Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - PTA supply is shrinking, with Ningbo Yisheng Petrochemical Phase 4 reducing its load by 50% until the end of the month. However, its processing fee remains low due to over - capacity from new device production. The polyester downstream load is high, but there are concerns about textile and clothing demand after the "Golden September and Silver October" period due to trade wars. PTA's upward movement is restricted by falling crude oil prices [2]. - For ethylene glycol, the inventory at East China ports is low, and the expected import volume from overseas markets is decreasing. However, domestic device production is putting pressure on prices. With the end of the polyester peak season and the downward movement of the crude oil fundamentals, polyester is expected to operate weakly [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - **PTA**: The price of INE crude oil rose from 432.6 yuan/barrel to 435.8 yuan/barrel, PTA - SC decreased from 1258.3 yuan/ton to 1217.0 yuan/ton, and the PTA/SC ratio dropped from 1.4002 to 1.3843. The PTA spot price fell from 4340 yuan/ton to 4315 yuan/ton, and the main - contract futures price decreased from 4402 yuan/ton to 4384 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee dropped from 136.0 yuan/ton to 119.6 yuan/ton, and the on - screen processing fee decreased from 208.0 yuan/ton to 188.6 yuan/ton [2]. - **MEG**: The main - contract futures price remained at 4003 yuan/ton. The MEG - naphtha spread changed from - 102.97 yuan/ton to - 102.16 yuan/ton. The MEG domestic price dropped from 4115 yuan/ton to 4100 yuan/ton, and the main - contract basis decreased from 74 to 70 [2]. Industrial Chain Start - up Situation - The PX start - up rate remained at 84.62%, the PTA start - up rate remained at 76.95%, the MEG start - up rate decreased from 66.50% to 65.39%, and the polyester load remained at 89.38% [2]. Product Price and Cash Flow - **Polyester Filament**: The prices of POY150D/48F, FDY150D/96F, DTY150D/48F decreased by 75 yuan/ton, 5 yuan/ton, and 25 yuan/ton respectively. The POY cash flow decreased from 126 to 77, the FDY cash flow increased from - 229 to - 208, and the DTY cash flow increased from 226 to 227. The filament sales rate decreased from 55% to 42% [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: The price of 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber decreased from 6370 yuan/ton to 6355 yuan/ton. The staple - fiber cash flow increased from 381 to 392, and the staple - fiber sales rate decreased from 81% to 68% [2]. - **Polyester Chip**: The price of semi - bright chips decreased from 5485 yuan/ton to 5475 yuan/ton. The chip cash flow increased from 46 to 62, and the chip sales rate decreased from 67% to 51% [2]. Device Maintenance An East China 2.2 - million - ton PTA device slightly reduced its load, and the recovery time is to be tracked [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports - **Polyester Industry**: In the short term, PX, PTA, and other products are mainly in a weak shock state. The supply of PX is expected to shrink, but the overall supply - demand is still weak. PTA's basis has weakened, and the supply of ethylene glycol is abundant with a high probability of inventory accumulation. Short - fiber prices are supported by low inventory, and bottle - chips may enter a seasonal inventory accumulation channel [1]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry**: The supply - demand of pure benzene in October is expected to be loose, and the price drive is weak. The supply - demand of styrene is also expected to be loose, and the price is under pressure in the short term [2]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda Industry**: The demand for caustic soda is weakly supported in the short term but may have support in the medium - long term. The supply - demand pressure of PVC is large, and the price is weak, but the cost end provides bottom support [3]. - **Methanol Industry**: The price of methanol may continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the stability of overseas device operation, the clearance efficiency of sanctioned vessels, and the actual arrival performance [4]. - **Polyolefin Industry**: The supply - demand structure of polyolefins is loose, and the upside space of the 01 contract is limited. The prices of PP and PE are under pressure [6]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Polyester Industry - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude oil (December) decreased by 0.5%, WTI crude oil (December) remained unchanged, CFR Japan naphtha remained unchanged, etc [1]. - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: POY150/48 price decreased by 1.2%, FDY150/96 price decreased by 0.1%, etc [1]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: CFR China PX remained unchanged, PX spot price (RMB) decreased by 1.2%, etc [1]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: PTA East China spot price decreased by 0.6%, TA futures 2601 decreased by 0.4%, etc [1]. - **MEG - Related Prices and Spreads**: MEG East China spot price decreased by 0.4%, EG futures 2601 remained unchanged, etc [1]. - **Polyester Industry Chain Operating Rates**: Asian PX operating rate decreased by 2.4%, China PX operating rate decreased by 2.5%, etc [1]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: Brent crude oil (December) decreased by 0.5%, WTI crude oil (November) remained unchanged, CFR Japan naphtha remained unchanged, etc [2]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: Styrene East China spot decreased by 1.7%, EB futures 2511 decreased by 1.8%, etc [2]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Downstream Cash Flows**: The cash flow of phenol increased by 20.8%, the cash flow of caprolactam (single