根据《从结构化视角全新打造市场情绪择时模型》文中提到的构建思路，目前我们用于构建市场情绪结构指标所用到 的细分指标如下表。 在指标合成方法上，模型采用打分的方式，根据每个分项指标所提示的情绪方向和所处布林轨道位置计算各指标分 数，指标分数可分为（-1，0，1）三种情况，最终对各个指标分数等权求和。最终的情绪结构指标为求和后分数的20 日均线，如图1所示，指标整体围绕0轴在[-6,6]的范围内上下波动，近5年A股市场情绪波动较大，其中2023年大部分 时间指标都处于较低位置，直至2024年10月市场情绪得分突破2。 市场情绪在3月的第3个交易日向上突破2，此后市场情绪整体保持向上抬升，但速度有一定减缓，近两周整体波动下 降。截至2025/3/28，市场情绪结构指标数值为1.6，数值较上周五(3/21)下降0.6，模型对下周市场发出偏空信号。 1. 情绪模型观点：资金情绪连续两周下行，择时短期继续偏空 1.1 从分项指标出发：市场缩量，价量一致性和期权波动率共同提 示情绪负向信号 下表展示了3月以来的情绪结构各分项指标的分数情况。 本周A股市场继续提示市场情绪下行，其中交易方向向价值 防御板块偏移（行业间交易波动 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The industry has entered the annual report performance disclosure period, with a focus on companies showing strong fundamentals and marginal improvements [2] - Notable performances include: - Shangmei Co. achieved revenue of 6.793 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62.1%, and a net profit of 803 million yuan, up 74% [2] - Aimeike reported revenue of 3.026 billion yuan, a 5.45% increase, and a net profit of 1.958 billion yuan, up 5.33% [2] - Mingchuang Youpin Group's revenue reached 17 billion yuan, a 22.8% increase, with overseas revenue growing by 42% to 6.68 billion yuan [2] - Huazhu Group's Q4 revenue was 6.023 billion yuan, a 7.8% increase, with plans to open 2,300 hotels in 2025 [2] Market Performance - For the week of March 17-21, 2025, the performance of the retail and beauty care sectors was as follows: - Shenwan retail sector down 4.03%, social services down 1.18%, and beauty care down 4.06% [11] - The overall market indices also declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.60% and the Shenzhen Component Index down 2.65% [11][14] - Sub-sectors such as professional chains, trade, and personal care products experienced significant declines, with drops of 7.86%, 4.78%, and 4.55% respectively [13] Key Events and Announcements - The report highlights several key events: - Chaohongji successfully held a spring new product ordering meeting, showcasing various new series that attracted strong interest from franchisees [23] - Betaini invested in the body care brand "Yujian," acquiring a 15.79% stake [22] - Yonghui Supermarket announced plans to close 250-350 stores as part of its reform strategy [22]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced volatility with a collective decline in major indices, while sectors like electricity, precious metals, and banks showed resilience. The article discusses the impact of external factors, particularly the situation in Turkey and the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision, on the A-share market outlook [1][2][7]. Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market saw a rollercoaster day, with afternoon fluctuations leading to a return to initial levels, and trading volume fell below 1.5 trillion yuan [1]. - Sectors such as electricity, precious metals, and banks rose against the trend, while gaming and automotive sectors faced corrections [1]. Group 2: External Influences - Turkey's stock market faced a significant drop, with the BIST-100 index falling by 6.87%, triggering a circuit breaker, and the Turkish lira depreciating over 10% against the US dollar, marking a historical low [3][4]. - Political turmoil in Turkey, particularly the arrest of a political opponent, has heightened market fears, impacting investor sentiment [5][6]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve is set to announce its interest rate decision, with expectations that rates may remain unchanged, but adjustments to inflation and economic growth forecasts are closely watched [7]. - Market analysts predict that the Fed may lower rates at least twice in 2025, with some anticipating three cuts, which could influence A-share market sentiment [7]. Group 4: Foreign Investment Trends - Despite recent market adjustments, foreign capital continues to flow into A-shares, with foreign institutions increasing their holdings [8][9]. - Morgan Stanley notes that foreign ownership of Chinese stocks is still below the peaks seen in 2020 and 2021, indicating significant room for growth [10]. Group 5: Sector Opportunities - The TMT (Technology, Media, Telecommunications) sector is expected to be a key theme for the year, with macroeconomic conditions resembling those of 2013 and 2019, which were favorable for high-growth themes [12]. - Consumer and cyclical sectors are anticipated to experience a rebound, with a focus on fundamental performance as the year progresses [14]. - Industries with improving profit expectations, such as small metals, new materials, and passenger vehicles, are likely to see higher gains in April [15].

