基金分析报告 周期成长基金池 202511：今年实现高超额 2025 年 11 月 18 日 ➢ 周期成长投资策略是在周期行业中挖掘能够脱离行业周期性，实现自身持续 成长的个股。在一些渗透率已经较高、且行业增长空间相对较小的偏周期行业中， 部分公司由于其具有强竞争优势和议价能力、好商业模式和战略布局、公司治理 和技术进步等优势，使得公司的业绩逐渐脱离了行业的周期性，实现较为稳定的 增长。当前选出的周期成长赛道主要分散在基础化工、机械、计算机等行业。 ➢ 周期成长型基金池：受市场风格切换影响较为明显。2014 年 2 月 7 日至 2025 年 11 月 11 日，基金池年化收益率为 17.46%，相对于偏股基金指数年化 超额收益为 7.63%，年化波动为 24.99%，年化夏普为 0.70，整体弹性较高。今 年以来周期成长组合实现 14.69%的超额收益。 ➢ 行业配置、选股和动态均贡献了较高的超额收益。基金池整体能力水平均衡， 在最新一期显著提升了消费和制造板块的占比，减少了对医药和 TMT 板块的配 置。 ➢ 周期成长型基金定义与精选。主要以持仓行业和个股的属性进行周期成长型 基金的定义，选择近一年基金重 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share bull market is far from over, with "Bull Market 1.0" expected to peak in spring 2026, followed by a potential "Bull Market 2.0" in the second half of 2026 [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Global competition is intensifying, necessitating a shift in mindset for A-shares to embrace competitive thinking, which will drive market dynamics [1] - The transition of Chinese residents' asset allocation towards equities is still in its early stages, indicating further potential for A-share liquidity improvement [1][2] Group 2: Bull Market Phases - "Bull Market 1.0" is anticipated to reach a peak in spring 2026, with a subsequent transition to "Bull Market 2.0" in the latter half of 2026 [2] - The second phase, "Bull Market 2.0," is expected to be a comprehensive bull market driven by improvements in fundamental cycles, emerging industry trends, and increased global influence of China [2][3] Group 3: Profit Forecasts - Predictions for 2026 indicate two significant milestones: the first effective rebound in profitability for all A-shares in five years and the first double-digit growth in net profit attributable to shareholders in five years [3] - Forecasted year-on-year growth rates for net profit attributable to shareholders are 7% for 2025 and 14% for 2026, with substantial quarterly growth expected [3] Group 4: Sector Trends - The transition from "Bull Market 1.0" to "Bull Market 2.0" will see high-dividend defensive stocks outperforming, while the latter phase will focus on cyclical recovery and growth sectors [3] - Key structural themes for 2026 include recovery trades in cyclical sectors, technology industry trends with opportunities in AI, and enhanced manufacturing influence [3]

Group 1 - The chemical ETF (516020) showed weak performance, with an intraday drop of 3.1% and a trading volume of 117 million yuan [1] - Among the constituent stocks, Xinzhou Bang, Duofluor, and Tianci Materials experienced the largest declines, with drops of 9.41%, 9.32%, and 9.27% respectively [1] - Conversely, Guangdong Hongda, Lanxiao Technology, and Tongcheng New Materials performed relatively well, with increases of 0.36%, 0.29%, and 0.08% respectively [1] Group 2 - Wanhua Chemical's MDI capacity expansion project in Fujian has recently completed, increasing its capacity to 1.5 million tons per year, reinforcing its global leadership in the polyurethane sector [1] - Juhua Group is advancing its "three zeros" project for digital transformation, enhancing safety, environmental protection, and energy efficiency metrics through a unified data platform [1] - Shenwan Hongyuan Securities indicates structural opportunities in the basic chemical and chemical products industry, with a 20% coordinated production cut in the caprolactam industry and price increases [1] Group 3 - The chemical ETF and its linked funds passively track a specialized chemical index, with the top ten weighted stocks including Wanhua Chemical, Yalku Co., Tianci Materials, Juhua Co., and others [2]

Group 1 - The A-share market continues to exhibit a wide fluctuation pattern, with major indices experiencing weekly declines and market volume shrinking again. Financing increased slightly compared to the previous week, and stock ETFs saw net inflows, with TMT-themed ETFs being the main contributors [4] - In the fund market, pharmaceutical-themed funds performed well, while TMT-themed funds experienced significant pullbacks. Various ETFs across different investment scopes saw inflows, particularly TMT and sci-tech themed ETFs, with notable inflows into the Hang Seng Internet ETF and gold ETFs [5] - The convertible bond market saw a slight increase, with both the convertible bond and equity markets rising since the beginning of 2025, although the convertible bond market's performance was weaker. The demand for high-quality convertible bonds remains strong, and prices are at relatively high levels, necessitating careful selection [6] Group 2 - The energy storage sector is thriving, leading to price increases in lithium-ion battery