能源化工期权 2025-06-03 能源化工期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | 能源化工期权策略早报概要：能源类：原油、LPG；聚烯烃类期权：聚丙烯、聚氯乙烯、塑料、苯乙烯；聚酯类期 权：对二甲苯、PTA、短纤、瓶片；碱化工类：烧碱、纯碱；其他能源化工类：橡胶等。 策略上：构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | （%） | (万手) | | (万手) | | | 原油 | SC2507 | 448 | -1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report Crude Oil - International crude oil futures prices have been rising, supported by a weakening US dollar and geopolitical risks. The supply - side OPEC+ production increase has alleviated concerns, but trade frictions suppress demand. After the holiday, the short - term trend depends on the US dollar, geopolitical situation, and supply - demand re - balancing. Unilateral trading can be in a slightly bullish direction, with WTI in the range of [59, 69], Brent [61, 71], and SC [440, 500]. Pay attention to the rebound opportunity of INE spreads and consider buying a straddle option to capture post - holiday volatility [8]. Styrene - In June, the supply - demand of styrene is expected to gradually become looser, and the price remains under pressure. However, due to tight spot circulation, the near - end price may fluctuate. It is advisable to take a short - selling approach [2]. Chlor - Alkali - For caustic soda, short - term spot prices remain strong. Before the fundamentals significantly weaken or warehouse receipts flow out, consider expanding the spread between the near - month and September contracts. For PVC, in the long - term, supply - demand contradictions are prominent. In June, supply pressure is expected to increase, and demand is weak. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach, with an operating range of 4500 - 5000, while also paying attention to macro - level disturbances [30][40]. Urea - The core contradiction of urea lies in high supply and weak demand expectations. Currently, supply is abundant, and demand is in a seasonal off - peak. After the Dragon Boat Festival, the market will test whether agricultural fertilizer procurement can start effectively. If not, it may further pressure the market [44]. Polyolefin - For plastics, there is an expectation of inventory reduction in early June due to increased maintenance and less imports. For PP, supply pressure will increase as maintenance ends. Demand lacks sustainability after a round of replenishment. Unilateral trading for PP can be short - biased at high prices, and the LP spread is expected to widen [46]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: In June, PX supply - demand is expected to be tight, but may weaken after mid - June. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Consider short - selling at high levels, gradually exit the PX9 - 1 positive spread, and look for opportunities to narrow the PX - SC spread [50]. - **PTA**: In June, PTA supply - demand remains tight but may weaken in late June. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Consider short - selling at high levels and exit the TA9 - 1 positive spread at high prices [50]. - **MEG**: In June, the supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol is good, with inventory reduction expectations. Consider buying EG09 at around 4200 and taking a positive spread for EG9 - 1 [50]. - **Short - fiber**: In June, short - fiber supply - demand is expected to be weak. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level following the cost. Consider expanding the PF July processing fee around 800 [50]. - **Bottle chips**: In June, bottle chip supply - demand is expected to improve, and processing fees will be supported. Consider expanding the processing fee at the lower end of the 350 - 600 yuan/ton range [50]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Price and Spread Data**: On June 3, Brent was at $65.12/barrel, WTI at $63.05/barrel. Some spreads such as Brent M1 - M3 and WTI M1 - M3 decreased, while SC M1 - M3 increased. Refined oil prices generally rose, and some cracking spreads decreased [8]. Styrene - **Price and Spread Data**: On May 30, most upstream prices decreased, and some styrene - related prices and spreads also changed. For example, styrene - pure benzene spread decreased by 2.5%. The supply - demand of styrene is expected to loosen in June [2]. Chlor - Alkali - **PVC and Caustic Soda Data**: On May 30, most PVC and caustic soda spot and futures prices were stable or changed slightly. Caustic soda exports had a small profit change, and PVC exports' profit increased significantly. In June, caustic soda maintenance is high, and PVC supply pressure is expected to increase [30][40]. Urea - **Futures and Related Data**: On May 30, most urea futures prices decreased slightly. Supply is high, with daily production increasing, and demand is weak, in a seasonal off - peak [44]. Polyolefin - **PE and PP Data**: On May 30, PE and PP futures prices decreased. Some spreads and basis values changed. In early June, plastics may see inventory reduction, while PP supply pressure will increase later [46]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Price and Spread Data**: On May 30, upstream and downstream prices in the polyester industry chain changed. For example, PX prices decreased, and some polyester product prices and cash - flows also changed. Different products in the polyester chain have different supply - demand and price trends in June [50].