Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The black commodity futures market is generally bullish today. The supply - demand gap may gradually ease, and the black market will have short - term shock adjustments. The short - term supply - demand structure of ferrosilicon is relatively loose, and there is an expectation of increased supply. Steel exports may weaken marginally, and the loose pattern of ferrosilicon may expand. The short - term main contract is expected to fluctuate around 5500 - 6000 yuan/ton [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - Today, the black commodity futures are generally bullish. The rebar closed at 3250 yuan/ton, up 1.09%; the hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3465 yuan/ton, up 1.29%; the iron ore main contract closed at 796.5 yuan/ton; the coking coal and coke rose today, with coking coal leading the increase close to 3% [1] Market Analysis Demand - Last week, the average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 240.32 million tons, a decrease of 0.39 million tons from the previous week, but the profitability rate of steel mills increased by 3.03% to 68.4%. The hot metal output is still at a relatively high level, and steel mills have a weak willingness to actively reduce production. In the short term, it still supports the rigid demand for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese. During the recent alloy centralized steel procurement period, the market expects the demand for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese to be further released, which has a certain positive impact on the market. However, northern steel mills are facing production restrictions due to the military parade, and the overall start - up situation of steel mills needs to be continuously tracked [1] Supply - Last week, the weekly output of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 109,100 tons, an increase of 4700 tons from the previous week; the weekly output of 187 independent silicomanganese enterprises was 195,825 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.62%. Driven by the warming of the alloy market, the production profits of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese enterprises have been repaired, and the enthusiasm of manufacturers to start production has continued to rise. The supply has a further growth trend, which may have a negative impact on the market in the short term. However, there are still calls for "anti - involution", and the market expects the alloy output to shrink in the future. The supply of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is facing a certain long - short game, and attention should be paid to the implementation of relevant policies [1] Cost - For ferrosilicon, with the news of price increases for raw materials such as semi - coke and electricity, the cost support for ferrosilicon has strengthened, which is positive for the futures price. For silicomanganese, the manganese ore market remained on the sidelines at the beginning of the week, with prices fluctuating at a high level and relatively stable; the spot price of coke remained stable, and the sixth round of price increase is still under negotiation. Overall, the cost side of silicomanganese is stable and slightly strong, which may support the market [1] Investment Advice - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory levels, and avoid chasing high prices [1] - Rebar: Investors are advised to adopt a shock - thinking approach in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1] - Hot - rolled coil: Investors are advised to adopt a high - level consolidation thinking approach in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1] - Coking coal and coke: Pay attention to the shock market after the decline stabilizes or the strength - weakness relationship between coking coal and coke [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating repeatedly [2] - Rebar: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Hot - rolled coil: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Ferrosilicon: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Silicomanganese: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Coke: Strong - biased oscillation [2] - Coking coal: Strong - biased oscillation [2] - Logs: Oscillating repeatedly [2] Core Views - The report provides investment ratings and trend intensities for various black - series commodities, along with their fundamental data and macro - industry news, helping investors understand the market situation of these commodities [2][5][8] Summaries by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: Yesterday's futures closing price was 790.0 yuan/ton, down 3.0 yuan/ton (-0.38%); yesterday's position was 308,077 hands, down 27,288 hands. Imported and domestic ore prices mostly declined slightly. The basis and spreads also showed certain changes [5] - **Macro & Industry News**: In July, the national consumer price was flat year - on - year [5] - **Trend Intensity**: - 1 [5] Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: For RB2510, the closing