1. Report Sector Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - For silver (AG) options, the ag2606 contract closed at 17,085 yuan yesterday, up 2.50% from the previous day. The implied volatility of AG options fluctuated above the mean of 0.4703. The AG option position PCR was at 0.7638, at the 0.41% level in the past year. The pressure level of the AG option underlying is 37,600, and the support level is 15,000 [6]. - For gold (AU) options, the au2604 contract closed at 977.28 yuan yesterday, down 1.57% from the previous day. The implied volatility of AU options fluctuated above the mean of 0.2734. The AU option position PCR was at 0.5648, at the 7.76% level in the past year. The pressure level of the AU option underlying is 1,200, and the support level is 904 [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Silver (AG) Options 3.1.1 Underlying Futures Market Data - The AG (silver option) with the aa2606 contract had a trading volume of 18,111, a change of 1,197 (7.04%), a trading volume of 967,928 (in ten thousand lots), a change of -279,965, an open interest of 214,737 (in ten thousand lots), and a change of 3,102 [3]. 3.1.2 Option Factor - Volume and Position PCR - For AG (silver call options), the trading volume was 591,150, with a change of 75,295; the open interest was 60,192, with a change of -101,921; the trading volume PCR was 0.84, with a change of -0.22; the open interest PCR was 0.65, with a change of -0.12 [4]. - For AG (silver put options), the trading volume was 495,306, with a change of -48,790; the open interest was 39,029, with a change of -84,795 [4]. 3.1.3 Option Factor - Pressure and Support - The pressure level of the AG option underlying is 37,600, and the support level is 15,000 [6]. 3.1.4 Option Strategy Recommendations - Directional strategy: Construct a bear spread strategy with put options to obtain directional returns [7]. - Volatility strategy: Construct a strategy of selling call + put options to obtain option time - value returns, and dynamically adjust the position to keep the position delta neutral, such as S_AG2606P16000, S_AG2606C18000 [7]. 3.2 Gold (AU) Options 3.2.1 Underlying Futures Market Data - The AU (gold option) with the au2606 contract had a trading volume of 1013.96, a change of 34.72 (3.54%), a trading volume of 317,182 (in ten thousand lots), a change of 317,182, an open interest of 169,532 (in ten thousand lots), and a change of 9,618 [15]. 3.2.2 Option Factor - Volume and Position PCR - For AU (gold call options), the trading volume was 175,282, with a change of 1,199; the open interest was 38,187, with a change of -37,944; the trading volume PCR was 0.77, with a change of -0.32; the open interest PCR was 0.49, with a change of -0.08 [16]. - For AU (gold put options), the trading volume was 134,683, with a change of -54,105; the open interest was 18,591, with a change of -24,410 [16]. 3.2.3 Option Factor - Pressure and Support - The pressure level of the AU option underlying is 1,200, and the support level is 904 [18]. 3.2.4 Option Strategy Recommendations - Directional strategy: Construct a bear spread strategy with put options to obtain directional returns [19]. - Volatility strategy: None [19].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2026-03-27原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2605： 1.基本面：美国总统特朗普周四表示，应伊朗政府请求，他将暂停对伊朗能源设施的袭击10天，并称与德黑兰的 谈判进展"非常顺利"；华尔街日报引述和平谈判调解者的谈话报导称，伊朗并未提出对其能源设施暂停袭击10 天的要求，也尚未就结束战争的15点计划作出最终回应；据美国国防部知情官员透露，五角大楼正考虑向中东增 派多达1万人的地面部队，以便在特朗普权衡与伊朗和谈之际，为其提供更多军事选择；俄罗斯副总理诺瓦克表示， 如有必要，该国可能会重新实施汽油出口禁令；中性 2.基差：3月26日，阿曼原油现货价为113.48 ...

Group 1: Report Core Views - Trump will visit China from May 14th to 15th for a state - visit and meet with President Xi Jinping, and China is in communication about this [3] - Trump postpones the strike on Iranian energy facilities by 10 days to April 6, 2026, 8 p.m. EST, and the U.S. military action against Iran continues [3] - OECD predicts the global economic growth rate to be 2.9% in 2026 and 3% in 2027, with the U.S. economic growth slowing from 2% in 2026 to 1.7% in 2027 and inflation reaching 4.2% this year [3] - SHFE limits the maximum number of intraday opening positions for the EC2703 contract of the container shipping index (European line) futures to 50 lots, with a daily limit of 20%, and margin ratios of 22% for both hedging and general positions [4] - The U.S. soybean inventory is expected to be 2.063 billion bushels, an 8% increase from 2025, and corn inventory to be 9.036 billion bushels, a 10.9% increase from 2025 [4] Group 2: Night - Market Performance of Key Commodities - Focus on urea, coking coal, pure benzene, crude oil, and PP [5] - The night - market performance of different commodity sectors shows that non - metallic building materials rose 2.66%, precious metals 25.73%, oilseeds 8.93%, soft commodities 2.54%, non - ferrous metals 22.82%, coal - coking - steel - minerals 10.05%, energy 7.71%, chemicals 15.43%, grains 1.09%, and agricultural and sideline products 3.04% [5] Group 3: Commodity Futures Plate Positions - The changes in the positions of commodity futures plates in the past five days are presented, including Wind agricultural and sideline products, Wind grains, Wind chemicals, etc. [6] Group 4: Performance of Major Asset Classes - In the equity category, the Shanghai Composite Index had a daily decline of 1.09%, a monthly decline of 6.58%, and a year - to - date decline of 2.01%. Other indices also had different degrees of decline or increase [7] - In the fixed - income category, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures had different performance in daily, monthly, and year - to - date changes [7] - In the commodity category, the CRB commodity index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, and Wind commodity index had different performance [7] - In other categories, the U.S. dollar index and CBOE volatility had different performance [7] Group 5: Main Commodity Trends - The trends of various commodities such as the Baltic Dry Index, CRB spot index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, London spot silver, LME copper, CBOT soybeans, and CBOT corn are presented [8]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪镍**: The external market has declined and continues to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average. Supply