12月4日，近期白银价格持续在每盎司58美元以上徘徊，接近历史高点，市场波动性仍然显著。FXGT 认为，尽管白银仍有上行空间，但投资者在追高时应保持谨慎。Bloomberg Intelligence高级市场策略师 Mike McGlone在最新贵金属报告中指出，白银的指数级上涨令人"有些担忧"，由于其价格波动性极 大，未来白银可能上涨至每盎司75美元，也可能回落至每盎司40美元。 从历史走势看，白银价格远高于五年平均水平83%。McGlone指出，历史上白银的极端行情通常难以持 续。例如，1980年白银达到每盎司约49.50美元的高点，直到2011年才被突破；1993年的低点约为3.60美 元，经历了约93%的回撤。类似情况还出现在1974年，当年年底白银收于4.47美元，三年后才恢复至更 高水平。2010年白银涨至约31美元，2011年高点49.80美元，2020年低点11.64美元，是最近的长期参考 例子。FXGT认为，历史经验显示，白银在短期内的快速上涨可能伴随大幅波动，因此投资需谨慎管理 风险。 从市场基本面来看，白银价格的飙升与需求增长密切相关。过去五年，全球白银供应持续出现赤字，主 要受到工业需求 ...

来源:TradingView 根据智通财经最新数据显示，伦敦现货白银最高触及58.8美元/盎司，刷新有纪录以来历史新高； 白银价继续创新高！ 12月3日，现货白银在盘中又创出历史纪录，一度涨至58.945美元/盎司高点。截至发稿时，现货白银上涨0.75%，交投于58.8美元/盎司之上。 截至记者发稿，今年以来现货白银已大涨103%，远远超过现货黄金涨幅，今年以来现货黄金已大涨60%。 作为贵金属之一的白银，从年初开始，在多轮利好因素推动下，其价格持续走高呈现出凌厉的上攻曲线。 截至12月初，现货白银价格年内累计涨幅翻倍，远超同期金价涨幅（60%），成为年内表现最为耀眼的资产之一。 白银正以其独特的双重属性（金融属性+工业属性），重新定义其在贵金属市场中的地位。 其价格走势背后受到供需、货币、地缘、技术等多重因素的影响。 从国际金融方面来看，美联储货币政策转向预期是白银价格上涨的重要催化剂。 美联储降息周期尚未结束，低利率环境通常利好贵金属，因为它降低了持有无息资产的机会成本，增强了贵金属作为价值储存工具的吸引力，推动 资金涌入市场，贵金属估值仍有支撑。 同时，地缘政治风险、关税政策等也强化了其避险属性。 再就 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in silver prices, reaching historical highs, is primarily driven by a supply-demand imbalance, with significant increases in industrial demand and declining supply [3][4][5]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is constrained by a continuous decline in global silver mine production, projected to drop to 25,200 tons in 2024, an 8.3% year-on-year decrease [3]. - The demand side has seen explosive growth, particularly in high-tech industries such as photovoltaics, semiconductors, and electric vehicles, with global photovoltaic silver usage expected to reach 6,147 tons in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 15.09% from 2014 to 2024 [4]. - Global silver inventories are at multi-year lows, with the Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory falling to 559 tons, the lowest since 2015, and the New York Mercantile Exchange silver inventory decreasing by nearly 16.5% to 142,000 tons [4][5]. Market Sentiment and External Factors - Expectations of continued macroeconomic policy easing, geopolitical tensions, and rising gold prices are contributing to heightened market sentiment and driving silver prices higher [6]. - The current gold-silver ratio remains historically high, suggesting that silver is undervalued compared to gold, attracting speculative investments [6]. Investment Considerations - The volatility of silver prices is significantly higher than that of gold, with historical data indicating sharp price fluctuations [7]. - Investors are advised to adopt a cautious approach, avoiding high leverage and considering gradual investments to mitigate price volatility risks [7][8]. - Holding physical silver is not recommended due to storage challenges and potential oxidation; instead, silver ETFs are suggested as a more suitable investment vehicle for ordinary investors [8].

暴涨超90%，价格再创历史新高，白银这两天突然就成了主角，12月1日亚洲时段，伦敦现货白银直接冲破57美元一盎司，盘中还一度涨了2.5%，这涨幅看 着让人有点不真实，谁都没想到，这东西居然涨得比黄金还疯，年初到现在，国际银价已经涨了90%多了，市场上全是一片哇声，前段时间还在讨论美联储 利率的事，转眼银价就自己玩上天了，这事到底咋回事，接下来慢慢说。 涨这么猛，背后当然不是凭空来的，最近美联储降息的风声一天比一天大，市场说12月降息25个基点的概率有87.4%，大家都觉得钱要变便宜，美元要松 手，资金就开始找出路，贵金属这块，白银成了新宠，和黄金比起来，白银涨得更带劲，跑赢了黄金一大截。 还有个细节，哈西特成了下任美联储主席的热门人选，这人一向鸽派，市场一听就来劲，觉得以后利率还得低，白银、黄金这些都要被抬一把，信心又被加 码了，资金就是这么现实，哪里有预期，哪里就有行情。 不过单靠资金推动还不够，白银本身的供需关系也出了点状况，最近几年，全球白银产量在下降，供应缺口一直没补上，全球各大交易所的白银库存都被消 耗到接近十年低点，偏偏工业领域需求又上来了，像光伏、电动汽车这些，都在大量吃银，导致现货市场越来越紧 ...

