Market Review - The main contract for coking coal futures closed at 1646.5 CNY/ton, a slight decrease of 0.90% [1] Fundamental Summary - The China Coastal Bulk Freight Index (CBFI) is reported at 1027.14 points, while the China Coastal Coal Freight Index (CBCFI) increased by 5.8% to 698.59 points [2] - Baotailong (601011) announced a comprehensive overhaul of its coke oven equipment scheduled for October 2024, which has been completed. The upgraded coke oven incorporates advanced environmental technology and intelligent equipment, aligning with national green and low-carbon development policies, enhancing product quality and market competitiveness. The company will assess economic benefits based on market conditions to determine the specific timing for resuming operations [2] - The capacity utilization rate for independent coking enterprises is 75.18%, an increase of 0.05%. The average daily output of coke is 66.12, up by 0.04, while coke inventory stands at 63.84, an increase of 1.53. The total inventory of coking coal is 959.06, down by 78.65, with available days of coking coal at 10.9 days, a decrease of 0.9 days [2] Institutional Perspectives - According to Everbright Futures, the supply side has stabilized as coking enterprises maintain normal production levels following the first round of price increases, alleviating profit pressures. However, demand has been affected by holiday logistics and rainfall in northern regions, leading to a decrease in inventory at steel mills and a general pressure on prices, resulting in limited replenishment of raw materials. Short-term expectations indicate wide fluctuations in coking coal prices [3] - Jinrui Futures notes that during the National Day holiday, pig iron production remained high, leading to a reduction in overall supply and an increase in demand for coking coal, accelerating inventory depletion and igniting expectations for replenishment post-holiday. However, due to significant inventory accumulation during the holiday and shrinking profits for steel mills, the outlook for steel demand in the fourth quarter appears weak, suggesting limited replenishment efforts and a pessimistic short-term price outlook for coking coal. Recommendations include short-selling strategies, with risks associated with unexpected growth in steel demand and tighter supply of dual coking coal [3]

Core Insights - The coke sector experienced a 2.59% increase on October 10, with Baotailong leading the gains, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.94% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Baotailong's stock price closed at 3.27, reflecting a 10.10% increase with a trading volume of 835,300 shares and a transaction value of 270 million yuan [1] - Other notable performers included Shanxi Black Cat, which rose by 4.49% to 3.72, and Yunmei Energy, which increased by 3.93% to 3.97 [1] - The overall trading volume for the coke sector was significant, with Baotailong leading in both price increase and transaction value [1] Group 2: Capital Flow - The coke sector saw a net inflow of 40.27 million yuan from main funds, while retail funds experienced a net inflow of 231,000 yuan [1] - Baotailong attracted a net inflow of 80.73 million yuan from main funds, despite a net outflow of 30.20 million yuan from speculative funds [2] - The capital flow data indicates a mixed sentiment among retail investors, with significant outflows from several companies, including Meijin Energy and Antai Group [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For the steel industry, after the holiday, steel prices rebounded slightly. Steel production decreased slightly during the holiday, and inventory increased significantly due to stagnant demand. The supply - demand gap narrowed at the end of September. In October, demand is expected to recover seasonally, and inventory is expected to decline seasonally. The short - term supply and demand are basically balanced, and inventory pressure is not large. Pay attention to the support levels of 3050 and 3200 for rebar and hot - rolled coil January contracts respectively. The unilateral drive is not obvious. For arbitrage, reverse arbitrage on the monthly spread at high levels and convergence of the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread are recommended [3]. - For the iron ore industry, on the first trading day after the holiday, iron ore showed an oscillating upward trend. There are many disturbances on the supply side, but the external iron ore swap still follows the domestic price trend. Iron ore has a rebound drive, but the upward space depends on steel prices to give steel mills profits. Short - term, buy iron ore 2601 at low prices, with a price range of 760 - 830, go long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coil, and buy out - of - the - money call options on iron ore 2601 [5]. - For the coke and coking coal industries, after the holiday, coke and coking coal futures rebounded from the bottom, showing a divergence between futures and spot. The coke market