Market Overview - As of July 8, U.S. stock index futures showed mixed results, with Dow futures down 0.02%, S&P 500 futures up 0.14%, and Nasdaq futures up 0.29% [1] - European indices also displayed varied performance, with Germany's DAX up 0.31%, UK's FTSE 100 up 0.18%, France's CAC40 down 0.15%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.05% [2][3] - WTI crude oil decreased by 0.13% to $67.84 per barrel, while Brent crude oil increased by 0.03% to $69.60 per barrel [4] Market Sentiment and Analysis - The S&P 500's recent highs are driven by a narrow market breadth, with only 88 more companies reaching new highs than those hitting new lows, indicating potential market weakness [5] - Historical data suggests that when the difference in new highs and lows is under 100, the subsequent 12-month returns are often below average [5] - The current bull market, lasting 33 months, has not yet reached its peak, with UBS noting that it has surpassed the average bull market duration of 1105 days [5] - The ongoing bull market is supported by advancements in AI technology and a restructuring of global security dynamics, with military spending projected to rise by 12% in 2024 [5] Currency and Economic Factors - The U.S. dollar index has experienced its worst half-year performance since 1973, down 10.7% as of June, due to multiple negative factors impacting its value [6] - Despite the dollar's decline, it has not significantly affected U.S. stock performance, as global central banks are increasing gold reserves [6] Corporate Developments - Amazon is set to launch its Prime Day sales event from July 8 to 11, amidst challenges posed by changing tariff policies, which may affect consumer spending [7] - Apple faces setbacks in its AI ambitions as a key AI model leader is reportedly leaving for Meta, potentially delaying developments in its AI projects [8] - ExxonMobil warns of a $1.5 billion profit reduction in Q2 due to falling oil and gas prices, with oil price drops contributing approximately $1 billion to this loss [9] - Trump Media & Technology Group has launched its streaming service "Truth+" globally, aiming to enhance its international presence [10] Stock Performance - Pre-market trading showed positive movement for several Chinese stocks, including New Oriental up over 4%, and Alibaba up over 2% [11]

Market Overview - The total scale of equity ETFs in the market reached 37,631.20 billion yuan, with an increase of 208.04 billion yuan in total scale over the past week, and a net outflow of 132.28 billion yuan [1]. Fund Inflow and Outflow Direction - In terms of major categories, industry and thematic ETFs saw a net inflow of 116.39 billion yuan, while broad-based and strategic ETFs experienced a net outflow of 338.22 billion yuan [2]. - Within the broad-based and strategic ETFs, the top three sectors for net inflow were: Sci-Tech Innovation 50, Strategy-Dividend, and Shenzhen 100. The top three sectors for net outflow were: CSI 300, CSI A500, and CSI 1000 [3]. - For industry and thematic ETFs, the top five sectors for net inflow were: Securities, Semiconductor Chips, Military Industry, Photovoltaics, and Innovative Drugs. The top five sectors for net outflow were: Entertainment Media, State-Owned Enterprises, Telecommunications, Biotechnology, and Steel [3]. Financial Sector Insights - The financial sector continued to attract capital inflow, with the leading securities ETF (159993) accumulating 3.22 billion yuan over the week, surpassing a total scale of 20 billion yuan. There are expectations for mergers and acquisitions in the securities sector, driven by the backdrop of a "Financial Power" strategy [3]. - The approval of virtual asset trading service licenses for Chinese securities firms' Hong Kong subsidiaries opens a new chapter for financial innovation, potentially enhancing trading sentiment within the securities sector [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the Basic Chemicals and Oil & Gas sectors [5]. Core Insights - The overall price spread in the industry is weak, with the CCPI-oil price spread at approximately 558, below the 30% percentile since 2012, indicating a potential turning point in the industry as supply and demand begin to recover [1][14]. - Capital expenditure growth in the chemical raw materials and products industry has significantly declined, with a year-on-year increase of only 0.4% from January to May 2025, suggesting a self-adjustment phase in the supply side [2][31]. - The domestic PMI for June 2025 is reported at 49.7, indicating a slight recovery in demand, although uncertainties remain regarding tariff policies post-July 9 [2][16]. Summary by Sections Supply Side - The industry capital expenditure growth has dropped to a low level, indicating a potential turning point for supply-side adjustments, with expectations for a recovery starting in the second half of 2025 [2][31]. - The report highlights that the competitive intensity has increased, leading to a significant decline in profitability across most sub-sectors since the second half of 2022 [2][31]. Demand Side - The report notes a recovery in domestic PMI, but uncertainties regarding tariff policies may disrupt future export orders [2][16]. - The demand for chemical products is expected to improve in the medium to long term, supported by domestic economic recovery and growth in demand from regions like Asia, Africa, and Latin America [2][16]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the second half of 2025 may see an upward turning point, with a focus on resilient demand and improved supply dynamics [34]. - Specific recommendations include: - Oil & Gas: Favorable long-term prospects for high-dividend companies like China Petroleum [34]. - Bulk Chemicals: Attention on refrigerants and isocyanates, with recommendations for companies like Juhua Co., Luxi Chemical, and Wanhua Chemical [34]. - Downstream Products: Recommendations for companies like Meihua Biological Technology and Xinghuo Technology, anticipating recovery in downstream demand [34]. - Export-driven chemical products: Companies like Senqilin and Sailun Tire are highlighted for their competitive advantages in exports [34]. - High-dividend assets: Companies like Hengli Petrochemical are recommended for their potential to increase dividend payouts [34].

