Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a mixed performance with the Hang Seng Index closing down 0.37%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down 0.06%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index up 0.65% after reaching a peak increase of 2.3% during the day [1] Technology Sector - Major technology stocks saw a narrowing of gains in the afternoon, with JD.com rising by 2.65%, Alibaba, Baidu, and Xiaomi each increasing by less than 1%, while Kuaishou fell by 1.47%. Tencent and Meituan also showed negative performance [1] Entertainment Industry - The summer box office continued to perform strongly, driven by positive reviews of major films, which boosted overall viewing demand. Film-related stocks were robust, with Lingmeng Film rising over 21%, Daocaoxiong Entertainment up nearly 15%, and Maoyan Entertainment increasing by nearly 6% [1] Healthcare Sector - Internet healthcare stocks collectively rose, with Ping An Good Doctor and JD Health both increasing by over 8% [1] Other Active Sectors - Rare earth concept stocks, military industry stocks, brain-computer interface concept stocks, automotive stocks, and Apple-related stocks showed active performance [1] Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector continued to weaken in July, with domestic property stocks generally declining [1] Commodities and Other Industries - The U.S. announced an expansion of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports by 50%, leading to declines in steel and copper stocks. Coal, oil, semiconductor, domestic banking, and shipping stocks mostly performed poorly [1]

沪铜早间小幅高开，但日内行情却略有走软，收盘微跌0.01%。最近宏观面指引有限，铜市供需面有支 撑，持续区间震荡，但周初社库增加，一定程度拖累铜价走势。 8月18日国内市场电解铜现货库存14.42万吨，较14日增1.18万吨。国内电解铜库存增加明显，其中各市 场均表现不同程度增幅；其中上海市场近期由于进口铜到货流入较多，且部分仓库出库量相对一般，库 存因此增加明显。 （文华综合） 最近国内铜精矿现货加工费呈现不断回升姿态，需求方认为市场还有抬升空间，但远期四季度的货物还 是维持 -40 左右左右的水平，矿端偏紧状态并未出现实质性的好转。冶炼端方面，后续仍显关注在原料 偏紧状态下冶炼厂开工率变化情况。 光大期货表示，铜价维系区间窄幅波动，一是近期宏观颇为反复，特朗普关税谈判明紧暗松，与各大经 济体的关税协议陆续达成，但与中国的关键谈判协议仍存不确定性；二是基本面方面，美精炼铜不加征 关税下市场对美铜后市看法依然有一定分歧，主要在于美铜超量累库下，可能迫使美铜持续偏弱，从而 导致库存重新外迁风险，进而冲击全球铜价。因此市场也可能先行消化淡季下基本面积累的矛盾 （LME和国内社会库存累库），价格可能维系偏弱走势；不 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.70% to close at 3696.77 points, while the CSI 300 Index rose by 2.37% to 4202.35 points. The SW Nonferrous Metals Industry Index saw a gain of 3.62%, closing at 5905.88 points as of August 15 [2][4]. Sub-industry Performance - Among the five sub-industries in the nonferrous metals sector, the changes compared to the previous week were as follows: Industrial metals +5.31%, Precious metals -3.45%, Minor metals +1.73%, Energy metals +2.79%, and New metal materials +7.67% [2][4]. Key Metal Prices - Key metal prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were as follows: Copper at 79,060 CNY/ton (+0.79%), Aluminum at 20,770 CNY/ton (+0.48%), Zinc at 22,505 CNY/ton (0.00%), Lead at 16,850 CNY/ton (-0.09%), Nickel at 120,600 CNY/ton (-0.46%), and Tin at 266,820 CNY/ton (-0.49%) [3]. - On the London Metal Exchange, prices were: Copper at 9,760 USD/ton (-0.02%), Aluminum at 2,603 USD/ton (-0.23%), Zinc at 2,797 USD/ton (-1.08%), Lead at 1,981 USD/ton (-1.32%), Nickel at 15,195 USD/ton (+0.26%), and Tin at 33,610 USD/ton (-0.04%) [3]. Lithium and Cobalt Prices - Battery-grade lithium carbonate and industrial-grade lithium carbonate prices increased significantly, with battery-grade lithium carbonate at 84,000 CNY/ton (+23.08%) and industrial-grade at 83,000 CNY/ton (+23.42%). Battery-grade lithium hydroxide rose by 14.19% to 77,875 CNY/ton, while Australian lithium concentrate increased by 33.33% to 864 USD/ton [3]. - Domestic cobalt prices showed mixed results, with electrolytic cobalt at 258,500 CNY/ton (-1.71%) and other cobalt products experiencing slight increases [3]. Investment Recommendations - The global copper supply is facing disruptions, particularly from the El Teniente copper mine in Chile, which has led to a downward revision of copper production forecasts for the year to 5.58 million tons, a 1.5% increase year-on-year [4][5]. - Despite being in a seasonal demand lull, strong demand from the power grid and new energy sectors is expected to support copper prices. The current low inventory levels in China are also contributing to a favorable price environment [5]. - Companies to watch include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Western Mining, and Jinchuan Group, as they are well-positioned to benefit from these trends [5]. - The rare earth sector is also expected to see price increases due to stricter export controls and strong domestic demand, with key companies like Northern Rare Earth, Zhuhai Yinlong, and others being highlighted for potential growth [5].

