1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report predicts that PX, PTA, and PR will operate strongly (PX view score: 1, PTA view score: 1, PR view score: 1) [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The polyester industry chain is currently facing weak demand and is mainly driven by cost. PTA will move in a volatile manner with cost as the dominant factor. The profit distribution pattern of the industry chain has tilted towards the raw material link again [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Changes - On July 17, 2025, WTI crude oil futures settlement price was $67.54 per barrel, up 1.75%; Brent crude oil futures settlement price was $69.52 per barrel, up 1.46% [1] - The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $574.75 per ton, down 1.14%; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $692.00 per ton, down 1.91% [1] - The spot price of PX (CFR China Main Port) was $833.00 per ton, down 0.16%; CZCE TA main contract closing price was 4,714 yuan per ton, up 0.17% [1] - The CCFEI price index of PTA internal market was 4,728 yuan per ton, up 0.21%; the external market was $620.00 per ton, down 0.16% [1] - CZCE PX main contract closing price was 6,742 yuan per ton, up 0.39%; CZCE PR main contract closing price was 5,902 yuan per ton, up 0.27% [1] - The market price of polyester bottle - chips in East China was 5,935 yuan per ton, up 0.17%; in South China was 6,010 yuan per ton, up 0.17% [1] - The CCFEI price index of polyester products such as DTY, POY, and short - fiber showed different degrees of decline or remained unchanged [2] Operating Conditions - On July 17, 2025, the operating rate of PX in the polyester industry chain was 78.32%, down 0.66%; the PTA factory load rate was 80.59%, unchanged; the polyester factory load rate was 87.15%, unchanged; the bottle - chip factory load rate was 71.93%, unchanged; the load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 58.02%, down 1.10% [1] - The sales - to - production ratio of polyester filament was 40.00%, down 2.00%; the sales - to - production ratio of polyester staple fiber was 53.00%, up 9.00%; the sales - to - production ratio of polyester chips was 53.00%, down 10.00% [1] Device Information - Dongying United's 2.5 million - ton PTA device was under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days; Yisheng New Materials' 3.3 million - ton PTA device reduced its load by about 50% around June 15 and has now returned to normal; Yisheng Hainan's 2 million - ton PTA device is expected to undergo technical transformation for 3 months starting from August 1 [2] Market Analysis - International crude oil prices showed an interval fluctuation. Although there was a short - term rebound, the supply - demand situation was weak. PTA will have new device put into production in the third quarter, which is mismatched with PX in time. Currently, PX inventory is at a historical low, with strong bottom support [2] - The market is trading on the maintenance expectation of PTA under low processing fees. The downstream polyester operating rate is still higher than that of last year, and the spot basis has strengthened. However, due to the expected new device production on the supply side and the lack of improvement in the off - season on the demand side, it is difficult to boost prices [2] - The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle - chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was stable at 5,900 - 6,000 yuan per ton. The supply side's quotations were mixed, with low operating rates but sufficient market supply. Downstream terminal buying enthusiasm was average, and market sentiment was cautious [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polyester industry has certain demand resilience in 2025, but the growth height is limited. The downstream terminal demand is affected by the macro - situation, and the foreign demand faces challenges. The cost - side crude oil supply and demand tend to be in surplus, while PXN has strong support. PTA is in an expansion cycle with compressed industrial profits, and MEG has low - inventory and high - valuation characteristics, facing the pressure of inventory accumulation [1][5]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Market Review - **PX**: In the first half of 2025, the PX price fluctuated widely, and the absolute price mainly followed the trend of crude oil [8]. - **PTA**: In the first half of 2025, the PTA price also fluctuated widely following the crude oil [12]. - **MEG**: The MEG price was affected by crude oil, and its center of gravity moved downward [16]. 3.2 Polyester Demand - **Production and Demand Forecast**: It is estimated that the polyester production in 2025 will be about 78.28 million tons, with a demand growth rate of about 6%. The production in the first half of the year was about 39 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 8%. The second - half demand will follow the seasonal pattern, but the overall height is limited due to the over - export in the first half [19]. - **New Capacity**: The planned new polyester capacity in 2025 is 6.3 million tons, with a capacity growth rate of about 8%. The new capacity in the first half of the year was 2.6 million tons, and 3.7 million tons are planned to be put into production in the second half. Bottle - chip production accounts for a large proportion, and the short - fiber production has little increase [22]. - **Inventory and Profit**: Except for bottle - chips, the inventory pressure of filament and short - fiber is not large. The polyester comprehensive profit in the first half of 2025 was low, with filament in a small - profit state, short - fiber's profit compressed in the off - season, and bottle - chips in a loss state. In the second half, the bottle - chip over - supply pattern will intensify, while the short - fiber profit may rise [25][28]. 3.3 Terminal Demand - In the first half of 2025, the domestic demand showed the characteristic of "peak season not prosperous". The downstream factories have low expectations and low enthusiasm for stockpiling. The domestic demand may be improved by policies, but the foreign orders may decrease in the second half [31][34]. 3.4 Cost Side - **Naphtha and Gasoline**: In the first half of 2025, the naphtha spread was at a high level, and it will remain strong in the second half. The gasoline cracking profit will maintain a neutral level, with obvious differentiation between peak and off - seasons [38]. - **PX Capacity and Supply**: Since 2024, PX has entered the end of the expansion cycle. In 2025, the new capacity is expected to be 3 million tons, with a capacity growth rate of about 5%. The new supply growth rate is only 1%, and the supply depends on the load of existing devices and imports. The PX valuation has strong support below, and the import volume is expected to increase in the second half [39][47][49]. - **PX Inventory**: In the first half of 2025, PX was in a state of destocking, with a destocking volume of about 900,000 tons. In the second half, there will be a certain supply - demand gap, and the destocking volume is expected to be 500,000 - 600,000 tons [52][53]. 