1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - The overall pressure on shipping capacity remains high, with weekly average capacities of 295,000 and 322,300 TEU in July and August 2025 respectively. According to market rumors, the weekly average capacity in August will drop to 310,000 TEU, but the pressure is still significant [2] - The downstream is booking shipping space for the second half of July (week 29 - 30). Shipping company quotes for the second half of July are mainly stable, but some companies have secretly lowered prices for the last week of July [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Contract Prices - EC2508 closed at 2027.2, down 0.17%; EC2510 closed at 1440.7, up 4.25%; EC2512 closed at 1580.5, up 2.57%; EC2602 closed at 1386.1, up 3.13%; EC2604 closed at 1218.6, up 2.22%; EC2606 closed at 1382.2, up 3.78% [2] - The month - to - month spreads of different contracts have changed, such as EC2508 - 2510 being 586.5, down from the previous day [2] 3.2 Spot Freight Indexes - SCFIS (European line) on July 14, 2025, was 2421.94/2099 dollars/TEU, up 7.26%/-0.10% from the previous period [2] - CCFI on July 11, 2025, was 1726.41, up 1.90% from the previous period; NCFI was 1435.21, down 0.50%; TCI was 1019.55, unchanged [2] 3.3 Shipping Capacity Arrangement - The weekly average shipping capacities in July and August 2025 are 295,000 and 322,300 TEU respectively. According to market rumors, the weekly average capacity in August will drop to 310,000 TEU, and the capacities from week 31 - 35 are 311,000, 314,000, 310,000, and 294,000 TEU respectively [2] 3.4 Recent European Line Quotes - The downstream is booking shipping space for the second half of July (week 29 - 30). Shipping company quotes for the second half of July are mainly stable. Week 29's quotes are around 3400 dollars, and some companies have secretly lowered prices for week 30 by about 200 dollars, with an average of 3300 dollars (equivalent to 2300 points on the disk) [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The EC market shows an oscillating upward trend. The recent strength is mainly affected by the tariff extension and Maersk's better - than - expected cabin opening. The cargo shipment from the Far East to the United States will continue for some time, which is beneficial for August. The decline amplitude from the high point in August is expected to slow down, thus the discount is repaired. Today, long - position holders shifted their positions. With the new round of peace talks in Gaza on the verge of collapse and the increasing possibility of a summit between Chinese and US leaders, as the freight rate of the 08 contract is gradually determined and the range becomes clearer, it follows the delivery logic, and the 10 - contract gradually replaces the 08 - contract as the main contract and takes over the main role of the expected logic [8]. - In late July, the spot market basically followed the situation in the first half of the month. The average values of different alliances were around 3200 - 3500. Maersk's quotations were higher than the market's expectation of a decline starting from the third week, so the main contract performed strongly. The market on the disk oscillated upward this week due to Maersk's flat or higher - than - expected prices in the third and fourth weeks of July. The main contract repaired from a deep - discount state, but the upward trend is expected to be limited. Shipping companies may have the habit of announcing price increases in August, but the actual implementation will face great supply - side pressure [9]. - Hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread [10]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Shipping Derivatives Data - **Freight Rate Index**: The current values of Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI), China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI), and other sub - indexes are 1733, 1314, etc. The changes from the previous values are - 1.71%, - 2.18%, etc. For example, SCFI - US West increased by 5.03%, while SCFIS - US West decreased by 18.69%, and SCFIS - Northwest Europe increased by 7.22% [4]. - **Contract**: The current values of contracts such as EC2506, EC2508 are 1382.2, 2027.2, etc. The changes from the previous values are 3.78%, - 0.17%, etc. For example, EC2510 increased by 4.25%, and EC2512 increased by 2.57% [4]. - **Position**: The current positions of EC2606, EC2508 are 567, 27891, etc. The changes from the previous values are 60, - 1009, etc. For example, the position of EC2410 increased by 3971 [4]. - **Monthly Spread**: The current values of spreads such as 10 - 12, 12 - 2 are 586.5, - 139.8, etc. The changes from the previous values are - 62.1, 19.1, etc. For example, the 12 - 4 spread increased by 13.1 [4]. International News - Israel has protests demanding a hostage agreement. Israel accepted a 60 - day cease - fire and hostage - release draft proposed by Qatar, but Hamas rejected it. The core of the deadlock lies in the map parameters of the Israeli army's withdrawal from Gaza. Israel will propose a new map plan next Monday [5]. - The Israeli Defense Minister said that if Iran threatens Israel, Israel will strike Iran again [6]. - Russian President Putin is privately urging Iran to accept a "zero enrichment" nuclear agreement in exchange for the possibility of a new nuclear agreement with the US [6]. - The US imposed a 30% tariff on the EU and Mexico, escalating trade tensions [6]. - The Philippine government ordered shipping agencies to avoid the Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea due to attacks on commercial ships. The Philippines supplies about 35% of the world's seafarers and takes measures to protect its nationals [7]. - US Secretary of State Rubio said that the possibility of a summit between US President Trump and China is high after meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi [7].

