首席点评 ： 美国总统首次造访美联储，国内反内卷政策持续推进 当地时间 7 月 24 日下午，美国总统特朗普前往美联储，考察美联储耗巨资的建设项目。美媒称这是将 近 20 年来，美国总统首次正式造访美联储，此举是特朗普对美联储主席鲍威尔施压的升级。国务院国 资委 7 月 23 日至 24 日在京举办地方国资委负责人研讨班，总结上半年工作，交流做法经验，研究部署 下一阶段重点任务。会议要求，要高质量完成国有企业改革深化提升行动，高起点谋划下一步改革举 措，着力打造创新领先、功能突出、治理高效、充满活力的现代新国企。要紧紧围绕 " 三个集中 " ，优 化国有资产增量投向，调整存量结构，带头抵制 " 内卷式 " 竞争，加强重组整合，推动国有资本优化配 置，形成新的国有资本布局结构。国内商品期货夜盘，原油主力合约收涨 0.56% 报 507.1 元 / 桶。贵金 属方面，沪金收跌 0.78% 报 778.08 元 / 克，沪银跌 0.55% 报 9369 元 / 千克。 重点品种：焦煤、原油、钢材 焦煤： 高炉日均铁水产量在经过两周的回落之后，上周单周环比回升 2.63 万吨，为近几周最大单周环 比回升；焦炭产量环比 ...

Group 1 - The policy of "one line open, two lines controlled, and free within the island" will be officially implemented, significantly increasing the proportion of imported "zero tariff" goods from 21% to 74%, enhancing trade freedom between Hainan and foreign countries while maintaining efficient connectivity with the mainland [1] - Xingtong Co., Ltd. has proactively established a wholly-owned subsidiary, Xingtong Shipping (Hainan) Co., Ltd., in June 2022, with a registered capital of 250 million RMB, to capitalize on the Hainan Free Trade Port policy [1] - Xingtong Shipping (Hainan) primarily engages in international bulk liquid hazardous goods transportation and has established 10 wholly-owned subsidiaries in Singapore and Hong Kong, with a total registered capital of approximately 160 million RMB, forming a global operational network [1][2] Group 2 - Currently, Xingtong Shipping (Hainan) and its subsidiaries operate 8 chemical tankers with a total deadweight tonnage of 130,600 tons and a total investment of about 1.3 billion RMB, focusing on international liquid chemical transportation across various regions [2] - The company has established stable partnerships with key local enterprises in Hainan, such as China National Offshore Oil Corporation and Yisheng Dahu Chemical Co., Ltd., which lays a solid foundation for business expansion post-closure [2] - With the upcoming closure operation of Hainan Free Trade Port, the company anticipates increased shipping demand due to more international trade and investment, and plans to leverage its platform to enhance profitability and market share in the international shipping sector [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The shipping market continues to debate the peak of the peak season and the rate of freight decline. The EC market as a whole maintains a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the results of the China - US tariff negotiations next week [3]. - For container shipping, the spot freight rate remains stable, and the freight rate is in the process of building a high - level bottom. Attention should be paid to the subsequent ship schedule adjustment and the final tariff negotiation results [3][4]. - For dry bulk shipping, the Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index rose to its highest level in over a year, driven by the strong rise of the Capesize ship freight index. The short - term freight rate of large - ship markets is expected to be supported, while the medium - ship market may face weakening upward momentum [10][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Container Shipping 3.1.1 Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Performance**: On July 24, EC2510 closed at 1583.9 points, up 3.05% from the previous day. The latest SCFIS European line reported 2400.50 points, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.9%, and the spot freight rate remained stable [3]. - **Tariff Situation**: The US and the EU are in tariff negotiations. The EU has passed a 93 - billion - euro counter - tariff measure on US products. Attention should be paid to the actual tariff collection and the progress of China - US tariff negotiations [3]. - **Trading Strategies** - **Single - side**: Adopt the idea of batch - layout short - selling on the EC2510 off - season contract at high points, and conduct rolling operations with good position control [5]. - **Arbitrage**: Conduct rolling operations on the 10 - 12 reverse spread [6]. 