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The current oil price is in a high - valuation range, and OPEC's actual production is about to complete an increase, which will suppress the upper limit of oil prices. The oil price has entered a short - selling range on rallies [1]. - The supply pressure of methanol is still large, and the overall supply - demand pattern is weak. It is recommended to focus on short - selling on rallies. For cross - variety, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the PP - 3MA spread of the 09 contract on dips [3]. - For urea, the current supply remains high, and the demand is tepid. The price is expected to have no obvious trend, so it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - For rubber, the price has broken down. It is recommended to follow the trend, adopt a neutral or bearish mindset, conduct short - term operations, and enter and exit quickly. Pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [8][11]. - PVC is expected to remain weakly volatile in the short term, but beware of the rebound caused by the non - realization of weak export expectations [13]. - Polyethylene prices may remain volatile in June [15]. - Polypropylene prices are expected to be bearish in June [17]. - PX is expected to slow down inventory reduction in June and re - enter the inventory reduction cycle in the third quarter. It will oscillate at the current valuation level [19]. - PTA will continue to reduce inventory, and the processing fee is supported. It will oscillate at the current valuation level [20][21]. - Ethylene glycol is in the inventory reduction stage, but there is a risk of valuation correction [22]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose $2.25, or 3.70%, to $63.04; Brent main crude oil futures rose $1.22, or 1.91%, to $65.12; INE main crude oil futures fell 15.20 yuan, or 3.31%, to 444.1 yuan [1]. - **Data**: China's weekly crude oil data showed that the crude oil arrival inventory increased by 0.43 million barrels to 206.82 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 0.21%; gasoline commercial inventory decreased by 2.91 million barrels to 84.87 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 3.32%; diesel commercial inventory decreased by 3.93 million barrels to 95.35 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 3.96%; total refined oil commercial inventory decreased by 6.84 million barrels to 180.22 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 3.66% [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On May 30, the 09 contract fell 10 yuan/ton to 2208 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 12 yuan/ton, with a basis of +39 [3]. - **Analysis**: The weakening of inland prices and the stabilization of coal have led to a significant decline in corporate profits. With the return of previously shut - down plants, domestic supply will return to a high level, and imports in June will increase significantly. The demand side shows that the port MTO plants have restarted, while traditional demand continues to weaken. Although the decline in methanol has improved the downstream profits, the overall supply - demand pattern is still weak, and there is no upward driving force for the price [3]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On May 30, the 09 contract fell 11 yuan/ton to 1773 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged, with a basis of +67 [3]. - **Analysis**: The domestic production has reached a record high and is expected to remain at a high level in the short term. The spot price fluctuates weakly, and corporate profits are low. On the demand side, the summer fertilizer sales of compound fertilizers are coming to an end, with high finished - product inventory pressure. Agricultural demand will gradually increase in the summer, and exports are expected to improve but with a limited range [3]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU fell sharply before the holiday, and Japanese rubber continued to fall during the holiday [7]. - **Analysis**: Bulls believe that the weather, rubber forest conditions, and relevant policies in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, may contribute to rubber production cuts. Bears think that the macro - economic outlook has deteriorated, demand is weak and in the seasonal off - season, and high rubber prices will stimulate a large amount of new supply throughout the year, and the production cut may be less than expected [8]. - **Data**: As of May 30, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 64.78%, 0.16 percentage points lower than last week and 3.91 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 77.88%, 0.03 percentage points higher than last week and 2.40 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of May 18, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 134.2 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3 tons, or 0.96%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 81.8 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5%. The total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 52.4 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%. As of May 22, 2025, the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao was 48.93 (- 0.14) tons [9]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 20 yuan to 4764 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4680 (+30) yuan/ton, the basis was - 84 (+10) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 39 (+11) yuan/ton [13]. - **Analysis**: The corporate profit is under great pressure, but the maintenance season is approaching the end, and the future production is expected to increase. There is also an expectation of new plant commissioning. The downstream operating rate is still weak compared with previous years and is entering the off - season, and export orders are weakening. The cost of calcium carbide has decreased, and the valuation support has weakened [13]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The main contract closed at 7025 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan/ton, the spot price was 7125 yuan/ton, unchanged, the basis was 100 yuan/ton, and it weakened by 53 yuan/ton [15]. - **Analysis**: OPEC+ may announce to maintain the production increase plan of 411,000 barrels per day in July. The upside space of PE valuation is limited. The new production capacity in the