1月12日早间，现货黄金首次站上4600美元大关，日内涨幅一度扩大至2%。COMEX黄金同样突破4600 美元大关创历史新高，日内涨超2%。 | < W | 伦敦金现 | | | | | Q | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | | | 4566.580 | 昨结 | 4508.980 | 总量 | | | 0 | | +57.600 | +1.28% 开盘 | 4517.365 | 现手 | | | 0 | | 最高价 | 4601.380 持 色 | 0 | 外 | 盤 | | 0 | | 最低价 | 4505.655 播 合 | 0 | 内 | 盟 | | 0 | | 分时 | 五日 日K 国K | | 月K | | 电器 | 0) | | 预加 | | | 均价:0.000 | | | | | 4601.380 | | | 2.05% | | 4567.210 | | | | | | | | 4566.580 | | | | | | | | 10:15 4567.070 | 0 | | | ...

Group 1 - Alibaba-W (09988) increased by over 4.7% following the announcement of an investigation into the competitive landscape of the food delivery platform service industry by the State Council's Anti-Monopoly and Anti-Unfair Competition Committee [1] - Jiumaojiu (09922) rose nearly 3% after reporting a decline in same-store daily sales for its brands, with Taier, Songhuo Hotpot, and Jiumaojiu showing year-on-year decreases of 3.0%, 19.0%, and 16.4% respectively [2] - Xixiangfeng Group (02473) surged over 8% after announcing a strategic cooperation agreement with New Stone Technology, focusing on areas such as autonomous vehicle procurement and market promotion [3] - COSCO Shipping Energy (01138) increased by over 7.2% due to reports of the U.S. government's indefinite control over Venezuelan oil circulation and sales [4] Group 2 - Weilong Delicious (09985) rose over 2% as Goldman Sachs highlighted management's guidance for over 15% year-on-year revenue growth in FY2025, with a net profit margin between 18% and 20% [5] - Li Fu China (02136) surged by over 26.8% after announcing a board meeting to consider and approve the declaration of a special dividend to shareholders [6] - Kuaishou-W (01024) increased by over 5.8%, with a cumulative rise of over 20% in the month, driven by the popularity of its AI features on global social media platforms [7] - CATL (03750) fell nearly 3% as lithium carbonate prices surged past multiple thresholds, reaching 150,000 yuan per ton [8] Group 3 - Yidu Tech (02158) saw its stock price rise by over 8.8% after the approval of a key laboratory for the development of a multi-modal intelligent diagnosis and treatment system [9] - LFG Investment Holdings (03938) skyrocketed over 123.6% after announcing the transfer of 61.43% equity from its former major shareholder to an independent third party [10] Group 4 - Aktis Oncology (AKTS.US) debuted on the U.S. market with a rise of over 24.44%, focusing on developing alpha particle radiopharmaceuticals for common solid tumors [5] - Atlas Critical Minerals (ATCX.US) fell 41.33% after transitioning from OTCQB to NASDAQ, despite being an upgrade [6] - Critical Metals (CRML.US) rose 11.17%, with significant gains over the past week, driven by the approval of a new facility in Greenland [7] - Semiconductor equipment and materials stocks saw a broad increase, with ASML (ASML.US) reaching a historical high [8]

周一，金价涨至每盎司将近4600美元，白银价格也逼近历史高位。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔发表声明 称，潜在诉讼"应该放在政府的威胁和持续施压的更广泛背景下看待"。去年， 特朗普政府对美联储反 复攻击，是削弱市场对美元信心的主要因素。 美国总统唐纳德·特朗普表示，美国正在密切关注伊朗的抗议活动，并正在考虑可能的应对方案，并称 美国无论如论都将拥有格陵兰岛，还质疑北约的价值。 "这提醒我们，市场正在应对诸多不确定因素——地缘政治、增长/利率争议，以及如今又一个由消息面 引发的关于机构风险溢价的提醒，"新加坡Saxo Markets首席投资策略师Charu Chanana表示。 黄金价格飙升创下历史新高。美国司法部威胁要对美联储提起刑事诉讼，再度引发市场对美联储独立性 的担忧，与此同时，伊朗国内政治动荡加剧了地缘政治紧张局势。 美国总统唐纳德·特朗普表示，美国正在密切关注伊朗的抗议活动，并正在考虑可能的应对方案，并称 美国无论如论都将拥有格陵兰岛，还质疑北约的价值。 "这提醒我们，市场正在应对诸多不确定因素——地缘政治、增长/利率争议，以及如今又一个由消息面 引发的关于机构风险溢价的提醒，"新加坡Saxo Marke ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the energy and non-ferrous metal industries, focusing on commodity cycles and market dynamics in 2026 [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Commodity Cycle Dynamics**: The acceleration of commodity cycle rotation is influenced by global economic recovery and pandemic impacts, similar to the commodity volatility seen after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in the 1970s. It is challenging to determine the current cycle position, necessitating a comprehensive analysis of various commodities to identify patterns [1][2]. - **Oil Prices and Commodity Volatility**: Oil prices are highly correlated with overall commodity volatility, serving as a benchmark for energy costs. Gold has started to rise as a leading indicator, but other commodities have not followed suit significantly, likely due to