3.5 PTA - **Capacity and Supply**: In 2025, the PTA capacity will continue to expand, with an expected new capacity of 8.7 million tons. The new supply pressure is large, with an average new production growth rate of 11%. The supply pressure will intensify after the commissioning of Honggang Petrochemical and Sanfangxiang in the middle of the year. The export volume has decreased, and the inventory accumulation pressure is large in the second half [56][59][69]. 3.6 MEG - **Capacity and Supply**: The MEG capacity growth rate has declined. In 2025, the planned new capacity is 1.6 million tons, and the new production growth rate is about 2.7%. The supply is expected to remain at a high level in the second half, and attention should be paid to the changes in existing devices [72][75]. - **Profit and Inventory**: The MEG profit in the second half of 2025 will face certain pressure. The import volume is expected to increase. The current inventory is at a low level, and it is expected to enter the inventory - accumulation stage in the third quarter [78][81][84]. 3.7 Trading Opportunities Outlook in the Middle of 2025 - **PX**: The PX price mainly follows the crude oil, with an absolute price range of 6,000 - 7,500 yuan/ton. Consider long - position opportunities at low levels, and 9 - 1 positive spreads or long - PXN at low levels [85]. - **PTA**: The PTA price follows the crude oil, with an absolute price range of 4,000 - 5,300 yuan/ton. The processing fee should be short - sold at high levels, and 9 - 1 positive spreads can be tried [86]. - **MEG**: The MEG price is expected to run weakly in the range of 3,800 - 4,600 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short - sell at high levels, and pay attention to the long - TA and short - EG positions [87].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - PTA: With reduced maintenance of existing plants and upcoming new capacity, while the load of downstream polyester and end - users is falling, the spot processing fee of PTA is at a low level within the year, and the supply - demand contradiction is expanding, showing a weak fluctuation [3]. - MEG: The supply at home and abroad is lower than expected, and the port inventory is not high, so the futures price is relatively strong. However, due to the poor performance of polyester and end - users, the upside space is limited [3]. - Short - fiber: The absolute price fluctuates with raw materials. After the plant reduction, the processing fee has been repaired. Currently, it is difficult for the processing fee to rise further during the off - season of demand [3]. - Bottle - chip: The absolute price fluctuates with raw materials. Since the end of June, under the background of production reduction, the processing fee has improved. If the supply side does not narrow further, it may be difficult for the bottle - chip processing fee to increase again [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PTA - Cost - end: Recently, Fuhua's 1.6 million - ton plant is under maintenance, and Zhejiang Petrochemical has reduced its load with postponed maintenance. Shandong Weilian's 1 - million - ton plant is planned to restart in late July, and Tianjin Petrochemical is expected to have maintenance in July. FJDH is expected to have maintenance in September. The Asian PX load hovers around 73% - 74%. Due to the rigid demand support of PTA, the processing margin of PX in the medium - and short - term processes is relatively good, with PX - N around $250/ton [9]. - Supply: Recent maintenance mainly involves Fuhai Chuang's 4.5 - million - ton and Weilian Chemical's 2.5 - million - ton plants, both of which are shut down in conjunction with upstream PX plants and are expected to restart in August. Yisheng Hainan will stop for transformation on August 1st for three months. There will be fewer plants in need of maintenance later. The new plant of Sanfangxiang has been commissioned, and it is expected to start one production line first. Dushan Energy's 2.5 - million - ton plant will be put into operation in October, and the PTA supply is expected to increase significantly [9]. - Demand: Under the pressure of poor demand and high inventory of grey fabrics, the operating rates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms and texturing machines have been continuously decreasing, currently at 56% and 61% respectively, lower than the same period in the previous two years. The current overall polyester load is around 88.5%. As of the week of July 10th, the inventories of POY, FDY, and DTY were 24.2, 24.7, and 29.4 days respectively. The cash flows of short - fiber and bottle - chip have improved under the support of partial plant reduction, and it is unlikely to further reduce the load significantly. However, the cash flows of filament POY and FDY have continued to decline, and recently, major filament factories have decided to start a new round of significant production reduction, which is currently being implemented [8][10]. - Processing Fee: The PTA industry is in an overall loss, the spot processing fee has narrowed to the low level of 216 yuan/ton within the year, and the 09 - contract processing fee on the futures market has dropped to around 300 yuan/ton, with limited room for improvement [9]. MEG - Supply: Due to the improved profit of coal - based ethylene glycol, the enthusiasm for plant operation after maintenance is high, and the current coal - based load has reached the relatively high range of 73%. The load of integrated plants is lower than expected. For example, Satellite Petrochemical's 900,000 - ton plant was originally planned to restart in mid - August but may be postponed due to the maintenance of the cracking plant. In addition, the ethylene glycol load of Zhejiang Petrochemical has unexpectedly decreased. In the overseas market, several Saudi plants were shut down due to power problems, involving a capacity of 1.7 million tons, and the recent restart has been difficult, which may affect the ethylene glycol arrival volume in August. Singapore Shell's 900,000 - ton plant is also planned to start maintenance in mid - August, affecting the import volume in August. Recently, the port inventory has been running below 500,000 tons, and the visible inventory is not high [11]. - Cost: The profit of non - coal - based MEG shows differentiation. The production loss of naphtha - based MEG is $106/ton, and the profit of ethylene - based MEG has improved to - $81/ton. Meanwhile, the port coal price is still hovering at a low level, and domestic coal - based ethylene glycol enterprises have a strong production willingness [11]. - Demand: Similar to PTA, under the pressure of poor demand and high inventory of grey fabrics, the demand is expected to weaken [11]. Short - fiber - Raw Materials: The supply of PTA is significantly increasing with reduced maintenance scale and new capacity, while the supply of ethylene glycol at home and abroad has unexpectedly narrowed, and the low port inventory provides some support, making it relatively strong [12]. - Processing Fee: Currently, the short - fiber operating rate is maintained at around 93%. In the week of July 17th, the short - fiber factory's equity inventory was 8 days, and the physical inventory was 15.5 days. The spot processing fee is around 1,100 yuan/ton. Downstream, due to the hot weather and weak demand, the average operating rate of pure - polyester yarn factories has dropped to 72.4%, the finished - product inventory of yarn factories is 23 days, up from last week, and the raw - material inventory is 7.5 days. Currently, during the domestic off - season of demand and lack of international orders, yarn factories have a weak purchasing willingness. Recently, the short - fiber processing fee is acceptable, and the production - reduction intensity may be limited [12]. Bottle - chip - Demand: From January to June, the cumulative output of soft drinks was 93.09 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.9% [12]. - Supply: Since late June, Huarun's three plants in Jiangyin, Changzhou, and Zhuhai have all reduced production by 20%, Hainan Yisheng's 1.25 - million - ton plant has been under maintenance, and Chongqing Wankai's 600,000 - ton plant has been under maintenance, with a total production capacity of 2.51 million tons involved [12]. - Processing Fee: The bottle - chip spot processing fee has risen from less than 200 yuan/ton in mid - June to around 400 yuan/ton. With the alleviation of supply pressure, the bottle - chip processing fee has improved in the short term. If the supply side does not narrow further, the upside space of the processing fee is also limited [12]. Market Data - PTA: The PTA processing fee is 217 yuan/ton, and the PX - N spread is $253/ton on July 16th [21][23]. - MEG: As of July 17th, the Jiangsu and Zhejiang ethylene glycol port inventory is 494,000 tons, the MEG factory inventory in June is 309,000 tons, and the MEG raw - material inventory of polyester factories in mid - July is 12.5 days. From January to May 2025, the cumulative MEG import was 3.2277 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 25% [33][37]. - Polyester Products: On July 9th and July 16th, 2025, the cash flows of filament POY were 136.66 and 12.85 respectively; the cash flows of filament FDY were - 88.34 and - 212.15 respectively; the cash flows of filament DTY were 50.00 and 100.00 respectively; the short - fiber spot processing fees were 1,185.21 and - 1,085.21 respectively; the bottle - chip spot processing fees were 437.89 and 426.24 respectively [43]. - Textile and Apparel Exports: From January to June 2025, the cumulative export of textile and apparel was $143.98 billion, including $70.52 billion in textile exports, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%, and $73.46 billion in clothing exports, a year - on - year decrease of 0.2%. In June, textile and apparel exports decreased year - on - year due to weak overseas demand and tariff impacts [66].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - PTA shows strength with supply contraction and warm commodity sentiment, but its spot market is becoming looser, and the actual polyester output hits a new high. Polyester downstream load remains at 90% despite the expectation of load reduction, and bottle chips and short - fibers are about to enter the maintenance cycle in July. Northeast PX plant and Zhejiang reform device maintenance are postponed [2] - For ethylene glycol, coal prices rise slightly, commodity sentiment warms up, but the later arrival volume is large. Polyester production and sales weaken, and polyester enters the maintenance cycle. The sharp rise in polyester prices shrinks downstream weaving profits and reduces terminal load, which is a negative impact on the market [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - INE crude oil price drops from 518.2 yuan/barrel on July 15th to 517.4 yuan/barrel on July 16th; PTA - SC rises from 930.2 yuan/ton to 946.0 yuan/ton; PTA/SC ratio increases from 1.2470 to 1.2516; CFR China PX drops from 838 to 834; PX - naphtha spread rises from 241 to 250 [2] - PTA's main futures price rises from 4696 yuan/ton to 4706 yuan/ton, spot price from 4715 yuan/ton to 4720 yuan/ton, spot processing fee from 176.7 yuan/ton to 211.5 yuan/ton, and disk processing fee from 172.7 yuan/ton to 202.5 yuan/ton. PTA's main basis rises from 9 to 11, and the number of PTA warehouse receipts decreases from 41840 to 40760 [2] - MEG's main futures price rises from 4322 yuan/ton to 4351 yuan/ton, MEG - naphtha from (105.84) yuan/ton to (105.03) yuan/ton, MEG inner - market price drops from 4408 to 4400, and the main basis drops from 72 to 70 [2] Industry Chain Start - up - PX start - up rate remains at 78.98%, PTA start - up rate at 80.59%, MEG start - up rate rises from 54.86% to 56.65%, and polyester load remains at 87.15% [2] Polyester Product Data - In polyester filament, POY150D/48F price drops from 6590 to 6570, POY cash flow from (168) to (190); FDY150D/96F price remains at 6815, FDY cash flow from (443) to (445); DTY150D/48F price remains at 7890, DTY cash flow from (68) to (70). Filament production and sales rise from 36% to 41% [2] - In polyester staple fiber, 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple price remains at 6680, staple fiber cash flow from 272 to 270, and short - fiber production and sales rise from 40% to 44% [2] - In polyester chips, semi - bright chip price drops from 5785 to 5770, chip cash flow from (73) to (90), and chip production and sales rise from 32% to 63% [2] Device Maintenance - A 1.5 - million - ton PTA device in East China restarts after parking for maintenance around May 6th, and a 3 - million - ton PTA device in East China stops for maintenance recently, expected to last about 10 days [2]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an energy and chemical options strategy morning report dated July 17, 2025, covering various energy and chemical options including energy, polyolefins, polyesters, alkali chemicals, etc [2][3] - The recommended strategy is to construct option portfolio strategies mainly as sellers, along with spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3] Group 2: Underlying Futures Market Overview - The report provides the latest prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of multiple underlying futures contracts