second quarter is large, and the supply side may be under pressure. The inventory of the upper and middle reaches is reducing, which has limited support for the price. The seasonal off - season is coming, and the demand for agricultural film orders is decreasing. The short - term contradiction has shifted from the cost - led decline to the supply - side production - commissioning - led decline. There is no new production capacity commissioning plan in June, so the price may remain volatile [15]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The main contract closed at 6918 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton, the spot price was 7140 yuan/ton, unchanged, the basis was 222 yuan/ton, and it weakened by 25 yuan/ton [17]. - **Analysis**: OPEC+ may announce to maintain the production increase plan of 411,000 barrels per day in July. The spot price has not changed, but the decline is smaller than that of PE. There is a planned production capacity of 2.2 million tons to be put into operation in June, which is the most concentrated month of the year. The downstream operating rate is expected to decline seasonally. The seasonal off - season is coming, so the price is expected to be bearish in June [17]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract fell 170 yuan to 6618 yuan, PX CFR fell 10 dollars to 842 dollars, the basis was 355 yuan (+81), and the 9 - 1 spread was 230 yuan (- 18) [19]. - **Analysis**: The PX maintenance season is coming to an end. It is expected to slow down inventory reduction in June, but re - enter the inventory reduction cycle in the third quarter due to the commissioning of new PTA plants. The terminal textile and clothing exports are expected to be strong during the 90 - day tariff window period, the polyester inventory is still low, and the negative feedback pressure on the raw material side is small. The short - term valuation has risen to a moderately high level and is expected to oscillate at the current valuation [19]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract fell 114 yuan to 4700 yuan, the East China spot price fell 5 yuan/ton to 4945 yuan, the basis was 219 yuan (+20), and the 9 - 1 spread was 186 yuan (- 12) [20]. - **Analysis**: The supply side is still in the maintenance season, the polyester inventory pressure on the demand side is small, and it is not expected to cut production significantly. The previous negative feedback expectation has disappeared. PTA will continue to reduce inventory, and the processing fee is supported. The absolute price will oscillate at the current valuation due to the strong PXN [20][21]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 10 yuan to 4349 yuan, the East China spot price rose 12 yuan to 4495 yuan, the basis was 154 (+3), and the 9 - 1 spread was 70 yuan (- 9) [22]. - **Analysis**: The industry fundamentals are still in the inventory reduction stage. Domestic and overseas plants are under maintenance, the downstream operating rate is high, and the arrival volume is low. It is expected that the port inventory will continue to decrease. The terminal exports are strong during the tariff window period, and the polyester inventory pressure is small, so there is no negative feedback pressure. However, due to the large valuation repair and the approaching end of the supply - side maintenance season, there is a risk of valuation correction [22].

行业 聚烯烃日报 日期 2025 年 5 月 30 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall view of the energy - chemical products market is that most varieties are expected to show a volatile trend. For example, crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride are all rated as "volatile" [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, the price center of oil rose. WTI July contract closed up $0.95 to $61.84 per barrel, a 1.56% increase; Brent July contract closed up $0.81 to $64.9 per barrel, a 1.26% increase; SC2507 closed at 457.4 yuan per barrel, up 3.8 yuan per barrel, a 0.84% increase. OPEC+ did not adjust production policy on Wednesday but agreed to set a benchmark for 2027 oil production. There is a possibility of accelerated production increase in July. API data showed that US crude and gasoline inventories decreased last week while distillate inventories increased [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2507 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.13% to 2986 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2507 fell 1.03% to 3469 yuan per ton. In April 2025, China's fuel oil production was 3.563 million tons, down 8.73% month - on - month and up 2.86% year - on - year. In May, sales are expected to rise steadily. The Asian high - sulfur market will remain strong in the short term, but the demand for high - sulfur raw materials from refineries is still suppressed [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract BU2507 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 0.91% to 3481 yuan per ton. This week, the total inventory level of domestic refineries was 30.39%, up 0.08% from last week; the social inventory rate was 34.59%, down 0.24% from last week; the total operating rate of domestic asphalt plants was 30.49%, up 1.49% from last week. The short - term supply pressure of refineries is limited, but production may increase. The demand in the south is expected to be lower than expected due to the rainy season [3]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed at 4672 yuan per ton, down 1.43%; EG2509 closed at 4311 yuan per ton, down 1.73%. A 400,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Shaanxi reduced production for maintenance. The expected arrival volume at the main port of ethylene glycol this week is low. Downstream polyester manufacturers plan to cut production, and polyester prices are expected to fluctuate with the cost [5]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main