the lack of a clear upward trend in oil prices [1][4]. - **Gold Price Influences**: The price of gold is affected by the transition between the old and new world orders. Currently, gold is viewed as a safe-haven asset amid the remnants of the old world wealth. Historical trends show that after the decoupling of the dollar from gold in 1971, significant price increases in gold and other commodities occurred due to excessive dollar issuance [5]. - **U.S. Treasury Credit and Precious Metals**: The loosening of U.S. Treasury credit post-2009 financial crisis has led to increased market preference for precious metals as a hedge. Despite multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, Treasury yields have not significantly decreased, indicating a weakening preference for Treasury securities [6]. - **Future Gold Price Trends**: A long-term downward expectation for the U.S. dollar index, driven by an expanding trade deficit and potential appreciation of the Renminbi, suggests that gold prices may have room to rise [7]. - **Oil Supply and Demand**: Short-term oil supply and demand are heavily influenced by political factors, while long-term demand changes will have a more significant impact on price volatility. Current U.S. inventory increases and stable Chinese supply contribute to short-term price stability, but long-term demand fluctuations could lead to potential volatility [8]. - **U.S. Oil Production and Price Forecast**: U.S. oil production has seen a year-on-year increase of approximately 300,000 barrels, but the number of drilling rigs is declining. The forecast for oil prices in 2026 is expected to fluctuate between $40 and $70 per barrel, with a more stable range of $50 to $70 per barrel if political factors are excluded [9][10]. Additional Important Insights - **Energy Costs in China**: Domestic energy costs are stable, with sufficient supply in coal and natural gas, leading to no significant price increases. Electricity prices are expected to have limited rebound potential due to overall cost constraints [11]. - **Non-Ferrous Metals Market**: The aluminum market is expected to remain in a supply-demand imbalance due to limited domestic production capacity and stable demand growth. Copper prices are projected to range between $11,000 and $15,000 per ton in 2026, driven by increasing demand in power construction and unstable production in major copper mining regions [12][13]. - **Domestic Economic Impact on Metal Demand**: The demand for non-ferrous metals is closely tied to domestic economic development, particularly in sectors like real estate and automotive. A positive GDP outlook suggests continued growth in aluminum demand [14]. - **Global Copper Inventory and Consumption**: As of September 2025, global electrolytic copper inventory was 1.451 million tons, with a consumption increase of 3% year-on-year, indicating a stable demand environment [15]. - **Challenges in the Copper Market**: The domestic copper market faces challenges such as resource scarcity and price increases affecting downstream procurement. Additionally, cyclical patterns in the manufacturing sector impact demand [16][17]. - **Cable Demand in China**: There is strong demand for cables driven by investments in power generation and infrastructure, with a rebound in terminal electrical equipment demand noted [18]. - **Silver Market Dynamics**: The silver market is influenced by financial attributes, with increased speculative demand as gold prices rise. Industrial demand, particularly from photovoltaic and electronics sectors, is expected to support silver prices [19]. - **Rare Earth Industry Development**: The rare earth industry in China is positioned as a competitive sector, benefiting from trends in high-end manufacturing and energy equipment [20]. - **Commodity Market Trends**: The commodity market is experiencing structural demand resonance rather than short-term volatility, with significant implications from U.S. monetary policy and inflation on commodity prices [21]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Suggested investments include resource companies like PetroChina and CNOOC, integrated firms such as Hengli and Rongsheng, and non-ferrous metal companies like Yun Aluminum and Huadong Cable. Additionally, companies in the rare earth sector are noted for their potential [22].

