2025年06月10日 期货研究 商 品 研 究 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：非农小幅超预期 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：技术突破 | 3 | | 铜：伦铜现货走强，支撑价格 | 5 | | 铝：横盘震荡 | 7 | | 氧化铝：继续下行 | 7 | | 锌：社库累库，价格承压下行 | 9 | | 铅：短期供需双弱，中期偏多 | 10 | | 锡：止跌回升 | 11 | | 镍：现实支撑与弱势预期博弈，镍价震荡运行 | 13 | | 不锈钢：负反馈传导减产增加，钢价区间震荡 | 13 | | 碳酸锂：矿价企稳，偏弱震荡延续 | 15 | | 工业硅：上行空间有限，以逢高空配为主 | 17 | | 多晶硅：盘面以空配为主 | 17 | | 铁矿石：震荡反复 | 19 | | 螺纹钢：需求预期走弱，低位震荡 | 20 | | 热轧卷板：需求预期走弱，低位震荡 | 20 | | 硅铁：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 锰硅：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 动力煤：需求仍待释放，宽幅震荡 | 26 | | 原木：震荡反 ...

数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本 报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得 以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞 达 研 究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改 。 焦煤焦炭产业日报 2025/6/9 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | JM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 780.00 | +1.50↑ | J主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1339.00 | -11.50↓ | | 期货市场 | JM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 681951.00 | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Steel Industry - Current steel prices are affected by the rebound of coking coal. Steel mills are reducing production, hot-rolled coil inventory is increasing, and apparent demand is declining. Overall demand is expected to remain weak due to off - season demand and tariff - affected exports. Steel prices may fluctuate at low levels. It is recommended to look for opportunities to short on rebounds, with attention to short - selling opportunities around 3000 for the October contract of rebar and 3150 for the October contract of hot - rolled coil [1]. Iron Ore Industry - This week, global iron ore shipments increased significantly, demand remained relatively stable, and the inventory continued to decline but at a slower pace. In the future, terminal demand for finished products may weaken, but iron ore demand is expected to remain resilient. Iron ore supply pressure will increase. It is expected that iron ore prices will fluctuate in the range of 700 - 745 [3]. Coking Coal and Coke Industry - Coking coal futures showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend last week, with a divergence between futures and spot prices. The spot market of coking coal was weak, and the market was still in a state of oversupply. Coke futures also showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, and the third round of price cuts for coke was implemented on June 6. The supply - demand pattern of coke was still loose in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for the 2509 contracts of both coking coal and coke and short after the rebound [5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - For ferrosilicon, supply increased this week, mainly due to the resumption of production in Ningxia and Shaanxi. Demand remained relatively stable, and the supply - demand contradiction began to emerge as supply increased. For ferromanganese, supply increased slightly this week, and supply pressure reappeared under weak demand. It is recommended to wait and see for both, with attention to the price changes of coal [7]. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts all showed small increases. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China rose from 3100 to 3120 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract price of rebar rose from 2952 to 2975 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 2880 yuan/ton, while slab prices remained unchanged at 3730 yuan/ton. Profits of hot - rolled coil in different regions increased, and profits of rebar also showed different degrees of increase [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average pig iron output decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8, a decrease of 0.0%. The output of five major steel products decreased by 0.5 to 880.4, a decrease of 0.1%. Rebar production decreased by 7.0 to 218.5, a decrease of 3.1%; hot - rolled coil production increased by 9.2 to 328.8, an increase of 2.9%. The inventory of five major steel products decreased slightly, rebar inventory decreased, and hot - rolled coil inventory increased [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 0.5 to 10.4, an increase of 4.9%. