在发挥货币信贷支持科技创新的重要作用方面，《实施方案》提出，力争每年通过科技创新和技术改造 再贷款政策工具撬动相关贷款投放不低于1000亿元；建立"中关村领航积分"评价模型；支持银行探索为 科技型企业提供5年期以上"科创贷"，用于创新研发活动并按需无还本续贷；鼓励银行在科创资源密集 区域设立科技特色支行，力争到2027年底实现中关村特色产业园全覆盖；力争2027年年底在中关村科创 金融服务中心开展的各项业务授信金额不低于1000亿元等。 《实施方案》还就发挥资本市场支持科技创新的关键枢纽作用、发挥科技保险支持创新的减震器和稳定 器作用、加强财政政策对科技金融的引导和支持、打造科技金融开放创新生态、加强组织实施提出多项 具体举措。 中国青年报客户端北京10月16日电（中青报·中青网记者 尹希宁）近日，北京亮出多个高水平科技自立 自强的"金融目标"：到2027年年底，科技创新领域引入长期资本、耐心资本等在京新设基金规模力争超 万亿元；科技贷款和科技型企业贷款余额分别突破5.5万亿元和2.5万亿元，年均增速高于全国平均水平 和全市各项贷款增速；推动科技创新债券、科技保险、科技型企业上市和不动产投资信托基金 （REI ...

10月16日早盘，港股三大指数走势分化，恒生科技指数震荡下行。A股同赛道规模最大的恒生科技指数 ETF（513180）跟随指数下跌，持仓股中，小米集团、小鹏汽车、蔚来、金蝶国际、京东健康等领跌， 比亚迪电子、华虹、哔哩哔哩等领涨。 板块方面，昨日表现活跃的新能源汽车股今日多数回调，蔚来一度跌超3%，小鹏汽车一度跌超2.5%。 此前多家新能源车企公布的9月交付数据显示，小鹏汽车、蔚来等月交付量均创历史新高，其中小鹏汽 车月交付量首次超4万台。 外部因素扰动下，近期市场波动加剧。多家机构此前表示，回调或为增配港股科技板块时机。长江证券 认为，从流动性角度来看，港股流动性有望持续受益于美联储降息周期。国元国际表示，政策预期目前 仍然是支撑港股估值的另一个支柱，预计港股中长期内保持韧性。短期的波动可能会带来更为良好的入 场时机，预期短线调整后港股或将很快修复。截至发文，今日南向资金净买入额已近90亿港元。 截至10月15日，恒生科技指数ETF（513180）标的指数最新估值（PETTM）为23.14倍，处于指数发布 以来约30.69%的估值分位点，仍处于历史相对低估区间，而高弹性、高成长等特性使其具备更大的向 上动能 ...

不过他也直言，当前市场纳斯达克指数的上涨高度依赖少数几只人工智能龙头股，这种结构性失衡可能放大市场波动。也正因 此，他透露自己目前并未持有任何股票多头仓位，选择等待一到两周再做决策。 知名对冲基金经理保罗・都铎・琼斯明确指出，在市场普遍预期利率下行的背景下，纳斯达克综合指数有望在今年年底前实现 上涨。 作为拥有丰富实战经验的亿万富翁投资者，琼斯认为，美国股市能否在"最后两个月"迎来大幅上涨，关键取决于大型科技公司 即将公布的财报表现，以及贸易冲突能否在10月底前取得实质性解决。如果这两个条件均能满足，科技股的盈利支撑将得到验 证，市场对贸易不确定性的担忧也会缓解，双重利好下股市上涨动力将显著增强。 琼斯称10月底至11月初是判断后续行情的"关键转折点"。这一时间段既是科技公司财报集中披露的尾声，也是贸易冲突解决窗 口期的关键节点，纳斯达克指数在此期间的表现将直接决定年底行情走向。如果指数能保持坚挺，意味着市场已消化潜在风 险，后续有望开启强劲的年底上涨行情。 琼斯预测美联储当前4%-4.25%的基准利率区间，将在明年此时降至2.5%左右。，当前全球经济已进入"实物约束"时代，各国政 府不得不努力维持低利率，因 ...