is expected to have another round of price increase, but may face downward pressure due to compressed steel mill profits. The coking coal market is expected to be weak but the futures have a rebound expectation. For coke, buy coking coal 2601 at low prices in the price range of 1550 - 1750, conduct 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage on coke, and buy out - of - the - money call options on coke 2601. For coking coal, buy at low prices in the price range of 1080 - 1180, conduct 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage, and buy out - of - the - money call options on coking coal 2601 [8][9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East, North, and South China are 3240, 3210, and 3320 yuan/ton respectively. Rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts are at 3096, 3159, and 3020 yuan/ton respectively. Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East, North, and South China are 3350, 3290, and 3320 yuan/ton respectively. Hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts are at 3293, 3259, and 3370 yuan/ton respectively [2][4]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet price is 2960 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. Plate billet price is 3730 yuan/ton, unchanged. Profits of East, North, and South China hot - rolled coils are 66, 16, and 46 yuan/ton respectively, all decreasing [3]. Supply and Inventory - Daily average pig iron output is 241.5, down 0.3 (- 0.1%). Five - major steel products output is 863.3 (down 3.8, - 0.4%) million tons. Rebar output is 203.4, down 3.6 (- 1.7%). Five - major steel products inventory is 1600.7 (up 127.9, 8.7%) million tons, rebar inventory is 659.6 (up 57.4, 9.5%), and hot - rolled coil inventory is 412.9 (up 32.3, 8.5%) [3]. Demand - Building materials trading volume is 12.0, up 3.9 (49.0%). Five - major steel products apparent demand is 751.4, down 153.4 (- 17.0%) [3]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - Warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders and spot prices at Rizhao Port have different changes. The 5 - 9 spread is 20.5, up 1.5 (7.9%); the 9 - 1 spread is - 40.0, unchanged; the 1 - 5 spread is 19.5, down 1.5 (- 7.1%) [5]. Supply - 45 - port weekly arrivals are 2608.7, up 248.2 (10.5%) million tons. Global weekly shipments are 3279.0, down 196.4 (- 5.7%) million tons. National monthly import volume is 10522.5, up 61.5 (0.6%) [5]. Demand - 247 steel mills' weekly average daily pig iron output is 241.5, down 0.3 (- 0.1%). 45 - port weekly average daily port clearance is 0.0, down 336.4 (- 100.0%) million tons. National monthly pig iron and crude steel outputs are 6979.3 and 7736.9 respectively, both decreasing [5]. Inventory - 45 - port inventory decreased by 22.5 (- 0.2%) million tons compared to Monday. 247 steel mills' imported iron ore inventory increased by 300.4 (3.1%). 64 steel mills' inventory available days decreased by 4.0 (- 16.0%) [5]. Coke and Coking Coal Industries Prices and Spreads - Coke and coking coal contract prices and basis have different changes. For example, coke 01 contract is 1654, up 31 (1.9%); coking coal 01 contract is 1164, up 38 (3.4%) [9]. Supply - Coke production: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants is 66.1, unchanged; 247 steel mills' daily average output is 241.8, down 0.6 (- 0.2%) million tons. Coking coal production: Raw coal output is 836.7, down 31.3 (- 3.6%); refined coal product is 426.3, down 19.8 (- 4.4%) million tons [9]. Demand - 247 steel mills' pig iron output is 241.5, down 0.3 (- 0.1%) million tons. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants for coke demand is 66.1, unchanged [9]. Inventory - Coke total inventory is 909.8, down 10.1 (- 1.1%). Coking coal inventory: Fenwei coal mine refined coal inventory increased by 14.1 (14.5%), and other inventories had different changes [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoint of the Report - The supply and demand of coking coal and coke remain relatively high. The peak demand season combined with the downstream's remaining restocking space supports the confidence of the raw material market to hold prices firm. In the short term, the futures market will maintain a wide - range volatile operation [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Coal and Coke Market - On the first trading day after the holiday, the futures prices of coking coal and coke rebounded with oscillations and closed in the green. Driven by downstream restocking during the holiday, the first round of coke price increase was completed. The price of tamped dry - quenched coke increased by 55 yuan/ton, and tamped wet - quenched coke increased by 50 yuan/ton [2] - After the first - round price increase of coke, the profits of coke enterprises have improved. Most coke enterprises maintain a normal production rhythm, with a capacity utilization rate of around 75%. Although the transportation capacity in the main production areas was slightly affected during the holiday and logistics was