Report Investment Ratings The report does not provide industry investment ratings. Core Views Macro Perspective - In China, economic growth in July showed a marginal slowdown, but a package of economic - stabilizing policies are gradually taking effect. If economic data continues to decline, relevant policies may be further strengthened. Overseas, the possibility of a September interest - rate cut remains uncertain, and attention should be paid to US economic data and Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting [2]. - In the context of weakening consumption momentum and inflation concerns, the risk of a US economic downturn has significantly increased. The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting is an important window to observe policy trends, and Powell's speech may provide key guidance for subsequent monetary policies. In the short - term, the US dollar index may maintain a volatile pattern, and the USD/CNY spot exchange rate is likely to trade in the 7.15 - 7.23 range [4][5]. Equity Market - Last week, the stock index showed a volume - driven upward trend. Although there was no obvious positive fundamental drive, the market sentiment was positive. In the short - term, the A - share market may continue to be in an upward - biased state, but trading should be cautious due to the lack of fundamental support [6]. Commodity Market - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are under pressure due to the US PPI significantly exceeding expectations. In the medium - to - long - term, they may be bullish, but in the short - term, they are bearish. Copper prices are expected to continue to fluctuate, or slightly strengthen. Aluminum prices may experience a short - term correction, while alumina may show a weak - side shock, and cast aluminum alloy may also correct [9][13][14]. - **Base Metals**: Zinc prices are expected to be range - bound. Nickel and stainless steel are expected to fluctuate within the ranges of [11.8 - 12.6] ten - thousand yuan and [1.25 - 1.31] ten - thousand yuan respectively. Tin prices are expected to be mainly in a range - bound state. Industrial silicon is expected to enter a shock - strengthening state, and polysilicon is expected to be in a shock - strengthening state in the medium - to - long - term [18][21][23]. - **Black Metals**: Steel fundamentals are weakening, but there is still cost support. Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate. Coking coal and coke prices may fluctuate widely with market sentiment. Silicon iron and silicon manganese are facing increasing supply pressure [30][31][37]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil prices face a medium - term risk of breaking down due to the lack of positive news from the US - Russia meeting and the weakening of geopolitical support. LPG fundamentals remain loose. PTA - PX suggests buying to expand processing fees at low prices. MEG is recommended to be bought at low prices, and bottle - grade chips' prices mainly follow the cost - end fluctuations [41][44][47]. - **Other Commodities**: PVC remains in a weak state. Pure benzene and styrene show a double - de - stocking trend. Fuel oil is still weak, while low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking spread has strengthened. Asphalt is expected to follow the cost - end in a weak - side shock. Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate within a certain range [58][60][62]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - **Market Information**: China's central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy. China's economic data in July showed a slowdown. The US retail sales in July increased, but consumer confidence unexpectedly declined. The "Trump - Putin meeting" took place, and there are expectations for a US - Russia - Ukraine tri - party meeting. Trump may announce semiconductor tariffs in two weeks [1]. - **Core Logic**: Domestically, economic data in July slowed down, but policies are being implemented. Overseas, the September interest - rate cut is uncertain, and attention should be paid to US economic data and Powell's speech [2]. RMB Exchange Rate - **Market Review**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1823 on the previous trading day, down 93 basis points. The central parity rate was 7.1371, down 34 basis points [3]. - **Core Logic**: The US economic downturn risk is rising. The Jackson Hole meeting is crucial for observing policy trends. In the short - term, the US dollar index may fluctuate, and the USD/CNY exchange rate is likely to trade in the 7.15 - 7.23 range [4][5]. Stock Index - **Market Review**: Last Friday, the stock index rose with reduced volume. The trading volume of the two markets decreased significantly. In the futures market, IF and IH rose with reduced volume, while IC and IM rose with increased volume [6]. - **Core Logic**: The stock index was driven by volume last week. Although there was no fundamental positive drive, market sentiment was positive. In the short - term, the A - share market may continue to rise, but trading should be cautious [6]. Commodities Precious Metals - **Gold & Silver** - **Market Review**: Last week, the precious metals market was under pressure. The increase in