Core Viewpoint - The press conference highlighted the achievements of China's financial industry during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, emphasizing the stability of international payments and the enhancement of foreign exchange services for the real economy [3][4]. Group 1: International Payments and Foreign Exchange Services - The international balance of payments has become more stable, with the current account surplus to GDP ratio maintained within a reasonable range [3]. - By the end of July, foreign institutions and individuals held over 10 trillion yuan in domestic stocks, bonds, and deposits, indicating active cross-border investment [3]. - The foreign exchange service environment has improved significantly, with banks adopting facilitative measures based on corporate credit status, leading to a substantial reduction in processing times [3]. Group 2: Regulatory and Risk Management Enhancements - The regulatory capacity and risk prevention abilities have been continuously strengthened in an open environment, with a dual management framework of "macro-prudential + micro-regulation" established [3]. - Over 6,100 foreign exchange cases have been cracked since the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," effectively combating illegal activities such as underground banking [3]. Group 3: Foreign Exchange Reserves - China's foreign exchange reserves have remained stable above 3 trillion USD, consistently exceeding 3.2 trillion USD in recent years [4]. - The management of foreign exchange reserves has been focused on ensuring asset safety, liquidity, and value preservation, serving as a crucial stabilizer for the national economy [4].

Gold - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points on September 18, with projections indicating two more 25 basis point cuts in the upcoming meetings, targeting a rate of 3.4% for next year, which is less than investors expected [1] - Wall Street believes that the rate cuts will occur faster than the Fed's projections, with futures markets betting on a drop to 3% by the end of next year, significantly lower than the Fed's forecast [1] - Technical analysis shows a bullish trend for gold, with a strong likelihood of further increases, and short-term support at $3,695 [1] Oil - OPEC+ has accelerated production since April, with cumulative increases exceeding the voluntary cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day planned for November 2023, ending a year earlier than expected [2] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a 4 million barrel increase in distillate inventories, raising concerns about oversupply [2] - Technical analysis indicates a bearish outlook for oil, with a potential drop below $61.50 leading to a target of $55 [2] Dollar Index - New Fed Governor Milan emphasized the Fed's independence and the need for objective economic data interpretation, suggesting a rate cut of over 100 basis points by year-end [3] - Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari noted that a weak job market influenced the September rate cut decision, with further cuts likely in upcoming meetings [3] - The dollar index rebounded strongly post-Fed meeting, with resistance at the 97.80-98 range and key support at 97.23 [3] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 has maintained a strong bullish trend with high volatility, indicating a high probability of breaking previous highs [4] Copper - Copper prices experienced a pullback from $4.65, finding support at $4.51, with a potential for further gains in the near term [5] - Short-term resistance is noted at $4.62, with a breakout potentially targeting the $4.65-$4.70 range, and support at $4.53 [5] Market Overview - The U.S. House passed a Republican funding bill, but it failed in the Senate, prompting Democratic leaders to seek discussions with Trump to avoid a government shutdown [6] - The EU Commission approved a new sanctions package against Russia, lowering the oil price cap to $47.6 per barrel and proposing a ban on Russian LNG imports by January 1, 2027, a year earlier than planned [6] - The Bank of Japan maintained interest rates, with two members proposing a 25 basis point hike and initiating an ETF selling plan with an annual reduction of 330 billion yen [7]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes a balanced approach during the 14th Five-Year Plan, focusing on supporting the real economy while managing financial risks and maintaining stability [1][3]. Financial Support and Risk Management - The PBOC has taken significant steps to mitigate debt risks associated with financing platforms, resulting in a reduction of over 60% in the number of financing platforms and a decrease of more than 50% in financial debt scale compared to the beginning of 2023 [3]. - In the real estate sector, the PBOC has adjusted policies such as down payment ratios and mortgage rates, which is expected to save over 300 billion yuan in interest payments for more than 50 million households annually [3]. - The PBOC, in collaboration with regulatory bodies and local governments, has implemented measures to reduce the number of high-risk small and medium-sized banks significantly from peak levels [3]. Market Stability and Regulatory Measures - The PBOC maintains that the market plays a decisive role in exchange rate formation, ensuring the basic stability of the RMB amid external fluctuations [4]. - In the bond market, the PBOC has strengthened regulatory coordination and risk assessment, resulting in a low default rate and overall stable market operations [4]. - The PBOC is exploring monetary policy tools to maintain capital market stability, including the creation of swap facilities and stock repurchase loans in collaboration with the China Securities Regulatory Commission [4]. Overall Financial Health - The PBOC asserts that during the 14th Five-Year Plan, financial risks are generally controllable, and the financial system is operating robustly, providing strong support for high-quality economic development [4].