relatively slow, coke shipments were in an orderly manner without blockages [2] - Steel mills' operations remain at a relatively high level, with the daily average pig iron output maintained at around 2.42 million tons, which supports the demand for raw materials [2] Coking Coal Market - The coking coal market is generally stable, with individual mine prices adjusting downward from high levels. Currently, the inventory pressure at the coal mine end is not obvious, supporting relatively firm prices [3] - The fourth - quarter long - term contract price of Mongolian coking coal at the pithead has increased from 53.54 - 54.35 US dollars to 57.3 - 58.15 US dollars, an increase of about 7%, with the warehouse - delivery equivalent price at about 770 - 800 yuan/ton. It is rumored that after the National Day, Mongolian coal customs clearance will increase the transportation capacity through automated loading and unloading, with the daily customs clearance volume increasing from the previous upper limit of 1,500 to 2,000, and a one - month trial operation after the National Day, which needs continuous tracking [3]

Core Viewpoint - Meijin Energy's stock price has shown a positive trend with an increase of 11.53% year-to-date, reflecting investor interest despite recent fluctuations in trading volume and net capital outflow [1][2]. Company Overview - Meijin Energy, established on January 8, 1997, and listed on May 15, 1997, is located in Taiyuan, Shanxi Province. The company primarily engages in the production and sales of coal, coke, natural gas, and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, with 97.45% of its revenue coming from coal and coke products [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Meijin Energy reported a revenue of 8.245 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.46%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was -674 million yuan, showing a slight increase of 1.29% compared to the previous period [2]. - The company has cumulatively distributed 1.976 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with no dividends paid in the last three years [3]. Shareholder Structure - As of June 30, 2025, Meijin Energy had 248,700 shareholders, a decrease of 5.77% from the previous period. The average number of tradable shares per shareholder increased by 6.12% to 17,679 shares [2]. - Major institutional shareholders include Guotai Zhongxin Coal ETF, holding 47.8686 million shares, and Southern CSI 500 ETF, holding 45.7507 million shares, both showing increases in their holdings [3].

Group 1 - Antai Group's stock price increased by 5.19% to 2.43 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 2.447 billion CNY as of the report date [1] - The company has experienced a continuous rise in stock price for four consecutive days, with a cumulative increase of 6.45% during this period [1] - Antai Group's main business includes the production and sales of coke and its by-products, with revenue composition as follows: 73.03% from section steel, 18.65% from coke processing and chemical products, 2.92% from electricity processing, 2.05% from scrap steel, and 1.68% from other sources [1] Group 2 - Noan Multi-Strategy Mixed A Fund entered the top ten circulating shareholders of Antai Group, holding 4.8186 million shares, which is 0.48% of the circulating shares [2] - The fund has generated a floating profit of approximately 578,200 CNY today and 674,600 CNY during the four-day increase [2] - The fund has a year-to-date return of 60.31%, ranking 752 out of 8166 in its category, and a one-year return of 89%, ranking 163 out of 8014 [2] Group 3 - The fund manager of Noan Multi-Strategy Mixed A is Kong Xianzheng, who has a tenure of 4 years and 319 days, with a total fund asset size of 4.607 billion CNY [3] - The best fund return during Kong's tenure is 74.86%, while the worst is -16.74% [3] - The co-manager, Wang Haichang, has a tenure of 3 years and 81 days, managing assets of 2.529 billion CNY, with a best return of 62.55% and a worst return of -18.8% [3]

Core Insights - The coke sector experienced a significant increase of 3.76% on October 9, with Shanxi Coking leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3933.97, up 1.32%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13725.56, up 1.47% [1] Sector Performance - Shanxi Coking (600740) closed at 4.07, with a rise of 4.63% and a trading volume of 338,500 shares, amounting to 1.35 billion yuan [1] - Meijin Energy (000723) closed at 4.93, up 4.45%, with a trading volume of 1,083,800 shares, totaling 526 million yuan [1] - Baotailong (601011) closed at 2.97, increasing by 3.12%, with a trading volume of 514,000 shares, amounting to 150 million yuan [1] - Yunwei Co. (600725) closed at 3.53, up 2.92%, with a trading volume of 210,400 shares, totaling 73.25 million yuan [1] - Shaanxi Black Cat (601015) closed at 3.56, increasing by 2.89%, with a trading volume of 236,900 shares, amounting to 83.36 million yuan [1] - Antai Group (600408) closed at 2.31, up 2.21%, with a trading