Macro Economic Insights - The economic impact of fertility subsidies is significant, with potential annual consumption increase of 0.22%-0.25% and GDP uplift of 0.08%-0.09% from 2025 to 2029 if the subsidy scheme is widely adopted [6][7][10] - Industrial production remains strong, with a slight decline but still maintaining a high growth rate, while service sector growth has slowed [8][9] Retail Industry - In January-February 2025, the total retail sales reached 83,731 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.0%, indicating a mild recovery in consumption [26][27] - Online retail sales grew by 7.3%, with physical goods online sales accounting for 22.3% of total retail sales [28] - Investment recommendations focus on high-quality brands in sectors like traditional retail, gold and jewelry, cosmetics, and medical aesthetics [29] Real Estate Sector - In January-February 2025, the sales area of commercial housing decreased by 5.1% year-on-year, but the decline is narrowing compared to previous years [31][32] - New housing starts are down by 29.6% year-on-year, indicating ongoing challenges in the market [32][33] - Investment suggestions include strong credit real estate companies and those benefiting from both residential and commercial property recovery [34] Food and Beverage Sector - Online sales of liquor increased by 32.2% in February 2025, with a notable rise in the concentration of leading brands [35][36] - The snack food sector saw a decline in online sales, but there is still potential for growth in the overall market [39] - Investment focus is on liquor companies with strong fundamentals and market share potential, as well as the snack food sector's growth prospects [39] Technology and Automotive Sector - The smart driving business of the company is experiencing rapid growth, with a compound annual growth rate of 42.38% from 2021 to 2024 [50][51] - The company has successfully expanded its overseas market presence, securing significant orders from well-known international brands [52]

金融工程 | 金工定期报告 金融工程 证券研究报告 在当前市场中，分析师报告数量众多，以行业报告为例，每周通常有超过 500 篇的报告。而阅读这些报告通常要花费大量的时间和成本。针对这一 需求，我们利用 DeepSeek-V3 大模型的总结能力对分析师行业报告进行智 能总结和整合，提炼出核心观点和关键信息。 利用大模型衡量景气度 行业研究报告通常提供分析师对行业趋势的深入分析与总体评价，但其应 用性较弱，主要有两个原因。首先，行业评级是行业研报中的标准化输出， 但其并非连续指标，通常仅分为三类，缺乏足够的区分度。因此，分析师 细微的态度和用词变化可能不会导致行业评级的调整。其次，不同证券公 司采用的行业分类标准并不一致，这些差异使得行业比较变得困难。 大模型普及之前，并不容易解决这些问题，而大模型的应用可能为此提供 更有效的支持。为了深入挖掘行业研报的信息，我们对其进行了进一步的 整理与标准化。我们构造了一个能够提取行业研报所涉具体中信一级、二 级行业名称以及对应行业景气度的提示词，并使用 DeepSeek-V3 模型，将 研报摘要作为输入文本得到该研报所属行业、景气度等指标结果。 最新行业研报文本景气度 我 ...

大消费 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 3 月 17 日 [T分析师able_A：uthor 罗鹏 ] 执业证书号：S1030523040001 电话：0755-23602217 邮箱：luopeng@csco.com.cn 研究助理：赵靖 电话：0755-23602217 邮箱：zhaojing2@csco.com.cn 公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 证券研究报告 呼和浩特育儿补贴政策率先落地 [Table_ReportType] 大消费行业周报（3 月第 2 周） [Table_Summary] 行业观点： 风险提示：行业复苏及出生率不及预期、宏观经济增长放缓等风 险。 请务必阅读文后重要声明及免责条款 [Table_Industry] [Table_Title] [Table_Report] [Table_BaseData] 图表目录 | Figure 1 | 申万一级行业周度涨跌幅 | 3 | | --- | --- | --- | | Figure 2 | 消费二级子行业周度涨跌幅 | 3 | | Figure 3 | 消费各行业周度涨幅前五个股 | 4 | | Figure 4 ...

