，随后市场 震荡上行，午后大盘跳水回落。截至收盘，三大指数集体收绿，上证指数领跌。盘面上， CPO 等算力硬件股维持强势，芯片股冲高回落，稀土永磁概念股表现活跃。下跌方面，地 产股展开调整。总体上个股跌多涨少，通信、电子、有色金属、公用事业和计算机等行业 表现靠前；美容护理、房地产、综合、建筑材料和纺织服饰等行业表现靠后。概念指数方 面，F5G 概念、共封装光学(CPO)、稀土永磁、智能音箱和 WiFi6 等板块表现靠前；钛白 粉概念、兵装重组概念、天津自贸区、太赫兹和基因测序等板块表现靠后。 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3800.35 | -1.76% | -68.03 | | | 深证成指 | 12295.07 | -1.43% | -178.10 | | | 沪深 300 | 4386.1 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market opened mixed, with major indices experiencing a pullback in the afternoon, leading to an overall increase in trading volume. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.76%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 1.43%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.69%. The total market turnover was approximately 3.20 trillion yuan, with 4,761 stocks declining [3][9]. Sector Performance - In terms of sector performance on August 27, 2025, the telecommunications sector rose by 1.42%, while real estate (-3.47%), insurance (-2.97%), and environmental protection (-2.86%) sectors led the declines. Notable concept stocks included optical modules (+2.58%), rare earths (+2.21%), and optical communications (+1.95%), while the smallest market capitalization stocks (-4.42%) and digital currency (-4.05%) faced significant declines [9]. Market Drivers - The A-share market's volatility increased due to profit-taking and weakness in heavyweight stocks, causing major indices to decline. The State Council's issuance of opinions on the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative has continued to support the AI industry chain, with stocks related to optical modules, optical communications, and computing hardware leading the gains. Additionally, rare earth issues have resurfaced as a focus of tariffs, with domestic rare earth stocks performing well due to better-than-expected earnings from leading companies [9]. Future Outlook - The report maintains a bullish outlook on the Chinese stock market, suggesting that monetary and fiscal support policies may still be forthcoming. Historical experiences indicate that domestic policy interventions can help the stock market withstand external risks and volatility. The report anticipates a bullish market trend, drawing parallels to bull markets in 1999, 2014, and 2019 [9]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on non-bank sectors that align with a "slow bull" market, particularly in technology growth areas such as AI computing, Hong Kong innovative pharmaceuticals, and military industries. It also recommends paying attention to sectors benefiting from improved supply-demand dynamics, including metals, transportation, chemicals, lithium batteries, photovoltaics, and pig farming [9].

Economic Indicators - In July, the profits of high-tech manufacturing increased by 18.9%, reversing a 0.9% decline in June, significantly contributing to the overall profit growth of industrial enterprises [1] - The profits of industrial enterprises above designated size fell by 1.5% year-on-year in July, but the decline narrowed by 2.8 percentage points compared to June [1] Company News - Macro Technology reported a revenue of 550 million yuan for the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 35%, with net profit rising by 10587.74% to 87.3751 million yuan [4] - Deep Property A achieved a revenue of 637 million yuan, up 374.85% year-on-year, with net profit increasing by 1732.32% to 103 million yuan [4] - Huaxi Securities reported a revenue of 2.073 billion yuan, a 46.72% increase year-on-year, with net profit rising by 1195.02% to 512 million yuan [5] - Mairui Medical's revenue decreased by 18.45% to 16.743 billion yuan, with net profit down 32.96% to 5.069 billion yuan, proposing a cash dividend of 13.10 yuan per 10 shares [5] - Baosteel's revenue was 151.372 billion yuan, down 7.28% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 7.36% to 4.879 billion yuan, with a proposed cash dividend of 0.12 yuan per share [5] Strategic Developments - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced plans to establish new satellite communication businesses and expand access for private enterprises [1] - Shanghai government released implementation opinions to accelerate the renovation of urban villages, focusing on areas with urgent public needs and safety concerns [2] - Jilin Province will implement a tax refund policy for overseas travelers starting September 1 [3] Investment Opportunities - Huayu Automotive plans to acquire a 49% stake in Shanghai SAIC Qingtao Energy Technology Co., marking its entry into the solid-state battery sector [6] - Debang Lighting intends to gain control of Zhejiang Jiali Industrial Co., a well-known automotive lighting manufacturer, through a cash acquisition [6] - Guanghe Technology announced plans to invest approximately 2.6 billion yuan in a cloud manufacturing base project [7] - China General Nuclear Power Group plans to acquire multiple nuclear power companies for a total price of 9.375 billion yuan [7] Industry Insights - CICC's report highlights the transformative impact of drones in agriculture, suggesting investment opportunities in the integration of low-altitude economy and agricultural technology [8] - CITIC Securities anticipates a recovery in the white liquor industry, with a potential bottoming out in the third quarter of this year, presenting a favorable investment outlook [8]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market has shown a pessimistic trend in recent