Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The total demand for industrial silicon from the three major downstream industries remains flat. The current industry inventory is still at a high level, and although the number of standard warehouse receipts has decreased, inventory digestion still faces certain pressure. Today's technical form shows a decrease in volume, and it is expected to continue to oscillate and build a bottom. It is recommended that if the price falls below 8,200 yuan later, one can consider mid - to long - term bottom - fishing to buy long positions [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 8,490 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan; the position of the main contract is 279,742 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 1,738 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 69,982 lots, a week - on - week increase of 1,758 lots; the warehouse receipts of GZEE are 50,400 lots; the price difference between September and October industrial silicon is 40 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 70 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 9,100 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change; the average price of 421 silicon is 9,400 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change; the basis of the Si main contract is 610 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan; the spot price of DMC is 11,020 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 80 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, the average price of petroleum coke is 1,810 yuan/ton, the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, all with no week - on - week change [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 333,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8,500 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, a month - on - month increase of 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12,197.89 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,700 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change; the weekly average spot price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 6.2 US dollars/kg, a week - on - week increase of 1.26 US dollars/kg; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kg, with no week - on - week change; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 24,908.89 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 70.59%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.12 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.536 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 133,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 337.93 tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The export value of photovoltaic silicon wafers is 600 million US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 54.2%, and the export volume is 2.94 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 5%; the export value of photovoltaic cells is 1.73 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 31.1%, and the export volume is 44.4 GW, a year - on - year increase of 59.1%; the export value of photovoltaic modules is 11.54 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 29.3%, and the export volume is 120.5 GW, a year - on - year decrease of 17.7% [2]. 3.7 Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: In the southwest region, with the deepening of the wet season, the electricity price advantage is more obvious, and the resumption process of silicon plants is accelerating. The number of newly opened furnaces in Sichuan, Yunnan and other places has increased, and it is expected that the output in the southwest region will increase week - on - week next week. In Xinjiang, some large factories maintain stable production, but the enthusiasm of small and medium - sized silicon plants to resume production is not high, and the overall output is relatively stable [2]. - **Demand**: - **Organic silicon**: The organic silicon market is rising, profits are increasing, and there is also an expectation of increased production in the organic silicon industry, but the driving effect on the demand for industrial silicon is negative [2]. - **Polysilicon**: The downstream polysilicon industry is expected to significantly increase production in August, increasing the demand for industrial silicon. Polysilicon enterprises have raised prices strongly due to the "anti - involution" policy, and the enthusiasm for starting work has increased. However, the price increase in the downstream links is limited, and in the long run, the demand in the photovoltaic industry is expected to shrink, which may limit the continuous growth of polysilicon's demand for industrial silicon [2]. - **Aluminum alloy**: The overall inventory continues to rise significantly. Although the price has increased, the operation of the aluminum alloy industry is stable, but the demand performance is average, and the driving effect on industrial silicon is limited [2].

Report Information - Date: September 3, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] - Researchers: Li Jie, Ren Junchi, Peng Haozhou, Peng Jinglin, Liu Youran, Feng Zeren [1][3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The industrial silicon market is in a state of supply - demand imbalance. The supply has increased significantly, while the demand has no obvious growth. The market is expected to have wide - range oscillations, and attention should be paid to the support level at 8200 yuan [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The Si2511 closed at 8470 yuan/ton, up 1.13%. The trading volume was 345,613 lots, and the open interest was 281,480 lots, with a net decrease of 3,969 lots [4]. - **Spot Price**: The industrial silicon spot price started low and ended high, fluctuating. The Sichuan 553 price was 8900 yuan/ton, Yunnan 553 was 8550 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia 421 was 9400 yuan/ton, Xinjiang 421 was 9150 yuan/ton, and Sichuan 421 was 9600 yuan/ton [4]. - **Future Outlook**: The supply increase is obvious, with the weekly output reaching 90,000 tons, equivalent to about 390,000 tons per month. The demand has no obvious increase. The polysilicon production in September was reduced from 145,000 tons to 120,000 - 130,000 tons. The total volume of organic silicon, alloys, and exports remained stable. The industry is in a supply - demand imbalance, and there is no inventory reduction drive. Policy implementation does not focus on the industrial silicon industry, and the weak fundamental drive has led to a recent decline in high - priced silicon, with the market fluctuating widely [4]. 