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have reached record highs due to trader bets on sustained supply tightness and anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][3] Group 1: Silver Price Movement - On Wednesday, silver prices rose to a peak of $58.9471 per ounce, surpassing the previous high of $58.84 [1] - After reaching the peak, silver prices retreated to around $58 [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Expectations - Global interest rate futures traders are betting on significant rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, particularly with the potential new chairperson taking office in May [3] - Market expectations indicate a cumulative easing of 85 to 100 basis points by the end of next year, suggesting four rate cuts of 25 basis points each [3] - Current pricing in the interest rate futures market shows over 90% probability of a 25 basis point cut in the December meeting [3] Group 3: Silver Demand and Supply Dynamics - The holdings in silver-backed ETFs increased by approximately 200 tons, reaching the highest level since 2022, indicating sustained investor interest [5] - A record influx of silver into London has created pressure on other trading centers, with warehouse inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropping to a ten-year low [5] - The industrial demand for silver is rapidly increasing, particularly in solar energy, electronics, and AI hardware, highlighting its strategic importance [8]

转自：新华财经 新华财经北京12月3日电（吴郑思）国际市场贵金属价格周二（12月2日）高位温和调整，但"银强金 弱"的格局仍在延续。 截至当天收盘时，纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2026年2月黄金期价下跌26.3美元，收于 每盎司4238.7美元，跌幅为0.62%。 分析来看，当天美元指数在盘中多数时段内小幅走稳，给黄金带来些许获利回吐压力。而白银则继续受 益于供应收紧的基本面现实。 近期贵金属尽管整体维持强势，但高位调整压力也开始显现。盘面上看，2日亚洲交易时段，国际市场 贵金属价格曾显著回调，现货黄金一度跌至4200美元关口以下，现货白银也回落至57美元／盎司下方。 但欧美交易时段，金银价格整体回升。 不过，市场分析人士表示，在美联储12月仍将降息的预期之下，金价短时因获利了结的调整或幅度有 限。Zaner Metals的高级金属策略师表示，在美联储降息预期稳固的背景下，金价可能正处于一个最终 将向上突破的形态中，看好金价在新年伊始达到5000美元。 德国商业银行的观点相对谨慎，但也预计未来一年金价将升至每盎司4400美元。 消息面上，世界黄金协会（WGC)的数据显示，10月份各国央行购买了53 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to remain in a rate-cutting cycle in 2026, but the scope for cuts is limited, indicating that the bottom for the dollar has formed. Long-term, demand for safe-haven assets, anti-inflation needs, and concerns over the credibility of the dollar will continue to drive precious metal prices upward [1][2]. Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - Precious metals have shown strong performance this year, with gold and silver prices rising together and reaching historical highs. Gold led the price increase in the first half of the year, while silver accelerated its gains after June, outperforming gold [1]. - Recent factors such as tight supply of silver and rising expectations for overseas rate cuts have contributed to the acceleration of silver prices [1]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Federal Reserve Actions - Market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have been pushed back, with increasing concerns about inflationary pressures from tariffs. The current rate-cutting cycle began in September 2024, with a total cut of 150 basis points by the end of October 2025, bringing the federal funds rate target range to 3.75% to 4.00% [1][2]. - The Federal Reserve is scheduled to hold eight meetings in 2026, and while the rate-cutting cycle continues, the potential for further cuts is expected to be limited due to inflation concerns [2]. Group 3: Fund Holdings and Silver Demand - Fund holdings in SLV silver ETF have shown a significant increase in 2025, breaking a trend of declining holdings. The demand for silver as an investment has become more attractive, leading to a rapid increase in SLV holdings to the highest levels since 2021 [3]. - Global silver supply remains volatile, primarily influenced by mining changes. Although silver recycling has increased since 2024, the overall impact on supply is limited due to the nature of silver mining [3]. Group 4: Industrial Demand for Silver - Industrial demand for silver has been growing, particularly in the photovoltaic and solar energy sectors. However, the growth rate is expected to decline as the peak consumption period for these industries has passed [4]. - Despite the anticipated decline in industrial demand, the investment appeal of silver is expected to rise, potentially expanding physical investment demand [4].