months, with market confidence declining again after a brief recovery period. The expectation is that housing prices will continue to fall, despite previous government measures aimed at stabilizing the market [4][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - The real estate market has entered a downward trend since April, with both transaction volume and sales revenue declining, and the extent of price drops widening. This adjustment has lasted for four months, raising concerns about the market's stability [5]. - The government had previously implemented significant stimulus measures to promote market recovery, which initially had a positive effect, but the situation has deteriorated again, impacting market confidence [4]. Group 2: Government Response - The current year is critical for achieving stabilization in the real estate market, with the government emphasizing the need for effective measures to halt the decline. Recent statements from high-level officials indicate a commitment to reinforcing the market's stabilization efforts [5]. - Major cities like Beijing and Shanghai have introduced new policies to support the real estate market, with expectations that similar measures will soon follow in Shenzhen and Guangzhou. However, there are concerns about the effectiveness of these policies in reversing the current downward trend [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Jerome Powell's acknowledgment of tariffs not exacerbating inflation opens the door for potential interest rate cuts in September [1][2][9] - Powell's realization reflects a historical misunderstanding of Trump's economic policies, which have previously led to strong economic growth and price stability [2][3] - The market reacted positively, with the Dow Jones index surpassing 45,000 points, indicating expectations of a rate cut [2] Group 2 - The current high interest rates in the U.S. are significantly out of sync with global rates, creating challenges for U.S. exporters and small businesses [3][4][6] - The average fixed mortgage rate remains between 6-7%, which is double pre-pandemic levels, hindering housing market recovery [4] - The U.S. faces a tightening monetary policy that is seen as excessive, with real interest rates at their highest in nearly two decades [7][9] Group 3 - Powell's defense of maintaining high rates to stabilize inflation expectations is viewed as an overreaction to concerns about tariff-driven inflation [8][9] - A more aggressive rate cut of up to 100 basis points is suggested to align U.S. rates with global standards and alleviate pressure on households and exporters [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the forum is that the current market exhibits a "high growth narrative," where industries with high growth potential are performing exceptionally well [2][3] - The macroeconomic factors driving the recent recovery in equity assets include narrow liquidity easing and the appreciation of the RMB against the USD, with the central bank having implemented two reserve requirement ratio cuts since September 2024 [2][3] - The market has shown a significant increase, with the Wind Micro Index rising over 56% year-to-date, outperforming major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index [4] Group 2 - The market trend continues to favor small-cap stocks, reflecting a diverse industrial landscape [5] - The outlook for the A-share market is optimistic, with limited downside risks due to central bank support and increasing insurance fund allocations [5] - Investment opportunities are concentrated in four key areas: non-bank financials, A-share and Hong Kong real estate chains, overseas computing power chains and innovative pharmaceuticals, as well as domestic AI infrastructure and applications [5]

Core Points - Mozambique government signed a strategic cooperation agreement worth $20 billion with Qatar-based Al Mansour Holding to promote development in key economic and social sectors [1] - The agreement covers multiple sectors including agriculture, livestock, fisheries, oil and gas, renewable energy, infrastructure, logistics, social housing, and healthcare [1] - Investments will also be made in tourism and social sectors, including the construction of schools, hotels, resorts, and sustainable coastal projects [1] Group 1 - The agreement emphasizes the partnership spirit and historical significance of cooperation between Mozambique and Qatar [1] - Sheikh Mansour Bin Jabor Bin Jassim Al Thani highlighted the importance of transforming natural resources and talent into development engines for future generations [1] - The focus of the development is on creating jobs, empowering youth, and enhancing community cohesion rather than short-term profits [1] Group 2 - The collaboration is framed as a community effort, calling for Africa and the Middle East to work together towards innovation and shared prosperity [1]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a significant decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 1.76% to 3800.35 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index falling by 1.43% [3][10] - A total of 4,764 stocks closed lower, indicating a clear money-losing effect in the market, while only 633 stocks managed to rise [3][10] - The trading volume increased to 3.2 trillion yuan, marking a substantial level of market activity [2][3] Sector Performance - The real estate sector was among the hardest hit, with a decline of 3.51%, while the communication sector