3.2 Market News - On September 3, the futures warehouse receipt volume of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50,029 lots, a net decrease of 371 lots from the previous trading day [5]. - According to customs data, in July 2025, China's metallic silicon exports were 74,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.32% and a year - on - year increase of 36.75%. From January to July 2025, China's total metallic silicon exports were 414,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.04% [5]. - From January to July 2025, the cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity reached 1109.6GW, and the newly added installed capacity was 223.25GW. In July, the newly added installed capacity was 11GW, a year - on - year decrease of 47.7%, hitting a new low in 2025 [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - Multiple factors such as the continuous fermentation of Fed Governor Cook's incident, the rebound of US PCE in July in line with expectations, and dovish remarks from Fed officials have strengthened the market's expectation of a rate cut in September, and the possibility of the US entering a "stagflation - like" situation is increasing, leading to the strong rise of precious metals and the expectation of a continued high - level and strong - side shock in the future [2]. - The macro - environment has both positive and negative factors for the non - ferrous metals market. Policy changes in the non - ferrous metals industry, production and supply situations, and consumption trends vary by metal type, affecting their respective price trends and providing different trading strategies [2][5][10] Summary by Metal Type Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - **Market Review**: London gold rose for five consecutive days, hitting a new high since April 22, up 0.83% to $3475.45 per ounce; London silver broke through the $40 mark for the first time since September 2011, up 2.48% to $40.674 per ounce. Affected by the external market, Shanghai gold rose 0.86% to 801.58 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver rose 2.46% to 9836 yuan per kilogram [2]. - **Important Information**: Trump may declare a national housing emergency this fall, and the Fed is likely to cut interest rates in September and October [2]. - **Logic Analysis**: Multiple factors strengthen the market's expectation of a rate cut in September, and the possibility of the US entering a "stagflation - like" situation is increasing, so precious metals are expected to continue a high - level and strong - side shock [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the long - position of precious metals, consider holding the previous long positions based on the 5 - day moving average, and pay attention to the resistance at the $3500 integer mark of London gold. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [3] Copper - **Market Review**: The night - session of Shanghai copper 2510 contract closed at 79660 yuan per ton, down 0.06%, and the LME closed at $9875 per ton, down 0.11%. LME inventory decreased by 25 tons to 15.88 million tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 2617 tons to 27.78 million tons [5]. - **Important Information**: The US Treasury Secretary commented on the Fed, and the German economic minister called for a strategy to deal with China's large - scale procurement of scrap copper [5]. - **Logic Analysis**: The macro - environment strengthens the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut. The supply of electrolytic copper is relatively sufficient, but the deliverable supply is relatively tight. Terminal consumption is weakening, but the substitution of refined copper for scrap copper is prominent [5][6]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the long - position, expect high - level consolidation. For arbitrage, consider cross - market positive arbitrage, with a fast - in and fast - out approach for virtual - position positive arbitrage. For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [7][8] Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2510 contract rose 6 yuan to 2998 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions were mostly stable, with a decrease in Xinjiang [10]. - **Important Information**: An electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang tendered for alumina, with a lower winning price. The national alumina operating capacity decreased slightly, and inventories increased [10][11][12]. - **Logic Analysis**: Spot trading has become more frequent, but the spot price is expected to decline. The overall supply remains high, and inventory is expected to continue to increase [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the long - position, expect the alumina price to maintain a weak trend. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [13] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The night - session of the cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 10 yuan to 20285 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions were mostly stable, with an increase in the East China region [15]. - **Important Information**: Policy changes in the recycled aluminum industry are affecting some enterprises. Social inventories of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased, and imports decreased [15][16][17]. - **Logic Analysis**: Policy changes have affected the recycled aluminum industry, with a shortage of scrap aluminum. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the supply is tightening. Alloy ingot prices are expected to be stable and slightly stronger [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the long - position, expect the price to fluctuate at a high level with the aluminum price. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [18][19] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The night - session of Shanghai aluminum 2510 contract rose 20 yuan to 20690 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions decreased. The price of thermal coal also decreased [21]. - **Important Information**: China's manufacturing PMI improved slightly, and aluminum ingot inventories increased. Two large - scale electrolytic aluminum projects are under construction [22]. - **Logic Analysis**: The macro - environment has both positive and negative factors. The output of aluminum rods increased, and the inventory of aluminum ingots in factories decreased. The downstream processing industry is recovering [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the long - position, expect the aluminum price to fluctuate with the external market in the short term. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [25] Zinc - **Market Review**: The LME zinc rose 0.68% to $2833 per ton, and Shanghai zinc 2510 remained unchanged at 22195 yuan per ton. Spot trading in Shanghai was light [27]. - **Important Information**: Domestic zinc inventories increased, and a zinc smelter in Guangxi will undergo maintenance [27]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of zinc ore is sufficient, but the output of refined zinc may decrease in September. The downstream consumption in North China is affected by environmental protection, while that in South and East China is improving [27][28]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the long - position, expect the zinc price to be stronger in a certain range. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [29] Lead - **Market Review**: The LME lead rose 0.5% to $2007 per ton, and Shanghai lead 2510 rose 0.53% to 16930 yuan per ton. Spot trading was weak [30]. - **Important Information**: A new standard for electric bicycles was implemented on September 1, 2025 [30]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of lead concentrate is tight, and the production of lead smelters is decreasing. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs [30]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the long - position, expect the lead price to rise slightly. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [31] Nickel - **Market Review**: The LME nickel rose $70 to $15475 per ton, and Shanghai nickel NI2510 rose 630 yuan to 123400 yuan per ton. The premium of different nickel products decreased [34]. - **Important Information**: Demonstrations in Indonesia have not affected the nickel industry for now. New RKAB quota regulations will be implemented in September, and a Chinese company won a nickel mine project in the Solomon Islands [35]. - **Logic Analysis**: The macro - environment is variable in September. The riots in Indonesia may affect market sentiment. The supply and demand in China are relatively balanced in the short term, and the price is expected to be stronger in a shock [35]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the long - position, expect the nickel price to be stronger in a shock. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [36][37] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The stainless steel SS2510 contract rose 130 yuan to 13005 yuan per ton. Spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel are given [39]. - **Important Information**: Nickel prices are rising, and the global stainless steel output in the first half of 2025 is announced [39]. - **Logic Analysis**: The rise in nickel prices drives up the price of stainless steel. The inventory of stainless steel decreased slightly, and there is an optimistic expectation for the peak season in September [39]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the long - position, expect the stainless steel price to be stronger in a shock. For arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach [40] Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures rose 0.89% to 8495 yuan per ton, and most spot prices were stable or slightly decreased [42]. - **Important Information**: A silicon - related standardization seminar will be held in September [43]. - **Logic Analysis**: The demand for industrial silicon from the organic silicon industry is expected to weaken, while the demand from polysilicon may increase. The supply is increasing, and the price may rebound in the short term [43]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the long - position, expect a short - term rebound. For arbitrage, consider reverse arbitrage between the 11th and 12th contracts. For options, there is no strategy provided [43] Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures rose 6.03% to 52285 yuan per ton. Spot prices of different types of polysilicon showed different trends [45]. - **Important Information**: Domestic polysilicon prices rose [47]. - **Logic Analysis**: Although the output of polysilicon increases in September, the limited sales by enterprises and the increase in silicon wafer production provide upward momentum for the price [47]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the long - position, hold long positions and partially take profits near the previous high. For arbitrage, consider reverse arbitrage between the 11th and 12th contracts. For options, sell out - of - the - money put options and buy call options [47] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The lithium carbonate 2511 contract fell 1860 yuan to 75560 yuan per ton. Spot prices of electric and industrial lithium carbonate decreased [49]. - **Important Information**: Porsche adjusted its battery business, a battery factory in China was put into production, and Tianqi Lithium prepared for the industrialization of lithium sulfide [49][50][52]. - **Logic Analysis**: The production of batteries and cathodes is increasing in September, but the output of lithium carbonate may be affected by raw materials. The price is looking for support, and opportunities to go long after stabilization should be noted [52]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the long - position, consider buying after the price stabilizes. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [52] Tin - **Market Review**: The Shanghai tin 2510 contract rose 0.2% to 274320 yuan per ton. Spot prices decreased, and trading inquiries increased [54]. - **Important Information**: The US Treasury Secretary commented on the Fed [54]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is in the off - season. The LME inventory increased, and attention should be paid to future production resumption and demand recovery [55]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the long - position, expect the tin price to fluctuate. For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [56]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The fundamentals of industrial silicon show both supply and demand increases, but the inventory pressure remains high. In the short - term, affected by macro - sentiment fluctuations and the driving force of polysilicon, the silicon price is expected to remain at a high level, with an operating range of 8,000 - 10,000 yuan/ton [3]. - The fundamentals of polysilicon present a situation of strong supply and weak demand. However, due to anti - involution and supply reform, the quotes of holders are firm, and the bullish sentiment is still strong. In the short - term, the price is expected to maintain a high - level consolidation, with an operating range of 44,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Chain Price Review - **Industrial Silicon**: From August 22 to August 29, 2025, most industrial silicon prices showed a downward trend. For example, the industrial silicon futures main - contract closing price decreased by 355 yuan/ton, a decline of 4.06%. The prices of different types of industrial silicon in various regions also decreased to varying degrees [10]. - **Polysilicon**: The prices of N - type dense materials, N - type re - feeding materials, etc. remained unchanged during this period, while the prices of some silicon wafers, battery cells, and components showed small fluctuations [10]. - **Organic Silicon**: The average price of DMC remained unchanged, while the average price of 107 glue decreased by 0.86% and the average price of silicone oil decreased by 0.38% [10]. - **Silicon Aluminum Alloy**: The average price of ADC12 increased by 300 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.47%, while the average price of A356 remained unchanged [10]. 3.2 North - South Increase, Continuous Increment in Supply - **Industrial Silicon Supply**: In the week of August 28, the number of silicon - enterprise furnaces in operation increased by 12 compared with the previous week. The production in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and other regions also increased to varying degrees. For example, Xinjiang's production increased by 1,980 tons, and its operating rate increased from 58.48% to 62.57% [39]. - **Polysilicon Supply**: In July, some polysilicon enterprises increased production, with the monthly output reaching about 110,000 tons. In August, it is expected to increase to about 130,000 tons. Last week, the polysilicon output was 31,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,900 tons [3][68]. 3.3 Improved Transactions, Reduction in Polysilicon Inventory - As of August 28, the total polysilicon inventory decreased to 213,000 tons, a decrease of 36,000 tons. Multiple upstream and downstream enterprises completed procurement and shipments before the end of August, resulting in a significant increase in the trading volume of the polysilicon market and a relatively obvious decline in inventory [3][68]. 3.4 Peak - Season Demand Not Yet Apparent, Weak Organic Silicon Prices - **Supply**: In August, the DMC operating rate was 75.63%, a month - on - month increase of 7.9 percentage points, and the output was 223,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 23,300 tons. Last week, due to anti - involution in the industry, some local devices reduced their loads for maintenance, resulting in a slight decline in weekly production [97]. - **Demand and Price**: The organic silicon prices weakened. As of August 29, the average DMC price remained unchanged, the average 107 glue price decreased by 0.86%, and the average silicone oil price decreased by 0.38%. Downstream demand was mainly for rigid procurement, and new orders were weak [103]. 