product) increased by 4.1%, etc [2]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventories**: Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory increased by 10.0%, styrene Jiangsu port inventory increased by 3.1% [2]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry Chain Operating Rates**: Asian pure benzene operating rate decreased by 1.1%, domestic pure benzene operating rate decreased by 4.8%, etc [2]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **PVC, Caustic Soda Spot & Futures**: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda converted to 100% price decreased by 1.2%, Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda converted to 100% price decreased by 0.8%, etc [3]. - **Caustic Soda Overseas Quotes & Export Profits**: FOB East China port decreased by 5.0%, export profit decreased by 77.6% [3]. - **PVC Overseas Quotes & Export Profits**: CFR Southeast Asia remained unchanged, CEREDIa decreased by 1.4%, etc [3]. - **Supply: Chlor - Alkali Operating Rates & Industry Profits**: Caustic soda industry operating rate decreased by 3.9%, PVC total operating rate decreased by 7.0%, etc [3]. - **Demand: Caustic Soda Downstream Operating Rates**: Viscose staple fiber industry operating rate decreased by 1.1%, printing and dyeing industry operating rate increased by 0.2% [3]. - **Demand: PVC Downstream Products Operating Rates**: Longzhong sample building materials operating rate increased by 21.8%, Longzhong sample profile operating rate increased by 109.6% [3]. - **Chlor - Alkali Inventories: Social and Factory Inventories**: Liquid caustic soda East China factory inventory decreased by 1.1%, PVC upstream factory inventory decreased by 6.1% [3]. Methanol Industry - **Methanol Prices and Spreads**: MA2601 closing price decreased by 0.26%, MA2605 closing price increased by 0.09%, etc [4]. - **Methanol Inventories**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 6.33%, methanol port inventory decreased by 3.36%, etc [4]. - **Methanol Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: Upstream - domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 1.86%, upstream - overseas enterprise operating rate increased by 2.28%, etc [4]. Polyolefin Industry - **Polyolefin Prices and Spreads**: L2601 closing price increased by 0.07%, L2509 closing price increased by 0.30%, etc [6]. - **PE and PP Non - Standard Prices**: East China LDPE price decreased by 0.54%, East China HD film price remained unchanged, etc [6]. - **PE and PP Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: PE device operating rate decreased by 2.61%, PE downstream weighted operating rate increased by 1.26%, etc [6]. - **PE and PP Inventories**: PE enterprise inventory increased by 27.67%, PE social inventory increased by 4.02%, etc [6].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propene, plastic: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with limited operability on the market [1] - Pure benzene, styrene: ★★★, suggesting a clearer bullish/bearish trend with appropriate investment opportunities [1] - PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, bottle chips, methanol, soda ash: ☆☆☆, meaning a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor operability, advising to wait and see [1] - Urea, PVC, glass: ★★★, representing a clearer bullish/bearish trend and current investment opportunities [1] - Caustic soda: ★★★★, not clearly defined in the star - rating description but presented in the table [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall chemical market shows mixed trends, with different products facing various supply - demand situations and price movements. Some products are in a weak position due to factors like increased supply and weak demand, while others have signs of improvement in trading volume or short - term support [2][3][5] Section Summaries Olefins - Polyolefins - Propene futures dropped to a new low for the year. Producers want to stabilize the market, and downstream purchases increased with better trading volume [2] - Polyethylene and polypropylene futures were weak. Polyethylene faced post - holiday inventory build - up, and price cuts couldn't boost sales significantly. Polypropylene will have more supply due to new capacity and less maintenance, with poor downstream orders and high inventory [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The pure benzene market declined, with larger drops in the unified benzene disk and spot prices. High imports are a major pressure. The benzene - styrene futures fell, with cost support weakening, but short - term supply - demand improved slightly [3] Polyester - PX supply decreased due to maintenance, while PTA supply is expected to increase. The polyester industry has a weak outlook with potential inventory build - up for PTA. Ethylene glycol inventory continued to rise, and its price depends on raw materials. Short - fiber had good inventory reduction and was bullish in the short - term. Bottle chips' demand will weaken with the cooling weather and face long - term over - capacity [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol imports at coastal areas may slow down, but port inventory is still affected by high planned arrivals. Domestic production is high, and demand is weak, with short - term policy - driven market fluctuations and long - term price increase expectations [6] - Urea futures are in a narrow range. Supply is abundant due to weather - affected demand, but exports may support prices, and the market will continue to oscillate at a low level [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC supply decreased slightly but remained high. Domestic demand was stable, and exports were good in September but may face policy pressure. It may trend weakly [7] - Caustic soda production decreased due to maintenance, and