Report Summary 1. Market Overview - Domestic commodity futures markets closed mostly lower, with non-metallic building materials leading the decline [1] 2. Asset Performance 2.1 Equity Index Futures - CSI 300 futures: Current price 4507.2, daily decline of 1.21%, weekly decline of 1.85%, monthly decline of 2.40%, quarterly decline of 2.40%, and annual increase of 14.95% [2] - SSE 50 futures: Current price 2958.4, daily decline of 0.11%, weekly decline of 0.58%, monthly decline of 1.02%, quarterly decline of 1.02%, and annual increase of 10.47% [2] - CSI 500 futures: Current price 7010, daily decline of 3.06%, weekly decline of 3.52%, monthly decline of 3.85%, quarterly decline of 3.85%, and annual increase of 23.13% [2] - CSI 1000 futures: Current price 7145.8, daily decline of 2.19%, weekly decline of 2.65%, monthly decline of 3.52%, quarterly decline of 3.52%, and annual increase of 22.18% [2] 2.2 Bond Futures - 2-year treasury bond futures: Current price 102.38, daily increase of 0.01%, weekly increase of 0.03%, monthly increase of 0.01%, quarterly increase of 0.01%, and annual decline of 0.57% [2] - 5-year treasury bond futures: Current price 105.78, daily increase of 0.09%, weekly increase of 0.12%, monthly increase of 0.14%, quarterly increase of 0.14%, and annual decline of 0.72% [2] - 10-year treasury bond futures: Current price 108.17, daily increase of 0.10%, weekly increase of 0.18%, monthly increase of 0.30%, quarterly increase of 0.30%, and annual decline of 0.69% [2] - 30-year treasury bond futures: Current price 114.76, daily increase of 0.28%, weekly increase of 0.69%, monthly increase of 0.76%, quarterly increase of 0.76%, and annual decline of 3.43% [2] 2.3 Foreign Exchange - US Dollar Index: Current price 99.26, daily unchanged, weekly increase of 0.44%, monthly increase of 1.47%, quarterly increase of 1.47%, and annual decline of 8.50% [2] - EUR/USD: Current price 1.157, daily unchanged, weekly decline of 53 pips, monthly decline of 164 pips, quarterly decline of 164 pips, and annual increase of 1217 pips [2] - USD/JPY: Current price 152.31, daily unchanged, weekly increase of 0.76%, monthly increase of 2.96%, quarterly increase of 2.96%, and annual decline of 3.11% [2] - USD mid-price: Current price 7.1021, daily increase of 14 pips, weekly decline of 27 pips, monthly decline of 34 pips, quarterly decline of 34 pips, and annual decline of 863 pips [2] 2.4 Interest Rates - 7-day interbank pledged repo rate: Current rate 1.46%, daily unchanged, weekly increase of 9 bp, monthly increase of 1 bp, quarterly increase of 1 bp, and annual decline of 29 bp [2] - 10Y Chinese treasury bond yield: Current rate 1.84%, daily increase of 1.8 bp, weekly decline of 0.8 bp, monthly decline of 2.2 bp, quarterly decline of 2.2 bp, and annual increase of 0.2 bp [2] - 10Y US treasury bond yield: Current rate 4.05%, daily decline of 9 bp, weekly unchanged, monthly increase of 0.01 bp, quarterly decline of 11 bp, and annual decline of 50 bp [2] - US 10Y-2Y yield spread: Current spread 0.53%, daily decline of 1 bp, quarterly increase of 0.03 bp, quarterly decline of 3 bp, and annual increase of 20 bp [2] - 10Y breakeven inflation rate: Current rate 2.3%, daily decline of 4 bp, monthly unchanged, quarterly decline of 0.05 bp, quarterly decline of 6 bp, and annual decline of 1 bp [2] 2.5 Metals - Gold: Current price 938.98, daily increase of 1.23%, monthly increase of 7.39%, quarterly increase of 7.39%, and annual increase of 52.04% [2] - Silver: Current price 11533, daily increase of 0.02%, monthly increase of 5.63%, quarterly increase of 5.63%, and annual increase of 54.39% [2] - Copper: Current price 84410, daily decline of 0.83%, monthly increase of 1.56%, quarterly increase of 1.56%, and annual increase of 14.42% [2] - Aluminum: Current price 20860, daily decline of 0.12%, monthly increase of 0.87%, quarterly increase of 0.87%, and annual increase of 5.46% [2] - Alumina: Current price 2805, daily decline of 0.53%, monthly decline of 2.20%, quarterly decline of 2.20%, and annual decline of 41.53% [2] - Zinc: Current price 22220, daily decline of 0.16%, monthly increase of 1.81%, quarterly increase of 1.81%, and annual decline of 12.73% [2] - Lead: Current price 120830, daily decline of 0.48%, monthly decline of 0.06%, quarterly decline of 0.06%, and annual decline of 3.14% [2] - Nickel: Current price 280430, daily decline of 0.60%, monthly increase of 1.95%, quarterly increase of 1.95%, and annual increase of 14.53% [2] - Stainless steel: Current price 8520, daily decline of 3.24%, monthly decline of 1.39%, quarterly decline of 1.39%, and annual decline of 22.44% [2] - Tin: Current price 280430, daily decline of 0.60%, monthly increase of 1.95%, quarterly increase of 1.95%, and annual increase of 14.53% [2] - Lithium carbonate: Current price 72680, daily increase of 0.55%, monthly decline of 0.16%, quarterly decline of 0.16%, and annual decline of 5.73% [2] - Industrial silicon: Current price 8520, daily decline of 3.24%, monthly decline of 1.39%, quarterly decline of 1.39%, and annual decline of 22.44% [2] - Rebar: Current price 3061, daily decline of 0.71%, monthly decline of 0.36%, quarterly decline of 0.36%, and annual decline of 7.49% [2] - Hot-rolled coil: Current price 3241, daily decline of 0.61%, monthly decline of 0.37%, quarterly decline of 0.37%, and annual decline of 5.18% [2] - Iron ore: Current price 782, daily decline of 2.80%, monthly increase of 0.19%, quarterly increase of 0.19%, and annual increase of 0.39% [2] - Coke: Current price 1654.5, daily increase of 0.73%, monthly increase of 1.94%, quarterly increase of 1.84%, and annual decline of 8.69% [2] - Coking coal: Current price 1153.5, daily increase of 0.65%, monthly increase of 2.44%, quarterly increase of 2.44%, and annual decline of 0.60% [2] - Ferrosilicon: Current price 5378, daily decline of 0.52%, monthly decline of 2.11%, quarterly decline of 2.11%, and annual decline of 14.03% [2] - Manganese silicon: Current price 5738, daily decline of 0.14%, monthly decline of 0.35%, quarterly decline of 0.35%, and annual decline of 5.78% [2] - Glass: Current price 1138, daily decline of 3.48%, monthly decline of 5.95%, quarterly decline of 5.95%, and annual decline of 14.24% [2] - Soda ash: Current price 1234, daily decline of 1.04%, monthly decline of 1.67%, quarterly decline of 1.67%, and annual decline of 13.89% [2] 2.6 Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: Current price 448.6, daily decline of 1.12%, monthly decline of 6.48%, quarterly decline of 6.48%, and annual decline of 19.88% [2] - Fuel oil: Current price 2700, daily decline of 1.35%, monthly decline of 2.82%, quarterly decline of 5.82%, and annual decline of 18.82% [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Current price 3203, daily decline of 0.90%, monthly decline of 6.13%, quarterly decline of 6.13%, and annual decline of 20.02% [2] - Asphalt: Current price 3290, daily decline of 0.36%, monthly decline of 3.91%, quarterly decline of 3.91%, and annual decline of 10.82% [2] - Methanol: Current price 2274, daily decline of 2.90%, monthly decline of 2.32%, quarterly decline of 2.32%, and annual decline of 15.87% [2] - PX: Current price 6338, daily decline of 1.43%, monthly decline of 3.35%, quarterly decline of 3.35%, and annual decline of 9.35% [2] - PTA: Current price 4440, daily decline of 1.55%, monthly decline of 3.35%, quarterly decline of 3.35%, and annual decline of 9.24% [2] - Urea: Current price 1597, daily decline of 0.81%, monthly decline of 4.37%, quarterly decline of 4.37%, and annual decline of 6.44% [2] - Short fiber: Current price 6060, daily decline of 1.17%, monthly decline of 2.82%, quarterly decline of 2.82%, and annual decline of 11.22% [2] - Styrene: Current price 6544, daily decline of 2.18%, monthly decline of 4.26%, quarterly decline of 4.26%, and annual decline of 19.19% [2] - Ethylene glycol: Current price 4061, daily decline of 1.22%, monthly decline of 3.47%, quarterly decline of 3.47%, and annual decline of 16.20% [2] - PP: Current price 6602, daily decline of 1.36%, monthly decline of 3.65%, quarterly decline of 3.65%, and annual decline of 11.70% [2] - PVC: Current price 4692, daily decline of 0.61%, monthly decline of 3.04%, quarterly decline of 3.04%, and annual decline of 11.30% [2] - Caustic soda: Current price 2428, daily decline of 1.46%, monthly decline of 4.07%, quarterly decline of 4.07%, and annual decline of 16.48% [2] - Rubber: Current price 14845, daily decline of 0.64%, monthly decline of 1.23%, quarterly decline of 1.23%, and annual decline of 16.69% [2] - 20 rubber: Current price 106611, daily decline of 0.42%, monthly decline of 0.91%, quarterly decline of 0.91%, and annual decline of 19.61% [2] - Pulp: Current price 4846, daily increase of 0.08%, monthly increase of 0.25%, quarterly