price was 3,213 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton (-0.71%); for HC2510, it was 3,428 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton (-0.55%). Spot prices in different regions showed different degrees of decline or stability. There were also changes in basis and spreads [8] - **Macro & Industry News**: In late July, the average daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel decreased by 7.4% month - on - month, pig iron by 4.5%, and steel increased by 0.5%. On August 7, steel production, inventory, and apparent demand data showed different trends [9][10] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil [10] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of different contracts of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese declined. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia also decreased. There were changes in basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads [12] - **Macro & Industry News**: There were price quotes for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions; a manganese mine enterprise signed a long - term contract; manganese ore inventory in ports changed [13][14] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [14] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of JM2509 and J2509 declined. Spot prices of coking coal and coke showed different trends, and there were changes in basis and spreads [15] - **Macro & Industry News**: In July, the national consumer price was flat year - on - year [16] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal [17] Logs - **Fundamental Data**: Closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different contracts showed different changes. Spot prices of different types of logs in different regions also had different trends [19] - **Macro & Industry News**: In July, the national consumer price was flat year - on - year [21] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [21]

周周芝道 - 反内卷下大宗怎么看 20250810 摘要 美联储降息预期提前，流动性宽松或加速，尽管非农数据引发美股短暂 下跌，但市场迅速转向定价宽松，预示未来政策变化可能对市场产生重 要影响。 国内政策方面，预计 7 月底政治局会议后两个月内难有强劲内需政策出 台，最早或在 10 月底出现调整，美国经济数据和中美贸易谈判进展将 是关键观察点。 反内卷政策被市场解读为涨价逻辑，实则是走出通缩的重要环节，对大 宗商品市场产生显著影响，尤其国内黑色金属在长期熊市后出现反弹。 下半年大宗商品价格受海内外因素共振影响，国内政策短期内难有强刺 激，海外美联储货币政策宽松将影响全球流动性，需密切关注美国经济 数据和中美贸易谈判。 黄金市场在 5 月出现分水岭，结束 4 月牛市行情转为震荡调整，受全球 贸易框架清晰和权益市场向好影响，避险需求减弱，但中长期去美元化 逻辑仍支撑金价。 Q&A 上周全球大类资产的表现如何？ 上周全球大类资产的整体趋势是流动性驱动。中国股票市场风险偏好较高，利 率开始下降，债券市场利率也有所降低，这反映了基本面反弹和大宗商品持续 性反弹预期的降温。海外方面，美国经济软着陆的预期逐渐被流动性宽松所 ...

Group 1 - The market price of ordinary medium plates (20mm, Q235) in the black metal category was 3526.3 yuan/ton in late July 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 0.8% and a month-on-month increase of 3.63% [1] - The highest price in the same period over the past five years was recorded in late July 2021, reaching 5688.1 yuan/ton [1]

Group 1 - The market price of hot-rolled ordinary plates (4.75—11.5mm, Q235) in the black metal category is reported to be 3474.3 yuan/ton as of late July 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1.89% and a month-on-month increase of 5.31% [1] - The highest price recorded in the same period over the past five years was in late July 2021, reaching 5931.7 yuan/ton [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The oil market may shift to a weaker trend dominated by pessimistic supply - demand fundamentals, with geopolitical risk premiums significantly reduced [2]. - For precious metals, maintain a "buy - on - dips" strategy during the oscillation period and be cautious when prices are high [3]. - For various commodities, different investment strategies are proposed based on their respective supply - demand situations, cost factors, and policy impacts, such as holding previous short positions for copper, waiting for short - selling opportunities for zinc, etc. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices declined. After the US announced a 25% tariff on India for buying Russian oil (to be implemented in 21 days), the supply risk of Russian oil weakened due to positive signals from US - Russia talks. The post - peak - season supply - demand outlook is loose, and the market may turn pessimistic [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: SC continued to fall, and fuel - related futures followed the downward trend. The Asian fuel oil market has sufficient arrivals in August, and the low - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure, while high - sulfur resources are relatively supported [22]. - **Natural Gas**: No relevant content provided. - **Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)**: No relevant content provided. - **Coal**: For coke and coking coal, the prices are affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations, with high volatility in the short term. Coke is bullish in the short term, while coking coal should be cautiously chased up [17][18]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices dropped, and the market mainly tracks macro - economic indicators. Hold previous short positions [4]. - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum slightly