US PPI and inflation expectations cooled the interest - rate cut expectations [9]. - **Funds and Inventory**: Long - term fund holdings of gold and silver ETFs increased, while short - term non - commercial net long positions decreased. COMEX and SHFE gold and silver inventories changed to different extents [10]. - **Core Logic**: In the medium - to - long - term, precious metals may be bullish, but in the short - term, they are bearish. Attention should be paid to US economic data and the Jackson Hole meeting [11]. Base Metals - **Copper** - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper futures contract rose slightly during the week and then fell, closing at around 79,000 yuan per ton. Inventories in different markets changed [12]. - **Core Logic**: Copper prices are expected to fluctuate or slightly strengthen. The restart of the Chilean mine has limited impact on prices [13]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain** - **Aluminum**: The US has expanded the scope of tariffs on aluminum imports. Aluminum prices may experience a short - term correction, and attention should be paid to downstream restocking [14]. - **Alumina**: Alumina supply is expected to be in surplus in the second half of the year. The market may shift to cost - based pricing, and it is expected to be in a short - term shock - adjustment state [15]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The price of scrap aluminum supports the price of cast aluminum alloy. The futures price generally follows the Shanghai aluminum price, and arbitrage operations can be considered when the price difference widens [16]. - **Zinc** - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc contract closed at 22,505 yuan per ton, with trading volume and open interest changes [17]. - **Core Logic**: Zinc fundamentals remain unchanged, and prices are expected to be range - bound [18]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel** - **Market Review**: The Shanghai nickel and stainless steel contracts showed a pattern of rising and then falling during the week [19]. - **Core Logic**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel are expected to fluctuate in the [11.8 - 12.6] ten - thousand yuan and [1.25 - 1.31] ten - thousand yuan ranges respectively, with cost support [21]. - **Tin** - **Market Review**: The Shanghai tin futures contract rose and then fell slightly, closing at 266,000 yuan per ton. Inventories were relatively stable [23]. - **Core Logic**: Tin prices are expected to be mainly in a range - bound state, with the delay in the resumption of Myanmar's tin mines providing support [23]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon** - **Market Review**: Industrial silicon futures fluctuated narrowly, and polysilicon futures fluctuated widely [24]. - **Core Logic**: Industrial silicon is expected to enter a shock - strengthening state, and polysilicon is expected to be in a shock - strengthening state in the medium - to - long - term [26]. - **Lead** - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead contract closed at 16,850 yuan per ton, with trading volume and open interest changes [27]. - **Core Logic**: Lead fundamentals are deadlocked, and prices are expected to be range - bound [28]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil** - **Market Review**: The market showed a pattern of consolidation [29]. - **Core Logic**: The fundamentals of steel are weakening, but there is cost support. The rebar 10 - contract is expected to have support around 3100, and hot - rolled coil around 3350 [30]. - **Iron Ore** - **Core Logic**: Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate. The supply is neutral, and the demand from molten iron provides support. The terminal demand has some problems in the rebar segment [31]. - **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Market Review**: Coking coal prices fluctuated, and coke prices rose for the sixth round. The double - coking futures fluctuated widely [33]. - **Core Logic**: The macro - sentiment may fluctuate, and the market should pay attention to the changes in finished - product inventories. The supply of coking coal is in a tight - balance state, and coke supply has disturbing factors [33][34]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese** - **Market Review**: The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese in different regions changed [35][36]. - **Core Logic**: The supply of ferroalloys is increasing, and the demand has certain support but also limitations. The prices mainly follow the cost - end fluctuations [37]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil** - **Market Review**: Crude oil prices showed a stop - falling adjustment after sideways trading, with the US and Brent crude oil futures prices falling [39]. - **Core Logic**: The US - Russia meeting did not bring positive news, and the geopolitical support for crude oil weakened. The medium - term risk of price breakdown