地缘政治风险压过供应过剩担忧，成为市场新主导逻辑。黄金再创新高，白银涨近3%，布伦特原油涨超1%逼近64美元/桶，同时市场正通过期权市场大举押 注油价上涨。据央视与新华社消息，特朗普将于13日商讨包括军事打击、派遣航母及网络攻击在内的多种干预方案。伊朗确认在近期动荡中数百人丧生。 伊朗方面的最新事态正在成为主导全球大宗商品市场的新逻辑。 1月12日周一避险情绪显著升温， 日内涨近2%，升破4590美元大关，再创历史新高。 涨幅扩大至4%，价格继续位于83美元的历史高位水平，逼近历史新高。 BZmain 布伦特原油(现金)主连 (2603) 交易中 01/11 19:26:29 (美东) 63.61 + +0.27 +0.43% 最高 1500 64.00 今开 63.41 成交量 最低 昨收 63.29 63.34 成交额 0 @ 5日 日K 周K 月к 季K 年K 1分 3分 5分 10分 15分 30分 1小时 2小时 3小时 4小时 | 1月 3月 63.96 63.61 63.36 62.75 62.15 61.55 60.94 60.34 A 59.74 成交量 VOL: 0.000 400.00 ...

Group 1 - The recent surge of 3.03% in silver prices is a common occurrence in the precious metals market, characterized by short-term concentrated capital inflows leading to pulse-like increases [3][5] - Historical data from 2025 shows that when domestic precious metal markets experience significant independent increases, 70% of the time it is due to short-term domestic capital preferences, indicating a tendency for prices to eventually align with international markets [7] - The volatility following a sharp increase in silver prices tends to amplify, with the recent fluctuation reaching 4.4%, significantly higher than the usual 1.5% [9][11] Group 2 - The current price increase of 3% is part of a broader mid-term trend, with silver prices rising from 10,996 in October 2025 to 18,751, indicating that this surge is a minor fluctuation within a larger upward trajectory [13][15] - The average increase for single price waves in silver since 2025 is around 5%, suggesting that the recent 3% rise has not yet reached the average level of previous waves, reinforcing the notion that the current market direction remains unchanged [16]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the silver market is experiencing volatility due to geopolitical tensions and changes in trading conditions, with a long-term bullish outlook remaining intact despite short-term fluctuations [1][2] Group 2 - Silver prices exhibited a "V" shaped trend this week, with significant pressure following margin increases by the CME, leading to a drop of over 5% on Thursday [1] - A major geopolitical event occurred with the U.S. conducting a large-scale military operation in Venezuela, which has heightened market demand for safe-haven assets like silver, resulting in a price surge of over 5% on Monday [1] - The U.S. has claimed control over Venezuela following the military action, while the international community has largely condemned this as a violation of sovereignty, suggesting ongoing geopolitical instability will support silver prices [1] Group 3 - Current risks in the silver market include insufficient bullish momentum to push prices to new highs before a potential larger correction, with a significant selling pressure expected if the price reaches $84.03 [2] - The 10-day moving average serves as a critical short-term support level, having successfully held during recent price fluctuations, with the low point of $70.39 confirming its strength [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant increase in silver prices, with spot silver rising nearly 3% and approaching $80, driven by strong industrial demand and supply shortages [1] - Companies in the silver sector, such as Endeavour Silver (EXK.US), First Majestic Silver (AG.US), and Silvercorp Metals (SVM.US), have seen notable stock price increases, with Endeavour Silver rising over 8% [1] - The outlook for silver through 2026 is optimistic, with expectations of robust demand in industrial applications, particularly in solar panels, electronics, and electric vehicles, contributing to a supply-demand imbalance [1] Group 2 - Investment demand for silver is expected to rise due to ongoing expectations of Federal Reserve easing, a weaker dollar, and declining U.S. Treasury yields, which will enhance overall demand for precious metals [1] - Silver is viewed as a safe-haven asset alongside gold, providing investment value in a low-interest-rate environment [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The market sentiment cooled slightly yesterday, with the commodity market weakening significantly and the stock index showing a volatile trend. The trading volume also contracted. After a rapid rise, the stock index has entered a stage of shock consolidation. There are no obvious macro-level negatives at present, and the short-term outlook for the stock index remains bullish. The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. [1] - The prices of various commodities are affected by different factors, such as supply and demand, policy changes, and macro sentiment. The report provides trend judgments and trading suggestions for each commodity, including metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Stock Index: After a rapid rise, the stock index has entered a stage of shock consolidation. There are no obvious