such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), methanol, etc [4] Group 3: Option Factor - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The report presents the volume and open interest PCR data of various options, along with their changes, which are used to describe the strength of the underlying option market and the turning point of the market [5] Group 4: Option Factor - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of various options are analyzed based on the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options [6] Group 5: Option Factor - Implied Volatility - The report shows the implied volatility data of various options, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its changes, as well as the difference between implied and historical volatility [7] Group 6: Strategy and Recommendations for Different Options Energy Options Crude Oil - Fundamental analysis: OPEC+ increased oil supply in July, and US shale oil production recovered. The short - term market is weak [8] - Option factor research: Implied volatility fluctuates around the mean, open interest PCR indicates increasing short - selling power, pressure level is 500, and support level is 510 [8] - Strategy recommendations: Construct a neutral call + put option selling strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [8] LPG - Fundamental analysis: Global supply divergence decreases, demand from the blending market is uncertain, and PDH profit has recovered [10] - Option factor research: Implied volatility fluctuates around the historical mean, open interest PCR indicates increasing short - selling power, pressure level is 5100, and support level is 4000 [10] - Strategy recommendations: Construct a bearish call + put option selling strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] Alcohol Options Methanol - Fundamental analysis: Domestic methanol production is expected to increase after maintenance, and port inventory is accumulating [10] - Option factor research: Implied volatility is below the historical mean, open interest PCR indicates a weak - oscillating market, pressure level is 2950, and support level is 2200 [10] - Strategy recommendations: Construct a neutral call + put option selling strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] Ethylene Glycol - Fundamental analysis: Port inventory is accumulating, and the de - stocking process will slow down [11] - Option factor research: Implied volatility fluctuates around the historical mean, open interest PCR indicates a weak market, pressure level is 4350, and support level is 4300 [11] - Strategy recommendations: Construct a volatility - selling strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] Polyolefin Options Polypropylene - Fundamental analysis: PP trade inventory is accumulating, and port inventory is decreasing [11] - Option factor research: Implied volatility fluctuates around the historical mean, open interest PCR indicates a weak market, pressure level is 7500, and support level is 6800 [11] - Strategy recommendations: Use a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] Rubber Options Rubber - Fundamental analysis: The price of natural rubber has rebounded, but downstream demand is weak [12] - Option factor research: Implied volatility fluctuates around the mean, open interest PCR is below 0.6, pressure level is 15000, and support level is 13000 [12] - Strategy recommendations: Construct a neutral call + put option selling strategy for volatility [12] Polyester Options PTA - Fundamental analysis: PTA production load has increased, and the maintenance season is over [13] - Option factor research: Implied volatility fluctuates around the mean, open interest PCR is below 0.8, pressure level is 5000, and support level is 3800 [13] - Strategy recommendations: Construct a neutral call + put option selling strategy for volatility [13] Alkali Chemical Options Caustic Soda - Fundamental analysis: The average utilization rate of caustic soda production capacity has slightly decreased [14] - Option factor research: Implied volatility fluctuates around the mean, open interest PCR is around 0.8, pressure level is 3400, and support level is 2200 [14] - Strategy recommendations: Use a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14] Soda Ash - Fundamental analysis: Domestic soda ash inventory has accumulated, and enterprise shipments have slowed down [14] - Option factor research: Implied volatility fluctuates around the historical mean, open interest PCR is below 0.5, pressure level is 2080, and support level is 1100 [14] - Strategy recommendations: Construct a bearish spread strategy for direction, a bearish call + put option selling strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14] Urea Options - Fundamental analysis: The supply - demand gap has decreased, and the market has strengthened after a short - term decline [15] - Option factor research: Implied volatility is below the historical mean, open interest PCR is below 0.8, pressure level is 1900, and support level is 1700 [15] - Strategy recommendations: Construct a neutral call + put option selling strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [15]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Acrylonitrile: ☆☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of various chemical products, including price trends, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on these factors [2][3][4] Summary by Product Methanol - The main contract of methanol fluctuates narrowly within the range. Import arrivals have increased significantly, and port inventories have accumulated rapidly. Some domestic enterprises may postpone autumn maintenance due to good profits. The domestic supply supports the market, and attention should be paid to macro and downstream device changes [2] Urea - The urea futures market is oscillating strongly. Supply remains sufficient, and agricultural demand is approaching the end of the peak season. Upstream inventories are shifting to downstream and ports. The market is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations with the possible release of a new export quota [3] Polyolefins - Polyolefin futures closed down slightly, showing a weak trend. For polyethylene, the reduction of device maintenance increases pressure, and downstream demand is weak. For polypropylene, high - level device maintenance provides some support, but weak demand still suppresses the market [4] Pure Benzene - Crude oil is oscillating. The spot price of pure benzene in East China has slightly declined, while the forward price has risen slightly. There is still supply pressure, with a seasonal improvement expected in the mid - to - late third quarter and pressure in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to operate on the monthly spread and short at high prices based on the long - term bearish view of oil