证券研究报告 | 2025年05月09日 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2025-05-08 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 3351.99 | 10197.65 | 3852.89 | 11359.70 | 2825.99 | 1026.43 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | 0.27 | 0.92 | 0.55 | 0.81 | 1.48 | -0.36 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 5016.11 | 7917.66 | 2469.87 | 2808.35 | 3757.92 | 217.02 | 宏观快评:美国 5 月 FOMC 会议点评-政策观望窗口期延长，短期重心仍在 通胀 【常规内容】 宏观与策略 宏观周报:高技术制造业宏观周报-国信周频高技术制造业扩散指数略有 下降 固定收益周报:政府债务周度观察-土地收储项目披露超 3500 亿 行业与公司 非银行业快评:《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》点评-重权益 ...

集运指数 商品期货： 有色金属： 广发早知道-汇总版 投资咨询业务资格： 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 5 月 9 日星期五 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 铜、锌、镍、不锈钢、锡、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、铁合金 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、花生、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂（投资咨询资格：Z0016336） 电话：020-88818026 邮箱：qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020- 88818017 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z001 ...

商品日报 20250509 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：美英达成有限贸易协议，市场风险偏好提振 海外方面，美英达成有限贸易协议：保留对英 10%的基准关税、扩大双方市场准入、取 消对英钢铝关税、对美农产品实行 0 关税、对英汽车进口实行阶梯关税；特朗普在新闻发布 会直呼"现在最好买入股票"，市场风险偏好显著回升，美股、加密货币反弹，美元指数站 稳 100 上方，美债利率上行至 4.37%，金价下跌超 1%，油价、铜价收涨。 国内方面，A 股缩量上涨，两市成交额回落至 1.32 万亿，创业板、小微盘股表现较优， 军工、光模块等板块领涨，上证指数已修复 4 月对等关税宣布来的跌幅，在二季度增量政策 已落地、中美贸易即将进入谈判期的背景下，关注资金的追涨意愿。债市方面，降准降息后 资金面显著转松，长短端利率均走低，利率曲线继续走陡，近期关注 4 月外贸数据、金融数 据及物价数据。 贵金属：经贸关系缓和，金价延续调整 周四国际贵金属期货双双收跌，COMEX ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a reasonable valuation range of 15.41 to 18.49 CNY per share, indicating a potential upside of 47% to 77% from the current price of 10.24 CNY [5]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the domestic zinc smelting industry, with a comprehensive business model that includes mining, smelting, and sales of non-ferrous metals, particularly lead, zinc, gold, and silver [1][27]. - The company has a robust production capacity, with an annual output of over 40,000 tons of lead and zinc metals, along with 1.8 to 2 tons of gold and approximately 60 tons of silver [1][38]. - The company has recently completed a significant asset restructuring, acquiring core lead and zinc assets, which has enhanced its operational capabilities and resource base [16][47]. Summary by Sections Business Overview - The company primarily engages in the mining and smelting of lead, zinc, and precious metals, with nearly half of its gross profit derived from precious metals [1]. - It operates three mines and has a total mining capacity of 860,000 tons per year, with significant resources in lead, zinc, gold, and silver [2][32]. Financial Performance - The company forecasts a substantial increase in net profit, projecting 1.1 billion CNY for 2025, representing a 40% growth from the previous year [4]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 19.4 billion CNY in 2023 to 20.9 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.1% [4][28]. Resource and Production Capacity - The company has a total lead and zinc metal resource of approximately 870,000 tons, with gold and silver resources of 43 tons and 1,259 tons, respectively [35]. - The mining rights include the Water Mouth Mountain lead-zinc mine and the Bafang copper mine, which contribute to the company's strong resource base [2][19]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights an improving market for zinc processing fees, with domestic zinc concentrate processing fees showing an upward trend, which is expected to enhance smelting profits [2]. - The company benefits from a favorable resource endowment, with high-grade ore and a well-structured supply chain that supports its production needs [32][35].