macro-level negatives at present, and the short-term outlook for the stock index remains bullish. Attention should be paid to capital flows and market sentiment changes. [1] - Treasury Bonds: The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. [1] Non-Ferrous Metals - Copper: The copper price has fallen from its recent high, but there are still disruptions in the mining end. The downside space for the copper price is expected to be limited. [1] - Aluminum: There has been an accumulation of domestic electrolytic aluminum stocks recently, and the industrial driving force is limited. The macro anti-involution sentiment has ebbed, and the aluminum price has fallen from its high. [1] - Alumina: The supply side of alumina still has a large release space, and the industrial side exerts downward pressure on the price. However, the current price is basically near the cost line, and the price is expected to fluctuate. [1] - Zinc: The fundamentals of zinc have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward. The recent macro sentiment has been good, and the zinc price has risen. However, considering the still existing pressure on the fundamentals, caution is advised regarding the upside space. [1] - Nickel: The market's concerns about nickel supply have significantly cooled, and the LME nickel inventory has increased significantly recently. The nickel price has corrected from its high. Since Indonesia has not disclosed the specific amount and said that it is still in the process of accounting, there is still uncertainty about the implementation of the subsequent policy. The short-term volatility risk of the nickel price has increased. Attention should be paid to the implementation of Indonesia's policy, changes in macro sentiment, and changes in futures positions, and risk control should be done well. [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold and Silver: The annual weight adjustment of the BCOM index has officially started, and the exchange has introduced multiple risk control measures for silver to suppress speculative enthusiasm. The prices of precious metals have fallen across the board, with a significant decline in silver. In the short term, gold and silver are expected to continue to be weak and volatile. In the medium and long term, attention can be paid to the opportunity to buy on dips after this round of risk release. [1] - Platinum and Palladium: Platinum and palladium have followed the weakening of precious metals. In the short term, they are expected to be in a wide-range volatile pattern. In the medium and long term, with the still existing supply-demand gap for platinum and the tendency of palladium to have a loose supply, platinum can still be bought on dips or a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can be adopted. [1] Industrial Products - Industrial Silicon: There is an increase in production in the northwest and a decrease in production in the southwest. The production schedules for polysilicon and organic silicon in December have decreased. [1] - Polysilicon: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles. The demand for energy storage is strong. The supply side has increased production resumption. There is a short-term rapid increase. [1] - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: In the short term, sentiment and capital have a greater influence than industrial contradictions. One can try to follow long positions with a stop-loss; for futures-spot trading, participate in positive spread positions. [1] - Iron Ore: There is sector rotation, but the upside pressure on iron ore is obvious. It is not recommended to chase long positions at this level. [1] - Non-Ferrous Metals: There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. The current supply and demand situation remains weak, but in terms of expectations, energy consumption double control and anti-involution may have an impact on supply. [1] - Soda Ash: Soda ash follows the trend of glass. In the medium term, the supply and demand situation will be more relaxed, and the price will be under pressure. [1] - Coking Coal and Coke: If the "capacity reduction" expectation continues to ferment and there is pre-holiday restocking of spot goods, coking coal may still have room to rise. However, since the current market's "capacity reduction" expectation mainly comes from online rumors, it is difficult to judge the actual upside space. After a significant increase, the volatility will intensify, and caution should be exercised. The logic for coke is the same as that for coking coal. [1] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The MPOB December data is expected to be bearish for palm oil, but palm oil will reverse under the themes of seasonal production reduction, the B50 policy, and US biodiesel in the future. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for. [1] - Soybean Oil: The fundamentals of soybean oil are relatively strong. It is recommended to allocate more in the oil sector and consider a long Y, short P spread. Wait for the January USDA report. [1] - Rapeseed Oil: The trade relationship between China and Canada may improve, and Australian rapeseed will be imported smoothly. After the rapeseed trade flow is opened up, the trading logic of rapeseed oil will gradually shift from the domestic tight supply situation to the global rapeseed production increase expectation. There is still room for the price to fall. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for. [1] - Cotton: There is a strong expectation of a good harvest for domestic new crops, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream operating rate remains low, but the inventory of yarn mills is not high, and there is a rigid demand for restocking. Considering the growth of spinning capacity, the demand for cotton in the new crop market year is relatively resilient. Currently, the cotton market is in a situation of "having support but no driving force." Future attention should be paid to the tone of the No. 1 Central Document in the first quarter of next year regarding the direct subsidy price and cotton planting area, the intention of cotton planting area next year, the weather during the planting period, and the demand during the "Golden Three and Silver Four" peak season. [1] - Sugar: Currently, there is a global surplus of sugar, and the supply of domestic new crops has increased. The short-selling consensus is relatively strong. If the futures price continues to fall, there will be strong cost support below. However, there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short-term fundamentals. Attention should be paid to changes in the capital side. [1] - Corn: The fundamentals of corn have not changed significantly. The spot price remains firm, and the progress of grain sales at the grassroots level is relatively fast. Most traders have not yet strategically built inventories, and feed enterprises maintain a safe inventory. There is a certain restocking demand before the holiday. The short-term outlook for CO3 is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of policy grain auctions. [1] - Soybean Meal: The domestic market may restart the auction of imported soybeans; the relationship between China and Canada is expected to ease, and China is expected to suspend the tax on Canadian rapeseed meal; the macro sentiment has cooled, and the domestic market has returned to the fundamentals and shown a significant decline. Recently, it has been greatly affected by policy news. The soybean meal futures price is expected to be mainly oscillating in the short term. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of the January USDA supply and demand report and the trend of the Brazilian premium. [1] - Pulp: Pulp has fallen today due to the decline in the commodity macro market. The overall price has not broken through the oscillating range. The short-term commodity sentiment fluctuates greatly, and it is recommended to observe cautiously. [1] - Logs: The spot price of logs has shown a certain sign of bottoming out and rebounding recently. The further downside space for the futures price is expected to be limited. However, the January overseas quotation has still slightly declined, and the log futures and spot markets lack upward driving factors. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³. [1] - Hogs: Recently, the spot price has gradually stabilized. Supported by demand and with the出栏体重 not yet fully cleared, the production capacity still needs to be further released. [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. There is uncertainty about the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement. The United States has imposed sanctions on Venezuela's crude oil exports. [1] - Fuel Oil: In the short term, the supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The probability of the 14th Five-Year Plan's rush demand being falsified is high, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is not short. The profit of asphalt is relatively high. [1] - BR Rubber: The futures position has declined, and the number of new warehouse receipts has increased. The increase in BR has slowed down temporarily. The spot price has led the rise to repair the basis, and BR continues to focus on the upward momentum above the 12,000 yuan line. The listed prices of BD/BR have been continuously raised, and the processing profit of butadiene rubber has narrowed. The overseas cracking device capacity has been cleared, which is beneficial to the long-term export expectation of domestic butadiene. The tax on naphtha also has a positive impact on the butadiene price. Fundamentally, butadiene