prices [6] Styrene - Styrene futures are weakly sorted. The开工 load is at a high level, and port inventories are accumulating. Market supply is sufficient, while downstream demand is mainly based on digesting existing raw materials, and spot trading is poor [7] Polyester - PX and PTA prices fluctuate narrowly. PX supply - demand has improved, but weak PTA demand drags it down. PTA has an upward repair drive due to low processing margins. For ethylene glycol, short - term long - position allocation is recommended if large domestic devices implement maintenance. Short fiber shows some demand resilience and can be treated bullishly, while bottle chip orders are weakening [8] Chlor - alkali - PVC is running weakly. New device production increases supply, and downstream demand is weak, with inventory accumulation. Caustic soda is under pressure at a high level, with poor high - price sales and general non - aluminum downstream demand [9] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass fluctuates narrowly. Industry profits have slightly increased, but processing orders are weak. Soda ash is oscillating weakly, with inventory accumulation and high - level production. The photovoltaic industry's planned production cuts may affect the market [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, for each individual energy and chemical product, the ratings are as follows: - Crude oil: Oscillating [1] - Fuel oil: Oscillating [2] - Asphalt: Oscillating [2] - Polyester: Oscillating [2][4] - Rubber: Oscillating [4] - Methanol: Oscillating [5] - Polyolefin: Oscillating [5] - Polyvinyl chloride: Oscillating [5][6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices are affected by factors such as tariff policies and inventory changes, and are expected to continue oscillating [1]. - The fuel oil market is mainly driven by the cost - end crude oil, with the LU - FU spread reaching a high level this year, and attention should be paid to the short - selling opportunity [2]. - The asphalt market is affected by supply and demand factors and follows the cost - end crude oil for narrow - range fluctuations [2]. - The polyester market is under pressure due to factors such as weak terminal demand and inventory accumulation [4]. - The rubber market is affected by export volume and production, and is expected to oscillate weakly [4]. - The methanol market is expected to return to an oscillating trend due to factors such as device load and downstream profit [5]. - The polyolefin market has limited supply changes, and demand is at the bottom, with prices expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [5]. - The PVC market has limited fundamental changes, and the upward rebound space is not large [5][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude oil**: On Tuesday, oil prices fell again. API data showed an increase in US crude oil and refined product inventories. Trump's tariff measures may suppress oil prices. However, domestic energy production and processing have positive trends, and oil prices are expected to oscillate [1]. - **Fuel oil**: The main contracts of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil fell. The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil weakened slightly, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market remained stable. It is expected to follow the cost - end crude oil for oscillation, and attention can be paid to the short - selling opportunity of the LU - FU spread [2]. - **Asphalt**: The main asphalt contract fell slightly. The adjustment of the fuel oil and diluted asphalt consumption tax deduction policy has not yet shown an impact. Supply has decreased, and demand has support. It is expected to follow the cost - end crude oil for narrow - range fluctuations [2]. - **Polyester**: The prices of PTA, EG, and PX futures fell. The downstream demand is weak, the inventory of polyester factories is increasing, and the prices of polyester products are under pressure [2][4]. - **Rubber**: The prices of some rubber varieties fluctuated. The rubber export volume in Cote d'Ivoire increased in the first half of 2025, and the rubber price is expected to oscillate weakly [4]. - **Methanol**: The price of methanol is affected by factors such as device load and downstream profit, and is expected to return to an oscillating trend [5]. - **Polyolefin**: The prices of polyolefin products are affected by supply and demand. Supply changes are limited, demand is at the bottom, and prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [5]. - **Polyvinyl chloride**: The PVC market price has a narrow - range adjustment. Although demand has not improved significantly, the fundamentals have not deteriorated further, and the upward rebound space is limited [5][6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on July 16, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes, as well as the percentile of the latest basis rate in historical data [7]. 3.3 Market News - Trump plans to impose a 30% tariff on most imported goods from the EU and Mexico starting from August 1, which may suppress global fuel demand and oil prices [1][9]. - API data shows that as of the week of July 11, US API crude oil and refined product inventories increased [1][9]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, etc. [11][13][15] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It includes the basis charts of various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc., showing the basis changes over time [29][33][37] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It shows the spread charts of different contracts of fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc., reflecting the price differences between different contract periods [44][46][49] - **4.4 Inter - product Spreads**: It includes the spread and ratio charts between different products, such as the spread between crude oil internal and external markets, the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [61][63][65] - **4.5 Production Profits**: It presents the cash - flow chart of ethylene - based ethylene glycol production and the production profit chart of PP, etc. [70]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Commodity sentiment has warmed up. PTA has strengthened in the context of supply - side contraction. Although the polyester downstream load remains at 90% despite the expectation of reduced load, the actual polyester production has reached a new high. In July, bottle chips and staple fibers are about to enter the maintenance cycle. PTA spot is becoming looser, and the market spot arrival volume has increased. Due to profit compression, the polyester replenishment willingness is not high. The maintenance of the Northeast PX plant and the Zhejiang reforming unit has been postponed [2]. - For ethylene glycol, coal prices have rebounded