is sufficient with increased production scheduling in March and rising domestic inventories. The nickel ore price is rising, and the RKAB policy in Indonesia is having an impact. The nickel - iron price is weakly stable, stainless steel inventory is slightly decreasing, and new - energy vehicle sales data is in line with expectations but with a large month - on - month decline in the off - season. The overall view is bearish, but the basis is bullish, and the main position is net long with an increase in long positions. The conclusion is that SHFE Nickel 2605 will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [2]. - **不锈钢**: The spot stainless - steel price remains flat. The nickel ore price is firm, the nickel - iron price is weakly stable, and the cost line provides strong support. The stainless - steel inventory is slightly decreasing, and the demand is weak. The overall view is neutral, the basis is bullish, and the price is above the 20 - day moving average with an upward - sloping 20 - day moving average. The conclusion is that Stainless Steel 2605 will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Nickel and Stainless - Steel Price Overview - **Futures Prices**: On March 26, the SHFE nickel main contract was at 135,860, down 270 from March 25; the LME nickel was at 17,165, down 180; the stainless - steel main contract was at 14,390, down 100. The nickel index was at 135,950, down 100, and the cold - rolled index was at 13,837, down 153 [10]. - **Spot Prices**: SMM1 electrolytic nickel was at 139,350 on March 26, up 1550; 1 Jinchuan nickel was at 142,050, up 1050; 1 imported nickel was at 136,450, up 1750; nickel beans were at 139,100, up 1800. Cold - rolled 304*2B prices in different regions remained unchanged [10]. Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventories - **As of March 20**: The SHFE nickel inventory was 63,661 tons, with the futures inventory at 56,690 tons. The futures inventory increased by 228 tons, and the overall inventory decreased by 20 tons [12]. - **On March 26**: LME nickel inventory was 282,240, down 216; SHFE nickel warehouse receipts were 57,593, down 12; the total inventory was 339,833, down 228 [13]. Stainless - Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventories - **As of March 20**: Wuxi inventory was 598,700 tons, Foshan inventory was 380,600 tons, and the national inventory was 1,127,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15,000 tons. The 300 - series inventory was 693,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13,400 tons [17]. - **On March 26**: The stainless - steel warehouse receipts were 45,676, an increase of 2139 from March 25 [18]. Nickel Ore and Nickel - Iron Prices - **Nickel Ore**: On March 26, the CIF price of red - soil nickel ore with Ni1.5% was 79.5 dollars/wet ton, down 0.5; Ni0.9% was 35 dollars/wet ton, unchanged. The shipping costs from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port decreased [21]. - **Nickel - Iron**: The price of high - nickel wet ton (8 - 12) was 1085.52 yuan/nickel point, up 0.15; the price of low - nickel wet ton (below 2) was 3650 yuan/ton, unchanged [21]. Stainless - Steel Production Cost - The traditional cost was 14,146, the scrap - steel production cost was 14,086, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost was 17,977 [23]. Nickel Import Cost The import price was converted to 134,277 yuan/ton [25].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not available Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the aluminum industry are neutral, with carbon neutrality controlling capacity expansion, domestic supply reaching its ceiling, weak downstream demand, and a continued slump in the real - estate market, as well as volatile short - term macro - sentiment [2]. - The basis shows a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 35,619 tons to 452,044 tons last week, remaining neutral. The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average while the 20 - day moving average is upward, also neutral. The main positions are net long and the long positions are increasing, which is bullish [2]. - In the long run, carbon neutrality will drive changes in the aluminum industry and is bullish for aluminum prices. However, macro - sentiment is volatile, and attention should be paid to Middle East events [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - The fundamental situation of aluminum is neutral, with carbon neutrality limiting capacity expansion, weak downstream demand, and changeable short - term macro - sentiment. The basis is bearish, inventory is neutral, the price trend is neutral, and the main positions are bullish. Long - term carbon neutrality is bullish for aluminum prices, and attention should be paid to macro - events [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - Bullish factors include carbon neutrality controlling capacity expansion, geopolitical disturbances in Russia and Ukraine affecting Russian aluminum supply, and potential interest rate cuts [3]. - Bearish factors are the unoptimistic global economy, high aluminum prices suppressing downstream consumption, and the cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum products [3]. Daily Summary - Shanghai's spot price was 70,770 yesterday, down 375; today it is 70,870, down 400. Nanchu's spot price was 70,690, down 450. The SHFE inventory increased by 29,728 tons to 136,300 tons this week, and the LME inventory decreased by 425 tons to 74,750 tons [4]. Supply - Demand Balance - The supply - demand balance of aluminum in China from 2018 - 2024 shows that there was a supply shortage from 2018 - 2023, and a supply surplus is expected in 2024. In 2024, the production is 43.1227 million tons, the net import is 1.9616 million tons, the apparent consumption is 45.025 million tons, the actual consumption is 44.875 million tons, and the supply - demand balance is 0.15 million tons [24].