increase of 0.25%, and annual decline of 18.47% [2] 2.7 Agriculture - Soybean meal: Current price 2902, daily decline of 1.02%, monthly decline of 0.89%, quarterly decline of 0.89%, and annual increase of 7.64% [2] - Soybean oil: Current price 8240, daily decline of 0.34%, monthly increase of 1.23%, quarterly increase of 1.23%, and annual increase of 6.85% [2] - Palm oil: Current price 9330, daily decline of 0.36%, monthly increase of 1.11%, quarterly increase of 1.11%, and annual increase of 7.64% [2] - Rapeseed oil: Current price 8664, daily decline of 0.63%, monthly decline of 0.85%, quarterly decline of 0.85%, and annual decline of 2.57% [2] - Rapeseed meal: Current price 2348, daily decline of 1.84%, monthly decline of 3.02%, quarterly decline of 3.02%, and annual decline of 2.57% [2] - Cotton: Current price 13265, daily decline of 0.26%, monthly increase of 0.38%, quarterly increase of 0.38%, and annual decline of 1.70% [2] - Sugar: Current price 5397, daily decline of 1.33%, monthly decline of 1.75%, quarterly decline of 1.75%, and annual decline of 9.46% [2] - Live pigs: Current price 11450, daily increase of 2.92%, monthly decline of 7.32%, quarterly decline of 7.32%, and annual decline of 10.55% [2] - Eggs: Current price 2852, daily increase of 1.57%, monthly decline of 6.12%, quarterly decline of 6.12%, and annual decline of 15.62% [2] - Red dates: Current price 11110, daily decline of 0.18%, monthly increase of 2.68%, quarterly increase of 2.68%, and annual increase of 20.63% [2] - Apples: Current price 8664, daily increase of 0.30%, monthly increase of 0.55%, quarterly increase of 0.55%, and annual increase of 22.37% [2] - Peanuts: Current price 7864, daily decline of 0.48%, monthly increase of 1.29%, quarterly increase of 1.29%, and annual decline of 0.81% [2] - Corn: Current price 2093, daily increase of 0.05%, monthly decline of 2.33%, quarterly decline of 2.33%, and annual decline of 6.10% [2] 3. Macro Analysis 3.1 Overseas Macro - Focus on new tariff threats from Trump and marginal changes in the US government shutdown [5] - There is a risk of further escalation of conflicts before the APEC meeting at the end of October [5] - If the US government shutdown exceeds 30 days, it will weaken the "bad news is good news" logic and push up the recession risk [5] 3.2 Domestic Macro - China will gradually enter the period of focusing on the "15th Five-Year Plan" and tracking incremental policies [5] - The 4th Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee will be held from October

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Powell's latest remarks suggest that the Fed needs to cut interest rates again and stop balance - sheet reduction, indicating a non - changing trend of monetary policy easing and a weakening US dollar index [14]. - On October 14, the stock market closed lower again with significant trading volume. Due to the lag and long - tail effects of the tariff war and more upcoming negotiations, the situation needs to be observed [2]. - Sino - US trade relations are an incremental positive for the bond market. If the equity market is confirmed to be in high - level consolidation, the bond market will see a slight upward trend [3]. - Steel prices continue to be weak, with iron ore price declines bringing cost - side risks. There is still inventory pressure on finished products, and caution is advised regarding steel prices [4]. - In the short term, lithium prices may show a combination of strong reality and weak expectations, with narrow - range fluctuations. It is advisable to focus on short - selling opportunities on price rallies [5]. - The IEA monthly report slightly lowers the global demand growth forecast, and concerns about oversupply have pushed oil prices down [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump announced the end of the war, but the path to peace in the Middle East remains fragile. The US government shutdown has entered its 14th day, and the White House vows to continue layoffs [12][13]. - Powell suggests that the Fed may cut interest rates by 25 basis points later this month and stop balance - sheet reduction in the coming months. This indicates a non - changing trend of monetary policy easing and a weakening US dollar index [14]. - Investment advice: Expect the US dollar index to weaken [15]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The National Development and Reform Commission issued a management method to support energy - saving and carbon - reduction renovations in key industries [16]. - The Premier of the State Council held an economic situation symposium. On October 14, the stock market closed lower with significant volume. Due to the tariff war uncertainties and more upcoming negotiations, the situation needs to be observed [17][18]. - Investment advice: Allocate evenly among stock indices [19]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Powell leaves the door open for interest rate cuts and may stop balance - sheet reduction in the future. Fed Governor Bowman expects two more interest rate cuts by the end of the year [20][21]. - Goldman Sachs' Q3 revenue reached a record high for the same period. Fed officials' dovish remarks support market sentiment, and the 10 - month interest rate meeting is expected to cut rates [22]. - Investment advice: Given the lingering tariff threat, pay attention to negotiation progress and look for opportunities to enter the market on dips [23]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 600 billion yuan of 6 - month (182 - day) outright reverse repurchase operations on October 15 and 91 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on October 14 [24][25]. - Sino - US trade relations are positive for the bond market. However, factors such as the stock market adjustment rhythm, policy expectations, and the fund fee rate new regulations may affect the bond market. - Investment advice: Hold existing long positions, be cautious about adding new long positions. There will be opportunities to buy on dips after the fund fee rate new regulations are implemented [26]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in Hebei is stable. Coal mine production is stable, and high iron - water production supports coking coal demand. However, the steel market still faces supply - demand pressure, and short - term steel prices may be under pressure [27]. - Investment advice: In the short term, the coking coal fundamentals are weak. Pay attention to future demand [28]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - ANEC predicts that Brazil's soybean exports in October will be 731 million tons. The estimated soybean crushing volume of NOPA members in September is 186.34 million bushels. CONAB predicts an increase in Brazil's soybean production and exports in the 25/26 season [29][30][31]. - Investment advice: The domestic and international futures prices are expected to remain weak and volatile. Pay attention to Brazilian weather, Sino - US relations, and whether the M2601 contract can find support at 2900 [31]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - In Xinjiang, the purchase price of cottonseed in the northern region has stabilized, and the "fixed - price" sales model is becoming more popular. The global textile industry is facing challenges, and China's textile and clothing exports from January to September decreased by 0.3% year - on - year [32][33][34]. - Investment advice: In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be weak and volatile. Pay attention to new cotton purchases, Sino - US relations, and macro - level dynamics [35]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia is considering regulating palm oil exports to meet B50 demand, which may reduce global edible oil supply [36]. - Investment advice: The B50 policy in Indonesia will cause supply shortages. Unless the policy fails, it is advisable to buy on dips [37]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The world steel demand in 2025 is expected to be about 1.75 billion tons, and it will rebound by 1.3% in 2026. In early October, the daily output of crude steel by key steel enterprises was 2.032 million tons, and the inventory increased [38][39]. - Investment advice: In the short term, adopt a weak - volatility mindset, short on price rebounds, or wait for price drops [41]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The price of red dates in the Guangzhou Ruyifang market is stable. The futures price of the main contract slightly declined. The Xinjiang production area is in the drying - on - the - tree period, and the demand in distribution areas is stable [42][43]. - Investment advice: Before the main trading logic becomes clear, it is advisable to wait and see. Pay attention to price negotiations and purchase progress in the production area [43]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - On October 14, 2025, the theoretical profits of corn starch enterprises in Heilongjiang, Jilin, Hebei, and Shandong were 12 yuan/ton, 56 yuan/ton, 69 yuan/ton, and 57 yuan/ton respectively, with an increase in losses [44]. - Investment advice: Continue to look for opportunities to narrow the spot rice - flour price spread in the long - term. If the deterioration of the real - world fundamentals is slow, the 11 - contract rice - flour price spread may still have room for upward correction [44]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - In September, brown coal imports were 46 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.3%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative coal imports decreased by 11.1% year - on - year [45][46]. - Investment advice: Due to supply reduction, strong thermal power demand, and winter storage, steam coal prices are unlikely to fall significantly in the short term, and there is strong support around 700 yuan/ton [46]. 