2025 年 03 月 16 日 上期推荐三个行业涨幅前五，继续关注资金流长 短景气和反转 —行业和风格因子跟踪报告 投资要点 ▌ 行业因子最新变动情况 上周推荐的食品饮料、有色金属、纺织服装涨幅居全行业 前 5。 行业因子上周最大特征单一大类因子解释力度不佳，因为 单大类因子选择的部分行业跌幅过深。本周高低切换明 显，反转类因子有效，复合因子层面短期景气预期有效性 显著。因子多头短期预期营收调升比例均值同比上周表现 最好。主力资金因子未能排入前列但多头超额继续创下新 高。 整体看行业轮动因子描述市场开始积极定价一季报，资金 高切低时有分歧，分歧可能源自博弈上周政策，最终博弈 结果来看消费>顺周期>地产链。景气预期层面继续关注长 短预期。我们推荐长期景气 30%、短期景气 20%权重突出 多头选择，给主力资金 30%权重，长端反转因子 20%来筛 选当前政策刺激下的受益板块。 月频流动性角度三月最强势的复合因子是短周期预期和部 分财报质量因子。选择的是消费中的食品饮料和社服、军 工和顺周期中的钢铁、有色，以及纺织服装。 ▌ 定量行业推荐 基于权重分配，我们推荐内资主力资金因子为代表的资金流 （30%）、细分因 ...

摘要 1、今天，A股三大指数迎来分化，有超4000只个股上涨，半导体、军工等板块涨幅居前。 2、两大重磅来袭，一是两会开幕，二是对于美国加征关税，中方反制。影响几何？ 3、复盘历史，两会召开期间和召开后，哪些板块上涨概率更大？如何借道基金布局？两会押宝指南来了！ 真话白话说财经，理财不说违心话 --这是第1309 篇白话财经- - 创业板：说好的兄弟同心呢？ 沪指、深成指：别慌，我们带着4000只个股冲锋呢！ （图片来源：东方财富APP，统计截至2025/3/4，不作投资推荐） （注： T均为交易日。 图片来源：华金证券研究所《今年两会值得关注的方向有哪些？》，发布时间：2025/3/3，不作投资推荐） 从今天的行情来看，也确实是小盘股更胜一筹。中证1000、国证2000等指数涨超1%。 | < = | 沪深京指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 最新_ | 涨幅↓ | 涨跌 | | 北证50 | 1379.97 | 3.24% | 43.27 | | 899050 | | | | | 创业小盘 399020 | 1542.07 1.96% | | 29.61 | ...

A股复盘 | 雪王与小米 / 2025.02.27 今天小米巨震，哈哈哈，上午涨4%，最高58.7港元，忽然掉头直下，最高跌8%，最低51.4 港元。 看了财联社一个分析（自己懒得查），近一个月以来，港股小米集团净买入席位最高的是汇 丰银行、其次则是花旗银行，期间两家合计净买入超2亿股，主导买盘力量。 而以港股通为首的内资则是减持居多，沪港通、深港通近一月累计卖出小米集团约5250万 股。这也意味着在小米股价高歌猛进的背后，外资更有可能是本轮行情的主要推手。 截至今日，港股空头对小米集团仍有高达3.49亿股的未平仓股数，以近一个月的均价测算， 存量沽空金额超百亿港元，并且还在被小米不断走高的股价逼空。 这个是不是叫轧空？ | 维度 | 轧空 (Short Squeeze) | 通空 (Bear Squeeze) | | --- | --- | --- | | 触发条 | 空头头寸过度集中,股价超预期上涨 | 市场流动性枯竭,多头持续拉抬价格 | | 件 | | | | 主导力 | 被动型:空头止损引发连锁反应 | 主动型:机构多头蓄意制造价格压力 | | 물 | | | | 价格渡 | 短期副烈反弹(如Gam ...

作者 | RAYYYY 编辑 | 小白 随着公募基金2024年四季报进入密集披露期，顶流基金经理的调仓路径和投资思路也浮出水面。 Choice数据显示，四季报期间，上证指数上涨0.4%，沪深300指数下跌2.1%，创业板指数下跌1.5%， 恒生指数下跌5.1%，恒生中国企业指数下跌2.9%。 在四季度，股市整体呈现抗压态势，多头与空头交锋激烈，振幅较大，以上证指数为例，整体振幅高 达15.6%。 （来源：Choice数据） 因此风云君认为本次四季报中的业绩展示和调仓路径更能展示基金经理们的抗压能力及盈利思路，也 是其综合能力的体现。 接下来将对张坤、傅鹏博、李晓星等顶流基金经理的四季报进行研究。 管理规模继续缩水。 张坤：尝试在新领域中捕获盈利 1月21日，顶流基金经理张坤掌管的易方达蓝筹精选混合（005827.OF）、易方达优质企业三年持有 （009342.OF）、易方达优质精选混合（QDII）（110011.OF）、易方达亚洲精选股票（QDII）（118 001.OF）四只基金披露了2024年四季报。 从基金收益看，张坤掌管的4只基金在2024年四季度没有实现正收益，基金份额净值增长率从-6.6% 到-9 ...