Industry Overview - China's zinc concentrate production has shown a decline overall, stabilizing around 3.5 million tons since 2020. In 2023, domestic zinc concentrate production reached 3.69 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 11%. However, in 2024, production is expected to decrease to 3.4688 million tons, a year-on-year decline of 6.12% [1][10] - The supply situation for zinc ore in 2024 is significantly below expectations due to adjustments in mining plans, declining ore grades, and weather conditions. Advances in exploration technology, such as deep exploration techniques, are expected to uncover more zinc resources, providing a resource base for increased zinc concentrate production [1][10] Industry Chain Definition and Classification - The zinc mining industry encompasses a complete system from resource exploration to end-product application. The upstream focuses on exploration and mining, the midstream is dedicated to smelting and processing, and the downstream involves the application and recycling of zinc products across various industries [3] Development History - The development of China's zinc mining industry has gone through three stages: initial establishment, rapid growth, and integration upgrade. Initially, the industry was weak and relied on imports, but it gradually achieved self-sufficiency. After the reform and opening up, the industry experienced rapid growth with significant improvements in mining and smelting technologies. In the 21st century, the industry began to integrate and upgrade, focusing on technological innovation and resource recycling [5][6] Current Development Status - China is one of the world's major zinc resource countries, with proven zinc reserves ranking among the top globally. As of 2023, China's zinc reserves reached 59.9271 million tons, with significant concentrations in regions such as Inner Mongolia, Yunnan, and Qinghai [8][12] Key Enterprises Analysis - The competitive landscape of China's zinc mining industry is diverse and intense. Key players include: - Chihong Zn & Ge Co., Ltd., which has a complete industry chain and leading technology in zinc mining and processing [14][16] - Zhongjin Lingnan Nonfemet Company, which has a strong resource reserve and comprehensive industry chain layout [14][16] - Luoping Zinc & Electricity Co., Ltd., focusing on high-quality zinc smelting and processing [14][16] - Zijin Mining Group, a global mining giant with advanced technology and a global business network [14][16] Future Development Trends - Intelligent mining and ore selection are becoming important trends in the zinc mining industry, utilizing advanced technologies such as big data and AI to optimize mining processes [20] - The development of green smelting technology is crucial for sustainable development, focusing on energy conservation and resource recycling [21][22] - Extending the industry chain and enhancing product added value are key directions for transformation and upgrading, allowing companies to diversify and improve profitability [23]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-05-08 锌锭库存低位制约锌价下跌空间 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-39.30 美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日下跌90元/吨至22770元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水较前一交易日上涨55元/吨至515元/吨，SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日下跌140元/吨至22770 元/吨。SMM广东锌现货升贴水较前一交易日上涨5元/吨至515元/吨，SMM天津锌现货价较前一交易日下跌140元/ 吨至22760元/吨。SMM天津锌现货升贴水较前一交易日上涨5元/吨至505元/吨。 期货方面：2025-05-07沪锌主力合约开于22300元/吨，收于22210元/吨，较前一交易日下跌210元/吨，全天交易日 成交155956手，较前一交易日增加40900手，全天交易日持仓116701手，较前一交易日增加4986手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到22530元/吨，最低点达到22210元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-05-06，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为8.41万吨，较上周同期减少-0.18万吨。截止2025-05-07，LME 锌库存为171400吨，较上一交易日减少15 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年5月8日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面：外媒4月16日消息， 世界金属统计局( WBMS )公布的最新数据 报告显示, 2025年2月, 全球锌板产量为112.45万吨,消费量为110.79万吨, 供应过剩1.66万吨。1-2月，全球锌板产量为225.30万吨，消费量为222.75 万吨,供应过剩2.55万吨。2月,全球锌矿产量为98.40万吨。1-2月,全球锌 矿产量为196.398.3万吨；偏空。 2、基差：现货22850，基差+640；偏多。 3、库存：5月7日LME锌库存较上日减少1525吨至171400吨，5月7日上期所 锌库存仓单较上日减少199吨至2053吨；偏多。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡下跌走势，收20日均 ...

2025/5/8 单位 今值 变动 近期趋势 SMM1#铅锭平均价格 元/吨 16,550.00 -0.30% 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 0.00% 16,700.00 沪铅基差 元/吨 -150.00 -50.00 升贴水-上海 元/吨 - - 升贴水-LME 0-3 美元/吨 -17.64 -2.43 升贴水-LME 3-15 美元/吨 -65.80 -0.70 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 元/吨 -50.00 30.00 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 元/吨 10.00 20.00 沪铅连二-沪铅连三 元/吨 5.00 15.00 期货活跃合约成交量 手 44,962.00 24.39% 期货活跃合约持仓量 手 36,929.00 -3.97% 成交持仓比 / 1.22 29.53% LME库存 吨 0.00% 256,700.00 沪铅仓单库存 吨 39,981.00 -0.06% LME3个月铅期货收盘价（电子盘） 美元/吨 0.00% 1,923.00 沪伦铅价比值 / 0.00% 8.68 SMM1#锌锭平均价格 元/吨 22,700.00 -0.39% 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 22,210.00 -0.6 ...

2025年05月08日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：中美谈判略有进展 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡回落 | 3 | | 铜：库存持续下降，限制价格回落 | 5 | | 铝：价格承压 | 7 | | 氧化铝：继续磨底 | 7 | | 锌：承压运行 | 9 | | 铅：供需双弱，区间震荡 | 10 | | 镍：上下方空间收敛，镍价重回窄幅震荡 | 11 | | 不锈钢：现货补跌修复基差，盘面下方仍有支撑 | 11 | | 锡：假期间价格走弱 | 13 | | 工业硅：需求疲软，盘面弱势 | 15 | | 多晶硅：盘面再创上市新低 | 15 | | 碳酸锂：成本重心延续下移，累库格局制约反弹 | 17 | | 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 19 | | 螺纹钢：需求预期不佳，低位反复 | 20 | | 热轧卷板：需求预期不佳，低位反复 | 20 | | 硅铁：宏观因素影响，硅铁宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 锰硅：宏观因素影响，锰硅宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦炭：震荡偏弱 | 24 | | 焦煤：电煤疏港情绪影响，震荡偏弱 | 24 | | 动力煤：强制疏港情绪影响，震 ...

. 贵金属有色金属产业日报 2025/5/7 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和建议。 在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形下做出修 改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交 易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻版、复制、发表、引用 或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 本公司 ...