is increasing [41]. - **LPG** - **Market Review**: LPG futures prices changed, and the spot prices in different regions also changed [42][43]. - **Core Logic**: LPG fundamentals remain loose, with the supply remaining high and the demand having a slight improvement [44]. - **PTA - PX** - **Market Review**: PX - PTA prices were range - bound, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [45][46]. - **Core Logic**: It is recommended to buy to expand PTA processing fees at low prices, as PTA processing fees are at a historical low [47]. - **MEG - Bottle - Grade Chips** - **Market Review**: MEG prices were range - bound, with changes in inventory and device operations [48]. - **Core Logic**: MEG is recommended to be bought at low prices, and bottle - grade chips' prices mainly follow the cost - end fluctuations [49][50]. - **Methanol** - **Market Review**: Methanol 09 contract prices changed, and the inventory in different ports increased [51]. - **Core Logic**: The 09 contract may gradually return to fundamental pricing. The best buying point for the 01 contract needs to be waited for [52]. - **PP** - **Market Review**: PP futures prices changed, and the spot prices in different regions also changed [53]. - **Core Logic**: PP is expected to be in a shock - pattern, and attention should be paid to the demand - end and cost - end changes [54]. - **PE** - **Market Review**: PE futures prices changed, and the spot prices in different regions also changed [55]. - **Core Logic**: As the peak season approaches, PE demand is slowly recovering. The short - term price is expected to be in a shock - pattern, and the subsequent trend depends on the demand recovery [56]. - **PVC** - **Market Review**: PVC supply, demand, export, inventory, and price data changed [57]. - **Core Logic**: PVC remains in a weak state, with the threat of large - scale delivery in August and weak fundamentals [58]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene** - **Market Review**: Pure benzene and styrene futures prices changed, and the inventory decreased [60][61]. - **Core Logic**: Pure benzene is expected to be range - bound, and styrene's supply surplus has decreased. Short - term unilateral short - selling of styrene should be cautious [60][62]. - **Fuel Oil** - **Market Review**: High - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil prices changed, and the supply, demand, and inventory data also changed [63][65]. - **Core Logic**: High - sulfur fuel oil is still weak, and low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking spread has strengthened [64][65]. - **Asphalt** - **Market Review**: Asphalt futures and spot prices changed, and the supply, demand, and inventory data also changed [66]. - **Core Logic**: Asphalt is expected to follow the cost - end in a weak - side shock. The demand is affected by rainfall and capital shortages [66]. - **Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber** - **Market Review**: Rubber futures prices changed, and the spot prices in different regions also changed [67]. - **Core Logic**: Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of 15700 - 16100, with cost support and inventory pressure [69].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US employment data is weak and the CPI reflects moderate inflation, increasing the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. The domestic central bank's monetary policy aims to keep prices at a reasonable level, with positive macro - impacts both at home and abroad. - Fundamentally, spot inventory remains low, and premiums are firm. There are concerns about supply reduction during the September - October maintenance peak. However, with the repair of overseas premiums, some overseas copper is flowing into China and other Asian markets, and recent imports have increased. - Domestic supply output remains high, and downstream consumption in the off - season shows little improvement, with purchases mainly for just - in - time needs. But consumption has resilience, and the transition from the off - season to the peak season may boost copper prices. - Low inventory supports copper prices at a high level. With favorable domestic policies and the Fed rate - cut expectation, copper prices are expected to continue a volatile and slightly upward trend [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategies - **Supply Side**: The contradiction between mining and smelting persists. As of August 15, the copper concentrate import treatment charge was - 37.67 dollars/ton, up 0.33 dollars/ton week - on - week, still at a low level. The domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 42.2 tons, down 0.7 tons month - on - month, showing a stable low - level trend. In July, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1743 million tons, up 3.47% month - on - month and 14.21% year - on - year, with a stable growth rate [6]. - **Demand Side**: In the off - season, downstream consumption shows little