3.2.9 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Rio Tinto's Pilbara iron ore production in Q3 2025 was 84.1 million tons. Iron ore prices may fluctuate narrowly between 100 - 110 US dollars due to insufficient finished - product demand and stable iron - water production [47]. - Investment advice: Iron ore is expected to fluctuate narrowly between 100 - 110 US dollars. Maintain a volatility - market mindset [47]. 3.2.10 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Domestic corn prices are weak. The futures price of the main contract has fallen below 2100 and then rebounded. The basis is expected to weaken, and the futures price may gradually outperform the spot price [48]. - Investment advice: Hold existing short positions and closely monitor market sentiment. Do not enter long positions too early for a rebound [49]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - South Korea's OCI acquires a Vietnamese silicon wafer factory. The spot price of polysilicon is stable, and the production in October is expected to increase. The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells are stable, and the component price may fluctuate [50][51][52]. - Investment advice: The progress of platform companies may cause market fluctuations. It is advisable to consider going long on the PS2512 contract when it is at a discount to the spot. Look for reverse - arbitrage opportunities between the PS2511 - PS2512 contracts at around - 2000 yuan/ton [53]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Dongyue Silicon Materials' net profit in the first three quarters of 2025 is expected to decline significantly. The start - up of northern silicon plants is increasing, while southern plants may reduce production. There may be seasonal inventory accumulation and depletion, but the supply - demand contradiction is not obvious [54]. - Investment advice: It is more advisable to go long on industrial silicon at low prices, but be cautious about chasing up [55]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - On October 13, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of 45.35 US dollars/ton. The Shanghai lead futures price fluctuated downward, and the LME lead price was weak. The domestic lead - ingot import window opened briefly, and the social inventory decreased [56]. - Investment advice: For single - side trading, look for opportunities to buy on dips and beware of delivery risks. For arbitrage, look for positive - arbitrage opportunities in the month - spread and short - term internal - external reverse - arbitrage opportunities [56]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On October 13, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a premium of 201.6 US dollars/ton. The zinc - ingot export window has opened, and the LME inventory has increased. The domestic demand improvement is limited [57][58]. - Investment advice: For single - side trading, it is advisable to wait and see. For arbitrage, look for medium - term positive - arbitrage opportunities and maintain a positive - arbitrage mindset for internal - external trading, and take profits on positive - arbitrage positions in batches on dips [58]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - In September, the combined production of power and other batteries in China increased by 35.4% year - on - year. Currently, the lithium carbonate market is in the peak - season inventory - depletion phase, but the supply is expected to remain high, and the demand may face a decline [59]. - Investment advice: In the short term, lithium prices may fluctuate narrowly. It is advisable to focus on short - selling opportunities on price rallies and look for reverse - arbitrage opportunities between the LC2511 - 2512 contracts [59]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - A fire occurred at an HPAL project in Indonesia, but it does not affect the project progress. Short - term macro factors are volatile. The nickel ore price is expected to rise in Q4, and the refined nickel may face inventory accumulation pressure in Q4 [60][61]. - Investment advice: Consider going long on nickel after macro risks stabilize [61]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The IEA monthly report slightly lowers the global demand growth forecast, and concerns about oversupply have pushed oil prices down [6]. - Investment advice: Oil prices are expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [63]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - On October 14, the CEA closing price was 55.82 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.33% from the previous day. The carbon market trading volume has not increased significantly, and the price is under pressure [63]. - Investment advice: The CEA price is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [64]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - On October 14, the price of high - concentration caustic soda in Shandong decreased. The supply has increased, and the demand is average [66]. - Investment advice: Due to the weakening of the Shandong spot price and the poor performance of the macro - economy and coal market, be cautious about bottom - fishing [66]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - On October 14, the domestic PVC powder market price decreased, and the trading volume was weak. The supply pressure is increasing due to new capacity releases, and the demand is pessimistic due to anti - dumping measures [67][68]. - Investment advice: The PVC fundamentals are weak, and the inventory is accumulating. The price is expected to remain weak and volatile in the short term, with limited room for further decline [68]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle - chip factory export prices continue to decline. Polyester raw material prices have fallen, and bottle - chip factories have lowered their prices. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, but it may accumulate in Q4 [69][71]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the resumption of factory production and new capacity releases. The supply - demand contradiction may increase in Q4, putting pressure on processing fees [71]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - On October 14, the soda ash market in Shahe was volatile. The futures price decreased due to the overall risk - appetite decline in the commodity market. The new capacity of Yuangxing's Phase II project is delayed, but the supply is high, and the demand is average [72]. - Investment advice: In the medium - term, maintain a short - selling mindset on price rallies and pay attention to new capacity releases [72]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - On October 14, the float glass price in the Shahe market decreased. The glass futures price continued to fall, mainly due to the delay in the coal - to - gas conversion of several coal - fired production lines in Shahe [73]. - Investment advice: The glass market shows a lack of peak - season strength. Due to supply - side uncertainties, single - side trading is risky. It is recommended to look for arbitrage opportunities by going long on glass and short on soda ash when the price spread widens [74]. 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - In September 2025, China's fertilizer imports were 122,400 tons, and exports were 5.438 million tons. From January to September, imports decreased by 6.7% year - on - year, and exports increased by 45.4% year - on - year [75]. - Investment advice: Due to weather - related demand delays, pay attention to whether the demand in Northeast China can be released. When the 2601 contract falls below 1600 yuan/ton, gradually close out short - selling positions. Reserve entities are advised to continue with a dispersed purchasing strategy [77].