摄影：Bob君 "港股IPO至少能火到2026年。" 这是目前投行家们的普遍共识，他们认为，港股市场正处于"政策+资金+情绪"的三重共振期，预计2026年仍将维持高位运行。 Wind数据也显示，截至2025年10月13日，今年以来共有269家公司向港交所递交IPO招股材料，创历史新高。 其中，6月是年内递表数量最多的月份，达到65家。其次是9月份，达到60家。 从行业分布看，2025年以来递表的公司中，信息技术、医疗保健、工业、可选消费、材料、日常消费占比较高。尤其是2025年以来，已经有83家A股上市 公司向港交所递交上市申请，超过过去10年总和。 文：韦亚军 4500亿港元资金南下，与IPO递表行业分布高度一致。 "政策+资金+情绪" 三重共振 港股IPO的火爆，首先应该归功于2025年港股市场迎来的多重政策利好。 自2018年以来，港交所持续优化上市制度，尤其是"18C章"的设立，为尚未盈利的科技、生物医药、新能源等新经济企业提供了上市通道。 在此基础上，港交所于2025年又进一步下调了特专科技公司上市门槛，将已商业化公司市值要求从60亿港元降至40亿港元，未商业化公司从100亿港元降 至80亿港元，大 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the phenomenon of "cult-like" consumer behavior surrounding Pop Mart, likening it to a modern form of religion where fans exhibit extreme loyalty and emotional investment in collectible toys [1][10][11] - Pop Mart's marketing strategies, including limited editions and hidden variants, create a sense of scarcity and exclusivity, driving up demand and prices in the secondary market [6][7][12] Group 1: Consumer Behavior - Pop Mart has become a leading brand in the collectible toy market, attracting significant attention and interaction from high-profile figures, including Apple's CEO Tim Cook [2] - Fans exhibit extreme behaviors, such as waiting in long lines for store openings, which can lead to conflicts and chaotic scenes when products are sold out or purchased by resellers [4][6] - The emotional highs and lows experienced by fans during the purchasing process reflect a deeper psychological connection to the brand, akin to religious fervor [1][11] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The resale market for Pop Mart toys has seen prices soar, with items originally priced at 59 yuan being resold for 100-500 yuan, and some limited editions reaching prices up to thousands of yuan [6][12] - The brand's ability to create a "cult" following is evident in the willingness of fans to pay inflated prices to obtain rare items, demonstrating a shift in consumer values from utility to emotional significance [11][12] - Pop Mart's marketing effectively manipulates consumer emotions, creating a sense of community and shared experience among fans, which enhances brand loyalty and market demand [10][12]

Core Viewpoint - The current economic fundamentals are showing signs of improvement, which is expected to gradually spread across more industries, supported by macro policies aimed at reducing competition and enhancing market sentiment [1] Group 1: Technology Sector - The technology sector is expected to remain the main focus of the market, driven by the AI wave that has opened up new growth opportunities across multiple industries since September 2024 [2] - Historical data shows significant profit growth in technology sectors during previous waves, such as the increase in net profit growth of the computer sector from 3% in Q1 2013 to 175% in Q1 2016 [2] - The outlook for the next year remains positive for the technology sector, particularly in AI applications [2] Group 2: Value Sector - The value sector is also seen as having investment potential, with expectations of a rotation in industries and potential for catch-up gains [2] - Three specific areas of focus within the value sector include real estate, brokerage firms, and consumer goods [3] Group 3: Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector has undergone significant adjustments and currently has low overall valuations, with expectations for more supportive policies to stabilize the market [3] - Low-valued real estate stocks are believed to have recovery potential [3] Group 4: Brokerage Sector - The brokerage sector is expected to benefit from a recovering market, with a noticeable increase in trading volume and a significant year-on-year rise in net profits [3] - Further market sentiment recovery could lead to increased trading volumes and enhanced profitability for brokerages [3] Group 5: Consumer Sector - The consumer sector, particularly the liquor industry, is highlighted for its potential, with the liquor index having declined for five consecutive years, leading to high dividend yields and improved cost-effectiveness [3] - The recovery in the stock market is anticipated to boost consumer spending, further supporting the upward movement of the consumer sector [3]

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing fluctuations, but foreign investment giants like Fidelity, Allianz, and Invesco are optimistic about its long-term potential, particularly in technology stocks [1][2] - External factors causing market adjustments are seen as opportunities for long-term positioning, with a focus on structural growth driven by earnings [1][3] - The current market environment is characterized by a favorable macroeconomic policy and a revaluation of Chinese assets, enhancing the long-term investability of the A-share market [1] Group 2 - Allianz Fund highlights ten reasons for global investors to embrace A-shares, emphasizing China's technological advancements and diverse investment opportunities in sectors like advanced driving assistance systems and electric vehicles [2] - Invesco's research indicates that technology stocks remain a key investment theme, with significant interest from foreign institutions in companies like Rongbai Technology and Weili Transmission [3] - Fidelity International notes that Chinese technology stocks are gaining attractiveness, supported by strong fundamentals and management teams, despite the market's recovery this year [3]