inventory dropped. Downstream demand is uncertain, and short - selling should be cautious due to high basis [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash supply was high despite a small production decline. Downstream demand growth was limited, and it's advisable to short at high prices after a rebound [8] - Glass prices continued to fall with inventory build - up. Supply was high, and demand was weak. The decline may be limited at low valuations, and selling out - of - the - money put options can be considered [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PTA is expected to experience weak oscillations in the short - term due to macro - level disturbances, a slight increase in supply, mediocre demand during the traditional peak season, and a pessimistic long - term supply - demand outlook. The industry should continue the strategy of hedging at high prices and pay attention to unplanned production cuts or halts [6]. - Ethylene glycol (MEG) is likely to maintain a weak pattern in the short - term as there is a strong expectation of a weakening in supply - demand balance and inventory is accumulating at the main ports [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Upstream Analysis of the Industrial Chain - **Market Review**: International oil prices declined due to the International Energy Agency's warning of long - term supply surplus and trade disputes initiated by the US. PX prices dropped, but the decline was less than that of crude oil because of weak cost support and a low PX - naphtha spread. As of October 17, the Asian PX closing price was $783.17/ton CFR China, down $15/ton or 1.88% from October 10 [15]. - **PX Capacity Utilization**: The average weekly PX capacity utilization rate was 87.42%, a 0.81% decrease from the previous week. Urumqi Petrochemical's 1 million - ton device was under maintenance from October 14 for half a month, and Fujia Dahua's two 1.4 - million - ton devices continued to be under maintenance, with a planned restart in early November [20]. - **PX - Naphtha Spread**: As of October 17, the PX - naphtha spread reached $246.2/ton, up $24.75/ton from October 10. The spread continued to recover due to low processing fees, low production willingness of enterprises, and a short - term shortage of spot in November [23]. 2. PTA Fundamental Analysis - **Market Review**: PTA prices oscillated weakly. Although the supply was tightened by a planned production cut of a major producer in the Northeast, the price was dragged down by lower international oil prices due to tariff disputes and weak long - term industry expectations. As of October 17, the PTA spot price was 4340 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was 2601 - 83 [26]. - **PTA Capacity Utilization**: The average weekly PTA capacity utilization rate dropped to 75.56%, a 2.28% decrease from the previous week. Hengli Petrochemical carried out a planned production cut, while Yisheng New Materials increased its load during the week. In October, there are maintenance plans for Ineos and Hengli, and the restart time of Yisheng Dahua and Hainan is uncertain, so the monthly PTA output may increase significantly [29]. - **PTA Processing Fees**: PTA processing fees were under pressure as the international oil prices continued to decline due to the ongoing tariff disputes, and there was a lack of positive support in the industrial chain. Next week, with the planned restart of maintenance devices and little change in the polyester sector, the destocking rate in the balance sheet will narrow, and PTA processing fees may continue to be under pressure [31]. - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance**: In October, with insufficient PTA device maintenance and the restart of maintenance devices, and little change in demand, the PTA supply - demand is expected to be in a loose balance [34]. 3. MEG Fundamental Analysis - **Market Trend**: Ethylene glycol prices declined weakly under the double pressure of cost and supply - demand. Affected by the expectation of increased supply and the decline of international oil prices, upstream raw materials were in a downward trend. Although there was a rebound on Thursday due to the general rise of commodities, it continued to be weak on Friday due to the drag of crude oil. As of October 17, the closing price of ethylene glycol in Zhangjiagang was 4096 yuan/ton, and the delivered price in the South China market was 4230 yuan/ton [40]. - **MEG Capacity Utilization**: The total ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate was 69.05%, a 0.37% decrease from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate of integrated devices was 68.93%, a 1.07% decrease, while the coal - based ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate was 69.24%, a 0.75% increase. In October, the inventory accumulation at ports is limited due to cautious import expectations, but there is an obvious expectation of increased domestic production [44]. - **MEG Port Inventory**: As of October 22, 2025, the total expected arrival volume of ethylene glycol in East China was 893,000 tons. As of October 16, the total inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 493,000 tons, an increase of 14,200 tons from October 13 [46]. - **MEG Processing Profits**: The prices of ethylene glycol were weak, and the processing profits of various processes showed both increases and decreases. As of October 17, the profit of naphtha - based ethylene glycol production was - $108.89/ton, an increase of $17.29/ton from the previous week, while the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol production was - 470.2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 181.7 yuan/ton from the previous week [51]. 