3.5 Aluminum Alloy Operating Rate with Minor Fluctuations - **Operating Rate**: In the week of August 28, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 56.4%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 percentage points, while the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 53.5%, a week - on - week increase of 0.5 percentage points [111]. - **Price**: The aluminum alloy prices rebounded. As of August 29, the average ADC12 price increased by 1.47%, and the average A356 price remained unchanged [114]. 3.6 High Inventory Pressure - **Industrial Silicon Inventory**: As of August 28, the industrial silicon social inventory (social inventory + delivery warehouse) was 541,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,000 tons. The total factory inventory in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan was 173,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,600 tons. As of August 29, the exchange - registered warehouse receipts were 50,453 lots, equivalent to 252,300 tons of spot [124]. - **Monthly Supply - Demand Balance**: The industrial silicon supply - demand balance showed different situations in different months. From January 2024 to July 2025, the supply - demand balance fluctuated, with some months having a surplus and some having a deficit [125].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The document does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The direction of monetary policy in the second half of 2025 is crucial for the equity market. After a significant increase in A-shares, they may enter a high-level shock pattern [2]. - In the short term, the 10-year treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate between 1.75% - 1.8%. Gold shows a strong shock trend, and copper prices are rising due to improved interest rate cut expectations [2]. - Many commodities such as steel, iron ore, coking coal, and coke are facing price - related challenges. Some suggest strategies like long steel - to - ore ratio and shorting at high prices [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: After a large increase in A - shares, they may enter a high - level shock pattern. It is recommended to wait for the next direction decision [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 10 - year treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate between 1.75% - 1.8%. It is recommended to use range - bound operations for unilateral strategies and pay attention to the basis convergence strategy of TL contracts for spot - futures strategies [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is strongly fluctuating. It is advisable to be cautious when chasing long positions unilaterally. Buying at - the - money or in - the - money call options can be considered. Silver is affected by news and shows an upward shock [2][3]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Due to the improvement of interest rate cut expectations, the center of copper prices has risen, with the main contract reference range of 78500 - 80500 [2]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum oxide has a surplus pressure, and the disk is in a weak shock. Aluminum is in a high - level shock, and attention should be paid to whether the peak - season demand can be fulfilled. Aluminum alloy has a firm spot price [2]. - **Other Metals**: Nickel has an upward shock trend, and stainless steel has a strong disk due to improved spot trading, with cost support and weak demand in a game [3]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supported by geopolitical and supply risks, oil prices have rebounded. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally in the short term and use a positive - spread strategy for arbitrage [2]. - **Other Chemicals**: Many chemicals have different market situations. For example, ethylene glycol is expected to have limited downward space, while PVC is in a weakening trend [2]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: Corn futures are in a rebound adjustment, and palm oil may rise in the short term [2]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: Sugar has a relatively loose overseas supply outlook, and eggs have a weak peak - season performance [2]. Special and New Energy Commodities - **Special Commodities**: Glass has a high inventory, and it is recommended to short at high prices. Rubber has a strong fundamental situation and is in a high - level shock [2]. - **New Energy Commodities**: Polysilicon has risen significantly due to news stimulation, and lithium carbonate is in a wait - and - see state [2].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-02 现货报价再次上调，多晶硅盘面大幅上涨 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-09-01，工业硅期货价格维持震荡，主力合约2511开于8370元/吨，最后收于8495元/吨，较前一日结算变化（75） 元/吨，变化（0.89）%。截止收盘，2511主力合约持仓285449手，2025-09-01仓单总数为50400手，较前一日变化-53 手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9000-9100（0）元/吨；421#硅在9300-9500 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8400-8500（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8400-8500（0）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、西北、天 津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价也暂稳。97硅价格同样持稳。。 SMM统计8月28日工业硅主要地区社会库存共计54.1万吨，较上周环比减少0.2万吨。其中社会普通仓库11.9万吨， 较上周增加0.2万吨，社会交割仓库42.2万吨（含未注册成仓单及现货部分），较上周环比减少0.4万吨。（不含内蒙、 甘肃等地）。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价10500-11000（0）元/吨 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Report Core Views Macro and Financial Futures - Domestic supportive policies are gradually taking effect. In September, policies to promote service consumption will be the focus, which will support the growth of total retail sales of consumer goods to some extent, but the actual effect remains to be seen. Policies in the real - estate sector are advancing, but their impact on the overall market may be limited. The profitability of industrial enterprises has not been fundamentally improved. Overseas, the US economy and employment have shown resilience, and key economic data next week should be closely monitored [2]. - The core issue of the RMB exchange rate is the timing and pace of appreciation. In the short - term, the RMB is likely to appreciate, and the market may reach a "triple - price integration" pattern around 7.10. In the medium - term, the RMB needs a clear downward trend of the US dollar index and substantial positive changes in the domestic economy to achieve a trend - strengthening [4][5]. - As the 9.3 parade approaches, the stock index is expected to have increased volatility. The stock market is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term, while the bond market may expand its rebound space if the stock market experiences a high - level adjustment after September 3 [7][8]. Commodities Metals - Gold and silver are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long - term and strong in the short - term. The focus should be on US economic data this week, and the strategy is to buy on dips [12][15]. - Copper is expected to oscillate before the Fed's next interest - rate decision on September 19, with a mid - term strategy of low - level procurement [16][17]. - Aluminum is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term, with a price range of 20,500 - 21,000. Alumina is expected to be weakly volatile, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile and bullish [20][21]. - Zinc is expected to be strongly oscillating at the bottom in the short - term [23][24]. - Nickel and stainless steel prices rose under the influence of the Indonesian riot and strike. The short - term trend remains to be seen, depending on the development of the