Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the retail sector [3][56]. Core Insights - The retail sector is expected to benefit from increased policy support, with leading companies poised for growth [1][3]. - The overall consumption environment in 2025 is projected to be stable, with structural highlights emerging, particularly as consumption policies become clearer [1][12]. - The report identifies two main trends for 2026: the continuation of new consumption trends and the anticipated reversal of challenges faced by traditional consumption [2][20]. Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - In 2025, the SW retail index increased by 11.6%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 6.1 percentage points, while the beauty care index rose by only 0.4%, lagging behind the CSI 300 by 17.35 percentage points [1][16]. - The retail sector's performance was initially strong in the first half of 2025 but faced a decline in the second half due to a shift in market focus towards technology [1][16]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests several sectors for investment: 1. **Gold and Jewelry**: The sector is entering a consumption peak, with low valuations and expected growth in same-store sales and channel expansion. Recommended companies include潮宏基, 菜百股份, and 周大福 [3][56]. 2. **Beauty and Personal Care**: The sector is returning to low valuations, with traditional leaders showing signs of recovery. Recommended companies include 上美股份 and 珀莱雅 [3][56]. 3. **Offline Retail**: The end of the year is a peak sales period, with potential positive impacts from CPI recovery. Recommended companies include 名创优品 and 永辉超市 [3][56]. 4. **Cross-border E-commerce**: Companies are expected to benefit from reduced external tariff impacts, with recommendations including 小商品城 and 安克创新 [3][56]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts and investment ratings for key companies, all rated "Outperform" for 2025 and 2026, including 潮宏基, 上美股份, and 珀莱雅, with respective PE ratios indicating growth potential [5][59]. Recent Industry Data Tracking - As of November 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 43,898 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.3%. The growth was influenced by high base effects and the timing of promotional events [26][30]. - Online retail sales for the first 11 months of 2025 reached 144,582 billion yuan, growing by 9.1%, with physical goods online retail accounting for 25.9% of total retail sales [28][30]. Policy Support and Future Outlook - Recent policy initiatives emphasize the importance of boosting consumer spending, with a focus on increasing the consumption rate and stabilizing demand through various measures [13][24]. - The report anticipates that traditional consumption leaders will gradually improve their performance as they adapt to new market conditions and innovate their product offerings [24][20].

1月12日，A股市场整体上涨。 截至收盘，上证指数收报4165.29点，上涨1.09%；深证成指收报14366.91点，上涨1.75%；创业板指收 报3388.34点，上涨1.82%。两市合计成交36013.76亿元，较上一交易日增加4786.81亿元。 1.两市主力资金净流出超210亿元 | | | 沪深两市最近五个交易日主力资金流向情况(亿元) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | | 净流入金额 开盘净流入 | 尾盘净流入 | 超大单净买入 | | 2026-1-12 | -213.07 | -198.59 | -51. 60 | 53. 33 | | 2026-1-9 | -298.04 | -164. 63 | 1.02 | -16. 77 | | 2026-1-8 | -374. 35 | -163. 14 | -6. 58 | -144. 92 | | 2026-1-7 | -471.98 | -191. 26 | 8. 31 | -213. 68 | | 2026-1-6 | -176. 68 | -147.71 | 18. 05 | 33. ...

1月12日，A股市场整体上涨。 截至收盘，上证指数收报4165.29点，上涨1.09%；深证成指收报14366.91点，上涨1.75%；创业板 指收报3388.34点，上涨1.82%。两市合计成交36013.76亿元，较上一交易日增加4786.81亿元。 1. 两市主力资金净流出超210亿元 今日沪深两市主力资金开盘净流出198.59亿元，尾盘净流出51.6亿元，全天净流出213.07亿元。 | | | 沪深两市最近五个交易日主力资金流向情况(亿元) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | | 净流入金额 开盘净流入 | 尾盘净流入 | 超大单净买入 | | 2026-1-12 | -213.07 | -198.59 | -51. 60 | 53. 33 | | 2026-1-9 | -298.04 | -164. 63 | 1.02 | -16. 77 | | 2026-1-8 | -374. 35 | -163. 14 | -6. 58 | -144. 92 | | 2026-1-7 | -471.98 | -191.26 | 8. 31 | -213. ...