declined overnight. The apparent consumption is in the off - season, but the aluminum rod production has rebounded. It will oscillate in the short term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5]. - **Zinc**: The expiration of the main contract falls in the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The fundamentals are strong overseas and weak domestically. Wait for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel**: The Shanghai nickel is in the middle - to - late stage of the rebound. Actively enter short positions [10]. - **Tin**: Overnight tin prices oscillated and closed higher. It is expected to oscillate, and it is advisable to wait and see [11]. - **Lead**: The supply of refined lead has regional differences. It is expected to oscillate between 16,600 - 17,500 yuan/ton, and it is advisable to go long on dips [9]. Precious Metals - **Gold & Silver**: Overnight precious metals oscillated strongly. Factors such as the US tariff, economic outlook concerns, and interest - rate cut expectations pushed up the gold price. Maintain a "buy - on - dips" strategy [3]. Chemical Commodities - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price of carbonate lithium rebounded with increased volume. After the price rebound, look for high - level short - selling positions [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon futures slightly rose. The supply pressure remains, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term, with support at 8,500 yuan/ton [13]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon futures slightly declined. It is expected to oscillate between 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton [14]. - **Urea**: After the policy became clear, the urea market declined. The short - term supply - demand is loose, and the focus is on export policy changes [24]. - **Methanol**: In the short term, the methanol market is weak, and the port is expected to accumulate inventory. In the long term, pay attention to the demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" [25]. - **Pure Benzene**: The pure benzene futures price is weak. There is an expectation of improved supply - demand in the third - quarter mid - to - late stage, and it is advisable to conduct monthly - spread trading [26]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, while caustic soda is under pressure in the long term [27]. - **PX & PTA**: Affected by weak oil prices, PX and PTA prices declined. Pay attention to the possible valuation repair of PTA [28]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol price oscillated and declined due to port inventory pressure [29]. - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Chips**: Consider a long - position strategy for short - fiber in the medium term, while the long - term over - capacity of bottle - grade chips restricts the repair of processing margins [30]. Building Materials - **Rebar & Hot - rolled Coil**: Night - session steel prices declined. Pay attention to the subsequent production - restriction intensity in Tangshan and other places, and the overall market sentiment is cautious [15]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, with attention to policy - driven production - restriction progress [16]. Agricultural Commodities - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The US soybean may have an early - harvest expectation. Before the tariff issue is clear, the soybean meal market will oscillate [34]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The price of soybean oil and palm oil is expected to oscillate. Maintain a "buy - on - dips" strategy [35]. - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: Rapeseed oil maintains a neutral view, while rapeseed meal futures may oscillate weakly [36]. - **Soybean No.1**: The soybean No.1 price rebounded from a low level. Pay attention to the weather in domestic production areas and policy guidance [37]. - **Corn**: The Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom. Pay attention to the supply in the circulation stage [38]. - **Live Pigs**: The live - pig futures price in the near - term is not optimistic, and pay attention to the capacity - reduction logic in the far - term [39]. - **Eggs**: Adopt a reverse - spread strategy on the futures market. The price in the first half of next year is more supported [40]. - **Cotton**: The Zhengzhou cotton has stabilized. Temporarily wait and see or conduct intraday trading [41]. - **Paper Pulp**: The paper pulp futures slightly rose. Temporarily wait and see [42]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Shipping companies are accelerating price cuts. The freight rate is expected to decline rapidly, and maintain a bearish view [21]. Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The stock index futures closed down. Maintain an increased allocation to technology - growth and low - level consumer sectors [43]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The treasury bond futures oscillated. Pay attention to the opportunity for curve steepening in short - term multi - variety hedging [44].