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 31.6 to 882.2, a decrease of 3.5%. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 19.7 to 229.0, a decrease of 7.9% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Price and Spread - The basis of different iron ore varieties for the 09 contract decreased significantly. For example, the basis of PB powder for the 09 contract decreased from 122.4 to 63.6, a decrease of 48.0%. The 5 - 9 spread decreased slightly, and the 1 - 5 spread increased slightly [3]. Supply and Demand - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 385.2 to 2536.5, an increase of 17.9%. The monthly national import volume increased by 917.5 to 10313.8, an increase of 9.8%. The weekly average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8, a decrease of 0.0%. The monthly national pig iron output decreased by 271.1 to 7258.3, a decrease of 3.6% [3]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 39.9 to 13826.69, a decrease of 0.3%. The inventory of imported ore in 247 steel mills decreased by 64.1 to 8690.2, a decrease of 0.7% [3]. Coking Coal and Coke Industry Price and Spread - For coking coal, the price of the 09 contract rose by 22 to 779, an increase of 2.8%, and the price of the 01 contract rose by 20 to 793, an increase of 2.5%. For coke, the price of the 09 contract rose by 15 to 1357, an increase of 0.6%, and the price of the 01 contract rose by 10 to 1368, an increase of 0.7% [5]. Supply and Demand - The weekly output of coke decreased slightly, and the daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.3 to 66.5, a decrease of 0.4%. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8, a decrease of 0.0% [5]. Inventory - The inventory of coke in all - sample coking plants increased by 15.6 to 127.0, an increase of 14.04%, and the inventory of coke in 247 steel mills decreased by 9.1 to 645.8, a decrease of 1.4% [5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Price and Spread - The closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract decreased by 92 to 5104, a decrease of 1.8%, and the closing price of the ferromanganese main contract increased by 56 to 5538, an increase of 1.0% [7]. Cost and Profit - The production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia remained unchanged at 5631.0. The production profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia decreased by 50 to - 329.0, a decrease of 17.9% [7]. Supply and Demand - The weekly output of ferrosilicon increased by 1.2 to 9.7, an increase of 14.6%. The weekly output of ferromanganese increased slightly. The demand for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese remained relatively stable [7]. Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample ferrosilicon enterprises decreased by 0.7 to 68.7, a decrease of 9.8%, and the inventory of 63 sample ferromanganese enterprises increased slightly by 0.1 to 18.7, an increase of 0.34% [7].

2025年06月09日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：非农小幅超预期 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：技术突破 | 3 | | 铜：美元回升，限制价格上涨 | 5 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 7 | | 氧化铝：继续下行 | 7 | | 锌：上方偏承压 | 9 | | 铅：低位运行 | 10 | | 锡：止跌回升 | 11 | | 镍：现实支撑与弱势预期博弈，镍价震荡运行 | 13 | | 不锈钢：负反馈传导减产增加，钢价区间震荡 | 13 | | 碳酸锂：短期进口减量，长期供需过剩，震荡 | 15 | | 工业硅：情绪见顶，盘面具备下行动能 | 17 | | 多晶硅：现货具备下跌驱动，盘面空配为主 | 17 | | 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 19 | | 螺纹钢：低位震荡 | 20 | | 热轧卷板：低位震荡 | 20 | | 硅铁：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 锰硅：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦炭：三轮提降落地，宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 焦煤：事故扰动，宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 动力煤：需求仍待释放，宽幅震荡 | 26 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 27 | | ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 更新时间：2025年06月05日08时09分 一、螺纹、热卷 报告导读： 消息面上，有传言称外蒙将上调煤炭资源税至 20%，目前尚没有该国官方消息发布。 特朗普将钢铝关税提高至 50%，可能对钢材出口形成更大的 压力。 目前政策面利多基本兑现，前期中美贸易紧张局势缓解也体现在价格中 。房地产仍处于筑底过程中，对钢材的需求仍边际减弱。上周我的钢 铁公布的数据显示，产量有所回落，厂库下降，社库继续回落，总库存下降，表观需求环比微幅上升，数据对期价有所提振。从需求的季节性规律 看，表观需求高峰期已过，随着雨季和高温天气的到来，需求将进一步走弱。限产传闻对市场提振作用有限。钢企普遍认为，行业确实需要减产， 但近期钢企亏损状况有所改善，企业主动减产的动力偏弱。整体来看，目前市场逐渐由强现实向弱现实转变 ，弱预期也没有发生实质性的改变。从 技术上看，价格跌破了近期的震荡区间，形成向下的有效突破，短线在消息面刺激下的反弹不影响趋势的延续 。 操作建议： 空单持有 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | --- | ...