来源：淼淼de茶话室 前国际货币基金组织首席经济学家：世界对美国股市的依赖已经变得非常危险，如严重下跌对世界经济的打击将是前所未有的#美股[超话]## 美股##海外新鲜事# 本文刊发在经济学人网站。作者吉塔·戈皮纳斯是哈佛大学格雷戈里和阿尼亚·科菲经济学教授，曾于2022年至2025年担任国际货币基金组织第 一副总裁，并于2019年至2022年担任首席经济学家。 美国股市近期在贸易紧张局势加剧的背景下大幅波动，但整体仍接近历史高位。 这轮上涨由人工智能热潮驱动，让人联想到上世纪90年代末的狂热情绪，最终以2000年的互联网泡沫破裂告终。尽管技术创新确实在重塑行 业、提升生产力，但当前这波行情可能正为新一轮市场剧烈调整埋下隐患。 为海外华人提供有价值的信息与分析，更多内容见蓝天、电报、x，可搜索causmoney 不同的是，这一次的崩盘后果，可能比25年前更严重，影响范围也更加全球化。 真正令人担忧的是，全球对美国股票的高度依赖。过去15年，美国家庭在股市上的投资大幅增加，背后是强劲的回报和美国科技企业的主导地 位。出于同样的原因，欧洲等地的外国投资者也纷纷涌入美国股市，同时还从美元走强中受益。 这种日益紧密的 ...

We certainly uh do see some stretching of valuation. So at the moment we think that stocks are you know perhaps 10% overvalued on average. Uh though that is much less than say in the tech bubble of 99 where according to our estimates in the global financial stability report the stretching was uh twice as much of the order of 20%.So it's not dot all over again. Exactly. It is not. It is not.Um but having said that there's very high concentration right so whereas in the dotcom bubble you saw so like many comp ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate a rate cut cycle, with a 97.3% probability of a 25 basis point cut in October, marking a significant policy shift since 2019 [1][4] - Current economic indicators show a combination of high inflation and weakening employment, suggesting that this rate cut cycle may be more abrupt and intense than in 2019 [4] Group 1: Economic Signals - Powell's speech highlighted three key signals: the ongoing deterioration of the U.S. labor market, the economic impact of a potential government shutdown, and the possibility of halting balance sheet reduction [1] - The core PCE price index stands at 3.7%, significantly higher than the 1.6% recorded in 2019, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [4] Group 2: Impact on Housing and Savings - Historical data suggests that a Fed rate cut typically leads to a decrease in domestic LPR rates within 1-2 quarters, potentially lowering mortgage rates by 0.15%-0.3%, which could reduce monthly payments by 200-400 CNY for a 1 million CNY 30-year loan [5] - Following the initiation of a rate cut cycle, domestic bank deposit rates are expected to decline, with three-year large-denomination time deposits likely falling below 2.5% [6] Group 3: Market Reactions - Based on past experiences, the S&P 500 index has historically risen by 12% within three months following the first rate cut, with potential benefits for A-share consumer and gold sectors [8] - In the 2019 rate cut cycle, gold prices increased by 23%, while the U.S. stock market exhibited a "buy the rumor, sell the news" pattern, suggesting that asset price volatility may be more pronounced in the current environment [11] Group 4: Investment Strategies - It is recommended to allocate 40%-50% of assets to low-risk instruments such as government bonds, with a current 10-year government bond yield of approximately 2.8% [11] - Investors should consider a 1-3 month window for potential rebounds in U.S. tech stocks post-Fed policy shift, while implementing strict stop-loss measures [12] Group 5: Currency and Risk Management - The U.S. dollar index may fall below the 105 mark, prompting investors holding dollar-denominated assets to consider gradual currency conversion [13] - The attractiveness of RMB assets is expected to increase, although monitoring the China-U.S. interest rate differential remains crucial [13] Group 6: Conclusion - The rate cut cycle represents a process of cash devaluation and asset revaluation, with conservative investors advised to increase bond allocations to over 50% [14] - Maintaining liquidity is essential for seizing future opportunities, especially with another potential 50 basis point cut anticipated in December [14]