Report Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints - The short - term steel rebar futures market is expected to move in a narrow range. The production has increased significantly, inventory growth has expanded, and apparent demand has recovered, but high steel exports have eased domestic supply pressure [1]. - The iron ore price is expected to show an oscillatory trend in the short term. Supply has decreased, demand has slightly changed, and the market is concerned about military parade - related production restrictions [1]. - Both coking coal and coke futures markets are expected to experience wide - range oscillations in the short term. For coking coal, supply - side inspections have affected market sentiment, and demand is strong. For coke, raw material prices are rising, and demand from steel mills and traders is good [1]. - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures prices are expected to have wide - range oscillations in the short term. For manganese silicon, market news has affected sentiment, and demand from steel procurement provides some support. For ferrosilicon, cost provides support, and the marginal change in supply and demand is limited [1][3]. Summary by Directory Research Views - **Steel Rebar**: The closing price of the rebar 2510 contract was 3231 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton (0.09%) from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 24,400 lots in positions. Spot prices were stable to lower, and trading volume declined. This week, national rebar production increased by 101,200 tons to 2.2118 million tons year - on - year, social inventory increased by 43,400 tons to 3.8848 million tons, factory inventory increased by 60,500 tons to 1.682 million tons, and apparent demand increased by 73,800 tons to 2.1079 million tons. In July 2025, China exported 9.836 million tons of steel, a 1.6% month - on - month increase [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The closing price of the iron ore futures main contract i2509 was 793 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan/ton (0.2%) from the previous trading day, with 200,000 lots traded and a decrease of 23,000 lots in positions. Port spot prices mostly declined. Australian shipments decreased, Brazilian shipments fell from a high, and global iron ore shipments decreased. The iron - making water output decreased by 3,900 tons to 2.4032 million tons, and the blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.29%. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports increased by 452,600 tons [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The closing price of the coking coal 2601 contract was 1229.5 yuan/ton, up 8.5 yuan/ton (0.7%), with an increase of 45,809 lots in positions. Spot prices in some areas increased. Shanxi's coal mine over - production inspections affected market sentiment, and coking enterprises' demand was strong [1]. - **Coke**: The closing price of the coke 2509 contract was 1744 yuan/ton, up 11.5 yuan/ton (0.66%), with an increase of 1,609 lots in positions. Spot prices at ports increased. Coking coal supply was favorable, and coke production and demand were both good [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: On Thursday, the manganese silicon futures price weakened in an oscillatory manner. The main contract was reported at 6064 yuan/ton, a 0.75% month - on - month decrease, and the positions of the main contract decreased by 14,857 lots to 237,700 lots. Market prices in various regions were between 5800 - 6000 yuan/ton. Recent market news affected sentiment, and steel procurement provided some support [1][3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: On Thursday, the ferrosilicon futures price weakened in an oscillatory manner. The main contract was reported at 5834 yuan/ton, a 1.22% month - on - month decrease, and the positions of the main contract decreased by 21,298 lots to 124,500 lots. Market prices in various regions were around 5450 - 5500 yuan/ton. Cost provided support, supply increased, and demand also showed some positive changes [3]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads**: The 10 - 1 spread of rebar was - 73.0, up 2.0; the 1 - 5 spread was - 26.0, up 2.0. Similar data were provided for other varieties such as hot - rolled coils, iron ore, etc. [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the rebar 10 - contract was 129.0, down 7.0; the basis of the 01 - contract was 56.0, down 5.0. Similar data were provided for other varieties [4]. - **Spot Prices**: Shanghai's rebar spot price was 3360.0, down 10.0; Beijing's was 3300.0, down 10.0. Similar data were provided for other varieties and regions [4]. - **Profit and Other Spreads**: Rebar's disk profit was 45.8, down 12.0; long - process profit was 145.6, down 4.6; short - process profit was 79.6, unchanged. Other spreads such as the coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc. were also provided [4]. Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: Included price trend charts of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 - 2025 [5][7][9][13][16]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Included basis trend charts of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [18][19][20][22][24]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Included spread trend charts of different contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [26][28][30][31][35][36][38][40]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: Included spread trend charts such as the coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, etc. [42][43][45][46]. - **Rebar Profits**: Included profit trend charts of rebar's disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [47][48][52]. Black Research Team Member Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: Current Assistant Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and Director of Black Research. He has nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry. He has many honors and relevant qualification numbers [54]. - Zhang Xiaojin: Current Director of Resource Product Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute. She has many titles and relevant qualification numbers [54]. - Liu Xi: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute. She is good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data and has relevant qualification numbers [54]. - Zhang Chunjie: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute. He has relevant work experience and has passed the CFA Level 2 exam, with relevant qualification numbers [55].