situation in Indonesia [24][25]. - Tin is expected to be slightly bullish in the short - term due to tight supply [26]. - The lithium carbonate market is in an adjustment phase. If downstream demand is released, prices may be supported; otherwise, it may remain weakly volatile [26][28]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to rise in an oscillatory manner. The rise of polysilicon is mainly affected by macro - sentiment and the expectation of a possible storage platform in September [29]. - Lead is expected to oscillate within a narrow range, with limited upside and downside [30]. Black Metals - Steel products continue to accumulate inventory beyond the seasonal norm. If demand does not improve, the downward space of the steel futures market depends on the tolerance of steel mills for profit shrinkage. Short - sellers can consider reducing positions to take profits [32][33]. - Iron ore prices have released risks. After the short - term risk release, short - sellers are advised to take phased profits [34][35]. - Coking coal may maintain a high - level wide - range oscillatory pattern in the short - term. Coke may face a price cut cycle after the parade. Unilateral speculation on short - selling coking coal is not recommended for now [37]. - Silicon iron and silicon manganese are expected to oscillate at the bottom. It is advisable to go long on the spread between the two when the spread reaches - 400 [38][40]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil is currently oscillating weakly. In September, the demand decline is a definite negative factor, and the market needs to wait for key events to clarify the direction. The overall outlook is bearish [42][43]. - Propylene's spot market is strong, and the futures market is oscillating. The northern market is tighter than the southern market [44][45]. - PX - TA's market is mainly characterized by structural contradictions. The overall pattern is "tight at the top and loose at the bottom," and the processing fee of PTA01 is recommended to be compressed when it is above 350 [46][49]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate between 4330 - 4550, and it is advisable to go long on dips [53]. - PP's supply is increasing, and the demand situation is unclear. Its future trend depends on whether downstream demand can maintain high - speed growth [54][55]. - PE is in a pattern of decreasing supply and increasing demand, but the demand recovery is not strong enough to drive the price up significantly. It is expected to oscillate for now [56][57]. - PVC's price has returned to the industrial fundamentals. With high inventory and weak demand, it is advisable to short - allocate it [58][59]. - Pure benzene is expected to be weakly oscillating, and for benzene - styrene, short - selling on the short - term single - side is not recommended. Wait for the end of the decline and then consider low - buying [60][61]. - Fuel oil has a weak rebound driven by cost, but the downward pressure remains. Low - sulfur fuel oil follows cost fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait for long - allocation opportunities [63][64]. - Asphalt is expected to oscillate and strengthen, mainly following cost fluctuations. The short - term peak season has no super - expected performance [65][66]. - Urea is in a stalemate. It is advisable to pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [67]. Group 3: Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro and Financial Futures Market Information - China's September 3 parade will last about 70 minutes. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization's Tianjin Summit has achieved eight results. There are various tariff - related news, including Trump's remarks on India's tariffs and possible US housing policies. There are also speculations about Fed officials' appointments [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - The previous trading day, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1332, down 2 basis points, and the night - session was at 7.1375. The central parity rate was 7.1072, down 42 basis points. The eurozone's manufacturing PMI in August showed expansion [3]. Stock Index - The stock index rose with reduced volume yesterday. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index closed up 0.60%. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 483.37 billion yuan. The futures of stock index also rose with reduced volume. The 9.3 parade is approaching, and key economic data have been released [7]. Bond - Bond futures opened low and closed high on Monday. The yields of medium - and long - term bonds declined. The funding situation was loose, and DR001 dropped to 1.31%. Relevant policies and the end of the summer travel season have been reported [8]. Container Shipping - The futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) opened high and then oscillated. Spot prices of some shipping companies have changed. The Houthi armed forces' remarks have affected the market sentiment. The current market is in the off - season, and the SCFIS European line index has continued to decline [10][11]. Commodities Metals Gold and Silver - On Monday, the precious metals market continued to be strong. COMEX gold closed up 0.84% at 3545.8 dollars per ounce, and silver closed up 2.46% at 41.725 dollars per ounce. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and fund positions are stable. Key US economic data and events this week should be monitored [12][15]. Copper - The Shanghai copper index was slightly bullish on Monday. Chile's copper production in July increased slightly. The collapse of a copper mine in July and the reduction of production guidance in August have affected the market. The key factors affecting copper prices are complex, with both bullish and bearish factors in the short - to - medium - term [16][17]. Aluminum and Related Products - The prices of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy have changed. The macro - environment is favorable for aluminum prices. The fundamentals of alumina are weak, and the supply of cast aluminum alloy may be affected by tax policies [19][22]. Zinc - The zinc price opened high and closed low. The supply is in an oversupply state, and the demand is stable. The LME inventory is decreasing, and the trading strategy of selling the outer market and buying the inner market can be considered [23][24]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The price of nickel rose, and stainless steel fell slightly. The spot prices of nickel - related products have changed. The market was affected by the Indonesian riot and strike, and the supply uncertainty has increased [24][25]. Tin - The Shanghai tin index slightly declined on Monday. Yunnan Tin's equipment maintenance and the decrease in refined tin production in August have affected the market. The short - term price may rise slightly due to tight supply [26]. Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate fell on Monday. The prices of lithium - related products in the spot market have declined. The supply has no new news, and the demand has marginal improvement expectations, but the increase in warehouse receipts may suppress the short - term price [26]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon rose on Monday. The prices of related products in the spot market are stable. The rise of polysilicon is affected by macro - sentiment and the expectation of a storage platform [26][29]. Lead - The lead price oscillated narrowly. The supply side is weak, and the demand is in a "peak - season not prosperous" situation. The domestic inventory is oscillating, and the LME inventory is high [30]. Black Metals Steel - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased. The production of Tangshan's blast furnaces has been affected by inspections, and most are expected to resume production on September 4. The steel market is in a state of over - seasonal inventory accumulation, and the demand has not shown significant seasonal strength [32][33]. Iron Ore - The price of iron ore fell and then rebounded. The global iron ore shipment volume in late August increased. The market is worried about the insufficient demand in the peak season, and short - sellers are advised to take phased profits [34][35]. Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke declined. The prices of coking coal in some regions have decreased. The downstream's replenishment of raw materials has slowed down, and the supply of coking coal and coke is relatively loose. Coke may face a price cut cycle after the parade [36][37]. Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese - The production and demand of silicon iron and silicon manganese have changed. The market was affected by the pre - parade steel mill restrictions and the decline of the "anti - involution" hype. The prices have fallen back, and the bottom support exists, but the upside is also under pressure [38][40]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The prices of US and Brent crude oil rose. There are news about the suspension of oil sales to an Indian refinery, the change in Shandong refineries' crude oil arrivals, and the expectation of OPEC+ to maintain production. The oil market is currently oscillating weakly, and the September demand decline is a negative factor [41][43]. Propylene - The futures prices of propylene rose slightly. The spot prices in different regions have changed. The supply and demand of propylene and its downstream products have changed. The spot market is tight, and the price is affected by multiple factors [44][45]. PTA - PX - The load of PX and PTA plants has changed. The supply of PX in September is expected to increase, and the PTA supply has decreased. The polyester demand has a marginal improvement, but the peak - season performance is not super - expected [46][48]. MEG - Bottle Chip - The inventory of ethylene glycol in East China ports decreased. The supply and demand of ethylene glycol and related products have changed. The market is currently in a state of limited drive, and the price is expected to oscillate [50][53]. PP - The futures price of polypropylene decreased. The supply has increased, and the demand has shown a recovery trend. The inventory has decreased. The market is affected by new device production and the uncertainty of demand [54][55]. PE - The futures price of polyethylene decreased. The supply has decreased slightly, and the demand has increased. The inventory has decreased. The current demand recovery is not strong enough to drive the price up significantly [56][57]. PVC - The production of PVC in August and September is estimated. The demand is weak, and the export has changed. The inventory is accumulating, and the price has returned to the industrial fundamentals [58][59]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The prices of pure benzene and styrene futures decreased. The inventory of pure benzene and styrene in ports has increased. The supply and demand of both have changed, and the prices are expected to be volatile [60][61]. Fuel Oil - The price of fuel oil rebounded weakly. The supply and demand of fuel oil have changed. The export in August decreased, and the demand is mixed. The market is still under pressure [62][63]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The price of low - sulfur fuel oil is mainly following cost fluctuations. The supply and demand and inventory of low - sulfur fuel oil have changed. The valuation is low, and it is advisable to wait for long - allocation opportunities [64]. Asphalt - The price of asphalt rose. The supply and demand and inventory of asphalt have changed. The short - term peak season has no super - expected performance, and it mainly follows cost fluctuations [65][66]. Urea - The futures price of urea is in a stalemate. The spot price is stable, and the demand is weak. The inventory has increased. It is advisable to pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [67].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The total demand for industrial silicon from the three major downstream industries remains flat. The current industry inventory is still at a high level, and although the number of standard warehouse receipts has decreased, inventory digestion still faces certain pressure. Polycrystalline silicon rose today, but industrial silicon did not follow, and there may be a catch - up increase later. Operationally, if the price later falls below 8,200 yuan, consider mid - to long - term long positions on dips [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 8,495 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan; the main contract position was 285,449 lots, down 6,966 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 75,977 lots, down 4,134 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts were 50,453 lots, down 203 lots; the price difference between September and October industrial silicon was - 20 yuan, up 15 yuan [2] Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon was 9,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Si main contract basis was 555 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan; the DMC spot price was 11,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of silica was 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke was 1,810 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of clean coal was 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips was 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) was 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon was 333,200 tons, an increase of 8,500 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon was 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon was 2,211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon was 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly output of silicone DMC was 44,900 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot was 20,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polycrystalline silicon was 6.2 US dollars/kg, an increase of 1.26 US dollars/kg; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polycrystalline silicon was 15.75 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unwrought aluminum alloy was 24,908.89 tons, a decrease of 861.29 tons; the weekly operating rate of silicone DMC was 70.59%, a decrease of 2.12 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy was 20,187.85 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy was 153,600 tons, a decrease of 337.93 tons [2] Industry News - Longi Green Energy reduced its loss by more than 50% year - on - year in the first half of this year. In the second quarter, it reduced its loss by 60.66% year - on - year and 21.10% quarter - on - quarter. From January to July, the total operating income of national state - owned and state - holding enterprises was flat compared with the same period last year, and the total profit decreased by 3.3% year - on - year. In terms of industrial silicon, on the supply side, the production in the southwest region is expected to increase next week, while the production in Xinjiang is relatively stable. On the demand side, the silicone market is expected to increase production, the polycrystalline silicon industry is expected to