近期痛苦——从现在开始交易仍将⾛⾼；⾼盛的流动 专家 2025/9/23 12:59 近期的痛苦——交易量从现在开始保持⾼位；⾼盛的资⾦流动专家 | ZeroHedge 作者：泰勒·德登 2025 年 9 ⽉ 23 ⽇星期⼆ - 凌晨 1:25 我们密切关注市场的潜在阻⼒——季节性疲软、养⽼⾦⽉末抛售、企业处于封锁期（但预计流⼊年末的 资⾦将反弹）以及系统性资⾦流转为负值的迹象。 鉴于今年夏天我们看到的低波动⽔平，投资者已经对冲并增加了下⾏保护，但在这种环境下，我们认为 短期痛苦交易将从现在开始。 尽管其他⽀撑指标（即系统性指标）表现为中性，但 机构群体的平衡定位、资⾦流动以及迄今为⽌持续 的零售竞标以及下⽂概述的其他因素为逐步⾛⾼铺平了道路。 1. MF流⼊/流出 根据《全球投资报告》，过去40年中，美联储在维持利率六个⽉或更⻓时间后降息的情况有⼋次。在那些 未导致经济衰退（基本符合当前共识）的降息事件中，流⼊股票基⾦的资⾦在随后的12个⽉内增⻓了 6%，这⽀持了市场温和上涨的预期。 另⼀个要点是：在增⻓、⾮衰退的基本情况下， 标准普尔 500 指数 的六个⽉平均回报率为 +8%，⼗⼆ 个⽉平均回报率为 + ...

Group 1 - The S&P 500 index experiences approximately 20% higher historical price volatility in October compared to other months, according to Goldman Sachs [1][2] - The actual volatility of the S&P 500 index increased by 26% from August to October, indicating a trend of rising market fluctuations [1] - October is a critical period for investors and companies due to year-end performance evaluations, leading to increased trading volume and volatility [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs plans to purchase short-term options on days with significant events and avoid volatility products on non-event days to manage market fluctuations [2] - The upcoming earnings season is expected to be the period with the highest stock price volatility of the year, with over 450 significant events planned in the next four months that could impact global markets [2] - The list of significant events includes high-profile fashion shows and corporate activities, particularly in the healthcare sector, which are expected to create volatility opportunities [2]