rubber contract RU2509 fell 690 yuan per ton to 13805 yuan per ton, NR fell 670 yuan per ton to 12245 yuan per ton, and butadiene rubber BR fell 495 yuan per ton to 11150 yuan per ton. From January to April, Vietnam's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber decreased by 5.9% year - on - year. The rubber market shows a volatile trend [5]. - **Methanol**: The supply of methanol has decreased due to increased domestic plant maintenance but remains at a high level in the past five years. Overseas plant operation rates have decreased, but short - term arrivals are recovering. MTO plant operation rates have increased, and port and inland inventories are at low levels. Methanol prices are expected to remain volatile [7]. - **Polyolefins**: The mainstream price of East China drawn wire is 7000 - 7250 yuan per ton. The upstream is under maintenance, and the overall supply pressure is not large. Downstream enterprises are increasing raw material purchases, and inventories are decreasing. However, both inventory and supply are at relatively high levels, and polyolefin prices are expected to remain volatile [7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Wednesday, PVC prices in East, North, and South China decreased. Supply is expected to increase as maintenance devices resume operation. Domestic real estate construction is stable, and the operating rates of pipes and profiles remain relatively stable. PVC prices are expected to be volatile and weak [9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and other data of various energy - chemical products on May 29, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, fuel oil, methanol, etc. [10] 3.3 Market News - API data showed that last week, US crude and gasoline inventories decreased while distillate inventories increased. As of the week of May 23, US crude inventories decreased by 4.24 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 528,000 barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 1.3 million barrels [12]. - The Iraqi oil minister urged member states to comply with the agreement reached at the OPEC meeting, emphasizing the importance of unity for market stability [12] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the historical closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, LPG, PTA, etc. [14][15] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the historical basis charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt [31] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the historical spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [47] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It presents the historical spread and ratio charts between different varieties of energy - chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [63] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the historical production profit charts of some energy - chemical products, such as ethylene - to - ethylene glycol and PP [72] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy - chemical research team, including the director, analysts for different product categories, and their educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [77][78][79]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices rose slightly, maintaining a range - bound trend. The market is influenced by macro - geopolitical factors and supply marginal increments. The US trade court's ruling on Trump's global tariff policy and potential sanctions on Russia, along with OPEC + supply policies, are key factors. Demand is constrained by global trade frictions. Short - term, oil prices are expected to remain volatile, and breakthroughs require clarity on OPEC + production decisions and EU - US tariff games. Mid - to long - term, a band - trading strategy is recommended, and short - term, there are opportunities to short on rebounds. Suggested price ranges are [59, 69] for WTI, [61, 71] for Brent, and [440, 500] for SC. Attention should be paid to INE spread rebound opportunities and options to buy volatility during range - bound periods [2]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic Soda: In the short term, supply pressure is limited during the concentrated maintenance period. Demand from the alumina industry is expected to increase due to profit improvement and new production lines. However, non - aluminum demand pressure and cost decline pose risks. It is recommended to wait and see on single - side trades and attempt a 6 - 9 spread long position [7]. - PVC: Recently, PVC has been weak due to poor market sentiment. Fundamentally, long - term contradictions are prominent as real - estate demand remains sluggish, and exports face potential negative impacts. In the near term, supply pressure is limited during the maintenance period, and exports may remain positive due to BIS extension. PVC is expected to remain weak in the short term, and a mid - term short - selling strategy is recommended with resistance around 5100 for the 09 contract [7]. Polyolefins (PE and PP) - Spot prices continue to fall, but trading volume has improved. The overall market sentiment is pessimistic. For PE, maintenance will increase before early June, imports are low, and inventory is expected to decrease. For PP, supply pressure will increase after the maintenance peak in late May. Demand lacks sustainability after a round of restocking. It is recommended to short PP on rallies and expect the LP spread to widen [12]. Styrene - After the styrene delivery, short - covering cooled down, and the basis declined. The weak commodity market and inventory increases of pure benzene and styrene at the docks put downward pressure on the pure benzene market. The new - cycle port inventory of styrene has started to accumulate, increasing the pressure on high - price supplies. In the medium term, the low - profit situation of 3S products provides limited support for styrene, and Sino - US tariff disputes will negatively affect terminal demand. However, the overnight crude oil rebound may impact the chemical market. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and be bearish on styrene in the medium term [18]. Urea - The market is currently weak due to increased inventory pressure during the demand lull. If export - reserved inventory cannot be quickly digested, it will further intensify spot pressure. Urea exports are a potential turning point, depending on Middle East and South American procurement demand and export policies. If orders exceed expectations, inventory pressure may be relieved; otherwise, the market will remain loose [26]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Supply is increasing as some domestic and foreign devices resume production. Downstream PTA load is rising, and the short - term supply - demand situation is still good. Spot supplies are tight, and foreign buyers are supporting prices. PX is expected to oscillate between 6500 - 6800 in the short term, with strong support at the lower end. A 9 - 1 spread short position can be attempted, and the PX - SC spread can be narrowed [29]. - PTA: In late May, PTA devices restarted, and the supply - demand situation is weakening due to strong polyester factory减产 sentiment. Cost support is limited, but low processing fees provide some support. PTA is expected to oscillate between 4600 - 4800 in the short term, with strong support at the lower end. A 9 - 1 spread short position is recommended [29]. - Ethylene Glycol: Despite polyester减产 expectations, supply is expected to contract due to domestic and overseas device maintenance. Port inventory is decreasing, and de - stocking may accelerate in June. It is recommended to wait and see on single - side trades and attempt a 9 - 1 spread long position [29]. - Short - fiber: Processing fees are under pressure, and some factories plan to reduce production. Raw material PTA supply - demand is weakening. Short - fiber processing fees may recover, and the absolute price will follow raw materials. Attention should be paid to factory production cuts. The strategy is similar to PTA for single - side trades, and processing fees can be widened at low levels [29]. - Bottle - grade PET: Supply is expected to increase, but demand from the downstream soft - drink industry will rise during the peak consumption season. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The absolute price will follow raw materials, and attention should be paid to device operation under low processing fees. The strategy is similar to PTA for single - side trades, and processing fees are expected to range between 350 - 550 yuan/ton, with opportunities to widen at the lower end [29]. Methanol - Fundamentally, inland methanol has a downward valuation pressure. After the spring maintenance, production has increased, and downstream profits are differentiated. The port has entered a inventory - accumulation period, with May imports expected to reach 110 million tons. Iranian supply increments and positive import profits strengthen arrival expectations. MTO low - operation restricts demand, and the 09 contract is under pressure. It is recommended to short the MA09 contract on rallies, as the mid - to long - term supply - demand contradiction remains unresolved, and the rebound space is limited under inventory - accumulation expectations [38][40]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent crude rose to $65.31/barrel, WTI to $62.31/barrel, and SC to 457.40 yuan/barrel. Some spreads, such as Brent M1 - M3 and WTI M1 - M3, also increased [2]. - **Product Oil**: Prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil increased slightly. Some spreads, like RBOB M1 - M3 and ULSD M1 - M3, decreased [2]. - **Cracking Spreads**: Cracking spreads of some refined products, such as US gasoline and Singapore gasoline, decreased [2]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **PVC**: Spot and futures prices of PVC decreased. Some spreads, like V2505 - 2509, also changed. Overseas quotes were stable, and export profits increased significantly [6][7]. - **Caustic Soda**: Domestic prices were stable, overseas quotes increased, and export profits turned positive [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Caustic soda industry and some downstream industries'开工 rates increased, while PVC开工 rates decreased slightly. Inventories of both products decreased [6][7]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: PE and PP futures and spot prices decreased. Some spreads, such as L2505 - 2509 and PP2505 - 2509, changed [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: PE device开工 rate decreased, PP device and powder开工 rates increased slightly, and downstream weighted开工 rates increased. PE and PP enterprise inventories decreased [11][12]. Styrene - **Upstream Prices**: Prices of Brent crude, CFR Japan naphtha, and some other upstream products changed. Pure benzene prices decreased [15]. - **Styrene Prices**: Styrene spot and futures prices decreased, the basis increased, and the spread decreased [16]. - **Overseas Quotes and Profits**: Overseas quotes decreased slightly, and import profits increased significantly [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic pure benzene综合开工率 increased, styrene开工率 decreased, and some downstream products'开工 rates changed. Inventories of pure benzene and styrene increased [18]. Urea - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Futures prices decreased slightly, and some spot prices increased. Some spreads and basis values changed [21][25]. - **Supply and Demand**: Daily and weekly production of urea increased, factory inventory increased, and port inventory remained stable [26]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: Prices of Brent crude, CFR Japan naphtha, and other upstream products changed. PX prices decreased [29]. - **Polyester Product Prices**: Prices of POY, FDY, and other polyester products were stable or decreased slightly. Cash flows of some products changed [29]. - **Supply and Demand**: PTA开工率 increased, MEG综合开工率 decreased, and polyester综合开工率 decreased slightly [29]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures prices of methanol decreased, and some spreads and basis values changed. Spot prices in different regions also changed [38]. - **Supply and Demand**: Enterprise and port inventories of methanol increased, upstream and some downstream开工 rates changed [38].