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint of the Report - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai zinc futures show a volatile rebound, closing with a positive line, an increase in trading volume, and both long and short positions increasing, with the short positions increasing more. Overall, it was a volume - driven rebound. The price rebounded with long positions slowly entering the market, while short positions actively suppressed. The market may experience short - term volatile consolidation. Technically, the price closed below the long - term moving average with weak support from the moving average. The short - term KDJ indicator rose and operated in the weak area. The trend indicator rose, with the long - position strength increasing and the short - position strength decreasing, and the dominance of the short - position strength narrowing. The operation suggestion is that the Shanghai zinc ZN2605 will experience volatile consolidation [19]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Information - In November 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.197 million tons, consumption was 1.168 million tons, with a supply surplus of 29,000 tons. From January to November, global zinc plate production was 12.7561 million tons, consumption was 13.1065 million tons, with a supply shortage of 350,400 tons. In November, global zinc ore production was 1.069 million tons, and from January to November, it was 12.1419 million tons [2]. 2. Basis - The spot price was 22,890, and the basis was +180 [2]. 3. Inventory - On March 26, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 825 tons to 115,650 tons compared to the previous day, and the SHFE zinc inventory warrants decreased by 1,078 tons to 97,392 tons compared to the previous day [2]. 4. Market Trends - The previous trading day, Shanghai zinc showed a volatile rebound, closing below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was downward [2]. 5. Main Positions - The main positions were net long, and the long positions decreased [2]. 6. Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Quotes on March 26 - The trading volume of zinc futures on March 26 was 145,087 lots, and the total open interest was 181,937 lots, with a decrease of 3,856 lots [3]. 7. Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes on March 26 - The domestic zinc concentrate spot TC was 1,500 yuan/metal ton, and the comprehensive TC for imported zinc concentrate was 20 US dollars/dry ton. The price of 0 zinc in Shanghai was 22,840 - 22,940 yuan/ton, in Guangdong was 22,830 - 22,930 yuan/ton, in Tianjin was 22,795 - 22,895 yuan/ton, and in Zhejiang was 22,825 - 22,925 yuan/ton [4]. 8. National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (2025/3/16 - 2026/3/26) - As of March 26, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in the main domestic markets was 214,400 tons, a decrease of 146,000 tons compared to March 19 and a decrease of 51,000 tons compared to March 23 [5]. 9. Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report on March 26 - The total zinc warrants on the SHFE on March 26 were 97,392 tons, a decrease of 1,078 tons compared to the previous day [6]. 10. LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics on March 26 - The total LME zinc inventory on March 26 was 115,650 tons, a decrease of 825 tons compared to the previous day [8]. 11. National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary on March 26 - Not provided in detail, only the title is given [10]. 12. National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes on March 26 - The prices of 0 zinc from different smelters decreased by 80 yuan/ton [13]. 13. Domestic Refined Zinc Production in February 2026 - The production in February 2026 was 470,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.72% and a year - on - year increase of 10.01%. The planned production in March was 490,200 tons [15]. 14. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes on March 26 - The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee for 50% grade was generally 1,400 - 1,600 yuan/metal ton, and the imported zinc concentrate processing fee for 48% grade was 10 - 30 US dollars/dry ton [17]. 15. Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking on March 26 - The total trading volume of members was 144,805 lots, an increase of 2,074 lots. The total long positions were 68,856 lots, an increase of 641 lots, and the total short positions were 70,600 lots, an increase of 1,948 lots [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints For Coking Coal - The overall supply of coking coal in the main producing areas is sufficient, but with the release of downstream demand and the warming of market sentiment, the inventory of most mines is low, and some tight - supply coal types are in short supply. The online auction market has almost no unsold lots, and all coal types show high - premium transactions. The premium of some high - quality main coking coal has further expanded [2]. - The basis is positive, with the spot price at 1300 and the basis at 70, indicating that the spot is at a premium to the futures [2]. - The total sample inventory of coking coal is 1971 million tons, a decrease of 243 million tons compared with last week. The inventory of steel mills is 820 million tons, port inventory is 258 million tons, and independent coking enterprise inventory is 893 million tons [2]. - The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line. The main position of coking coal is net long, but the long position is decreasing [2]. - With the downstream resuming production, demand increases, and the enthusiasm of downstream buyers has significantly recovered. The spot market sentiment of coking coal and coke has significantly improved. The improvement in terminal finished product transactions and the recent increase in steel prices have boosted the upstream market. It is expected that the coking coal price will be stable with a slight upward trend in the short term [2]. For Coke - Due to the increase in speculative demand and the recovery of steel mills' demand for coke, the current shipment of coking enterprises is good, and the in - plant coke inventory is maintained at a low level. The price increase of the coking coal market has far exceeded expectations, and the online auction price is generally at a high level. Although coking enterprises still have a certain profit space with the support of chemical products, the coke supply is relatively stable [5]. - The basis is negative, with the spot price at 1650 and the basis at - 61, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures [5]. - The total sample inventory of coke is 944 million tons, a decrease of 3 million tons compared with last week. The inventory of steel mills is 689 million tons, port inventory is 199 million tons, and independent coking enterprise inventory is 56 million tons [5]. - The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line. The main position of coke is net long, but the long position is decreasing [6]. - Coking enterprises have smooth shipments, and the coke inventory is maintained at a low level. Coking enterprises have a strong expectation of price increase under profit pressure, but steel prices are fluctuating, and some steel mills have low profits, so they have a certain resistance to the price increase of coke. In the short term, the coking enterprises and steel mills will continue to play a game, and it is expected that the coke price will be stable with a slight upward trend in the short term [5]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Price - On March 26 (17:30), the prices of imported coking coal from Russia and Australia at various ports are provided, including different coal types such as main coking coal, 1/3 coking coal, fat coal, and lean coal, along with their price changes [9]. - On March 26 (17:30), the port metallurgical coke price index shows the prices and price changes of different grades of metallurgical coke from different origins at various ports [10]. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: The coking coal port inventory is 258 million tons, unchanged from last week; the coke port inventory is 199 million tons, a decrease of 6 million tons compared with last week [20]. - **Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises is 893 million tons, a decrease of 225 million tons compared with last week; the coke inventory is 56 million tons, an increase of 12 million tons compared with last week [24]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of steel mills is 820 million tons, a decrease of 18 million tons compared with last week; the coke inventory is 689 million tons, a decrease of 9 million tons compared with last week [29]. Factors Affecting Prices Coking Coal - **Positive Factors**: Iron - water production has increased, and supply is difficult to increase [4]. - **Negative Factors**: Coking and steel enterprises have slowed down the procurement of raw coal, and steel prices are weak [4]. Coke - **Positive Factors**: Iron - water production has increased, and the blast furnace operating rate has increased synchronously [8]. - **Negative Factors**: The profit space of steel mills has been squeezed, and the replenishment demand has been partially overdrawn [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content available. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The OECD expects the global economic growth rate to be 2.9% in 2026 and rise slightly to 3% in 2027. The US economic growth rate is expected to slow from 2% in 2026 to 1.7% in 2027, and the inflation rate in the US this year will reach 4.2%, much higher than the Fed's expectation. The eurozone economic growth rate is expected to drop to 0.8% in 2026 and rebound to 1.2% in 2027. The uncertainty in the Middle East situation poses a test to global economic resilience. If energy prices remain high for a long time, it will significantly increase corporate costs, push up the inflation level, and drag down the global economic growth outlook [5][18]. - The Chinese government's work report in 2026 sets an annual economic growth target range of 4.5% - 5% and requires efforts to achieve better results in actual work. The overall labor productivity needs to be higher than the GDP growth rate, and R & D investment is used to drive the improvement of total factor productivity to offset the decline of the demographic dividend. The urbanization rate target is raised to 71.0%, with the focus shifting to quality improvement, and domestic demand potential is released through citizenization. It is expected that the 10 - year Treasury bond yield will tend to fluctuate within a narrow range at a low level due to the downward - shifting growth target, and the growth of labor productivity provides a lower - bound support through the wage - inflation spiral [26]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data Quick View - GDP in Q4 2025 grew by 4.5% year - on - year, down from 4.8% in the previous quarter and 5.4% in the same period last year [1]. - In February 2026, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down from 49.2% in the previous month and 50.2% in the same period last year; the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 49.5%, the same as the previous month but down from 50.4% in the same period last year [1]. - In February 2026, the monthly value of social financing scale was 2385.5 billion yuan, down from 2492.6 billion yuan in the previous month but up from 2233.1 billion yuan in the same period last year [1]. - In February 2026, M0, M1, and M2 increased by 14.1%, 5.9%, and 9.0% year - on - year respectively, higher than the previous month and the same period last year. The new RMB loans of financial institutions in February 2026 were 900 billion yuan, up from 390 billion yuan in the previous month but down from 1010 billion yuan in the same period last year [1]. - In February 2026, CPI increased by 1.3% year - on - year, up from 0.7% in the previous month and - 0.7% in the same period last year; PPI decreased by 0.9% year - on - year, an improvement from - 2.2% in the previous month and the same period last year [1]. - In February 2026, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was 1.8%, up from - 2.6% in the previous period but down from 4.1% in the same period last year; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 2.8%, down from 4.0% in the previous period and the same period last year [1]. - In February 2026, the monthly export amount increased by 39.6% year - on - year, up from 5.9% in the previous month and - 3.1% in the same period last year; the monthly import amount increased by 13.8% year - on - year, up from 1.9% in the previous month and 1.6% in the same period last year [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The Ministry of Commerce will promote the implementation of policies to stimulate inbound consumption