3.1.2 Logic Analysis - **Spot Freight Rate**: Mainstream shipping companies' quotes are differentiated. Some shipping companies with good cargo - booking conditions are still slightly increasing the freight rate at the beginning of August. The current freight rate is building a high - level bottom, and attention should be paid to subsequent transactions [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: July - August is the traditional peak season for the European line, but this year, the impact of tariff policies on the shipping rhythm needs to be considered. The shipping capacity in July and August has slightly decreased [4]. - **Tariff Impact**: Trump has extended the tariff exemption period to August 1, and the proposed additional tariffs on other countries may suppress China's export and re - export trade. Attention should be paid to the shipping rhythm and negotiation results [4]. 3.1.3 Industry News - The EU is preparing to impose a 30% tariff on US goods worth 10 billion euros if no agreement is reached. Trump said he would impose simple tariffs of 15% - 50% on most countries [7]. - The US Treasury Secretary will meet with the Chinese Treasury Secretary in Stockholm next week to discuss whether to extend the deadline for the agreement to avoid a significant tariff increase [7]. - The cease - fire negotiation between Palestine and Israel is in progress, and attention should be paid to the negotiation progress [4]. 3.2 Dry Bulk Shipping 3.2.1 Market Analysis and Outlook - **Freight Index**: On July 23, the Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index rose 85 points, or 4.18%, to 2120 points, the highest since July 2024. The Capesize ship freight index rose 278 points, or 9.1%, to 3339 points, reaching a five - week high [10]. - **Spot Freight Rate**: On July 23, the freight rate of the Capesize ship's iron ore route from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 23.88 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 3.31%. As of July 18, the freight rate of the Capesize ship's coal route from Hay Point, Australia to Rotterdam was 17.50 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 23.24% [11]. - **Shipping Data** - **Iron Ore**: From July 14 to July 20, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume increased by 122000 tons month - on - month. The shipping volume from Australia to China increased by 13500 tons month - on - month [12]. - **Grain**: In the third week of July 2025, Brazil's cumulative soybean shipment was 7436800 tons. The predicted soybean export volume from July 20 to July 26 was 2.8107 million tons, showing a cooling trend [13]. 3.2.2 Logic Analysis - **Capesize Ship**: The cargo volume in the Capesize ship market increased, the shipping capacity in the Atlantic market was tight, and the shipowners were active in raising prices, leading to a rise in freight rates [14]. - **Panamax Ship**: The transportation demand for grain and coal in the Panamax ship market was low, and the market wait - and - see sentiment increased, resulting in slight fluctuations in freight rates [14]. - **Market Outlook**: The short - term freight rate of large - ship markets is expected to be supported, while the medium - ship market may face weakening upward momentum. Attention should be paid to the iron ore shipping demand in mid - early August and the import coal market situation [14]. 3.2.3 Industry News - In June 2025, the world's crude steel production decreased by 5.8% year - on - year to 151.4 million tons, and China's crude steel production decreased by 9.2% year - on - year to 83.2 million tons [15]. - Driven by the increased demand of JSW Steel, India's iron ore imports are expected to increase this year [17].