Core Viewpoint - Silver futures and spot prices have reached historical highs in 2023 due to a combination of supply-demand gaps and expectations of interest rate cuts, with significant price increases outpacing gold [2][3]. Group 1: Price Movements - As of December 1, 2023, London spot silver was priced at $57.49 per ounce, and futures at $59.14 per ounce, marking increases of 95.5% and 97.8% respectively since the beginning of the year [2]. - Shanghai silver spot and futures prices have also seen substantial increases of 74.46% and 74.39% respectively, surpassing the gains in gold during the same period [2]. - The gold-silver ratio has decreased to 73.73 for spot prices and 72.11 for futures, indicating that silver's price increase is relatively higher than that of gold [2]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Demand - The total open interest in silver futures and options has reached its highest point of the year, reflecting strong bullish sentiment among investors, with a 35.08% increase since the beginning of the year [2]. - Industrial demand for silver is robust, accounting for 54.76% of total demand in 2023, compared to only 6.38% for gold, highlighting silver's stronger industrial properties [3]. - The demand for silver is expected to grow due to its applications in technology, particularly in solar panels and mobile devices, which are driving its price increase [3]. Group 3: Supply Dynamics - Global silver supply has remained relatively stable, with a total supply of 10.11 billion ounces in 2023, while demand continues to rise, leading to a supply-demand gap of 1.84 billion ounces [4][5]. - China's silver market is experiencing a significant reduction in futures inventory, indicating a potential acceleration in inventory depletion and future restocking needs [4][5]. - The supply of recycled silver has been declining since reaching a peak in 2011, contributing to the overall inelasticity of silver supply [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve is likely to enhance silver's investment appeal, while the growing industrial demand for silver will support its price in the medium to long term [5]. - Market predictions indicate an 86.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, which could further influence silver prices [5]. - The demand for silver in solar panel production is projected to peak around 7,000 tons, but current usage remains high, suggesting continued strong demand [5].

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have surged significantly, with a year-to-date increase of 100.46% as of December 1, driven by various factors including industrial demand, heightened risk of short squeezes, and changes in tax policies affecting gold prices [1][2]. Group 1: Factors Supporting Silver Price Increase - The ongoing risk of short squeezes in overseas markets, particularly after silver was officially included in the mineral list, has contributed to rising prices [2]. - In the U.S., demand for physical silver has surged, with significant increases in the delivery volumes of active COMEX contracts, showing year-on-year growth of 194%, 147%, 51%, and 168% for contracts maturing in March, May, July, and September respectively [2]. - Domestic supply constraints are evident, with the Shanghai Futures Exchange's main silver futures contract holding 7,017 tons and the Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver (T+D) holding 3,968 tons, marking a new low in social inventory [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand for silver is being bolstered by increased consumption in India, particularly in jewelry, as well as rising industrial demand from sectors like photovoltaics [3]. - The supply side remains tight, with declining silver ore grades contributing to an expanding hidden gap in supply [3]. - The global largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, reported a holding of 15,610.54 tons as of November 28, reflecting an increase of 28.21 tons, indicating strong capital inflow into silver [3]. Group 3: Future Price Outlook - Analysts predict that silver prices will continue to have upward momentum due to factors such as the U.S. listing silver as a critical mineral and China's tightening of silver export management, which is expected to reduce global silver circulation [4]. - There is an expectation of increased volatility in the short term, with ongoing supply-demand gaps and delivery pressures, suggesting that investors should manage risks carefully while gradually building positions [4][5].

年内行情跌宕起伏 降息周期点燃牛市引擎 回顾2025年白银市场走势，可谓一波三折、后劲十足。1-5月，国际银价维持29-35美元/盎司区间小幅震荡，沪银主力合约同步在7500-8500元/千克区间温 和波动，市场整体处于蓄势阶段。6月起，全球白银库存告急信号持续释放，叠加光伏产业用银需求爆发式增长，白银价格迎来首次加速突破，开启上行 通道。7-8月，市场关注度逐步提升，国际银价在36-41美元/盎司区间筑牢支撑，沪银主力合约稳步攀升至9300元/千克上方。 9月美联储正式开启降息周期，为白银牛市注入关键动力，市场热情被彻底点燃，银价进入加速上涨阶段。10月中旬，白银价格出现短暂剧烈回调，获利 回吐并未逆转上行趋势，反而为后续上涨积蓄动能。11月市场再度爆发，期现货价格同步创下历史纪录，截至12月1日，伦敦现货白银盘中突破57美元/盎 司，年内涨幅超90%，表现远超黄金。 供需缺口叠加交割风险 逼空行情持续升温 12月1日亚洲交易时段，伦敦现货白银价格盘中突破每盎司57美元，创下历史新高。截至目前，国际白银价格年内涨幅已超90%，大幅跑赢黄金同期表 现，成为2025年全球表现最佳的资产之一，上演了一波惊艳的牛市 ...