and expand service exports. It is expected that China's foreign trade will maintain a stable and positive trend, and efforts will be made to attract foreign investment [2]. - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange has set trading limits and margin ratios for the EC2703 contract of the container shipping index (European line) futures [2]. - On March 26, 34 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 35 had negative basis. Among them, Shanghai tin, Shanghai nickel, and Zhengzhou cotton had the largest basis, while apples, strong wheat, and common wheat had the smallest basis [3]. - US President Trump will visit China from May 14 to 15, 2026, and the two sides are in communication about this [3][16]. - Trump postponed the strike on Iranian energy facilities by 10 days to 8 p.m. on April 6, 2026, US Eastern Time. Iran responded to the US cease - fire proposal with four conditions [4][16]. - The US Department of Defense is formulating a so - called "final blow" military option against Iran, and Iran has organized over one million people for ground combat and warned of opening a new front [5][16]. 3.2.2 Metals - In the two weeks after the Iran war, the Turkish central bank sold and swapped about 60 tons of gold, putting downward pressure on gold prices. The Turkish gold reserve decreased by 6 tons in the week of March 13 and 52.4 tons in the week of March 20 [6]. - In January 2026, there was a surplus of 17,000 tons in the global refined copper market [6]. - On March 25, the inventory of aluminum, zinc, tin, copper, nickel, lead decreased, while the inventory of aluminum alloy and cobalt remained stable [6]. - As of the week of March 20, Russia's central bank gold and foreign exchange reserves were 776.8 billion US dollars, down from 803.2 billion US dollars in the previous period [7]. - In February, Hong Kong's gold exports to the Chinese mainland were 63.818 metric tons, up from 36.544 metric tons in January [7]. - On March 25, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate rose by 4960 yuan to 152,500 yuan per ton, rising for two consecutive days [8]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - In February 2026, China exported 783.8 tons of steel, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%, and the export average price was 729 US dollars per ton, a month - on - month increase of 6.7% [9]. - The Indian steel ministry is seeking help from the petroleum ministry to deal with the liquefied petroleum gas shortage in steel mills [9]. - A new large - scale light rare - earth mine was discovered in Sichuan, with an additional rare - earth resource amount of 966.6 million tons in the Maoniuping mining area [9]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - The fuel surcharge for domestic airline tickets will increase on April 5, 2026 [10]. - The BASF (Guangdong) integrated base has been fully put into operation, with 18 sets of equipment, 32 production lines, and more than 70 products [10]. - As of the week of March 20, the US natural gas inventory was 182.9 billion cubic feet, a decrease of 5.4 billion cubic feet from the previous week, an increase of 9 billion cubic feet from the same period last year, and an increase of 1.4 billion cubic feet from the five - year average [11]. - The Trump administration is reported to be studying the economic impact of oil prices soaring to 200 US dollars per barrel, but the White House denies this [11]. - Due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Iraq has to cut oil production, and the output of its southern main oil fields has dropped by 80% to about 800,000 barrels per day [11]. - Two major Russian oil shipping ports in the Baltic Sea were attacked by Ukrainian drones, and about 40% of Russia's crude oil export capacity has been suspended [12]. - Barclays Bank warns that if the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz lasts for more than a few weeks, the global oil market may lose up to 14 million barrels of supply per day [12]. - The US diesel market shows signs of supply shortage, and the average diesel price in California has exceeded the historical high [12]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - As of March 25, 2026, the import of Australian beef has reached 50% of the annual quota, and a 55% tariff will be imposed thereafter [13]. - The domestic pig price is expected to remain low in the first half of 2026 and may strengthen around July. The supply of standard pigs will be concentrated from March to July 2026, and the market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand [13][14]. - The EU Commission predicts that the available output of EU common wheat in the 2026/27 season will be 125.9 million tons, down from 134.2 million tons in the 2025/26 season [14]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On March 26, the central bank conducted 224 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 211 billion yuan [15]. 3.3.2 Key News - Trump will visit China from May 14 to 15, 2026, and the two sides are in communication [3][16]. - Trump postponed the strike on Iranian energy facilities, and Iran responded to the US cease - fire proposal [4][16]. - The US Department of Defense is formulating a military option against Iran, and Iran has made preparations for ground combat [5][16]. - The central budget in 2026 has added 49 specific projects, and the disclosure of departmental budgets and budget performance targets has been strengthened [17]. - Eight departments including the National Healthcare Security Administration have issued a plan to establish a long - term care insurance system, with a total premium rate of about 0.3% [17]. - The OECD released an economic outlook report, predicting global and regional economic growth rates and warning of the impact of the Middle East situation on the global economy [5][18]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation held a symposium on fair competition among enterprises and will strengthen antitrust supervision and support enterprises to expand overseas markets [18]. - The South Korean Ministry of Finance will repurchase 5 trillion won of national bonds in two batches to stabilize the bond market [19]. - There are major events in the bond market, including new defaults, changes in controlling shareholders, mergers, and