improvement, with purchases mainly for just - in - time needs. As of August 14, the weekly operating rate of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises rose to 70.61%, up 1.75 percentage points week - on - week and down 10.31 percentage points year - on - year. In July, the operating rates of copper foil, copper tube, and copper strip were 77.28%, 68.94%, and 65.63% respectively. The copper foil operating rate increased due to strong demand in the lithium - battery copper foil market, while the copper tube operating rate declined as expected, and the copper strip operating rate continued to fall due to the off - season [6]. - **Inventory**: As of August 15, the SHFE copper inventory was 86,300 tons, up 5.41% week - on - week. As of August 14, the domestic copper social inventory was 125,600 tons, with a weekly increase of 12,700 tons, down 4.85% week - on - week. As of August 15, the LME copper inventory was 155,800 tons, down 0.03% week - on - week. The global visible copper inventory was 601,300 tons, up 0.35% week - on - week [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: With positive macro - impacts, high domestic supply, and the transition from the off - season to the peak season, copper prices are expected to continue a volatile and slightly upward trend [7]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Macro Data**: The China - US Stockholm economic and trade talks jointly announced a 90 - day suspension of the 24% tariff from August 12, 2025, while retaining the remaining 10% tariff. China's new social financing in July was 1.16 trillion yuan, and RMB loans decreased by 50 billion yuan. China's July retail sales growth slowed to 3.7%, and the auto retail sales declined year - on - year. China's real estate development investment from January to July decreased by 12% year - on - year. The US July CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year, lower than expected, while the core CPI reached a new high since February. The US July PPI rose 0.9% month - on - month, a three - year high [15]. - **Industry News**: Chile's July copper exports decreased by 0.4% year - on - year to 3.99 billion dollars. Codelco resumed partial operations at El Teniente copper mine. In June, Codelco's copper production increased year - on - year, while Escondida's production decreased significantly. In July, the proportion of Russian - origin copper in LME warehouses decreased due to the large - scale inflow of Chinese - origin copper. The sudden shutdown of Indonesia's PT Smelting smelter eased the tight copper concentrate supply. Cochilco maintained its copper price forecast at 4.30 dollars/pound for this year and next [16]. 3.3 Futures and Spot Market and Positioning - **Premiums and Discounts**: Last week, due to the change in the monthly spread structure to Contango, most holders were reluctant to sell, and the domestic spot supply was still tight. The spot premium of SHFE copper remained stable, but declined at the end of the week. The LME copper 0 - 3 premium continued to fall, and the New York - London copper spread remained low after a significant decline [25]. - **Long and Short Positions at Home and Abroad**: As of August 15, the SHFE copper futures position was 152,557 lots, down 2.76% week - on - week, and the average daily trading volume was 54,485 lots, up 10.21% week - on - week. As of August 8, the net long position of LME copper investment companies and credit institutions was 21,281.52 lots, down 2.89% week - on - week. As of August 12, the net long position of COMEX copper asset management institutions was 25,168 lots, up 37.91% week - on - week [27]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply Side**: The mining - smelting contradiction persists. As of August 15, the copper concentrate import treatment charge was - 37.67 dollars/ton, up 0.33 dollars/ton week - on - week, and the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 42.2 tons, down 0.7 tons month - on - month. The sudden shutdown of Indonesia's PT Smelting smelter slightly eased the copper concentrate supply. In July, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1743 million tons, up 3.47% month - on - month and 14.21% year - on - year [34]. - **Downstream Operating Rates**: As of August 14, the weekly operating rate of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises rose to 70.61%, up 1.75 percentage points week - on - week and down 10.31 percentage points year - on - year. In July, the operating rates of copper foil, copper tube, and copper strip were 77.28%, 68.94%, and 65.63% respectively [36]. - **Imports and Exports**: As of August 15, the SHFE - LME copper ratio was 8.10, and the copper spot import profit and loss remained negative but the negative value narrowed. In June, China's refined copper imports were 300,500 tons, up 5.11% year - on - year; unforged copper and copper products imports were 460,000 tons, up 6.5% year - on - year [39]. - **Inventory**: As of August 15, the SHFE copper inventory was 86,300 tons, up 5.41% week - on - week. As of August 14, the domestic copper social inventory was 125,600 tons, with a weekly increase of 12,700 tons, down 4.85% week - on - week. As of August 15, the LME copper inventory was 155,800 tons, down 0.03% week - on - week. The global visible copper inventory was 601,300 tons, up 0.35% week - on - week [48].