Group 1: Automotive Industry - The humanoid robot industry is evolving from product definition to functional realization and commercialization, focusing on software and hardware upgrades and their integration [3][7] - New cycloidal reducers are expected to become a new iteration direction for humanoid robots, offering higher precision and load capacity compared to existing planetary and harmonic reducers [8][9] - The market for new cycloidal reducers in humanoid robots is projected to exceed 14 billion RMB by 2030, driven by advancements in structure, materials, and components [9] Group 2: Chemical Industry - The oil and gas sector is experiencing price fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ decisions, with Brent crude oil averaging $69.9 per barrel in June 2025, up 5.9 from the previous month [21][22] - The agricultural chemical sector is seeing rising prices for potassium fertilizers and glyphosate, with domestic potassium chloride prices expected to increase by approximately 100 RMB per ton in July 2025 [24][27] - The supply of chlorantraniliprole (Kangkuan) is restricted due to production incidents, leading to price increases in the market [27] Group 3: Real Estate Industry - The real estate market is in a downward trend, with a projected sales decline of 5.8% and a construction drop of 26% for 2025 if no new policies are introduced [18][19] - Companies with strong land reserves and product quality are expected to stand out during the market downturn, with recommendations for firms like China Jinmao and China Resources Land [20] Group 4: Media and Entertainment Industry - The media sector is benefiting from a strong performance in the gaming market, with a 10% year-on-year revenue growth in May 2025 [32] - The release of new films and series during the summer season is anticipated to drive further engagement and revenue, with significant viewership for top series [33] - AI applications in gaming and media are rapidly advancing, with major companies releasing new tools and models to enhance user interaction and content creation [34][36]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese marine economy, with an annual output value exceeding 10 trillion yuan, is set to benefit from significant policy support aimed at promoting high-quality development and encouraging social capital participation [1][2]. Group 1: Marine Economy Growth - The national marine production value is projected to exceed 10 trillion yuan for the first time in 2024, reaching 105,438 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.9%, outpacing the GDP growth by 0.9 percentage points [2]. - The marine economy is showing a positive development trend, with a first-quarter production value of 2.5 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.7% [2]. - The structure of the marine industry is continuously optimizing, with traditional sectors like fishing, shipping, oil and gas, transportation, and tourism growing alongside emerging industries such as high-end equipment, biomedicine, and marine power [2][3]. Group 2: Industry Structure and Innovation - The marine economy is undergoing a strategic transformation towards high-quality development, with the service sector becoming increasingly important [3]. - In 2024, the structure of the marine economy is expected to consist of 4.6% primary industry, 35.8% secondary industry, and 59.6% tertiary industry [3]. - The "technology-driven marine economy" signal from the Central Financial Committee indicates that advancements in AI and renewable energy technologies will support the transition to high-tech and high-value marine industries [3]. Group 3: Financial Support and Products - The financial sector is diversifying its services to support the development of marine industries, including innovative financial products tailored for fisheries, renewable energy, and marine manufacturing [4]. - The marine industry faces unique financing challenges due to limited collateral and high R&D costs, making it difficult to secure bank loans [4]. - Various marine-related financial products are emerging, such as loans secured by marine assets and funds targeting marine new materials and high-end equipment manufacturing [4][5]. Group 4: Comprehensive Financial Support System - There is significant room for improvement in the financial sector's participation in marine industries, which require long-term investment strategies [6]. - Recommendations include expanding the range of collateral for marine loans, introducing innovative credit products, and implementing tax incentives and risk compensation funds to encourage bank support for marine industries [6]. - Establishing a national marine trust fund is suggested to support marine research, infrastructure, and governance, with initial funding from the national treasury [6]. Group 5: Marine Insurance Development - The insurance industry is encouraged to explore a "multi-party governance" model for marine insurance, including the establishment of specialized marine insurance institutions [7]. - Insurance companies are urged to cover risks such as tsunamis and red tides through comprehensive insurance solutions [7]. - Collaborative insurance models among multiple companies are proposed to address specific marine risks effectively [7].