bond redemptions [19]. - Credit rating agencies have made ratings and rating adjustments for some domestic and foreign entities [19]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The inter - bank bond market in China has warmed up, with the yields of major interest - rate bonds falling, and the bond futures rising. The money market is generally loose, and the short - term interest rates show different trends [20][21][22]. - The exchange bond market has mixed performance, with some bonds rising and some falling [20]. - The convertible bond index has fallen, with some convertible bonds rising and some falling [20][21]. - The yields of European and US bonds have generally risen [23][24]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market Express - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed down on March 26, and the RMB central parity rate against the US dollar was depreciated. The US dollar index rose, and non - US currencies generally fell [25]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that the government work report in 2026 has set an economic growth target, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield is expected to fluctuate at a low level [26]. 3.3.6 Today's Reminders - On March 27, 179 bonds will be listed, 134 bonds will be issued, 163 bonds will be paid, and 320 bonds will pay principal and interest [27]. 3.4 Stock Market Key News - The A - share market fell with shrinking trading volume. The battery industry chain rose, while insurance stocks and some technology - related sectors fell [28]. - The Hong Kong stock market fell, with the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Technology Index both dropping significantly. Consumer and technology stocks were hit hard, and southbound funds had a net inflow [28].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The market is affected by factors such as the Iran situation, and there are uncertainties in various sectors, with different trends and investment suggestions for each commodity [6][9][11]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Fixed - Income - **Treasury Bonds**: The previous trading day saw all - round gains in treasury bond futures. The current macro data is stable, but the economic recovery momentum is weak. The yield is at a relatively low level, and there is pressure in the later market. It is recommended to be cautious [5][6]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is not strong. The asset valuation is low, and there is room for repair. However, due to the high uncertainty of the Iran situation, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for now [8][9]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The previous trading day, gold and silver futures declined. The global economic situation is affected by the Middle - East conflict, and inflation expectations are rising. The long - term logic of precious metals is still strong, but due to the uncertainty of the Iran situation, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [11]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai copper contract declined. The supply shortage logic is still strong, but the macro - environment suppresses prices. The copper market will continue the game between macro - suppression and fundamental resilience, showing a pattern of weak shock with a bottom [56]. - **Aluminum**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum contract rose, and the alumina contract declined. The alumina supply - demand surplus pattern remains, and the electrolytic aluminum price may be weakly volatile with support at the bottom [58]. - **Zinc**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc contract rose. The global zinc ore increment is steadily released, but the consumption is affected by the real - estate sector. The zinc price may be under pressure [61]. - **Lead**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai lead contract declined. The supply and demand are both weak, and the lead price may be weakly volatile [63]. - **Tin**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai tin contract declined. The supply tightness has eased, and the demand is complex. The tin price has support below, but the short - term volatility may increase [65]. - **Nickel**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai nickel contract declined. The nickel ore shortage expectation is fermenting, but the consumption is weak, and the refined nickel is in an oversupply pattern [66]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated upward. The CFTC net long position increased, but the situation of the US - Israel - Iran war has changed. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities [22][23]. - **Polyolefins**: The previous trading day, the prices of PP and LLDPE in the market changed. Affected by the geopolitical situation, the cost pressure increased, and the price is expected to fall. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities [25]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The previous trading day, the synthetic rubber contract rose. The current main contradiction is cost - driven, and the short - term price may maintain a strong shock [27]. - **Natural Rubber**: The previous trading day, the natural rubber contract rose. The market is in a game between multiple and short factors, and the short - term is in a wide - range shock [30]. - **PVC**: The previous trading day, the PVC contract declined. The market is in a game between cost support and high inventory. The price is expected to be strongly volatile, but the upside space is restricted [32]. - **Urea**: The previous trading day, the urea contract rose. The current contradiction is between high supply and policy ceiling. The price is weakly volatile, and the downside space is limited [35]. - **PX**: The previous trading day, the PX contract rose. The PXN spread and short - process profit are repaired, and the price may be in a wide - range shock. It is recommended to operate carefully [37]. - **PTA**: The previous trading day, the PTA contract rose. The supply increases, and the downstream reduces production. The short - term is in a multi - empty game. It is recommended to operate carefully [39]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The previous trading day, the