materials. Short-term supply and demand are tight, with significant price hikes in lithium hexafluorophosphate. The profitability of iron phosphate is expected to recover, and prices for lithium iron phosphate materials are entering an upward channel [8] - The pharmaceutical sector saw a rise in flu-like cases, prompting attention to flu vaccines, respiratory virus testing, and cold medicine sectors. The pharmaceutical index rose by 3.29%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.37 percentage points [8] - The company U (688220.SH) reported a revenue of 2.88 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13.42%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 327 million yuan, a reduction in loss by 85 million yuan, with a gross margin of 25.38%, up by 1.92 percentage points year-on-year [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the electronic-grade materials sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment in this area [1]. Core Insights - The new materials sector outperformed the broader market but underperformed compared to the basic chemical sector, with a weekly change of 0.32% for the new materials index, while the basic chemical index saw a change of 2.61% [9]. - Significant price increases were observed in electronic-grade sulfuric acid (+26.09%), 6F (+24.69%), and PVDF (+4.00%), while notable declines were seen in oxygen (-2.61%), lysine (-1.83%), and epoxy resin (-1.38%) [22][26]. - The demand for energy storage has driven a price surge in the electrolyte supply chain, with battery-grade vinyl carbonate (VC) prices rising nearly 30% over two months, reaching approximately 66,000 yuan per ton [10]. - India is set to launch a nationwide Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) policy, with aviation fuel demand projected to reach 15-16 million tons by 2030 and over 30 million tons by 2040, potentially reducing emissions by about 80% [11]. - The Chinese government aims to achieve a wind and solar installed capacity of 3.6 billion kilowatts by 2035, significantly increasing the share of non-fossil energy consumption [11]. Summary by Sections Industry Update - The new materials sector showed a weekly increase, with the top gainers being companies like Yongtai Technology and Aoke Co., while the biggest losers included Xiangyuan New Materials and Xinhang New Materials [9][26]. - The report highlights the strong performance of new energy materials and optical films within the new materials sector [9]. Trading Data - The Huachuang Chemical Industry Index stood at 67.92, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.66% but a year-on-year decrease of 21.52% [20]. - The industry price percentile is at 15.54% over the past decade, indicating a slight increase [20]. New Materials Subsector Tracking - The report tracks various subsectors, including new energy materials, consumer electronics materials, and hydrogen energy, noting significant developments and price movements in each [6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic production capabilities in new materials, particularly in light of U.S.-China trade tensions [12][13].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the bull market is not over, with a significant shift in Chinese residents' asset allocation towards equities still in its early stages [3][34][51] - The transition from "following" to "leading" in external circulation is a key theme, highlighting the need for A-shares to embrace competitive thinking [3][12][20] - The report outlines a two-phase bull market, with "Bull Market 1.0" expected to peak in spring 2026 and "Bull Market 2.0" potentially starting in the second half of 2026 [4][6][7] Group 1: Competitive Landscape - Global competition is intensifying, and A-shares must adopt a competitive mindset to navigate this environment [3][20][22] - The shift in external circulation from "following" to "leading" reflects China's growing competitiveness and the need to enhance its global influence [3][12][19] - The report suggests that the A-share market can reflect the outcomes of competitive events, impacting pricing and risk preferences [3][22] Group 2: Asset Allocation Trends - The report introduces a "resident asset allocation migration degree indicator," indicating that the migration towards equities is still in its early phase, with significant potential for growth [34][36] - Historical data shows that the peak of equity allocation occurred in 2021, followed by a decline until 2024, with a rebound expected in 2025 [36][51] - The report highlights that the accumulation of profit-making effects in the A-share