Group 1: Market Trends - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a trend of "slowing buybacks and surging refinancing," with a significant increase in refinancing activities, up 183% year-on-year [1][7] - The buyback scale in July has contracted, with only 70 companies participating, totaling HKD 93.66 billion, a drop from previous months [2][3] - The total buyback amount for the year has exceeded HKD 1 trillion, reaching HKD 1,038.63 billion, with a notable increase from previous years [2][6] Group 2: Buyback Activities - The top five companies in buyback activities account for over 80% of the total buyback amount, with Tencent and HSBC leading at HKD 400.43 billion and HKD 204.97 billion respectively [3][4] - The buyback amount relative to market capitalization has increased significantly from 0.09% in 2021 to over 0.75% in 2024, indicating a growing trend in buybacks [2][6] Group 3: Refinancing Dynamics - The refinancing trend is primarily driven by emerging sectors such as automotive, robotics, and biotechnology, contrasting with traditional industry leaders [7][9] - BYD has raised the highest amount in refinancing at HKD 435.09 billion, representing 26.45% of the total refinancing scale for the year [7][8] - The flexibility of Hong Kong's refinancing mechanisms allows companies to raise funds efficiently, particularly in high-cost sectors like robotics and biotechnology [9] Group 4: Future Outlook - The future of buyback and refinancing activities will depend on market performance and liquidity changes, with the Hang Seng Index showing strong upward movement recently [10][11] - Analysts maintain an optimistic outlook for the Hong Kong market, citing low valuations and continued inflows of capital [10][11] - A structural market trend is anticipated, with potential sector rotations as companies report their semi-annual earnings [11]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: July 24, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2] Group 2: EC Futures Contracts - EC2508: Yesterday's closing price was 2239.7, down 0.44%, with an open interest of 11039, a decrease of 1354 [2] - EC2510: Yesterday's closing price was 1537.0, down 0.71%, with an open interest of 50131, a decrease of 1603 [2] - EC2512: Yesterday's closing price was 1701.8, down 0.40%, with an open interest of 8446, a decrease of 87 [2] - EC2602: Yesterday's closing price was 1477.3, up 1.15%, with an open interest of 4094, an increase of 112 [2] - EC2604: Yesterday's closing price was 1324.0, up 0.32%, with an open interest of 5800, an increase of 262 [2] - EC2606: Yesterday's closing price was 1468.8, up 0.60%, with an open interest of 807, an increase of 28 [2] Group 3: Month Spread - EC2508 - 2510: The previous day's spread was 702.7, with a target ratio of 1.0 and a week - on - week increase of 119.5 [2] - EC2510 - 2512: The previous day's spread was - 164.8, with a target ratio of - 4.1 and a week - on - week increase of 10.2 [2] - EC2512 - 2602: The previous day's spread was 224.5, with a target ratio of - 23.7 and a week - on - week decrease of 46.1 [2] Group 4: Shipping Indexes - TT Index: Updated weekly, announced on July 21, 2025, at 2400.5 points, down 0.89% from the previous period [2] - SCFI (European Line): Updated weekly, announced on July 18, 2025, at 2079 dollars/TEU, down 0.95% from the previous period [2] - CCFI (European Line): Updated weekly, announced on July 18, 2025, at 1803.42 points, up 4.46% from the previous period [2] - NCFI: Updated weekly, announced on July 18, 2025, at 1440.25 points, up 0.35% from the previous period [2] - TCI: Updated daily, announced on July 18, 2025, at 1054.56 points, down 0.75% from the previous period [2] Group 5: European Line Market Analysis - European Line Demand in August: The weekly average capacity in August is as high as 320,000 TEU, a month - on - month increase of 8%. However, there is still support for cargo at the beginning of August. The market may remain stable or see a slight decline in some routes in the next half - month [2] - Recent European Line Quotations: Downstream is currently booking spaces for early August (week 31 - 32). In July, prices remained stable at around 2400 points. In August, although some shipping companies announced price increases, currently, most shipping companies are still using the previous prices, with MSK (shanghai - rotterdam) reducing the price by 100 to 2900 dollars and MSK (shanghai - antwerp) keeping the price stable at 2900 dollars, and MSK's加班船 (BEIJING MAERSK) quoting 2700 dollars [2] Group 6: News - July 24: The Israeli military said it was advancing military operations in northern Gaza, launching air strikes on more than a hundred military targets [3] - July 23: According to the Israeli Public Broadcasting Corporation, Hamas has made a preliminary response to the mediators' proposal regarding Gaza. The Israeli president told soldiers in Gaza that intensive negotiations were underway, hoping for good news soon [3] - July 23: US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that Chinese and US economic and trade officials will hold the third round of trade consultations in Stockholm, Sweden next week [3]