slightly, and commodity sentiment has clearly warmed up. However, the later arrival volume is large. Polyester production and sales have weakened, and polyester has entered the maintenance cycle. The rapid rise in polyester prices has compressed downstream weaving profits, and the terminal load has significantly declined, which has a certain negative impact on the market [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price rose from 513.9 yuan/barrel on July 11, 2025, to 527.5 yuan/barrel on July 14, 2025, an increase of 13.60 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA - SC**: The PTA - SC price difference decreased from 965.4 yuan/ton to 906.6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 58.83 yuan/ton; the PTA/SC ratio decreased from 1.2585 to 1.2365, a decrease of 0.0220 [2]. - **PX**: CFR China PX price rose from 837 to 852, an increase of 15; the PX - naphtha price difference rose from 253 to 268, an increase of 15 [2]. - **PTA**: The PTA主力期价 rose from 4700 yuan/ton to 4740 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton; the PTA spot price rose from 4710 to 4735, an increase of 25 yuan/ton; the spot processing fee decreased from 193.5 yuan/ton to 136.6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 57.0 yuan/ton; the disk processing fee decreased from 183.5 yuan/ton to 141.6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 42.0 yuan/ton; the main basis increased from 0 to 8, an increase of 8; the PTA warehouse receipt quantity decreased from 43274 to 43190, a decrease of 84 [2]. - **MEG**: The MEG主力期价 rose from 4305 yuan/ton to 4357 yuan/ton, an increase of 52.0 yuan/ton; the MEG - naphtha price difference increased from (111.24) yuan/ton to (105.43) yuan/ton, an increase of 5.8 yuan/ton; the MEG domestic price rose from 4384 to 4398, an increase of 14.0 yuan/ton; the main basis decreased from 72 to 70, a decrease of 2.0 [2]. - **Industrial Chain开工情况**: The PX, PTA, and MEG开工 rates remained unchanged at 78.98%, 80.59%, and 54.86% respectively, while the polyester load increased from 86.87% to 87.15%, an increase of 0.28% [2]. - **Polyester Products**: POY150D/48F price decreased from 6645 to 6590, a decrease of 55.0; POY cash flow decreased from (101) to (182), a decrease of 81.0; FDY150D/96F price decreased from 6925 to 6935, a decrease of 90.0; FDY cash flow decreased from (321) to (437), a decrease of 116.0; DTY150D/48F price decreased from 7895 to 7890, a decrease of 5.0; DTY cash flow decreased from (51) to (82), a decrease of 31.0; the long - filament production and sales rate increased from 35% to 37%, an increase of 2%; 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6700 to 6685, a decrease of 15; polyester staple fiber cash flow decreased from 304 to 263, a decrease of 41.0; the staple fiber production and sales rate increased from 41% to 73%, an increase of 32%; semi - bright chip price increased from 5795 to 5800, an increase of 5.0; chip cash flow decreased from (51) to (72), a decrease of 21.0; the chip production and sales rate increased from 62% to 144%, an increase of 82% [2]. Device Maintenance - A 1.5 - million - ton PTA device in East China has been restarted after being shut down for maintenance around May 6. A 3 - million - ton PTA device in East China has recently been shut down for maintenance, with an expected maintenance period of about 10 days [2].

Group 1: Polyolefin Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints PP and PE both show a supply contraction trend, with compressed weighted profits. Methanol and monomers are weak, and marginal profits are recovering. Static supply and demand are both decreasing, inventory is accumulating, and apparent demand is weakening. Dynamically, the supply pressure in July is not significant, and the overall pressure still exists, but inventory reduction has improved in July. For unilateral strategies, both PP and PE lack strong drivers, and range - bound operations are recommended. For arbitrage, LP can be taken profit at around 250 [2]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: L2601, PP2601 prices increased slightly, while L2509, PP2509 prices decreased slightly. The spreads between different contracts and the basis of some varieties also changed. For example, the spread of L2509 - 2601 decreased by 130.77%, and the spread of PP2509 - 2601 decreased by 100% [2]. - **Inventory and开工率**: PE and PP inventories are accumulating. The PE device operating rate decreased by 2.10%, and the PP device operating rate decreased by 1.1%. The downstream weighted operating rates of both also decreased slightly [2]. Group 2: Crude Oil Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints Crude oil futures prices are under pressure, mainly due to the game between geopolitical sanctions expectations and macro - demand concerns. The market focus has shifted from geopolitical supply disturbances to the actual impact of trade policies on demand. In the short term, oil prices are still dominated by macro uncertainties. It is recommended to adopt short - term band strategies, and capture opportunities for increased volatility on the options side [6]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent, WTI, and SC futures prices decreased. The spreads between different contracts and different varieties also changed. For example, Brent - WTI increased by 0.90%, and SC - Brent increased by 24.50% [6]. - **Product Oil Prices and Spreads**: Most product oil prices decreased, and the cracking spreads of some product oils also changed. For example, the US gasoline cracking spread decreased by 0.25%, and the Singapore diesel cracking spread increased by 4.43% [6]. Group 3: Polyester Industry Chain Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - **PX**: PX rebound is under pressure, but there is support at low levels. PX09 is expected to operate in the range of 6600 - 6900 in the short term, and opportunities to expand the PX - SC spread at low levels can be focused on [10]. - **PTA**: PTA supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the absolute price rebound is under pressure. TA is expected to oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4800 in the short term, and short - selling strategies can be considered above 4800 [10]. - **MEG**: The supply - demand of ethylene glycol is gradually turning to be loose, and the price is expected to oscillate and consolidate in the short term. EG09 can be observed unilaterally, focusing on the pressure around 4400 [10]. - **Short - fiber**: The supply - demand of short - fiber is weak, and the processing fee repair space is limited. The absolute price fluctuates with raw materials. Strategies mainly focus on expanding the processing fee at low levels on the PF disk [10]. - **Bottle - chip**: The supply - demand of bottle - chip has improvement expectations, but the absolute price still