Group 1 - The Wanjiac ZHONGZHENG Hong Kong Stock Connect Central Enterprise Dividend ETF (159333) closed down 0.72% on July 15, with a trading volume of 40.26 million yuan [1] - The fund was established on August 21, 2024, with an annual management fee of 0.50% and a custody fee of 0.10% [1] - As of July 14, 2024, the fund had 430 million shares and a total size of 598 million yuan, showing a 0.23% decrease in shares and a 16.42% increase in size year-to-date [1] Group 2 - The ETF's recent trading activity shows a cumulative trading amount of 664 million yuan over the last 20 trading days, with an average daily trading amount of 33.18 million yuan [1] - The current fund manager, Yang Kun, has managed the fund since its inception, achieving a return of 39.05% during his tenure [1] Group 3 - The top holdings of the ETF include COSCO Shipping Holdings, Orient Overseas International, CNOOC, CITIC Bank, China Petroleum, China National Foreign Trade, Bank of China, China Shenhua Energy, Bank of Communications, and China Unicom, with respective holding percentages [2] - The largest holding is COSCO Shipping Holdings at 7.71%, followed by Orient Overseas International at 3.06% and CNOOC at 2.77% [2]

Group 1: Trade Performance - In the first half of the year, China's total goods trade value reached 21.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, with exports at 13 trillion yuan (up 7.2%) and imports at 8.79 trillion yuan (down 2.7%) [1] - In June, the trade scale reached 3.85 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%, with exports at 2.34 trillion yuan (up 7.2%) and imports at 1.51 trillion yuan (up 2.3%) [1] Group 2: Shipping Market Response - The strong resilience and vitality of China's foreign trade have translated into increased demand in the shipping market, leading to significant gains in the Hong Kong shipping and port sectors since April [1] - Notable stock price increases from April lows to recent highs include China COSCO Shipping (up 35.4%), Seaspan Corporation (up 82.9%), and Yang Ming Marine Transport (up 233%) [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Tariff Impact - In June, the shipping sector experienced a period of consolidation, with tariff policy changes significantly affecting market sentiment [2] - The announcement of new tariffs by Trump on products from over 20 countries raised doubts about the sustainability of shipping demand, leading to declines in several shipping stocks [2] Group 4: Capital Flows and Stock Performance - Despite tariff uncertainties, there was a notable increase in southbound capital supporting the shipping sector, with significant increases in holdings of China COSCO Shipping and China COSCO Energy by southbound funds [3][4] - As of July 11, the holdings of China COSCO Shipping increased from 8.86 billion shares (29.81%) to 9.99 billion shares (34.68%) [4] Group 5: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The shipping sector's outlook remains positive, with the Shanghai International Shipping Research Center reporting a shipping prosperity index of 120.81 points for Q2 2025, indicating a favorable market environment [13] - The global economic recovery and increasing international trade volumes are expected to further boost demand for shipping services, particularly with China's trade with Belt and Road countries reaching 11.29 trillion yuan, a 4.7% increase [14][15] Group 6: Structural Changes and Innovations - The shipping industry is actively optimizing its structure, with major companies focusing on matching capacity with demand to avoid oversupply [15] - Environmental regulations and technological advancements are driving the industry towards greener practices and digital transformation, enhancing operational efficiency and long-term competitiveness [15][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The freight rate is fluctuating at a high level. The 8 - month contract is in a state of high - level volatility and game for delivery, with expectations of price support. The 10 - month contract is mainly for short - allocation in the off - season, and attention should be paid to the downward slope of the freight rate. The 12 - month contract still follows the off - peak and peak season pattern, but the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will reopen [3][4]. - The strategy includes a volatile main contract for unilateral trading, and for arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on the 12 - month contract and short on the 10 - month contract, and short the 10 - month contract on rallies [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs I. Futures Price - As of July 15, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index for European routes was 77,426.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 58,106.