Core Viewpoint - The press conference highlighted the achievements of China's financial industry during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, emphasizing the stability and resilience of the foreign exchange market and the increasing role of the RMB in international trade [1] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Market Developments - The foreign exchange market in China has seen rational and orderly trading, with enhanced stability since the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] - The ratio of corporate foreign exchange hedging has increased from 17% in 2020 to approximately 30% [1] - The share of RMB in cross-border trade has risen from 16% to nearly 30% [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic Management and Future Outlook - The macro-prudential management system of the foreign exchange market is gradually improving, with a richer toolbox for counter-cyclical adjustments [1] - Despite high volatility in the international market, cross-border capital flows in China have remained generally balanced [1] - The long-term positive fundamentals of the Chinese economy and steady progress in high-level opening-up are expected to stabilize the international balance of payments [1] - The market-oriented formation mechanism of the RMB exchange rate is continuously improving, enhancing the effectiveness of macro-prudential management in the foreign exchange market [1]

Global Asset Market Performance - 10 - year Treasury yields of major economies on September 19, 2025: US 4.128%, UK 4.714%, France 3.553%, etc. Latest changes, weekly, monthly and yearly changes vary by country [3] - 2 - year Treasury yields of major economies on September 19, 2025: China (1Y) 3.520%, US 3.976%, UK 2.019%, etc. with corresponding changes [3] - Dollar exchange rates against major emerging - economy currencies on September 19, 2025: South Africa zar 5.324, Russia 17.344, etc. with different changes over different periods [3] - RMB data on September 19, 2025: on - shore RMB 7.118, off - shore RMB 7.119, etc. with various changes [3] - Stock indices of major economies on September 19, 2025: Dow Jones 6664.360, S&P 500 46315.270, etc. with percentage changes over different time frames [3] - Credit bond indices: latest changes, weekly, monthly and yearly changes of emerging - economy investment - grade, high - yield, US investment - grade, etc. are presented [3][4] Stock Index Futures Trading Data - A - share closing prices: A - share 3820.09, CSI 300 4501.92, etc. with corresponding percentage changes [5] - Valuation data: PE(TTM) of CSI 300 is 13.96, S&P 500 is 27.73, etc. with环比 changes [5] - Risk premium: 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate of S&P 500 is - 0.52, German DAX is 2.38 with环比 changes [5] - Fund flow data: latest values and 5 - day average values of A - shares, main board, etc. are given [5] - Trading volume data: latest values and环比 changes of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, etc. are shown [5] - Futures basis and premium/discount data: IF basis is - 37.52, IH basis is 3.66, etc. with corresponding percentages [5] Treasury Futures Trading Data - Treasury futures closing prices: T00 107.835, TF00 105.675, etc. with percentage changes [6] - Fund interest rates: R001 1.4993%, R007 1.5160%, SHIBOR - 3M 1.5620% with daily changes in basis points [6]

Market Overview - In August, the overall market risk appetite improved, with Chinese stocks leading the gains at a return of 7.2% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index surpassed 3800 points, reaching a nearly ten-year high [1] - Daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets significantly increased to 22,796 billion yuan [1] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations rose, contributing to an increase in gold prices [1] - OPEC+ announced a substantial increase in production, leading to a decline in oil prices by 6.53% [1] Asset Performance - The ranking of asset returns for August is as follows: Chinese stocks > Gold > Global stocks > Global bonds > Agricultural products > Cash > Foreign exchange > Domestic bonds > Real estate > Industrial products > Oil [1] Chinese Stock Market - The Chinese stock market continued to perform well, with major indices rising: the Wind China 500R Index increased by 7.2%, the Wind All A Index rose by 10.9%, and the Hong Kong China Enterprises Index gained 3.3% [10] - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 22,796 billion yuan, up from 16,101 billion yuan the previous month, indicating increased market activity [10] - The technology sector, particularly in AI, computing power, and semiconductors, showed strong performance with a monthly increase of 16.3% [11] Global Stock Market - The global stock market saw most indices rise, with emerging markets outperforming developed markets [5] - Vietnam and Brazil led the gains with returns of 12.0% and 8.9%, respectively, while Saudi Arabia and India lagged with returns of -2.9% and -2.2% [5] - Developed markets, particularly Japan, performed well with a return of 5.9%, while Germany and France had returns below 1% [5] Bond Market - The bond market faced pressure in August, with rising yield expectations due to inflation concerns [12] - Convertible bonds led the performance with a yield of 4.32%, while interest rate bonds showed the weakest performance with a decline of 0.44% [12] - The yield on 10-year government bonds rose by 13.35 basis points to 1.84% [12] Commodity Market - Gold prices reached new highs, closing at $3,516.0 per ounce, a 4.9% increase from the previous month [17] - Oil prices declined by 4% to $67 per barrel due to increased supply and weakened demand [17] - In the agricultural sector, soybeans showed the best performance with a 6.4% increase [18] Real Estate Market - The real estate market in first-tier cities continued to show a downward trend, with investment indices declining [20] - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities decreased by 1.6% to 1.786 million square meters [22] - The overall market remains under pressure, indicating that recovery in the industry requires further observation of subsequent data [22] Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index fell by 2.20% to 97.85, reflecting a weakening trend [24] - The decline in the dollar has put upward pressure on the renminbi exchange rate [24] Cash Market - The money market fund index rose to 1,706.44 points, a slight increase of 0.09% from the previous month [26] - The annualized yield of the Yu'ebao seven-day fund was 1.06%, showing a slight increase [26]