行业 聚烯烃日报 日期 2025 年 5 月 29 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall oil price will continue to fluctuate weakly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the latest developments of the OPEC meeting [1]. - The fuel oil market will fluctuate. The Asian high - sulfur market will remain firm in the short - term, but the demand for high - sulfur raw materials from refineries is still suppressed. The previous positions of the LU - FU spread can be gradually closed for profit [3]. - The asphalt market will fluctuate. The upward space of asphalt is limited, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation. A strategy of shorting the far - month cracking spread can be considered [3][5]. - The polyester market will fluctuate. The PX price and PXN have support at the bottom, and attention should be paid to the supply pressure relief brought by the increase in PX restart. The short - term PTA basis is strongly volatile, and the ethylene glycol price can be considered to be in a strong - oscillating trend [5][7]. - The rubber market will fluctuate. The rubber price shows a weakly - oscillating trend, and the butadiene rubber price is under pressure [7]. - The methanol market will fluctuate. The methanol price is expected to maintain an oscillating trend [8]. - The polyolefin market will fluctuate. The polyolefin is expected to maintain an oscillating trend, but there is still pressure on the valuation [8]. - The PVC market will fluctuate weakly. As the devices gradually resume production, the PVC price is expected to fluctuate weakly [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, the oil price center declined. OPEC + may agree to further accelerate oil production increases. The US - Iran nuclear negotiation has no obvious progress, and the market's concern about supply has eased. The short - term oil price will continue to fluctuate weakly [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contracts showed different trends. The Singapore marine fuel sales in April had a certain change. In May, the sales are expected to rise steadily. The Asian high - sulfur market is strong in the short - term, but the refinery's demand for high - sulfur raw materials is restricted [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract rose slightly. The domestic asphalt production in June is expected to decline slightly month - on - month and increase year - on - year. The short - term supply pressure of refineries is limited, but the demand may be lower than expected [3]. - **Polyester**: On Tuesday, the polyester - related contracts had different price changes. Multiple PX devices have plans for load increase or restart. The polyester start - up rate is high, and the PX price and PXN have support at the bottom [5]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the rubber - related contracts rose. The Sino - Thai zero - tariff negotiation has not reached a final result, the supply - side raw material price has fallen, and the butadiene rubber price is under pressure [7]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the methanol - related prices are given. The domestic methanol supply has decreased due to increased device maintenance, but it is still at a high level in the past 5 years. The methanol price is expected to oscillate [8]. - **Polyolefin**: On Tuesday, the polyolefin - related prices and profits are provided. The upstream maintenance is high, the supply pressure is not large, and the downstream inventory is decreasing. The polyolefin is expected to oscillate [8]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Tuesday, the PVC market prices in different regions decreased. The supply is expected to increase as the maintenance devices resume, and the demand is relatively stable. The PVC price is expected to fluctuate weakly [9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes of various energy - chemical varieties on May 27 and May 26, 2025, as well as the historical data of basis rate changes and other information [10]. 3.3 Market News - A preliminary survey shows that the US crude oil, distillate, and gasoline inventories may increase last week [12]. - Norway's oil and gas industry investment will reach a record high this year, with an estimated total investment of $26.6 billion, a 6% increase from the previous quarter's forecast [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [14][15][18] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [31][36][43] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical varieties, including fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [46][48][54] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It presents the spread charts of different varieties of energy - chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - low sulfur, etc. [61][63][65] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production profit charts of some energy - chemical products, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, etc. [70]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rose slightly, but the market lacks strong drivers. The main logic is the dynamic game between OPEC+ production - increase expectations and Russia - sanction risks. - In