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1386.10, 1218.60, 1382.20, 2027.20, 1440.70, and 1580.50 respectively [5][6]. II. Spot Price - On July 11, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 2099.00 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 2194.00 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 4172.00 US dollars/FEU. On July 14, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 2421.94 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1266.59 points [6]. III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of July 11, 2025, 141 container ships had been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.194 million TEU. Among them, 46 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 689,300 TEU, and 7 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 159,880 TEU [6]. IV. Supply Chain - Geopolitically, representatives of the Syrian regime and the Syrian Kurdish armed forces met and negotiated in Damascus. The Syrian regime advocates "one Syria, one army, one government" and opposes separatism [2]. - The average weekly capacity from China to European base ports in the remaining 3 weeks of July was 303,500 TEU, and the monthly average weekly capacity in August was 310,000 TEU. There were 5 blank sailings in July (4 by the OA alliance) and 2 in August (both by the OA alliance). Maersk plans to add an extra - sailing ship in WEEK34 [2]. V. Demand and European Economy - In the off - season of April and October, the freight rate is usually at a low level. In the fourth quarter, due to Western holidays, the shipping volume is high, and shipping companies adjust supply to keep freight rates high. The price in December is generally 10% higher than that in October in normal years [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating an expectation of outperforming the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [18]. Core Insights - The company is projected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 7.95 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 151% [1]. - The second quarter of 2025 is expected to see a net profit of around 4.38 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 127% [1]. - The company continues to strengthen its market position in traditional routes such as Shanghai-Japan and Shanghai-Taiwan, while also expanding its operations in Southeast Asia, contributing to significant profit growth [7]. Financial Performance - For 2025, the total revenue is estimated at 6.773 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 13.5% [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is projected to be 1.243 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 21.8% compared to 2024 [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is expected to be 0.96 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12 [3]. Market Performance - The China Container Freight Index (CCFI) for Japan and Southeast Asia showed a year-on-year increase of 29% in the first half of 2025, while the Taiwan Freight Index (TWFI) increased by 26% [2]. - In the second quarter of 2025, CCFI for Japan rose by 33%, and TWFI for Taiwan increased by 30% [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests an upward revision of the company's net profit forecasts for 2025-2027, now estimated at 12.4 billion, 10.5 billion, and 10.5 billion yuan respectively [7]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 14.4 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 25% from the current price of 11.50 yuan [3][7].

Investment Rating - The transportation industry is rated as "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The shipping rates for oil tankers in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico have slightly increased, while the container shipping rates for the US routes have rebounded and the European routes remain stable [3][13] - Hefei is building the first national drone-sharing airport network, and Pudong Airport has seen a 23% year-on-year increase in inbound and outbound passengers in the first half of the year [3][16] - Jitu Express reported a 65.9% year-on-year increase in package volume in Southeast Asia for Q2, marking the highest growth rate since its listing [3][24] Industry Dynamics - **Shipping and Ports**: The VLCC market has returned to a supply-demand balance, with overall vessel supply remaining ample. The shipping rate for a 270,000-ton vessel from Ras Tanura to Ningbo was reported at WS49.24, up 2.48% from July 3 [3][14] - **Container Shipping**: The Shanghai port's export rates to Europe and the US have shown slight fluctuations, with rates to the US West and East coasts increasing by 5.0% and 1.2% respectively [3][15] - **Aviation**: The first half of 2025 saw Pudong Airport handle 18.26 million passengers, a 23.44% increase year-on-year, with new international routes contributing to this growth [3][18] - **Logistics**: Jitu Express's package volume in Southeast Asia reached 1.69 billion packages in Q2, with a 65.9% increase year-on-year, while the overall global package volume grew by 23.5% [3][24] Investment Recommendations - Focus on the equipment and manufacturing export chain, recommending companies such as COSCO Shipping, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and Huamao Logistics [4] - Pay attention to the low-altitude economy investment opportunities, particularly in companies like CITIC Offshore Helicopter [4] - Explore investment opportunities in the highway and railway sectors, recommending companies such as Sichuan Chengyu, Gansu Guangdong Expressway, and Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway [4] - Consider investment opportunities in the cruise and ferry sectors, recommending Bohai Ferry and Haixia Shares [4] - Monitor e-commerce and express delivery investment opportunities, recommending SF Holding, Jitu Express, and Yunda Express [5] - Look into aviation industry investment opportunities, recommending China National Aviation, China Southern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and others [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - SCFIS maintains an upward trend, and the far - month contracts are making up for the premium. The market is influenced by geopolitical conflicts, tariff policies, and the Middle East situation, with mixed long and short information, leading to wide - range fluctuations in the market. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates. It is recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [1][4]. - Short - term, the market may rebound. Risk - preferring investors are advised to take partial profit when the market surges today. In the long - term, take profit when the contracts rise and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback before making further decisions [1][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Freight Index - On July 14, compared with July 11, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route rose 7.3% to 2421.94 points, while the SCFIS for the US - West route fell 18.7% to 1266.59 points. The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) dropped 3.19% to 1218.03 points, the NCFI for the European route fell 0.50% to 1435.21 points, and the NCFI for the US - West route rose 0.85% to 1186.59 points. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index fell 30.20 points, the SCFI for the European route dropped 0.10% to 2099 USD/TEU, and the SCFI for the US - West route rose 5.03% to 2194 USD/FEU. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) fell 2.2%, the CCFI for the European route rose 1.9%, and the CCFI for the US - West route fell 5.2% [1]. Economic Data - In the Eurozone in June, the preliminary manufacturing PMI was 49.4, the preliminary services PMI was 50 (a two - month high), and the preliminary composite PMI was 50.2. The Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2. The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, up 2.1 points from May. In the US in June, the preliminary Markit manufacturing PMI was 52, the preliminary services PMI was 53.1, and the preliminary composite PMI was 52.8 [2]. Market Situation - Trump continues to impose tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, and some shipping companies have announced freight rate increases. The US plans to impose a 30% tariff on Mexico and the EU, and the Middle East situation may ease. The market is filled with mixed long and short information, causing wide - range fluctuations in the market [4]. Trading Strategies - Short - term: The short - term market may rebound. Risk - preferring investors who went long on the 2510 contract below 1300 are advised to take partial profit when the market surges today. For the EC2512 contract, short lightly above 1650 and set stop - loss and take - profit levels. - Arbitrage: In the context of international turmoil, the market is mainly in a positive arbitrage structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or participate with a light position. - Long - term: Take profit when each contract rises, and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback before determining the subsequent direction [5]. Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 16%. - The company's margin for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 26%. - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is affected by Trump's tariff policies, but the market's sensitivity to it has decreased. The proportion of medium - and long - term funds in the capital market is expected to gradually increase, and A - shares have high investment value in the medium and long term [3][9]. - Glass and soda ash are in the cycle of inventory digestion. The supply adjustment is deepening, and attention should be paid to the supply - demand digestion process [2][15]. - The prices of gold and silver may continue to be strong, but there are risks of Trump's threats being realized. Copper prices may fluctuate within a range, and zinc prices may have wide - range fluctuations [17][19][20]. - The prices of crude oil, methanol, and other energy - chemical products are affected by factors such as tariffs, supply - demand, and policies, with different trends [11][12]. - The prices of iron ore, steel, and other black commodities are expected to be strong in the short term, and the prices of coal and coke are affected by policies and demand [22][23][24]. - The prices of bean and rapeseed meal and oils are expected to be in a volatile pattern, and the price of shipping on the European container line is affected by market expectations [25][26][27]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Key News - **International News**: The US regulatory authorities issued a blue - book on cryptocurrency custody. Trump will discuss tariffs with other countries and has announced new tariff policies [1][5]. - **Domestic News**: In the first half of 2025, China's foreign trade volume increased steadily, with exports growing by 7.2% and imports decreasing by 2.7%. The financial data in June were better than expected [6][7]. 3.2 Performance of External Markets - The S&P 500, T STOXX50, and other indices had different degrees of increase or decrease on July 14 compared with July 11. For example, the S&P 500 rose by 0.14%, and ICE Brent crude oil fell by 2.11% [8]. 