Export Performance - From January to July 2025, China's exports increased by 6.1% year-on-year in USD terms, with a trade surplus of $683.51 billion[1] - In July 2025, exports grew by 7.2% year-on-year, while imports rose by 4.1%, leading to a monthly trade surplus of $98.24 billion[1] - ASEAN and EU contributed positively to July's export growth, with contributions of 2.6 and 1.4 percentage points, respectively[1] Import Trends - From January to July 2025, imports decreased by 2.7% year-on-year, but the decline was less severe than in the first half of the year[1] - In July 2025, imports showed a month-on-month increase of 1.8%, indicating a slight recovery in domestic demand[1] - Key imported raw materials like oil, black metals, and copper showed improved year-on-year performance, suggesting a recovery in manufacturing and infrastructure investment[1] Sector-Specific Insights - Mechanical and electrical products maintained export advantages, with integrated circuits, ships, and general machinery showing year-on-year growth rates of 20.5%, 15.5%, and 13.5%, respectively[1] - Light industrial products like bags and furniture saw improved export growth, although overall performance remained below the average export growth rate[1] - The automotive sector continued to show positive growth despite high export baselines in recent years[1] Economic Context - The resilience in export growth is attributed to ongoing US-China trade talks and improvements in the prices of certain export goods, which helped offset declines in export volumes[1] - Risks include the potential for increased economic recession in Europe and the US, as well as a complex international situation[1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The black commodity futures market is generally bullish today, with coking coal leading the gains, while the terminal demand is weak due to weather conditions. Steel mills have insufficient motivation to cut production actively, and the demand support still exists. The iron ore market is affected by factors such as environmental protection restrictions and inventory changes, and there is an obvious seesaw effect between iron ore and coking coal [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - The black commodity futures are generally bullish today. The rebar closed at 3,231 yuan/ton, up 0.03%; the hot-rolled coil closed at 3,440 yuan/ton, down 0.35%; the iron ore closed at 793 yuan/ton; the coking coal and coke both rose, with coking coal leading the gains by over 2% [1] Market Analysis - In terms of the industrial chain, the inventory of the five major steel products increased by 234,700 tons to 1.37536 million tons this week, reaching a more than two-month high; the total output increased by 17,900 tons to 869,210 tons, and the apparent demand decreased month-on-month. Specifically, the social inventory of the five major varieties all increased to varying degrees. The inventory of rebar at steel mills increased by 3.73% month-on-month, and its total inventory increased by 1.9% to 556,680 tons, while the output increase reached 4.79%, and the apparent demand increased by 3.63% month-on-month; the output of hot-rolled coils decreased by 2.45%, the total inventory increased by 2.49% month-on-month, and the apparent demand decreased by 137,900 tons or 4.31% to 306,210 tons, reaching a nearly six-month low [1] - Steel mills currently have insufficient motivation to cut production actively, and the blast furnace hot metal has only decreased slightly, with demand support still existing. Last week, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills continued to increase to 65.37%, reaching a more than nine-month high. The blast furnace operating rate remained flat at 83.46% for the third consecutive week, the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate decreased to 90.24%, and the daily average hot metal output continued to decline by 15,200 tons to 240,710 tons, but the year-on-year increase still reached 1.73%. Environmental protection restrictions will be implemented in the northern region for at least two weeks during the September 3 parade, which may suppress the demand for iron ore. Future attention should be paid to the progress of policy restrictions [1] - The global iron ore shipments decreased again. From July 28 to August 3, the total global iron ore shipments decreased by 1.391 million tons to 30.618 million tons week-on-week, but there is an expectation of a seasonal rebound in August. In addition, benefiting from the arrival of the previous shipment increments at ports, the total iron ore arrivals at 47 ports in China increased by 3.027 million tons to 26.224 million tons week-on-week, an increase of 13%. As of last Monday, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 143.1097 million tons, an increase of 292,400 tons compared with the previous Monday, and there is no obvious pressure to accumulate inventory [1] Investment Advice - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply-demand changes and inventory conditions, and avoid chasing high prices [1] - Rebar: Investors are advised to take a volatile approach in the short term and pay attention to the changes in the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar [1] - Hot-rolled coil: Investors are advised to take a high-level