Group 1 - The 14th China International Patent Technology and Product Trading Fair was held in Dalian from October 13 to 15, showcasing high standards and professionalism in patent technology and product transactions [1] - The theme of this year's fair is "Patent Transformation and Application Empowering Innovative Development," focusing on innovative achievements in various industries such as energy, high-end manufacturing, modern marine, and life health [2] - A total of 317 exhibitors participated from 14 countries and regions, with the fair aiming to become an important platform for promoting the transformation and application of intellectual property [2] Group 2 - The 25th China Patent Gold Award and Design Gold Award were presented during the fair, with 30 patents receiving the Gold Award, 60 receiving the Silver Award, and 607 receiving the Excellent Award [4] - Among the awarded invention patents, 33% were from strategic emerging industries, and 90.3% were from intellectual property-intensive industries [4] - The cumulative sales revenue of awarded patent products exceeded 580 billion yuan [4]

Core Insights - The "2025 Anhui Province Comprehensive Competitiveness Report" reveals the top 100 towns in Anhui, with Xinhang Town in Guangde City ranking first [1] - The report highlights the transformation of Anhui from a traditional agricultural province to an emerging industrial province, creating significant opportunities for town economic development [4][5] Summary by Sections Rankings and Characteristics - The top 10 towns in the 2025 Anhui Province Comprehensive Competitiveness list include Xinhang Town, Tianying Town, and Taohua Town, among others [2] - The top 100 towns represent only 8.1% of the total number of towns in Anhui but account for 17.6% of the province's permanent population and contribute approximately half of the general public budget revenue [4] Economic Development - The towns have a total of 3,628 industrial enterprises above designated size, with an industrial output value of 6,731 billion [4] - The report indicates that 85 towns have a general public budget revenue exceeding 100 million, and 12 towns surpass the average level of 5.42 billion for the Central China region [4] Regional Distribution - The majority of the top towns are concentrated in the "One Circle One Belt" area, with 44 towns in the Hefei metropolitan area, indicating a strong urban-rural integration [3] - The report notes a clear gradient in town rankings, with Hefei and Wuhu leading the first tier, while other cities like Chuzhou and Ma'anshan form the second tier [3] Industrial Focus and Development Patterns - Over 60% of the top towns rely on industrial economies, integrating deeply into the provincial industrial chain [4] - Collaborative development is evident, with towns like Xiapai and Taohua aligning with Hefei's leading industries, showcasing a "leading enterprise + supporting" model [4] Challenges and Future Directions - The report identifies structural challenges such as small economic scale and uneven regional development, emphasizing the need for enhancing the competitiveness of towns [5] - Future development strategies should focus on expanding strong towns and improving their demonstration and leading roles in the economy [5]

1. Report Information - Report Name: MEG Daily Report [1] - Date: October 14, 2025 [2] 2. Investment Rating - Not provided 3. Core View - Due to insufficient cost support and a weak supply - demand structure, ethylene glycol (MEG) is expected to decline in a volatile manner [7] 4. Section Summaries 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures market: EG2601 closed at 4,111 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan, with a position of 341,973 contracts, a decrease of 7,162 contracts; EG2605 closed at 4,185 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan, with a position of 7,954 contracts, an increase of 896 contracts. On the 13th, the main contract of ethylene glycol futures opened at 4,106 yuan, with a high of 4,132 yuan, a low of 4,068 yuan, a settlement price of 4,112 yuan, and a total volume of 146,257 contracts [7] 4.2 Industry News - Oil prices: Israel - Hamas cease - fire reduced geopolitical risk premiums, and Trump's tweet intensified trade tensions. WTI crude oil futures for November 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled at $58.9 per barrel, down $2.61 or 4.24% from the previous trading day; Brent crude oil futures for December 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange settled at $62.73 per barrel, down $2.49 or 3.82% from the previous trading day [8] - MEG market: The spot negotiation price in Zhangjiagang MEG market this week was 4,180 - 4,181 yuan/ton, up 115.5 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The negotiation prices for late October and late November were 4,181 - 4,183 yuan/ton and 4,179 - 4,181 yuan/ton respectively. The current spot basis had a premium of 69 - 70 yuan/ton over EG2601, the late - October basis had a premium of 70 - 72 yuan/ton over EG2601, and the late - November basis had a premium of 68 - 70 yuan/ton over EG2601 [8] - Industry operating rate: The operating rate of the ethylene glycol industry was 65.33%, up 0.41 percentage points from the previous period. The operating rate of ethylene - based ethylene glycol was 69.09%, up 0.68 percentage points from the previous period, and the operating rate of syngas - based ethylene glycol remained flat at 59.65% [8] 4.3 Data Overview - Multiple data charts were provided, including MEG futures prices, spot - futures price differences, international crude oil futures prices, raw material price indices, PTA - MEG price differences, MEG prices, MEG downstream product prices, and MEG downstream product inventories, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][15][16]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock market has uncertainties in the short - term due to concerns about Sino - US tariffs, but the long - term strategy is to buy on dips as policy support for the capital market remains unchanged [4]. - The bond market may improve in the fourth - quarter supply - demand pattern and is likely to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [6]. - Precious metals are in an accelerating upward phase in the short - term. It is recommended to hold existing long positions, and new long positions at current prices carry high risks [8]. - For non - ferrous metals, the prices of copper, aluminum, etc. may be affected by Sino - US trade relations and their own supply - demand fundamentals, with different price trends and trading suggestions [10][11][12][13]. - In the black building materials sector, steel and iron ore prices may be affected by Trump's tariff statements and their own supply - demand situations. The future trend depends on policy and demand recovery [31][33]. - In the energy - chemical sector, the prices of various products such as rubber, crude oil, and methanol are affected by macro factors, supply - demand fundamentals, and policy expectations, with different trading strategies [47][52][56]. - For agricultural products, the prices of products like hogs, eggs, and soybeans are affected by supply - demand relations, seasonal factors, and trade policies, and corresponding trading suggestions are given [76][78][80]. Summaries by Categories Macro - Financial Stock Index - **Market Information**: In September, passenger car retail sales reached a new peak. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rebounded significantly. COMEX gold futures exceeded $4100 per ounce, up 56% this year. JPMorgan will provide up to $1.5 trillion in financing for key US industries [2]. - **Strategy**: After the previous continuous rise, high - level hot sectors such as AI have shown differences. The short - term index faces uncertainties due to Sino - US tariff concerns, but the long - term strategy is to buy on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Monday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different changes. China's foreign trade data showed an increase in exports and a slight decrease in imports. Trump said the Gaza war was over. The central bank conducted a net injection of 137.8 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: The recent escalation of Sino - US trade disputes is beneficial for the bond market's repair in the short - term, but the long - term trend depends on fundamentals and institutional allocation. The bond market is expected to oscillate in the fourth quarter [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold and silver futures rose. COMEX gold and silver also had certain prices. The shortage of silver in the London spot market drove up prices, and the inventory of COMEX silver decreased [7][8]. - **Strategy**: Precious metals are in an accelerating upward phase in the short - term. It is recommended to hold existing long positions, and new long positions at current prices carry high risks [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The concern about Sino - US trade relations eased, and copper prices rebounded. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic social and bonded area inventories changed [10]. - **Strategy**: Trump's tariff threat is uncertain. The supply - demand relationship supports copper prices. If the trade situation is a short - term shock, copper prices may remain strong [11]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Market sentiment recovered, and aluminum prices rose. The inventory of domestic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased [12]. - **Strategy**: Sino - US trade relations are uncertain. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate strongly due to factors such as domestic consumption and copper price drive [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Shanghai zinc index slightly declined, and LME zinc rose. Domestic and foreign inventories and other data were provided [14][15]. - **Strategy**: After the holiday, domestic zinc production was normal. The low registered LME zinc warehouse receipts pose a structural risk. Short - term, Shanghai zinc is expected to oscillate at a low level with increased risk [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: Shanghai lead index declined, and LME lead also fell. Domestic and foreign inventories and other data were provided [17]. - **Strategy**: The lead market has some changes in supply and demand. Due to Trump's tariff statement, short - term Shanghai lead is expected to oscillate at a low level with increased risk [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices oscillated. The cost of nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron was slightly weak [18]. - **Strategy**: In the short - term, Sino - US trade friction may affect market sentiment, but the impact on nickel prices is relatively small. In the long - term, nickel prices have support. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and consider buying on dips [20]. Tin - **Market Information**: Shanghai tin futures declined. The supply of tin ore was tight, and the demand was mixed [21]. - **Strategy**: In the short - term, Sino - US trade friction may affect market sentiment, but tin prices are expected to remain high and oscillate due to supply - demand balance and seasonal demand [21]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The spot index of carbonate lithium was stable, and the futures price declined slightly [22]. - **Strategy**: Affected by macro news, carbonate lithium prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to macro environment changes and demand expectations [22]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index declined. The spot price in Shandong decreased, and the import window was close to closing [24]. - **Strategy**: The short - term ore price has support, but the alumina smelting capacity is in surplus. It is recommended to wait and see, focusing on supply - side policies and Fed policies [25]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless - steel futures price declined, and the spot price also decreased. The inventory increased after the holiday [26]. - **Strategy**: After the holiday, the inventory increased, and the terminal consumption was weak. The market is expected to trend weakly [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The AD2511 contract of cast aluminum alloy declined. The inventory decreased slightly, and the trading was light [27]. - **Strategy**: The cost - side aluminum price rebounded, but the increase in warehouse receipts puts pressure on the price [28][29]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures declined. The inventory and spot prices also changed [31]. - **Strategy**: Trump's tariff statement may impact the steel market. The demand during the National Day holiday was weak. The future trend depends on policy and demand recovery [31]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron - ore futures price rose. The spot price and basis were provided [32]. - **Strategy**: The supply of iron ore decreased seasonally, and the demand was relatively stable. The future trend depends on downstream demand and trade policies [33][34]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass futures price declined, and the inventory increased. The soda - ash futures price rose slightly, and the inventory also increased [35][36]. - **Strategy**: Glass prices are expected to oscillate narrowly, and soda - ash prices are expected to trend weakly due to supply - demand imbalance [35][36]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures declined. The spot prices and basis were provided [37]. - **Strategy**: The black - building materials sector may first decline and then rise. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the sector's trend [39][40]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The industrial - silicon futures price rose, and the polysilicon futures price declined. The supply - demand and inventory data were provided [41][44]. - **Strategy**: Industrial - silicon prices may rise in the long - term due to supply reduction and cost support. Polysilicon prices are expected to adjust technically in the short - term [43][45]. Energy - Chemical Rubber - **Market Information**: Due to the US tariff statement, global risk - asset prices declined. The rubber market has different views on supply and demand [47][48]. - **Strategy**: The rubber price has broken down in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see or operate short - term. A hedging strategy is also suggested [51]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude - oil and refined - oil futures prices declined. China's crude - oil and refined - oil inventory data changed [52]. - **Strategy**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared, oil prices should not be overly bearish in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see and test OPEC's export - support willingness [53]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices in different regions changed. The basis and 1 - 5 spread also changed [54]. - **Strategy**: The methanol market has supply - demand pressure, but the short - term downward space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [56]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices in different regions declined. The basis and 1 - 5 spread changed [57]. - **Strategy**: After the holiday, the urea market has supply - demand pressure. It is recommended to wait and see at low prices [57]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene changed. The supply - demand and inventory data were provided [58]. - **Strategy**: The BZN spread has room for upward repair. Styrene prices may stop falling due to inventory reduction [59]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC futures price declined. The cost, supply - demand, and inventory data were provided [60][61]. - **Strategy**: The PVC market has a supply - demand imbalance. It is recommended to consider short - selling opportunities in the medium - term [62]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene - glycol futures price rose. The supply - demand and inventory data were provided [63]. - **Strategy**: The ethylene - glycol market is expected to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies [64]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA futures price declined. The supply - demand, inventory, and processing - fee data were provided [65]. - **Strategy**: The PTA market has a short - term de - stocking pattern, but the processing - fee space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [67]. Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: The PX futures price declined. The supply - demand, inventory, and valuation data were provided [68]. - **Strategy**: The PX market is expected to accumulate inventory. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to terminal and PTA valuation changes [69]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE futures price declined. The supply - demand, inventory, and basis data were provided [70]. - **Strategy**: The PE price is expected to oscillate at a low level due to cost and inventory factors [71]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP futures price declined. The supply - demand, inventory, and basis data were provided [72][73]. - **Strategy**: The PP market has supply - demand pressure and high inventory. The short - term has no prominent contradiction [74]. Agricultural Products Hogs - **Market Information**: Domestic hog prices varied. Northern farmers were reluctant to sell, and secondary fattening supported prices [76]. - **Strategy**: The supply pressure is large in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to reduce short positions and consider positive spreads after the spot stabilizes [77]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable or declined. The market had supply - demand pressure [78]. - **Strategy**: After the holiday, the egg market has multiple negative factors. It is recommended to be bearish in the short - term and wait for a rebound to short - sell in the long - term [79]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: CBOT soybeans declined. Domestic soybean - meal prices rose, and the inventory decreased [80]. - **Strategy**: The domestic soybean supply pressure is large. It is recommended to sell on rallies in the medium - term and expect range - bound oscillations in the short - term [81]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Malaysian palm - oil exports increased. Domestic oil inventories changed, and prices oscillated downward [82]. - **Strategy**: Oils and fats are supported by supply - demand expectations. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and consider buying on dips in the medium - term [83]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Zhengzhou sugar futures prices declined. Brazilian sugar production data were provided [84][85]. - **Strategy**: Brazilian sugar production data are bearish. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies in the fourth quarter [86]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Zhengzhou cotton futures prices oscillated. The spot price and downstream operating - rate data were provided [87]. - **Strategy**: Due to Sino - US trade conflicts and weak fundamentals, cotton prices are expected to decline in the short - term [88].