was the only one to gain, rising by 1.66% [5][7] - Over 20 sectors saw declines exceeding 2%, with notable drops in beauty care, comprehensive, and construction materials sectors, all falling over 3% [6][7] Investor Sentiment - Analysts suggest that the recent market surge has led to significant profit-taking, resulting in a necessary correction [10][14] - Investors are advised to maintain a steady mindset and avoid chasing hot stocks blindly, focusing instead on sectors with policy support and strong performance [12][14] Future Outlook - Despite the current downturn, there is optimism for a rebound once the market adjusts, with potential opportunities for investors to buy on dips [12][14] - Key sectors to watch include semiconductors, non-bank financials, robotics, and innovative pharmaceuticals, which are expected to benefit from strategic policy support and economic transformation [14][15]

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors for analysis

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The relative value advantage of the domestic stock market over bonds has declined but remains relatively high compared to historical levels. Strategically, investors can continue to rely on the negative correlation between stocks and bonds for portfolio allocation, and tactically, the dynamic weight allocation still favors overweighting stocks [1][2][8]. - Since August, the increase in Hong Kong stocks has significantly lagged behind that of A - shares, possibly due to liquidity differences. There may be potential catch - up opportunities for Hong Kong stocks when the Fed turns dovish, and the indicative significance of the AH premium may be weakened [2][19]. - Globally, A - share valuations are still relatively low and may have significant room for improvement from perspectives such as the stock market capitalization/GDP ratio [2][27]. - In the US stock market, during the interest - rate cut cycle, small - and medium - cap and cyclical sectors, which are more sensitive to interest rates, may perform relatively well in the short term, while leading technology stocks with strong earnings may remain the long - term main theme [1][2][33]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Condition Assessment - Domestic: New and second - hand housing transactions have marginally stabilized, export throughput has maintained resilience, and price trends are differentiated. The central bank has continuously supported the liquidity, and the Fed's expected interest - rate cut provides room for subsequent incremental monetary policies. Fiscal policy may see a window of opportunity around the junction of the third and fourth quarters. Real estate policies continue to boost demand [3][45][47]. - Overseas: The US economy has maintained resilience. Powell's dovish speech signaled a possible interest - rate cut in September. The US 8 - month Markit composite PMI reached a 9 - month high [46]. Configuration Suggestions - **Large - scale assets**: The Fed's dovish stance steepens the US Treasury yield curve, benefiting global cyclical assets. It is advisable to use gold as a defensive position. A - shares are expected to be active in the short term and re - evaluated in the long term. The US Treasury yield curve is more likely to steepen, and short - end operations have higher certainty. The volatility of US stocks may increase in the short term, and it is recommended to hedge risks. Commodity sentiment has generally improved [4][39]. - **Domestic bond market**: The current bond market has weak coupon protection, high speculation, and strong sentiment - driven characteristics. Interest rates are likely to have an upper limit. It is recommended to look for opportunities after October and focus on curve steepening transactions. Avoid some volatile bond varieties [39]. - **Domestic stock market**: Near - term events may disrupt the market, but the overall environment remains favorable. Investors are advised to focus on the "hard technology" theme and explore "anti - involution" sub - themes. Increase trading flexibility if certain signals appear [40]. - **US Treasury bonds**: The market's expectation of an interest - rate cut has increased. It is expected that there will be at least two interest - rate cuts this year. Short - term trading may revolve around interest - rate cut expectations, and long - term, the probability of a steepening yield curve is higher. Band trading is recommended, with higher certainty at the short end [41]. - **US stocks**: After the Fed turns dovish, cyclical sectors may perform well in the short term, but there may be回调 risks. Technology stocks may remain the long - term main theme. It is recommended to hedge risks and wait for opportunities after Nvidia's earnings report [41]. - **Commodities**: The expectation of interest - rate cuts and the weakening of the US dollar have warmed commodity sentiment. Mineral stocks may have greater elasticity. Gold is expected to be strong, oil prices have bottomed out but are bearish in the long term, and copper prices may fluctuate in the short term [44]. Follow - up Concerns - **Domestic**: China's official and S&P Global manufacturing PMI for August, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Tianjin Summit [61]. - **Overseas**: The US second - quarter real GDP annualized quarterly rate revision, July existing home sales index monthly rate, July core PCE price index annual and monthly rates, and other economic data from the US, Eurozone, UK, and Japan [61].