market is undergoing a qualitative change, which will improve conditions for capital inflow over time [3][34][51] Group 3: Bull Market Phases - "Bull Market 1.0" is characterized by a focus on technology sectors, particularly AI, which may face short-term adjustments but is expected to continue its long-term trend [4][6][7] - "Bull Market 2.0" is anticipated to be a comprehensive bull market driven by cyclical improvements in fundamentals, emerging industry trends, and increased asset allocation towards equities [4][6][7] - The report predicts that by mid-2026, a clearer visibility of supply-demand dynamics will emerge, supporting the transition to "Bull Market 2.0" [4][6][7] Group 4: Industry Outlook - The report identifies key sectors for investment, including technology, manufacturing, and emerging industries, which are expected to benefit from cyclical improvements and policy support [4][6][7] - The anticipated recovery in the manufacturing sector and the emergence of new demand sources are crucial for the overall market outlook [4][6][7] - The report suggests that the transition from "Bull Market 1.0" to "Bull Market 2.0" will involve a shift in investment focus from high-growth technology stocks to cyclical and value-oriented sectors [4][6][7]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that the main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets experienced a net outflow of 168.44 billion yuan on November 17, with the ChiNext board seeing a net outflow of 75.05 billion yuan and the CSI 300 index stocks a net outflow of 83.5 billion yuan [2] - Among the 17 industries tracked, 10 industries saw a net inflow of main funds, with the computer industry leading at 43.31 billion yuan, followed by the national defense and military industry at 26.57 billion yuan [2] - The pharmaceutical and biological industry faced the largest net outflow of 62.16 billion yuan, while the electronic industry had a net outflow of 53.12 billion yuan [2] Group 2 - In terms of individual stocks, 94 stocks had a net inflow of over 1 billion yuan, with 20 stocks exceeding 3 billion yuan in net inflow [3] - The stock of Zhongdian Xindong, involved in smart city projects, saw a net inflow of 8.63 billion yuan, marking a significant breakthrough in the urban rail transit sector [3] - Longcheng Military Industry also attracted a net inflow of 7.9 billion yuan, benefiting from a strong opening in the military equipment sector [3] Group 3 - Conversely, 100 stocks experienced a net outflow of over 1 billion yuan, with three leading stocks seeing significant outflows: Ningde Times at 17.62 billion yuan, and both Sunshine Power and Century Huatuo exceeding 10 billion yuan [5] - Century Huatuo's stock hit a limit down, closing with a drop of 9.16% [5] - In the tail end of trading, the total net inflow was 2.96 billion yuan, with Zhongdian Xinchuan leading at 2.6 billion yuan [6][7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The marginal improvement in prices and the expectation of a loose macro - policy environment may jointly drive the A - share market into a stage of "shock upward, structure - dominated". The moderate rise in CPI and the bottom - rebound of PPI mean that the economic downward pressure has eased, but the demand recovery has not formed a strong trend. In the short term, the market is more likely to present a market feature dominated by liquidity and structured opportunities [9]. - The cyclical sector is expected to remain strong, but its sustainability depends on the resonance of external demand and the real - estate chain. The technology - growth sector will still be the medium - term main line, and the service consumption will remain relatively stable, while the real - estate chain still needs further policy implementation [9]. - The current market does not need to be pessimistic. It is recommended to maintain a relatively positive position structure, but not blindly chase the index. The optimal strategy is to conduct structured allocation around the dual main lines of "anti - involution + AI application" [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Most of the major market indices fell last week, while the Shanghai 50 remained stable. Among the major industries, the healthcare and daily - consumption indices performed relatively well, with weekly changes of 3.27% and 2.72% respectively; the information - technology and industrial indices performed weakly, with weekly changes of - 4.27% and - 1.28% respectively [10][11][16]. - Among the 30 Shenwan primary industries, 19 industries rose. The industries with larger increases were