Core Viewpoint - The first large-scale continuous production project of wind power coupled with biomass green methanol has officially commenced in Taining, Jilin, with the green methanol primarily being sold to the French shipping group CMA CGM for maritime use [1] Industry Summary - Major shipping companies such as Maersk and COSCO Shipping are planning to replace fuel oil with green methanol as a ship fuel to achieve international shipping carbon reduction goals [1] - The demand for green methanol as a ship fuel is projected to exceed 500,000 tons this year and is expected to reach over 2 million tons by 2030 [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff fluctuations, trading is highly challenging. It is recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [2]. - The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers are advised to take a light long position in the 2510 contract below 1300 and consider taking profits if the market continues to decline. A light short position in the EC2512 contract is also suggested. For the long - term, take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback before making further decisions [3]. - Due to the volatile international situation, the arbitrage strategy is mainly based on positive spreads, but it is recommended to wait and see or take a light - position attempt [3]. 3. Key Points from Relevant Contents Shipping Market Conditions - On July 21, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2400.50 points, down 0.9% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1301.81 points, up 2.8% from the previous period. The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the European route was 1440.25 points, up 0.35% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1181.87 points, down 0.40% from the previous period [1]. - On July 18, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1646.90 points, down 86.39 points from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the European route was 1803.42 points, up 4.5% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 941.65 points, down 8.4% from the previous period [1]. - The latest quotes from liner companies for August show a mixed trend, and the market is in a wait - and - see mood regarding future freight rates. The 2510 contract has seen a reduction in positions and a downward trend in a wide - range volatile market [2]. Geopolitical and Economic Data - The Trump administration has postponed the tariff negotiation date to August 1. Some shipping companies have announced freight rate adjustments, and the spot market has tested the waters with a slight price increase [2]. - In June, the eurozone's manufacturing PMI was 49.4, the service PMI was 50, and the composite PMI was 50.2. The Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2 [1]. - In June, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May. The US Markit manufacturing PMI was 52, the service PMI was 53.1, and the composite PMI was 52.8 [1]. - On July 22, the Yemeni Houthi rebels launched a missile at Israel's Ben - Gurion Airport. On July 21, the Israeli military attacked Houthi military facilities in the port of Hodeidah, and the Houthi rebels responded with drone attacks [4]. - On July 23, it was reported that high - level officials from the US, Israel, and Syria were expected to hold talks on July 24 to discuss security arrangements in southern Syria [4]. Trading Data - On July 23, the closing price of the main contract 2510 was 2.72, down 2.72% with a trading volume of 59,500 lots and an open interest of 50,100 lots, a decrease of 1603 lots from the previous day [2]. - The daily trading limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 has been adjusted to 18%, the margin to 28%, and the daily opening limit to 100 lots [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market for shipping derivatives is currently in a state of oscillation. It is expected that the freight rates for European routes will peak at the end of July, with a low possibility of rate hikes in August, and even if there are hikes, the success rate will be low. Freight rates are about to enter a rounded - top trend, and an accelerated decline is expected at the end of August [5]. - The recommended strategy is to short the 10 - contract on rallies and hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - **Spot Freight Index**: The current values of Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCFI), China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI), SCFI - US West, SCFIS - US West, SCFI - US East, SCFI - Northwest Europe, SCFIS - Northwest Europe, and SCFI - Mediterranean are 1647, 1304, 2142, 1301, 3612, 2079, 2400, and 2528 respectively. Their respective previous values were 1733, 1314, 2194, 1266, 4172, 2099, 2421, and 2667, with corresponding changes of - 4.98%, - 0.78%, - 2.37%, 2.76%, - 13.42%, - 0.95%, - 0.87%, and - 5.21% [3]. - **Contract Freight Index**: The current values of contracts EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, EC2512, EC5602, and EC2604 are 1468.8, 2239.7, 1537.0, 1701.8, 1477.3, and 1324.0 respectively. Their previous values were 1460.0, 2249.7, 1548.0, 1708.7, 1460.5, and 1319.8, with changes of 0.60%, - 0.44%, - 0.71%, - 0.40%, 1.15%, and 0.32% [3]. - **Contract Positions**: The current positions of EC2606, EC2508, EC2410, EC2412, EC2602, and EC2604 are 807, 11039, 50131, 8446, 4094, and 5800 respectively. Their previous positions were 779, 12393, 51734, 8533, 3982, and 5538, with changes of 28, - 1354, - 1603, - 87, 112, and 262 [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: The current values of the 10 - 12, 12 - 2, and 12 - 4 monthly spreads are 702.7, - 164.8, and 377.8 respectively. Their previous values were 701.7, - 160.7, and 388.9, with changes of 1.0, - 4.1, and - 11.1 [3]. 