4. Downstream Demand Analysis of the Industrial Chain - **Polyester Device Load**: The polyester devices had no clear changes. The average weekly polyester capacity utilization rate was 87.78%, a 0.02% decrease from the previous week. Next week, the polyester load is expected to gradually increase as previously commissioned devices and long - shut - down devices restart, and new devices are planned to be commissioned [54]. - **Polyester Capacity Utilization Outlook**: In September, the average monthly polyester capacity utilization rate was 87.59%, a 1.12% increase from the previous month. After successful destocking before the festival, the polyester inventory in October is under little pressure, and the monthly polyester load is expected to remain stable [55]. - **Capacity Utilization of Polyester Products**: The average weekly capacity utilization rate of polyester filament was 91.06%, a 0.03% decrease from the previous period. The average capacity utilization rate of polyester staple fiber was 87.16%, unchanged from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate of fiber - grade polyester chips was 85.12%, a 0.39% decrease from the previous week [60]. - **Polyester Product Inventory**: Due to weak downstream purchasing enthusiasm, the finished - product inventory of polyester factories accumulated slightly during the week [63]. - **Polyester Product Cash Flow**: The polymerization cost decreased, and the price decline of polyester products was less than that of raw materials, so the cash flow of most models was restored [64]. - **Weaving Load**: As of October 16, the comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 64.06%, unchanged from the previous data. The average terminal weaving order days were 14.79 days, an increase of 0.50 days from the previous week. In mid - October, the weaving market orders were differentiated, and the order volume increased slightly compared with September, but the overall increase was not significant due to the temperature difference between the north and the south [69]. 5. Summary of the Polyester Industrial Chain Fundamentals - **Cost**: International oil prices declined. PX prices also dropped, but the decline was less than that of crude oil due to a low PX - naphtha spread [71]. - **Supply**: The average weekly PTA capacity utilization rate decreased, and the total ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate also declined slightly, with different trends in integrated and coal - based devices [71]. - **Demand**: The average weekly polyester capacity utilization rate decreased slightly, and the weaving operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions remained stable. The weaving orders increased slightly but were still affected by temperature differences [71]. - **Inventory**: PTA is expected to be tight in the near - term but face inventory accumulation in the long - term. The MEG inventory in the main ports of East China increased [71].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillating", with no obvious driving force, and it is expected to mainly oscillate [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the polyester industry from multiple aspects including supply, demand, inventory, etc. It points out that the supply side of polyester has shrunk, the downstream load of polyester remains at about 90%, and the PTA port inventory has slightly increased. The PTA basis has stabilized, but the profit has continued to shrink. The PX - naphtha spread is at $250, and the PTA processing fee remains at around 200 yuan. The PTA price is at a neutral - low level, and the absolute price has further declined due to the fall in crude oil prices. The overall market is expected to oscillate mainly due to the lack of obvious driving factors [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is bearish. The trade war may escalate, slightly affecting China's crude oil imports. The supply of domestic PTA devices has slightly shrunk, the PTA basis has stabilized, the PX device operating rate is stable, the cost has weakened, and although the PXN has expanded, polyester has followed the decline in crude oil [4] - **Demand**: It is bearish. The downstream load of polyester remains at about 90%, the inventory of polyester factories is optimistic, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether the weaving can maintain the load after the "Golden September and Silver October" [4] - **Inventory**: It is neutral. The port inventory of PTA has slightly increased, and the physical goods in the Ningbo direction are slightly in short supply [4] - **Basis**: It is bearish. The PTA basis has quickly stabilized, the PTA profit has continued to shrink, and the liquidity in the PTA market is still very loose [4] - **Profit**: It is bearish. The spread between PX and naphtha is $250, the PTA processing fee remains at around 200 yuan, and the PTA processing fee has expanded [4] - **Valuation**: It is neutral. The PTA price is at a neutral - low level. After the end of the domestic maintenance season, the reforming devices are gradually recovering, and the absolute price of PTA has further declined due to the fall in crude oil prices [4] - **Macro Policy**: It is neutral. On October 15, Fed Chairman Powell hinted that the Fed is planning to cut interest rates by 25 basis points later this month [4] - **Investment View**: It is oscillating. There is no obvious driving force, and it is expected to mainly oscillate [4] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to geopolitical risks [4] 3.2 Oil Product Fundamentals Overview - **Macro Situation**: On October 15, Fed Chairman Powell said that the US economy seems to be in a stable state, but the government shutdown may affect data collection. On October 17, major European stock indexes fell in early trading, with concerns about the banking industry spreading, and the European defense stocks also attracted attention [8] - **Gasoline**: The shutdown of the US government may affect demand in the off - season. The North American refinery load has declined, the total gasoline inventory has decreased by 1.6 million barrels, indicating strong terminal demand. The price of high - octane aromatics has remained relatively stable, and its spread with RBOB gasoline has remained stable at 68 cents [22] 3.3 Aromatic Hydrocarbon Fundamentals Overview - **Supply Increase**: With the commissioning of Yulong Petrochemical, the supply of MX is expected to increase in October. The future domestic xylene capacity will continue to be put into production at a high speed, with 1.7 million tons of xylene devices in Jiujiang Petrochemical, Huajin Aramco, and Zhongsha Gulei waiting to be put into production in 2026 [62] - **Market Situation**: The cross - regional arbitrage space for aromatics has opened, but physical trade has not occurred. The profit of selective disproportionation has declined, and the pure benzene price has suppressed the disproportionation profit. After the end of the maintenance season, the floating spread of PX has continued to weaken, the operating rate has significantly recovered, and the load has reached a very high level [40][54][62] - **Outlook**: Mixed xylene is facing continuous downward pressure. The profit of both gasoline reforming and aromatic hydrocarbon reforming has recovered, but the PTA supply side has shrunk, the processing fee has remained low, and the industry profit is still restricted by over - capacity [52][66] 3.4 Polyester Fundamentals Overview - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply of ethylene glycol has increased, and the price is running weakly. The inventory in East China ethylene glycol ports is still at a low level, the arrival volume at ports is limited, the import volume in the overseas market is expected to decline, and the new domestic devices have put pressure on the price. The coal - to - ethylene glycol operating rate has continued to recover, and the profit has been repaired [80] - **Gasoline**: The load of major refineries may decline due to port transportation [81] - **Polyester**: Polyester continues to maintain a high load, but the weaving load may decline. The polyester production has increased, and the downstream has entered the off - season [88][90]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The PTA market is affected by the weak and volatile crude oil market, and its price has declined. The supply side of PTA has shrunk, and its processing fee has continued to be low. The industry profit is still restricted by over - capacity due to new device commissioning. With the end of the peak season, the market is worried about the impact of the trade war on textile and clothing demand, and the PTA operating rate may further decline. It is difficult for PTA to have an independent market due to the decline in crude oil prices [2]. - The inventory of ethylene glycol in East China ports remains low, and the arrival volume at ports within the week is still limited. Overseas imports of ethylene glycol are expected to decline, while domestic device commissioning has put continuous pressure on the price of ethylene glycol. As the polyester peak season is coming to an end and the crude oil fundamentals are weak, polyester is expected to operate weakly [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - INE crude oil price dropped from 443.8 yuan/barrel on October 16, 2025, to 432.6 yuan/barrel on October 17, 2025, a decrease of 11.20 yuan/barrel. PTA - SC increased by 27.39 yuan/ton, and the PTA/SC ratio increased by 0.0186. CFR China PX decreased by 3, and the PX - naphtha spread decreased by 9. The PTA main futures price dropped by 54.0 yuan/ton, and the PTA spot price dropped by 15.0 yuan/ton. The PTA spot processing fee decreased by 7.8 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee decreased by 36.8 yuan/ton. The MEG main futures price dropped by 86.0 yuan/ton, and the MEG - naphtha decreased by 8.2 yuan/ton. The MEG domestic price decreased by 5.0 yuan/ton [2]. Industry Chain and Operating Conditions - The PX operating rate remained unchanged at 84.62%. The PTA operating rate decreased by 0.63% to 77.58%, the MEG operating rate decreased by 0.66% to 65.84%, and the polyester load remained unchanged at 89.38% [2]. Polyester Filament - The prices of POY150D/48F and FDY150D/96F decreased by 15.0 yuan/ton and 45.0 yuan/ton respectively, while the price of DTY150D/48F increased by 20.0 yuan/ton. The POY cash flow remained unchanged at 126, the FDY cash flow increased by 30.0 to (199), and the DTY cash flow decreased by 35.0 to 191. The long - filament sales rate decreased by 25% to 67% [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - The price of 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber decreased by 15 yuan/ton, the cash flow remained unchanged at 381, and the short - fiber sales rate decreased by 3% to 84% [2]. Polyester Chip - The price of semi - bright chips decreased by 15.0 yuan/ton, the chip cash flow remained unchanged at 46, and the chip sales rate decreased by 137% to 188% [2] Device Maintenance - A 2.2 - million - ton PTA device in East China has reduced its load, and the recovery time is to be tracked [3]