Core Insights - In August 2025, China's foreign exchange market operated smoothly, with a surplus in bank settlement and sale of foreign exchange amounting to $14.6 billion and a net inflow of cross-border funds of $3.2 billion [2][3] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Market Performance - In August 2025, banks settled foreign exchange amounting to 15,103 billion RMB and sold 14,058 billion RMB, resulting in a cumulative settlement of 113,938 billion RMB and a cumulative sale of 113,078 billion RMB from January to August 2025 [1] - The foreign exchange settlement in August 2025 was $2,118 billion, while the sale was $1,971 billion, with cumulative figures from January to August 2025 being $15,886 billion for settlement and $15,765 billion for sale [1] - The foreign exchange market saw active trading, with non-bank sector cross-border receipts reaching $1.3 trillion in August, reflecting an 8% year-on-year growth [2] Group 2: Cross-Border Fund Flows - In August 2025, the bank's foreign-related income was 45,515 billion RMB, with outflows of 45,284 billion RMB, leading to cumulative foreign-related income of 372,219 billion RMB and outflows of 363,400 billion RMB from January to August 2025 [1] - The foreign-related income in August 2025 was $6,383 billion, while outflows were $6,350 billion, with cumulative figures from January to August 2025 being $51,893 billion for income and $50,665 billion for outflows [1] - The net inflow of cross-border funds in August 2025 was $3.2 billion, with stable net inflows from trade and overall net purchases of domestic stocks and bonds by foreign investors [2]

Domestic News - The Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments announced 20 measures to promote the expansion and upgrade of the "15-minute convenient living circle" by 2030, aiming to establish 100 pilot cities and create 10,000 well-structured living circles with a resident satisfaction rate of over 90% and a chain store rate of over 30% [1] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment reported that China has built the world's largest carbon emissions trading market, covering over 60% of the country's carbon emissions, and has initiated a voluntary greenhouse gas reduction trading market [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with other departments, issued a "Light Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" to enhance the role of light industry in economic stability, with a focus on new growth points such as smart home products and sports leisure products [2] - The Ministry of Transport released a plan to build high-quality data sets for the transportation industry by 2030, aiming to improve data supply and support the development of intelligent transportation networks [2] - The Civil Aviation Administration reported that China's civil aviation achieved a total transportation turnover of 151.8 billion ton-kilometers in August, marking a year-on-year increase of 8% [3] Market Updates - The People's Bank of China announced adjustments to the 14-day reverse repurchase operations, which will now be conducted with fixed quantity and interest rate bidding [3] - The National Foreign Exchange Administration reported that in August 2025, banks settled 15,103 billion yuan and sold 14,058 billion yuan, with cumulative settlements from January to August reaching 113,938 billion yuan [3] - The China Automobile Industry Association is conducting an anti-discrimination investigation in response to the U.S. measures against China's integrated circuit sector, focusing on the impact on the automotive industry [4] Housing and Automotive Industry - Shanghai has optimized its housing property tax pilot policies, providing tax exemptions for high-level talents and first-time homebuyers under certain conditions [5] - Xiaomi Auto Technology has initiated a recall of 116,887 electric vehicles produced between February 6, 2024, and August 30, 2025, in compliance with regulations [5]

Group 1 - The foreign exchange market in China showed overall balance in supply and demand in August 2025, with a net inflow of $3.2 billion and a surplus of $14.6 billion in bank settlement and sale of foreign exchange [1] - In August, the bank's foreign exchange settlement amounted to $211.8 billion, while foreign exchange sales reached $197.1 billion, continuing the surplus trend [1] - The scale of bank customer foreign exchange receipts and payments reached $1.3 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 8%, indicating sustained high levels of cross-border capital flow [1] Group 2 - The net inflow of funds from merchandise trade remained stable, and foreign investment in domestic stocks and bonds increased [1] - In August, bank customer foreign exchange income was $638.3 billion, while payments were $635 billion, achieving a slight surplus and maintaining a basic balance in receipts and payments [1] - The current foreign exchange market in China is active, with stable market expectations and balanced supply and demand [1]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices experienced a slight recovery, increasing by approximately 0.30% during the Asian session on September 19, breaking a two-day decline [1] - The price of gold reached a historical high of $3707.35 per ounce on September 17, but faced selling pressure following optimistic labor market data, leading to profit-taking and a shift towards the dollar [1][3] - Analysts noted that profit-taking was driven by a reassessment of Federal Reserve policy changes, with expectations of rate cuts tempered by Chairman Powell's comments indicating a cautious approach to rate adjustments [3] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Technical Indicators - Despite the initiation of a new easing cycle by the Federal Reserve, gold prices have struggled to find upward momentum, remaining above $3600 per ounce [3] - The market's risk-averse sentiment persists, with expectations of two more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year limiting the downside for gold [4] - Technical analysis indicates that gold is facing resistance around $3670, with support at approximately $3630, suggesting a range-bound trading environment [4] Group 3: Broader Economic Indicators - The U.S. dollar index has shown signs of recovery following the Federal Reserve's rate cut, which has further pressured gold prices [4] - Positive initial jobless claims data from the U.S. has also contributed to downward pressure on gold [4]