Core Viewpoint - The event "Warm City Invitation" held in Tsinghua University aims to attract talent to Ordos, highlighting the city's need for technological and human resources to support its modern industrial system and the development of four world-class industries [1][11]. Group 1: Event Overview - The recruitment event took place on October 11, featuring speeches from key officials including Zhang Xiuling, Deputy Mayor of Ordos, and Zhang Liang, Director of the Human Resources and Social Security Bureau [1][11]. - The event included a discussion on collaboration between academia and industry, focusing on talent introduction and cooperation in technology transfer [1]. Group 2: Talent Demand and Participation - Over 20 employers, including institutions like the Beijing University Ordos Energy Research Institute and Yitai Group, offered nearly 700 job opportunities, with students actively engaging in consultations and resume submissions [13]. - A total of 184 resumes were collected on-site, with 145 initial agreements reached, including 45 PhD candidates and 98 master's candidates across various fields such as energy, chemical engineering, artificial intelligence, and aerospace [13]. Group 3: Strategic Importance - The event is a key initiative in advancing Ordos's "Talent Ordos" strategy and aims to establish a "talent-friendly city," providing a broad development platform for Tsinghua students and laying a solid foundation for future collaboration in various fields [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. However, for different asset classes, there are short - term investment suggestions: - **Equity Index**: Short - term high - level adjustment with increased volatility, short - term cautious and wait - and - see [3][4] - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term oscillation, cautious and wait - and - see [3] - **Commodity Categories**: - **Black Metals**: Short - term oscillation, cautious and wait - and - see [3] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Short - term adjustment, cautious and short - term cautiously go long [3] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Short - term oscillation, cautious and wait - and - see [3] - **Precious Metals**: Short - term high - level strong - side oscillation, cautiously go long [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Macroeconomic Situation**: Overseas, the US threatens to impose 100% tariffs on China, intensifying short - term Sino - US game. The US dollar index and RMB exchange rate weaken, global financial markets fluctuate violently, and global risk appetite significantly cools. Domestically, economic growth accelerates, but short - term Sino - US game intensifies, and domestic risk appetite cools significantly. Multiple industries' steady - growth plans are introduced, increasing policy support [3][4]. - **Market Trading Logic**: Focus on domestic incremental stimulus policies and Sino - US game. Short - term macro upward drive weakens; follow - up attention on Sino - US trade negotiation progress and domestic incremental policy implementation [3][4]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - **Macro Situation**: Overseas, Sino - US game intensifies, dollar and RMB weaken, global risk appetite cools, and precious metals strengthen. Domestically, economic growth accelerates, but Sino - US game intensifies, risk appetite cools, and multiple industries' steady - growth plans are introduced [3]. - **Asset Suggestions**: Equity index has short - term high - level adjustment, treasury bonds oscillate in the short - term, black metals oscillate, non - ferrous metals adjust, energy and chemicals oscillate, and precious metals are strong - side oscillating at high levels. All are with cautious operation suggestions [3]. 3.2 Equity Index - **Market Performance**: Domestic stock market drops significantly due to the drag of energy metals, semiconductors, and batteries. Fundamentally, economic growth accelerates, but Sino - US game intensifies, and risk appetite cools. Multiple industries' steady - growth plans are introduced. Short - term cautious and wait - and - see [4]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Steel**: Last Friday, steel futures and spot prices declined slightly, and market transactions were at a low level. After the weekend, Sino - US trade conflict escalated, and market risk - aversion increased. Fundamentally, demand is weak, inventory increases by 127000 tons, and supply is expected to remain high. The steel market may be weak in the short - term [5]. - **Iron Ore**: Last Friday, iron ore futures and spot prices rebounded slightly. Iron ore demand is strong, but due to the weakening steel market and Sino - US trade conflict, the negative feedback may come earlier. It is recommended to short at high prices next week [5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Last Friday, spot prices were flat, and futures prices declined slightly. Alloy demand is okay, but supply increases in some areas. Silicon manganese and silicon ferrosilicon futures prices are expected to oscillate in the range [6]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Not mentioned in the provided content. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: Tariff concerns resurfaced last Friday night. US economic data is mixed, and the Fed's rate - cut expectation increases. Some major copper mines have supply disruptions, but most are expected to resume production [8]. - **Aluminum**: Last Friday, Shanghai aluminum rose and then fell, following copper. During the holiday, domestic aluminum social inventory accumulated by 200000 tons, supply is rigid, and demand weakens marginally [9][10]. - **Tin**: Supply is tight globally, but demand improvement is limited, and high prices suppress consumption. Tin prices are expected to oscillate at high levels [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Production increases, inventory decreases slightly. Sino - US trade conflict and 11 - month warehouse receipt cancellation may bring pressure, and prices are expected to oscillate in the range [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Production reaches a new high, inventory increases slightly. The 2511 contract faces warehouse receipt digestion pressure, and prices are expected to oscillate in the range [11]. - **Polysilicon**: Production increases, inventory is high, and warehouse receipt quantity increases. Supply is high, demand is weak, and prices depend on the implementation of storage - purchase news [11]. 3.5 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The Gaza cease - fire agreement and US tariff statements lead to a significant drop in oil prices. OPEC+增产 will continue to put downward pressure on prices [12]. - **Asphalt**: Oil price decline drives asphalt price down. Demand in the peak season is almost over, supply pressure increases, and asphalt may oscillate weakly [13]. - **PX**: It oscillates weakly with the polyester sector. Although PTA high - level operation provides some demand support, it is likely to continue to oscillate weakly [13]. - **PTA**: Downstream demand is weak, supply remains high, and port inventory increases. Prices will continue to run weakly [13]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Port inventory rises, demand deteriorates, and supply increases. It is expected to accumulate inventory in October and run at a low level [14]. - **Short - fiber**: It adjusts with the polyester sector, and terminal orders have limited improvement. It may continue to oscillate weakly [14]. - **Methanol**: Supply growth far exceeds demand recovery, inventory increases, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [14]. - **PP**: After the holiday, supply and demand both increase, but new capacity and restarted devices bring supply pressure, and prices are expected to be under pressure [15]. - **LLDPE**: After the holiday, supply increases and demand recovers slowly. The "Golden September and Silver October" demand is less than expected, and prices will continue to oscillate weakly [15]. - **Urea**: The market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. Supply is above 190000 tons per day, and demand is weak. The short - term price is under pressure, and the subsequent trend depends on export policy [16]. 