ethylene glycol contract rose. The supply and demand are affected by the geopolitical situation, and the price needs to be treated carefully [40]. - **Short - Fiber**: The previous trading day, the short - fiber contract rose. The supply increases, and the demand weakens. It is recommended to pay attention to the geopolitical situation and device dynamics [42]. - **Bottle Chips**: The previous trading day, the bottle - chip contract rose. The supply and demand fundamentals change little, and it is recommended to participate carefully [43]. - **Soda Ash**: The previous trading day, the soda - ash contract declined. The supply is at a relatively high level, the demand is general, and the price is expected to be in a stalemate [45]. - **Glass**: The previous trading day, the glass contract declined. The production line is shrinking, the inventory removal slows down, and the price may fluctuate repeatedly [47]. - **Caustic Soda**: The previous trading day, the caustic - soda contract declined. The supply decreases slightly, the inventory does not decrease significantly, and the price is affected by exports [49]. - **Paper Pulp**: The previous trading day, the paper - pulp contract declined. The inventory accumulates, and the demand is weak, restricting the rebound height [52]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: The previous trading day, the soybean - meal and soybean - oil contracts rose. The Brazilian soybean harvest is progressing well, and the supply is expected to be loose in the medium - term. It is recommended to wait and see [67]. - **Palm Oil**: The previous trading day, the palm - oil contract rebounded. The export data is strong, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. It is recommended to consider closing long positions [69]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The previous trading day, the rapeseed - meal and rapeseed - oil contracts changed. The market is waiting for relevant announcements and paying attention to the Middle - East situation. It is recommended to wait and see [70]. - **Cotton**: The previous trading day, the domestic cotton contract oscillated. The new - year global cotton is expected to reduce production and enter the de - stocking cycle. The medium - long - term price has support, but the short - term is affected by the quota issuance [72]. - **Sugar**: The previous trading day, the domestic sugar contract oscillated. The international situation is favorable, and the domestic supply is sufficient. The medium - long - term price has a bottom support [74]. - **Apple**: The previous trading day, the apple contract oscillated. With the Qingming Festival approaching, the demand is released, and the market is expected to be stable and strong [76]. - **Pork**: The previous trading day, the pork contract declined. The supply is abundant, the demand is weak, and it is recommended to hold short positions lightly [77]. - **Eggs**: The previous trading day, the egg contract rose. The supply is improving, and it is recommended to wait and see [79]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The previous trading day, the corn contract declined, and the corn - starch contract rose. The domestic corn supply and demand are basically balanced, and the corn - starch demand recovers slightly [80]. - **Logs**: The previous trading day, the log contract rose. The inventory decreases, the downstream demand improves, and the market is affected by the geopolitical situation [82].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The implied volatility of options for multiple commodities (glass, iron ore, rebar, soda ash, ferrosilicon, and manganese silicon) maintains a level above the mean of 0.0000 [6][18][30][42][55][67]. - The report provides specific price, trading volume, and open interest data for each commodity's futures contracts and options, as well as pressure and support levels and PCR indicators [3][4][5][15][16][17]. - Different options trading strategies are recommended for various commodities, including directional and volatility - based strategies [7][19][31][43][56][68]. Summary by Directory 1. Glass (FG) - **Futures Market Data** - FG602 contract: closing price 1036, down 2.17%, trading volume 1019910 lots, open interest 1144060 lots, open interest change +127921 lots [3]. - **Option Factor - Volume and Open Interest PCR** - Call option: trading volume 278092, volume change +59957, open interest 437705, open interest change +47014, volume PCR 0.55, volume PCR change +0.2, open interest PCR 0.44, open interest PCR change - 0.01 [4]. - Put option: trading volume 152897, volume change +75827, open interest 192854, open interest change +16960 [4]. - **Option Factor - Pressure and Support** - FG605 contract: at - the - money strike price 1040, resistance level 1660, support level 1000, weighted implied volatility 52.09%, weighted implied volatility change - 3.99%, annual average implied volatility 38.13%, HISV20 29.17% [5]. - **Market Interpretation and Strategy Recommendations** - FG605 contract: yesterday's closing price 1057 yuan, down 0.93% from the previous day, trading volume 741457 lots, down 203010 lots from the previous day, open interest 1016140 lots, up 45905 lots from the previous day [6]. - FG option open interest PCR is 0.4502, at the 64.49% level in the past year [6]. - Strategy: no directional strategy; for volatility strategy, construct a short - volatility combination of selling call and put options, e.g., S_FG2605P1020 and S_FG2605C1200 [7]. 2. Iron Ore (I) - **Futures Market Data** - i2605 contract: closing price 017, up 0.18%, trading volume 216414 lots, trading volume change - 162235 lots, open interest 408026 lots, open interest change - 6288 lots [15]. - **Option Factor - Volume and Open Interest PCR** - Call option: trading volume 61752, volume change - 52113, open interest 166678, open interest change +4408, volume PCR 0.98, volume PCR change +0.24, open interest PCR 0.92, open interest PCR change +0.02 [16]. - Put option: trading volume 60434, volume change - 24133, open interest 153638, open interest change +6972 [16]. - **Option Factor - Pressure and Support** - i2605 contract: at - the - money strike price 820, resistance level 900, support level 700, weighted implied volatility 27.33%, weighted implied volatility change +0.30%, annual average implied volatility 22.87%, HISV20 14.67% [17]. - **Market Interpretation and Strategy Recommendations** - i2605 contract: yesterday's closing price 806.5 yuan, down 1.82% from the previous day, trading volume 378649 lots, up 158859 lots from the previous day, open interest 414314 lots, down 31577 lots from the previous day [18]. - I option open interest PCR is 0.9038, at the 11.02% level in the past year [18]. - Strategy: for directional strategy, construct a bull spread of call options, e.g., B_I2605C780 and S_I2605C830; no volatility strategy [19]. 