高盛股票分析师John Marshall在最新报告中指出，在过去几十年中，10月的实际波动率比其他月份高出 25%以上。10月历来是全年波动性最大的时期，主要受三大因素影响：(1)企业财报季：企业获利压力与 年终业绩评估将使市场交易活动显著增加。(2)宏观经济数据：美联储官员的公开发言，以及即将发布 的最新消费者物价指数(CPI)报告，都将受到投资者高度关注，并可能引发市场震荡。(3)投资人行为： 历史上单一股票的交易量(包括股票和期权交易)通常在十月达到峰值，这显示在业绩压力下，投资者被 迫采取行动。 格隆汇9月26日｜今年美股意外打破了"9月魔咒"的季节性规律，有望创下近15年来最佳9月表现。科技 股表现尤为强劲，截至25日收盘，纳指本月已累计上涨超4.3%。然而，高盛提醒，在享受9月股市涨势 的同时，应对即将到来的10月保持审慎，市场将面临企业财报和宏观经济等多重风险考验，预计股市波 动性将大幅上升。 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. will impose new high tariffs on various imported products starting October 1, including 50% on kitchen cabinets and bathroom sinks, 30% on imported furniture, and 100% on patented and branded drugs [1] - Heavy trucks will also face a 25% tariff, and a previously agreed 15% tariff on EU imported cars and products will be implemented [1] - Goldman Sachs' chief economist noted dissatisfaction within the EU regarding the new trade agreement, suggesting that U.S. consumers may ultimately bear the burden of increased prices due to tariffs [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley's chief economist indicated that U.S. economic growth is slowing, attributing this to tariff policies, with expectations of weak growth in Q4 2023 and Q1 2024 [2] - The forecast for U.S. economic growth in 2026 is only 1.25%, significantly lower than the projected 2.8% for 2024 [2] - There are signs of weakness in the U.S. labor market, with new job additions expected to be only half of initial projections for the period from March 2024 to March 2025 [2] Group 3 - Concerns were raised by major bank CEOs regarding the impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy, predicting inflation, slowed industrial growth, and decreased consumer spending [4] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) highlighted pressures on the U.S. economy, including slowing domestic demand and job growth, with a discussion planned for November regarding these issues [5] - The IMF noted that the downward adjustment of U.S. employment data is greater than historical averages, indicating potential inflation risks primarily driven by tariffs [5]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs maintains an overweight view on China, believing that the A-share market is not overheated yet [1][2] - The firm expects the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in late 2025 and early 2026, which could create a favorable environment for global equity markets, particularly in Asia [2][3] - There is a notable increase in institutional investor participation in the Chinese stock market, including domestic insurance companies and quantitative funds, contributing to healthier market liquidity [4][5] Group 2 - The current financing balance of A-shares is approximately 2.4 trillion RMB, which, despite exceeding the peak in 2015, is relatively low compared to the market capitalization that has doubled over the past decade [5] - Goldman Sachs continues to favor the internet sector and has upgraded the insurance and materials sectors to overweight, indicating a positive outlook for these industries [5] - International investors' attitudes towards China are improving, with more investors willing to reconsider allocations to Chinese assets, reflecting a thawing of previous skepticism [6][7]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs maintains an overweight view on China, believing that A-shares are not overheated yet [2][3] - The firm also favors South Korea and Japan in the Asia-Pacific market [2] - Goldman Sachs' sentiment indicator suggests that if economic fundamentals continue to improve, investor sentiment has room for further upward movement [13] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in October and December 2025, and again in early 2026, bringing rates down to 3.0%–3.25% [4] - This policy path is anticipated to create a favorable environment for global equity markets, particularly in Asia [4] Group 3 - In terms of regional allocation, Goldman Sachs is overweight on both onshore and offshore Chinese markets, while maintaining a balanced view across major asset classes [7] - The firm holds a bearish stance on commodities overall, despite favoring gold and copper [7] - Short-term, Goldman Sachs prefers cash due to strong market performance and tactical pullback risks, but shifts to an overweight on stocks in a 12-month view [7] Group 4 - The current rebound in the Chinese stock market is characterized by a broader and more balanced participation compared to the previous year's rebound, with significant involvement from institutional investors [9] - Domestic insurance companies, quantitative funds, and public funds have notably increased their participation, alongside foreign investors [9] Group 5 - Despite a 35% rise in the Hong Kong market and a 20% rise in A-shares, overall valuation levels remain low [12] - The yield on China's 10-year government bonds is approximately 1.8%, indicating a significant gap compared to stock returns, suggesting relative cheapness [12] - A-share financing balance is around 2.4 trillion RMB, which, while exceeding the 2015 peak, is lower relative to the market capitalization compared to that time [12] Group 6 - Goldman Sachs continues to favor the internet sector and has upgraded the insurance and materials sectors to overweight [13] - The firm has identified themes such as "return of private enterprises" and "Chinese companies going global" as providing diverse investment opportunities [13] - International investors' attitudes towards China are improving, with more willingness to reconsider allocations to Chinese assets [13] Group 7 - Regarding the "anti-involution" theme, feedback from overseas investors is mixed, with stock investors being cautious while macro investors are more optimistic due to rising commodity prices [14] - The "anti-involution" trend is expected to positively impact the profitability of leading companies, while smaller firms may face differentiation challenges [14]