Report 1: Polyolefin Industry Spot and Futures Daily Report Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand structure of polyolefins is loose, and the upside space of the 01 contract is limited. The prices of PP and PE are under pressure due to the weak macro - atmosphere, cost, and supply - demand performance [2]. Summary by Catalog - **Prices and Price Differences** - On October 17, the closing prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 decreased compared to the previous day, with declines ranging from - 0.79% to - 1.04%. The differences between L2509 - 2601 and PP2509 - 2601 also changed, with L2509 - 2601 down 24.00% and PP2509 - 2601 up 12.33% [2]. - Spot prices of East China PP fiber and North China LDPE film decreased, with declines of - 0.62% and - 0.73% respectively. The basis of North China LL and East China PP also changed [2]. - Non - standard prices of PE and PP mostly decreased, such as the East China LDPE price down - 0.54% [2]. - **Inventory and Production** - PE enterprise inventory and social inventory increased by 27.67% and 4.02% respectively. PP enterprise inventory and trader inventory increased by 30.96% and 39.48% respectively [2]. - PE device operating rate decreased by 2.61%, while the downstream weighted operating rate increased by 1.26%. PP device operating rate increased by 0.6%, and the powder operating rate increased by 5.4% [2]. Report 2: Methanol Industry Spot and Futures Daily Report Core Viewpoints - In the methanol market, under the game of supply and demand, prices may continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the stability of overseas device operation, the customs clearance efficiency of sanctioned vessels, and the actual arrival performance, as well as the port destocking rhythm and the implementation effect of overseas gas restriction expectations [4]. Summary by Catalog - **Prices and Price Differences** - On October 17, the closing prices of MA2601 and MA2605 decreased, with declines of - 2.03% and - 1.51% respectively. The MA15 spread increased by 200.00%, and the Taicang basis decreased by - 18.18% [4]. - Spot prices in Inner Mongolia's northern line, Henan Luoyang, and Taicang Port decreased, with declines ranging from - 0.35% to - 1.31% [4]. - **Inventory and Production** - Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 6.33%, while port inventory decreased by - 3.36%, and social inventory decreased by - 1.61% [4]. - The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by - 1.86%, and the overseas exchange and northwest enterprise sales - to - production ratio changed. Downstream, the operating rates of some devices such as acetic acid and MTBE decreased [4]. Report 3: Pure Benzene - Styrene Daily Report Core Viewpoints - The weekly supply - demand of pure benzene is weak, and the price drive is weak in October. The price of styrene is also under pressure in the short term due to the weak supply - demand and oil price expectations [6]. Summary by Catalog - **Upstream Prices and Price Differences** - On October 17, the prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, etc. changed. The price differences between pure benzene - naphtha and ethylene - naphtha also changed [6]. - The spot price of pure benzene in East China decreased by - 0.7%, and the BZ futures 2603 decreased by - 1.4% [6]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Price Differences** - The spot price of styrene in East China decreased by - 1.8%, and EB futures 2511 and 2512 also decreased [6]. - The EB basis (03) increased by 950.0%, and the styrene import profit increased by 114.6% [6]. - **Inventory and Production** - The port inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu decreased by - 1.1% and - 2.7% respectively. The operating rates of some devices in the pure benzene and styrene industry chains changed [6]. Report 4: Polyester Industry Chain Daily Report Core Viewpoints - For PX, the supply - demand is repaired to some extent in the fourth quarter but remains weak overall, with limited short - term drive and mainly low - level fluctuations. PTA also has limited short - term drive and low - level fluctuations. Ethylene glycol is expected to accumulate inventory, and its price is under pressure. Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices also face different supply - demand situations [7]. Summary by Catalog - **Upstream Prices** - On October 17, the prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, etc. changed. The exchange rate remained basically unchanged [7]. - **PX - Related Prices and Price Differences** - CFR China PX price decreased by - 0.4%. PX spot price in RMB decreased by - 1.6%, and PX futures 2511 and 2601 also decreased [7]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Price Differences** - PTA East China spot price decreased by - 0.3%, and TA futures 2601 and 2605 decreased [7]. - PTA basis (01) and TA01 - TA05 spread changed [7]. - **MEG - Related Prices and Price Differences** - MEG East China spot price decreased by - 0.1%, and EG futures 2601 and 2605 decreased [7]. - MEG basis (01) increased by 261.3%, and MEG import profit increased by - 48.5% [7]. - **Inventory and Production** - MEG port inventory increased by 6.7%, and the arrival expectation increased by 27.5%. The operating rates of various devices in the polyester industry chain changed, such as the PTA operating rate increasing by 2.3% [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices are not advisable to be overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's recommended to wait and see for now to test OPEC's export price - support willingness [3]. - For methanol, the peak - season demand has disappointed, and the pattern of high domestic inventory and weak reality remains. However, the port pressure has eased due to the delay in unloading imported goods. Future upward price drivers may come from the expected improvement brought by winter gas restrictions. It's advisable to focus on supply - side disturbances and look for long 1 - short 5 spread opportunities at low prices [6]. - For urea, there is still a lack of effective positive factors in the domestic market, but the price is at a low level with low valuation. It's recommended to wait and see or look for long - position opportunities at low prices [9][11]. - For rubber, the rubber price has stabilized in the short term. It's