1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May 2025, the temporary easing of China-US trade negotiations led to the release of previously postponed production demand, driving the PMI to rise. However, there is still uncertainty about the tariff outlook, and the recovery of new orders is relatively slow. The domestic off - season effect is becoming more prominent, and the contribution of domestic demand to new order growth has decreased compared to April [3][9]. - For the bond market, the fundamental conditions still provide support. Considering the historical experience of trade frictions from 2018 - 2019, there may be fluctuations in subsequent tariff policy negotiations. The uncertainty of external conditions may affect expectations, production, and inventory - stocking intentions and rhythms. The "rush - to - export" elasticity in May is not significantly higher than that in April, and the year - on - year increase in May's exports may be lower than expected. In the traditional off - season, the potential for unexpected growth in domestic demand in May is limited, so the bond market is still supported. Attention should be paid to the data verification in June and potential "expectation gaps" [3][41]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Manufacturing PMI: External Disturbances Ease, PMI Moderately Recovers 3.1.1 Supply and Demand: Tariff Disturbances Ease, Production Accelerates Recovery - In May, production increased by 0.9 pct month - on - month to 50.7%, returning to the expansion range. The easing of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations in mid - May slowed the decline in exports, and the demand for existing foreign trade orders was released in an orderly manner, accelerating the production and procurement rhythms compared to April. The procurement volume index increased by 1.3 pct month - on - month to 47.6%, and imports increased by 3.7 pct month - on - month to 47.1%, with the decline significantly narrowing [16]. - Demand stabilized in May, and new orders improved moderately. New orders increased by 0.6 pct month - on - month to 49.8% but remained in the contraction range. After the easing of trade negotiations, export orders recovered marginally, reducing the contraction of new orders. However, the difference between "new orders - new export orders" narrowed, and domestic demand orders decreased due to the off - season, which may limit the recovery of new orders [19]. 3.1.2 Foreign Trade: Negotiations Ease, New Export Orders are Concentratedly Released - In May, the easing of tariff negotiations led to the release of overseas order increments. New export orders and imports increased by 2.8 pct and 3.7 pct month - on - month to 47.5% and 47.1% respectively, with their elasticity restored. Combining the month - on - month changes in April and May, both were better than the same period in previous years, indicating a wider improvement in the foreign trade prosperity of manufacturing enterprises in May [26]. 3.1.3 Price: External Disturbances Narrow, Price Decline Slows - In May, the impact of the traditional off - season became more evident, and the prices of upstream bulk commodities remained weak, causing prices to decline slightly. The purchase price of raw materials and the ex - factory price both decreased by 0.1 pct month - on - month to 46.9% and 44.7% respectively. Although the price continued to weaken marginally, the narrowing of external disturbances slowed the price decline [31]. 3.1.4 Inventory: Increased Procurement Boosts Raw Material Replenishment, and Products are Rapidly De - stocked - In May, with the acceleration of procurement, raw material inventories increased, and downstream de - stocking accelerated. The easing of the negotiation situation accelerated the shipment of downstream exports, and finished product inventories decreased by 0.8 pct month - on - month to 46.5%. As the production rhythm recovered, the material procurement volume increased month - on - month, and raw material inventories increased by 0.4 pct month - on - month to 47.4% [35]. 3.2 Non - manufacturing PMI: The Drag of Real Estate Construction May Continue to Expand, and the Service Industry during the Holiday Season Shows Many Highlights - In May, the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1 pct. Among them, the service industry PMI increased by 0.1 pct month - on - month to 50.2%, and the construction industry PMI decreased by 0.9 pct month - on - month to 51.0%, with the expansion continuing to slow due to the drag of real estate construction demand [36]. 3.2.1 Construction Industry - In May, the construction industry PMI continued to decline, while infrastructure demand further strengthened. The new export orders of civil engineering construction rose above 60%, significantly driving the industry PMI to climb for two consecutive months and reach above 62%. The easing of trade negotiations boosted the acceleration of overseas infrastructure investment to some extent. However, the overall construction industry PMI continued to decline, indicating that the activity rhythm of the housing construction industry may have further contracted in May [2][36]. 3.2.2 Service Industry - Holiday consumption boosted the improvement of the service industry PMI. In May, the expansion of the service industry PMI accelerated slightly. The production and new order indices of the information service industry maintained strong expansion. The release of consumption demand during the May Day holiday significantly increased the month - on - month PMI of railway, air, and water transportation industries. The accommodation and catering industries rose above the boom - bust line, ending three consecutive months of contraction [2][36].