textile and apparel, commercial retail, and beauty care, with increases of 4.41%, 4.06%, and 3.75% respectively; the industries with larger declines were communication, electronics, and computer, with declines of 4.77%, 4.77%, and 3.03% respectively [10][19]. - The average daily trading volume of Wind All - A last week was 20438.27 billion yuan (the previous value was 20123.50 billion yuan), at a relatively high historical level (89.50% of the three - year historical quantile) [22]. - As of November 14, 2025, the valuation (PE_TTM) of Wind All - A was 22.20, unchanged from last week, at the 90.70% quantile of the past five - year history. Among the 30 Shenwan primary industries, 19 industries' valuations (PE_TTM) recovered [27]. Market Observation - The inflation data in October showed an overall upward trend, confirming the continuation of the weak inflation pattern macroscopically. The CPI rose moderately, and the PPI bottomed out and rebounded. The improvement in industrial product prices may boost the overall market risk appetite [6]. - After the release of inflation data, most of the A - share consumer and cyclical industries rose last week, while the technology sector corrected significantly. The industry adjustment logic was consistent with the inflation data [6]. Investment Suggestions - The cyclical sector may maintain a certain strength, but its sustainability depends on external demand and the real - estate chain. The technology - growth sector will still be the medium - term main line, and service consumption will remain relatively stable, while the real - estate chain still needs further policy implementation [9]. - The risk preferences of different capital channels and sectors are differentiated, reflecting the increasing market uncertainty. The market may maintain a shrinking and volatile market, with sector rotation [9]. - It is recommended to maintain a relatively positive position structure, but not blindly chase the index. The optimal strategy is to conduct structured allocation around the dual main lines of "anti - involution + AI application" [9]. Economic Calendar - This week, domestic economic data to be concerned about include the October bank settlement and sales of foreign exchange data and the China Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for 1 - year and 5 - year terms. Overseas economic data include the November New York Fed Manufacturing Index, initial and continued jobless claims, GDP, price data, September and October unemployment rates, and the change in non - farm payrolls in October [30].

沪指11月17日下跌0.46%，申万所属行业中，今日上涨的有17个，涨幅居前的行业为计算机、国防军 工，涨幅分别为1.67%、1.59%。基础化工行业今日上涨0.74%。跌幅居前的行业为医药生物、银行，跌 幅分别为1.73%、1.31%。 资金面上看，两市主力资金全天净流出319.53亿元，今日有6个行业主力资金净流入，计算机行业主力 资金净流入规模居首，该行业今日上涨1.67%，全天净流入资金72.11亿元，其次是国防军工行业，日涨 幅为1.59%，净流入资金为28.92亿元。 主力资金净流出的行业有25个，医药生物行业主力资金净流出规模居首，全天净流出资金87.89亿元， 其次是电力设备行业，净流出资金为76.44亿元，净流出资金较多的还有电子、非银金融、汽车等行 业。 基础化工行业今日上涨0.74%，全天主力资金净流入7.18亿元，该行业所属的个股共404只，今日上涨的 有205只，涨停的有5只；下跌的有191只，跌停的有2只。以资金流向数据进行统计，该行业资金净流入 的个股有139只，其中，净流入资金超亿元的有10只，净流入资金居首的是雅化集团，今日净流入资金 3.51亿元，紧随其后的是永太科技、国泰 ...

Group 1 - The chemical sector continues to rise, with the chemical ETF (516020) showing a maximum intraday increase of 1.81% and currently up by 0.96% [1][2] - Key stocks in the sector include potassium fertilizers, petrochemicals, and lithium batteries, with Salt Lake Co. and Hengyi Petrochemical both rising over 6% [1][3] - The lithium battery supply chain has seen significant growth, with strong demand and tight supply leading to price increases in lithium carbonate and lithium hexafluorophosphate [1][3] Group 2 - The basic chemical sector has attracted significant capital, with a net inflow of over 3.2 billion yuan in a single day, ranking fifth among 30 sectors [3][4] - Over the past five days, the basic chemical sector has accumulated a total net inflow of 31.3 billion yuan, the highest among all sectors [3][4] - The chemical ETF (516020) has also seen substantial net subscriptions, exceeding 470 million yuan over the last five trading days [4][5] Group 3 - Valuation metrics indicate that the chemical sector may present a favorable investment opportunity, with the chemical ETF's underlying index trading at a price-to-book ratio of 2.43, which is relatively low compared to the past decade [4][5] - Analysts predict that the basic chemical sector may experience an upward trend starting in 2026, driven by improved domestic demand and supply-side adjustments [5][6] - Key investment opportunities in the sector include low-cost expansion, improving market conditions, new materials, and high dividend yields [5][6]