3.2 Market News - US President Trump said he would be willing to abandon tariff provisions if he could persuade major countries to open their markets to the US; US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that most countries will face a rebound in tariff levels to the retaliatory rates set on April 2 by the Trump administration on August 1; he will discuss with Chinese officials in Stockholm whether to further postpone the August 12 tariff deadline for China; Indonesia will impose a 19% reciprocal tariff on US goods and cancel tariff barriers on over 99% of US exports; Trump announced a 15% reciprocal tariff on Japan [4]. 3.3 Market Analysis - The 08 - contract rallied on Friday as Maersk announced a PSS increase of 500 for long - term contracts in August and ONE raised its online quote by 300, leading the market to pre - trade the August price increase; the 10 - contract declined on Monday as ONE's offline August price remained the same as in late July and CMA cut prices at the end of July; the market declined on Tuesday afternoon as WSK's August first - week freight rate was lower than the current selling price, seen as a signal of a peak in freight rates [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The top of the spot freight rate has likely appeared, with the offline price of ONE adjusted down to $3108/FEU [1][4]. - The August contract is experiencing high - level fluctuations, and the top of the freight rate has likely emerged. The 08 contract's delivery settlement price may fall around 2200 points [4]. - The October contract is mainly for short - allocation during the off - season, and subsequent focus is on the downward slope of the freight rate, with expected high volatility [5]. - The December contract still follows the off - peak and peak season pattern, but the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will reopen [6][7]. - In 2025, it is still a major year for container ship deliveries [8]. - For trading strategies, the main contract is expected to fluctuate. The recommended arbitrage strategy is to go long on the December contract and short on the October contract, and short the October contract on rallies [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs I. Futures Price - As of July 24, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts was 80,317 lots, and the daily trading volume was 74,208 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1477.30, 1324.00, 1468.80, 2239.70, 1537.00, and 1701.80 respectively [7]. II. Spot Price - Online quotes vary among different shipping companies. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam price in week 31 was 1907/3214, and in week 32 it was 1780/2980. In the second half of July, the offline price of the PA alliance was between $3100 - 3300/FEU, and that of the OA alliance was between $3200 - 3500/FEU [2][4]. III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - From January to July 20, 2025, 151 container ships were delivered, with a total capacity of 1.204 million TEU. Among them, 47 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU were delivered, totaling 705,300 TEU, and 7 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU were delivered, totaling 159,880 TEU [8]. - The average weekly capacity from China to European base ports in the remaining two weeks of July was 272,000 TEU. In August, the average weekly capacity was 310,500 TEU, and in September it was 276,400 TEU. Maersk will add two additional ships in August, with a total capacity of about 29,000 TEU [3]. IV. Supply Chain - The situation of container ship passage through major canals such as the Suez Canal, the Cape of Good Hope, and the Panama Canal is presented in the figures, which can reflect the impact on the supply chain [66][68][74]. - The congestion ratio and congested capacity of global container ships are also shown in the figures, which are important factors affecting the supply chain [57]. V. Demand and European Economy - Figures such as the EU 27's industrial production index, import value from China, consumer confidence index, and retail sales year - on - year can reflect the demand and economic situation in Europe [39][40][41]. - China's export volume to the EU and total export volume can also provide insights into the demand side [43][44].

2025年7月24日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 班轮公司最新8月报价涨跌互现，盘面继续回撤，近月保持基差修复，今日若回调可考虑加仓，设置好止损, | SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | | | --- | --- | | 7月21日 | 7月18日 | | | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）1147.96点，较上期下跌5.75% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）2400.50点，较上期下跌0.9% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（欧洲航线）1440.25点，较上期上涨0.35% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1301.81点，较上期上涨2.8% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）1181.87点，较上期下跌0.40% | | 7月18日 | | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1646.90点，较上期下跌86.39点 | 7月18日 | | | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1303.54点，较上期下跌0.8% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格2079USD/TEU, 较上期下跌1.00% | | ...