Investment Rating - The oil and gas industry is rated as "Outperform" [6] Core Views - The report highlights significant fluctuations in oil prices due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and OPEC+'s decision to accelerate production in August by 548,000 barrels per day [1][16] - Brent crude oil is expected to stabilize between $65 and $75 per barrel in 2025, while WTI crude oil is projected to be in the range of $60 to $70 per barrel [2][19] Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - In June 2025, the average price of Brent crude futures was $69.9 per barrel, an increase of $5.9 per barrel month-on-month, while WTI averaged $67.6 per barrel, up $6.3 per barrel [1][14] - The highest prices reached were $79 for Brent and $78 for WTI during mid-June due to geopolitical events and declining U.S. oil inventories [1][14] Supply Side Analysis - OPEC+ announced an acceleration of production in August by 548,000 barrels per day, with plans to complete this increase by September 2025 [16][20] - The report notes that OPEC+ has extended its voluntary production cuts until March 2026, with a gradual restoration of production starting in April 2025 [20][21] Demand Side Analysis - Major energy agencies forecast an increase in global oil demand of 720,000 to 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025, and 740,000 to 1.28 million barrels per day in 2026 [2][17] - The expected demand for 2025 is projected at 105 million barrels per day according to OPEC, IEA, and EIA [2][17] Key Companies and Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), Satellite Chemical, CNOOC Development, and Guanghui Energy, all rated as "Outperform" [3][5]

Core Viewpoint - The Russian government has revised its 2025 federal budget to increase spending and lower revenue expectations due to a significant decline in oil and gas income, leading to an expanded fiscal deficit [1][6]. Revenue Summary - From January to May, the federal budget revenue reached 14.73 trillion rubles, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%. Non-oil and gas revenue was 10.49 trillion rubles, up 12.3%, while oil and gas revenue fell to 4.24 trillion rubles, down 14.4% [2]. - The decline in oil and gas revenue is attributed to lower average oil prices and a one-time receipt of additional taxes in February 2024, which inflated the previous year's base [2][3]. Expenditure Summary - Total federal budget expenditure from January to May was 18.13 trillion rubles, a year-on-year increase of 20.7%. The cumulative budget deficit reached 3.39 trillion rubles, accounting for 1.5% of GDP [2]. Fiscal Deficit Outlook - The Russian Finance Ministry anticipates a further decline in energy income, estimating a loss of 447 billion rubles by the end of the year. The overall fiscal deficit could expand to between 6 trillion and 7 trillion rubles [3]. Energy Market Dynamics - The uncertainty in energy exports and revenues persists, with the EU considering lowering the oil price cap from $60 to $45 per barrel, which could severely challenge Russian oil exports [4]. - Geopolitical tensions, such as the conflict between Israel and Iran, have caused temporary fluctuations in oil prices, but these changes are not expected to have a lasting impact on Russian energy exports [5]. Budget Adjustments - The revised budget includes an increase in spending by 829 billion rubles and a reduction in expected revenue by 4.4%, with a projected deficit of 3.8 trillion rubles, or 1.7% of GDP [6]. - The budget's GDP growth forecast remains at 2.5%, but inflation expectations have been raised from 4.5% to 7.6%, with adjustments made to oil price and ruble exchange rate benchmarks [6].