the short - term, observe opportunities to short on rebounds. WTI is expected to fluctuate in the range of [59, 69], Brent in [61, 71], and SC in [440, 500]. In the medium - to - long - term, adopt a band - trading strategy. [2] Methanol - The inland methanol market has downward valuation pressure. After the spring maintenance, production has recovered, and downstream profits are divided. The port has entered a inventory - accumulation period. - Suggest to short MA09 contract on rallies. [5] LLDPE and PP - Spot prices continue to fall, and overall trading is weak. LLDPE has inventory - reduction expectations before early June, while PP will face increasing supply pressure after late May. - Short PP on rallies; the LP spread is expected to widen. [9] Urea - The urea market is expected to fluctuate between 1800 - 1900 yuan/ton around the Dragon Boat Festival. Pay attention to signals such as wheat - harvest progress in northern Anhui, port pre - collection scale, and the operating rate of Shanxi's fixed - bed plants. [19] Styrene - The pure benzene market price is weak, but there is an expected turnaround as styrene plants resume operation. - The styrene port inventory has started to accumulate, and the 3S products have limited driving force. Adopt a short - selling strategy for near - month contracts. [30] Polyester Industry - **PX**: Supply is increasing, but short - term support is strong. Consider a long - position around 6600 and a short - spread between PX9 - 1. - **PTA**: Supply - demand is weakening, but support is strong at low processing fees. Pay attention to polyester production cuts. Consider a long - position around 4600 and a short - spread between TA9 - 1. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is expected to contract, and inventory is decreasing. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading and a long - spread strategy for EG9 - 1. - **Short - fiber**: Processing fees may recover. Follow PTA's single - side strategy and expand the processing - fee spread. - **Bottle - chip**: Supply and demand are both increasing. Follow PTA's single - side strategy and expand the processing - fee spread in the 350 - 550 yuan/ton range. [34] Chlor - alkali Industry - **Caustic Soda**: Short - term supply pressure is limited, and demand from the alumina industry is expected to increase. However, there are risks from non - aluminum demand and high valuations. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading and a long - spread strategy for 6 - 9 contracts. - **PVC**: The market is weak due to poor sentiment. Long - term contradictions are prominent, but short - term supply pressure is limited. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading and a short - selling strategy for the 09 contract above 5100. [39][40] 3. Summary by Catalog Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent decreased by 0.65 to 64.09 dollars/barrel (-1.00%); WTI increased by 0.35 to 61.24 dollars/barrel (0.57%); SC decreased by 3.90 to 453.50 yuan/barrel (-0.85%). [2] - **Product Prices and Spreads**: NYM RBOB increased by 0.40 to 207.55 cents/gallon (0.19%); NYM ULSD increased by 0.50 to 208.44 cents/gallon (0.24%); ICE Gasoil decreased by 3.75 to 606.00 dollars/ton (-0.62%). [2] - **Product Crack Spreads**: Most crack spreads showed small changes, with some increasing and some decreasing. [2] Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2505 decreased by 64 to 2229 yuan/ton (-2.79%); the MA2505 - 2509 spread decreased by 48 to 21 yuan/ton (-69.57%). - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 0.2 to 33.401% (-0.52%); port inventory increased by 0.6 to 49.0 million tons (1.34%). - **Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 1.0 to 74.51% (-1.31%); the downstream external - procurement MTO device operating rate increased by 7.9 to 83.54% (10.39%). [5] LLDPE and PP - **Prices and Spreads**: L2505 decreased by 73 to 6986 yuan/ton (-1.03%); PP2509 decreased by 33 to 6896 yuan/ton (-0.48%). - **Operating Rates**: PE device operating rate decreased by 1.43 to 78.0% (-1.80%); PP device operating rate increased by 0.28 to 76.8% (0.4%). - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory decreased by 2.94 to 49.8 million tons (-5.57%); PP enterprise inventory decreased by 1.12 to 59.3 million tons (-1.85%). [9] Urea - **Futures Prices**: 01, 05, and 09 contracts all showed slight decreases. - **Raw Material and Production Costs**: Most raw material prices were stable, with synthetic ammonia decreasing by 50 to 2120 yuan/ton (-2.30%). - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily production increased by 0.30 to 20.48 million tons (1.49%); factory inventory increased by 10.02 to 91.74 million tons (12.26%). [14][17][19] Styrene - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude oil (July) decreased by 0.6 to 64.1 dollars/barrel (-1.0%); CFR Japan naphtha increased by 1.0 to 567.0 dollars/ton (0.2%). - **Spot and Futures Prices**: Styrene's East - China spot price increased by 75 to 7900 yuan/ton (1.0%); EB2506 decreased by 28 to 7313 yuan/ton (-0.4%). - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Pure benzene port inventory increased by 0.5 to 12.8 million tons (4.1%); styrene port inventory decreased by 1.8 to 7.5 million tons (-19.0%). [27][28][30] Polyester Industry - **Raw Material Prices**: Brent crude oil (July) decreased by 0.65 to 64.09 dollars/barrel (-1.0%); CFR Japan naphtha increased by 1.0 to 567.0 dollars/ton (0.2%). - **Product Prices and Cash Flows**: POY150/48 price remained at 6990 yuan/ton; polyester bottle - chip price decreased by 81 to 5941 yuan/ton (-1.3%). - **Operating Rates**: Asian PX operating rate increased by 1.9 to 69.4% (2.8%); polyester comprehensive operating rate increased by 1.1 to 95.0% (1.2%). [34] Chlor - alkali Industry - **Spot and Futures Prices**: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda (converted to 100%) increased by 62.5 to 2750 yuan/ton (2.3%); East - China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price decreased by 60 to 4700 yuan/ton (-1.3%). - **Supply and Demand**: Caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 1.1 to 86.9% (1.3%); PVC total operating rate decreased by 0.9 to 73.1% (-1.2%). - **Inventory**: Liquid caustic soda East - China factory inventory decreased by 0.4 to 19.1 million tons (-1.9%); PVC total social inventory decreased by 2.0 to 37.8 million tons (-4.9%). [39][40]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The energy - chemical industry includes energy, polyolefins, polyesters, alkali chemicals, etc. It is recommended to construct option portfolio strategies mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview of Underlying Futures - The latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes of various energy - chemical futures are presented, such as the latest price of crude oil SC2507 is 456, down 1 (-0.11%), with a trading volume of 15.70 million lots and an open interest of 3.13 million lots [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open interest PCR of various energy - chemical options are provided, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market respectively. For example, the volume PCR of crude oil options is 0.97, down 0.09, and the open interest PCR is 0.86, up 0.07 [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of various energy - chemical options are analyzed from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options. For example, the pressure level of crude oil is 570 and the support level is 400 [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of various energy - chemical options is presented, including at - the - money implied volatility and weighted implied volatility. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil is 33.145%, and the weighted implied volatility is 36.56%, up 0.10% [6]. 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations 3.5.1 Energy - related Options - **Crude Oil**: Fundamentally, OPEC+ plans to increase supply, but the actual increase is limited, and US supply rebounds with oil prices. The market shows a short - term upward and then downward trend. Option factors indicate high implied volatility and weakening short - term power. Strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7]. - **LPG**: Fundamentally, the high inventory may ease. The market is in a weak short - term trend. Option factors show that the implied volatility fluctuates around the historical average, and the short - term power is still weak. Strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. 3.5.2 Alcohol - related Options - **Methanol**: Fundamentally, port and enterprise inventories increase, and orders decrease. The market is in a weak downward trend. Option factors show that the implied volatility fluctuates around the historical average, and there is certain support below. Strategies include constructing a bear spread of put options for direction, a neutral call + put option combination for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Fundamentally, port inventory is decreasing. The market shows a short - term upward and then downward trend. Option factors indicate high implied volatility and a strong short - term shock. Strategies include constructing a short - volatility strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. 3.5.3 Polyolefin - related Options - **Polypropylene**: Fundamentally, the inventory of production enterprises and traders shows different trends. The market shows a short - term upward and then downward trend. Option factors show that the implied volatility fluctuates above the historical average, and the short - term power is weakening. Strategies include a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. 3.5.4 Rubber - related Options - **Rubber**: Fundamentally, the social inventory decreases. The market shows a short - term upward and then downward trend. Option factors show that the implied volatility fluctuates around the average, and the short - term power is weak. Strategies include constructing a bear spread of put options for direction, and a short - biased call + put option combination for volatility [11]. 3.5.5 Polyester - related Options - **PTA**: Fundamentally, the polyester load decreases, and the inventory and profit of different products vary. The market is in a long - term upward and high - level shock trend. Option factors show that the implied volatility is high, and the short - term power is strengthening. Strategies include constructing a long - biased call + put option combination for volatility [12]. 3.5.6 Alkali - related Options - **Caustic Soda**: Fundamentally, downstream replenishment supports the market, but the sustainability is uncertain. The market shows a short - term shock trend. Option factors show that the implied volatility is decreasing, and the short - term power is weak. Strategies include constructing a short - biased wide - straddle option combination for volatility, and a covered call strategy for spot hedging [13]. - **Soda Ash**: Fundamentally, production decreases and inventory increases. The market is in a weak downward trend. Option factors show that the implied volatility is rising, and the short - term power is weak. Strategies include constructing a bear spread of put options for direction, a neutral call + put option combination for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13]. 3.5.7 Urea - related Options - Fundamentally, the inventory increases, and the market sentiment cools down. The market shows a short - term upward and then downward trend. Option factors show that the implied volatility is decreasing, and the short - term long - term power is strong. Strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14].