recommended to set a stop - loss for short - term long positions and enter and exit quickly. Partial positions can be established for the strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [14]. - For PVC, the domestic supply is strong while demand is weak, and the export expectation is weakening. It's recommended to look for short - position opportunities in the medium term [18]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the port inventory of styrene is decreasing significantly, and the price may stop falling temporarily [21]. - For polyethylene, the price may maintain a low - level oscillation in the long term [24]. - For polypropylene, under the background of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high, and the cost - side supply surplus pattern suppresses the market [27]. - For PX, currently, there is a lack of driving factors, and it's recommended to wait and see [28]. - For PTA, the supply is increasing slightly, and the demand shows signs of weakness. It's recommended to wait and see [29]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply is high, and the port is starting to accumulate inventory. It's recommended to look for short - position opportunities [31]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed down 10.60 yuan/barrel, a 2.39% decline, at 432.60 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil futures also declined. The U.S. EIA weekly data showed changes in various oil inventories, such as a 3.52 - million - barrel increase in commercial crude oil inventory [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Despite the disappearance of geopolitical premiums and minimal OPEC production increase, short - term oil prices are not advisable to be overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang decreased by 25 yuan, in Inner Mongolia by 12.5 yuan, and in southern Shandong by 2.5 yuan. The 01 - contract on the futures market decreased by 47 yuan to 2272 yuan/ton, with the basis at par [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Import unloading is delayed, leading to a short - term decline in arrivals and a reduction in port inventory. Domestic supply has slightly decreased, and coal prices are rising, reducing coal - to - methanol profits. Demand remains weak. The peak - season demand has disappointed, but the port pressure has eased. Future upward drivers may come from winter gas restrictions. Focus on supply - side disturbances and long 1 - short 5 spread opportunities at low prices [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: Spot prices in Shandong and Henan remained stable. The 01 - contract on the futures market decreased by 2 yuan to 1602 yuan, with a basis of - 72 [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - term malfunctioning devices have increased, and the operating rate has significantly declined. The demand is weak, but the price is at a low level. It's recommended to wait and see or look for long - position opportunities at low prices [9]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price is oscillating and recovering, with RU stabilizing and NR being relatively strong. Typhoon Fengshen may affect rubber - producing areas. There are different views among bulls and bears. As of October 16, 2025, the operating rates of all - steel and semi - steel tires in domestic enterprises have changed, and some all - steel tire enterprises have issued price - increase notices [10][11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The rubber price has stabilized in the short term. It's recommended to set a stop - loss for short - term long positions and enter and exit quickly. Partial positions can be established for the strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [14]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract decreased by 6 yuan to 4688 yuan. The spot price in Changzhou increased by 20 yuan/ton. The overall operating rate decreased, and both factory and social inventories decreased [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The comprehensive profit of enterprises has continued to decline, and the supply is strong while demand is weak. The export expectation is weakening. It's recommended to look for short - position opportunities in the medium term [18]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of pure benzene in East China remained unchanged, while the styrene spot price increased and the futures price decreased. The basis strengthened. Supply - side operating rates decreased, and port inventory decreased. Demand - side operating rates increased [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The port inventory of styrene is decreasing significantly, and the price may stop falling temporarily [21]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The futures price decreased, and the spot price also decreased. The upstream operating rate decreased slightly, and production enterprise inventory increased while trader inventory decreased. The downstream operating rate increased slightly [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost - side support for crude oil has weakened. The PE valuation has limited downward space, but the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market. The overall inventory is decreasing from a high level, and demand is gradually picking up. The price may maintain a low - level oscillation in the long term [24]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The futures price decreased, and the spot price also decreased. The upstream operating rate decreased, and inventories at production enterprises, traders, and ports all decreased. The downstream operating rate increased slightly [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost - side supply surplus is expected to expand. The supply pressure is high, and demand is weak. The