Core Insights - The article highlights the journey of a professional transitioning from a technical background in data science to a career in financial technology at Goldman Sachs, emphasizing the importance of internal mobility and career development opportunities within the firm [2][3]. Group 1: Career Development - The company encourages internal transfers, providing a platform for employees to explore diverse career paths, which enhances their professional growth [3]. - The transition process to a new role was smooth, supported by both the human resources department and supervisors from previous and new teams, ensuring a seamless handover [4]. Group 2: Work Environment - The work culture at Goldman Sachs is characterized by a strong sense of partnership, where collaboration among teams is crucial for successful trading operations [7]. - The company promotes a "coffee chat" culture, facilitating informal interactions that help new employees understand the firm's operations and build connections [7]. Group 3: Daily Responsibilities - The primary responsibility of the information technology team is to develop trading systems that directly impact stock market operations, requiring close communication with traders [5]. - Daily tasks involve monitoring system performance, addressing trader inquiries during market hours, and focusing on personal projects during quieter periods [6].

Group 1 - The "Phoenix Bay Area Financial Forum 2025" was held in Guangzhou, focusing on the theme "New Pattern, New Path" and gathering global elites from politics, business, and academia to explore development opportunities amidst changing circumstances [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley's Chief Economist for China, Xing Zhiqiang, highlighted that the Federal Reserve's initiation of a rate-cutting cycle is a focal point for global financial markets, predicting a cumulative rate cut of nearly 125 basis points from the current level above 4% to around 3% by mid-next year [3] - Xing noted that U.S. immigration and tariff policies are exerting continuous pressure on inflation, with an expected U.S. inflation rate (CPI) maintaining around 3% [3] - A significant change is anticipated as U.S. real interest rates decline, potentially reducing the demand for the dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds, leading to increased volatility in the U.S. Treasury market [3] Group 3 - Future Federal Reserve chairs may face increased political pressure, complicating the process of raising interest rates to curb inflation, which could be detrimental to the dollar [4] - The long-held beliefs in "American exceptionalism" and "the dollar's dominance" are undergoing a reassessment, with markets likely to reevaluate the U.S.'s long-term fiscal discipline and monetary credibility [4]

摩根士丹利中国首席经济学家邢自强出席本次论坛并发表主题演讲。邢自强认为，美国政策不确定性与美联储降息周期的开启，为人民币国际化带来了外部 机遇，但能否把握机遇，关键仍在国内经济改革的深化。 邢自强表示，美联储降息以及长期通胀将导致美国实际利率将迅速收窄，其债券的实际收益率也随之缩窄，甚至可能低于其他主要经济体，这将削弱全球资 本对美元和美债的需求，美元贬值在所难免，美债也会相对缺乏吸引力，甚至出现较大的波动。 邢自强还认为，下一任美联储主席可能面临更大的政治压力，影响政策独立性，使得未来通过加息来抑制通胀更为困难。"将来可能有点典型的类似于新兴 市场中央银行面临的困境，加息困难，降息容易。这种情况不利于美元。" 凤凰网财经讯9月23-24日，由凤凰卫视、凤凰网主办的"凤凰湾区财经论坛2025"在广州举行，本届论坛以"新格局·新路径"为主题，汇聚全球政商学界精英， 共同洞察变局脉络、探寻发展新机。 摩根士丹利中国首席经济学家邢自强 邢自强解读称，这标志着美国经济"例外论"与美元资产"一枝独秀论"进入"祛魅"阶段，为人民币国际化创造了难得的外部机遇，但能否把握关键在国内改 革。 在这一背景下，人民币国际化迎来战略 ...

格隆汇9月25日｜高盛：将2025年下半年的全球矿山(铜)供应预测下调了16万吨，将2026年的预测下调 了20万吨。将2025/2026年铜矿产量增长预期下调至同比+0.2%/1.9%，此前预期为+0.8%/2.2%。最新中 断意味着对2025年12月伦敦金属交易所(LME)铜价9,700美元/吨的预测风险偏向上行，预计铜价将稳定 在10,200至10,500美元/吨区间。对2027年前铜价的长期看涨预测为每吨10,750美元。 ...