volume of 302,700 shares, totaling 68.88 million yuan [1] - Yunmei Energy (600792) closed at 3.82, increasing by 2.14%, with a trading volume of 128,500 shares, amounting to 48.63 million yuan [1] Capital Flow - The coke sector saw a net inflow of 28.36 million yuan from main funds, while retail funds experienced a net inflow of 13.28 million yuan [1] - The main funds for Shanxi Coking showed a net inflow of over 8.59 million yuan, while retail funds had a net inflow of 1.00 million yuan [2] - Baotailong had a net inflow of 5.86 million yuan from main funds, but a net outflow of 6.44 million yuan from retail funds [2] - Meijin Energy experienced a net inflow of 4.38 million yuan from main funds, with a significant net outflow of 25.14 million yuan from retail funds [2] - Shaanxi Black Cat had a net inflow of 5.17 million yuan from main funds, while retail funds showed a net outflow of 3.06 million yuan [2]

10月9日，陕西黑猫盘中上涨2.02%，截至13:01，报3.53元/股，成交4006.46万元，换手率0.56%，总市 值72.10亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流入453.60万元，特大单买入271.12万元，占比6.77%，卖出0.00元，占比 0.00%；大单买入619.55万元，占比15.46%，卖出437.07万元，占比10.91%。 陕西黑猫今年以来股价涨5.69%，近5个交易日跌0.56%，近20日涨2.02%，近60日涨4.44%。 今年以来陕西黑猫已经1次登上龙虎榜，最近一次登上龙虎榜为3月20日，当日龙虎榜净买入4087.09万 元；买入总计5756.60万元 ，占总成交额比29.62%；卖出总计1669.50万元 ，占总成交额比8.59%。 资料显示，陕西黑猫焦化股份有限公司位于陕西省韩城市黄河矿业大楼，成立日期2003年11月18日，上 市日期2014年11月5日，公司主营业务涉及焦化产品、煤化工产品和煤炭产品的生产和销售。主营业务 收入构成为：焦炭72.06%，焦油6.15%，LNG5.78%，精煤3.51%，合成氨3.42%，粗苯3.14%，甲醇 2.80%，BDO0.95%， ...

Group 1: Report's Core View - The supply and demand sides of coking coal and coke remain at a relatively high level. The peak demand season and the downstream's inventory replenishment space support the price - holding confidence in the raw material market. The short - term futures market will maintain a wide - range volatile operation [3][4] Group 2: Industry Analysis Coke Market - During the National Day holiday, the coking coal and coke market was generally stable with a slight upward trend. Driven by downstream inventory replenishment, coke completed the first round of price increase at the beginning of the month. The price of tamping dry - quenched coke increased by 55 yuan/ton, and that of tamping wet - quenched coke increased by 50 yuan/ton [3] - After the first - round price increase of coke, coke enterprises' profits improved. Most coke enterprises maintained a normal production rhythm, with a capacity utilization rate of about 75%. Although the transportation capacity in the main production areas was slightly affected during the holiday and logistics was relatively slow, coke shipments were in an orderly manner [3] - Steel mills'开工 remained at a relatively high level, with the daily average pig iron output maintaining at about 2.42 million tons, which supported the demand for raw materials [3] Coking Coal Market - The coking coal market was generally stable, with individual mine prices experiencing high - level corrections. The current inventory pressure at the coal mine end was not obvious, which supported the relatively firm price [4] - Regarding imported coal, the fourth - quarter long - term contract price of Mongolian coal at the pithead increased from 53.54 - 54.35 US dollars to 57.3 - 58.15 US dollars, an increase of about 7%, with the equivalent warehouse price of about 770 - 800 yuan/ton. It was rumored that after the National Day, Mongolian coal customs clearance would increase the transportation capacity through automated loading and unloading, increasing the daily customs clearance volume from the previous upper limit of 1,500 to 2,000, with a one - month trial operation after the National Day, which needed continuous tracking [4]

Report on the Steel Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - After the holiday, demand for steel is expected to seasonally recover, and inventory is expected to maintain a seasonal destocking trend. Although demand elasticity is limited, short - term supply and demand are basically balanced, and inventory pressure is not significant. - Before the holiday, the decline in steel prices was due to concerns about supply pressure and the expected swing of coal mine production cuts. During the holiday, there were disturbances on the iron ore supply side, which is expected to support steel prices to stabilize. - For trading strategies, the unilateral driving force is not obvious. In terms of arbitrage, reverse arbitrage on the monthly spread should be considered at high levels, and the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar is expected to converge. [1] Summary by Directory Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts generally declined. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China dropped from 3240 yuan/ton to 3230 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract price of hot - rolled coils decreased from 3298 yuan/ton to 3259 yuan/ton. [1] Cost and Profit - The price of steel billets decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 2950 yuan/ton, while the price of slab remained unchanged at 3730 yuan/ton. - Profits from steel products generally declined. For example, the profit of hot - rolled coils in East China decreased by 35 yuan/ton. [1] Production and Inventory - The daily average pig iron output increased by 1.0 to 242.0, a 0.4% increase. The production of five major steel products increased by 2.1 to 867.1, a 0.2% increase. - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 37.8 to 1472.9, a 2.5% decrease. The inventory of rebar decreased by 34.1 to 602.3, a 5.4% decrease. [1] Transaction and Demand - Building material transactions decreased by 2.9 to 8.0, a 26.5% decrease. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 30.8 to 904.8, a 3.5% increase. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 20.6 to 241.1, a 9.4% increase. [1] Report on the Iron Ore Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - There have been many disturbances on the supply side of iron ore, but the overseas iron ore swap market has only shown a slight increase. Iron ore has a driving force for a rebound, but the upside space is limited. Attention should be paid to the actual arrival of BHP's shipments at ports. - For trading strategies, short - term investors can buy iron ore 2601 contracts at low levels in the price range of 760 - 830, go long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coils, and buy out - of - the - money call options on iron ore 2601. [4] Summary by Directory Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The basis of the 01 - contract for different types of iron ore increased. For example, the basis of the 01 - contract for PB powder increased by 3.5 to 44.4, an 8.5% increase. - The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 0.5 to 19.0, a 2.6% decrease; the 9 - 1 spread increased by 1.0 to - 40.0, a 2.4% increase; the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 0.5 to 21.0, a 2.3% decrease. [4] Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The price of some iron ore varieties at Rizhao Port remained unchanged, while the price of new - exchange 62% Fe swaps increased slightly by 0.2 to 104.2, a 0.1% increase. [4] Supply and Demand - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 248.2 to 2608.7, a 10.5% increase; the global weekly shipping volume decreased by 196.4 to 3279.0, a 5.7% decrease. - The weekly average daily pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.6 to 241.8, a 0.2% decrease; the weekly average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports decreased by 336.4 to 0.0, a 100.0% decrease. [4] Report on the Coke and Coking Coal Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoints Coke - After the holiday, there is an expectation of another round of price increases for coke, but due to the decline in steel prices and the compression of steel mill profits, there may be downward pressure on prices. Since the pre - holiday decline in the futures market has already factored in some of the downward expectations, the further downward space is limited, and the market is expected to fluctuate. - For trading strategies, operate in a fluctuating market with a price range of 1550 - 1650. Go long on coke and short on coking coal, and buy out - of - the - money call options on coke 2601 (over - the - counter) to bet on the post - holiday restocking expectation. [8] Coking Coal - Although there have been some disturbances on the supply side, considering the pre - holiday weak operation of the coking coal market, the impact is expected to be limited. The long - term import trade of coking coal will still maintain high profits, and the post - holiday customs clearance volume is expected to remain high, which will have a certain impact on the domestic coking coal market. Since the pre - holiday decline in the futures market has already factored in some of the downward expectations, the market is expected to fluctuate. - For trading strategies, operate in a fluctuating market with a price range of 1080 - 1180. Go long on coke and short on coking coal, and buy out - of - the - money call options on coking coal 2601 (over - the - counter) to bet on the policy - driven production reduction expectation. [8] Summary by Directory Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of coke contracts generally declined. For example, the 01 - contract price of coke decreased by 24 to 1623, a 1.5% decrease. The 01 - contract basis increased by 24. [8] Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of coking coal contracts also declined. For example, the 01 - contract price of coking coal decreased by 28 to 1126, a 2.4% decrease. The 01 - contract basis increased by 23. [8] Supply and Demand - Coke production decreased slightly. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.3 to 66.1, a 0.4% decrease. - The pig iron output decreased by 0.6 to 241.8, a 0.2% decrease. - Coke inventory decreased slightly, while coking coal inventory in some sectors increased. For example, the inventory of all - sample coking plants' coking coal increased by 38.6 to 1037.7, a 3.9% increase. [8]