3.6 Agricultural Products - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: Sino - US trade tension intensifies, and the CBOT soybean market is under pressure. Domestic short - term soybean meal replenishment may increase, but in the fourth quarter, supply is sufficient. CBOT soybean and domestic soybean meal may be under short - term pressure. Rapeseed meal is in a situation of weak supply and demand before the import of Australian rapeseed [17]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: Rapeseed oil inventory is expected to decrease before the import of Australian rapeseed. Palm oil has some support, and soybean oil may accumulate inventory after the holiday and run weakly [17]. - **Palm Oil**: The MPOB report is bearish, with inventory rising unexpectedly. In the short - term, there is a risk of correction, but in the medium - term, it is still easy to rise and difficult to fall [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After a period of continuous rise, high - level hot sectors such as AI have recently shown divergence, with funds shifting between high - and low - valued stocks and rapid rotation. Market risk appetite has decreased. Although short - term indices face uncertainty due to Sino - US tariff concerns, in the long - run, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the mid - to long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. - In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand pattern of the bond market may improve. With the current market in a situation of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations, the bond market is expected to remain volatile. Attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect. If the stock market cools down and the allocation power gradually increases, the bond market is expected to recover [8]. - For precious metals, it is recommended to go long on dips, especially pay attention to the rising opportunities of silver prices [10]. - For most metals and non - metals, the impact of Trump's tariff threat on China is uncertain. Some metals are affected by short - term market sentiment, while in the long - run, their prices are supported by fundamentals. For example, copper and aluminum prices may rebound if the trade situation is only a short - term shock [13][15]. - For black building materials, although the new tariff statement may impact the commodity market, the overall macro - environment is gradually turning loose. The short - term weak reality is difficult to reverse, and attention should be paid to policy strength as the Fourth Plenary Session approaches [33]. - For energy chemicals, most products are affected by supply - demand fundamentals and macro - factors. Some products are recommended to wait and see, while others suggest short - term trading strategies based on market conditions [56][58]. - For agricultural products, factors such as supply - demand relationships, seasonal characteristics, and trade policies affect prices. For example, the pig price is expected to be stable in the north and decline in the south, and the soybean price is expected to fluctuate in a range [77][83]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - financial Stock Index - **Market News**: China responded to the US threat of imposing tariffs on China. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 6.1%, and most popular Chinese concept stocks declined. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to strengthen technological research on high - end computing chips, and Shanghai aims to develop emerging industries [2]. - **Strategy**: After continuous rises, high - level hot sectors have shown divergence. Sino - US tariff concerns have disturbed the market in the short - term, but the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged in the long - run, suggesting a long - on - dips strategy [4]. Treasury Bond - **Market News**: Bond prices declined on Friday. Trump announced additional tariffs on Chinese imports and export controls on software. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations and had a net withdrawal of funds [5]. - **Strategy**: The recent Sino - US trade dispute has reduced risk appetite, which is beneficial for the bond market's recovery. However, the uncertainty of tariff progress remains high. In the fourth quarter, attention should be paid to the fundamentals and institutional allocation power. The bond market is expected to remain volatile [8]. Precious Metals - **Market News**: Gold prices rose, and silver prices showed mixed performance. The uncertainty of US trade and economic policies has increased the demand for gold. The shortage of London silver spot is expected to continue [9]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on precious metals on dips, especially focus on silver. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai gold and silver are provided [10]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market News**: Trump's tariff threat led to a sharp decline in copper prices after a short - term rise. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic inventory increased [12]. - **Strategy**: The tariff threat is uncertain. Fundamentally, copper supply is expected to tighten, and if the trade situation is a short - term shock, there may be buying opportunities after the price decline [13]. Aluminum - **Market News**: The Sino - US trade situation caused aluminum prices to decline after a rise. Inventory increased slightly, and the market trading was dull [14]. - **Strategy**: If the tariff threat is short - term, market sentiment may recover. The supply - demand relationship of aluminum is expected to support the price, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range [15]. Zinc - **Market News**: Zinc prices showed a slight decline. Domestic inventory increased slightly, and the export window opened [16][17]. - **Strategy**: Domestic zinc production was normal during the holiday. The low level of registered LME zinc warrants poses a structural risk. Short - term, Shanghai zinc is expected to oscillate at a low level with increased risk volatility [18]. Lead - **Market News**: Lead prices rose slightly. LME lead inventory decreased significantly, and domestic inventory decreased [19]. - **Strategy**: Similar to zinc, short - term, Shanghai lead is expected to oscillate at a low level with increased risk volatility due to the trade situation and market sentiment [19]. Nickel - **Market News**: Nickel prices were affected by the Sino - US trade friction. The cost of nickel ore and nickel iron remained stable, and the price of MHP was high [20]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, the trade friction may reduce market risk appetite, but the impact on nickel prices is relatively small. In the long - run, factors such as US easing expectations and domestic policies will support nickel prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and go long on dips if the price drops significantly [21]. Tin - **Market News**: Tin prices declined due to the Sino - US trade friction. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand in some downstream industries is in the peak season [22]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, the trade friction may reduce market risk appetite, but the tin market is in a tight supply - demand balance. It is recommended to wait and see, and the price is expected to remain high and volatile [23]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market News**: The spot price of carbonate lithium was stable, and the price of lithium concentrate decreased slightly [24]. - **Strategy**: The demand for lithium batteries has led to a reduction in social inventory, but the expected supply increase restricts the upside space of lithium prices. Attention should be paid to macro - environment changes and supply - demand expectations [25]. Alumina - **Market News**: The alumina index declined, and the spot price in Shandong decreased. The overseas price increased, and the import window is approaching closure [26][27]. - **Strategy**: The price of ore has short - term support but may be under pressure after the rainy season. The over - capacity situation in the alumina smelting industry is difficult to change in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to supply - side policies and Fed monetary policy [28]. Stainless Steel - **Market News**: Stainless steel prices rose, and the social inventory decreased. The prices of raw materials remained stable [29]. - **Strategy**: The stainless steel market is caught between cost support and weak demand. If the price of nickel iron continues to rise, stainless steel prices may rise in a volatile manner [29]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market News**: Aluminum alloy prices followed the trend of aluminum prices, rising first and then falling. The cost support was relatively strong, and the inventory situation was mixed [30]. - **Strategy**: The cost of aluminum has decreased, and the delivery pressure of near - month contracts is relatively high. However, with the improvement of downstream consumption and