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Express Delivery Industry**: Significant progress in anti-involution, with Guangdong leading price increases, followed by other provinces. Companies to watch include Shentong, YTO, Yunda, Zhongtong, and Jitu Express for their potential in emerging markets [3][3][3]. - **Aviation Industry**: Stocks showed unusual activity due to industry self-discipline notifications. Current market conditions are at a bottom, suggesting potential for recovery. Recommended stocks include major Hong Kong airlines and Huaxia Airlines in A-shares, along with Spring Airlines and Juneyao Airlines [4][4][4]. - **Coking Coal Market**: Prices are expected to rise significantly, benefiting companies like Jiayou International. Recovery in the African market, particularly with Zijin Mining's Kamoa mine, will support its operations [5][5][5]. - **Chemical Industry**: The chemical product price index (CCPI) is at 4,034 points, with a slight decline recently. However, a recovery is anticipated in Q4 2023 to Q1 2024. Key companies include Wanhua Chemical and Satellite Chemical, with the latter showing a low valuation despite a solid performance [6][6][6]. - **Refrigerant Market**: Prices are on the rise due to limited supply, enhancing manufacturers' pricing power. Companies like Juhua and Sanmei are expected to see significant growth potential [8][8][8]. - **Palm Oil Market**: Prices have increased, benefiting Zanyu Technology's operations in Indonesia, with production expected to double in the second half of the year [9][9][9]. - **Agricultural Chemicals**: Strong demand is noted, particularly for glyphosate, with prices rising significantly. Companies like Sinochem and Xingfa Group are highlighted for their growth potential [11][11][11]. - **Copper Industry**: Current valuations suggest significant upside potential for Jiangxi Copper and China Nonferrous Mining, with both companies positioned for recovery [14][14][14]. Company-Specific Insights - **China Shenhua**: Plans to acquire high-quality assets from the State Energy Group, expected to enhance asset scale and profitability. The acquisition includes multiple core assets and is projected to significantly boost net assets and profits [16][16][16]. - **Wanhua Chemical**: Reported a net profit of 3.04 billion yuan in Q2, exceeding expectations, with improvements in TDI gross margins and overall business performance [6][6][6]. - **Jiayou International**: Anticipated profit growth in coking coal trade due to rising market prices and recovery in African operations [5][5][5]. - **Zanyu Technology**: Expected profit increase from its Indonesian base, with production capacity projected to double [10][10][10]. Additional Considerations - **Market Sentiment**: The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed 3,700 points, indicating a potential slow bull market, particularly in cyclical stocks like express delivery, aviation, and coking coal [2][2][2]. - **Policy Impact**: Anti-involution policies and other regulatory measures are expected to support price recovery in various sectors, particularly in chemicals and coal [12][12][12]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Focus on high-dividend coal companies and turnaround potential in coking companies under current market conditions [19][19][19]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and recommendations from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market landscape and potential investment opportunities.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macroeconomic sentiment is warming, market risk appetite is rising, and there is potential for macro - micro resonance. Copper prices are expected to oscillate upwards with a higher center of gravity. It is recommended to try long positions on dips. In the long - term, copper is bullish due to its status as an important strategic resource in the Sino - US game, tight copper concentrate supply, and the booming green copper demand. The focus range for SHFE copper is [78,000, 81,000] yuan/ton, and for LME copper is [9,650, 9,950] US dollars/ton [6]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Viewpoint Summary - The core view is that with warming macro sentiment and rising market risk appetite, there may be macro - micro resonance, and copper prices will rise with a higher center of gravity. It is advisable to try long positions on dips. The strategy outlook is that although US PPI exceeds expectations and weakens the Fed's rate - cut intensity, the Fed's rate - cut path in September is almost certain. The short - term A - share slow - bull market and commodity anti - involution restlessness in China have increased market risk appetite. Fundamentally, overseas copper mine disruptions coexist with high domestic refined copper production, and the expectation of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is fermenting, with tight domestic social inventories supporting copper prices. In the long - term, copper is promising. The operation strategy is to try long positions on dips [6]. 