Group 1 - Public fund institutions accelerated their research activities in early 2026, with 141 institutions participating in A-share research, covering 111 stocks across 24 industries, totaling 673 research instances, significantly higher than the usual weekly level [1][3] - Chaojie Co., Ltd. received the highest attention with 48 research instances from 43 public fund institutions, and 5 institutions conducted follow-up research. The company focuses on precision fasteners for the automotive industry and is also involved in aerospace and electronics [1][2] - Aipeng Medical was the second most researched stock with 41 instances, focusing on pain management and innovative fields like brain-machine interfaces, providing smart medical devices and solutions [1][2] Group 2 - The computer industry had two companies in the top ten for research instances: Entropy Technology with 28 instances and Dineike with 17 instances. Entropy focuses on smart spaces and digital identity authentication, while Dineike specializes in smart community and hospital solutions [2][3] - The pharmaceutical and biological sector had the highest research instances at 89, covering 8 stocks, while the machinery and electronics sectors had 17 stocks each, with research instances of 85 and 62 respectively [3][4] - Other notable companies in the top ten for research instances included Guanglian Aviation (38), Zhejiang Mining (21), Hengyi Petrochemical (21), Shunhao Co., Ltd. (19), Caizhi Co., Ltd. (18), and Yiwang Yichuang (17) [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "strongly recommend" rating for several companies in the e-commerce and tourism sectors, including Alibaba, Pinduoduo, JD Group, and Meituan, indicating a positive outlook for their future performance [17][20]. Core Insights - The restaurant and tourism sector index increased by 2.54%, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index (up 2.79%) and the ChiNext Index (up 3.89%). In contrast, the retail sector index rose by 4.43%, outperforming both indices [7][19]. - E-commerce companies are expected to see stable profit growth, with Alibaba's cloud business projected to grow significantly due to high demand in the AI cloud market [17][20]. - The local lifestyle sector, particularly Meituan, is viewed as having long-term competitive advantages despite short-term disruptions from competition [17]. - The travel sector is anticipated to maintain high growth, with recommendations for companies involved in leisure travel and outbound tourism, as well as related transportation and hotel services [17][20]. Summary by Sections Restaurant and Tourism Sector - The top five performing stocks in the restaurant and tourism sector this week included Guomai Culture (+11.23%), Qujiang Cultural Tourism (+4.72%), and Dalian Shengya (+4.39) [9][12]. - The report highlights the ongoing recovery in domestic travel demand since Q3 2025, with Ctrip's international business continuing to show strong growth [17][20]. E-commerce Sector - The report emphasizes the undervaluation of leading e-commerce companies, recommending Alibaba, Pinduoduo, JD Group, and Vipshop for their growth potential and market positioning [17][20]. - Pinduoduo's advertising revenue growth was slightly below expectations, but profits exceeded forecasts, indicating a positive long-term outlook [20]. Local Lifestyle and Travel - Meituan's competitive position remains strong despite recent challenges, with a focus on high-value users and operational efficiency [17]. - The report suggests that the travel industry will continue to thrive, with a focus on companies like Ctrip that are well-positioned for growth in international markets [17][20]. Retail Sector - The retail sector is seeing a shift towards quality retail, with companies like Yonghui Supermarket adapting their strategies to enhance consumer trust and service quality [17][20]. - The report recommends focusing on companies that are successfully navigating the changing retail landscape, such as Yonghui and others that emphasize quality and service [17].

Core Viewpoint - The retail sector is experiencing a significant boost, driven by government policies aimed at enhancing consumer spending and stimulating the economy, particularly in the lead-up to the traditional Chinese New Year [1] Group 1: Government Initiatives - The National Business Work Conference held on January 10-11 emphasized the need to accelerate the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption and to unleash the potential of service consumption [1] - Policies to optimize the implementation of trade-in programs for consumer goods are being promoted to expand and upgrade product consumption [1] - The government aims to create an international consumption environment and develop digital, green, and health-oriented consumption to invigorate spending in lower-tier markets [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Retail stocks such as Juran Smart Home, Jiajiayue, and Sanjiang Shopping have seen significant gains, with some reaching their daily limit, indicating strong market sentiment [1] - The recent policy measures have led to a notable increase in market enthusiasm, as evidenced by the performance of retail and dining sectors, which are benefiting from various promotional activities [1] - The combination of top-level policy guidance and local promotional efforts is expected to enhance consumer willingness to spend during the upcoming festive season [1] Group 3: Economic Outlook - Analysts from Xiangcai Securities noted that since December 2025, there has been a marked increase in policy efforts to boost consumption, transitioning from isolated stimulus measures to a coordinated approach involving business and finance [1] - Local governments are actively launching various consumer promotion measures, such as issuing consumption vouchers and organizing cultural tourism events, to directly stimulate retail and large-scale consumption [1] - The convergence of favorable policies, improved fundamental expectations, and positive market sentiment is creating structural opportunities in the commercial retail sector [1]

公司发布的三季报数据显示，前三季度公司共实现营业收入14.09亿元，同比增长16.20%，实现净利润 4.16亿元，同比增长16.38%，基本每股收益为1.3123元，加权平均净资产收益率15.82%。（数据宝） （文章来源：证券时报网） 焦点科技股价创出历史新高，截至9:43，该股上涨6.72%，股价报56.85元，成交量955.19万股，成交金 额5.34亿元，换手率4.72%，该股最新A股总市值达180.35亿元，该股A股流通市值115.02亿元。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，焦点科技所属的商贸零售行业，目前整体涨幅为0.33%，行业内，目前股价 上涨的有54只，涨幅居前的有壹网壹创、茂业商业、三江购物等，涨幅分别为11.49%、10.01%、 7.21%。股价下跌的有34只，跌幅居前的有新迅达、锦和商管、武商集团等，跌幅分别为5.47%、 2.79%、2.61%。 ...