3. Rebar (RB) - **Futures Market Data** - rb2605 contract: closing price 3128, down 0.35%, trading volume 406440 lots, trading volume change - 187168 lots, open interest 1167210 lots, open interest change - 40108 lots [27]. - **Option Factor - Volume and Open Interest PCR** - Call option: trading volume 21857, volume change - 28539, open interest 229741, open interest change +2252, volume PCR 0.51, volume PCR change +0.19, open interest PCR 0.53, open interest PCR change +0.01 [28]. - Put option: trading volume 26527, volume change +739, open interest 121638, open interest change +4609 [28]. - **Option Factor - Pressure and Support** - rb2605 contract: at - the - money strike price 3150, resistance level 3550, support level 3000, weighted implied volatility 17.08%, weighted implied volatility change - 0.83%, annual average implied volatility 17.28%, HISV20 6.75% [29]. - **Market Interpretation and Strategy Recommendations** - rb2605 contract: yesterday's closing price 3132 yuan, down 0.41% from the previous day, trading volume 593608 lots, down 25556 lots from the previous day, open interest 1207320 lots, down 56172 lots from the previous day [30]. - RB option open interest PCR is 0.5144, at the 37.96% level in the past year [30]. - Strategy: for directional strategy, construct a bull spread of call options; for volatility strategy, construct a combination of selling call and put options, e.g., S_RB2605P2950 and S_RB2605C3200 [31]. 4. Soda Ash (SA) - **Futures Market Data** - SA605 contract: closing price 1975, down 0.20%, trading volume 777837 lots, open interest 82694 lots, open interest change +13841 lots [39]. - **Option Factor - Volume and Open Interest PCR** - Call option: trading volume 265873, volume change - 85272, open interest 377438, open interest change +22192, volume PCR 0.26, volume PCR change +0.06, open interest PCR 0.34, open interest PCR change - 0.02 [40]. - Put option: trading volume 69154, volume change - 2224, open interest 128011, open interest change +1193 [40]. - **Option Factor - Pressure and Support** - SA605 contract: at - the - money strike price 1220, resistance level 1740, support level 1100, weighted implied volatility 48.45%, weighted implied volatility change +0.62%, annual average implied volatility 32.81%, HISV20 29.10% [41]. - **Market Interpretation and Strategy Recommendations** - SA605 contract: yesterday's closing price 1244 yuan, up 0.32% from the previous day, trading volume 925194 lots, down 45343 lots from the previous day, open interest 840788 lots, up 2265 lots from the previous day [42]. - SA option open interest PCR is 0.357, at the 68.98% level in the past year [42]. - Strategy: no directional strategy; for volatility strategy, construct a short - volatility combination, e.g., S_SA2605P1140 and S_SA2605C1300 [43]. 5. Ferrosilicon (SF) - **Futures Market Data** - SF602 contract: closing price 5982, down 0.46%, trading volume 181701 lots, trading volume change - 21357 lots, open interest 171684 lots, open interest change - 3104 lots [52]. - **Option Factor - Volume and Open Interest PCR** - Call option: trading volume 13936, volume change +32259, open interest 27809, open interest change - 144, volume PCR 0.56, volume PCR change +0.28, open interest PCR 0.92, open interest PCR change +0.03 [53]. - Put option: trading volume 7839, volume change - 5166, open interest 25548, open interest change +761 [53]. - **Option Factor - Pressure and Support** - SF605 contract: at - the - money strike price 6000, resistance level 6700, support level 5500, weighted implied volatility 28.78%, weighted implied volatility change - 1.15%, annual average implied volatility 22.91%, HISV20 18.61% [54]. - **Market Interpretation and Strategy Recommendations** - SF605 contract: yesterday's closing price 6088 yuan, down 0.36% from the previous day, trading volume 203058 lots, down 81564 lots from the previous day, open interest 174788 lots, down 3245 lots from the previous day [55]. - SF option open interest PCR is 0.8867, at the 82.04% level in the past year [55]. - Strategy: for directional strategy, construct a bull spread of call options; for volatility strategy, not recommend strategies mainly based on selling (e.g., single - selling, double - selling) [56]. 6. Manganese Silicon (SM) - **Futures Market Data** - SM605 contract: closing price 6434, up 0.12%, trading volume 374063 lots, trading volume change - 65675 lots, open interest 380552 lots, open interest change - 11868 lots [64]. - **Option Factor - Volume and Open Interest PCR** - Call option: trading volume 87171, volume change +16730, open interest 90153, open interest change +234, volume PCR 0.38, volume PCR change - 0.04, open interest PCR 0.65, open interest PCR change +0.05 [65]. - Put option: trading volume 33031, volume change +3573, open interest 58802, open interest change +4394 [65]. - **Option Factor - Pressure and Support** - SM605 contract: at - the - money strike price 6400, resistance level 7100, support level 6000, weighted implied volatility 32.15%, weighted implied volatility change - 2.94%, annual average implied volatility 22.67%, HISV20 19.39% [66]. - **Market Interpretation and Strategy Recommendations** - SM605 contract: yesterday's closing price 6492 yuan, down 1.03% from the previous day, trading volume 439738 lots, down 457877 lots from the previous day, open interest 392420 lots, down 14171 lots from the previous day [67]. - SM option open interest PCR is 0.6051, at the 55.51% level in the past year [67]. - Strategy: for directional strategy, construct a bull spread of call options; for volatility strategy, due to high geopolitical risks, not recommend strategies mainly based on selling (e.g., single - selling, double - selling) [68].