fluctuates with the cost side. PR strategies are similar to PTA, and opportunities to expand the processing fee at the lower edge of the range can be focused on [10]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil decreased. The prices and spreads of PX, PTA, MEG, and other products also changed. For example, the PX spot price (in RMB) increased by 1.6%, and the PTA spot processing fee decreased by 23.9% [10]. - **开工率**: The operating rates of Asian PX, PTA, MEG, and some downstream industries changed. For example, the Asian PX operating rate decreased by 0.5%, and the PTA operating rate increased by 2.0% [10]. Group 4: Chlor - alkali Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda market is expected to be strong in the short term. The supply - demand contradiction is limited, and the high profit stimulates high production. The transaction activity between alumina plants and traders has increased, and the short - term macro - sentiment is strong [14][15]. - **PVC**: The PVC market is weakly sorted. The current supply - demand pattern is in the off - season of increasing supply and decreasing demand, and the fundamentals have not improved significantly. Although the macro - atmosphere has improved, it is difficult to see a significant price decline in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [14][15]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of caustic soda and PVC products changed. For example, the price of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda increased by 2.4%, and the price of V2509 increased by 0.6% [14]. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda production rate is high, and the downstream operating rates of some industries have changed slightly. The PVC production rate is relatively stable, and the downstream product operating rates are decreasing, and the inventory is slightly accumulating [14][15]. Group 5: Styrene Industry Chain Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - **Pure Benzene**: In the short term, pure benzene has rebounded, but its own driving force is limited. The import expectation is high, and the port inventory is at a high level. The price transmission of some downstream products is not smooth, which may limit the rebound space. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally and adopt the reverse - spread strategy for the month - spread [38]. - **Styrene**: The styrene industry is operating at a high level, but the supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the port inventory is increasing. Although the absolute price is supported by the strong oil price and the commodity market atmosphere, the increase is limited. EB08 should focus on the pressure above 7500, and high - short opportunities can be considered [38]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil decreased. The prices and spreads of pure benzene, styrene, and downstream products also changed. For example, the price of styrene in East China increased by 0.3%, and the EB cash flow (non - integrated) decreased by 28.9% [38]. - **Inventory and开工率**: The inventory of pure benzene and styrene in East China ports increased. The operating rates of Asian pure benzene, domestic pure benzene, and styrene also changed slightly [38]. Group 6: Methanol Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints The inland methanol market has limited short - term decline space due to the support of centralized maintenance in July. The port market is facing dual pressures: the复产 of Iranian plants is continuing, and the import in July is expected to reach 1.2 million tons; at the same time, the planned maintenance of coastal MTO will weaken the olefin demand, and the port is expected to turn to slight inventory accumulation in July, and the price suppression is significantly enhanced [41]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of methanol contracts and spot prices changed. For example, MA2601 increased by 0.82%, and the price of Inner Mongolia's north - line spot decreased by 0.75% [41]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Methanol inventories are accumulating. The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 4.11%, and the downstream external - purchase MTO device operating rate decreased by 0.50% [41]. Group 7: Urea Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints The urea futures price has declined, mainly due to the superposition of the expectation of loose supply and short - term weakening demand. The daily production is maintained at a high level, and the demand for agricultural summer top - dressing is coming to an end, and industrial demand is restricted by high temperatures. Although the export policy is relaxed and the Indian tender price has increased, the short - term export orders have not fully alleviated the domestic inventory pressure. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [48]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of urea contracts and spot prices changed. For example, the price of Shandong (small particles) decreased by 2.15% [48]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of urea is abundant, and the demand is weakening. The daily production remains high, and the agricultural and industrial demands are both decreasing. The inventory in ports is increasing, while the inventory in factories is decreasing [48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current geopolitical risks in the crude oil market remain uncertain. Although OPEC has increased production slightly more than expected, the fundamentals are still in a tight - balance, with the market in a long - short game between strong reality and weak expectations. Investors are advised to control risks and wait and see [2]. - For methanol, the upstream maintenance has increased, and the start - up rate has fallen from a high level. The demand side is weak, and the spot valuation is still high. In the off - season, the upside space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - Regarding urea, the domestic supply and demand are acceptable, the price has support at the bottom, but the upside space is also limited by high supply. It is more advisable to pay attention to short - long opportunities on dips [4]. - For rubber, NR and RU have risen significantly, but they should guard against the risk of correction. The overall tire start - up rate is relatively high, and it is recommended to maintain a long - term bullish view in the second half of the year, with a neutral - to - long or neutral short - term view [7][8][10]. - For PVC, the supply is strong and the demand is weak. The disk's main logic is the transition from destocking to stockpiling. Although it has strengthened recently following the black building materials sector, it will still face pressure in the future [12]. - For benzene - ethylene, there are different views