increase production significantly in August, and the aluminum alloy industry has general demand [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation [1] - Polysilicon: Oscillation [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The resumption rhythm of large factories in Xinjiang still affects the fundamental changes of industrial silicon. The price of industrial silicon may fluctuate between 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton in the short - term. For polysilicon, the spot price may remain firm under the narrative of capacity restructuring, and the price may operate between 46,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2511 contract of industrial silicon decreased by 355 yuan/ton to 8,390 yuan/ton week - on - week. The SMM spot average price of East China oxygen - passing 553 decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 9,050 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 remained flat at 8,450 yuan/ton. The PS2511 contract of polysilicon decreased by 1,850 yuan/ton to 49,555 yuan/ton, and the transaction price of N - type re - feeding material remained flat at 47,900 yuan/ton [8][9] 2. Slow Resumption of Large Factories in Xinjiang and Fierce Game at the Component Terminal Industrial Silicon - The main contract of industrial silicon futures fluctuated and declined this week. Xinjiang and Ningxia added 8 and 1 furnaces respectively, while Yunnan and Sichuan reduced 1 furnace each. Large factories in Xinjiang resumed 4 furnaces, with slow increase in operation, lower than expected. Southern operation remained stable, and some silicon factories may reduce production in the dry season at the end of October. The SMM industrial silicon social inventory decreased by 0.20 million tons week - on - week, and the sample factory inventory decreased by 0.16 million tons. It is estimated that industrial silicon will destock about 10,000 tons in August. If the operation of large factories in Xinjiang remains unchanged, it may accumulate about 30,000 tons from September to October and destock about 100,000 tons from November to December. However, if large factories in Xinjiang resume full production, it may be difficult to destock during the dry season [1][10] Organic Silicon - The price of organic silicon fluctuated this week. Due to equipment maintenance, the weekly output decreased. The overall enterprise operation rate was 72.71%, and the weekly output was 48,100 tons, a decrease of 4.37% week - on - week. New orders were limited, and inventory slightly accumulated. It is expected that the price of organic silicon will oscillate at a low level [10][11] Polysilicon - The main contract of polysilicon futures fluctuated downward this week. The average spot transaction price increased due to downstream restocking. As of the end of August, the factory inventory of polysilicon enterprises was 213,000 tons, and the downstream raw material inventory may rise to 220,000 - 250,000 tons. The production in September may increase to 132,000 tons. There are rumors of strict production and sales restrictions starting from September. The first - stage price regulation of polysilicon "anti - involution" is basically determined, and the second - stage upward force may come from the relief fund and capacity restructuring plan [2][12] Silicon Wafers - The transaction price of silicon wafers increased this week. The inventory of silicon wafer factories was 18.05GW as of August 28, an increase of 0.64GW month - on - month. The production in September may increase, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short - term [13] Battery Cells - The transaction price of battery cells increased this week. The inventory of Chinese photovoltaic battery export factories was 7.03GW as of August 25, an increase of 1.22GW month - on - month. The production in September may increase, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short - term [13] Components - The component price increased slightly this week. New orders were few, and most were executing previous orders. The centralized project delivery price was around 0.68 - 0.69 yuan/watt, and some distributed projects could accept prices above 0.7 yuan/watt. Component and terminal are in a fierce game. Component prices are expected to rise, but terminal demand may decline [14] 3. Investment Suggestions - Industrial silicon: Pay attention to the resumption progress of large factories in Xinjiang and focus on range - trading opportunities. - Polysilicon: Adopt a callback - buying strategy. Consider 11 - 12 reverse arbitrage opportunities at around - 2,000 yuan/ton [3][15] 4. Hot News Sorting - The winning candidates for the second batch of photovoltaic project component procurement of China Resources Power in 2025 were announced. - Daquan Energy's revenue in the first half of 2025 was 1.47 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 67.93%. The company will continue the production - reduction strategy in the third quarter [16] 5. High - Frequency Data Tracking of the Industry Chain - The report provides multiple charts to track high - frequency data of industrial silicon, organic silicon, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, including prices, production, inventory, and profit data [17][26][30][34][40][48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, the supply side is expected to continue to resume production, and there are expectations of production cuts in downstream polysilicon. The pressure on the inventory side has not improved, so the futures prices are expected to be weak in the short - term. For polysilicon, the fundamentals show an increase in both supply and demand, with expectations of double production cuts later, and the terminal installation willingness continues to shrink. The price may fluctuate weakly in the short - term [9][10]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply - side disturbances are cooling down, and the demand schedule for September is relatively optimistic. However, the inventory transfer from upstream to downstream continues, and the return of goods from downstream weakens the transmission of increased demand. The fundamentals have limited support for the futures price, and it is expected to be mainly in a weak oscillation [83][84]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Part One: Non - ferrous and New Energy Price Monitoring - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The report monitors the closing prices of various non - ferrous metals, including the dollar index, exchange rate CNH, copper (both Shanghai and London), aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, alumina, and stainless steel. For example, the dollar index is at 97.8477, with a daily decline of 0.02%, a weekly increase of 0.13%, and an annual decrease of 9.80%. Industrial silicon is at 8390 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 2.10%, a weekly decline of 4.06%, and an annual decline of 23.62% [6]. - **New Energy Metals**: The price of industrial silicon is 8390 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 2.10%, a weekly decline of 4.06%, and an annual decline of 23.62%. The price of lithium carbonate is 77180 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.23%, a weekly decline of 2.25%, and an annual increase of 0.10% [6]. 