Group 1 - Industrial production has seen rapid growth, with the added value of equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing increasing by around 10%. The production of 3D printing equipment and industrial robots has surged by over 50%. This growth is attributed to macro policy measures that have accelerated industrial upgrades, leading to enhanced production efficiency and quality [1][3] Group 2 - Market sales are on the rise, driven by the effectiveness of the "old-for-new" consumption policy. Retail sales in categories such as home appliances, cultural and office supplies, and furniture are experiencing high growth. Various local departments are implementing special actions to boost consumption, enriching consumption scenarios and continuously releasing consumption potential [4][6] Group 3 - Foreign trade has shown resilience, with total goods import and export volume increasing by 2.4% year-on-year from January to April 2025, accelerating by 1.1 percentage points compared to the first quarter. This growth is notable against the backdrop of rising unilateralism and protectionism, supported by China's strong manufacturing capabilities and the proactive response of foreign trade enterprises through market diversification strategies [8][10] Group 4 - Investment is steadily expanding, with high-tech industry investments leading the way. Investments in information services and computer and office equipment manufacturing are in a high growth phase, indicating optimistic market expectations and strong demand for industrial upgrades, reflecting the trend of China's economic transition towards innovation-driven growth [10][12]

Economic Overview - In April, China's economy demonstrated resilience and continued to grow despite external shocks and internal challenges, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics [1] - Key production and demand indicators maintained stable and rapid growth, indicating a positive trend in economic performance [2] Industrial Performance - The industrial added value for April increased by 6.1% year-on-year, although the growth rate decreased by 1.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [3] - High-tech industries such as information services, computer and office equipment manufacturing, and aerospace manufacturing showed significant investment growth, with increases of 40.6%, 28.9%, and 23.9% respectively [2] Private Sector Contribution - The private economy exhibited unique resilience and vitality, contributing significantly to the overall economic improvement in April [4] - Private enterprises' industrial added value grew by 6.7%, while private investment increased by 0.2% year-on-year [4] New Energy Vehicles - The production of new energy vehicles in April rose by 38.9% year-on-year, supported by government policies promoting vehicle trade-in programs [6] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 51.7%, reflecting a growing acceptance among consumers [6][7] Consumer Market Trends - The consumer market showed signs of recovery, with online retail sales reaching 47,419 billion yuan, a 7.7% increase year-on-year [8] - Sales of upgraded consumer goods, such as home appliances and furniture, experienced significant growth, indicating strong demand for consumer upgrades [8] Real Estate Market - In April, 22 out of 70 major cities saw new home prices increase month-on-month, with Shanghai and Dalian leading the growth at 0.5% [9] - Notably, the year-on-year price increase in Shanghai, Taiyuan, and Hangzhou suggests a potential rebound in certain real estate markets [10]

21世纪经济报道记者 周妙妙 深圳报道 5月18日，中国证券监督管理委员会原主席肖钢在2025年清华五道口全球金融论坛表示，今年一季度我 国数字经济持续保持良好发展态势。其中数字经济核心产业增势良好，增长速度保持在10%以上（两位 数增长）。 他介绍，从数字制造业增加值情况来看，数字制造业同比增长了11.5%，高于同期工业和高技术制造业 增幅；从数字服务业增加值情况看，如信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业的增加值的同比增长也达到了 两位数。 同时，数字经济投资也实现了高增长。在固定资产投资中，数字经济核心产业投资增速也实现了两位数 增长，特别是电子信息制造业、信息服务业的投资分别增长了10.1%和10.5%。 数字消费也实现稳中有升。肖钢介绍，当前数字产业和数字消费已经形成了供需协同局面，数字技术的 协同发展，不断推动着数字消费场景的拓展。如网上食品消费的增长快于整个消费增长，特别是今年以 来，以旧换新模式快速发展，进一步拉动了线上消费。由于数字技术不断创新，消费场景和体验得以改 善。通过互联网、人工智能、元宇宙等构建"内容+体验"的新场景不断涌现，也极大促进了数字消费的 发展。 从区域分布、企业总量来看，东部地 ...

ADP周三报告称，由于企业准备应对美国总统特朗普对美国贸易伙伴征收关税可能带来的影响，4月招聘速度急剧放缓。 这份报告正值特朗普关税政策对企业招聘计划和更广泛经济状况影响的不确定性加剧之际。ADP首席经济学家Nela Richardson表示，"不安是当前的主旋 律。雇主正试图在政策和消费者不确定性与一系列多数积极的经济数据之间取得平衡。在这样的环境下很难做出招聘决定。" 本月，美国私营部门新增就业人数仅为6.2万人，是自2024年7月以来的最小增幅，大幅低于11.5万人的预期，较3月下修后14.7万的增幅有所放缓。 数据公布后，现货黄金短线拉升，并一度重回3290美元。 ADP数据是劳工部周五公布的非农就业报告的先行指标，这两份报告可能存在显著差异。经济学家预计定于周五公布的非农就业报告将显示就业增长13.5万 人，与不包括政府就业的ADP数据不同，预计失业率将维持在4.2%不变。 工资增长也出现放缓，报告显示，留在现有岗位的员工薪资同比上涨4.5%，较3月下降0.1个百分点。然而，跳槽者薪资上涨至6.9%，上升0.2个百分点。 从行业角度来看，休闲和酒店业增幅最大，新增2.7万个就业岗位。其他录得增长的行 ...