2. Macroeconomic - **Policy Boosting Consumption**: Three departments jointly issued the "Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Personal Consumption Loans", and nine departments including the Ministry of Finance issued the "Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Service Industry Business Entities' Loans". The central bank and other four departments explained these two interest - subsidy policies, which will form a "combination punch" with other policies. In 2025, 188 billion yuan of investment subsidies for equipment renewal supported by ultra - long - term special treasury bonds have been allocated, driving total investment of over 1 trillion yuan. The short - term A - share slow - bull market has increased market risk appetite [8]. - **Sino - US Trade Relations**: The Sino - US Stockholm economic and trade talks issued a joint statement, suspending 24% tariffs for another 90 days. However, the US Congress passed the "2025 Sanctions Against Russia Act", and there are concerns about Sino - US trade relations [9]. - **US Economic Data**: US July PPI data exceeded expectations, weakening the Fed's rate - cut intensity in September. There are differences within the Fed on the rate - cut rhythm. The US dollar index rebounded, and commodities were slightly pressured [10][12]. - **China's Macroeconomic Data**: From January to July, China's industrial added value, manufacturing investment, and social consumption showed different trends. In July, social financing performed well, but credit performance was average [15]. - **US Copper Industry Dilemma**: The US has a high dependence on copper imports. Trump plans to reduce the import dependence from 45% to 30% by 2035. The short - term impact of US copper tariff policies on China's copper product exports is limited [19]. 3. Supply - Demand Analysis - **Price Performance**: SHFE copper is stronger than overseas copper. The COMEX - LME copper price spread has returned to the normal historical range. LME copper has a negative basis, and domestic electrolytic copper spot has a positive basis [33]. - **Copper Concentrate Supply**: There have been disruptions in copper concentrate supply overseas, but the domestic supply situation has improved marginally. The copper concentrate TC has increased [40]. - **Crude Copper and Scrap Copper Market**: The supply of crude copper and scrap copper is tight, and the price difference between refined and scrap copper has converged, with a weak scrap copper substitution effect [45]. - **Refined Copper Supply and Demand**: The supply of smelters has high elasticity, and the refined copper supply and demand are in a tight balance throughout the year. The production of electrolytic copper may decline in the future due to increased smelter maintenance [50]. - **Downstream Demand**: Currently in the traditional consumption off - season, the downstream processing enterprises' operation rate is weak. However, terminal power and new - energy vehicle demand show resilience [55][60]. - **Inventory Situation**: Overseas copper inventory accumulation has slowed down, while domestic copper social inventory is tight, at a historically low level [70]. - **Speculative Positions**: Speculative net long positions have declined, and the net capital of SHFE copper positions has flowed out [79]. 4. Summary and Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: The Sino - US economic and trade talks and US CPI data initially boosted market confidence, but the US July PPI exceeded expectations, weakening the Fed's rate - cut intensity and pressuring copper prices. China's July social financing was good, but credit was average. The short - term A - share slow - bull market has increased market risk appetite [81]. - **Fundamental - aspect**: Copper concentrate supply has improved marginally, but refined copper production may decline in the future. Currently in the off - season, downstream demand is weak, but it is expected to pick up in the peak season. Overseas inventory accumulation has slowed, and domestic inventory is tight, with power and automotive demand performing well, and the annual copper supply - demand in a tight balance [81]. - **Overall Strategy**: Although the US PPI weakens the Fed's rate - cut intensity, the Fed's rate - cut path in September is almost certain. It is recommended to try long positions on dips, and enterprises should wait for high - level opportunities for selling hedging. In the long - term, copper is bullish [82].