rubber maintains high production and high inventory operation, and the trading center is generally average. Styrene-butadiene rubber is relatively better than butadiene rubber. [1] - PX and PTA: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, but this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. The fundamentals of PX do have support, and the market is expected to continue to tighten in 2026, driven by the new PTA production capacity in India and the organic growth of demand. Domestic PTA maintains high production. The gasoline spread is still at a high level, which supports aromatics. [1] - Ethylene Glycol: There is news that two sets of MEG plants in Taiwan, China, with a total annual capacity of 720,000 tons, plan to stop production next month due to efficiency reasons. Ethylene glycol has rebounded rapidly during the continuous decline, stimulated by supply-side news. The current operating rate of the polyester downstream remains above 90%, and the demand performance is slightly better than expected. [1] - Short Fiber: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, but this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. Domestic PTA maintains high production, and the domestic polyester load has declined. The short fiber price continues to closely follow the cost fluctuations. [1] - Styrene: The Asian styrene market is generally stable. Suppliers are reluctant to lower prices due to continuous losses, while buyers insist on pressing prices due to weak downstream polymer demand and compressed profits. Although the downstream demand is weak, the domestic market has a strong bullish sentiment due to export support. The market is in a weak balance state, and the short-term upward momentum needs to be driven by the overseas market. [1] - Urea: The export sentiment has slightly eased, and there is limited upside space due to insufficient domestic demand. There is support from anti-involution and the cost side below. [1] - PF: Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of an increase in crude oil prices. There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is at a high level, and there are overseas arrivals, so the supply has increased. The downstream demand operating rate has weakened. In 2026, there will be more new production capacity, and the supply-demand surplus will further intensify, and the market expectation is weak. [1] - Propylene: There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is relatively high, and the supply pressure is relatively large. The improvement in the downstream is less than expected. The propylene monomer price is at a high level, the crude oil price has risen, and the cost support is strong. Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of an increase in crude oil prices. [1] - PVC: In 2026, there will be less global new production capacity, and the future expectation is relatively optimistic. Currently, there are fewer maintenance activities, new production capacity is being released, and the supply pressure is increasing. The demand has weakened, and the orders are not good. The differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, which will force the clearance of PVC production capacity. [1] - LPG: The January CP has risen more than expected, and the cost support for imported gas is relatively strong. The geopolitical conflicts between the United States, Venezuela, and the Middle East have escalated, and the short-term risk premium has increased. The trend of inventory accumulation in the EIA weekly C3 inventory has slowed down, and it is expected to gradually turn to inventory reduction. The domestic port inventory has also decreased. Domestic PDH maintains high production and deep losses. There is a rigid demand for global civil combustion, and the demand for MTBE from overseas olefin blending for gasoline has declined temporarily. Since January 1, 2026, naphtha has been re-taxed, and the long-term demand expectation for light cracking raw materials such as LPG has increased, and the performance of downstream olefin products is relatively strong. [1] Shipping - Container Shipping - European Line: It is expected to peak in mid-January. Airlines are still relatively cautious in their trial reflights. The pre-holiday restocking demand still exists. [1]

贵金属2026年报 ——贵金属仍处上行通道， 拐点关注美联储政策变化与美国经济改善 汪楠 从业资格号：F3069002 投资咨询号：Z0017123 中航期货 2025-12-31 02 宏观面 目录 01 后市研判 03 基本面 后市PA研RT判01 Ø 2025年贵金属市场表现亮眼，黄金和白银均呈现加速上涨格局，不断突破历史新高。年内国际金价从2600美元/盎司上涨至最高4550美元/盎司 以上，涨幅70%以上；国际银价从29美元/盎司上涨至最高82美元/盎司上方，涨幅高达180%以上。2025年贵金属价格上涨的逻辑不断切换，从 上半年市场交易对等关税及美国经济衰退担忧带来的避险需求，到下半年交易降息预期带来的流动性宽松预期，叠加白银实物供需紧缺驱动 资金流入贵金属市场，价格加速上行，波动显著放大。在金价上涨的过程中，白银涨幅遥遥领先，实现了金银比的修复回归。 Ø 展望2026年，当前支撑贵金属价格上涨的逻辑并没有发生改变，贵金属仍处上行通道。美国财政货币双宽松的背景下，美元信用持续受损， 去美元化加速资产储备的多元化，全球央行延续购金将继续支撑金价，重点关注中国央行购金行为；而流动性宽松仍将是2026年 ...