overall inventory pressure is high, and the cost - side situation suppresses the market [27]. PX, PTA, and Ethylene Glycol PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract decreased by 84 yuan. The load of PX decreased, and multiple devices were under maintenance. The load of PTA increased, and imports from South Korea to China increased in early October. Inventory increased in August [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Currently, the PX load remains high, and the downstream PTA has many short - term maintenance operations. There is a lack of driving factors, and it's recommended to wait and see [28]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract decreased by 54 yuan. The load of PTA increased, and some devices adjusted their loads. The downstream load decreased slightly, and inventory increased [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is increasing slightly, and the demand shows signs of weakness. It's recommended to wait and see [29]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract decreased by 86 yuan. The supply - side load increased, and multiple devices had changes in operation. The downstream load decreased slightly, and port inventory increased [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is high, and the port is starting to accumulate inventory. It's recommended to look for short - position opportunities [31].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - PX is expected to enter a short - term volatile market with expanding profits, and it is recommended to hold long PXN positions [3]. - PTA shows a weak trend, and it is advisable to hold long PTA and short PX positions and 1 - 5 backwardation [4]. - MEG has a weak trend due to cost collapse, and it is recommended to reduce short positions below 4000 yuan/ton and maintain 1 - 5 backwardation [5]. - The polyester industry's consumption is expected to improve as the weather turns cold and with the marginal increase in Double Eleven orders, but the long - filament segment still faces pressure [3][4][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PX Valuation and Profit - PXN is at 246 dollars/ton (+16), and the PX - MX Korea FOB spread is 102 dollars (+3). The decline in crude oil prices has led to the expansion of PX profits again [3]. - The unilateral PX price has been continuously decreasing due to negative demand feedback and weak cost support. The PX outer - market monthly spread is generally stable, while PXN has weakened significantly [19][25]. - Overseas oil product cracking spreads are strong, supporting overseas aromatic hydrocarbon valuations. The PX - MX spread has weakened significantly, and the Asian MX blending oil market has recovered [29][42]. Supply and Demand, Inventory - This week, the domestic PX plant operating rate is 84.9% (-3.5%), and the Asian overall load operating rate is 78% (-1.9%). Multiple overseas plants are scheduled for maintenance, and the supply - demand situation is slightly tight [3][55]. - In August, the PX import volume was 880,000 tons, and the import volume from South Korea increased significantly. The estimated import volume in September is 850,000 tons [56]. - In September, the PX monthly inventory in Longzhong dropped to 3.92 million tons (+30,000 tons) [70]. PTA Valuation and Profit - The 1 - 5 monthly spread of PTA is in backwardation. The processing fee is at a low level, weakening the plant's willingness to start operations [76][82]. - The PTA basis has declined due to negative demand feedback, sufficient supply in East China, and the planned commissioning of new plants [77]. Supply and Demand, Inventory - The PTA operating rate is maintained at around 76.7% (+2.3%). The new Fengming PTA plant is planned to start operation this week, and the production volume this week is 1.45 million tons. Attention should be paid to the commissioning progress of the new Indian PTA plant GAIL [4][86]. - In August, the PTA export volume was 300,000 tons, and the export profit has decreased [90]. - The PTA inventory is at a low level [103]. MEG Valuation and Profit - The MEG basis is maintained at around 70 yuan/ton. MEG's valuation relative to ethylene oxide, styrene, and plastics has rebounded to the highest level this year [119][124]. - The profit of coal - based MEG plants is 47 yuan/ton (-171), while oil - based plants continue to operate at a loss [127]. Supply and Demand, Inventory - The MEG operating rate has reached a new high this year. This week, the operating rate continued to rise, and some plants will undergo maintenance and shutdown next week, which may cause a slight decline [129][130]. - In August, the MEG import volume was about 590,000 tons, and it is expected to recover in September [131]. - Multiple overseas MEG plants are under maintenance, and the European arbitrage window is gradually closing [138][141]. - The MEG port inventory has increased marginally [146]. Polyester Segment Valuation and Profit No relevant content provided. Supply and Demand, Inventory - The polyester operating rate is 91.4% (-0.1%). The profit of the polyester segment has been repaired, and the bottle - chip segment with successful inventory management is expected to increase its load, but the long - filament segment still faces pressure [150][153]. - The polyester production volume has increased by 8% year - on - year [157].

国泰君安期货·能源化工 短纤、瓶片周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 钱嘉寅（联系人）期货从业资格号：F03124480 日期：2025年10月19日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 瓶片（PR） 短纤：短期震荡市，中期偏弱 估值与利润 基本面运行情况 供需平衡表 03 短纤（PF） 估值与利润 基本面运行情况 CONTENTS 01 观点小结 上游观点汇总 瓶片：震荡偏弱 2 02 观点小结 01 本周短纤观点：偏弱震荡但下方空间不大 | 供应 | 短纤工厂开工维持，平均开工率94.3%，纺纱用直纺涤短开工维持94.5%，短纤后续预计在93%-95%区间震荡，10-11月更多看下游压力，可 能逐渐小幅下行。 | | --- | --- | | 需求 | 现货市场低位补库较多，短纤库存继续下降，1.4D权益库存在5天，实物库存15.8天。价格持续下跌过程 ...