铜产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·季先飞·首席分析师/有色及贵金属 组联席行政负责人 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 日期：2025年08月17日 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 1 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铜：基本面边际改善，但宏观存不确定性，价格震荡 强弱分析：中性，价格区间：77000-81000元/吨 国内现货升贴水改善 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 01-02 01-14 01-26 02-08 02-20 03-04 03-16 03-28 04-10 04-22 05-07 05-19 05-31 06-12 06-24 07-06 07-18 07-30 08-11 08-23 09-04 09-16 09-28 10-17 10-29 11-10 11-22 12-04 12-16 12-28 元/吨 1#电解铜升贴水 2020 ...

上半年所得税费用同比大幅增加近150% 《每日经济新闻》记者注意到，2025年第二季度，铜陵有色营收为408.58亿元，同比增长5.33%；归母 净利润为3.12亿元，同比大幅下滑71.23%，环比大幅下滑72.36%。也就是说，铜陵有色第二季度出 现"增收不增利"的情况。 如果将时间线拉长，铜陵有色第二季度归母净利润的同比降幅为2023年第四季度以来最大，环比降幅则 为2024年第四季度以来最大。 铜陵有色在半年报中称，今年上半年公司归母净利润同比下降，主要系境外子公司分红安排调整导致所 得税费用增加。具体来看，铜陵有色今年上半年所得税费用约24.95亿元，同比大幅增长147.74%。 而针对上述"境外子公司分红安排"，铜陵有色在半年报中进行了详细说明。 公司称，"鉴于中铁建铜冠（铜陵有色控股子公司）境外子公司Ecuacorriente S.A.（以下简称ECSA）现 金流情况显著好于预期，境外政治经济环境存在一定不确定性，为妥善做好中铁建铜冠后续经营管理工 作，中铁建铜冠拟调整境外子公司ECSA分红安排，依据其资金状况、留存收益情况以及铜行业市场节 奏，要求ECSA对其进行利润分配，以保障资金安全，防范风 ...

铜周报 2025/08/16 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 吴坤金（有色金属组） 波动下降，等待进一步驱动 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 03 利润库存 06 资金端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 04 供给端 02 期现市场 05 需求端 ◆ 供应：铜精矿现货加工费小幅回升，粗铜加工费环比持平，冷料供应边际平稳。消息面，智利国家铜业公司（Codelco）表示，埃尔特尼恩 特（EI Teniente）铜矿的冶炼厂已经重启运行。 ◆ 库存：三大交易所库存环比增加0.7万吨，其中上期所库存增加0.4至8.6万吨，LME库存微增至15.6万吨，COMEX库存增加0.3至24.2万吨。上 海保税区库存增加0.5万吨。现货方面，周五国内上海地区现货升水期货180元/吨，LME市场Cash/3M贴水93.8美元/吨。 ◆ 进出口：国内电解铜现货进口亏损缩窄，洋山铜溢价下滑。海关总署数据显示，2025年7月我国未锻轧铜及铜材进口量为48万吨，环比增加 1.6万吨，同比增加9.6%，1-7月累计进口量为3 ...