公司发布的三季报数据显示，前三季度公司共实现营业收入10.21亿元，同比增长26.34%，实现净利润 7961.68万元，同比增长10.22%，基本每股收益为0.8604元，加权平均净资产收益率5.47%。（数据宝） （文章来源：证券时报网） 两融数据显示，该股最新（1月9日）两融余额为1.97亿元，其中，融资余额为1.97亿元，近10日减少 3447.47万元，环比下降14.91%。 青木科技股价创出历史新高，截至9:38，该股上涨6.55%，股价报89.78元，成交量307.02万股，成交金 额2.75亿元，换手率4.70%，该股最新A股总市值达83.08亿元，该股A股流通市值58.69亿元。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，青木科技所属的商贸零售行业，目前整体涨幅为0.35%，行业内，目前股价 上涨的有52只，涨幅居前的有壹网壹创、茂业商业、青木科技等，涨幅分别为11.41%、9.01%、 6.55%。股价下跌的有38只，跌幅居前的有新迅达、凯瑞德、锦和商管等，跌幅分别为3.44%、2.20%、 2.09%。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the launch of a new round of national subsidies for consumer goods, with a total of 62.5 billion yuan allocated to support the "trade-in" policy, aimed at boosting consumption during peak seasons like New Year's and Spring Festival [1] - The 2026 national subsidy program has optimized the range and standards of subsidies compared to 2025, adding smart glasses to the digital product category and focusing on "high-efficiency" appliances in the home appliance category [1] - The "trade-in" policy from 2024 to 2025 led to a significant increase in consumer goods sales, reaching 3.92 trillion yuan and benefiting 494 million consumers [1] Group 2 - The optional consumer ETF (562580.SH) is expected to benefit significantly from the continuation of the national subsidy policy, with a focus on sectors such as automobiles (46%) and home appliances (34%) [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the optional consumer ETF include major companies like Midea Group, BYD, Gree Electric, and Haier Smart Home, indicating strong potential for growth in these sectors [2] - The index valuation PE-TTM stands at 23.47 times, which is in the 38.04% percentile over the past decade, suggesting a relatively attractive investment opportunity [2]

Group 1 - The current A-share market ecosystem is undergoing systematic restructuring, with a solid foundation for a "long bull, slow bull" market being established. The strategic position of the capital market has significantly improved, and the institutional framework is becoming more refined, providing a solid guarantee for stable market operations [5][14] - The "New Nine Articles" are promoting a transformation of the market from being financing-led to a balanced focus on both financing and investment, leading to continuous improvements in the quality of listed companies and investor protection [5] - The profitability of core assets is showing signs of a turning point, with both technology and traditional sectors presenting structural opportunities, and the matching of valuation and profitability is improving [5] Group 2 - The spring market is expected to gradually unfold, supported by factors that have driven previous market activity, including liquidity factors such as margin trading and insurance capital, which are anticipated to continue into January [6] - The macroeconomic environment, including the previous appreciation of the RMB, is creating a favorable atmosphere for liquidity and risk appetite, with potential catalysts such as policy adjustments and improvements in fundamental data expected in January [6] - After a two-month earnings window, listed companies will once again face fundamental verification as they enter the earnings forecast disclosure window in January [6] Group 3 - A-share market is expected to maintain an upward trend, with structural inflows of incremental funds anticipated in January, supported by the appreciation of the RMB and foreign capital positioning at the year-end [7] - Market sentiment appears slightly subdued, with industry preferences concentrated in sectors such as non-ferrous metals and defense, suggesting that investors should focus on large-cap styles and policy-related industry opportunities [7] Group 4 - The commercial aerospace industry is expected to enter a period of explosive growth, with the current phase being the initial stage of large-scale infrastructure development, accelerating towards commercial applications [13] - The "Space Power" goal is clearly defined, with national strategic support guiding the industry, and the low-orbit satellite internet constellation is set to begin high-density networking by 2025, marking a critical window for large-scale networking from 2025 to 2027 [13] Group 5 - A weak dollar cycle is expected to boost the performance of A/H shares, as it drives domestic exports and improves corporate profits, with global liquidity easing valuations and funds favoring high-growth emerging markets [14] - Structural improvements in sectors such as technology and domestic demand are anticipated to benefit from corporate profit recovery, leading to a rebound in these areas [14]