from both long and short sides. The short - term geopolitical impact has subsided, and the price is expected to fluctuate following the cost side [13][14]. - For polyethylene, the price is expected to fluctuate due to global trade policy uncertainties and seasonal off - season factors [17]. - For polypropylene, the price is expected to be bearish in July due to the supply - demand weakness in the seasonal off - season [18]. - For PX, after the end of the maintenance season, the load remains high. In the third quarter, due to the commissioning of new PTA plants, it is expected to continue destocking. It is recommended to pay attention to long opportunities on dips following crude oil [20][21]. - For PTA, the supply is expected to increase, and the demand is under pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to long opportunities on dips following PX [22]. - For ethylene glycol, the Saudi plant's unexpected situation is expected to make it run strongly in the short term, but the fundamentals are weak in the long term [23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Situation**: WTI主力原油期货收跌1.92美元，跌幅2.79%，报66.83美元；布伦特主力原油期货收跌1.49美元，跌幅2.11%，报69.14美元；INE主力原油期货收涨13.60元，涨幅2.65%，报527.5元 [5]. - **Data**: China's weekly crude oil data shows that the crude oil arrival inventory increased by 0.75 million barrels to 206.30 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 0.36%. Gasoline commercial inventory increased by 1.86 million barrels to 89.83 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 2.12%. Diesel commercial inventory increased by 1.76 million barrels to 102.59 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 1.75%. Total refined oil commercial inventory increased by 3.63 million barrels to 192.42 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 1.92% [5]. Methanol - **Market Situation**: On July 14, the 09 contract rose by 26 yuan/ton, reporting 2396 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose by 12 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 16 [2]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Upstream maintenance has increased, and the start - up rate has fallen from a high level. The overseas device start - up rate has returned to the middle - high level. The demand side is in the off - season, with the port olefin load reduction and the traditional demand start - up rate falling [2]. Urea - **Market Situation**: On July 14, the 09 contract fell by 9 yuan/ton, reporting 1764 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell by 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 46 [4]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The domestic start - up rate has increased slightly, with a daily output of 19.9 tons. The demand side, such as compound fertilizer start - up rate, has bottomed out and rebounded, and the export collection is still continuing [4]. Rubber - **Market Situation**: NR and RU have risen significantly [7]. - **Industry Data**: As of July 10, 2025, the full - steel tire start - up load of Shandong tire enterprises was 64.54%, 0.81 percentage points higher than last week and 5.59 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The semi - steel tire start - up load of domestic tire enterprises was 72.55%, 2.51 percentage points higher than last week and 6.36 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of June 29, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 129.3 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.7 tons, an increase of 0.6% [8]. PVC - **Market Situation**: The PVC09 contract rose by 30 yuan, reporting 5010 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4850 (- 10) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 160 (- 40) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 113 (- 1) yuan/ton [12]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The overall start - up rate of PVC this week was 77%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5%. The demand side was weak, and the domestic start - up rate was still lower than in previous years and was gradually entering the off - season. Exports were expected to weaken [12]. Benzene - Ethylene - **Market Situation**: Spot prices and futures prices have risen, and the basis has weakened [14]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The cost side of pure benzene start - up rate has increased, and the supply is relatively abundant. The supply side of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation profit has decreased, but the benzene - ethylene start - up rate has continued to rise. The port inventory has increased, and the demand side is in the seasonal off - season [14]. Polyethylene - **Market Situation**: Futures prices have fallen [17]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Global trade policy uncertainties have returned. The spot price has fallen, and the PE valuation has limited downward space. The trader inventory is fluctuating at a high level, and the demand side is in the seasonal off - season [17]. Polypropylene - **Market Situation**: Futures prices have fallen [18]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the start - up rate is expected to gradually recover. The demand side is in the seasonal off - season, with the downstream start - up rate seasonally fluctuating downward [18]. PX - **Market Situation**: The PX09 contract rose by 84 yuan, reporting 6778 yuan. The PX CFR rose by 15 dollars, reporting 852 dollars, and the basis was 243 (+ 42) yuan, with the 9 - 1 spread of 94 (+ 20) yuan [20]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: China's PX load was 81.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.3%. Asian load was 73.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5%. The PTA load was 79.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5% [20]. PTA - **Market Situation**: The PTA09 contract rose by 40 yuan, reporting 4740 yuan. The East China spot price rose by 25 yuan, reporting 4735 yuan, with a basis of 8 (+ 8) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 40 (+ 2) yuan [22]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The PTA load was 79.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5%. The downstream load was 88.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.4% [22]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Situation**: The EG09 contract rose by 52 yuan, reporting 4357 yuan. The East China spot price rose by 14 yuan, reporting 4398 yuan, with a basis of 67 (+ 2), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 12 (+ 14) yuan [23]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The ethylene glycol load was 68.1%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5%. The downstream load was 88.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.4%. The port inventory decreased by 2.7 tons to 55.3 tons [23].