3.3 Morning Comments on Main Varieties - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The US three major indices rose, and the stock index fluctuated slightly. The proportion of medium - and long - term funds in the capital market is expected to increase, and A - shares have high investment value [3][9]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond prices fluctuated greatly. The central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, and the market risk preference has increased [10]. - **Energy - Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil fell at night. Trump's tariff policies and OPEC's production - increase plan have increased the uncertainty of oil prices [11]. - **Methanol**: Methanol rose at night. The inventory of coastal methanol increased, and the short - term trend was slightly bullish [12]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins were in a consolidation phase. The cost support weakened, and attention should be paid to the supply contraction during the summer equipment maintenance [14]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures rebounded. The supply adjustment was deepening, and attention should be paid to the supply - demand digestion process [2][15]. - **Rubber**: The price of natural rubber was affected by climate and supply - demand. The short - term upward space was limited, and there might be a callback [16]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: The prices of gold and silver rose and then fell. The short - term trend was affected by Trump's tariff policies and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [17]. - **Copper**: The copper price fell at night. The copper price might fluctuate within a range under the influence of multiple factors [18][19]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price fell at night. The short - term zinc price might have wide - range fluctuations [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply of lithium carbonate decreased weekly, and the demand increased slightly. The overall market was in a volatile pattern [4][21]. - **Black Commodities** - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price was expected to be strong in the short term. The demand was supported, and the supply might increase in the second half of the year [22]. - **Steel**: The steel price was expected to be strong in the short term. The supply - demand contradiction was not significant, and the cost was rising [23]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke were affected by policies and demand. The supply pressure still existed [24]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Bean and Rapeseed Meal**: The prices of bean and rapeseed meal were in a strong - side volatile pattern. The US soybean production and demand data were adjusted, and the final inventory increased [25]. - **Oils**: The prices of oils were in a strong - side volatile pattern. The demand for palm oil was strong, and the overall market was in a volatile pattern [26]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping on the European Line**: The price of shipping on the European container line was in a volatile pattern. The market was still gambling on the peak - season price space, and attention should be paid to the release of August shipping prices [27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of the container shipping index has switched from 2508 to 2510. It is recommended to hold a light - short position in the 2510 contract and use low - long positions in the 2512 and 02 contracts for protection [10][13]. - The SCFIS index on July 14 was better than expected, which may drive the 2508 contract to have a subsidy - water space of 50 - 100 points [10]. - The spot freight rate is expected to decline gradually, with the decline rate accelerating in late August. Different scenarios are considered for the valuation of the 2508 contract, and the 2510 contract should be shorted in the long - term due to the traditional off - season [13]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contracts**: The 2510 contract increased its positions by 3971 lots, closing at 1440.7 points with a 4% increase; the 2508 contract decreased its positions by 1009 lots, closing at 2027.2 points with a 0.53% increase [1]. - **Freight Rate Index**: On July 14, the SCFIS European route index was 2421.94 points, a week - on - week increase of 7.3%. The SCFIS US - West route index was 1266.59 points, a week - on - week decrease of 18.7%. The SCFI European route index was 2099 $/TEU, a bi - weekly decrease of 0.1%, and the SCFI US - West route index was 2194 $/FEU, a bi - weekly increase of 5% [1]. - **Spot Freight Rates**: In late July, MSC and Yang Ming reduced prices, the Gemini Alliance slightly increased prices, and the OA and PA Alliances (ONE and HMM) kept their rates unchanged. The market freight rate center was stable at around 3350 $/FEU [11]. - **Shipping Capacity**: The weekly average shipping capacity in July was 301,000 TEU/week, and it was revised down to 335,000 TEU in week 31. The weekly average shipping capacity in August was 315,000 TEU/week, and there were 2 empty sailings and 8 pending voyages in September. The loading of the Gemini and OA Alliances in late July was relatively optimistic, while MSC faced increased cargo - collecting pressure [12]. 3.2 Macro News - Trump plans to manufacture top - level weapons for NATO, and NATO may supply weapons to other countries. NATO Secretary - General Rutte said that European countries are "stepping up" in weapons supply [9]. - Israel submitted its third version of the plan for the Israeli army to withdraw from Gaza. The EU is preparing to impose counter - tariffs on $84 billion worth of US goods if the US - EU trade negotiation fails [9]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of the container shipping index (European route) is 1, indicating a neutral trend [14].