3.2 Part Two: Industrial Silicon (SI) and Polysilicon (PS) 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - **Supply Side**: The national weekly production is 9.00 tons, a 2.25% increase from the previous week. The number of operating furnaces is 281, an increase of 12 from the previous week. In the main production areas, Xinjiang's weekly production is 4.13 tons, a 2.23% increase, with 8 more operating furnaces; Inner Mongolia's weekly production is 1.05 tons, remaining the same, with 1 more operating furnace; Yunnan's weekly production is 1.32 tons, a 3.12% increase, with 2 more operating furnaces; Sichuan's weekly production is 1.29 tons, a 1.57% increase, with the same number of operating furnaces [9]. - **Demand Side**: For polysilicon, the weekly production is 2.99 tons, a 0.67% increase, the factory inventory is 23.30 tons, a 4.91% decrease, and the profit per ton is about 61.54 yuan, a 45 - yuan increase. For organic silicon, the DMC weekly production is 4.81 tons, a 4.37% decrease, the factory inventory is 4.93 tons, a 1.02% increase, and the gross profit per ton is - 1859.38 yuan, a 200 - yuan increase per ton [9]. - **Inventory Side**: The explicit inventory is 68.82 tons, a 0.34% decrease, with a 19.32% increase compared to the same period last year. The industry inventory is 43.59 tons, a 0.34% decrease. The market inventory is 17.45 tons, remaining the same, and the factory inventory is 26.14 tons, a 0.57% decrease. The warehouse - receipt inventory is 25.23 tons, a 0.34% decrease [9]. - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 9092 yuan, remaining the same, and the profit per ton is 123 yuan, a 12 - yuan decrease per ton. In the main production areas, the average profit per ton in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan is 504, 131, and 200 yuan respectively, a decrease of 33, 0, and 5 yuan per ton compared to the previous week [9]. - **Investment View**: The supply side continues to resume production, there are expectations of production cuts in downstream polysilicon, and the inventory pressure has not improved. It is expected that the futures price will be weak in the short - term [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Oscillation [9]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - **Supply Side**: The national weekly production is 2.99 tons, a 0.67% increase. In the main production areas, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Yunnan have weekly productions of 1.09, 0.57, 0.29, and 0.40 tons respectively, with Xinjiang having a 0.88% increase [10]. - **Demand Side**: The weekly production of silicon wafers is 12.73GW, a 1.22% increase. The factory inventory is 18.05GW, a 3.68% increase. In July, the production of silicon wafers was 52.75GW, a 10.35% decrease compared to the previous month and a 0.60% decrease compared to the same period last year. In August, the scheduled production is 53.29GW, a 1.02% increase compared to the previous month and a 2.04% decrease compared to the same period last year [10]. - **Inventory Side**: The factory inventory is 23.30 tons, a 4.91% decrease, and the registered warehouse receipts are 20640 tons, a 5.20% increase [10]. - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 41368 yuan, a 0.21% decrease, and the profit per ton is 6109 yuan, a 2324 - yuan increase [10]. - **Investment View**: Fundamentally, both supply and demand increase, with expectations of double production cuts later. The terminal installation willingness continues to shrink, and there is no significant positive news in the short - term. The price may oscillate weakly, with support considered at the full - cost level [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Oscillation [10]. 3.3 Part Three: Lithium Carbonate (LC) - **Supply Side**: The national weekly production is 1.90 tons, a 0.56% decrease. The production of lithium carbonate from spodumene is 12249 tons, a 0.57% increase; from lithium mica is 2500 tons, a 5.66% decrease; and from salt lakes is 2515 tons, a 1.45% decrease. In July, the production of lithium carbonate was 8.15 tons, a 4.41% increase compared to the previous month, a 26.00% increase compared to the same period last year, and 0.47% higher than the expected value. In August, the scheduled production is about 8.42 tons, a 3.27% increase compared to the previous month and a 37.29% increase compared to the same period last year [84]. - **Import Side**: In July, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 1.38 tons, a 21.77% decrease compared to the previous month and a 42.67% decrease compared to the same period last year. The import volume of spodumene concentrate was 57.61 tons, a 34.73% increase compared to the previous month and a 4.82% increase compared to the same period last year [84]. - **Demand Side**: For lithium - iron materials, the weekly production is 6.99 tons, a 1.03% decrease, and the factory inventory is 9.45 tons, a 0.91% increase. In July, the production was 29.07 tons, a 1.86% increase compared to the previous month, a 50.00% increase compared to the same period last year, and 1.07% lower than the expected value. In August, the scheduled production is 31.14 tons, a 7.12% increase compared to the previous month and a 47.24% increase compared to the same period last year. For ternary materials, the weekly production is 1.76 tons, a 0.17% increase, and the factory inventory is 1.78 tons, a 1.22% increase. In July, the production was 6.86 tons, a 5.75% increase compared to the previous month, a 16.70% increase compared to the same period last year, and 4.38% higher than the expected value. In August, the scheduled production is about 7.08 tons, a 3.07% increase compared to the previous month and a 14.34% increase compared to the same period last year. In July, the production of new energy vehicles was 124.30 million, a 1.95% decrease compared to the previous month and a 26.27% increase compared to the same period last year; the sales volume was 126.20 million, a 5.05% decrease compared to the previous month and a 27.41% increase compared to the same period last year. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in July was 48.67%, a 2.91 - percentage - point increase compared to the previous month [84]. - **Inventory Side**: The social inventory (including warehouse receipts) is 14.11 tons, a 0.29% decrease. The inventory of lithium - salt factories is 4.33 tons, a 7.49% decrease, and the inventory of downstream sectors (cathode factories, battery factories, and traders) is 9.78 tons, a 3.28% increase. The cathode - factory inventory is 5.28 tons, a 2.51% increase, and the inventory of battery factories and traders is 4.50 tons, a 4.19% increase. The inventory center continues to shift from upstream to downstream, and the actual production consumption is small, mostly belonging to inventory transfer between different links. The warehouse - receipt inventory is 2.99 tons, a 22.89% increase [84]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cash production cost of lithium carbonate from purchased lithium mica is 80022 yuan/ton, a 5.71% decrease, and the production profit is - 3245 yuan/ton, a 250 - yuan decrease. The cash production cost of lithium carbonate from purchased spodumene is 76440 yuan/ton, a 4.92% decrease, and the production profit is 2418 yuan/ton, a 1195 - yuan decrease. The cash production cost of lithium carbonate from integrated production using lithium mica is 61721 yuan/ton, and from spodumene is 52787 yuan/ton [84]. - **Investment View**: The supply - side disturbances are cooling down, and the demand schedule for September is relatively optimistic. However, the inventory transfer from upstream to downstream continues, and the return of goods from downstream weakens the transmission of increased demand. The fundamentals have limited support for the futures price, and it is expected to be mainly in a weak oscillation [84]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Oscillation [84].