Report Information - Report Title: Steel Tariff Increase, Steel Prices Under Pressure - Weekly Report 20250603 [1] - Researcher: Lin Na [2] - Contact Information: Email: linna_qh@ccnew.com; Phone: 0371 - 58620083 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is facing downward pressure due to the increase in import steel tariffs and the approaching of the off - season. Steel prices are expected to continue to decline in the short term. Iron ore, coking coal, and coke are also expected to show weak trends due to supply - demand imbalances [3][4][5]. Summary by Directory 01. Market Review - Steel prices have continuously declined due to the intensification of overseas risk disturbances and the approaching of the off - season. Futures prices have dropped significantly, and the basis has widened [9]. - Spot prices of various steel products, iron ore, coking coal, and coke have all decreased. The long - and short - position holdings of futures contracts have changed, and inventory has generally decreased [9]. 02. Steel Supply - Demand Analysis Production - National weekly production of rebar decreased by 2.58% week - on - week to 225.51 million tons, and that of hot - rolled coil increased by 4.54% week - on - week to 319.55 million tons [15][17]. - Rebar production from blast furnaces and electric furnaces both decreased, with blast furnace production at 200.12 million tons (down 1.22% week - on - week) and electric furnace production at 25.39 million tons (down 12.08% week - on - week) [22]. Operating Rate - The blast furnace operating rate remained stable at 83.87% (up 0.22% week - on - week), and the electric furnace operating rate increased to 77.78% (up 0.78% week - on - week) [27]. Profit - Rebar profit slightly increased to +90 yuan/ton (up 2.27% week - on - week), while hot - rolled coil profit decreased to +33 yuan/ton (down 17.5% week - on - week) [31]. Demand - Rebar apparent consumption increased by 0.63% week - on - week to 248.68 million tons, and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption increased by 4.43% week - on - week to 326.93 million tons [36]. Inventory - Rebar total inventory decreased by 3.83% week - on - week to 581.05 million tons, with both factory and social inventories decreasing. Hot - rolled coil total inventory decreased by 2.17% week - on - week to 332.81 million tons, with both factory and social inventories decreasing [40][45]. Downstream Industries - In the real estate market, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 2.12% week - on - week, and the transaction area of land in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 5.97% week - on - week [48]. - In April 2025, automobile production and sales decreased by 12.9% and 11.2% month - on - month respectively, but increased by 8.9% and 9.8% year - on - year respectively [51]. 03. Iron Ore Supply - Demand Analysis Supply - The shipment volume from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil increased by 3.72% week - on - week to 2830.6 million tons, and the arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 17.91% week - on - week to 2536.5 million tons [58]. Demand - Daily hot metal production decreased by 1.69 million tons week - on - week to 241.91 million tons, and the port clearance volume of iron ore decreased by 0.13% week - on - week to 326.68 million tons [63]. Inventory - Iron ore inventory at 45 ports decreased by 0.87% week - on - week to 13866.58 million tons, and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises decreased by 1.92% week - on - week to 8754.33 million tons [69]. 04. Coking Coal and Coke Supply - Demand Analysis Supply - The operating rate of coking coal mines decreased by 0.94% week - on - week to 85.49%, and the daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume increased by 29.10% week - on - week to 14.97 million tons [75]. - The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants decreased by 24 yuan/ton week - on - week to - 39 yuan/ton, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.28% week - on - week to 75.66% [83]. Demand - The daily hot metal production was 241.91 million tons (down 1.69 million tons week - on - week) [5]. Inventory - Coking coal inventory in independent coking plants decreased by 2.88% week - on - week to 716.64 million tons, and coking coal inventory in ports increased by 0.51% week - on - week to 303.09 million tons [89]. - Coke inventory in independent coking plants increased by 7.15% week - on - week to 78.33 million tons, and coke inventory in ports decreased by 2.65% week - on - week to 217.18 million tons [95]. Spot Price - Coking coal prices showed a weak trend, and the second - round price reduction of coke was implemented [96]. 05. Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil has widened, and the spread between the 10 - 01 contracts of rebar has widened [103]. - The 9 - 1 spread of iron ore has slightly widened, and the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar has slightly narrowed [106].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the metallurgical coke prices are stable but weak in the market, with specific prices reported for different grades of coke [1] - As of June 4, the prices for various grades of coke are as follows: - Wet quenching metallurgical coke: 1100 CNY/ton - Dry quenching metallurgical coke: 1320-1330 CNY/ton - First-grade dry quenching metallurgical coke: 1420-1440 CNY/ton [1] - The national coke price overview shows a range of prices for different grades and brands, with the highest market price for first-grade metallurgical coke at 2500 CNY/ton [2] Group 2 - On June 4, the futures market for coke saw the main contract closing at 1367.5 CNY/ton, with a daily increase of 5.72% and a trading volume of 46,507 contracts [2] - The coal inventory in Qinhuangdao recorded 6.63 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons from the previous trading day [3] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange reported a decrease in coke futures warehouse receipts by 10 contracts compared to the previous trading day [4] Group 3 - According to Hengtai Futures research, the profit margins for steel mills have contracted, leading to a decrease in procurement enthusiasm and a slowdown in inventory replenishment [5] - The core of the fundamental adjustment remains the quality of terminal demand, with expectations for a short-term rebound in coke prices [5] - The recommendation for traders is to consider short positions during mid-term rebounds [5]

| 材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年6月4日 | | | 問敏波 | 20010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 即值 | 涨跌 | 某差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3090 | 3120 | -30 | 185 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3150 | 3160 | -10 | 245 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3200 | 3230 | -30 | 295 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 2910 | 2973 | -63 | 180 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 2928 | 2961 | -33 | 162 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 2905 | 2967 | -62 | 185 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3170 | 3170 | 0 | 125 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3100 | 3140 | -40 | ਵੇਂ | | | 热卷现 ...

6月4日盘中，焦炭期货主力合约遭遇一波急速上涨，最高上探至1328.0元。截止发稿，焦炭主力合约报 1318.5元，涨幅1.93%。 供应端，焦炭二轮提降落地，焦企利润进一步收缩，但因成本同步下降，部分企业仍处盈利区间，整体 供应持稳。需求端，铁水产量连续下滑，需求支撑逐渐弱化。上游库存压力尚可，下游钢厂以消耗前期 原料库存为主、补库积极性不佳，焦企焦炭库存由降转增。总体来看，当前焦炭市场基本面尚可，淡季 需求预期疲软叠加成本拖累，焦炭价格易跌难涨。 瑞达期货：焦炭震荡偏弱运行对待 美国总统特朗普表示，6月4日起，将把钢铁和铝的进口关税从25%提高至50%，关税扰动，市场情绪反 复。基本面，原料端供应宽松拖累成本支撑，铁水产量高位回落。利润方面，本期全国30家独立焦化厂 平均吨焦亏损39元/吨。技术方面，4小时周期K线位于20和60均线下方，操作上，震荡偏弱运行对待， 请投资者注意风险控制。 供应方面，主产区焦企开工整体维持稳定，少数企业因环保检查及出货压力小幅调整生产节奏，但产能 释放未见显著收缩。需求方面，钢厂延续原料低库存策略，采购积极性偏弱，叠加铁水产量见顶回落， 焦炭刚需边际走弱，市场供强需弱格局深 ...

| 钢材产业期现日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 問敏波 | Z0010559 | 2025年6月3日 | | | | | | | | | | | 钢材价格及价差 | 品种 | 某美 | 现值 | 涨跌 | 单位 | 即值 | | | | | | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3120 | 3120 | O | 153 | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3160 | 3160 | O | 193 | | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3230 | 3250 | -20 | 263 | 螺纹钢05合约 | 2973 | 3003 | 147 | -30 | | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 2961 | 2978 | -17 | ।ਟੋਰੇ | 螺纹钢01合约 | 153 | 2967 | 2982 | -18 | | | | 元/吨 | 热卷现货(华东) | 3170 | 3200 | 88 | ...