the reduction of raw material supply, the price is expected to have support [31]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market News**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil showed different trends. The inventory of rebar increased, and the demand was weak during the National Day holiday [33]. - **Strategy**: The tariff policy may impact the steel market through the overall commodity sentiment. The short - term weak demand situation is difficult to reverse, and attention should be paid to policy strength as the Fourth Plenary Session approaches [33]. Iron Ore - **Market News**: Iron ore prices rose slightly. The supply of overseas mines was stable, and the demand for iron ore was affected by the production of steel mills [34][35]. - **Strategy**: The supply of iron ore may decline slightly, and the demand is affected by the production of steel mills. The new tariff statement may impact the price, and different trading strategies should be adopted according to the development of the trade situation [37]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: - **Market News**: Glass prices rose, and the inventory increased. The buying enthusiasm of downstream customers was relatively high [38]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to be bullish in the short - term and pay attention to policy trends [38]. - **Soda Ash**: - **Market News**: Soda ash prices declined slightly, and the inventory decreased. The market trading was stable [39]. - **Strategy**: The domestic soda ash market is expected to remain stable in the short - term [39]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market News**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon declined slightly. The market was affected by Trump's tariff statement [40]. - **Strategy**: The black building materials sector may first decline and then rebound. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are expected to follow the trend of the black building materials sector, and it is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips [43][44]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: - **Market News**: Industrial silicon prices rose slightly. The supply and demand situation was relatively stable, and the cost support was relatively strong [45]. - **Strategy**: The short - term price is expected to oscillate. In the long - run, the price is expected to rise due to factors such as reduced supply in the southwest region and increased cost [48]. - **Polysilicon**: - **Market News**: Polysilicon prices declined. The supply was relatively high, and the demand was weak [49]. - **Strategy**: The short - term price is under pressure due to high inventory and weak demand. In the long - run, the supply - demand pattern may improve after the maintenance of leading manufacturers in November [50]. Energy Chemicals Rubber - **Market News**: Rubber prices declined due to the US tariff statement. The weather in Thailand may affect rubber production, and the tire开工率 decreased during the National Day holiday [52][54]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see or operate short - term according to the trend. A hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2511 is suggested [56]. Crude Oil - **Market News**: Crude oil prices declined, and the inventory of refined oil products showed different trends [57]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and adopt a range - trading strategy of going long on dips and shorting on rallies [58]. Methanol and Urea - **Market News**: The prices of methanol and urea showed similar trends. The supply was relatively high, and the demand was weak during the holiday [59][60]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see as the short - term fundamental situation is weak, but the downside space is limited [59][60]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market News**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene declined. The supply of pure benzene was relatively wide, and the inventory of styrene increased [61]. - **Strategy**: The BZN spread has room for upward repair. The price of styrene may stop falling with the arrival of the seasonal peak season [62]. PVC - **Market News**: PVC prices declined. The supply was relatively high, and the demand was weak. The inventory increased [63]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply - demand situation is weak, and it is recommended to go short on rallies in the medium - term [64]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: Ethylene glycol prices declined. The supply was relatively high, and the inventory increased [65]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go short on rallies as the supply is expected to increase in the fourth quarter and the valuation is relatively high [66]. PTA - **Market News**: PTA prices declined. The supply was affected by device maintenance, and the demand was relatively stable [67][68]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see as the supply is in a de - stocking pattern, but the processing fee space is limited, and the demand terminal shows signs of weakness [69]. p - Xylene - **Market News**: p - Xylene prices declined. The supply was relatively high, and the inventory increased [70]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see as the p - Xylene market is in a situation of high supply and low demand, and the valuation is relatively low [71]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market News**: PE prices declined. The upstream开工率 increased, and the inventory decreased [72]. - **Strategy**: The price of PE is expected to oscillate upward as the cost support exists, the inventory is decreasing, and the demand is expected to increase in the seasonal peak season [73]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market News**: PP prices declined. The upstream开工率 decreased slightly, and the inventory situation was mixed [74]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand situation is weak, and the inventory pressure is relatively high. The price is affected by factors such as planned production capacity and seasonal demand [75]. Agricultural Products Pig - **Market News**: Pig prices declined in most regions. The supply was relatively abundant, and the demand was relatively weak [77]. - **Strategy**: The supply pressure in the fourth quarter is relatively large, but the risk for the Spring Festival has been partially released. It is recommended to reduce short positions and pay attention to positive spreads opportunities [78]. Egg - **Market News**: Egg prices were stable. The supply was relatively large, and the demand was affected by the economic environment [79]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to be bearish on the near - term and wait for opportunities to go short after the price rebounds in the medium - term [81]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Market News**: CBOT soybean prices declined, and domestic soybean meal prices rose. The supply of soybeans was relatively high [82]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply pressure is relatively large. In the medium - term, it is recommended to go short on rallies, and in the short - term, the price is expected to fluctuate in a range [83]. Edible Oils - **Market News**: The export volume of Malaysian palm oil increased in October. The price of domestic edible oils declined due to the decline of crude oil prices and weak market sentiment [84]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and go long on dips in the medium - term as the supply - demand situation is expected to tighten [85]. Sugar - **Market News**: Sugar prices declined. The production of sugar in Brazil increased in the first half of September [88]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go short on rallies in the fourth quarter as the supply of sugar is expected to increase [89]. Cotton - **Market News**: Cotton prices rose slightly. The Sino - US trade conflict resumed, and the demand in the "Golden September and Silver October" season was weak [90]. - **Strategy**: The short - term cotton price is expected to decline due to weak fundamentals and macro - negative factors [91].

南方财经记者 翁榕涛 实习生 李欣彤 马雨欣 消息面上，除美联储释放的鸽派信号之外，桥水基金创始人瑞·达利欧公开表示黄金"比美元更具避风港 作用"，进一步强化了市场对贵金属的配置信心。地缘政治方面，中东局势再现波折，推动避险情绪升 温。 光大期货认为，下半年金价将继续呈现"高位震荡、中枢上移"的特征，预计COMEX黄金期货价格在 3400~3700美元/盎司区间运行。 国庆节后的首周，国内大宗商品期货涨跌不一，贵金属、黑色系及基本金属板块领涨，能源化工板块及 部分农产品显著回落。 10月9日至12日期间，就国内期货市场具体来看，能源化工板块，燃油周下跌3.00%、原油下跌3.71%； 黑色系板块，铁矿石周上涨1.86%、焦煤上涨3.11%、焦炭上涨2.68%；基本金属板块，沪锌周上涨 2.04%、沪铜上涨3.37%、沪铝上涨1.45%；贵金属板块，沪金周上涨3.11%、沪银上涨1.50%；农产品板 块，鸡蛋周下跌7.64%、生猪下跌8.38%、豆粕下跌0.20%、棕榈油上涨2.28%。 交易行情热点 热点一：国际金价突破历史新高 供需与政策共振支撑高位运行 节日期间，国际金价强势上涨。受美国联邦政府停摆问题持 ...