consolidation approach in the short term and pay attention to supply-demand changes [1] - Coking coal and coke: Pay attention to the oscillating market after the decline stabilizes or the strength relationship between coking coal and coke [1] Summary - Overseas trade uncertainties still exist, and the domestic anti-involution sentiment has cooled down. Currently, iron ore generally follows coking coal, and the supply-side disturbances of coking coal still exist. The strengthening of coking coal suppresses the price of iron ore. The recent significant weakening of steel mill profits has made the seesaw effect between iron ore and coking coal more prominent [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - A - share market is strong with increased trading volume, and it is likely to rise in the short - term without more macro - negative factors [15]. - Gold is expected to continue its oscillating trend, and attention should be paid to the progress of US additional tariffs [13]. - The US dollar is expected to maintain short - term oscillations [19]. - The economic downward pressure on the US stock index futures needs more data for verification, and attention should be paid to the callback risk at the current level [23]. - The bond market is in a favorable period in early August, but the rhythm of its strengthening is relatively tortuous, so the long - position rhythm should be carefully grasped [25]. - The internal strength and external weakness of soybean meal remain unchanged, and its operating center is expected to steadily rise [27]. - The price of edible oils is expected to continue to oscillate strongly, and it is recommended to buy on dips [30]. - The price of thermal coal is expected to remain firm in the short - term, but its continuous rebound is difficult [31]. - The price of iron ore is expected to oscillate [32]. - The market speculation sentiment of coking coal and coke is strong in the short - term, and the impact on the actual fundamentals depends on subsequent policies [35]. - The short - term reverse spread structure of live pigs may continue, and attention should be paid to the 9 - 1 and 9 - 5 reverse spread opportunities [37]. - The Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with the operating range of 5500/5600 - 5900 yuan/ton [42]. - Steel prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upside space is limited [45]. - For lead, it is recommended to pay attention to buying opportunities on dips and manage positions well; for arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see [48]. - For zinc, it is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side, hold low - position speculative long positions in the short - term and manage positions well; pay attention to medium - term positive spread opportunities [51]. - For lithium carbonate, it is recommended to wait and see before the risk event is settled, and stop profit on the 9 - 11 reverse spread [54]. - For copper, it is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side and pay attention to the internal - external reverse spread strategy [58]. - For nickel, it is recommended to pay attention to short - term band opportunities and medium - term short - selling opportunities on rallies [62]. - For liquefied petroleum gas, the market inflection point has not arrived, and attention should be paid to US policy changes [65]. - For crude oil, attention should be paid to the impact of US policies towards Russia on the market [68]. - For caustic soda, the downward space is limited [71]. - For pulp, the futures price is expected to decline following the commodity market [72]. - For PVC, the market is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term [73]. - For urea, the futures price is expected to oscillate [75]. - For styrene, it is recommended to pay attention to the profit - taking opportunity of the position to narrow the styrene - pure benzene spread [77]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US Treasury auctioned $42 billion worth of 10 - year Treasury bonds, with a winning bid rate of 4.255% and a bid - to - cover ratio of 2.35 [11]. - Trump plans to impose about 100% tariffs on chips and semiconductors and more secondary sanctions on Russia. Gold prices oscillated and declined, and the market is in a certain risk - aversion sentiment [12]. - Investment suggestion: Pay attention to the progress of US additional tariffs, and gold will continue to oscillate [13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - South Korea will implement a temporary visa - free policy for Chinese group tourists from September 29, 2025, to June next year [14]. - The margin trading balance has risen back above 2 trillion yuan. The A - share market is strong, and it is likely to rise in the short - term without more macro - negative factors [15]. - Investment suggestion: Allocate various stock indices evenly [16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump plans to impose about 100% tariffs on chips [17]. - Fed Governor Lisa Cook believes that the July employment report may indicate an inflection point in the US economy [18]. - Trump imposes an additional 25% tariff on India. The pressure on Russia to cease fire is increasing, but the actual effect is expected to be limited, and the US dollar will oscillate in the short - term [19]. - Investment suggestion: The US dollar will maintain short - term oscillations [19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - There are ongoing differences in the US - Japan trade agreement, and there are new variables in tariffs, but companies investing in the US are exempted [20]. - Trump plans to impose 100% tariffs on chip products, but companies that transfer production to the US will be exempted. Apple CEO Cook and Trump announced a new $100 billion investment plan [21]. - Trump imposes an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods. The overall tariff level remains around 18%, and the market risk appetite has recovered [22]. - Investment suggestion: Pay attention to the callback risk at the current level [23]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 138.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on August 6, with a net withdrawal of 170.5 billion yuan [24]. - The bond market is in a favorable period in early August, but the rhythm of its strengthening is relatively tortuous [24]. - Investment suggestion: Carefully grasp the long - position rhythm [25]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil exported 12.257 million tons of soybeans in July, with an average daily export volume of 533,000 tons, a 9% increase compared to July last year [26]. - The supply - demand situation has little change. The CBOT soybean futures continue to oscillate weakly. The domestic import cost of soybeans supports the soybean meal futures price [26]. - Investment suggestion: The internal strength and external weakness remain unchanged, and the operating center of soybean meal is expected to rise [27]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil production in July increased by 9.01% month - on - month to 1.84 million tons, while the production from August 1 - 5 decreased by 17.27% month - on - month [28][30]. - The edible oil market oscillated strongly, with soybean oil leading the rise. The palm oil production in August may be affected by rainfall, and the market is more inclined to long soybean oil [30]. - Investment suggestion: The price of edible oils is expected to oscillate strongly, and it is recommended to buy on dips [30]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Thermal Coal) - On August 6, the price of thermal coal in the northern port market was strong. The over - production inspection continues, and the coal price is expected to remain firm in the short - term, but the continuous rebound is difficult [31]. - Investment suggestion: The over - production inspection from August to September may lead to a 2 - 3% decline in quarterly coal production, and the coal price is supported but difficult to rebound continuously [31]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - ArcelorMittal Mexico temporarily shut down its blast furnace production due to equipment failures [32]. - The iron ore price oscillated. Pay attention to the impact of the military parade production restrictions in mid - August, and the iron ore price is expected to oscillate [32]. - Investment suggestion: The iron ore price is expected to oscillate [32]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - Mongolia's ETT Company held an online auction for coking coal, and all 32,000 tons of the 1/3 coking raw coal on offer failed to be sold [34]. - The coking coal futures price rose sharply, mainly due to supply - side news. The market speculation sentiment is strong in the short - term, and the impact on the actual fundamentals depends on subsequent policies [35]. - Investment suggestion: The market speculation sentiment is strong in the short - term, and the impact on the actual fundamentals depends on subsequent policies [35]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Live Pigs) - Shennong Group sold 174,700 pigs in July, with a sales revenue of 327 million yuan. Dabeinong sold 593,900 pigs in July, with a sales revenue of 984 million yuan [36][37]. - Group farms face the need to reduce the weight of pigs. The market's selling pressure remains unchanged, and the short - term reverse spread structure may continue [37]. - Investment suggestion: Pay attention to the 9 - 1 and 9 - 5 reverse spread opportunities [37]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - India's sugarcane planting area as of August 1 reached 5.731 million hectares, an increase of about 164,000 hectares compared to the same period last year [39]. - Yunnan's sugar sales rate as of the end of July was 80.68%, and Guangxi's was 85.01%. The market pricing has shifted to processed sugar [40][42]. - Investment suggestion: The Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with the operating range of 5500/5600 - 5900 yuan/ton [42]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The retail sales of passenger cars in China from July 1 - 31 were 1.834 million units, a 7% increase compared to July last year [43]. - In late July, the average daily crude steel output of key steel enterprises decreased by 7.4% month - on - month. Steel prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upside space is limited [45]. - Investment suggestion: Adopt an oscillating trading strategy and be cautious with light positions [46]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - On August 5, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $41.92 per ton, and Nyrstar received A$135 million in support from the Australian government [47]. - The Shanghai lead futures rose slightly. The short - term bottom is further confirmed, but attention should be paid to the risk of the weak fundamentals [48]. - Investment suggestion: Pay attention to buying opportunities on dips and manage positions well; wait and see for arbitrage [48]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On August 5, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a discount of $13.16 per ton, and Nyrstar received A$135 million in support from the Australian government [49][50]. - The Shanghai zinc futures rebounded and oscillated. The LME inventory continued to decline, while the domestic social inventory increased. The market is expected to oscillate [50]. - Investment suggestion: Wait and see on the long - short side, hold low - position speculative long positions in the short - term and manage positions well; pay attention to medium - term positive spread opportunities [51]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - China's Salt Lake's 20,000 - ton - per - year lithium carbonate project was officially put into production and sales [52]. - Chile's exports of lithium carbonate to China increased in July. The demand is growing, and the supply is uncertain. The futures price may be affected by news this week [53]. - Investment suggestion: Wait and see before the risk event is settled, and stop profit on the 9 - 11 reverse spread [54]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - BHP and Lundin Mining plan to apply for investment incentives in Argentina for their Vicuna copper project [55]. - An Indonesian smelter's maintenance will affect the electrolytic copper output by about 20,000 tons [56]. - FireFly Metals' Green Bay copper - gold project in Canada has strong development potential [57]. - The copper price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term, and it is recommended to pay attention to the internal - external reverse spread strategy [58]. - Investment suggestion: Wait and see on the long - short side and pay attention to the internal - external reverse spread strategy [58]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Ronghui International plans to acquire 60% of the equity of an Indonesian nickel mining company for $9.9 million [59]. - The LME nickel inventory increased, and the SHFE nickel warrant decreased. The nickel price is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to pay attention to short - term band opportunities and medium - term short - selling opportunities on rallies [61][62]. - Investment suggestion: Pay attention to short - term band opportunities and medium - term short - selling opportunities on rallies [62]. 3.2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The FOB price of Middle - East frozen LPG decreased for propane and increased for butane on August 6 [63]. - The US C3 inventory increased in the week ending August 1. The Panama Canal's passage situation has attracted market attention [64]. - Investment suggestion: The market inflection point has not arrived, and attention should be paid to US policy changes [65]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US announced additional tariffs on India due to its purchase of Russian energy [66]. - The EIA commercial crude oil inventory decreased in the week ending August 1. The oil price turned from rising to falling [67]. - Investment suggestion: Pay attention to the impact of US policies towards Russia on the market [68]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic soda market in Shandong remained stable on August 6, with the supply increasing slightly and the demand being moderate [69]. - The caustic soda futures price is expected to decline, but the downward space is limited [71]. - Investment suggestion: The downward space is limited [71]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The imported wood pulp spot market was stable with only slight increases on August 6 [72]. - The pulp futures price is expected to decline following the commodity market [72]. - Investment suggestion: The futures price is expected to decline following the commodity market [72]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market price increased on August 6. The futures price oscillated strongly, but the spot market trading was light [73]. - The PVC market is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term [73]. - Investment suggestion: The market is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term [73]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - China's urea enterprise inventory decreased by 3.24% week - on - week to 887,600 tons on August 6 [74]. - The urea futures price is expected to oscillate [75]. - Investment suggestion: The futures price is expected to oscillate [75]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of pure benzene at East China ports decreased by 10,000 tons to 152,000 tons on August 6 compared to July 30 [76]. - The styrene - pure benzene spread is recommended to be narrowed, and attention should be paid to the profit - taking opportunity [77]. - Investment suggestion: Pay attention to the profit - taking opportunity of the position to narrow the styrene - pure benzene spread [77].