Group 1: Tax Legislation Impact - The "Big and Beautiful" tax bill extends corporate and personal tax cuts from 2017, aiming to enhance defense and border security budgets while cutting Medicaid and food assistance spending [3][4] - The bill significantly benefits certain industries by providing tax advantages, while simultaneously reducing incentives for others, particularly in the clean energy sector [4][5] Group 2: Clean Energy Sector Consequences - The legislation cancels multiple clean energy tax incentives, including the termination of a $20 billion greenhouse gas reduction fund and various unallocated funds from the Department of Energy [4][5] - The solar and wind sectors face substantial funding cuts, with a critical tax credit being tightened, requiring projects to be operational by the end of 2027, one year earlier than initially proposed [4][5] Group 3: Traditional Energy Sector Benefits - The bill introduces favorable measures for traditional energy sectors, such as reducing coal royalties from 12.5% to 7% and expanding federal land leasing by 4 million acres [7] - Simplified drilling permit processes and the prohibition of certain environmental measures are expected to boost oil and gas production, benefiting major companies like ExxonMobil and Chevron [7] Group 4: Economic and Social Implications - High-income households are projected to see a net income increase of nearly $13,000, while middle-income families will see a modest increase of $1,430 [9] - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the bill will increase national debt by $4.1 trillion by 2034, potentially leading to 11.8 million Americans losing health insurance [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing trade negotiations between the United States and various countries, focusing on the U.S. demands in the tariff negotiations and the potential outcomes as the July 9 deadline approaches [2][21]. Group 1: U.S. Demands in Tariff Negotiations - The U.S. aims to use "reciprocal tariffs" as leverage to increase government revenue, reduce fiscal spending, attract foreign investment, enhance supply chain security, and create a more favorable global operating environment for American companies [3]. - One of the primary demands is to expand U.S. exports, particularly in the energy and agricultural sectors, which account for an average of 28% of total U.S. exports over the past five years [4][5]. - The U.S. government seeks to reduce overseas spending, particularly foreign aid, using tariffs as a tool to compel recipient countries to lessen their dependency on U.S. support [6]. - Another key demand is to promote the return of manufacturing to the U.S. to enhance supply chain resilience, especially in critical industries like semiconductors and medical supplies [9][10]. Group 2: Specific Negotiation Developments - The U.S. has made significant progress in negotiations with countries like India, Pakistan, and Switzerland, with expectations of reaching trade agreements or frameworks [15][21]. - The article highlights specific investments from various countries, such as Diageo's $415 million investment in Alabama and Japan's $44 billion investment in a natural gas project in Alaska, indicating active engagement in trade discussions [11]. - The U.S. has also been addressing discriminatory taxes imposed by other countries, particularly the digital services tax (DST), which targets major U.S. tech companies [12][13]. Group 3: Potential Outcomes and Future Negotiations - As the July 9 deadline approaches, the U.S. has shown a fluctuating stance on tariff increases, indicating that the outcome will depend on the substantive compromises made by both parties [14][21]. - Countries like the EU and Japan face significant uncertainties in negotiations due to disagreements over issues like the digital services tax and automotive tariffs [18]. - The article suggests that countries with large trade deficits with the U.S. may agree to purchase more American goods and ease market access in order to reach trade agreements [16][20].

山东新潮能源股份有限公司 本人吴羡严格按照《中华人民共和国公司法》 （以下简称"《公司法》"）、 《上 市公司独立董事管理办法》等法律法规，以及《公司章程》等公司制度，作为山 东新潮能源股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）的独立董事，在 2024 年度任职 期间恪尽职守、勤勉尽责，充分发挥独立董事的作用，积极出席相关会议，积极 关注公司发展，认真审议董事会各项议案，对公司相关事项发表独立意见，切实 维护了公司和全体股东尤其是中小股东的合法利益。现将本人 2024 年度工作情 况汇报如下： 一、基本情况 （一）个人工作履历、专业背景及兼职情况 吴羡，女，1987 年出生，中国国籍，东北财经大学会计学本科，休斯顿大 学会计学硕士研究生，拥有美国永久居留权，美国注册会计师。曾任 Canady and Canady LLC 高级税务助理，BDO USA, LLP 高级税务助理、安永会计师事务所 高级税务助理-税务经理，先后参与多家上市公司季度和年度财务报表相关的税 务审计工作，现任 McDermott International, Inc.税务经理。2023 年 2 月 27 日至今， 任公司独立董事。 （二）是否存在影 ...